Seonid

Long Game 43: Under the Banner of Adonalsium

1,386 posts in this topic

'Sup.

I've been kinda busy with work so I don't have a whole lot of time to do analysis or post.  Sorry.

Fifth.

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Why? Okay, Drake, the use of one word of mine (deaths) is being overinterpreted. I was leaving the number of deaths that would occur ambiguous, as I didn’t know how many would happen, so I saw little use in guessing a specific number. I said “deaths” to encompass all possible kill actions that could have taken place, including none at all. That’s it, and I’m kind of frustrated that a bit of misinterpretation is derailing the whole thread. And as for your claim that I knew there would be multiple kills if I was an Elim: If one Elim team held both (essentially) unblockable Shardic kills, don’t you think they’d have been using them a bit more consistently? Considering that those were the only actual kills that went through? In short, I’m struggling to see how you get “Khriss” from “hopefully any kills tonight will give us workable info.” I’m voting Ripple right now because I still think she’s Ruin, but if I wasn’t, I’d be voting on you, @Drake Marshall.

And Mage, why exactly are you voting me? Be really curious to know, since you didn’t provide much of an explanation. I understand being distracted and busy, but I’d like at least a bit of justification for your vote. 

Ripple, Pyro is probably Survival, and will survive a lynch attempt on him. In addition, can you provide more evidence to support your claim than a simple action schedule which could have easily been faked? If you aren’t Ruin, I’d like more solid proof. 

I am very frustrated, and a bit leery, of this weird lynch train that’s developing, and I urge the other people here to thoroughly examine all parties involved. I have a feeling this lynch could swing the game. 

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Very well. Pyro, though I wish you wouldn't be so bandwagon-y.

@Fifth Scholar There's not much else I can show. If I am lynched today, I can use my Preservation investiture to survive it, if that'll satisfy your doubts. Other than that, what kind of proof can I provide?

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If you don't, that would be of greater service to the village.  You would be returned, and we would have more information.

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6 hours ago, Drake Marshall said:

Eight hours left in the cycle. I believe there is enough information at this point that everyone should have some basis to cast a vote, should they choose to.

While it's gratifying to see an elim finally bite it... Last cycle:

Emphasis on kills, not a single kill. Fifth, why did you anticipate multiple kills last night? There has only been a single kill in the last four nights combined. I might suppose Odium to be a villager, but this remark makes me second guess that.

Drake, I understand the suspicion you might have for this post, yet I don't think its much of a stretch to say that there would have been a kill during the Night. If Ruin were to destroy a planet, it would arouse immediate suspicion, and with a little process of elimination, we could have discerned who Ruin is and lynched them. Thus, using their kill action was a safer choice. Though one could suspect that Ruin would use their kill, it was still not a 100% certainty. Same thing with Odium. Though Odium has not placed many kill orders, there was still the possibility of one last Night. If you saw Fifth's response, he claims to have used "kills" in the ambiguous sense, to allow for any number of possible kills.

Quote

But then we come back to the thing about multiple kills. It isn't unreasonable to think that several kills might be used, as there are theoretically multiple possible kills in the game. But given how the last few cycles have gone, with only one kill between the four nights, it seems far too coincidental to see that remark right before two kills appear in one night. The most probable explanation is teamwork. I am guessing that you are Khriss, or a follower of Khriss. And I think it may be a good idea to kill a member of Khriss' faction, because Hoid's faction is probably weakened and I'd rather keep the two elim teams mostly balanced and focused on each other if we can manage it.

I don't know why Khriss would want to coordinate Odium's action to Shatter a Shard, unless investing a Shattered Shard in a world still counts? And anyways, I don't see much connection between the two kills, enough to insinuate teamwork. Though both were Vessels, Honor would only have been gained last Night, and there was no way to know who had gotten it of the people on Scadrial. If Khriss (as you suppose) wanted Honor dead, she would have organized both kills towards players on Scadrial. Additionally, I'm not sure how they got tipped off that Bard was Devotion either, because I had no clue.

Edited by Hemalurgic Headshot
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Fixed the timer!

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Vote Tally

Fifth Scholar (2): Drake Marshall, Magestar
RippleGylf (2): Fifth Scholar, Pyromancer
Pyromancer (0): RippleGylf

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I think that Young Bard was converted night 0.  His activity experienced a sharp dropoff during day 1.

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17 hours ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

If either Drake or livinglegend were on Team Hoid, they could have summoned a team member to make it more likely that their team would receive Honour. Since neither of them did, it's probable that either Adonalsium's Chosen has another Shard, or Drake and livinglegend are less likely to be evil.

That is assuming Hoid already has two converts, no other Shards are held by team Hoid and Drake and LL don't happen to be Hoid and the remaining convert. That last option is unlikely because of the random nature of the scatter after Silverlights destruction, but I do consider the other two options decent possibilities. I'll take this into account when i start looking into them though.

Let's quickly restate the list for those who forgot:

Spoiler
  • Arinian - Eilen
  • randuir - Met
  • livinglegend - Unnamed Character 3
  • Megasif - Mega
  • _Stick_ - Stick
  • Drake Marshall - Everen
  • Elbereth - Elaria

Let's start with Arinian.

First of all, I'd like to wish him a happy birthday. Second of all, I don't think he and I would have had the discussion about the exact number of actions a shard gets if he was part of Hoid's group, as the first thing I'd do if I where hold was figure out the maximum amount of carnage I could get up to in a single cycle, which means figuring out the exact action economy. I don't think Arinian could/would fake confusion about that point if he was well informed. I haven't seen anything else pointing to him being village or an elim, so on to the next one.

I'm hereby clearing myself. Next! (What? it worked for HH.)

Next is LivingLegend.

Quote

Fwew finally caught up. Unfortunately that took most of my time for this morning. I jotted down general impressions which I'll post as well as a vote tally. I'll be back later tonight to flesh these accusations out but for now: 

Elbereth - village read

Mage - minor village read

Fifth - very slight village read

HH - minor elim read

Stick - minor elim read

Monster - minor hoid read

Pyromancer - minor kriss read

I don't think you ever explained these reads, @livinglegend. In particular, I'd like to hear what made you think Monster might be Hoid and stick might be an elim, if those reads still hold.

Quote

I can't help but wonder if anyone has received investiture yet. I also went for ambition and did not receive the shard. I'll admit if I had, I'd probably already be playing to its win condition.

That's a very non-elim thing to say in my opinion, because it's dangerous, attracts the wrong kind of attention and would probably not be true for an elim. I'd call it village, but it's explicitly not something a loyal villager would say :P

Next is Megasif... who hasn't posted since tuesday. @Megasif

He's also only made four posts since my last analysis of him, and I still don't have a village or elim lean on him. Actually, if it weren't for the busy times Megasif had mentioned before, I'd be suspicious of him for following the reasoning of others for voting without providing much input of his own and not providing reasoning for the LL vote (he had expressed suspicion of him before, but that was 2 cycles ago at the start of the game, so an update would have been nice).

I hadn't been particularly sure of Stick's alignment until her most recent post, which seems like a village level of effort put into looking into Ruin. Megasif did mention that the elims will likely be expending a lot of effort to find the other elim team, so this isn't as hard evidence of villagerness as in other games, but I'd expect the elim team to lay low when and where they can, and this is the opposite of laying low. The comment about trying to find an elim this cycle instead of going after Ruin again seems also to be a village one to me.

Now it's Drake's turn in the spotlight.

Drake's posts today have not really given me a village lean (I mentioned having a mild suspicion of him before), and his actions this cycle make me even more wary.

15 hours ago, Drake Marshall said:

But then we come back to the thing about multiple kills. It isn't unreasonable to think that several kills might be used, as there are theoretically multiple possible kills in the game. But given how the last few cycles have gone, with only one kill between the four nights, it seems far too coincidental to see that remark right before two kills appear in one night. The most probable explanation is teamwork. I am guessing that you are Khriss, or a follower of Khriss. And I think it may be a good idea to kill a member of Khriss' faction, because Hoid's faction is probably weakened and I'd rather keep the two elim teams mostly balanced and focused on each other if we can manage it.

How does the fact that both Odium and Ruin killed cause you to think that Fifth is part of Khriss group? For starters, Odium and Ruin can't both be on Khriss' team unless she lucked out and managed to get both of them N0, as she otherwise couldn't both convert and take from a Shard, and Odium and ruin got both released in N0 so she couldn't have converted both of them (assuming none of them got passed around).

Honestly, this lynch on Fifth reminds me of an elim tactic I've used in the past, which is to use one unfortunate slip of the tongue of a villager to try and drive a lynch home. If there had been more arguments going against Fifth I would be less suspicious of the lynch attempt, but right now the only argument is Fifth mentioning multiple kills.

Before I get to voting, I'd like to quickly poke @Elbereth as she hasn't been on since Tuesday either. I'm still leaning village on her, and I'm also still acknowledging that she's probably good enough to fool me if she was an elim.

So, of the 6 suspects, Drake is currently looking like the most likely suspect to me.

Also, I'm surprised that no one has asked me this yet, but the reason I'm currently looking at Hoid's group in particular is that Young bard's death gave us extra information on them. I'll be doing the same thing I did here with Khriss' group next cycle.

Edited by randuir
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10 hours ago, Fifth Scholar said:

And Mage, why exactly are you voting me? Be really curious to know, since you didn’t provide much of an explanation. I understand being distracted and busy, but I’d like at least a bit of justification for your vote. 

Sure.  I was suspicious of Drought, but it turned out that he was village, so I was clearly wrong there.  Then I was pinged, and wanted to just put a vote out.  I scanned the thread, and felt a gut suspicion of you.

And that's about it.

However, looking at Drake's reasons for voting for you, I do find them rather interesting.  It does seem a little odd that you would anticipate multiple kills, before they happened, after a game where most nights have gone by without a lot of kills.  Also this:

10 hours ago, Fifth Scholar said:

I am very frustrated, and a bit leery, of this weird lynch train that’s developing, and I urge the other people here to thoroughly examine all parties involved. I have a feeling this lynch could swing the game. 

That sentence just seems off to me.  I have this sneaking suspicion that you're ruin...  But I don't have a whole ton of evidence to back that up.  Your defense of yourself against Drake seems pretty solid;  I'm mostly leaving my vote on you as a placeholder for now.

10 hours ago, TheYoungPyromancer said:

If you don't, that would be of greater service to the village.  You would be returned, and we would have more information.

I don't love this train of thought.  Returned aren't nearly as useful to us as real villagers.  Although I do wonder if the information gained would offset the loss.

I'm not super suspicious of Drake;  I did a run over of his posts and I'm not feeling anything super off...  Idk.  @randuir, correct me if I'm wrong, but Drake wasn't on you original list of suspects, right?  And I don't quite remember you having suspicions of him prior to this cycle.  Could you elaborate on that a bit?

Edited by Magestar
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9 minutes ago, Magestar said:

I'm not super suspicious of Drake;  I did a run over of his posts and I'm not feeling anything super off...  Idk.  @randuir, correct me if I'm wrong, but Drake wasn't on you original list of suspects, right?  And I don't quite remember you having suspicions of him prior to this cycle.  Could you elaborate on that a bit?

He was number 6 on the list I posted yesterday. I also mentioned before that I was uneasy about Drake, in this post:

 

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26 minutes ago, Magestar said:

Sure.  I was suspicious of Drought, but it turned out that he was village, so I was clearly wrong there.  Then I was pinged, and wanted to just put a vote out.  I scanned the thread, and felt a gut suspicion of you.

And that's about it.

However, looking at Drake's reasons for voting for you, I do find them rather interesting.  It does seem a little odd that you would anticipate multiple kills, before they happened, after a game where most nights have gone by without a lot of kills.  Also this:

That sentence just seems off to me.  I have this sneaking suspicion that you're ruin...  But I don't have a whole ton of evidence to back that up.  Your defense of yourself against Drake seems pretty solid;  I'm mostly leaving my vote on you as a placeholder for now.

I don't love this train of thought.  Returned aren't nearly as useful to us as real villagers.  Although I do wonder if the information gained would offset the loss.

I'm not super suspicious of Drake;  I did a run over of his posts and I'm not feeling anything super off...  Idk.  @randuir, correct me if I'm wrong, but Drake wasn't on you original list of suspects, right?  And I don't quite remember you having suspicions of him prior to this cycle.  Could you elaborate on that a bit?

Okay, fair enough. That sentence was mainly frustration about the strange, bandwagon-y vote, and I was also calling for people to analyze and vote, but I was frustrated, so I said it like that. Actually, looking back at the tone of that post, it’s pretty bad, so my apologies for being overly reactive. I’ll try to avoid that in the future.

Your comment about Drake seems a little equivocal, like you aren’t trying to take a firm stance on Drake’s identity, despite defending him somewhat. It may be unsuredness, which is fine, but I’d again appreciate some insight as to why you believe Drake isn’t evil. 

Randuir makes some compelling points against Drake, and I’d feel a lot more comfortable voting for him if I knew there was an Autonomic aspect guarding Roshar, so we didn’t have to worry about Ruin as much. @Hemalurgic Headshot, do you mind coming over here and making us an aspect? If there is one thing I agree with Drake about, it’s that I’d rather use this lynch on an Elim. 

A point I don’t think is being brought up is that we can’t use Shard claims to clear a person unless someone’s actually tried to Invest in them, because an Elim could claim to have a Shard that a teammate has, in order to deflect suspicion. So an Elim!Eternum isn’t cleared of being Ruin, yet.

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Are there any confirmed Shards that can try to Invest in me, to prove I'm what I say I am?

(Edit: I realized that this would only confirm I'm a Shard, which would lessen the possibilities anyway, but that wouldn't clear me. I could try to Invest in someone, instead?)

Reading Drake's posts, I've always had this bad gut feeling about him. There's just something off, and Rand also makes good arguments. I'll wait for now, though. Drake hasn't responded to the vote on him, yet.

Edited by Eternum
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@Eternum There really isn’t, unfortunately. It’s mostly a small, but-if suspicion, so don’t dwell too much on it. I would discourage people from claiming Shards in thread, however, because you’re just telling Dominion who to redirect when they need a particular action. 

Edited by Fifth Scholar
Grammar
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Eternum, you could invest in me. Not like I really have anything else to do besides do RP and wait to kill myself. 

And happy birthday Arinian!

Edited by Steeldancer
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...Dark. Fitting for a Windrunner, too, I guess :P Sure.

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4 hours ago, randuir said:

Let's start with Arinian.

First of all, I'd like to wish him a happy birthday. Second of all, I don't think he and I would have had the discussion about the exact number of actions a shard gets if he was part of Hoid's group, as the first thing I'd do if I where hold was figure out the maximum amount of carnage I could get up to in a single cycle, which means figuring out the exact action economy. I don't think Arinian could/would fake confusion about that point if he was well informed. I haven't seen anything else pointing to him being village or an elim, so on to the next one.

Well I don't think misunderstanding of rules proves something, but you right I'm not elim ;).

4 hours ago, randuir said:
  • Arinian - Eilen
  • randuir - Met
  • livinglegend - Unnamed Character 3
  • Megasif - Mega
  • _Stick_ - Stick
  • Drake Marshall - Everen
  • Elbereth - Elaria

1) Randuir. It's not particulary useful for us to lynch Rand even if he is elim(because we have 2 elim teams let them catch each other :P), so I even not  going to analyze his posts, anyway he looking pretty villagy for me.

2) LL. I can say only 1 thing he flying under radar, all his latest posts looking pretty NAI for me. And we have many players which flying under radar\almost inactive so it's hard to say. But my gut read leaning slightly elim, mostly for tone of his posts.

3)Megasif. I'm not going to lie but I don't remember any of his posts *shrug*, but it's usual for Sif be unnoticeable. I would say that leaning villager for him, because his behavior is pretty standard and I would have expect a bit more activity from elim!Sif.

Also reminder that it's just my point of view on things I ready to discuss if someone disagree with me in something.

4)

4 hours ago, randuir said:

I hadn't been particularly sure of Stick's alignment until her most recent post, which seems like a village level of effort put into looking into Ruin.

First I don't know why someone would analyze Joe on being Ruin because if I remember right Joe in one of his posts claimed that Orlok tried for Odium's investiture. So Joe only can be Odium. Also I would say that Odium's behavior was very suitable for Orlok. But that's absolutely useless discussion because right now I'm leaning village for Odium.

Second I don't think that analyzing who can have Ruin is very villager thing, it's pretty safe analyze for elims especially when we have 2 elim teams. Honestly slightly leaning elim for Stick.

5)Drake I'm leaning village for him and at this point I'm too lazy to reread his posts but from initial read I have feeling that he villager.

6)El. Don't know... absolutely no read probably need to reread her posts, but later :ph34r:

 

Not very sure who can be Ruin but I think it  Ripple or LL. 

1 hour ago, Steeldancer said:

And happy birthday Arinian!

THANK YOU! And to everyone else whose posts I missed :D

 

 

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@Arinian Joe said that Orlok went for Ruin's investiture on N0 in the Taldain doc last cycle. 

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26 minutes ago, _Stick_ said:

@Arinian Joe said that Orlok went for Ruin's investiture on N0 in the Taldain doc last cycle. 

Oh right, I was wrong.

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So it looks to me that Ripplegylf is most likely to be ruin. I will hopefully be on one more time before rollover. 

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7 hours ago, randuir said:

Before I get to voting, I'd like to quickly poke [Elbereth] as she hasn't been on since Tuesday either. I'm still leaning village on her, and I'm also still acknowledging that she's probably good enough to fool me if she was an elim.

Elbereth has responded in the Nalthis world doc, and said that she would be able to post today.

3 hours ago, Steeldancer said:

Eternum, you could invest in me. Not like I really have anything else to do besides do RP and wait to kill myself. 

Does this mean you're planning on staying alive for another cycle?

19 hours ago, Drake Marshall said:

But then we come back to the thing about multiple kills. It isn't unreasonable to think that several kills might be used, as there are theoretically multiple possible kills in the game. But given how the last few cycles have gone, with only one kill between the four nights, it seems far too coincidental to see that remark right before two kills appear in one night. The most probable explanation is teamwork. I am guessing that you are Khriss, or a follower of Khriss. And I think it may be a good idea to kill a member of Khriss' faction, because Hoid's faction is probably weakened and I'd rather keep the two elim teams mostly balanced and focused on each other if we can manage it.

So here is Fifth's post that you were concerned about:

Quote

Steel, I see Ruin!khriss, not Odium!Khriss. Though I suppose either could work, in theory. We’ll see how kills shape up tonight. Hopefully, things will become clear sooner rather than later, and we’ll get some constructive deaths.

I read the use of the plural 'kills' here as analogous to using 'things' as a plural, able to cover any number of results. To make the phrase unambiguously ambiguous, he would have had to say something along the lines of "We'll see how the kill(s) shape up tonight". I could perhaps see an Odium!Fifth saying this, but I wouldn't say that the two kills were a result of collusion for the reasons Fifth, Randuir, and HH brought up.

@Drake Marshall, I am slightly confused about your statement that it would be preferable to keep the two elim teams balanced. A single member of an elim faction can still kill (except for Hoid). Eliminating an evil faction reduces the number of threats the village faces and makes it harder for the other faction to hide. Killing members of Khriss's team is all well and good, but that doesn't mean we shouldn't go after Hoid's faction. If you make a good case for why someone is likely to be on Khriss's team beyond accusing Fifth for his word choice, I'll be willing to consider that.

15 hours ago, Hemalurgic Headshot said:

I don't know why Khriss would want to coordinate Odium's action to Shatter a Shard, unless investing a Shattered Shard in a world still counts? 

Quote

Shattered Shards cannot be fused or invested in a planet.

From the bottom of page 1 of the signup thread.

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Vote count, which I will hopefully update as the day continues:

Rippleglyf(2): Fifth Scholar 1, Pyro 1, Steeldancer 1, Joe 1

Fifth Scholar(2): Drake 1, Mage 1

Drake Marshall(5): Randuir 1, Fifth Scholar 2, Pyro 2, Eternum 1, HH 1, Ripple 2

Livinglegend(3): Stick 1, Arinian 1, Pyro 3

TheYoungPyromancer(0): Ripple 1

I’d encourage everyone who’s commented but not voted to vote, and everyone who hasn’t commented to comment and vote. Currently only about a third of the players have voted, which is not very representative of the thread as a whole. 

Status: Up to date as far as Ripple’s vote on Drake

Edited by Fifth Scholar
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Mostly for the reasons others have said, I will vote for RippleGlyf as well. If I have time later, I'll start looking at bard's posts and look for his allies.

Taldain World Doc is still quiet. 111 words spoken.

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Devotary and I could hop there if you wish.  We made up over 50% of Nalthais chat, and Nalthais is on 6,238 words. ;)

Edited by TheYoungPyromancer
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