Long Game 43: Under the Banner of Adonalsium

[Orlok Tsubodai]

4 minutes ago, randuir said:

I don't think a massed run on Cultivation is a good idea, because it means a lot of villagers will end up wasting their action. It doesn't increase the chances of it ending up in the hands of a villager instead of an eliminator, but since it only improves the odds, and not eliminates the chance I'm not sure how useful it will be from an analysis standpoint(since Cultivation can be both village or elim, holding cultivation is NAI, irrespective of the odds involved). That having been said, I do think it would be a good idea for cultivation to get broken out, and in particular for her to end in the hands of a player that does a lot with PM's.

Also, from your second sentence it seems you're suggesting that whoever holds cultivation claims? Because that seems counterproductive, as that means that odium can easily shatter her next cycle if he wants to do that. And if he has no interest in shattering cultivation then breaking her out would not be a priority in the first place.

To clarify, as it appears I wasn’t clear earlier, my fear is that Cultivation gets used as a viciously effective weapon for manipulation. It will have a high degree of control over PMs that exist, and is likely to end up in the hands of an eliminator. My suggestion was that we reduce that very real risk by having villagers go for it, but I suppose that everyone being very clear that Cultivation (and indeed anyone put in a PM with you) may well be manipulating you serves enough of a purpose.

I wasn’t advocating that Cultivation claim, and more pointing out that whilst most people will take two cycles to get a single PM, if they bother at all, Cultivation can get four in that timeframe, and so may well become known simply through people being in contact with them.

[Stick.]

58 minutes ago, Orlok Tsubodai said:

I’d also invite further thought from all players on the danger of releasing Cultivation, given its potential to become a very effective tool of manipulation. If we do decide to release it, I suggest we go for it in large numbers, to try to achieve as high as possible a chance to keep it from the eliminators. That said, I think it might even be counterproductive for a villager to hold, in that whoever holds it will be subjected to significant scrutiny and potentially a mislynch.

We may not have enough of us on Silverlight tonight to release Culty and ensure she end up with a villager though, I think.

43 minutes ago, randuir said:

A number of the comments he's made seem almost like that of a spectator or annoucner, rather than a player. For example:

Quote

Very interesting. There is a possibility that all of the careful planning and analysis on the affects of the three released Shards could go out the window.

But will these new end game conditions benefit the village or the Elims?

If Survival hadn't already been claimed by Pyro, I'd suspect HH of being Survival and already having been taken by the win condition, just because his position seems to be that of an outsider to the main factions.

It has been mentioned before that him starting a discussion on a D1 lynch is a very safe thing to do, but I'd like to point out that he never actually took a position on whether we should lynch. he just presented the likely number involved, but as far as I could see never stated whether he felt like lynching someone was a good idea. I'm fairly certain this means something, I'm just not sure what it means. It's such a 'safe'  thing to do that it almost seems like it's meant to intentionally stand out in its safeness. I'd expect an elim to at least participate in his own bit of discussion, but going that route is IKYK.

I don't really know what to think of HH here. I doubt he'd do what he did if he was Khriss or Hoid, but that doesn't mean he's not some kind of non-village entity.

Actually, whenever I'm an elim, I try to advocate a lynch without actually initiating it so that the death of the villager lynched doesn't get traced back to me. Besides, right now, I think the elims wouldn't have participated in the lynch (or even pushed for it) too much as there's already enough villagers to carry out a lynch that is likely to target one of our own. 

50 minutes ago, randuir said:

Arinian hasn't really said anything that stood out to me yet. He's done a bit of RP and a bit of light analysis. I don't agree with his decision to vote for 'no lynch', but I wouldn't lynch him over it, and it strikes me as somewhat odd that others did find it enough of a reason.

Which is part of why I didn't vote for him last turn. There wasn't enough reason and seemed a little unfair. Like what happened to Jondesu in L35 XD.

56 minutes ago, randuir said:

Straw 

Seems to be doing Straw things, which somehow always make me suspicious. Maybe this game that suspicion will be right for a change.

This is what I tell myself every time I help lynch him, and then he flips village. >> However, as I said last turn, his vote patterns do seem odd to me, still.

46 minutes ago, Orlok Tsubodai said:

I wasn’t advocating that Cultivation claim, and more pointing out that whilst most people will take two cycles to get a single PM, if they bother at all, Cultivation can get four in that timeframe, and so may well become known simply through people being in contact with them.

That, and if I understand it right, only a Vessel of Culty can make group PMs, right? That would also give them away.

[Megasif]

@Elbereth and everyone else.

The point of talking about khriss and hoid being on different teams is very important, I feel, and I thought it was worth mentioning. Having two teams changes the whole ball-game.

Whereas normally, we have one elim team and try to figure out who it is, we now have two. One of the most basic ways to find them is: the elims are not solving and will instead try to give the appearance of solving, making fake reads, trying to avert suspicions from their teammates and save them from the lynch.

Here we have two teams who can actively be hunting the other team, which is their wincon btw, so that point about not doing much, stalling, diverting attention if an elim is up for the lynch suddenly goes out the window. 

Someone leading a powerlynch on an elim can easily belong to the other team and could be getting villa-cred for lynching an elim.

So basically, elims can be genuinely solving this game and it hadn't been mentioned so I brought it up.

On the other hand, why do you (Elbereth) think it's not worth discussing?

 

Also felt better about LL after their previous post.

Pyro is likely to be survival or at the very least village atm. No reason to doubt them at the moment.

Edited March 19, 2018 by Megasif
Some weird syntax error in the above

[DeTess]

1 hour ago, _Stick_ said:

That, and if I understand it right, only a Vessel of Culty can make group PMs, right? That would also give them away.

Well, it would give their presence away, but cultivation's release will be announced anyway. If I'm not mistaken, Cultivation doesn't have to be in the PM's she creates, so she wouldn't really give anything away apart from her creation of that particular PM.

[Stick.]

1 minute ago, randuir said:

Well, it would give their presence away, but cultivation's release will be announced anyway. If I'm not mistaken, Cultivation doesn't have to be in the PM's she creates, so she wouldn't really give anything away apart from her creation of that particular PM.

Ah, I didn't know that she didn't necessarily have to be in the PMs. Makes sense.

[Elbereth]

4 hours ago, Fifth Scholar said:

Agh. This is exactly what I didn’t want to happen. I wish I’d been able to switch back to HH, because this no lynch was not useful at all. I honestly fully expected to be dead right now, but I suppose Orlok’s point that a lynch on me would just stifle discussion was fair.

I think you guys slightly misinterpreted my blue text- I meant that my post count would be reduced, not that I would go inactive, and that I would feel that I couldn’t maintain what I would consider a normal level of activity, for me, which is 4 or more posts a day. I’ll still be able to post, just more like twice a day, instead. 

Hopefully someone will get killed tonight and we can get some actual, solid information to work with. As a final side note, people were using my actions last cycle as a way of clearing me- they should not have. I could have been bluffing, or confident that you would decide not to lynch me. My intent was for the lynch to clear me, and nothing else, but obviously things didn’t pan out that way. 

I’d like a thorough explanation from everyone who voted no lynch.

I agree with Orlok about you being cleared in this instance, where you wouldn't normally have been for that ploy. 

2 hours ago, Orlok Tsubodai said:

@Fifth Scholar, Kas has a very good post somewhere from LG12 that El likes to reference. I’ll try to dig it out, but the important point it makes is that the threat of a lynch with intent to kill is what generates most of the information, as opposed to the lynch itself.

Here you go. Everyone go and read that if you haven't, as it's excellent. 

2 hours ago, randuir said:

He also invoked the IKYK around him being or not being Odium, but going deeper in that will just lead down a a rabbit hole leading to IKYKTIKYKIKYKIKYK.

Why the T? 

1 hour ago, Megasif said:

@Elbereth and everyone else.

The point of talking about khriss and hoid being on different teams is very important, I feel, and I thought it was worth mentioning. Having two teams changes the whole ball-game.

Whereas normally, we have one elim team and try to figure out who it is, we now have two. One of the most basic ways to find them is: the elims are not solving and will instead try to give the appearance of solving, making fake reads, trying to avert suspicions from their teammates and save them from the lynch.

Here we have two teams who can actively be hunting the other team, which is their wincon btw, so that point about not doing much, stalling, diverting attention if an elim is up for the lynch suddenly goes out the window. 

Someone leading a powerlynch on an elim can easily belong to the other team and could be getting villa-cred for lynching an elim.

So basically, elims can be genuinely solving this game and it hadn't been mentioned so I brought it up.

On the other hand, why do you (Elbereth) think it's not worth discussing?

Interesting. I agree that that's a valid point to bring up - it isn't how I read your initial post. Pointing out that the elims can act more like villagers because they can hunt each other is worth pointing out. Saying that they'll be hunting each other, without mentioning that this will be through the lynch, gives an entirely different impression to me, and one that's of far less worth. 

Thank you for clarifying, then. 

General thoughts: I'm also irritated about the no lynch, and also agree that Pyro is pretty likely to be Survival. My suspicion of HH remains, and I'll likely vote on him again next cycle unless I find something more suspicious in the meantime. 

And I'm pretty sure it's already been asked, but I'll echo the question put to those who voted no lynch: why? To me, it seems like a way to remain neutral and not get involved in the petty dealings of figuring out who will die, despite the fact that someone will have to if the game's going to advance. 

More thoughts (and hopefully RP, as I just realised I haven't RPed in quite a while) coming later. 

[DeTess]

9 minutes ago, Elbereth said:

Why the T? 

To represent an (in hindsight unnecessary) 'that'.

[Droughtbringer]

Cultivation: I don't feel that getting Cultivation in village hands is going to stop PM manipulation to the point that it will be useful for us to focus a lot of our actions on. Although, I do think it is decently important to try and prevent Odium from possibly killing it. 

[Jondesu]

For the record, when I was advocating no lynch due to the odds, I still had two Elims in my mind, forgetting they’d had time for conversions. I do suspect one of them might have held off, if not both, but it’s impossible to say for sure, so it wasn’t as good of a reason as I thought. I wasn’t awake to read and respond to the massive number of posts that happened afterwards, though.

And Stick, I appreciate you remembering that.  ‘Twas certainly unfortunate, and has affected how I decide on a lynch target when there’s simply bad or different logic.

Edited March 19, 2018 by Jondesu
Corrected misspelling

[livinglegend]

4 hours ago, Steeldancer said:

Well. That was thoroughly confusing to read. Also, did I seriously read a post ever Orlok used all caps? I've never seen that before. 

Also, dang, Pyro sounds a lot like I think I did in my early games. 

Ahah! I figured it out. Pyromancer and Steel are the same person.  

1 hour ago, Elbereth said:

Here you go. Everyone go and read that if you haven't, as it's excellent

Wow. You weren't kidding. That is good stuff. Thank you for the recommendation.

4 hours ago, Orlok Tsubodai said:

I’d also invite further thought from all players on the danger of releasing Cultivation, given its potential to become a very effective tool of manipulation. If we do decide to release it, I suggest we go for it in large numbers, to try to achieve as high as possible a chance to keep it from the eliminators.

I may not fully understand the dangers of pm's, but I think there are other shards I'd be more afraid of Adolnasium''s Chosen or Standard of Harmony gaining control of. Also going back to my point from Night 0 before reset, if we want to coordinate, I'm in favor of trying to get as many people charges of investiture as possible. I understand this kind of coordination has issues and it let's the evil teams pick and choose which shards are released, but I think there is information to be gleaned from which shards they choose to release and we have a better idea of to whom the shards may have gone. 

Seeing as how this is an unpopular opinion, I will just recommend everyone go for different shards. Get your IKYK's on how many are going for Cultivation, and try to get some kind of investiture because I like the idea of having some ability almost guaranteed over having a small chance of getting a lot of power.

 

I had a fourth thought, but I can't remember and need to go. If I remember I'll post it later.

[MonsterMetroid]

3 hours ago, Orlok Tsubodai said:

I wasn’t advocating that Cultivation claim, and more pointing out that whilst most people will take two cycles to get a single PM, if they bother at all, Cultivation can get four in that timeframe, and so may well become known simply through people being in contact with them.

I just wanted to point out that cultivation doesn't have to be in all PM's that they create. I guess Personally I am afraid that if we don't release cultivation then it will be shattered and Odium will become much harder to counter should it be in less savory hands. To this same end I actually would like both cultivation and dominion to be released tonight but rand has a good point that it will prevent a high amount of villagers from getting investiture if we focus so I am not sure what is the best move here... and unfortunately I think it will only become apparent what is the best move to make after we see what the various players do tonight.

[The Young Pyromancer]

Yes, I can still win if I hold the Shattered shard of Survival.  Yes, I am neutral.

Thank you for not killing me!  And stick, it was RNG the second time too.

[MonsterMetroid]

Ok so it definately appears to me that whoever holds autonomy plans on obtaining the intent of the shard based on how quickly they moved out and placed an aspect. WOuld anyone like to share who is on nalthis currently?

[The Young Pyromancer]

Why you shouldn’t double-tap me:

Odium and Ruin:

If you claim in thread and pass your Shard to me, I will pass it back.  Thus, you remain uncorrupted by your intent, and I do not have to die.  I am willing to do a lot of things to not die.  Also, if you do not want to do the passing-back-and-forth thing, you could pass the Shard to me if you wish.  I will remain uncorrupted, because I am immune to the effects of other shards.  You do not have to do this.  I am simply presenting an option.  No, I am not Hoid/Khriss fishing for Shards.  I just want to present all the options that result in me not dying.

Odium:

I can act as an information-network.  I may learn the whereabouts of other Shards, which I can tell you.  If you spare me, you are also able to go after contained Shards that will likely oppose you more if they are freed.  If you decide to be village, you can rest assured that I am willing to work with you.  I can win with any faction, so if you are also Khriss or Hoid, I can do that too, especially if you are Khriss.

Ruin:

If your win con is blowing up all the planets, I can win with you.  The village will oppose you, but I will not.  If you wish to progress the game, it would make much more sense to blow up Silverlight than to attempt to kill me.  If you are village, I can work with you.  If you are also Khriss or Hoid, I can win with you too, especially if you are Khriss.

Odium and Ruin, I hope you make the right choice and don't kill me.  Thank you for your time.

 

Now that that is dealt with, I will move on to other business.  Anyone who has Culty’s Investiture, feel free to contact me.  I can act as an information hub.  I can also probably be bribed by charges of Investiture to prevent you from being subject to scans/vote manipulation.  I also can act as the “mouthpiece” of various Shards.

Edited March 19, 2018 by TheYoungPyromancer

[Droughtbringer]

1 hour ago, TheYoungPyromancer said:

Why you shouldn’t double-tap me:

Odium and Ruin:

If you claim in thread and pass your Shard to me, I will pass it back.  Thus, you remain uncorrupted by your intent, and I do not have to die.  I am willing to do a lot of things to not die.  Also, if you do not want to do the passing-back-and-forth thing, you could pass the Shard to me if you wish.  I will remain uncorrupted, because I am immune to the effects of other shards.  You do not have to do this.  I am simply presenting an option.  No, I am not Hoid/Khriss fishing for Shards.  I just want to present all the options that result in me not dying.

Odium:

I can act as an information-network.  I may learn the whereabouts of other Shards, which I can tell you.  If you spare me, you are also able to go after contained Shards that will likely oppose you more if they are freed.  If you decide to be village, you can rest assured that I am willing to work with you.  I can win with any faction, so if you are also Khriss or Hoid, I can do that too, especially if you are Khriss.

Ruin:

If your win con is blowing up all the planets, I can win with you.  The village will oppose you, but I will not.  If you wish to progress the game, it would make much more sense to blow up Silverlight than to attempt to kill me.  If you are village, I can work with you.  If you are also Khriss or Hoid, I can win with you too, especially if you are Khriss.

Odium and Ruin, I hope you make the right choice and don't kill me.  Thank you for your time.

 

Now that that is dealt with, I will move on to other business.  Anyone who has Culty’s Investiture, feel free to contact me.  I can act as an information hub.  I can also probably be bribed by charges of Investiture to prevent you from being subject to scans/vote manipulation.  I also can act as the “mouthpiece” of various Shards.

So you are planning on taking up a position that is just helping everyone, then? Alright. that is fair.

[The Young Pyromancer]

Maybe.  I mean, it seems the best way to not die.  If I am helping you, you will be more reluctant to murder me.  Of course, I will probably help some more than others...

[Elbereth]

I notice that the one group which you don't really mention helping meaningfully is the village. 

[MonsterMetroid]

11 minutes ago, Elbereth said:

I notice that the one group which you don't really mention helping meaningfully is the village. 

He will mention us tomorrow when it is lynch time again I'm pretty sure.

[The Young Pyromancer]

That is because if Odium and Ruin both decide to attack me I die.  Otherwise, I'm fine for tonight.

Plus, the village has so many separate goals that it takes longer to figure out what I can do for you.

Edited March 19, 2018 by TheYoungPyromancer

[Arinian]

4 minutes ago, TheYoungPyromancer said:

That is because if Odium and Ruin both decide to attack me I die.  Otherwise, I'm fine for tonight.

Well both Odium and Ruin can kill you alone, all what they need is travel on Roshar and exchange charge of investiture on Odium's investiture and double tap you with that.

Because if you maybe missed their Shardic kill bypasses passive Vessel protection.

[The Young Pyromancer]

Yes, but not on this night.

Did you like my speech?

Edited March 19, 2018 by TheYoungPyromancer

[Elbereth]

That doesn't engender a particular confidence in me that you'll help the village, though. Particularly given the points I mentioned the other day about Survival being a great negotiator for everyone, but particularly the Shards and Hoid/Khriss. Less so the village. If you dance to the whims of whoever might kill you, and we ordinarily can't do so, it's in our interest to do our best to become a danger to you so that you either don't work against us or are gone. 

And Monster, I'm aware of that, but see no reason not to discuss it now given there's not much else being discussed at moment. 

[The Young Pyromancer]

The reason I am paying attention to Odium and Ruin is they can immediately kill me.  Also, they are one person, so they are easier to anticipate.  My current plan is to focus on whomever would be able to kill me first.  If the village comes to a consensus on what I should do, I will happily listen to them.  However, the village needs to come to a consensus, otherwise I risk angering more villagers than I gain the friendship of.

[Arinian]

8 minutes ago, TheYoungPyromancer said:

The reason I am paying attention to Odium and Ruin is they can immediately kill me.  Also, they are one person, so they are easier to anticipate.  My current plan is to focus on whomever would be able to kill me first.  If the village comes to a consensus on what I should do, I will happily listen to them.  However, the village needs to come to a consensus, otherwise I risk angering more villagers than I gain the friendship of.

I doubt that they would attack you for this they should to cooperate but they not one person and can't be sure that if one of them will attack you other will do it. So I don't think that you should be so nervous about double tap from both of them, but scenario that I proposed in previous post is much more probable.

17 minutes ago, Elbereth said:

That doesn't engender a particular confidence in me that you'll help the village, though. Particularly given the points I mentioned the other day about Survival being a great negotiator for everyone, but particularly the Shards and Hoid/Khriss. Less so the village. If you dance to the whims of whoever might kill you, and we ordinarily can't do so, it's in our interest to do our best to become a danger to you so that you either don't work against us or are gone. 

And Monster, I'm aware of that, but see no reason not to discuss it now given there's not much else being discussed at moment. 

El looks really agressive this game, are we sure that she isn't possessed by some evil power? 

[MonsterMetroid]

19 minutes ago, Elbereth said:

That doesn't engender a particular confidence in me that you'll help the village, though. Particularly given the points I mentioned the other day about Survival being a great negotiator for everyone, but particularly the Shards and Hoid/Khriss. Less so the village. If you dance to the whims of whoever might kill you, and we ordinarily can't do so, it's in our interest to do our best to become a danger to you so that you either don't work against us or are gone. 

And Monster, I'm aware of that, but see no reason not to discuss it now given there's not much else being discussed at moment. 

Oh sorry I should have put a sarcasm face on my statement I was. No I actually agree with you fully and think it is good to bring up now because like you said we cant put much pressure on him besides the lynch and so have less at this bargaining table than others.

3 minutes ago, Arinian said:

El looks really agressive this game, are we sure that she isn't possessed by some evil power? 

Speaking of EVIL do you have any comment on my allegations yesterday?