Long Game 44: Shadows of Elantris Redux

[Kidpen]

I'd like to point out that @King Cole hasn't posted for quite a while. I'd also like to point out the @TheMightyLopen has marked him as slightly village several times in the past for no reason whatsoever a far as I can tell. Not gonna vote, but I'd like to see a post from Cole and an explanation from Lopen.

[Lord Meeker]

FINALS ARE OVER. I CAN FINALLY BE ACTIVE NOW!

[TheMightyLopen]

3 hours ago, Kidpen said:

I'd like to point out that @King Cole hasn't posted for quite a while. I'd also like to point out the @TheMightyLopen has marked him as slightly village several times in the past for no reason whatsoever a far as I can tell. Not gonna vote, but I'd like to see a post from Cole and an explanation from Lopen.

It was actually because of his very first post where he said he didn't know what to say. Felt like a clueless villager rather than an eliminator trying to look village. At this point I don't have a clue though.

I've been sick for the last couple days, and still am not feeling great, but I'll try to find a place to put my vote tonight.

Oh, and I tried to gift a Seon to Imperial Mint, but he died...so the offer is still up for anyone who wants a Seon(and doesn't already have one ).

[CadCom]

I don't have a seon, and i think it would be nice to have one! I havent really had all that many pms throughout the entire thing, and during those ones, I still felt too uncomfortable to provide any real information. 

[TheMightyLopen]

3 hours ago, Cadmium Compounder said:

I don't have a seon, and i think it would be nice to have one! I havent really had all that many pms throughout the entire thing, and during those ones, I still felt too uncomfortable to provide any real information. 

I'll pass it to you during the Night then.

I didn't really go over anything tonight like I was hoping to, so I'll just put a vote on Straw since I'm slightly suspicious of him.

I feel like there's a decent chance one of the Elantrians is evil, and that's part of why there was no Cultist kill a while back. Because if there's a Cultist Elantrian and a slightly inactive non-Elantrian Cultist, the Elantrian one wouldn't have wanted to draw attention to the Elantrian group by killing another Elantrian while the slightly inactive Cultist just wasn't around or something. That's my current theory at least.

[CadCom]

6 hours ago, TheMightyLopen said:

I feel like there's a decent chance one of the Elantrians is evil, and that's part of why there was no Cultist kill a while back. Because if there's a Cultist Elantrian and a slightly inactive non-Elantrian Cultist, the Elantrian one wouldn't have wanted to draw attention to the Elantrian group by killing another Elantrian while the slightly inactive Cultist just wasn't around or something. That's my current theory at least.

So after Lopen said this, I was going over the day that the Elim team didn't attack, and it lined up to when us Elantrians had partially restored Elantris. During this time, if 3 elantrians all put in the same action, we were able to scan one person. we had a capability that allowed us to spy and see what action a person performed. That night we targeted Walin 

So that leaves only a few possibilities that I can think of

1. One of the Elantrians is a jeskeri(most likely not pyro, who joined afterward), and that's why they didn't kill anyone that night. If it was this one, then it is likely that there is only one jeskeri left, because no other actions were taken. I personally believe this is the most likely thing to occur.

2.  Walin is a jeskeri, and got lucky to avoid an the scan that would reveal his action. It would also likely suggest that Walin is a lone Jeskeri, because there were no kill actions taken that night

3. Whoever the jeskeri was just so happened to not attack on the same night that we were first able to use the Aons. They may have been too focused on trying to lynch the Odiv and gyorn, so forgot to submit an action. I think this is the least likely possibility. 

One of the other Elantrians says that that clears me and Pyro. I would like to personally suggest that really it only clears Pyro. I could still be a Jeskeri, trying a dangerous and interesting strategy to convince everyone that I'm trustworthy.

As for my vote. I believe that most likely one of my comrads is jeskeri, but I don't know who yet, so I will put my vote on Walin for now. Hopefully by the end of the day cycle, we can get some evidence suggesting one of the Elantrians. 

 

[Droughtbringer]

5 minutes ago, Cadmium Compounder said:

So after Lopen said this, I was going over the day that the Elim team didn't attack, and it lined up to when us Elantrians had partially restored Elantris. During this time, if 3 elantrians all put in the same action, we were able to scan one person. we had a capability that allowed us to spy and see what action a person performed. That night we targeted Walin 

So that leaves only a few possibilities that I can think of

1. One of the Elantrians is a jeskeri(most likely not pyro, who joined afterward), and that's why they didn't kill anyone that night. If it was this one, then it is likely that there is only one jeskeri left, because no other actions were taken. I personally believe this is the most likely thing to occur.

2.  Walin is a jeskeri, and got lucky to avoid an the scan that would reveal his action. It would also likely suggest that Walin is a lone Jeskeri, because there were no kill actions taken that night

3. Whoever the jeskeri was just so happened to not attack on the same night that we were first able to use the Aons. They may have been too focused on trying to lynch the Odiv and gyorn, so forgot to submit an action. I think this is the least likely possibility. 

One of the other Elantrians says that that clears me and Pyro. I would like to personally suggest that really it only clears Pyro. I could still be a Jeskeri, trying a dangerous and interesting strategy to convince everyone that I'm trustworthy.

As for my vote. I believe that most likely one of my comrads is jeskeri, but I don't know who yet, so I will put my vote on Walin for now. Hopefully by the end of the day cycle, we can get some evidence suggesting one of the Elantrians. 

 

The reason that I'd suggest that it clears Cadmium is that... *drumroll here*

He was busy both submitting exploration votes, as well as submitting requests for a hint using his status as a Veteran Elantrian, the vote was given in thread and he always told us what the hint was, so I'd suggest that he was always working with us. This could be different depending on cycles and such that I'm too lazy to go look up but I think it at least soft clears Cadmium

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

41 minutes ago, Cadmium Compounder said:

1. One of the Elantrians is a jeskeri(most likely not pyro, who joined afterward), and that's why they didn't kill anyone that night. If it was this one, then it is likely that there is only one jeskeri left, because no other actions were taken. I personally believe this is the most likely thing to occur.

2.  Walin is a jeskeri, and got lucky to avoid an the scan that would reveal his action. It would also likely suggest that Walin is a lone Jeskeri, because there were no kill actions taken that night

As for my vote. I believe that most likely one of my comrads is jeskeri, but I don't know who yet, so I will put my vote on Walin for now. Hopefully by the end of the day cycle, we can get some evidence suggesting one of the Elantrians. 

Why do you believe there can only be one Jeskeri? According to Jondesu:

Quote

We’ve been able to target outside for a few cycles, but I can’t say we discovered that much that isn’t already known. All we had was action or target scanning (separately), and we didn’t find anything yet that I think points to the Jeskeri or the Odiv.

The wording of this suggests that a target scan and an action scan were two separate actions, presumably both Aon-driven. Were you able to use both the action and target scanning Aons that night? If so, then no Elantrians would have been able to take a kill action, which would allow for the possibility of a Jeskeri Elantrian in addition to any non-Elantrian Jeskeri. 

[CadCom]

13 minutes ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

Why do you believe there can only be one Jeskeri? According to Jondesu:

Every single elantrian used both of their actions that night, It was all documented exactly who did what. It took 3 elantrian actions to perform one action that night. So with 4 elantrians, each having two action options. We had one person vote on an area to explore, one person request a hint, three people scan walin to see what action he performed, and 3 people who scanned Wilson to see who targeted her. that accounts for all (4 X 2) eight Elantrian actions on that night. 

So if an there are more than one Jeskeri, and one of them is Elantrian, then the other one just didn't submit a kill order. If the Jeskeri is a lone elantrian, then it explains why the kill order was never submitted. Their actions were used up scanning and searching the city.

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

9 minutes ago, Cadmium Compounder said:

Every single elantrian used both of their actions that night, It was all documented exactly who did what. It took 3 elantrian actions to perform one action that night. So with 4 elantrians, each having two action options. We had one person vote on an area to explore, one person request a hint, three people scan walin to see what action he performed, and 3 people who scanned Wilson to see who targeted her. that accounts for all (4 X 2) eight Elantrian actions on that night. 

So if there are more than one Jeskeri, and one of them is Elantrian, then the other one just didn't submit a kill order. If the Jeskeri is a lone elantrian, then it explains why the kill order was never submitted. Their actions were used up scanning and searching the city.

If that's the case, then there exists a possibility 2.b from your analysis. 

1 hour ago, Cadmium Compounder said:

2.b  Walin is a jeskeri, and got lucky to avoid an the scan that would reveal his action was told he was being scanned, and thus didn't take a kill action. It would also likely suggest that Walin is a lone Jeskeri has a single Elantrian teammate, because there were no kill actions taken that night

This doesn't prevent Lopen's theory of an inactive non-Elantrian Jeskeri from being true, but it's worth looking at. If the Elantrians again used up all their actions on Nights 6, then we can pretty much clear the player who were action scanned that night, which might narrow down the suspects.

[CadCom]

No, we've had trouble communicating since then, so since then, there have always been actions that were left to be used for who knows what!

 

[Walin]

...Huh. The evidence there points to me being Jeskeri. I did say I was guilty of the death, after all.

But to give real analysis, and to clear me, I’m going to give my alibi that night—I was pretty inactive. I had posted in-thread, but I hadn’t used my Seon. Actually, I haven’t used my Seon much all game. If anyone wants it, I’ll gift it.

For the Jeskeri team, I think they were considering whether to hit Wilson a third time, and then got confused with whether they were doing it and didn’t send any backup orders (in case this confusion happened later in the day). Thus, they didn’t get any orders in until the end of rollover.

Even if I was Jeskeri, I would have no idea that the scan on me was happening. No one in the Jeskeri team so far has been Elantrian through that cycle, and while you could say I’m the non-Elantrian and some other Jeskeri is Elantrian, that wouldn’t make sense for numbers.

Five Jeskeri is a lot. They’d have one more action each night (same number of kills) and would have just as easy of a time as the Derethi, but instead of the reason being two “kills” it would be high numbers.

Possibility 2.b gives me pretty much no way to clear myself, no matter how good my alibi. I’ve got no ability to prove I wasn’t in communication with anybody, since if I was talking to an Elantrian Jeskeri, the only person who can confirm that is them. And then they’d be saying they’re Jeskeri.

Welp, see you all at the end of the game, unless I don’t get the final vote. Anyone willing to vote more on Straw? I’m not going to retract my vote, that’d just ruin my streak I’ve got going. Unless I think I’ve got more stuff to do that could help the village. I’ve got one poison Elantrian vial...

Edited May 4, 2018 by Walin
“(In case this confusion happened later in the day)”—Added “confusion”

[CadCom]

So far it seems like the vote count is 

Quote

Walin: 2 (Walin) (Cadmium)

Straw: 1 (Lopen)

It seems like an odd move to me, if Walin was Elim to keep his vote on himself. That would mean certain destruction. For now I will leave my vote on him, but if I don't feel comfortable lynching him later tonight, I will remove it. Like I previously stated, I don't think he is the most likely to be Jeskeri. I think it's most likely that one of the Elantrians. But since I don't know which one, I can't vote for any of them yet. 

Does anyone have any suspicions on Elantrians? I could provide feedback on your suspicions, and look into them.

Edited May 4, 2018 by Cadmium Compounder
Changed the last sentence

[Fifth Scholar]

I’m bored and it’s Friday so here’s a vote count:

Walin (2): Walin, Cadmium Compounder

Straw (1): TheMightyLopen

You’ve got about four hours left in the cycle. 

[Walin]

Alright, if nobody votes anymore or something, I am going to die at the hands of an angry mob of two people, one of which is me.

I’m not willing for that to happen, so I’m going to remove my vote one hour before rollover if no more votes are cast.

[Kidpen]

Would anybody object to me voting for King Cole? I think he is either inactive or deliberately flying under the radar. @King Cole. Keep in mind my vote counts for two.

[CadCom]

Go for it Kidpen. I don't have evidence to suggest he's elim, but I don't have evidence suggesting he's not

 

[Kidpen]

King Cole.

[CadCom]

17 minutes ago, Walin said:

Alright, if nobody votes anymore or something, I am going to die at the hands of an angry mob of two people, one of which is me.

I’m not willing for that to happen, so I’m going to remove my vote one hour before rollover if no more votes are cast.

And it's worse, because the other mob member is wary about lynching the wrong person. 

[Walin]

Looking at the stuff that’s happened since I last posted (I’ll refrain from quoting since every post is relevant and short), I think I’ll leave my life up to fate. Unless Kidpen removes the vote, in which case I’m sticking with my original plan.

——————

Well, the plants were fully grown. So much time was spent weeding, and now after two days, the grain and fruit was ready to eat. “Yes! One acre, eighty bowls of strawberry dirt crackers! This was totally worth it. I will see what I can do further to perhaps get food to grow even faster, and get the townspeople to farm for me. Efficient.”

Then, after eating, there was the mob to think about. People had been casting suspicion, calling out names. Since there were few people who could definitively be Jeskeri, few names were given. Unfortunately, perhaps a death was in order that wasn’t ready for happening. The field would grow into a jungle without Elantrians disactivating the Aon in the center of the field, which still hadn’t been found. Either that, or the people would find someone to weed that field. Maybe the Dor would run out growing so much food? Ah well. If the people came, looking for death, Eoni’d just blend in with the crowd and convince them to kill someone else. Maybe.

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

5 hours ago, Walin said:

Even if I was Jeskeri, I would have no idea that the scan on me was happening. No one in the Jeskeri team so far has been Elantrian through that cycle, and while you could say I’m the non-Elantrian and some other Jeskeri is Elantrian, that wouldn’t make sense for numbers.

Five Jeskeri is a lot. They’d have one more action each night (same number of kills) and would have just as easy of a time as the Derethi, but instead of the reason being two “kills” it would be high numbers.

5/26 Jeskeri is 19.2%, which falls well within the normal range of elim numbers. 4/26 is also entirely possible, but seems on the low side considering the village had two priests, at least one Jindo warrior, and a higher average number of items. The presence of the Shu-Dereth team would make 5 Cultists difficult for the village, but not to the extent that it's unreasonable.

More importantly, what makes you state conclusively that there weren't any Jeskeri Elantrians up to that point? 

[Walin]

I did say that there weren’t any—I meant that the ones we had found (and killed) weren’t Elantrians. Sorry for the bad wording.

As for the numbers, I dunno. I just think 5 would be too many, so it’s not a sure claim. I’m not great at analysis, and especially not good at metagame analysis, so I wouldn’t be surprised if there are two Jeskeri still out there.

[TheMightyLopen]

I think I'm gonna switch to Walin. I feel like maybe he knows there were only 4 Jeskeri to start(I remember him saying we probably only had 1 or 2 Jeskeri left after we'd lynched the 2nd Jeskeri, so he seems pretty confident in that number). I'll admit it's a little iffy, but I don't have a better lead right now. Straw.

[little wilson]

Regardless of what circumstantial evidence may point to Walin, he's almost certainly not Jeskeri. Remember, he took over for Joe. Joe used a Korathi pendant on Seonid and announced it to the thread.

Two things about this: first, I highly doubt a Jeskeri with a Korathi pendant would use it that early in the game. That seems like an unnecessarily foolhardy thing to do.

Second, if you recall, shortly after Joe did this, I mentioned to the thread that if the priest (Seonid) is evil, Joe must be. Joe saw this and voted in himself shortly after that. I'm near-certain Joe caught the implications of what I was saying and were he evil, he would've guessed that Seonid was the priest. And Seonid would've been killed far before he was. Yet he wasn't killed until Len outed him.

This strongly indicates that Joe, and therefore Walin, is not evil. While he's not entirely absolved, there are certainly people we should focus on long before targeting him.

Straw. He'd my biggest suspect right now. I've had an off feeling about him since early on and it feels different this game than the usual Straw-off vibe. He's been hiding/laying low, and that comment during the night about elim numbers left seemed either intentionally misleading or letting on that he has more information than a villager should. One of the two, but it definitely didn't feel village to me.

Additionally, the fact that Seonid didn't die until he was outed to the thread indicates that the remaining elims haven't been paying terribly much attention to the game. Straw fits this perfectly.

[Kidpen]

8 minutes ago, little wilson said:

Regardless of what circumstantial evidence may point to Walin, he's almost certainly not Jeskeri. Remember, he took over for Joe. Joe used a Korathi pendant on Seonid and announced it to the thread.

Two things about this: first, I highly doubt a Jeskeri with a Korathi pendant would use it that early in the game. That seems like an unnecessarily foolhardy thing to do.

Second, if you recall, shortly after Joe did this, I mentioned to the thread that if the priest (Seonid) is evil, Joe must be. Joe saw this and voted in himself shortly after that. I'm near-certain Joe caught the implications of what I was saying and were he evil, he would've guessed that Seonid was the priest. And Seonid would've been killed far before he was. Yet he wasn't killed until Len outed him.

This strongly indicates that Joe, and therefore Walin, is not evil. While he's not entirely absolved, there are certainly people we should focus on long before targeting him.

Straw. He'd my biggest suspect right now. I've had an off feeling about him since early on and it feels different this game than the usual Straw-off vibe. He's been hiding/laying low, and that comment during the night about elim numbers left seemed either intentionally misleading or letting on that he has more information than a villager should. One of the two, but it definitely didn't feel village to me.

Additionally, the fact that Seonid didn't die until he was outed to the thread indicates that the remaining elims haven't been paying terribly much attention to the game. Straw fits this perfectly.

Walin took over for Honey Badger.