Mid-Range Game 29: A Midsummer Night with No Moon

[Steeldancer]

I should probably post this- I currently suspect Orlok of being the Cthaeh. Just a gut feeling right now. 
Interestingly, my expertise at being chaotic neutral should actually be helpful here. I know how to think like one. Look out, Cthaeh. Steeldancer is Jealous and coming to get you (in 2 days. As I said, I won't be on at all tomorrow until very late at night). 

[Snipexe]

 @Alvron Did you not notice the fact that I defended Rae right before that. Based on what had been said, I had reason to believe that Rae was village. So I hoped to use my vote change to achieve two things. First because I felt bad for Elendera, for kind of picking on her, and secondly, to try to get her vote off Rae, which worked. I voted for steel because he seemed ok with death, and I’d rather not lynch anyone who really wanted to play.

[Eternum]

Everyone really wants to play, I think. I can understand Steel's nonchalance, because it's how I act too when I'm getting lynched. He defended himself, but what's the point in going the step further when it's obvious you're being lynched, eh?  

@Walin Everybody got that message. Full cipher is BHUSZ JIRQE ILRME, for those that don't want to go back to their PMs to check. I'm too lazy to try deciphering it, but I have suspicions regarding what it might mean.

Encanis.. apparently he's difficult to "banish", but let's look at this in game terms. I suspect that just means he has two lives, to be honest. We can't be expected to strap him to an iron wheel, throw him in a pit and burn him alive, especially since Tehlu himself did that one 

[Walin]

I was thinking that the cipher was different for each person; thanks for proving me wrong. It appears that either we have to decode this ourselves, or someone of the elims have the key. Or a secret role, like the children--but then, shouldn't the code be in playground script?

Anyways, I think I'm going to put a placeholder vote on Steeldancer because he's GMing soon and probably won't want to be busy with both things. I don't have real suspicions yet, but if I do get any, I'll move my vote off of Steel. And @Steeldancer, if you actually don't want to die before your LG, let me know. I'll move my placeholder vote back onto me, and hopefully my vote won't be nullified again.

And I can't vote on the GM without some kind of secret role, so no freeing Randuir from simultaneously playing and GM'ing either.

-------------------------

Nelden did something interesting, but then he forgot about it. So he had no third-person RP for you today. I probably shouldn't switch around perspectives so much, it's getting Nelden confused. He could lose his conductor stick if he gets too distracted, so I'm gonna stop giving any more sentences to you.

But not phrases. Nelden at the campfire, scared about getting killed. Being suspicious about the others, but not able to accuse, Nelden could, at the fire. If the Cthaeh made more blue flames, death. If the Skindancers skindanced, confusion. Coupled with, confusion could cause clandestine colored combustion, cinder-ing citizens--Cthaeh containing copious confidence.

[Fifth Scholar]

This thread is looking dead. 

I tried to decipher that and ended up just wasting a bunch of time. Going back and reading through today, I think four people voted?? At this rate only people actually offering opinions will be left thanks to the filter. I realize I haven’t voted yet either but I’ll hopefully fix that soon. 

I’m curious as to @Eternum’s “suspicions” about the message we received. Care to elaborate?

Young Bard: 

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Huh. Excellent. Good thing I wasn't around at rollover - I would have likely voted to lynch Steel over Elandara. (Well played, Elan - I didn't suspect you at all.)

Speaking of things that didn't happen at rollover - there's no kill, which is strange - Drake, if there'd been a kill and it had been protected, would it have been announced in the write-up? In the OoA, kills are before the lynch, so that's not an explanation. It's possible some of the Eliminators are borderline inactive, so I'm going to place a poke vote on Droughtbringer, who didn't post or vote last cycle. Even if they're not an Eliminator, it would be good to hear them post more about the game so far, and any reads they have.

Also, we can now, presumably, trust that Namer messages come from Namers, and not from Cyphus, which is excellent - whoever the Namer was, can you confirm tonight you sent the message and not Cyphus before they died?

 No kill happened, as the rules say “the majority of protection powers will be distinguished from each other (paraphrasing slightly),” meaning protection is revealed in the writeup. Agree on the call for borderline inactives to join, though. Speaking of which, @Droughtbringer, you said 

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Sorry, I forgot that this game was running...

I will be finishing up what I'm doing now (shouldn't take more than an hour) then go through last cycles thread, and see what's up/

 

What are your conclusions based on your perusal of the thread? You said this seventeen hours ago (as of me writing this). 

Alvron: 

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Snipexe.  You took your vote off Elandera last cycle when it was tied with Rae and added it to Steel bring him into the tie instead.  Elandera then promptly took theirs off Rae leaving Steel as the lead lynchee.  Not long afterwards Rae added her vote to Steel making him the clear leader with double the number of votes anyone had.  Thankfully Eternum took his? vote off Steel and someone got Drought to vote resulting in a dead elim but I can't help but wonder if you and Elandera are teammates and planned the vote swing in a Doc.  The timing seems to fit together just a little too well.

This is a very good point, and Snip’s defense doesn’t make me feel much better about him. I’m not sure if I’ll vote on this yet, but this is something to consider.

Something else that seemed to fit together a bit too well was the way in which Elandera died. The Ciridae appears to have vote manipulation that can move a no-vote to a vote because no other ability in the game does that, and the Ciridae broke a “tied” lynch in favor of Elandera, when the lynch wasn’t tied going into the close of the cycle. Therefore, if we want to lynch someone without worrying about the Ciridae breaking a tie, we have to have a two-vote lead on someone going into the lynch to be sure they will die.

I want to say more, but am tired, so I’ll put my vote on Snipexe and hopefully come back to this later with a fresh mind. (Note that this is mostly a placeholder vote until I have more time to look over stuff.)

[Arrae]

The Ciridae is confirmed village and starts out with another troupe role, so I don't think they're likely to be involved in an elim plot. Besides, what sort of elims want to kill one of their own D1? The only way I can think for the Ciridae to be working with the elims was if they were possessed by a Skindancer, and I think the chances of that happening D1 is almost 0.

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

With Cyphus's death, the blue fire returned to it's familiar, comforting color. Now when Gaskana set her torches alight, only the heads of them burned. She juggled a trio of them in the air aimlessly, looking at the spot where Cyphus had fallen. Her mother had told her that demons feared cold iron and fire, and apparently copper blades did the job as well. Gaskana had only one of those things. Hopefully that would be enough, but even with Cyphus the fire wielder dead, she suspected more weaponry would be need. She resolved to ask Alev if she had any iron blades to spare.

1 hour ago, Walin said:

I'll move my placeholder vote back onto me, and hopefully my vote won't be nullified again.

Are you claiming to not be a Jester? There don't seem to be too many abilities capable of nullifying one's one vote; the two most likely alternatives seem to be that you're a singer who was roleblocked or that you were sympathetically linked to a Jester that set the weight of their own vote to zero.

19 hours ago, Arraenae said:

Looking back at C1:

The biggest lynch trains were on Elandera, Steel, and me. Unfortunately, I don't think the Steel train and the one on me will give us sure reads, since most of them formed before Elandera was put up for the lynch.

Elandera was up for the lynch before anyone voted for you or Steel, with votes on her from Bort and Snipexe. The lynch then went to Eternum before transferring to you and Steel. I do therefore think there is value in looking at those trains. Specifically, I'm going to vote for Fifth Scholar for now. Last cycle, he was the first player to defend Elandera and try to shift votes off of her. He also ended up almost saving her by voting for Steel after Eternum first posted.

17 hours ago, Fifth Scholar said:

I’m in support of the idea behind the PM chain, though I think routing everything to Orlok is probably our best bet, since if he has all the information he can vet it for its truthfulness and report all his findings to the thread. (Thought behind this is that false information could easily be spread by one source if it wasn’t checked or ratified by anyone.) This will give the village information as well as allowing Sithe to claim without fear to someone who’s mostly village-read. If our Sithe do begin dropping with alarming frequency, we know who to blame. (But Orlok seems village.)

I'm fairly sure the idea behind the PM chain is that the same information is disseminated among multiple players. Not only does this help preserve the secrecy of the Sithe, but it also ensures that if false information is shared with the thread, multiple people can call out the liar. As very probably not an elim, a lot of information could be routed through Orlok, but until/unless he's confirmed non-Cthaeh, it's best to not rely on him to be the sole source of information. 

[Fifth Scholar]

3 minutes ago, Arraenae said:

The Ciridae is confirmed village and starts out with another troupe role, so I don't think they're likely to be involved in an elim plot. Besides, what sort of elims want to kill one of their own D1? The only way I can think for the Ciridae to be working with the elims was if they were possessed by a Skindancer, and I think the chances of that happening D1 is almost 0.

Not thinking it was an elim plot, just saying that the Ciridae seems to have very good synergy, and if we don’t want to leave the lynch up to him we need a two vote lead.

[Eternum]

@Fifth Scholar (On mobile, did the mention wrong, now it's stuck up here. Oh well.)

Suspicion might not be the right word. I think I know what the cipher is, but I haven't decoded it yet.

I would also like to mention that a Lover can cast a vote for their partner, if the latter did not vote. That can be an explanation for Drought's vote.

[Fifth Scholar]

Just now, Eternum said:

@Fifth Scholar (On mobile, did the mention wrong, now it's stuck up here. Oh well.)

Suspicion might not be the right word. I think I know what the cipher is, but I haven't decoded it yet.

I would also like to mention that a Lover can cast a vote for their partner, if the latter did not vote. That can be an explanation for Drought's vote.

Okay, makes sense. I don’t really know about ciphers, I just messed around with anagrams before giving up. 

That’s a good point. I could see Drought’s lover partner being the Ciridae, and manipulating Drought’s vote to tie things and then finalize the lynch. 

3 minutes ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

With Cyphus's death, the blue fire returned to it's familiar, comforting color. Now when Gaskana set her torches alight, only the heads of them burned. She juggled a trio of them in the air aimlessly, looking at the spot where Cyphus had fallen. Her mother had told her that demons feared cold iron and fire, and apparently copper blades did the job as well. Gaskana had only one of those things. Hopefully that would be enough, but even with Cyphus the fire wielder dead, she suspected more weaponry would be need. She resolved to ask Alev if she had any iron blades to spare.

Are you claiming to not be a Jester? There don't seem to be too many abilities capable of nullifying one's one vote; the two most likely alternatives seem to be that you're a singer who was roleblocked or that you were sympathetically linked to a Jester that set the weight of their own vote to zero.

Elandera was up for the lynch before anyone voted for you or Steel, with votes on her from Bort and Snipexe. The lynch then went to Eternum before transferring to you and Steel. I do therefore think there is value in looking at those trains. Specifically, I'm going to vote for Fifth Scholar for now. Last cycle, he was the first player to defend Elandera and try to shift votes off of her. He also ended up almost saving her by voting for Steel after Eternum first posted.

I'm fairly sure the idea behind the PM chain is that the same information is disseminated among multiple players. Not only does this help preserve the secrecy of the Sithe, but it also ensures that if false information is shared with the thread, multiple people can call out the liar. As very probably not an elim, a lot of information could be routed through Orlok, but until/unless he's confirmed non-Cthaeh, it's best to not rely on him to be the sole source of information. 

Yeah I understand that does look bad...let me explain a bit. So me trying to take votes off Elandera wasn’t really because of her behavior, but because I saw her up for the lynch on grounds she couldn’t really defend against (not knowing not to insult tinkers, which she didn’t know because she hadn’t read KKC). So while I’m fine with joke-votes earlier in the cycle, I didn’t want to see Elandera lynched for such a silly reason, knowing how frustrating that might be, and still village-reading (or at least neutral-reading) her at the time. The fact that I was wrong is unfortunate, but not really alignment indicative if you look at the reasons for which I did it. 

Meanwhile, I believe my suspicions of Steel were perfectly legitimate (in fact I haven’t dropped them), which is borne out by Rae coming to the same conclusion as me at basically the same time. Meanwhile, my vote on Steel was the first and if I was actually trying to save Elandera I would have stuck it on a target with more votes at the time (Aonar/Drought/Rae). Nevertheless, nonwithstanding these points, your criticism of me is fair, as I likely do have the most connection to Elandera. I wish I could bring up more evidence without straight-up roleclaiming but I can’t, so I’ll just leave it there. 

Also, Cthaeh!Orlok would already know the information we’re passing him, and if he posts incorrect information the Sithe quickly correct and lynch him. So I’m not seeing the issue with Orlok as a hub of information, considering I was part of one of the chains that gave Orlok the info he posted inthread. 

[Arrae]

5 minutes ago, Fifth Scholar said:

Also, Cthaeh!Orlok would already know the information we’re passing him, and if he posts incorrect information the Sithe quickly correct and lynch him. So I’m not seeing the issue with Orlok as a hub of information, considering I was part of one of the chains that gave Orlok the info he posted inthread. 

Really, I think the real problem with that is that Orlok dislikes mayoring with a fiery passion, dating all the way back to his first few games of SE. Tragic story, from what I've heard. Though, maybe @Orlok Tsubodai should tell it himself

[Orlok Tsubodai]

I’d argue that I may as well be confirmed non-Cthaeh - what Cthaeh in their right mind would alienate an eliminator team by killing off one of their roles D1, particularly when the Cthaeh has more villagers than eliminators to kill to even the numbers out?

I’m no longer sure where to point to as the source of my dislike of mayoring, Rae, but Wilson’s influence on my early playstyle, and her experiences in LG4 were undoubtedly formative.

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

11 minutes ago, Fifth Scholar said:

Yeah I understand that does look bad...let me explain a bit. So me trying to take votes off Elandera wasn’t really because of her behavior, but because I saw her up for the lynch on grounds she couldn’t really defend against (not knowing not to insult tinkers, which she didn’t know because she hadn’t read KKC). So while I’m fine with joke-votes earlier in the cycle, I didn’t want to see Elandera lynched for such a silly reason, knowing how frustrating that might be, and still village-reading (or at least neutral-reading) her at the time. The fact that I was wrong is unfortunate, but not really alignment indicative if you look at the reasons for which I did it. 

Meanwhile, I believe my suspicions of Steel were perfectly legitimate (in fact I haven’t dropped them), which is borne out by Rae coming to the same conclusion as me at basically the same time. Meanwhile, my vote on Steel was the first and if I was actually trying to save Elandera I would have stuck it on a target with more votes at the time (Aonar/Drought/Rae). Nevertheless, nonwithstanding these points, your criticism of me is fair, as I likely do have the most connection to Elandera. I wish I could bring up more evidence without straight-up roleclaiming but I can’t, so I’ll just leave it there. 

Also, Cthaeh!Orlok would already know the information we’re passing him, and if he posts incorrect information the Sithe quickly correct and lynch him. So I’m not seeing the issue with Orlok as a hub of information, considering I was part of one of the chains that gave Orlok the info he posted inthread. 

I'm pretty sure Elandera has read the books, as her signup post was:

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This sounds incredible! I love the Kingkiller Chronicle. I'll join as Ahnya.

You also weren't the first to vote for Steeldancer; you voted for Eternum first and then switched to Steel when Eternum voted for Steel with his first post. I can accept that it would be odd for you to defend a teammate so early in the cycle when both votes on her were essentially pokes/filter avoiders. I'll go look at Phases 1 and 2 again.

Regarding Orlok, including him in the PM chains and having him post the information he receives is fine. When you said that the Sithe would start dying if Orlok turned out to be evil though, that sounded like you were suggesting we disregard the anonymous message and just have the Sithe collectively roleclaim to Orlok and tell him everything they know.

[Fifth Scholar]

8 minutes ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

I'm pretty sure Elandera has read the books, as her signup post was:

You also weren't the first to vote for Steeldancer; you voted for Eternum first and then switched to Steel when Eternum voted for Steel with his first post. I can accept that it would be odd for you to defend a teammate so early in the cycle when both votes on her were essentially pokes/filter avoiders. I'll go look at Phases 1 and 2 again.

Regarding Orlok, including him in the PM chains and having him post the information he receives is fine. When you said that the Sithe would start dying if Orlok turned out to be evil though, that sounded like you were suggesting we disregard the anonymous message and just have the Sithe collectively roleclaim to Orlok and tell him everything they know.

This is what I get for going off of memory. To be fair, I hadn’t really factored in Eternum’s vote when I voted for Steel, which is probably why I forgot about it >> still should’ve checked, sorry.

My general idea was that we should limit who handles the information, to avoid Eliminators altering, tampering with, gaining access to, and potentially simply halting the flow of information. While it’s likely unwise to put all our eggs in the Orlok basket, maybe having a few Sithe pass info to Steel (or just someone random to see what happens), Orlok is a good resource as an essentially cleared villager. And I am not suggesting roleclaims (that’s a more personal choice) but  passing of information to Orlok is certainly not something that would hurt us, if we truly believe he is cleared. Finally, we don’t have to abide by the exact terms of the anonymous message, as the person sending it did simply phrase it as a suggestion.

[Arinian]

I'm voting for Arinian, he surely bad guy.

[Steeldancer]

I can't see the countdown. So I will provide my thoughts. (Now that I have finished up at cedar point. it was disappointing). 
So, my suspect for Cthaeh is still Orlok. He hasn't disproved me in the PM he sent me. But, he did make the point that it would be odd for the Cthaeh to go after an elim the very first cycle. I wasn't planning on voting on him yet, and due to that argument, I would rather not vote on him this cycle. But I CAN provide some thoughts on what the Cthaeh might try to play like. 
When I play chaotic neutral roles, my play is usually to play quiet, but village as possible. There's also a lot of desperate strategization on my part, but that's probably just me. And the last thing- never presume someone is villager. That is what allowed me to thrive as a chaotic neutral before. It's why I'm wary of Orlok, and will be wary of any player that is supposedly village. 

[Snipexe]

So I am on a plane that’s about to take off, and the flight is 10 hours, so I can’t really explain my vote, but fifth

ill try to explain my vote next cycle

[Alvron]

2 hours ago, Orlok Tsubodai said:

I’d argue that I may as well be confirmed non-Cthaeh - what Cthaeh in their right mind would alienate an eliminator team by killing off one of their roles D1, particularly when the Cthaeh has more villagers than eliminators to kill to even the numbers out?

A smart Cthaeh would.  Let's say Orlok is the Cthaeh.  (I don't think he is but just roll with it.)  Since he voted on a now proven dead Elim, he is very unlikely to be lynched.  The Cthaeh is also unkillable at night so as it stands, a Orlok-Cthaeh is in prime position to win.  If the Elims want to out him, they would first have to out themselves which opens them up to being lynched.  After all, who else would want Orlok dead if not Elim?  Same with any scanner role, they make themselves targets for the Elims if they try.

I would also point out that giving all the information to any one person, Orlok included, is not a good idea.  Firstly, mayoring is just bad and not something we want to encourage here.  Secondly, if I read the rules right, there is an alignment changing role on the Elim team.  If you look at the roles/rules, you will note that while the Lovers are  guaranteed to possess the same alignment at the start of the game, there is also part that says "If lovers are of opposite alignment, they gain the win condition of the Cthaeh."  To me that means alignment can change, not just for Lovers but any role.  The only role I can see that can do that is Encanis.  It is the only role we know nothing about.  Now I haven't read the books so I don't know what Encanis can do but I'm sure someone here can fill us in.

[Arrae]

I looked up rhinna flowers in the KKC wiki. They're flowers grown on the tree of the Cthaeh that can heal. Some people in the comments section speculated that they have something to do with the Chandrian and change people, so maybe the rhinna flowers can change alignment?

Exact comments inside the spoiler:

Spoiler

 

[Wonko the Sane]

1 hour ago, Eternum said:

I would also like to mention that a Lover can cast a vote for their partner, if the latter did not vote. That can be an explanation for Drought's vote.

*sigh* Well, if the Elims hadn't thought of this yet, they certainly have now. Can we get some protection on Drought, please? I'm sure he looks like a very attractive two-for-one kill, now.

Regarding the PM Chain: The entire point of this is to make it so that we can publicly reveal the information without having to trust anyone whatsoever. The point of the numbering system is to make it so that no one except the original Sithe can be certain where it started. Then, once the origin is sufficiently concealed, we can publicly reveal the information to the entire thread. We can choose to trust Orlok -- and I agree, we'd almost certainly be vindicated -- but why? Why introduce more variables?

As to my suspicions, I'm still baffled as to why @Aonar Faileas continues to absolutely refuse our calls for him to post something. At this point, though, I'm more confused than suspicious; I can't see what he hopes to gain right now, no matter what alignment he is.

Devotary is raising some flags by drilling into Fifth for understandably trying to prevent joke votes from winning the lynch; I felt the same way that he did. We lynched Elandera largely by luck; the only vote on her in the entire cycle that was legitimately justified was Orlok's. It seems to me as though he is trying to deflect attention from Snipexe, by offering up someone else as the almost-savior of Elandera. And now, as I write this, Snipexe has just jumped on the lifeline Devotary is throwing him.

I'm putting my vote on Devotary, though I'd also be okay with lynching Snipexe, and will switch if it comes down to Snipexe or someone else. In either case, if they turn out to be Elim, I strongly believe the next lynch should be on the other. If it turns out that Snipexe is not an Elim, I'll take another look at Fifth, but for now, Snipexe seems far more likely.

13 minutes ago, Alvron said:

\Secondly, if I read the rules right, there is an alignment changing role on the Elim team.  If you look at the roles/rules, you will not that while the Lovers are  guaranteed to possess the same alignment at the start of the game, there is also part that says "If lovers are of opposite alignment, they gain the win condition of the Cthaeh."  To me that means alignment can change not just for Lovers but any role.  The only role I can see that can do that is Encanis.  It is the only role we know nothing about.  Now I haven't read the books so I don't know what Encanis can do but I'm sure someone here can fill us in.

8 minutes ago, Arraenae said:

I looked up rhinna flowers in the KKC wiki. They're flowers grown on the tree of the Cthaeh that can heal. Some people in the comments section speculated that they have something to do with the Chandrian and change people, so maybe the rhinna flowers can change alignment?

Both of these are reasonable. The reasoning is spoilery, though, especially in Encanis's case, so I'm putting them in spoilers.

Encanis:

Spoiler

Technically, Encanis, the lord of all demons according the Tehlin religion, is probably not real (a variety of sources, including many in the know about things like the Fae, have asserted that there are no such things as demons). However, a number of details in the tales about him suggest that he may be based on the leader of the Chandrian, Haliax (whose true name is Alaxel). Further, other stories indicate that Haliax was once the legendary figure Lanre, who turned the guardians of six of the great cities of the Ergen Empire and led them to destroy those cities (and, possibly, to eventually become the Chandrian). So, assuming the leading theories about all this are true, "Encanis" does have a history of leading people astray.

Cthaeh:

Spoiler

I'm not sure about the flowers, specifically, but making people into forces for evil is what the Cthaeh does. It twists the minds of those it speaks to, using its absolute omniscience to perfectly predict how they will react to what it says, and thus use them as unwitting pawns for devastating malice. Those who speak to the Cthaeh don't turn evil per se, but they nevertheless go on to start wars, end civilizations, and tear worlds asunder. The above atrocity committed by "Encanis"? Reliable sources indicate that he spoke to the Cthaeh before he did that. So yeah, I can believe that the Cthaeh would have the power to turn someone evil.

 

All that said, I don't think that we should rule out the possibility that there *is* no conversion mechanic, and this is just the GMs covering their bases in case they wanted to introduce one. We don't appear to have heard anything about it from our Sithe informants, after all.

[Fifth Scholar]

To get a sense for Orlok playing as a bluffing Eliminator, I read back through QF27, which didn’t really help with my Orlok paranoia, nor my current analysis of him. There aren’t any significant parallels I can draw between that Orlok and this one, so I’m still reading Orlok as village, especially given his helpfulness and general commentary. 

Actually, there might be one: 

2 hours ago, Orlok Tsubodai said:

I’d argue that I may as well be confirmed non-Cthaeh - what Cthaeh in their right mind would alienate an eliminator team by killing off one of their roles D1, particularly when the Cthaeh has more villagers than eliminators to kill to even the numbers out?

So my main issue with this is the assumption that the Cthaeh *would* act a certain way. I’m not sure I particularly like this logic, because each person is going to play being a certain role a different way. This is (supposedly) the way Orlok would play things, but Alv pointed out another way to go about it, and I could mention various others, I’m sure. There isn’t a right/wrong way of playing a certain role that instantly disproves you from being it by just taking one action. I’m actually closer to Alv’s view of things here, as the Cthaeh has no particular incentive to work alongside the elim team to the exclusion of all else. So Orlok bringing this up does not clear him in my eyes from being Cthaeh, and reminds me of similar posts of his from QF27:

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Personally, I think that the eliminators thought that a guard was unlikely to protect me two cycles running, and sought to take advantage of it. Whilst you clearly shouldn't take my word for it, I'd point out that the loss of two kills, and degree of scrutiny that brings upon me would be a bizarre move for an eliminator team when the first attack on me would have sufficed, were it a WGG

 

Quote

It's an awful lot of work for the eliminator team to put me in a position of tentative trust, and at the cost of two kills. Adding a level of recursion to it doesn't really deliver a benefit, and costs a kill.

(For reference (thinking of newer players), Orlok was an Eliminator in QF27 and pulled one of the most dastardly moves in SE history, getting the Eliminator team to attack and save him twice. The sheer unlikelihood of this led to the village universally trusting him, and these posts are Orlok responding to his only opponent. This was particularly egregious considering his name was literally a variant of Sauron’s, the exact variant he’d used to deceive the Elves before, in fact. But I digress)

So yeah. Despite all this, I still maintain a strong trust of Orlok, though it’s mitigated by his recent statement. I do think that he is in no way an Eliminator, but I would definitely not be surprised post game if he flips as such, and wouldn’t put a D1 bus of a teammate behind him just to pick up trust reads. But as I’ve said repeatedly, I maintain a strong village read on him, a lot of which is coming from our PM. 

I realize that I (think I) am currently leading in votes once I retract from Snipexe. While I don’t appreciate his vote on me and certainly don’t like his connection to Elandera (though I acknowledge mine is fairly large as well), he did say he would be leaving and unable to respond, so my vote is currently not constructive at all. In addition, while his defense isn’t rock hard, it is believable, and I’d rather not tunnel if I don’t have to. 

I’m really tempted to join Wonko’s Devotary vote out of both self-preservation, retaliation, and a not-insignificant amount of paranoia. However, I recognize Devotary’s logic, which is solid and grounded in reason, and wouldn’t like to vote her without a better reason. However however, both Wonko and Orlok (in PM) suspect her, and I kinda feel like a few comments of mine were being misrepresented in her accusation of me. But she still seems village...

...eh, storm it. Devotary of Spontaneity. Not my favorite vote, and if I had time I’d go and make another target, but I don’t. I do hope to analyse Bard and Eternum soon, however. 

35 minutes ago, Wonko the Sane said:

Regarding the PM Chain: The entire point of this is to make it so that we can publicly reveal the information without having to trust anyone whatsoever. The point of the numbering system is to make it so that no one except the original Sithe can be certain where it started. Then, once the origin is sufficiently concealed, we can publicly reveal the information to the entire thread. We can choose to trust Orlok -- and I agree, we'd almost certainly be vindicated -- but why? Why introduce more variables?

The way I see it, the more untested people we allow information to get into the hands of, the more variables we introduce and the more information is lost/misrepresented, but that’s my view. I certainly understand where you’re coming from, and should I receive information I will not directly route it to Orlok, but pass it on elsewhere. 

I would speculate that any conversion mechanic would be in the hands of the Cthaeh, but that’s just speculation. The rhinna flowers might stop a lynch in exchange for an alignment swap, or something like that. I’m not sure, and while such speculation is fun to participate in it does distract from the main discussion, so I’m not going to worry about it too much. 

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

1 hour ago, Wonko the Sane said:

Devotary is raising some flags by drilling into Fifth for understandably trying to prevent joke votes from winning the lynch; I felt the same way that he did. We lynched Elandera largely by luck; the only vote on her in the entire cycle that was legitimately justified was Orlok's. It seems to me as though he is trying to deflect attention from Snipexe, by offering up someone else as the almost-savior of Elandera. And now, as I write this, Snipexe has just jumped on the lifeline Devotary is throwing him.

I'm putting my vote on Devotary, though I'd also be okay with lynching Snipexe, and will switch if it comes down to Snipexe or someone else. In either case, if they turn out to be Elim, I strongly believe the next lynch should be on the other. If it turns out that Snipexe is not an Elim, I'll take another look at Fifth, but for now, Snipexe seems far more likely.

It looks like you're saying here that you would vote for Snipexe over anyone else in a close vote, then proceed to vote on me. Why is that? If you think Fifth is village and that Snipexe and I are both elims, why would you vote on me as opposed to voting for Snipexe, the latter option protecting Fifth in the process? 

29 minutes ago, Fifth Scholar said:

I’m really tempted to join Wonko’s Devotary vote out of both self-preservation, retaliation, and a not-insignificant amount of paranoia. However, I recognize Devotary’s logic, which is solid and grounded in reason, and wouldn’t like to vote her without a better reason. However however, both Wonko and Orlok (in PM) suspect her, and I kinda feel like a few comments of mine were being misrepresented in her accusation of me. But she still seems village...

...eh, storm it. Devotary of Spontaneity. Not my favorite vote, and if I had time I’d go and make another target, but I don’t. I do hope to analyse Bard and Eternum soon, however. 

To be sure, I did misrepresent some of your comments, notably the one pertaining to the flow of secret information. Your more recent explanations clear up any troublesome aspects of that, so Fifth Scholar. Your defense of Elandera is a lot less noteworthy considering that you seemingly signed off for the cycle before Orlok brought up valid suspicions against Elandera, and I also don't like that Snipexe voted for you without citing a reason. Time to go look for another place to put my vote.

 

 

[xinoehp512]

Steeldancer. I don't know what else to do right now...

[Alvron]

Vote Tally:
Drought (1): Bard
Itiah (1): Bort
Snipexe (1): Alv, Fifth
Steel (2): Walin, Xinoehp
Fifth (1): Devotary, Snipexe
Ari (1): Ari
Devotary (2): Wonko, Fifth

Huh, I thought there were more votes than that.  Get voting people!  6.5 hours left!

[Steeldancer]

Great. I'm going to get lynched and I've actually tried to be helpful. 
Is it bad that I have a little Alv voice asking me to vote so we get a 3-way tie???