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Long Game 43: Under the Banner of Adonalsium


Seonid

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Cultivation, please PM me.  I’m sure we can work out something mutually beneficial.  Also, if you do not wish to reveal yourself to me, please at least put me in a group with someone.  

I think this game is very hard for the elims to win.  However, since I can win with most/all Shards and Khriss easily, my main goal is eliminating Hoid and co.  So, I will have to vote on Fifth Scholar. He is likely converted, considering he is a nearly confirmed villager.

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12 minutes ago, TheYoungPyromancer said:

 

I think this game is very hard for the elims to win.  However, since I can win with most/all Shards and Khriss easily, my main goal is eliminating Hoid and co.  So, I will have to vote on Fifth Scholar. He is likely converted, considering he is a nearly confirmed villager.

That could be the case, but it isn't that far-fetched an IKYK that the elims would not recruit him because he's such an obvious conversion. In fact, I'd say its far more likely that they converted someone that's been flying under the radar. I'll make a list tomorrow of the people I'd consider converting if I was hoid or Khriss.

I wouldn't lynch someone just because they're a good conversion candidate, btw. The best conversion candidates are also often important assets to the village. It's better to keep an eye on the and act if you've got proof of conversion.

Edited by randuir
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I agree with rand but I would love to hear more from fifth this round :)

Also does anyone see Shanerocks on any of the world docs? If he is inactive thats one thing but if he is just pretending to be inactive that's quite a different thing.

------

Willie couldn't believe it Containment was worse than he could have imagined! The shards of breached containment units laid strewn about and the outer wall had a huge hole in it leaving dust and debris all of the floor. It was no wonder that security let Willie in cause they sure weren't going to clean this dump. Willie was no scholar but he understood why people had wanted in here, they wanted the power of the gods. At that Willie shook his head as he dipped his mop into some water "An' they say cleanliness is next tae godliness." Not to these new gods apparently

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Sorry, track meets, real life responsibilities, the whole nine yards. I’ll be on more tonight but I’d like to drop some thoughts.

First, Pyromancer, lynching me because I’m a good conversion target isn’t the greatest idea simply because there’s no way for me, or anyone else, to prove whether or not I’ve been converted except through analysis. And I haven’t made many posts since last night (which shall hopefully be rectified soon). I’ll say more when I have time, but for now I’ll throw a vote on Hemalurgic Headshot for previously stated reasons.

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19 minutes ago, Fifth Scholar said:

And I haven’t made many posts since last night (which shall hopefully be rectified soon). I’ll say more when I have time, but for now I’ll throw a vote on Hemalurgic Headshot for previously stated reasons.

I see that you are still set on seeing me die. However, I had already answered most of your argument previously. I didn't play D1 well. Yes, my posts were not helpful and I was generally a hypocrite. I confess to that. Is that basis to lynch someone on?

Unfortunately, I feel like you are playing as you would if you were village. Though Pyro did bring up the possibility that you are a convert, which is definitely plausible, I will agree with Rand right now that you are probably not a convert. That's all I have for now.

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Hemalurgic Headshot is probably right. I should put more thought into my vote, and analyze some other people before just throwing votes on people because I’m tired and lazy. That helps nobody. Although you are my number one suspicion right now, HH, and if after analysis I haven’t found anyone to suspect my vote will return to you. 

Ruin blew up Braize. I was initially a little surprised. However, after consideration, a few things stood out to me:

1) Ruin could probably just worldhop to a planet during the Day, blow it up, and then return to Silverlight. And do this, every single cycle, until all planets are destroyed. Doing this lets him blow up worlds with impunity, as he can just choose to land at Silverlight and not mysteriously appear in a doc at night. I advise that players use their action tomorrow morning to hop to another world, just so we can monitor Ruin as he goes about his swath of destruction, and catch him hopping during the day turn.

2) Straw suggested blowing up Braize. Whether this is Ruin!Straw, or simply someone who followed his advice, or someone trying to frame him, we should be cognizant of the fact that Straw suggested this first.

3) I’m not giving up my Khriss!Ruin theory. I see Khriss blowing up Braize as a serious possibility as part of a plan to monopolize kill actions. 

Second, we now have a lot of Shards loose. Good news: most are probably village right now. Bad news is that they won’t be purely village for long. As such, I suggest any villagers holding Shards either do a swap with Pyromancer, a confirmed Shardholder, to avoid letting the Intent control you, or simply let the Intent control you but still work with the village along with your secondary win condition. 

Wish I had time to do player analysis. Unfortunately, I don’t. But maybe I will later tonight. I’ll just end by saying that I strongly oppose leaving any Shards in containment, as it’d essentially be a free Shard for the Elims.

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@TheYoungPyromancer most people will want to leave a survivor alone unless they feel their hand is forced.

In practice, that means playing survivor is pretty open-ended. There is more than one right way to do it. Just try to have fun with it, I guess.

So what brought you to Sanderson Elimination? The story you are currently sticking to, as I understand it, is that you have been reading past SE games before you made an account? (if that is the case, then you probably know more about this community than I do, honestly)

Also, you're still typing with two spaces after your periods. I salute you.

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Thanks.  I found the 17th shard as a link on Brandon's website.  I was not allowed to make an account until just recently, but I read most of the long games that have ever occurred.  It took a long time.

Because you gave me advice, I will tell you some rules things.

Shades still count as dead.  They can burn investiture, but they cannot do anything else.  They can be returned, however.  If a shard is unshattered, it will be announced to the thread.

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On 3/19/2018 at 8:30 PM, Fifth Scholar said:

I think people are misconstruing what I’m saying. I’m not saying the village should have lynched me with 4 hours to go last night, which would have indeed stifled discussion, but I am disappointed that said discussion did not end with a lynch to cap it off (whether a lynch on me or HH), which would have allowed the village to obtain information along with the discussion. In addition, I am saddened that we lost a lynch to a handful of people who voted no-lynch last cycle, none of whom, I believe, have explained their reasoning behind doing so. But I did look at Kas’s post, and that is good reasoning.

(this has been in my multiquote for a while and I haven't used it till now, which is why it's old)

I don't think I'm misconstruing what you're saying - sadness at not having a lynch is understandable, yes, but the point Orlok and I were both making in response is that your particular death wouldn't have added pretty much anything to the lynch. Another death would, yes, and it's unfortunate that one didn't happen, but you staying alive benefits the village far more than your death. 

12 hours ago, livinglegend said:

I can't help but wonder if anyone has received investiture yet. I also went for ambition and did not receive the shard. I'll admit if I had, I'd probably already be playing to its win condition. Assuming that is the case, we now have a best case scenario 1 AC, 1 SoH, 8 vessels, and 12 17th Sharders. At worst we have 3 AC, 3 SoH,  8 Vessels and 8 17th Shard. In the latter case, we are already about to be outnumbered if the shards decide to work with the conversion factions especially if it's Odium or Ruin working with them. 

One, I'd point out that some of those vessels could be members of converted factions, and if (though I think it unlikely) we do in fact only have the original converters, they have decent likelihoods of having Shards (particularly Khriss). So technically the best case scenario is... 1 AC/1 Shard, 1 SoH/2 Shards (because I think Khriss could get two if she got them on the same night), 6 other vessels, and 14 Sharders. But that's even less likely than the best case you outline. 

Secondly, it's possibly a good idea not to indicate in thread whether you have investiture or not. I'd rather not give converters (if they have conversions left) any further information on who would be a better convert than who. It is fairly clear that some people have gotten investiture - I, for instance, was one of the one or two who took investiture from Cultivation in order to PM Orlok. More generally, though, is it really that likely that every Shard, both nights, has had either more than two people steal from it or none? 

12 hours ago, MonsterMetroid said:

Well from what I can conclude I dont think Odium is in elims hands as I dont see any reason he wouldnt kill anyone if he was in elim hands, this doesnt mean he has completely village intentions though as he might have wanted to shatter cultivation and it got released before he could. Ruin seems somewhat village due to them removing Braize as quickly as possible. The tough part is does ruin try to remove another planet if he does I would have to assume the shardic intent would be in full effect if it isn't already. That means he will probably nee to pass the shard if he doesn't want to get overwhelmed.

@MonsterMetroid, given what people have later said about Ruin's actions specifically being non-village, why do you claim here that removing Braize was a village action? 

9 hours ago, MonsterMetroid said:

The first cycle of the first game he has a great idea with everyone listing their suspicions as the game goes on but he never brought it up for this game.

Hm, interesting. @Orlok Tsubodai, I don't believe you ever replied to my comment about listing suspicions being a way for eliminators to keep to their baseline. Would you care to do so? 

8 hours ago, Steeldancer said:

I will second Rand. Trust groups, bad. Also, why does everyone have PMs when I haven't seen a single one? Me sad :wacko:

Why do you (and several other people, but particularly you) think that everyone has PMs? 

6 hours ago, TheYoungPyromancer said:

Cultivation, please PM me.  I’m sure we can work out something mutually beneficial.  Also, if you do not wish to reveal yourself to me, please at least put me in a group with someone.  

I think this game is very hard for the elims to win.  However, since I can win with most/all Shards and Khriss easily, my main goal is eliminating Hoid and co.  So, I will have to vote on Fifth Scholar. He is likely converted, considering he is a nearly confirmed villager.

Why do you think this game is hard for the elims to win? In theory, it's a balanced game, and so should be about as hard for them as for any other team. 

Also, while you later retracted that vote, you never responded to Rand's point about him not truly being a perfect candidate for conversion just because he was cleared village last cycle. Are you retracting your vote because people have told you that voting based on likely conversions is bad, or because you are actually less suspicious that he's evil? 

5 hours ago, randuir said:

I wouldn't lynch someone just because they're a good conversion candidate, btw. The best conversion candidates are also often important assets to the village. It's better to keep an eye on the and act if you've got proof of conversion.

This. Along similar lines, I can think of multiple occasions when high-profile players have been accused of being converted and lynched, without being able to defend themselves, and being rather irritated about it. Being lynched because you're a good player isn't pleasant. 

3 hours ago, Hemalurgic Headshot said:

I see that you are still set on seeing me die. However, I had already answered most of your argument previously. I didn't play D1 well. Yes, my posts were not helpful and I was generally a hypocrite. I confess to that. Is that basis to lynch someone on?

Unfortunately, I feel like you are playing as you would if you were village. Though Pyro did bring up the possibility that you are a convert, which is definitely plausible, I will agree with Rand right now that you are probably not a convert. That's all I have for now.

Honestly, yes. Particularly this early in the game. Hypocrisy isn't great, but it's particularly the not-being-helpful that's a good reason to lynch you: it's in the incentive of the eliminators not to be helpful (for instance, by generating non-alignment indicative discussion so the village has nothing to go on, as you attempted to do in bringing up the D1 lynch). And more harshly, if you aren't being helpful to the village then you're a better lynch than those who are. 

Also, the second half of that post says almost nothing. "Though it's definitely plausible you were converted, you probably weren't converted." It's hard to be more equivocal than that. 

Given both of those, Hemalurgic Headshot. At the very least, tell us who you suspect or trust. You've defended yourself this cycle, but only that - what do you think of other players, or their plans? What do you think about Braize being destroyed or there being no Odium kill? You can't help the village unless you participate. So do. 

Apologies for not posting earlier today. School's been cancelled tomorrow, so I ought to be around a fair bit. 

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@Elbereth I will do so, but currently I’m not in a position where I can pull together notes on most of the players. I’ll be able to fulfill your request after I get back from school, but that will be 8 hours or so. I understand that’s not ideal, I’m sorry. And no, this is not a stalling tactic.

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I know that I'd said I'd create a short-list of the people I'd convert if I was an elim this game, but after a first attempt at that list it contained about half the players. I've put it int eh spoiler tag, but it's not much use until I can narrow it down more.

Spoiler

Young Bard
Arinian
Steeldancer
Jondesu
Droughtbringer
MonsterMetroid
Megasif
Sart
_Stick_
Drake Marshall
 

I'm going to continue working down the list of people. Next up would be Orlok, but I'm going to skip him for now. I've established before that I'm very bad at reading him, and he talks enough that creating that bad read is going to take a decent chunk of time. I'll get to him once I'm done with the rest.

Speaking of someone talking a lot, let's take a look at:

MonsterMetroid

Monster started of Timeline-a in a way that seems village.

Quote

I really don't have anything different to say from last cycle... the problem is I know that by saying that the elims could easily hide by saying something similiar so does anyone have any ideas to generate some constructive discussion this cycle?

This is a trend that seems to continue. He's very active, shares a lot of reads and plans and encourages others to participate by asking questions. Chucking a vote at Orlok also seems to be a more village move, as it's not something an elim would do unless he/she was very certain of their case.

So I'm leaning village on Monster

Magestar

Mage has been very open about his actions these past cycles. I'm not sure if it's a genuine attempt to show that he's got nothing to hide, or an attempt by elim!mage to make us believe he's got nothing to hide. I don't think he was lying with his first claim, however, since Ambition didn't get freed N0 he'd risk getting busted if two other people claimed to have taken from ambition N0.

For the rest, a big deal was made of Mage claiming that his role hand't changed. That's somewhat noteable, but he was far from the only person to say this in one way or another. Some people have made note of his passiveness as well, and though I do see it, I myself am not particularly aggressive during the opening cycles either, so I'm not sure how alignment indicative this is.

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I'm not going to vote.  I got a really bad feeling about any of the lynch options, and I don't like what's happening right now.  There are too many people on the table, and I'm worried that the Elims are stirring us up.

@Magestar, in a normal game I might somewhat agree with this sentiment, but in this game there where ate most 4 elims, in two teams of two. Neither team has the numbers to stir stuff up independently, and I doubt they're are communicating since they are adversaries. This seems to me like you where really just digging for an argument to not vote.

I'not sure how to think about Mage. His open-ness about his actions make me lean somewhat village, but some of his posts make me lean elim. His open-ness could also be meant to misdirect. he probably did take from ambition N0. and I believe him when he said he doubled his actions last turn, but he could just as easily have gone for one of the other shards, with his claim of having missed ambition being meant as a smoke-screen.

I'm going to put Mage in the slight elim-lean category for now.

Megasif

I honestly haven't gotten much on Megasif right now. I seem to remember him being a bit more analytical than he is in this game, but he also mentioned time-constraints, so that's a good excuse.

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Monster is just a villager and I think that's coming across to me and hopefully others as well. Also contributing to discussion.

@Megasif, why do you think so? I agree (see above), but some more explanation would be nice.

I've got a decidedly neutral read on him for now. His defense of Mage is notable, but will be more interesting when we know the alignment of either of them.

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Any ideas on the criteria elims might be using be to choose converts?

I'd say they choose people that haven't had the spotlight shone upon them yet, and that are either in the mid-bracket of posting(Bard, Steeldancer), or have a track-record of not getting found out easily (Orlok). Since Mage announced having taken from ambition N0, and the 'double your actions to double your chance at a a shard' gambit seems somewhat obvious, he'd also be a reasonable choice if they want to obtain a shard, though mage has had some suspicion on him.

Edit: regarding voting, I'm leaning towards either mage or HH right now. I'd like to see HH's promised post before making a final decision.

Edited by randuir
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@randuir

I will probably be echoing your thoughts regarding MM. He is joining conversations and offering his opinions, letting his thoughts be known. I see that as villagery.

Besides that, I have a village lean on Randuir as well. The questioning he has been doing so far appears to me to come from more of a 'figuring out' rather than 'put someone in a bad light'.

Also I'm not really feeling HH as an elim. His willingness to participate although he does not have time for thorough analysis comes from a villager perspective imo.

I don't have a proper read on many players atm though. I'm trying to stay up to date but sometimes just skim through some of the posts :(

 

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7 minutes ago, randuir said:

@Magestar, in a normal game I might somewhat agree with this sentiment, but in this game there where ate most 4 elims, in two teams of two. Neither team has the numbers to stir stuff up independently, and I doubt they're are communicating since they are adversaries. This seems to me like you where really just digging for an argument to not vote.

I can definitely see how it would look like that.  Honestly, I really didn't know what to do and didn't have a lot of good reasons for doing anything.  I felt safer not doing anything, especially when I didn't know how things would turn out at the end of the cycle and I knew I wouldn't be on when/if things changed.  I didn't want to be the tiebreaker vote.

On another note, thanks for pinging me, because I wasn't really paying attention to the game. 

Quick question;  I may have missed this reading through the thread, but do we have any solid or even semi-solid proof that Pyro is survival?

Also, even if they are survival, what's the problem with killing them?  So far they haven't really offered any reason that I should trust them.  If they are survival, I'm not sure I want them to have the shard, as their actions seem to be primarily leaning towards the Elim side of things.

I still don't love the idea of lynching a new player in their first game, but it's not the first cycle anymore, and Pyro's actions have me on edge.  Worst case scenario, in my mind, we lynch a villager pretending to be Survival.  That would be kinda odd, and also disappointing.  It seems more likely that we either end up lynching an Elim pretending to be survival, or we lynch a Survival that seems all to happy to let the village just die.

So yeah.  Pyro.  I'll note that I'm also suspicious of Drought, Fifth, and maybe Orlok?  Seems a bit tunnel-y, but maybe that's just because I was on the other end of the tunnel.  I trust Rand, and MM, mostly.  Maybe Mega.  Not sure about Steel.  HH, I could see, but I'm having trouble reading.  It seems intentional, though, like someone who's playing hard to read.  Not like Pyro, though, who's being obvious about it.  Could be an Elim thing.

33 minutes ago, randuir said:

I'd say they choose people that haven't had the spotlight shone upon them yet, and that are either in the mid-bracket of posting(Bard, Steeldancer), or have a track-record of not getting found out easily (Orlok). Since Mage announced having taken ambition, and the 'double your actions to double your chance at a a shard' gambit seems somewhat obvious, he'd also be a reasonable choice if they want to obtain a shard, though mage has had some suspicion on him.

Nope nope nope.

23 hours ago, Magestar said:

I'll fess up to using Ambition's investiture to double tap Ambition and then I'll fess up to crying when I didn't get it.

23 hours ago, Magestar said:

didn't get it.

Bolded for clarity. :P

I didn't get Ambition, lol.  I would have loved to get Ambition, but right now I not only don't have a shard I have no investiture. :P So yeah, I'd definitely make a good convert.  100% good idea.

I haven't actually seen MMs defense of me, though I suppose I should go look for it.

And I think that's all I've got for now.

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