Quick Fix Game 31: <MISSING VARIABLE>

[Eternum]

That I did not expect.

More thoughts to come once I get off the bus.

[DeTess]

Ladies, and Gentlemen, I'd like to introduce to you:

(please don't leave me hanging for too long guys, that would get embarrassing  )

[Elandera]

Rayda: the Steward!

[Young Bard]

And Hal: The Lover!

A pleasure to make your acquaintance.

(For the record, the three of us have been talking in PM's since Rand claimed, and decided now that we're close to the late game, it would be best to claim and narrow down the list of possible Sophies to 4 people.)

[Eternum]

So that narrows it all down to Crimsn, Devotary, Drought and me.

[DeTess]

So, for those keeping track, the possible Sophies are:

1. DroughtBringer (Player List)
2. Eternum (x/0)
3. Devotary (Player4.exe)
4. CrimsnWolf (O7npC)

I think we can exclude devotary from being Sophie, so that'd leave Drought, Crimsn and Eternum. Unfortunately, Sophie did try to convert this round (one attempt bounced of Young Bard), so that means Sophie had three lives, not two, and we can't rule out hat Devotary is now a convert (either that or the conversion as a whole failed).

edit: So, one of Drought, Crimsn and eternum is likely Sophie. It's noteworthy that Elenion, after the lynch on me fell through, promptly moved his vote to Drought. He also made no attempts to use the 'this is too easy' approach to get the lynch off drought during the extension. Though this would have been somewhat risky if it didn't work, as it would have made Elenion look rather suspicious if Drought was an elim, it still makes me suspect Drought somewhat less.

Eternum and Crimsn are both possible for Sophie, but of the two right now I'm slightly more suspicious of Crimsn. I've just got far less to look at from her posts, but she seemed to be basically following along with whoever had the most lynch votes during C1 and C2, which does make me somewhat suspicious. She did mention some suspicion of Elenion, who would have been Sophie!Crimsn's convert, but she didn't act on it in any way,s o that;s somewhat NAI right now.

However, Crimsn did have a very good excuse for why she hadn't been following along with the thread before, and I believe she was around in time to tip the lynch back towards Drought, though with her stated suspicion of Elenion that would have looked very odd. On the other hand, she didn't tip it against Elenion either.

I'd really like to hear everyone else's thoughts on these four.

btw, @A Joe in the Bush, who is protected from the conversion this cycle?

Edited April 19, 2018 by randuir
grammar

[Young Bard]

Personally, I believe that Crimsn is the most likely Sophie right now, through process of Elimination.

1. Drought: Elenion seemed happy to lynch Drought - he firmed up the vote on Drought last cycle, where I think they'd vote on another candidate if Drought were an Elim buddy.

2. Eternum: They've been fairly absent this game, and has admitted they weren't really active enough to send in order C1. If they were Sophie, I'd have expected them to prioritise the game more.

3. Devotary: Basically everyone agrees that Devotary is almost definitely not Sophie. However, if Crimsn is proven to be Sophie after the lynch today and the game doesn't end, Devotary seems like the most likely candidate for being a convert over someone who's been close to being lynched twice and a borderline inactive.

4. Crimsn: I initially had a village read on Crimsn at the end of Cycle 1 with her accidental vote on Orlok - I thought an Eliminator Crimsn would have been slightly more careful. But having narrowed down the list of players to just these four, I think Crimsn is by far the most likely candidate to be Sophie.

EDIT: Gah. I missed Rand's edit (I kept an eye on the thread, left, and then came back and thought nothing had changed), where they outline almost exactly the same thoughts and analysis as I did. Oops.

Edited April 19, 2018 by Young Bard

[A Joe in the Bush]

Clarification time!

Due to killing the first cycle, when supposedly unable to, Sophie has lost the ability to commit suicide via converting.

 

[Young Bard]

1 hour ago, A Joe in the Bush said:

Clarification time!

Due to killing the first cycle, when supposedly unable to, Sophie has lost the ability to commit suicide via converting.

Huh. When is this relevant from, out of interest? If Sophie had tried to commit suicide via converting last night, would that action have passed, or is that a clarification that is being applied this cycle?

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

@Young Bard, I suppose you were the one to remove a vote from Drought?

@A Joe in the Bush, does the action order make it possible for Elenion to have been converted the same cycle he died? If not, then that essentially clears Drought as Sophie. It doesn't stop him from being a convert, but as Crimsn is a possible Sophie and a possible convert, we should lynch her first.

A Sophie with three lives and the ability to suicide and the ability to kill on her own seems excessive for a twelve player game. With the rule change, we have a good chance of winning. We have at worst a 5-2 advantage, with three villagers having safe roles. One of those three will probably be attacked. We have a knight who can block one attack. The upgraded version of the knight isn't really better than the original at this point.The steward and the lover have vote manipulation, with the steward being better than the lover in this regard. The upgraded steward can scan for converts, while the upgraded lover can block actions, including kills. It's all up to Randuir.this cycle.

@Droughtbringer, please come back if you aren't evil.

 

[Young Bard]

3 minutes ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

@Young Bard, I suppose you were the one to remove a vote from Drought?

I was, yes.

[DeTess]

38 minutes ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

@A Joe in the Bush, does the action order make it possible for Elenion to have been converted the same cycle he died? If not, then that essentially clears Drought as Sophie. It doesn't stop him from being a convert, but as Crimsn is a possible Sophie and a possible convert, we should lynch her first.

Sophie couldn't convert someone with her last life if she also got lynched that cycle(now she just can't convert with her last life), so I assume the lynch happens before everything else.

@Eternum, @Crimsn-Wolf, please share your opinions as well. This game hasn't been decided yet and we need everyone who can to  pitch in to help solve the game (this obviously goes fro Drought too).

Edited April 19, 2018 by randuir

[Elandera]

Conversion is the last action in the order, so Elenion couldn't have been converted right before he died.

I'll place my vote on Crimsn.

[xxGaea]

Just popping in to say I will respond and post my thoughts once I get home from work. My lunch break is going to be ending soon, so I don't have time to post anything more than this now. Just, I am here, and I will elaborate and post more thoughts in a few more hours.

[Droughtbringer]

Why is Crimsn the most likely? I don't see much to convict crimsn of anything... Or well, really convict anyone of anything. But is there a reason that we are so focused on Crimsn?

Crimsn: I don't see much reason to lynch you, you have commented a bit, but haven't really posted much in the way of anything.

Eternum: You have been active, and encouraging discussion. You have made a few good comments, and I get a slight village read from you.

Devotary: You have been really active, and encouraging me to come back. Certainly a village read on you.

So, going through I think that Crimsn is the best to lynch, out of the subjects, but most people haven't specified why they want to lynch Crimsn. So until that happens, I am against the lynch, on principal. The next on my suspicion list would be me; I have not posted nearly enough, but I hate it when people vote on themselves, so I'll be moving my vote to Eternum

[Elandera]

My reasoninging for a Crimsn lynch is mostly by process of elimination.

Devotary is the least likely to be Sophie based on their efforts to spur discussion and offer suggestions to protect village and role-holders.

I'm still unsure about Eternum, and consider them a likely convert, but unlikely Sophie. I don't recall them posting at all the first day (and from what I understand, that's frowned upon as an elim). I'd rather take out Sophie this turn than a convert.

Drought is second on my list for likely Sophie. Of Drought, Eternum and Crimsn, they seem to be most active. But they've also done little to counter lynch efforts against them (which has happened pretty much every round). That could be Sophie wanting to avoid drawing too much attention. But Elenion, a confirmed Melhi bot, had his vote on Drought. I can't see that being a good idea when Drought had been under serious threat until the round was extended.

Crimsn's votes are what make me suspicious of them. While it could be that they weren't able to spend a lot of time reading through the thread before voting, their votes on the first two cycles were last minute. The first was very strange, and made most discount Crimsn as being Sophie. It was either an honest mistake, or a very crafty elim move. I'm now leaning towards the latter.

[Eternum]

At this point I'm just gonna use PoE.

1. I'd rather not lynch myself.

2. Devotary is universally regarded as not-sophie, possibly a convert however.

3. Lynching Drought right now wouldn't make much sense, because he hasn't said much at all.

4. Crimsn has been more active than Drought, though not by far, and there's more there that implicates her than anyone else at the chopping block.

@Elandera, your post showed up while I was typing. If Drought is elim, then Len's vote could have been an attempt at bussing? Though that's strenuous at best.

 

Edited April 20, 2018 by Eternum
Forgot my vote

[Elandera]

11 minutes ago, Eternum said:

 

@Elandera, your post showed up while I was typing. If Drought is elim, then Len's vote could have been an attempt at bussing? Though that's strenuous at best.

 

It could have been. Len did defend Drought later, but never changed his vote. Granted, by that time it was starting to shift toward Len.

[xxGaea]

So, I'm not entirely certain how to defend myself at this point, because I played this game very stupidly. I was wanting to get back into SE'ing, and thought a QF would be a good way to go about doing it. There's been a lot going on between school, work, and life in general, so my attention has been a bit split. The voting on Orlok day one really was an honest mistake--even though it would be amazing to say that I had a meticulous plan all along.  At least my suspicion of Elenion was right, so that's neat. Although, my reason for suspicion was false, which is amusing. Based on gut-reads alone, I would say that Eternum is the next person I am suspicious of, without much to really back my claim up. I suppose his posts have just felt generally 'off' to me, and he hasn't really been saying all that much this game. Granted, nor have I, but still and all.

I am accepting and welcoming of my death, as I don't really see a way out of it, lol. I just hope y'all are able to find the real Sophie before she kills the rest of you. Imma stay up on the thread while working on homework, so I will try and answer any responses to explain my stance or anything of that sort more.  

[DeTess]

6 hours ago, Droughtbringer said:

Why is Crimsn the most likely? I don't see much to convict crimsn of anything... Or well, really convict anyone of anything. But is there a reason that we are so focused on Crimsn?

Yeah, the crimsn vote is the result of the process of elimination. It's good to see that you're willing to call us out on that though, that'll be useful once we know her alignment .

@Crimsn-Wolf, if you've got the time, I'd still like to know why you voted the way you did at the end of C2. you claimed to be following the flow of the thread, but as I'd said at the time, that flow had just seriously changed.

13 hours ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

A Sophie with three lives and the ability to suicide and the ability to kill on her own seems excessive for a twelve player game. With the rule change, we have a good chance of winning. We have at worst a 5-2 advantage, with three villagers having safe roles. One of those three will probably be attacked. We have a knight who can block one attack. The upgraded version of the knight isn't really better than the original at this point.The steward and the lover have vote manipulation, with the steward being better than the lover in this regard. The upgraded steward can scan for converts, while the upgraded lover can block actions, including kills. It's all up to Randuir.this cycle.

Not to cast undue suspicion, Devotary, but it's often better not to discuss precise protection strategies as a villager, because you just made the IKYK game for the elims easier (unless I decide to specifically ignore your advice, which isn't bad at all). It's usually in the elims interest to try and get the protection focused around 1 or 2 players, as then it'll be easier to get kills to go through.

In this case it doesn't really matter because it's basically mandatory for the elims to kill one of us three, because if they kill someone that hasn't been cleared, it's game over for them. Still, trying to publicly (or even privately) guide protection roles is often something I find suspicious.

Edit2: Some thoughts for the next cycle in case I die: The new knight probably shouldn't claim, because the level 3 version gets a kill, and the elims really shouldn't get... no that's wrong. The new knight should claim so he can be held accountable. If Crimsn's innocent he should focus on self-protection, as the elims will know who he is anyway. If Crimsn's guilty, then the one remaining elim can't benefit from the extra kill from being a level 3 knight because he only has one action.

Edited April 20, 2018 by randuir

[xxGaea]

4 minutes ago, randuir said:

@Crimsn-Wolf, if you've got the time, I'd still like to know why you voted the way you did at the end of C2. you claimed to be following the flow of the thread, but as I'd said at the time, that flow had just seriously changed.

I just voted with where the vote flow had just moved to.  The flow of the thread had shifted after I started reading, so I just went with what had been the most recent. Apologies for not answering your question sooner.

[DeTess]

Btw, Joe, apologies if I change my action 3 times in the next 3 minutes. I hate these protection IKYK games . 

Edited April 20, 2018 by randuir

[A Joe in the Bush]

Time. Gimme a minute.

[A Joe in the Bush]

Turn 5: [ERROR_SEM_OWNER_DIED (0x69)]

Kai’s favorite wolfhound is red with blood now. Not red with viruses or hacking, but red because you killed her.

Crimsn was a Machineborn!

Vote tally:

Crimsn(A lot): Everyone but crimsn and drought)

Eternum(1):Droughtbringer

The Turn will end in

Player List:

1. DroughtBringer (Player List)

2. Eternum (x/0)

3. Devotary (Player4.exe)

4. Randuir (Cane)

5. Young Bard (Halting Algorithm)

6. Elandera (Rayda)

[DeTess]

In case anyone was wondering, the elims attacked Elandera, who I protected. This was the obvious choice, because if they managed to pick  that power up, and we mislynched the previous cycle (which we did, unfortunately), they could have forced a coin-flip based victory this cycle, even if we managed to lynch correctly. #smug #totallydidn'tconsiderprotectingsomeoneelseat5differenttimes