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Long Game 43: Under the Banner of Adonalsium


Seonid

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6 minutes ago, TheYoungPyromancer said:

Read 5th scholar's post, sart

 

The one saying we should stop all discussion and vote for 5th Scholar? No thanks. We've still got 4 hours in this cycle, which is plenty of time to discuss our suspicions and draw more information. I've been in the position of signing up for a game I don't have time for, and I know it sucks. However, I don't want to waste this lynch. In this case, I would rather have the GMs deal with it, whether through a pinch-hitter, or just revving up the inactivity filter. That may be harsh of me, but I think it's the best outcome for the village.

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Right. A few things to say, before I go study philosophy. 

@TheYoungPyromancer, regarding being difficult to read: that's a viable strategy over time, yes, but does take away information from the village when you're village - it helps you, but not your team, particularly if everyone else gets suspicious of you for it and is distracted from whoever the actual elims are. 

Also, it was pointed out to you that we can't get rid of Odium, and I'm not sure you ever responded. Did I miss that? If not, what are your thoughts on the matter?

@Megasif, why bring up the point about Hoid and Khriss being enemies? While probably true, particularly as the game gets later, I'm not sure what the point is in discussing it now, and don't think it provides anything except a slight false sense of security. 

Regarding Fifth's first post about lynching HH, I'm fine with it and would be happy to lynch Hemalurgic Headshot (far happier than lynching Fifth, who I think is good with about 98% certainty). Devotary. I would point out that Fifth misinterpreted one of my points, about HH bringing up the lynch discussion - it's not that "not having a read one way or another on a player who has posted as frequently as HH has this game isn't good simply on the basis that said person should have said something analyzable". It's that while whether-to-lynch discussion tends to be NAI, bringing up that topic in the first place is not, and makes me lean elim on him. The village doesn't benefit from NAI discussion; eliminators do. 

@Orlok Tsubodai, minor clarification because I can't remember if I pointed it out already - we've had at least two SK wins in the history of SE. The point stands that it's vanishingly rare, though. 

I'd also note that 27% is not "much higher than in normal games", Orlok. 2% away from the high end is not that high, particularly since it's not a single cohesive team. While the conversion teams are definitely dangerous, I feel that you're overemphasising their danger a bit too much. 

@Droughtbringer, I don't really understand your defence of Jondesu. The line "waiting will give us more of a chance of hitting elims", in particular, strikes me as off. It's true, as with all conversion games, but that doesn't give an actual reason we shouldn't be lynching now as well. Just because there will be more elims than there are now doesn't mean we can't try to find those that already exist. (And I don't think that advocating no lynch is all that alignment-indicative, particularly as from memory he's referencing previous playstyle. If village!Jon would do it and elim!Jon knows that, elim!Jon is going to do it.) I don't have any strong read either way on Jondesu myself, but don't like your defence there. 

12 hours ago, Arinian said:

Right now when most players sitting at Silverlight trying to get Shards, Khriss can travel on certain world with her converts and get good boost in investiture, just imagine if Khriss have Odium, that can end pretty bad for us.

While true, I'm fairly sure (though not absolutely certain) that if a Shard is invested in a world, we get told, and could benefit just as well as Khriss' converts from the invested Shard. Also, Khriss and her converts moving to said world would be dangerous, as we'd be specifically looking for that sort of thing. 

Lastly, I agree with Sart. Lynching Fifth, while it might give us information about what's happened previously in the cycle, cuts off the flow of said information now and gives us no more if we just lynch him. I'd rather have more discussion, and lynch someone I think is evil - I'd far prefer leaving a semi-inactive very likely villager alive to go after a player who's far less likely to be village. 

I likely won't be on again until the night turn, or only briefly, so good luck to all. 

 

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2 minutes ago, Elbereth said:

Also, it was pointed out to you that we can't get rid of Odium, and I'm not sure you ever responded. Did I miss that? If not, what are your thoughts on the matter?

Actually this is something I have seen a couple times now and it isnt true... I was going to wait until the night cycle to bring it up but we can get rid of Odium. I double checked with Seonid and Dominion can indeed redirect Odiums own action to Odium and Odium in turn would shatter himself.

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Ah, right, yes - I had that thought when reading and forgot by the time I got to posting. While true, it's vanishingly unlikely that that actually happens, so I'll amend my statement to "practically impossible", with the note that in order for Odium definitely not to come back Cultivation would also have to be Shattered. And also that if Odium converts someone, their win con stays the same even if Odium shatters. 

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I’m certainly not in favour of a Fifth lynch at this point - although I suppose it’s a viable strategy to claim to want to be lynched as he’s done, the way he’s put it nearly clears him in my mind and takes away any advantage of lynching him for information.

@Elbereth, I apologise. I’d meant to say “most normal games”, which is true. 25% is the highest point of the range we see, and is very rare in my recollection anyway - we typically see closer to 20%. 27% is high compared to that, and is made more dangerous by it being conversion, and so a team with higher cohesion. Not only that, but the Shards take a lot of the focus away from the eliminator factions. When my analysis was last updated (admittedly quite a few hours ago, it now being 3:22am here), Hoid and/or Khriss had been mentioned in only 36% of posts mentioning either them or any Shard. Given a large proportion of the time both were mentioned together, the actual attention given to them is much less than is indicated by that number. This being the case, I think my trying to draw attention to the eliminator factions is entirely warranted.

I’ll address the rest of the discussion later if I continue to be unable to sleep, but will restate that I think a lynch on Fifth at this point would be counterproductive.

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Just now, TheYoungPyromancer said:

He is neutralized.  That is good enough for me.  Oh, and if Odium so wishes, they can announce themselves to the thread before they are overwhelmed.  Then, Survival can claim, and everyone is happy!

Woah I dont want noone claiming because we do not want survival or odium in elim hands.

 

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1 minute ago, Orlok Tsubodai said:

I’m certainly not in favour of a Fifth lynch at this point - although I suppose it’s a viable strategy to claim to want to be lynched as he’s done, the way he’s put it nearly clears him in my mind and takes away any advantage of lynching him for information.

@Elbereth, I apologise. I’d meant to say “most normal games”, which is true. 25% is the highest point of the range we see, and is very rare in my recollection anyway - we typically see closer to 20%. 27% is high compared to that, and is made more dangerous by it being conversion, and so a team with higher cohesion. Not only that, but the Shards take a lot of the focus away from the eliminator factions. When my analysis was last updated (admittedly quite a few hours ago, it now being 3:22am here), Hoid and/or Khriss had been mentioned in only 36% of posts mentioning either them or any Shard. Given a large proportion of the time both were mentioned together, the actual attention given to them is much less than is indicated by that number. This being the case, I think my trying to draw attention to the eliminator factions is entirely warranted.

I agree - and would further specify that while it's a valid strategy, I think it too risky this late in the cycle. Were it earlier, the village could well decide that he was mostly cleared for wanting to die and move on to better targets, but this late that had (and still has? I don't know the vote count at moment) a chance of happening low enough that it wouldn't be worth risking your life as an elim. 

Hm. Which is fair, yes. While I'm now curious about the statistics of elim team percentages, that makes sense, though isn't quite what I was pointing out. It isn't that you're drawing attention to them - I think that a very good thing - but that it felt like you were overemphasising their danger, which isn't quite the same. But then, I particularly hadn't considered the advantage that conversion gave, which helps balance out crossfire between the teams and makes them more dangerous than I'd considered.

I'm also curious - which, to be clear, I'm not asking for an answer right now, as sleep is important - what the percentage of posts is if you lump the Shards together and compare it to Hoid/Khriss. 

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4 minutes ago, Elbereth said:

I'm also curious - which, to be clear, I'm not asking for an answer right now, as sleep is important - what the percentage of posts is if you lump the Shards together and compare it to Hoid/Khriss. 

I’m afraid I’m not sure what you’re asking for here. If you add together all instances of mentions of Hoid, Khriss, and all the Shards (at the point to which the analysis is complete), you have 160 mentions. Of these, 37 are of Khriss, 20 of Hoid, and 103 of the Shards. Notably, 59 of those 103 are of Odium.

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2 minutes ago, Orlok Tsubodai said:

I’m afraid I’m not sure what you’re asking for here. If you add together all instances of mentions of Hoid, Khriss, and all the Shards (at the point to which the analysis is complete), you have 160 mentions. Of these, 37 are of Khriss, 20 of Hoid, and 103 of the Shards. Notably, 59 of those 103 are of Odium.

Ah. Right. I’m... not sure what I thought your original statistic was, in retrospect, but it’s what I was trying to ask for. Nevermind, then. 

On that note, given I’m apparently too tired to think clearly, I’m going to bed. See you all in the Night cycle. 

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2 minutes ago, TheYoungPyromancer said:

Can we have a vote count plz?  Because I need to know if I need to pull out my ace-in-the-hole.

If you’re worried about the lynch being on you, I’d give out whatever information you have that you think will save you. I’d be surprised if the lynch on Fifth continues, given his evident innocence (as of this cycle, to be clear. This is a conversion game, and through being so obviously good he’s made himself an excellent conversion target). 

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Ok I accept your statement with the amendment :D

I definitely agree with Sart and Elbereth (and ninja'd orlok) though and even against the council of 5th wanting me to lynch him I don't see it would gain us much information as I am pretty sure that this  turn they are village (which mean s with their village cred they might be a good Conversion candidate  but thats not here or now)

given the worse case assumption that the 4 shards are not planning on remaining village and hoid and khriss both converted people last night that don't hold shards that are 8 non villagers for long term purposes. That is quite a few. My guess is that there are less than that with some overlap in one area or another or not quite four elim's yet.

Still we have a decent chance to hit someone for information so I think a no lynch this cycle would be a mistake.

I'm not quite sure what the current vote totals are but I am still not quite sure what the deal with HH is right now as nothing particularly stood out to me by their posts one way or another(is it just because they brought up the lynch or no lynch discussion?). Fifth I already said I don't see a reason to lynch as information would be pointless, and Pyro I already said I dont want to lynch someone day one that is new. That kind of means I dont want to go after any of the current top candidates I guess unless someone explains the HH thing to me.

For now I will place my vote on Arinian He was the first to vote for no lynch and has been acting quite a bit more reserved than usual and it feels like he is trying to fly under the radar.

@Arinian

 

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