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Mid-Range Game 28: Knives in the Dark


Elenion

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Only fifteen minutes left in the cycle and I still haven't figured out who I want to vote for. 

19 minutes ago, Drake Marshall said:

But that's not really my agenda. I've deliberated and I see no reason not to reveal I'm a neutral.

As it is, I'm kind of bothered that Madagascar is saying in PMs that they feel they don't belong on this forum.

So, Droughtbringer.

The main thing that's odd about this is that Drake claims that killing evils isn't part of his win condition, then proceeds to place a vote on a player tied for the lynch. @Drake Marshall, does lynching people further your agenda? I understand that didn't want Madagascar to die, but we don't know what happens with a tied lynch, so why did you decide to break the tie to get someone killed?

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Wow. A four way tie. I kind of want to leave it and hope the gods of luck and chance get involved. I don't like the sudden lynch on Drake, though.

In the interest of fun, I'd prefer to lynch Chaos. In the interest of information, Madagascar makes the most sense. 

I'll lurk for another minute and see what else happens.

Edit: nope, I'm going to leave it as it is.

Edited by livinglegend
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Lift, or Nolan (Fifth Scholar) as she went by in Kharbranth, was hungry. That wasn’t abnormal for her; she was always hungry, at least this time of the morning before her daily pancake heists. So when she found a stack of pancakes at her door with a note attached, her hunger overcame her paranoia, and she wolfed them all down.

To Nolan, the note read, I have seen your efforts in collecting pancakes and thought to save you a trip across town. Here is a stack of pancakes I made from scratch, just for you. I hope you enjoy them.

--An Admirer

Specially-made those pancakes were. Within an hour she was found dead by cyanide poisoning.

*****

Ev (Drake Marshall) slinked his way down a dark alley. After escaping from the mental hospital, he’d thought he’d be home free. But no, it was work, work, work.

He stopped at the corner and asked a beggar, “Any word from the town square? Who have they decided is the killer?”

The beggar turned and squinted at him, “They should have decided by now, but right before they were to leave there was a sudden change of plan.”

“Who?”

The lights of torches suddenly illuminated the alley, and that answered that question.

*****

Fifth Scholar was killed! They were Lift allied with the Kharbranth Citizens!

Drake Marshall was lynched! They were a Proto-Lightweaver allied with the Escaped Inmates!

Vote tally:
Drought (1): Drake
Fifth (1): Drought
Drake (5): Orlok, STINK, Steeldancer, Devotary, Fifth Scholar
Eternum (1): Aman
Madagascar (1): Eternum
Lady of Chaos (2): Herowannabe, Madagascar

Roles revealed:
Lift: Progression: Each cycle, you may protect one player from death. This does not affect the lynch, and you cannot protect yourself.
Proto-Lightweaver: As your action, you can use the Surge of Illumination to disguise a target player. You choose what the target’s role and alignment appear to be to all scans that target them this cycle. This does not affect the reveal upon death.

Player list:

Spoiler

1. Walin: Nalter, a tastespren scholar
2. Jondesu: Div
3. Devotary of Spontaneity: Akhanaka, a fearless ardent
4. Eternum: Aiden
5. Kynedath: Lo-Kag, third Horneater son
6. LivingLegend: Lej'elin, a teen disgusted with the Alethi for good reason
7. Droughtbringer
8. Orlok: Highlord Locke Tekiel
9. STINK: Trumpet Guy, BWOOT
10. Madagascar: "Mad" Mapadonet, a famous pig researcher.
11. Stick: Stick, a sticky stick
12. Amanuensis: Ana Lyst
13. Drake Marshall: Ev Escaped Inmates Proto-Lightweaver
14. Fifth Scholar: Nolan Kharbranth Citizens Lift 
15. Herowannabe: Nabbers, a Herdazian chouta street vendor
16. Coop772
17. Ecthelion
18. Steeldancer
19. Lady of Chaos

red_1522184400.png

Edited by Elenion
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Orlok, you will never cease to amaze me with your insight. Also, RIP Lift. Ok, if lift was a role, this tells us that we might have some other roles specific to characters in stormlight, and other Radiants, hopefully some good ones. Also, based on Drakes role, this means the village probably has some sort of scanning power! Huzzah! 

Ok, and the elim team is called the escaped inmates. Interesting. 

Edited by Steeldancer
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I just got back to VA and haven't caught up on anything that's happened since my last post, so I have no idea what happened with Drake but good job guys :P reading the rest of Day 1 now. Will try to get a substantial post done before I go to sleep. Feel free to @me if you need something in the mean time, though.

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Ironic. She could protect others from death, but in the end, she could not save herself.

Anyways. 

Interesting to know more about some of the roles and alignments. Wonder how many escaped inmates, or players aligned with them, there are.

And yeah, to all the questions from last cycle, I don’t really care to answer them. My reasons are my own.

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Quote from Drake Marshall: "But that's not really my agenda. I've deliberated and I see no reason not to reveal I'm a neutral."

1 hour ago, Elenion said:

Drake Marshall was lynched! They were a Proto-Lightweaver allied with the Escaped Inmates!

 

Mapadonet rises from the pile of trash and pigs where she was resting, checks that all limbs are present.

"I stand by my argument that the logic that evil people are unlikely to risk lying and say they are neutral or villager is shaky at best."

Back to sleep.

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1 hour ago, Jondesu said:

Wonder how many escaped inmates, or players aligned with them, there are.

To clarify, there's no difference between being a member of X and being allied with X. It's just fancier to say it this way. B)

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Seriously? Storms, this is fantastic! I don't remember a single time when there was an eliminator caught on the first day.

Looking back at Drake's interactions D1, it seems that they posted very little of note. The things that pique my interest are those bandwagoning on him near the end, namely Steeldancer, Devotary, and Fifth. There is not much reason to speak of for voting, the most probably being "getting more info from killing them" that both Orlok and Devotary relied on, and that Steel also used to explain his vote based on Orlok's post.

Something about @Steeldancer's post seems off to me though. Why would you change your vote from Lady of chaos to Drake and say that Orlok's reasoning was the reason when Orlok put his vote on Drake before you voted on Lady of chaos?

Another curiosity is @livinglegend 's vote on Drought right after the cycle ended. It doesn't really seem like an eliminator move since it couldn't have changed the lynch target at that point, and all it did was draw attention to themselves. Especially since their prior post stated that they were most inclined to lynch either Lady of Chaos or Madagascar, then again going on to say that they'll leave things they way they were. Nothing about that makes any sort of sense to me.

I think that I'll start of this cycle's voting with Steeldancer. Your vote at the end of last cycle makes me very suspicious. 

Considering the new information regarding the eliminators, I think the most likely scenario now is that there is only one eliminator team, like in a standard SE game. If Drake had been the only eliminator with a recruitment ability (which he didn't have), then we would have just won the game. However, seeing as how that is not the case, as well as the pluralized name "Escaped Inmates", I think it's safe to assume that they were a part of a team. Now, as it is, they were either a part of one of two or maybe three small teams, or else it's a standard game. With this amount of players, I believe it's unlikely that there is multiple eliminator teams.

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@Kynedath, Steeldancer was the vote that condemned Drake to die, changing the lynch from LoC to Drake. I think that just about hard clears him, given there were only a couple of minutes left in the cycle. I similarly think Devotary and Stink are cleared - I can’t see eliminators joining a very end of day one bandwagon against one of their roles.

It’s 5:20am and I haven’t slept, but I’ll look back through the end of the thread when I wake to see if I can glean anything else of value from it.

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Well I have to admit that I was quite surprised to learn that Drake was evil I just reread the second half of cycle 1, focusing specifically on the discussion on Drake, and I am still not picking up any evil vibes from him or from his "I'm neutral" post- at least, no more evil vibes than I get from anyone else and far less than some. So @Orlok Tsubodai, bravo for calling him out and rallying enough of the village to get him lynched last minute like that! I'm astounded! Have a complimentary Chouta, on me. *I'm going to have to give what you say a bit more credence from now on. However, seeing as I'm probably your #1 suspect after Drake... :unsure: I suppose I should probably address that. 

Okay, so to explain a bit more specifically my behavior and actions during the first cycle: Quite simply, and honestly, I signed up for this game to have fun, and cycle 1 that's what I was doing: having fun. Hence all the RP and the majority of my reasoning for not wanting to support a lynch Eternum or Madagascar- they were both having fun and playing along with my RP. I would have extended the same support (or at least lack of accusation) to anyone else who bought chouta from me. I figured the odds of lynching anyone useful cycle 1 was pretty low (boy was I proven wrong!) so my goal- such as it was- was to keep the people I enjoyed playing with alive (which is also the primary reason why I voted on an active. Speaking of which, @The_Lady_of_Chaos and @Ecthelion III, I'd still like to hear from you two), and at the same time watch people for anything I found suspicious, to be acted upon in later cycles. 

If you need any more explanation about anything I did or didn't do during cycle 1, I'm happy to provide it, though that pretty much sums it up. 

So, that brings us to this cycle and who I'm suspicious of because of their behavior thus far. There are several, but one person stands out to me far more than anyone else: Livinglegend

Livinglegend tried to cast a last minute vote on Droughtbringer, with no explanation, but was beat out by Elenion closing the cycle by seconds. That was the only non-Drake vote made after the point when Orlok called Drake out for claiming neutral and started the bandwagon against him (technically Steeldancer cast a vote for Lady of Chaos, but changed it a few minutes later because of Orlok's persuasiveness).

That stands out as being mighty suspicious to me. A last second vote on someone other than Drake, who we were minutes away from finding out was an elim, and providing no explanation for that vote whatsoever? That rings of an eliminator trying a last ditch attempt to save a teammate to me.

Plus, Livinglegend never bought any of my chouta. <_<

So, @livinglegend, what do you have to say for yourself?

 

EDIT: ninja'd by Kynedath and Orlok, but nothing in their posts changes anything about mine. Obviously, I disagree with Kynedath about Livinglegend's last minute vote being suspicious. 

I also have gone through and looked at everything LL posted and everything posted about LL in cycle 1, and nothing really changes my mind. Most of the discussion revolves around LL's claim to "not have an elim win condition," which he himself admits is a blatant IKYK.

 

Edited by Herowannabe
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@Orlok Tsubodai, you're right that Steel was the one to turn the vote, but the way he did it makes no logical sense to me. With those specific conditions, there are multiple potential benefits from securing the lynch on a teammate. One such benefit would be to gain trust. If the eliminator team thought there was no way to save Drake since there was a bandwagon forming, then wouldn't their next best move be to maximize their benefit from that? Granted that is just one possibility, and a slim one at that, but one that is still possible. If he can provide an explanation as to why he would vote in the way he did with as little reasoning as he provides, then I would be more than willing to drop my vote and trust him a little more. But until then, he and Livinglegend have both bypassed all visible logic with their actions and I find that very suspicious. I can't imagine any scenario where an elim would vote like LL did, but I can imagine a situation where an eliminator would vote like Steel did, so that's where I will keep my vote until they respond.

On the topic of Livinglegend, I should clarify that I do in fact find their actions suspicious and worthy of further inquiry, but I do not find it a move that an eliminator would likely make. It may sound paradoxical, but if they are an eliminator then how they voted last cycle makes zero sense whatsoever, which always causes alarms to go off in my head. @Herowannabe, I don't think that an eliminator would try to save a teammate when the closest competitor for the lynch is three votes behind, especially since they didn't even vote for that second-place competitor. The much more likely situation is that their claim to be neutral is valid and they have a very odd win condition. That being said, I am still very curious as to their response to your allegations since their actions confuse me to no end.

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7 hours ago, Jondesu said:

Ironic. She could protect others from death, but in the end, she could not save herself.

Anyways. 

Interesting to know more about some of the roles and alignments. Wonder how many escaped inmates, or players aligned with them, there are.

And yeah, to all the questions from last cycle, I don’t really care to answer them. My reasons are my own.

I should play that card more. 'Why did you kill him?' 'Well my reasons are my reasons and not yours so tyvm'.

4 hours ago, livinglegend said:

Well, Drought is all but cleared in my eyes now. Next to analyze all the vote changes.

Now now, why would that be?

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Sorry for being useless yesterday. >> I will admit that I haven't been giving this game as much time and thought as I should -I've been far too invested in the other game, hence the lesser number of actual opinions and more of just sheeping around, and I apologise. I'll to balance the two from now :D All caught up on yesterday's thread.

Yay for catching an elim on C1. Ha. I don't think that we should ever be 'clearing' people, though I do have strong village reads on them. Though this post here:

Quote

Devotary: I do think that a Drake lynch will provide more information than killing someone that hasn't posted yet. I find it interesting that Orlok has pushed this lynch so hard, but I'm willing to go along with it.

Am I the only one who missed the 'pushed for it so hard' part? 

Here's the other things that caught my attention while reading the thread in light of the lynch results, some of which people here have already outlined:

Quote

Drake: I don't really know what's going on, so I can't really say that much yet. Except that if Madagascar dies prematurely I will be cross. Their RP is way too much fun for that.

I can see this as ether Drake pocketing Mad or Drake being partners with Mad. I`m honestly having trouble trying to figure out which is more likely, though I`m ever so slightly leaning on the latter. Fifth had somewhat defended Mad as well, though I don't know if that tells us much. Confirmed good aint confirmed right, kids. For all it matters, Hero was the third player to defend Mad, though that seems pretty much NAI, if his reasons to do so presented this cycle are to be trusted. Of course, Drake`s reason for defending Mad was also exactly the same, so I don't know. >>

A Chaos lynched had momentarily formed, which I believe is pretty NAI on Hero's part. Though Mad joined in with thier vote soon to try and save themselves from the lynch. Could be either a village or an elim move TBH 

Drake tried to get Drought lynched near the end of the cycle, which makes me lean village on Drought. And he expressed suspicion on Kyne (for saying elims (?)) and Aman (for diverting attention from "important things". I would've been interested to ask him what he meant by that if he were alive), and then proceeded to say that it doesn't matter to him cos he's neutral. K. 

Next on my list in LivingLegend 

Quote

livinglegend

 

Wow. A four way tie. I kind of want to leave it and hope the gods of luck and chance get involved. I don't like the sudden lynch on Drake, though.

In the interest of fun, I'd prefer to lynch Chaos. In the interest of information, Madagascar makes the most sense. 

This can definitely be telling. They say that they think the Mad lynch would make sense but notably do not vote on anybody, saying that they're going to leave it as it is. Though they did come back and vote for Drought after the cycle ended, even though they said earlier that they would want a chaos lynch. I don`t know what they had hoped to achieve by voting on Drought but it certainly is strange behaviour. I`m curious as to why they didn`t change their vote to Chaos, if they truly did want to save an elim teammate or something. @livinglegend you claimed to be neutral. Does that have anything to do with your strange vote and all?

Honestly tho what`s with these neutral-claimed people voting on Drought.

So, based on all of that, here's my reads (100% is most elim-y):

DoS: 35% 

Eternum: 45% 

Kynedath: 45% 

LivingLegend: 65% 

Drought: 30% 

Orlok: 30% 

STINK: 30%

Madagascar: 65%

Aman: 50% 

Hero: 50% (I got a *slight* elim vibe but more of a neutral one from Hero when reading the last thread due to there being so many NAI things)

Steel: 30%

5 hours ago, Elenion said:

To clarify, there's no difference between being a member of X and being allied with X. It's just fancier to say it this way. B)

There goes my conversion theory. Not to mention the kill, which I suspected won't happen so early if conversions were a thing. Seems like there's one formed elim team?

4 hours ago, livinglegend said:

Well, Drought is all but cleared in my eyes now. Next to analyze all the vote changes.

I`m interested to hear your opinion on whatever I`ve quoted you on/mentioned you in this post, and what Hero has said.

I think that I need to analyse Jond`s posts, as I`ve yet to develop an actual opinion on him, so I`ll be doing that soon.

 

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11 hours ago, Elenion said:

Drake Marshall was lynched! They were a Proto-Lightweaver allied with the Escaped Inmates!

Okay so I'm back in this thread woohoo. Anyway, it's me again, the guy that always tells people to open their mind or something I'm a mystic deal with it. A mystic with an accompanying trumpet. Back to the actual point:

I agree that this seems to mean that there is indeed an elim team, but that does not (bold for fancy emphasis) rule out that there is conversion. I would ask everyone to still be cautious of the possibility of conversions. 

3 hours ago, _Stick_ said:

There goes my conversion theory. Not to mention the kill, which I suspected won't happen so early if conversions were a thing. Seems like there's one formed elim team?

Quoted 'cause this is what I'm on about. Who says the inmates don't have a conversion ability? Could be a second Evil group with conversion. Doesn't look like the initial rules rule that out. 

But yeah, don't y'all start forming trust groups or something when conversions could still be about for maybe just the initial few cycles. 

Otherwise where's the rest of y'all with your analysis and stuff.

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28 minutes ago, STINK said:

Otherwise where's the rest of y'all with your analysis and stuff.

I ended up falling asleep before I could post last night and I'm at work now, but I'll try to get some analysis done during my lunch break.

That said, I'm going to follow Hero's vote on Livinglegend. Normally I would probably let it go because LL's actions toward the end of the cycle are exceptionally blatant for an elim, which usually means they'e just a rogue villager. I'd have accepted that explanation except apparently LL claimed neutral?

Well, he didn't really. In his first post he said he has a non-eliminator win con. And in his (second? third?) he added that he can win with the village.

Neither of these facts discount him being a villager, but it's also unnecessarily obtuse if he is.

@livinglegend, are you a villager or not?

If you're neutral and you don't have an eliminators based win con, then why did you attempt to intervene in the lynch?

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