Long Game 43: Under the Banner of Adonalsium

[Droughtbringer]

Ripplegyf

My reasoning is that I do not believe that it is either 5th or Eternum, so I'll be voting on you, for now

[Steeldancer]

I don't think Fifth is ruin, I'm just suspicious of them. 

[The Young Pyromancer]

Yeah.  They probably got converted.

[Steeldancer]

Then why aren't we going after them?

[Fifth Scholar]

Accurate vote tally (I think Rae missed a few votes): 

Eternum(3): LL 1, Fifth Scholar 1, Ripple 1, HH 1, Jondesu 1, Pyro 1

Drought(1): Mage 1, Shanerockes 1, Rand 1

Fifth Scholar(1): Stick 1, Steel 1

RippleGlyf(3): Joe 1, Pyro 2, Drought 1

Jondesu(2): Drake 1, Fifth Scholar 2

So this lynch is much closer now, which I like. Not really sure people have a ton of evidence against Ripple other than “she may be Ruin,” but then again none of the lynches have much behind them right now anyway. 

And @Steeldancer, @TheYoungPyromancer, why am I suspicious/evil/a likely conversion target? 

[The Young Pyromancer]

Because nearly everyone agreed you were village a few cycles ago.

[Steeldancer]

Just now, Fifth Scholar said:

Accurate vote tally (I think Rae missed a few votes): 

Eternum(3): LL 1, Fifth Scholar 1, Ripple 1, HH 1, Jondesu 1, Pyro 1

Drought(1): Mage 1, Shanerockes 1, Rand 1

Fifth Scholar(1): Stick 1, Steel 1

RippleGlyf(3): Joe 1, Pyro 2, Drought 1

Jondesu(2): Drake 1, Fifth Scholar 2

So this lynch is much closer now, which I like. Not really sure people have a ton of evidence against Ripple other than “she may be Ruin,” but then again none of the lynches have much behind them right now anyway. 

And @Steeldancer, @TheYoungPyromancer, why am I suspicious/evil/a likely conversion target? 

Because several posts of yours set off my alarm bells. I would bring them up, but right now I really also need to finish up typing this thing for school that I procrastinated. 

[Fifth Scholar]

1 minute ago, TheYoungPyromancer said:

Because nearly everyone agreed you were village a few cycles ago.

...and this is bad? Generally, such things tend to be either deterrents or IKYKs, because converting a really obvious conversion target, especially the turn after they were “cleared” (btw, I was never actually cleared), just leads to suspicion on that person over time. Which is clearly what is happening right now. I mean, it makes sense if you have an unlimited number of conversions like LG29’s Autonomy, but why waste one of your two precious conversions on someone who will attract suspicion simply for being a good conversion target? Not saying it’s completely impossible, just that it’s a strange move when you could convert somebody that nobody has really picked up reads on, and not have your convert under immediate scrutiny, whether good or bad.

6 minutes ago, Steeldancer said:

Because several posts of yours set off my alarm bells. I would bring them up, but right now I really also need to finish up typing this thing for school that I procrastinated. 

I won’t distract you from your schoolwork, but I will (hopefully remember to) hold you to this tomorrow. 

Also @Elbereth you mentioned you’d vote later this cycle-could you please do so? (And everyone else who retracted their vote). 

[The Young Pyromancer]

Still, if the IKYK results in a 50/50 chance you were converted, that is FAR better than anything else we have currently.

[RippleGylf]

Firstly, if it wasn't clear from the list of actions I posted, I'm not Ruin.

51 minutes ago, TheYoungPyromancer said:

Eternum.  Ripplegyf.

That gives no information as to your reasoning, and I honestly don't know what you want from me. If I'm going to be killed, I at least want to know why.

35 minutes ago, Droughtbringer said:

Ripplegyf

My reasoning is that I do not believe that it is either 5th or Eternum, so I'll be voting on you, for now

At least that's some amount of explanation, though it still feels unsatisfying. Could you elaborate why you don't think it's Fifth or Eternum? And how you've ruled out other possible Ruins?

Also, I find it simultaneously frustrating and amusing that you both misspelled my name the exact same way. I mean, I've gotten used to most variations of it by this point, but reading that just makes me think this: 

 

It's a Ripple gif, get it?

[The Young Pyromancer]

IKR!!!  I thought that was what it was supposed to be.  A ripple gif.

Anyways, my reasoning was much the same.  Eternum probably was too inactive.  5th has other issues, but he has maintained that he went for Odium since day 1.  Literally.

[RippleGylf]

I'm not super aware of what activity levels have looked like the rest of the game, but it wouldn't take too much actual activity to send in orders to destroy Braize and Silverlight.

[The Young Pyromancer]

That's what I heard the others say.  It wasn't my arguement.

[Jondesu]

Sorry to see the votes on me, though honestly I can understand the circumstantial evidence. I haven’t been playing as actively as I’d like, and while I stated upfront I wouldn’t be doing analysis like I have in the past, I know my different play style still throws people somewhat, plus I am kinda trying to fly under the radar somewhat, mostly to avoid exactly this situation of needing to defend myself when I don’t really have anything to offer. I don’t know who Ruin is, I don’t have any special abilities right now, no Shard or Investiture, but I also don’t want to see a lynch wasted on me, unless everyone is super convinced they’ll get useful information if I’m not Ruin. I don’t think any of the reasoning I’m seeing is very convincing of that point, though, so I’d encourage those voting on me to consider whether my death will actually tell you anything that Eternum or one of the other candidates deaths wouldn’t.

[RippleGylf]

3 minutes ago, TheYoungPyromancer said:

That's what I heard the others say.  It wasn't my arguement.

Then... why are you voting on me for it?

[The Young Pyromancer]

I trust 5th.  And if all the smart, experienced people understand it, that's good enough for me.

[Steeldancer]

Well whatever, I'm going to bed. Let's please make sure a lynch actually occurs, whatever it is. 

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

12 hours ago, randuir said:

That still leaves a bout ten people as suspects. Focussing on those on Roshar and Taldain is probably a good idea, as both of those worlds are still vulnerable to an earth-shattering Kaboom. 

Since Ruin can worldhop during the day, its entirely possible that they went to Nalthis or Scadrial last night and intend to go to either Roshar or Taldain today. Being on a planet that blows up is equally suspicious whether someone travelled there or just didn't leave. If we're not ruling out Taldain, I don't think we should rule out any of the four planets.

10 hours ago, _Stick_ said:

It's on some random World. Its not on Taldain, the rest of the players there can confirm that.

I can confirm that Honor is not on Taldain. 

2 hours ago, Fifth Scholar said:

Rand, if Drought is an Elim, he isn’t Hoid or Khriss. He claims Doiminion Invested in him D3, and since Dominion hasn’t contested that claim, I can only assume it’s true. Therefore, if he is an Elim, he isn’t one of the big bads, nor is he a Shard. Which makes me reluctant to lynch him. 

Quote

 I’d put Dominion as higher than Odium, but potentially lower than Ruin, on our Shardic Top Priority list.

Why do you think Dominion would out themselves to the thread just to accuse Drought? Your post here indicates that you would be perfectly willing to lynch Dominion's Vessel, making it unlikely that they would be willing to claim.

24 minutes ago, TheYoungPyromancer said:

Anyways, my reasoning was much the same.  Eternum probably was too inactive.  5th has other issues, but he has maintained that he went for Odium since day 1

Arbitrarily narrowing down a list of suspects is how we got the Straw-HH lynch. Why have you chosen to discard the refugees on Taldain, Nalthis, and Scadrial as possibilities? The distribution of refugees is not skewed enough to support the theory that everyone not on Roshar is cleared.

I'll put in a vote sometime in the next hour and a half, but for now I'd like to tag @A Joe in the Bush. Have you/Orlok done anything that would clear you of being Ruin? In the world doc, you claimed that Orlok's Night0 action was trying and failing to steal Investiture from Ruin.

[Hemalurgic Headshot]

5 minutes ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

Since Ruin can worldhop during the day, its entirely possible that they went to Nalthis or Scadrial last night and intend to go to either Roshar or Taldain today. Being on a planet that blows up is equally suspicious whether someone travelled there or just didn't leave. If we're not ruling out Taldain, I don't think we should rule out any of the four planets.

You make a very good point here. However, from doc conversations I've seen on Nalthis and Scadrial, I can't see any particularly suspicious points from any of the players. I'm less inclined to believe that Ruin didn't just take the quick route to his destination. We'll just have to see what happens toNight. We won't get any information otherwise.

[RippleGylf]

I won't be on again until far after turnover, just FYI. Have to get to work. Fun stuff.

The thing is, if you are going to lynch me today, have an actual reason for it? Please?

[The Young Pyromancer]

Fine.  RippleGylf.  Jondesu.

[A Joe in the Bush]

1 hour ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

I'll put in a vote sometime in the next hour and a half, but for now I'd like to tag @A Joe in the Bush. Have you/Orlok done anything that would clear you of being Ruin? In the world doc, you claimed that Orlok's Night0 action was trying and failing to steal Investiture from Ruin.

Not that I can prove. I haven't left Silverlight. 

@Seonid When I was sent to Taldain, you put my name at the top of the doc, on the player list, as well as Jondesu's and Steeldancer's. From what i read, it was the same doc as the previous cycles, implying that players on world should be able to view who was previously on a world. My Question then is, If A player were to arrive on a world, and get sent away because they blew the world up, would their name be put at the top of the doc still? Or would it simply be ignored?

[The Young Pyromancer]

It's all up to you, Devotary.  Unless @Drake Marshall decides to do something.

You must choose.  Jondesu.  RippleGylf.

Edited March 29, 2018 by TheYoungPyromancer

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

2 hours ago, Fifth Scholar said:

Eternum(3): LL 1, Fifth Scholar 1, Ripple 1, HH 1, Jondesu 1, Pyro 1

Drought(1): Mage 1, Shanerockes 1, Rand 1

Fifth Scholar(1): Stick 1, Steel 1

RippleGlyf(2): Joe 1, Pyro 2, Drought 1

Jondesu(3): Drake 1, Fifth Scholar 2, Pyro 3

Changes in Bold

So with just a few minutes left, we have a tied lynch between @Jondesu and @Eternum. HH probably won't intervene in the lynch because he has to take two actions to worldhop and create an Aspect, but Ambition, Devotion, or an Elantrian could still manipulate the lynch.

I really don't know who to vote for. I don't want to risk a tied lynch though, so I will vote for Jondesu. If a better lynch candidate shows up in the next ten minutes, I could switch my vote.

[Young Bard]

Hmmm... I'm for an Eternum lynch, as he does look to be the most likely candidate for Ruin (he's been active enough to send in actions, which only really how active you need to be).

Quickly responding to Rand - I'm not nearly gutsy enough as an Eliminator to bring forward the analysis that incriminates myself as a way of soft-clearing myself, if that makes sense.  I'm well aware that could be an IKYK. However, to try and reduce the number of possible Ruins, I'll move to a planet where I think Ruin is least likely to be - either Scadrial or Nalthis, as both of those have Aspects of Autonomy on them - which should help to clear me.

Hmmm... Whoever it was that posted the "Ruin is likely part of Hoid's faction" theory (I forget who, sorry. :/ ), I'm... divided on this. On the one hand, your argument kind of makes sense, but on the other hand, I feel like the writeup explicitly calls out Ruin converting to his own win con, and I imagine Hoid would want to keep Braize so they can have their acolytes perform kills. Hoid may have a no-kill rule, but the same doesn't apply to his supporters, I don't think.

Pyro - believing something because more experienced players say it's true is worrying - who's to say they aren't Eliminators and aren't trying to manipulate you into following their argument? It's OK to look for other players for guidance - I do that all the time - but make sure you trust those players first.