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Long Game 43: Under the Banner of Adonalsium


Seonid

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Given that Bard had Devotion, we know that he was already converted during D3 since the shard was released the night before. So I'm only analysing his posts from D3 onwards, in order to keep the reliability of these to a maximum.

He talks about his suspicions in his first post, which can be very useful in figuring out who his teammate(s) could be. Below are his reads.

Elims reads on:

Arinian, Devotary, LL, HH, Straw (he said he's 'mildly suspicious' of Straw but also said that believes his Preseration claim)

Neutral reads on:

rand, Orlok/Joe, Pyro, Drake

Village reads on:

Mage, El

No reads on:

Eternum, Fifth, Jondesu, Drought, Monster/Ripple, Megasif, Sart, Stick, shane

Here's the post.

Ok so turns out these reads of his are actually quite useless judging by the amount of people he gave no real reads on and basically said nothing about while somehow using many words.

He has categorised two players as villagers, and I think both of them might actually be villagers instead of Adonalsium'sChosen that Bard was trying to somehow defend.

His neutral reads are basically people that he said were hard to read. Apart from Pyro, whose claim he seemed to believe.

At the end of his post here's the list of people he said he wanted to 'examine in more detail':

Fifth Scholar
Devotary of Spontanaeity
LivingLegend
MonsterMetroid

I reckon that list is fairly likely contain at least one player from his own faction. Because distancing. He voted for LL in his next post, and then for Monster later in his next post. Of course, he later removed his vote from Monster as well and switched to Straw. So I don't know. I could see vote on LL as distancing, considering nobody else had a vote on LL and he wasn't really in danger of getting lynched, whereas Monster had at least one other vote on them at the time Bard voted for him. 

He also blatantly suspected Fifth of being Ruin in his next post, so I doubt Fifth is part of Hoid's faction. Though that doesn't clear Fifth of being Ruin or part of the other elim faction.

In his next post, he voted for Eternum for being the 'most likely candidate for Ruin'. (Based on this being Bard hopping on the Eternum bandwagon and attempting to break a tie, I doubt Eternum is part of Hoid's team.) Bard seems to have entirely forgotten about his Fifth suspicion in this post. Interestingly enough, he next talks about how he thinks that Ruin being on Hoid's team is not plausible, because Ruin decided to blow Barize up. I think I probably believe him on this though. 

So FOR NOW I'm going to throw my vote on LL

 

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The problem with this plan is that if Ripple does have a Shard, we wait a whole cycle to be able to lynch her. In addition, who else would be Ruin? I think we need to look beyond the Rosharans and Taldains, and see if any of the other refugees are potential Ruins. It’s basically Ripple, or a redo of our whole analysis, at this point. But I’ll try Ripple first, so that’s why I’m voting her.

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11 minutes ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

Survival cannot Invest in another player. The only Shards that can grant Investment roles are Cultivation, Dominion, Endowment, Honor, Preservation, and Ruin.

You're (once again) correct. I thought the extra life was a kind of investment role, but it isn't. Maybe this'll be the last time I make a claim regarding the rules before checking whether I'm right. Somehow I doubt it though.

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Rippleglyf. I might be responding to a huge bluff, but I think we’ve been looking entirely in the wrong places for Ruin this whole time. After all, it was Bard, a confirmed Elim, who suggested we start looking for Ruin in Roshar or Taldain. And we just blindly listened, and are still blindly listening despite the fact that he’s confirmed evil. I want to broaden our suspects to those on Scadrial and Nalthis, who I find more suspect. Behold: 

HH

Elbereth

Magestar

Megasif

Scadrial*:

Drake

LivingLegend

Droughtbringer

From HH’s list a cycle or two back. HH is out, for obvious reasons. Mage is out because Straw Invested him D2. Drought is dead. That leaves 

Elbereth

Drake

Megasif

Livinglegend

I could see any of these four, tbh, but the most suspicious of them at the moment is Drake, as Randuir mentioned. Megasif is a bit too inactive I think, despite his weird posts. I’m not sure what to make of El but I’ll pass over her for now, and LL has drawn scrutiny for some other stuff...but I agree Drake has acted the most suspicious, and the most strangely. And even if he isn’t Ruin, I suspect him nevertheless. @Eternum, if you really are Honor, please “scan” Ripple today, and report the results to the thread. That way, if Ripple is lying, HH can roleblock her. 

But yeah. Who’s up for a last minute vote switch?

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(I forgot how to put things into colors on mobile)

<color=blue> I will be traveling for the rest of the turn, so I will not be able to post again before rollover.

I regret that I cannot pull together more evidence at the moment, but I will mention that your accusation of Fifth sounded very off to me. <color=red> Drake.

(this means I’m voting on Drake)

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14 minutes ago, Hemalurgic Headshot said:

(I forgot how to put things into colors on mobile)

<color=blue> I will be traveling for the rest of the turn, so I will not be able to post again before rollover.

I regret that I cannot pull together more evidence at the moment, but I will mention that your accusation of Fifth sounded very off to me. <color=red> Drake.

(this means I’m voting on Drake)

Fairly certain you need square brackets [ ] , and don't forget to close with /color.

Edit: yep, that worked.

Edited by randuir
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36 minutes ago, Fifth Scholar said:

That leaves 

Elbereth
Drake
Megasif
Livinglegend

I'm pretty sure Elbereth can't be Ruin, because she hasn't signed into the Shard since before the start of the last night cycle. @Megasif has been online several times, but hasn't said anything since Tuesday. I am entirely willing to lynch Drake, as his reasoning for lynching Fifth were shaky and his comment about trying to keep the elim teams balanced could easily have come from a member of Hoid's team.  @Drake Marshall, although you're online and will probably see this anyway.

However, these posts from @livinglegend are confusing. 

Quote

I have been on silverlight the whole game (until it exploded). Night zero I attempted Odium, night one I tried ambition, night three endowment, and four honor. I have no investiture, shards, secret factions or way to prove any of this. All I can say is I haven't been in any world docs until now , and can confirm this:

Quote

I'm sorry for my sparse contributions. Thank you Stick for your analysis of Eternum. I don't think Fifth Scholar is ruin. I believe that he went for Odium for day one as he claimed that action at a time that Odium seemed more scary (at least to me) than Ruin did. I also went for Ruin and I remember only one other person claiming that action. My guess is there is a fourth person who did not reveal that they attempted to siphon investiture from Odium who holds it, but that is neither here nor there. 

My point is since I don't believe Fifth Scholar took Ruin, and I now believe Eternum doesn't hold it, I'm going to go back and see if I can find anything indicating the other two.

If LL gives a convincing reason for this discrepancy, I will probably vote on Drake. If not, there may well be a good reason he's under suspicion from three different angles from Randuir, Fifth, and Stick.

New Vote Tally:

Drake(5): Randuir, Fifth, Eternum, Pyro, HH
Ripple(2): Joe, Steel
Fifth(2): Drake, Mage
LL(2): Stick, Arinian

 

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14 hours ago, randuir said:

That is assuming Hoid already has two converts, no other Shards are held by team Hoid and Drake and LL don't happen to be Hoid and the remaining convert. That last option is unlikely because of the random nature of the scatter after Silverlights destruction, but I do consider the other two options decent possibilities. I'll take this into account when i start looking into them though.

Let's quickly restate the list for those who forgot:

  Reveal hidden contents
  • Arinian - Eilen
  • randuir - Met
  • livinglegend - Unnamed Character 3
  • Megasif - Mega
  • _Stick_ - Stick
  • Drake Marshall - Everen
  • Elbereth - Elaria

Let's start with Arinian.

First of all, I'd like to wish him a happy birthday. Second of all, I don't think he and I would have had the discussion about the exact number of actions a shard gets if he was part of Hoid's group, as the first thing I'd do if I where hold was figure out the maximum amount of carnage I could get up to in a single cycle, which means figuring out the exact action economy. I don't think Arinian could/would fake confusion about that point if he was well informed. I haven't seen anything else pointing to him being village or an elim, so on to the next one.

I'm hereby clearing myself. Next! (What? it worked for HH.)

Next is LivingLegend.

I don't think you ever explained these reads, @livinglegend. In particular, I'd like to hear what made you think Monster might be Hoid and stick might be an elim, if those reads still hold.

That's a very non-elim thing to say in my opinion, because it's dangerous, attracts the wrong kind of attention and would probably not be true for an elim. I'd call it village, but it's explicitly not something a loyal villager would say :P

Next is Megasif... who hasn't posted since tuesday. @Megasif

He's also only made four posts since my last analysis of him, and I still don't have a village or elim lean on him. Actually, if it weren't for the busy times Megasif had mentioned before, I'd be suspicious of him for following the reasoning of others for voting without providing much input of his own and not providing reasoning for the LL vote (he had expressed suspicion of him before, but that was 2 cycles ago at the start of the game, so an update would have been nice).

I hadn't been particularly sure of Stick's alignment until her most recent post, which seems like a village level of effort put into looking into Ruin. Megasif did mention that the elims will likely be expending a lot of effort to find the other elim team, so this isn't as hard evidence of villagerness as in other games, but I'd expect the elim team to lay low when and where they can, and this is the opposite of laying low. The comment about trying to find an elim this cycle instead of going after Ruin again seems also to be a village one to me.

Now it's Drake's turn in the spotlight.

Drake's posts today have not really given me a village lean (I mentioned having a mild suspicion of him before), and his actions this cycle make me even more wary.

How does the fact that both Odium and Ruin killed cause you to think that Fifth is part of Khriss group? For starters, Odium and Ruin can't both be on Khriss' team unless she lucked out and managed to get both of them N0, as she otherwise couldn't both convert and take from a Shard, and Odium and ruin got both released in N0 so she couldn't have converted both of them (assuming none of them got passed around).

Honestly, this lynch on Fifth reminds me of an elim tactic I've used in the past, which is to use one unfortunate slip of the tongue of a villager to try and drive a lynch home. If there had been more arguments going against Fifth I would be less suspicious of the lynch attempt, but right now the only argument is Fifth mentioning multiple kills.

Before I get to voting, I'd like to quickly poke @Elbereth as she hasn't been on since Tuesday either. I'm still leaning village on her, and I'm also still acknowledging that she's probably good enough to fool me if she was an elim.

So, of the 6 suspects, Drake is currently looking like the most likely suspect to me.

Also, I'm surprised that no one has asked me this yet, but the reason I'm currently looking at Hoid's group in particular is that Young bard's death gave us extra information on them. I'll be doing the same thing I did here with Khriss' group next cycle.

With all due respect, I am not sure that disagreeing with my reasoning is the same thing as suspecting me.

You haven't given me that much else to respond to. You cited previous suspicions, but I already kind of responded to those, and you already kind of set those aside, unless you want to elaborate on that.

I could also point out that the way you are attempting to shrink the net of possible suspects is no more or less an elim tactic than what you are accusing me of. To clarify, I don't think that this is some kind of ruse on your part. I'm pretty sure you are making an honest attempt to narrow the pool of evils, albeit one that might backfire; what I'm getting at is that it's easy to highlight one behavior and make it out as an eliminator tactic.

And perhaps that makes me something of a hypocrite, as I have really only cited a singular reason for my vote to lynch Fifth.

Maybe I can try to atone for that. Or at least explain my thought process. There were other, perhaps less formed reasons I was reading into Fifth's posts in the first place, among them straight gut read, and the fact that Fifth was near the top of my list of possible conversions before the reboot. Relative to this cycle, I might append to this list that Fifth may have reacted with uncharacteristic defensiveness to my accusation, particularly given how they quite literally offered themselves up for the lynch earlier in the game. If I were to view this with a paranoid lense, I might conclude that I was right about Fifth being evil, but maybe for the wrong reasons.

Right now, I sincerely believe that Fifth is the best lynch in sight. If I die, that might give credence to my case here, but fair warning: I'm on Scadrial and will survive this lynch if it comes to that. I don't want it to though, and I'd be willing to compromise if it meant having a productive lynch.

1 hour ago, Fifth Scholar said:

Rippleglyf. I might be responding to a huge bluff, but I think we’ve been looking entirely in the wrong places for Ruin this whole time. After all, it was Bard, a confirmed Elim, who suggested we start looking for Ruin in Roshar or Taldain. And we just blindly listened, and are still blindly listening despite the fact that he’s confirmed evil. I want to broaden our suspects to those on Scadrial and Nalthis, who I find more suspect. Behold: 

HH

Elbereth

Magestar

Megasif

Scadrial*:

Drake

LivingLegend

Droughtbringer

From HH’s list a cycle or two back. HH is out, for obvious reasons. Mage is out because Straw Invested him D2. Drought is dead. That leaves 

Elbereth

Drake

Megasif

Livinglegend

I could see any of these four, tbh, but the most suspicious of them at the moment is Drake, as Randuir mentioned. Megasif is a bit too inactive I think, despite his weird posts. I’m not sure what to make of El but I’ll pass over her for now, and LL has drawn scrutiny for some other stuff...but I agree Drake has acted the most suspicious, and the most strangely. And even if he isn’t Ruin, I suspect him nevertheless. @Eternum, if you really are Honor, please “scan” Ripple today, and report the results to the thread. That way, if Ripple is lying, HH can roleblock her. 

But yeah. Who’s up for a last minute vote switch?

I will just mention that if I had Ruin, I probably would not have been the first person to highlight the threat Ruin poses to everybody, when the vast majority of the attention was fixed firmly upon Odium. Some people have that kind of subtlety, but I wouldn't really count myself among their rank.

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@Drake Marshall what post is this? 

Also, about my defensiveness- D1 I offered myself to the lynch because I was busy at the time, hadn’t really “gotten into” the game, and was tired and kind of hoping the responsibility of analyzing an SE game would be taken off my shoulders. But I’ve had the opportunity to recently get *into* this game, and in particular I’ve had great fun going on Ruin hunts and talking in world docs and hoping I’ll get a PM with Randuir, among other things, that have really made me start to actually enjoy the game. So now I’m having quite a bit of fun, and then you came with a lynch on me based on one word I said, and then Mage jumped in without explanation. So I was a bit frustrated, and got defensive.

I’m kind of disliking that lynch candidates are holding their supposed unlynchability above our heads, and I’m not too happy about it. I’d argue that the lynch should stick, and except for rare cases like Hoid/Survival the person the players lynch should die. If you’re innocent, you can be Returned. If you’re not...well, maybe I understand, but if the village worked so hard to find and eliminate you, they should be rewarded for their effort. While I disagree with Sart that the game is broken because people won’t die, I do think that there are too many ways for someone to worm out of a lynch (Scadrial/Preservation’s Investiture/Roshar exchange). So yeah, my vote’s staying on Drake. 

If anyone needs a vote count, I’m still updating the one I made 6-7 hours ago, on page 3 right now.  

Edited by Fifth Scholar
Grammar
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1 hour ago, Drake Marshall said:

With all due respect, I am not sure that disagreeing with my reasoning is the same thing as suspecting me.

You haven't given me that much else to respond to. You cited previous suspicions, but I already kind of responded to those, and you already kind of set those aside, unless you want to elaborate on that.

I could also point out that the way you are attempting to shrink the net of possible suspects is no more or less an elim tactic than what you are accusing me of. To clarify, I don't think that this is some kind of ruse on your part. I'm pretty sure you are making an honest attempt to narrow the pool of evils, albeit one that might backfire; what I'm getting at is that it's easy to highlight one behavior and make it out as an eliminator tactic.

And perhaps that makes me something of a hypocrite, as I have really only cited a singular reason for my vote to lynch Fifth.

Maybe I can try to atone for that. Or at least explain my thought process. There were other, perhaps less formed reasons I was reading into Fifth's posts in the first place, among them straight gut read, and the fact that Fifth was near the top of my list of possible conversions before the reboot. Relative to this cycle, I might append to this list that Fifth may have reacted with uncharacteristic defensiveness to my accusation, particularly given how they quite literally offered themselves up for the lynch earlier in the game. If I were to view this with a paranoid lense, I might conclude that I was right about Fifth being evil, but maybe for the wrong reasons.

Right now, I sincerely believe that Fifth is the best lynch in sight. If I die, that might give credence to my case here, but fair warning: I'm on Scadrial and will survive this lynch if it comes to that. I don't want it to though, and I'd be willing to compromise if it meant having a productive lynch.

I will just mention that if I had Ruin, I probably would not have been the first person to highlight the threat Ruin poses to everybody, when the vast majority of the attention was fixed firmly upon Odium. Some people have that kind of subtlety, but I wouldn't really count myself among their rank.

Drake, don't give us that. We all know you can be a sneaky backstabber when it comes down to it. 

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