Long Game 43: Under the Banner of Adonalsium

[The Young Pyromancer]

I think there will be more total possible elims than normal, because of the fact that the elims are competing against each other.  Another question is should we ask survival to reveal themselves?

[Stick.]

3 minutes ago, Hemalurgic Headshot said:

The amount of investiture stolen requisite to release a Shard is not specified, thus, I'm not sure how we should plan investiture-borrowing. I have a suspicion that different Shards might require different amounts of simultaneous stole investiture to be released, or that the amount changes on the ratio of Elims-Villagers. Additionally, there is no indicator of what the current amount necessary is. That value is somewhat crucial to any plan, because it determines the difficulty of releasing a Shard tonight.

If we consider that different Shards require different amounts, the only logical trend to this is that Shards with a greater desire to be free, my example: Autonomy, will require less simultaneous weakening of their protective field for them to escape. Survival, I suppose, has a very low requirement, hence already being free.

The other possibility I suggested, Elim-Villager ratio, has two options for the current standing. One, it is quite easy to break a Shard free, because it gives the two conversion factions more wiggle room to start their win-cons, or two, it is quite difficult to break a Shard free, on the basis that the most players possible are alive at the moment, and thus have the possibility to break a Shard out by sheer numbers.

There is of course, a terrible and trolly possibility, and that is "X" refers to the Roman numeral X, which stands for 10. Which provides a baseline for all Shards, all the time.

I think the possibility of the number changing with the elim-villager ratio is plausible

[Droughtbringer]

1 minute ago, TheYoungPyromancer said:

I think there will be more total possible elims than normal, because of the fact that the elims are competing against each other.  Another question is should we ask survival to reveal themselves?

 I'd say no, as:

1. It goes against Survival's potential win con

2. Could help Odium later on

3. Let's Elims know who not to convert 

[The Young Pyromancer]

Okay.  Also, will someone PM me?  Because I might need further help.  Also, Alvron followed me, so more proof I am him.

[Droughtbringer]

Just now, TheYoungPyromancer said:

Okay.  Also, will someone PM me?  Because I might need further help.  Also, Alvron followed me, so more proof I am him.

PMs can't be set up til we have investiture.

[The Young Pyromancer]

I know.  After that.  Imagine Hoid just PMs someone 1st turn and reveals themself to the village...

[Magestar]

8 minutes ago, TheYoungPyromancer said:

I think there will be more total possible elims than normal, because of the fact that the elims are competing against each other.  Another question is should we ask survival to reveal themselves?

Actually I would say that Survival should reveal themselves.  Survival's wincon once they've been overcome by the shard is probably going to be pretty Neutral; having a nice neutral party would probably be a good thing for everyone involved.

At least, that's what I remember people saying from previous games.   

5 minutes ago, Droughtbringer said:

 I'd say no, as:

1. It goes against Survival's potential win con

2. Could help Odium later on

3. Let's Elims know who not to convert 

Why would you say it goes against Survival's potential win-con?  Do you know what that is?  I would assume that it's pretty much just "Survive" and that shouldn't be negatively effected by revealing.  Especially since they're pretty much the only person with the vessel protection so far.

Maybe not yet, though.  Maybe after they know what their win-con is, if they don't yet.  Because until they've been taken over by it, then they're still a free agent, I guess.  So much I don't know gah.  

A reminder;  Odium isn't necessarily against the village, right?  I don't see that in the rules.  It's an effective tool for any faction, at least while it hasn't been taken over by it's Shardic Win-con.  Even then, Odium can probably still work with the village, if previous games are any indicator.

This is a good point about the Elims knowing who not to convert.  I agree with this one.

[Droughtbringer]

1 minute ago, TheYoungPyromancer said:

I know.  After that.  Imagine Hoid just PMs someone 1st turn and reveals themself to the village...

I was gonna keep quiet about that just in case he actually did it

[Stick.]

I can't imagine why he'd do that

[The Young Pyromancer]

Hope to hit Survival and work together?  Hope to hit Khriss and work together?

[Stick.]

20 minutes ago, Magestar said:

reminder;  Odium isn't necessarily against the village, right?  I don't see that in the rules.  It's an effective tool for any faction, at least while it hasn't been taken over by it's Shardic Win-con.  Even then, Odium can probably still work with the village, if previous games are any indicator.

That's how i understand it, yeah

(Apologies for the double post )

Wow ok not a double post

Edited March 15, 2018 by _Stick_

[Young Bard]

Holy smokes... a bunch of new posts just appeared. I missed Orlok's post when I posted the last time, so I'll respond to that now. Then I'll try and get to the others after that.

13 minutes ago, Orlok Tsubodai said:

@Young Bard, I'd start with your first post. In this post, you indicate that you'll vote tomorrow despite there only being two conversions. This strikes me as a little unusual. In any of our games, we have eliminator counts between 15 and 25%. 4 of 22 gives us an eliminator percentage of 18.18, which is hardly unusual. I'm interested in your phrasing, which seems to indicate that we shouldn't be worried about eliminator numbers, or that we're being particularly adventurous in lynching tomorrow.

The more interesting point you make, though, is in suggesting that we prevent the release of shards this night cycle. This, I think, is a very dangerous view to take. If shards are removed today, with such a strong incentive for Hoid and Khrissala to convert, shards are very nearly guaranteed to be in village hands. This reduces the pool of shards that can be taken with a concerted effort by Hoid and Khriss' respective teams in future cycles. If we delay taking shards, we make it more likely that the conversion factions have their pick of shards through coordination, which does not seem sensible to me. Further, declaring the shard we want investment from gives everyone some degree of information as to our priorities in the shard we'd like to go for in further turns. This further helps target conversions, and increases Odium's ability to shatter the shards he wishes to target first.

On which note, I'd strongly advise everyone to refrain from declaring that they're taking investiture from Cultivation. It doesn't seem likely that everyone follows Bard's plan, and given the usefulness of Cultivation's ability, I wouldn't be surprised if it's released. Giving the holder of Odium a couple of the potential holders of the one shard able to undo his shattering seems like a very poor move on the village's part.

Hmmm... 15% (or 18%) seems like a very low Eliminator ratio to me - I'd always had it in my head as being around 25%. That said, I probably should have done the mental arithmetic for that first - 4 people seemed lower to me than it seems to be (perhaps it's because my head is dividing them into 2 groups of 2, which is a lot more difficult for both of those Eliminator teams to be able to function.) So far as I recall though, there has been a discussion on the Day 1 lynch just about every conversion game I've ever played, so if I was expecting some sort of opposition to the idea of a Day 1 lynch, I don't think that thought is entirely unjustified.

I know I posted this after you'd already posted, but I think that the villages best chance in the early game is going to be following the Sudden Death win con. In addition, I don't think the Eliminator teams holding a Shard is going to be as useful as you're implying, as they have a (presumably) fairly limited usage before they form their own win con - which would be even more problematic for an Eliminator team then it would for the village since this brand new faction will know exactly who the members of the Eliminator faction were.

The entire point of my plan was to make sure that no Shard, whether it be Cultivation, or especially Odium, was released in the first place. Since at least a couple people have already expressed interest in a charge from Cultivation (versus precisely zero interest in any other Shard, I might add), I think that at the very least, being open about what charges we're taking is going to mean people at least have a fair chance at releasing Shards we don't want released. If worst comes to worst, passing Shards between players who we believe are Village is also a valid plan (and a way of getting around the conversion rule, provided people actually pass them.)

[Droughtbringer]

3 minutes ago, Magestar said:

Actually I would say that Survival should reveal themselves.  Survival's wincon once they've been overcome by the shard is probably going to be pretty Neutral; having a nice neutral party would probably be a good thing for everyone involved.

At least, that's what I remember people saying from previous games.   

Why would you say it goes against Survival's potential win-con?  Do you know what that is?  I would assume that it's pretty much just "Survive" and that shouldn't be negatively effected by revealing.  Especially since they're pretty much the only person with the vessel protection so far.

Maybe not yet, though.  Maybe after they know what their win-con is, if they don't yet.  Because until they've been taken over by it, then they're still a free agent, I guess.  So much I don't know gah.  

A reminder;  Odium isn't necessarily against the village, right?  I don't see that in the rules.  It's an effective tool for any faction, at least while it hasn't been taken over by it's Shardic Win-con.  Even then, Odium can probably still work with the village, if previous games are any indicator.

This is a good point about the Elims knowing who not to convert.  I agree with this one.

I can see a lot of potential reasons for people to kill someone holding a shard.  Hoid/Kriss could aim for more power, hoping to get lucky.

Odium may not be against the village, but I'm assuming that his intent will be, and if someone grabs it, there's a decent chance they'll want his win con (I'm looking at you @Steeldancer @TheYoungPyromancer)

 

[MonsterMetroid]

Sorry for tagging you earlier @_Stick_ I wanted to just remind you that hoid cant take any kill actions according to the rules. But when I tagged your name on mobile my phone wouldn't let me type or delete another letter for some reason it was a pretty annoying glitch. So I decided to at least post what I had typed *shrug*

As for analysis, gosh I don't know this game has so many facets. I would be lying if I said I didn't think it would be cool to hold a shard, but at the same time each shard released removes us farther from the sudden death win condition. I need to go over the actions we are allowed to take and reread the rules in general. I dont think we can make the assumption that it is only khriss and Hoid right now.

dang ninjad by basically everyone,

43 minutes ago, _Stick_ said:

Seonid already mentioned in the sign ups earlier that we'll start with a shard out of containment. And here's this from the OP of this thread:

Dang I can't believe I missed something like that I will have to reread a lot.

took too long with RP and getting distracted. I will post my reads soon from the abundance of new posts because I do think Orlok is right that we need to throw out thoughts to help gauge when someone is converted.

-----

"Stormin Lass" Willie muttered to himself. WIlllie took pride in his job and trying to make sure that everything looked as best as it could but the woman would not wake up no matter how much ruckus, pointing and name calling he did. "Rustin' lass sleeps loch one of th' deid" Willie grumbled as he made his way to the containment room, trying his hardest not to think of the grass he left untrimmed under the researcher. The thought of it made the top of his balding head itch uncomfortably.

___

More RP to come once we get the write-up

[DeTess]

1 minute ago, Young Bard said:

I know I posted this after you'd already posted, but I think that the villages best chance in the early game is going to be following the Sudden Death win con. In addition, I don't think the Eliminator teams holding a Shard is going to be as useful as you're implying, as they have a (presumably) fairly limited usage before they form their own win con - which would be even more problematic for an Eliminator team then it would for the village since this brand new faction will know exactly who the members of the Eliminator faction were.

The elim team could pass the shard around, keeping the 'take-over timer' down. You're right about mentioning the risk of Ambition taking over its user if we take it out early and use it a lot though, and I hand't considered that risk yet. I still believe that it's worth it to get it out to deny the elim factions the use of Ambition's investiture, even if the one getting it then proceeds to sit on it and do nothing with the power afterwards.

I don't agree with the idea to go for the sudden death win-con in the early game because one Shard is already loose, and I suspect (though I could very well be wrong) that some incentive is in place for its current holder to not just put it back, just to make it difficult for the village to luck out and win on turn 1.

@Orlok Tsubodai, I will of course be sharing any suspicions I get once they're past the 'gut-feeling' stage. I didn't make as strong a case for information security as I have in the past because I've seen in recent games some decent arguments for the other side of this discussion. I'm still of the opinion that information should be kept secure and shared sparingly, but I also acknowledged that there are moments and situations when it's better to have a bunch of information out in the open.

[Stick.]

Here's my suspicions for now (100% being the most elim-y (Adonalsium's Chosen/Standard of Harmony)):

Bard: 60%

Orlok: 50%

MonsterMetroid: 20%

Randuir: 25%

Drought: 50%

And I'm still trying to decide about the other players who have posted.

[The Young Pyromancer]

What!  I wouldn't take ODIUM.  I'm too new to pull that off.  Unless I'm Alv...  I would take some other ones though.  Remember, as well, that Survival will work with the village.  The other two faction's goals run directly counter to Survival's intent theorized intent of staying alive, and holding a Shard is the best way of doing that.  Of course, Survival could have gone to Hoid or Khriss, in which case they aren't village.  Dang.

[Eternum]

Well then! This game is certainly off to an interesting start.

I'm moderately busy right now, so I'll leave you all to your discussion; I might join in soon enough, but I don't have any strong opinions. Yet. However, all I've done is skim the posts. Later I'll post said opinions, if I have any solid ones.

One question: Do Adonalsium's Chosen/the Standard of Harmony start with any players besides Hoid and Khriss, respectively?

Edited March 15, 2018 by Eternum

[Seonid]

Just now, Eternum said:

One question: Do Adonalsium's Chosen/the Standard of Harmony start with any players besides Hoid and Khriss, respectively?

They do not

[Stick.]

2 minutes ago, Eternum said:

One question: Do Adonalsium's Chosen/the Standard of Harmony start with any players besides Hoid and Khriss, respectively?

We're not exactly sure about this. Though I personally think they're by themselves, as of now.

ah oks ninjad by seonid

Edited March 15, 2018 by _Stick_

[Eternum]

Alright then. That's interesting. Well, that just means we have more time to catch them before they become unmanageable.

[MonsterMetroid]

2 minutes ago, Seonid said:

They do not

Welp I guess we now know that there are only two elims (side note... it feels really weird calling them elims since their goals seem good compared to17th shards goal to keep all the shards for themselves.) I'm guessing then that Seonid just hopes that we don't actually lynch one of them right away since that would be a short game then? If we can get both Hoid and Khriss then any members of there teams would basically become traditional elims come to think of it since their alternate win con would become impossible.

[MonsterMetroid]

@Seonid are the number of players they are able to convert public knowledge or is that only known to them?

Edited March 15, 2018 by MonsterMetroid

[Steeldancer]

 I will neither confirm nor deny any plans to SK everybody

[The Young Pyromancer]

         @Hemalurgic Headshot   

          The cloaked figure hopped down to the clothing stall.  He had heard that the Shard of Survival had been released.  It was unfortunate that he didn’t receive it, being the Survivor and all.  All he needed was a strip of cloth, to hide his eyes.  That one spike was distinctive.