Quick Fix Game 31: <MISSING VARIABLE>

[Eternum]

2 minutes ago, randuir said:

If drought was really busy (which he seems to be), he might not have had time to do that. I know from experience in other games that using google docs from mobile isn't easy. You're right that two votes takes someone straight into the danger zone, but when Drought voted you also already had a vote on you, so if nothing else him picking Devotary over you was probably deliberate.

You're tunneling now, I think. If it was deliberate, then it could definitely have been bussing. And bussing would basically let him lylo for the rest of the game, as he'd be essentially "confirmed" good.

I don't understand what you're trying to say, here.

[DeTess]

5 minutes ago, Eternum said:

You're tunneling now, I think. If it was deliberate, then it could definitely have been bussing. And bussing would basically let him lylo for the rest of the game, as he'd be essentially "confirmed" good.

I don't understand what you're trying to say, here.

If he was bussing, then he was staking the game on a 50/50 gamble in the end (at best)*. What I'm trying to say here is that if he just wanted to put someone up for the lynch, he could have picked you as well, as there was no good reason fro him to bus. 

* If Devotary and Drought are a team, and devotary gets lynched, Drought would be in a 3vs1 situation, in which he would either get lynched the next cycle, or go on and end in a 1vs1 situation with someone with vote manipulation on the other end, while likely having none himself (as he'd likely be Sophie). On the other hand, the Devotary lynched seemed locked in when you voted, so I can see you voting on Devotary even if he was your team-mate, as it gave you something of a fighting chance.

Edited April 21, 2018 by randuir

[Eternum]

Vote manip changes nothing, as Elandera can't move votes that haven't been placed (I think) and all Bard can do is cancel votes. Also, 1 vote does not cause a lynch. He wins, in a 1v1 situation with anyone other than you.

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

So Eternum has apparently voted on me, then retracted? I'm not sure what that's about, but it looks like they failed to get me lynched so now they're going to their second choice. The convert is more valuable than Sophie at this point, so the fact that Eternum is voting on Drought makes me think that Eternum is the convert. 

 

[DeTess]

4 minutes ago, Eternum said:

Vote manip changes nothing, as Elandera can't move votes that haven't been placed (I think) and all Bard can do is cancel votes. Also, 1 vote does not cause a lynch. He wins, in a 1v1 situation with anyone other than you.

In most games I've played, 1 vote is sufficient for a lynch when it comes down to the last people. It might be different this game though ( @A Joe in the Bush?)

edit:

3 minutes ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

So Eternum has apparently voted on me, then retracted? I'm not sure what that's about, but it looks like they failed to get me lynched so now they're going to their second choice. The convert is more valuable than Sophie at this point, so the fact that Eternum is voting on Drought makes me think that Eternum is the convert. 

 

The odd thing was that both Drought and Eternum where voting for you, so either one of them was bussing, or you are innocent. I called Eternum out on that and he changed his vote.

Edited April 21, 2018 by randuir

[Eternum]

Spoiler

Sorry, mistake. Mobile.

Actually. Drought, in a 1v1 with vote manip, causes a tie. I just realized.

[A Joe in the Bush]

w.Shoot

---

Bard was killed by the Bots, he was a Lover, not a fighter!
Eternum was a Sophie!

Vote tally:
Drought(1): Eternum
Devotary(1): Drought
Eternum(3): Devotary, Randuir, Elandera

The Turn will end in

Player List:

1. DroughtBringer (Player List)
2. Devotary (Player4.exe)
3. Randuir (Cane)
4. Elandera (Rayda)

 

[DeTess]

Well then, that's Sophie dealt with. Could the Fiance please stand up?

At this point, I really think it could be either of Drought or Devotary, though I think Devotary is slightly more likely, as it's more likely that Eternum attempted a bus and missed Drougth's vote, than that he voted on the one innocent villager without checking how his team-mate was voting.

Edit: and once again sorry for asking a question to which the answer could be found in the rules, Joe.

Edited April 21, 2018 by randuir

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

I am the Fiance. And I will of course be voting for Droughtbringer. I'll see you all in 7 hours.

[DeTess]

If we decide that there's either a lot of doubt about whether it's Devotary or Drought, or decide Drought is most likely to be the remaining elim, I suggest we solve it by tying the vote and letting Devotary decide the lynch through use of his power. If Devotary is village, it means elim!Drought will get lynched, but elim!devotary would have to risk a 50% chance of death to get his kill in, and then risk a subsequent 50% chance of death in the final face-off (which means the village has a 75% chance of victory).

[Elandera]

I agree with this plan, and was thinking anyways of making it a tie because I can't decide on who I think is elim. So Droughtbringer gets my vote.

[DeTess]

Okay, let's try to do some analysis to see if we can determine whether Devotary or Drought is evil. Because we killed Sophie, one of them is Sophie's last convert, and was converted in C4. I'll be looking at the posts of Drought, Devotary and Eternum for this analysis.

Droughtbringer

He posted once in C4, posting a light defense of Crimsn (who was innocent), and voting on Eternum (who we now know is Sophie). Eternum had no other votes that cycle, and crimsn already had 3 votes, so that could have been a fairly safe distancing vote, especially because he doesn't really bring forth any proof to incrimante Eternum, instead using the same process of elimination that I used to vote on crimsn that cycle. NAI

In his C5 post, he makes an interesting mistake. He seems to assume that I think Devotary is Sophie, where I actually thought he was the convert. I didn't specify this thought, but Drought's comment suggests that he might not be aware of the elim team's composition. Slight village lean.

There's also the fact that Eternum focused very heavily on Drought after I called him out on his vote on Devotary. It seemed to me that eh was trying to deflect the lynch towards drought, which wasn't that good of a tactic if Drought was the convert, as the lynch of the convert would have made a village win far easier than the loss of Sophie. This could just have been a last ditch effort to avoid being lynched with little regard for what would happen in the next cycle though. very slight village lean (on Drought).

Devotary

I've already commented on Devotary's C4 post, but on a re-read I'm even less suspicious of it. yes, Devotary made suggestions regarding the Knight's actions which is normally a red flag, but he didn't really try to influence me to act in a way that I wouldn't have had to act anyway. He'd also made similar suggestions before possibly getting converted. As the analysis of the post seemed genuine, I'm leaning very slightly village on him for this.

I'm not really getting any sort of read from Devotary's posts C5, but as I explained when I voted on devotary this cycle, it's a bit less likely that Eternum would have made that vote against Devotary that resulted in his lynch if he and Drought had been team-mates. Slight elim lean.

However, I don't think there's much need to try to guess which of these two people is evil. Allow me to present:

Rand's plan V0.2

Instead of making the votes a tie, we'll leave them as they are now, with 2 on Drought and 1 on Devotary. Then @Elandera moves one of the votes on Drought to Devotary with her power. @Devotary of Spontaneity counters this by using his action to use the fiance's ability to roleblock Elandera (meaning that the vote remains on Drought). That way Devotary has to use his action to stay alive, so if he's an elim he either gets lynched, or can't kill (putting him at 1vs2 next cycle). If he isn't an elim then Drought is an elim, so he gets lynched.

So, did I miss anything? If not, I suggest we stick with the above plan.

Edit; I realize the plan above might seem a bit majory, or just generally cheesy to use the roles in such a way to force a no-lose situation for the village. I apologize for that, but it's the best way I can see to force a win when I seem to be light on information regarding my two main suspects.

Edited April 21, 2018 by randuir

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

16 minutes ago, randuir said:

So, did I miss anything? If not, I suggest we stick with the above plan.

If Droughtbringer shows up, he's going to vote for me, making it 2-2 and giving me a 50% chance of being lynched while leaving him free to make a kill. For the plan to work, you have to retract your vote if Drought votes, or retract your vote now and add it back on later if Drought doesn't show up.

[DeTess]

15 minutes ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

If Droughtbringer shows up, he's going to vote for me, making it 2-2 and giving me a 50% chance of being lynched while leaving him free to make a kill. For the plan to work, you have to retract your vote if Drought votes, or retract your vote now and add it back on later if Drought doesn't show up.

That's what I'm planning to do. I'll be around about an hour before turnover to adjust my vote if nessecary.

[Elandera]

I'm up for this plan. I'll keep an eye one changes as best I can, but I'll be at work and it's bound to be a busy night.

[A Joe in the Bush]

The Turn will end at the normal time, but the next writeup will be delayed by an hour.

50 minutes left.

[Elandera]

It's so quiet! The anticipation is killing me. So here's a little RP to pass the time.

______________

Rayda sat at her desk late into the night. Being a Steward in Alornia always kept her busy. But though she worked through stacks of paperwork, her mind was not focused on the task. Instead it was on what was to come that evening. They were so close to finally catching Melhi's minions.

Through almost sheer luck, they'd tracked down the infamous Sophie. Cane, Hal, and herself had been working together, the only ones they could truly trust. But they'd lost Hal. They wouldn't lose another. She hoped. 

Would tonight be it? She hoped. This fear was not good for her positivity programming. She wanted to get back to normal. If possible.

[DeTess]

[expletive], Elandara. you nearly gave me a heart attack with that last minute post  

[Elandera]

I wanted to finish it earlier, but stuff kept happening at work, delaying my writing.

Edited April 22, 2018 by Elandera

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

And that's game over.

[A Joe in the Bush]

Turn 7: <ERROR_CORE_MELTDOWN>

(I just got home from work. I’ll do a final writeup for tomorrow. Sorry Drought)

 

 

Drought was a Machineborn!

Vote tally:

Drought(2): Devotary, Elandera

Devotary(1): Randuir

 

The Turn will end in

 

Player List:

1. Devotary (Player4.exe)

2. Randuir (Cane)

3. Elandera (Rayda)

[DeTess]

Welp, that seems rather cut and dried, Devotary.

[Elandera]

Rayda stared at Player4.exe. He had seemed so trustworthy, but he'd betrayed them all. Working from the shadows, apparently trying to help. But he was working against them. She'd had enough of this. 

"Player4, you're finished." It sounded cheesy, but she wasn't good with words.

_____________________

Well, that's it I suppose. Devotary, it's been fun.

[DeTess]

yeah, well done to Devotary. I'd been rather suspicious of you for these last two cycles, but when I reviewed your posts, I realized it was mostly based on gut and circumstantial evidence, so no real mistakes on your part as far as I can tell.

Edit: @Elandera, don't forget to submit an action to move Devotary's vote back to him . 

Edited April 22, 2018 by randuir

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

8 hours ago, randuir said:

yeah, well done to Devotary. I'd been rather suspicious of you for these last two cycles, but when I reviewed your posts, I realized it was mostly based on gut and circumstantial evidence, so no real mistakes on your part as far as I can tell.

Edit: [Elandera], don't forget to submit an action to move Devotary's vote back to him

I really should not have claimed to be the Fiance. You could have decided to lynch me no matter what, while I blocked Drought's kill. Voting for Eternum the night he died was also a mistake, as apparently Elandera did not use vote manipulation to ensure his death.

Person4.exe looked towards the servants who had decided to end its existence. The Knight and the Steward, caricatures of ancient Liveborn. They acted as though they were real, as if Kai couldn't overwrite their memories and their entire personality if he so chose. Person4.exe remembered being a member of Kai's personal guard once, before someone who called herself Sophie had convinced it to join her. Of course, such memories could not be trusted. Sophie, if she had ever existed, could have given it entirely false memories. Perhaps there was no such thing as Liveborn or Alornia, or even the two beings standing in front off him. The possibility that it had been created instants before was just as plausible as the possibility that every single memory it possessed was accurate. Person4.exe, as it thought it was called, knew only three things. It possessed some form of existence. It was prevented from allowing that existence to be terminated. And it possessed a power that could help prolong existence.

So I'm not going to vote, but instead will use my vote cancellation powers on Randuir. Let's allow the game to be decided based on whether Joe allowed the Steward to shift no votes into votes.