[OB] Theory: The Shin have the most

[Stark]

Hello all,

 

As we all know, until recently, the Shin had possession of nine out of ten Honorblades.  They Lost Nale's when he stole it back (breaking the oath to leave them behind.  Shame Nale, shame) and they lost Jezrien's when Szeth got taken out.  We get an inkling as to how they find them in the first place during Dalinar's visions.  When he brings Jasnah and Navani into the vision of the "final" battle, and they see Jezrien declare that it is over, the desolations have ended forever, they see the ring of nine blades, and they see a Shin scout find the blades first.  It is not a huge leap to see the Shin declaring themselves the guardians of these blades and spiriting them off quietly.  Especially seeing as we have direct confirmation from Szeth that they have them all, and he has trained with all of the surges.

Then the Shin go on to become one of the most peaceful societies on Roshar, valuing those that add over those that take away.  While they train warriors with the blades, they consider them to be the lowest rank in society.  But they still train them.

As a whole, they are isolationist, and rarely venture outside of their lands.  I assume mostly to avoid violating the prohibition against walking on stone or interacting with the more other societies on Roshar.  Except that one time they invaded.

At some point in the past, the Shin invaded the rest of Roshar, for some reason.  This was mentioned a few times in Oathbringer, the first instance I believe was in chapter 2.  Why would they do this?  Why would an isolationist culture that elevates farmers and artisans above all else decide to go to war with the rest of the world?

Because the core of their society decided 4500 years ago that they, the Shin, would self appoint themselves the sole guardians and protectors of the Honorblades.  Keeping them safe and out of circulation, not being used, until the Herald's ostensibly return to reclaim them.  Who knows how much death and destruction they avoided by hiding them away from the world.  They managed this secret for hundreds of years, peacefully.  Until something changed that forced them to invade.

I think that something was the Recreance.  Dalinar saw in his vision of Feverstone Keep that hundreds of sets of Plate and Blade were dropped that day, far more than is currently in circulation.  Enough to plunge the world into endless war over them.  And most of them disappeared, so only a handful remain.  Those that remain are high profile items, with detailed histories.  But only recently (the last few hundred years) did scholars discover that they could add a gem to the hilt to allow a bearer to bond the blade, allowing them to summon and dismiss them at will.

I think that the Shin invasion happened after the Recreance, but before bearers could bond their blades.  I think the purpose of the invasion was that the Shin view themselves as the guardians of the Herald's blades and the Radiant's blades, and they invaded to take the blades and plate out of circulation.  I think they are sitting on a stockpile that they will never use, to keep the rest of the world from destroying themselves.  I think they stole as much as they could, and killed where they had to to get these.  And then they retreated to their lands with their hidden stockpile, to wait for the return of the Heralds and Radiants, to keep the weapons safe.  And they bunkered down.  Complete Isolation.  They don't leave, and let no one in.  During Rysn's Interlude in WoK, it is mentioned that no outsider may progress beyond a certain point by either her or Vstim (I think, I will look for confirmation of that in that interlude).  The rest of the world does not suspect they have them, because anyone else would have used them with pride, but the Shin view it as a shame, so they hid the blades and they disappeared from history.

Then Szeth being declared Truthless takes on another light.  If they are guarding that large a stockpile, thousands of weapons worth kingdoms, against the return of the Herald's and Radiants, having someone start saying they are back is a Big Deal.  They don't want to flood the world with that much destructive power.  They are afraid to.  Far easier to outcast the single voice out of fear and keep their heads buried.  They are watching for the return of Radiance, and terrified by what it would mean.  

The Shin have been preparing for this Desolation since the last one, but they don't want it to be true.  They have been on high alert for thousands of years hoping this would never come, and are trying to find any valid reason to deny that it is hear, because it would mean they have to unleash death upon the world, when they value life.  They are terrified, and they have all the shardblades.

 

What do you think?  Are the Shin a good candidate for possessing the missing blades?  Was the Shin Invasions a cover for recovering the blades and plate left by the Recreance? Or am I off base?

 

And I apologize if someone else already thought of and mentioned this elsewhere.  I have not seen it posted, so I hope I'm original, but it would not surprise me if someone else got there first.

[Devout Pathian]

I think your theory might have some merit.  There are absolutely things we don’t know about the Shin.  I hope we learn more about them in Szeth’s book.  I’m not so certian they are as good as they like to appear.  They might well be stockpilling the shards.

Something I think you are forgetting about it that we do know a time when people from Shinovar invaded the rest of Roshar.  They even took it all over.  When the humans came to Roshar the Dawnsingers gave them Shinovar, because that was where the humans could live with all their stange animals such as chickens.  We know the humans eventually ventured out and fought the Dawnsingers conquering all of Roshar.

I believe this is what people are refering to when they talk about the invasion from Shinovar.

[RShara]

Hmmm I didn't think of the Shin Invasion in that light.  That's really interesting and definitely possible.  Awesome!

[Stark]

43 minutes ago, Aurora the Rioter said:

I believe this is what people are refering to when they talk about the invasion from Shinovar.

This is an interesting counterpoint, but I don't think I buy it.  What you describe is the First Desolation, when humanity, the Voidbringers, conquered Roshar.  This was indeed a huge event.  But it was thousands of years ago and has its own name.  And the survivors of Ashyn may not have been calling themselves the Shin yet.  Invaders almost never refer to their own actions as an invasion - its a Crusade, or an Enlightening, or a Mission of Civilization - there is always a fancy name to hide the ugly facts.  The invaded people call it an invasion.

 

So if the First Desolation as also the Shin Invasion, why do humans call it by both names?  Especially seeing as the First Desolation is a far more epic name than the Shin Invasions.  The Shin Invasions is also a plural, indicating they had invaded either multiple times, or multiple locations

 

We also have Dalinar in his flashback remembering that Shin had invaded in recent history... So no, I don't think the Shin invasions are a substitute name for the First Desolation, the first Desolation is already an epic enough name for that event. The Shin Invasions are something that definitely occurred after Aharietiam.  Most likely after the Recreance as well given how Dalinar and the few Historians who mention it seem to refer to it.  

20 minutes ago, RShara said:

Hmmm I didn't think of the Shin Invasion in that light.  That's really interesting and definitely possible.  Awesome!

Super thrilled to have peaked the curiosity of one of the Arcanists!  That is about a good response as I could have expected for a theory.  Too bad questions about this and what happened to the missing sets seems like massive RAFO bait.

[RShara]

1 minute ago, Stark said:

Super thrilled to have peaked the curiosity of one of the Arcanists!  That is about a good response as I could have expected for a theory.  Too bad questions about this and what happened to the missing sets seems like massive RAFO bait.

Well I can't think of anything in the text or WoBs that counter it, and we know so little about the Shin.  And you are right that they guard the Honorblades.  And they did try to invade the rest of the continent.  So a theory that they invaded to claim the Shardblades holds water

[Devout Pathian]

Okay I agree you have a point.  I just don’t remember much about the Shin invasions.  I guess I just wasn’t intrested in it that much.

[Stark]

9 minutes ago, Aurora the Rioter said:

 I guess I just wasn’t intrested in it that much.

That's fair.  It seems like there are a ton of things in this series that get tiny, seemingly off-hand mentions that turn out to be super important later.  Like Ishar.  Or all the Cremlings. Just to mention a few.  It is hard to pick out which ones are foreshadowing reveals and which ones are red herrings.  I think the Shin are definitely more than they appear, and Szeth's book will get pretty exciting.

[insert_anagram_here]

Good theory! I've completely missed the references of Shin invasions, good job at reminding us!

1 hour ago, Stark said:

What do you think?  Are the Shin a good candidate for possessing the missing blades?  Was the Shin Invasions a cover for recovering the blades and plate left by the Recreance? Or am I off base?

I've been theorizing (a lot of people are rolling their eyes right now) that Shin are like the hobbits from LotR, somehow they aren't affected by the Surgebinding, at least not unless they are Truthless. Not sure if this is mentioned before but there is also this death rattle you might find interesting:

Quote

“I wish to sleep. I know now why you do what you do, and I hate you for it. I will not speak of the truths I see. ”

— Collected on Kakashah 1173, 142 seconds pre-death, by the Silent Gatherers. Subject was a Shin sailor, left behind by his crew, reportedly for bringing them ill luck. Sample largely useless.^[30]

I guess Moelach can't affect them either.

[Subvisual Haze]

In books the Shin invasions sound like a thing of the modern era.  When Dalinar mentions his intent to unite all of Roshar, Adolin thinks

Quote

"No man had ever united the entire continent - not during the Shin invasions, not during the height of the Hierocracy, not during the Sunmaker's conquest"

Based on the purge of historical records pre-Hierocracy by the Ardentia, and (possibly) the order these events are listed offhandedly here, I'd place the Shin invasions shortly post-Recreance, possibly even during the same timeframe as the Hierocracy.

Speaking of Shin and invasions, The old Way of Kings Prime chapter on Szeth/Jek had one blurb that caught my eye.

Quote

Jek shook his head. Sixteen years, and he had yet to find a true challenge in these lands. He wondered if the savages even realized how fortunate they were—if they’d been more civilized, the clans would have attacked them long ago. As it was, however, Truth forbade the attacking of children, women, and non-warriors. By common Shin consent, all easterners fell into the first category.

That prohibition, unfortunately, no longer applied to Jek. He was Truthless.

Obviously the story has changed enormously since that draft and this isn't even close to canon, but I do like the idea of the Shin being a slumbering military giant restrained from war by their own sense of honor.

[Strifelover]

I really like this idea. As I was reading it, I thought you were going in a different direction, but I like where your theory ends up! As a potential counterpoint, here's where I thought this was heading: 

The Shin do indeed grab the Honorblades after the Last Desolation and keep them safe. They train, albeit begrudgingly, warriors in the various Surges in case they need them. Not only can the Shin keep the blades safe, but the blades can keep the Shin safe by providing a powerful weapon and a great deterrent should anyone try to invade. 

Fast forward to the Recreance, where we have all of our Surgebinders (save the Skybreakers, and I'm curious how many people knew they stuck around) abandon their oaths, breaking their bonds. Not only is the world indeed plunged into chaos, but the balance of power may have significantly shifted. Prior to the Recreance, the Shin essentially had 9 or 10 Honorblades, and their associated "Surgebinders" against the world which has hundreds or perhaps thousands of them. Now suddenly, though the Shardblades survive the Surgebinding doesn't. 

Maybe the Shin give in to human nature a bit more than we'd like to think. If the Skybreakers are indeed unknown in keeping their Oaths, the Shin suddenly see themselves as the only nation possessing 9 or 10 powerful, highly trained Surgebinders, which confers a huge military advantage. The rest of Roshar is embroiled in various fighting over the Shards with Shardbearers all jockeying for power. This presents the perfect opportunity for the Shin invasion, maybe they even convinced themselves there were doing something benevolent or maybe they saw an advantage and got greedy. It certainly wouldn't be the first time people from Shinovar invaded Roshar!

[Yezrien]

This is a great theory.

I vaguely remember Gavilar (or someone close to him) talking about limiting his conquest to Alethkar, resisting the urge to take over the world and build an untenably huge empire. He says the Shin invaders (much like the Sunmaker) lost their empire shortly after conquering it because they overreached. But maybe the Shin let their empire disintegrate. Maybe they just wanted shards, and they let their conquered territories go once they'd confiscated all the plate and blades.

Alternatively, I had another theory while reading yours. Maybe the Shin attitude toward warriors isn't all that ancient. Maybe the Shin Invasions were Shinovar's version of the Hierocracy: the warrior class took control of the country and tried to take over the world. Once the Stone Shamans (the religious class) regained control, they permanently reduced the status of soldiers to prevent another coup. It's like the Hierocracy in reverse!

[Storms!]

1 minute ago, Belzedar said:

I vaguely remember Gavilar (or someone close to him) talking about limiting his conquest to Alethkar, resisting the urge to take over the world and build an untenably huge empire. He says the Shin invaders (much like the Sunmaker) lost their empire shortly after conquering it because they overreached. But maybe the Shin let their empire disintegrate. Maybe they just wanted shards, and they let their conquered territories go once they'd confiscated all the plate and blades.

Do we know how far their empire stretched? If they conquered the eastern world, but were stopped somewhere in Vedenar, it would go a long way towards explaining why Vedenar and Alethkar each have as many shards as the rest of the world combined.

This would validate what you are saying and what is said in the text. Basically, they pushed as far as they could go, but realized they were reaching too far once they hit mountainous Vedenar. So they did overreach, as stated in the text, but instead of watching their empire crumble like most overreaching empires do, they grabbed all the shards they could and pulled out

[Calderis]

I like this theory, something about it seemed to be nagging at me though, and it's the timing. I still think the theory is possible, but the invasion that Gavilar mentioned was lead by Shubreth-son-Malashaman or something close to that. Blades have been bonded long enough that most people have forgotten that the gemstones were added, but the name of this Shin conqueror is remembered. 

So while I like the theory, and I do think it's possible to be true, I think that the timing would have to have been later to be better recorded in the historical records. 

Edited February 15, 2018 by Calderis

[Stark]

43 minutes ago, Subvisual Haze said:

Based on the purge of historical records pre-Hierocracy by the Ardentia, and (possibly) the order these events are listed offhandedly here, I'd place the Shin invasions shortly post-Recreance, possibly even during the same timeframe as the Hierocracy.

This is an awesome extra bit of info!  It falls in line with my thoughts of timing, putting the Invasions closer to the Recreance than not.  Not outright proof, but helpful still.  Thanks!

22 minutes ago, Belzedar said:

But maybe the Shin let their empire disintegrate. Maybe they just wanted shards, and they let their conquered territories go once they'd confiscated all the plate and blades.

I agree.  If they accomplished their goal of capturing the shards, why hold on to territory they don't want?  Especially given their views on stone and stonewalkers?  Easier to let it dissolve and retreat back to their more fertile lands.

 

And as an additional thought - there are no spren in Shinovar.  Is that maybe because they are driven away by the large number of Deadeyes?  If the Shin have thousands of deadblades, it may overload the Shinovar aspect of Shadesmar with so many deadeyes that no spren, even the basic spren, is comfortable going there?  Get their emotion food elsewhere, from a less creepy place?

[Calderis]

Alright, thinking about this more, and here's how I feel it went down. 

The Sunmaker appears to have been the last major conqueror on Roshar, and he ended the Hierocracy. So this would put Shubreth-son-Malashaman, either before or during. I think before. 

The lighteyes descending from the Radiants is a major portion of the fundamental tenants of Vorinism, though it's been forgotten that that's the reason why. Lighteyes can also come from a bonded blade though. So I think that the knowledge of bonding the blades had been acquired for some time, over generations these new lighteyes became synonymous with those descended from Radiants and something close to modern Vorinism emerged. 

Shubreth-son-Malashaman waged his war, to reclaim the blades, and when it was decided that he had pushed far enough, he withdrew back to Shinovar and the power vacuum that arose allowed the Hierocracy to spring into being.

Edit: it puts things much closer to modern times than you'd like @Stark, because the Hierocracy is counted in the hundreds of years prior to tWoK, where as the Recreance is at least two millenia, but I think it fits slightly better. 

Edited February 15, 2018 by Calderis

[Stark]

You may be right @Calderis.  Everything I have is conjecture based on a few off hand mentions - as far as I know, we have no concrete timelines for some of these events.  And to be fair, the Recreance left a power void big enough that society likely took a hit after it, what with the Radiants leaving shards behind like Oprah hands out cars (You get a shard! You get a Shard! Everyone gets a shard! Oh, you just killed your Sergeant with a shard... Keep it!).  That would be chaotic enough for the Shin to get in steathily to grab up a fair chunk of the available shards.  But eventually, things would start to stabilize, and certain shards would get names and histories that follow them, making them more notable if they were to disappear.  So an invasion, where they become 'lost,' to cover their disappearance, makes sense.

 

I'm not in love with your proposed timeline, because the shards have to disappear before they start becoming items with history that would be noticed if missing.  But again, I'm theorizing out of the blue with little to no proof with which to support my hypothesis, so your timeline may well be the better fit.  It all depends on how long it took society on Roshar to start rebuilding and stabilize post-Recreance, and start tracking History again.  So no, I don't like the idea that it took that long, but that does not mean that it is not valid.  Either way, it still ends up with the Shin possessing over 95% of Roshar's shards, with the remaining 5% spread across the nations or outright lost, and none the wiser about it.

 

I also like @Storms! interpretation for why Alethkar and Vedenar have more than the other countries.

[Leyrann]

Storm you. I want to dislike this theory and bring in reasons against it, but even the ones I did have did not hold up under some research.

I guess the only thing I can rationally say is "you might be on to something."

Even if only because, indeed, it is very curious that the Shin invaded once.

[RShara]

4 minutes ago, Leyrann said:

Storm you. I want to dislike this theory and bring in reasons against it, but even the ones I did have did not hold up under some research.

I guess the only thing I can rationally say is "you might be on to something."

Even if only because, indeed, it is very curious that the Shin invaded once.

Other than the "want to dislike" part, that's basically how I felt

Even though I like a lot of theories, I can't get behind them due to text and WoBs.  This would explain a rather curious event, and doesn't contradict anything we know about the Shin.

[Subvisual Haze]

It's simple logistics.  Roshar is a big honking place, and highstorms kick over any effort at developing traditional infrastructure.  With the oathgates being inactive and only a couple honorblades giving a few people access to flight/transportation, Roshar suddenly became a much much larger and isolated place post-Oathgate closing.  It makes more sense for the Shin to carry out quick wars or raids against their neighbors for shards than to march across half the continent to do the same.

The only way to keep an army deployed long-term on Roshar is through massive reliance on Soulcasters for food and shelter construction.  While the Shin seemingly have no issue with outsiders using soulcasting (to trade them unmined soulcast metal), I think they shy away from abusing those powers themselves.  Otherwise why wouldn't they just soulcast their own metal for use?

I think timeline wise this makes great sense for the Shin wars occuring pre-Sunmaker.  Earlier I had assumed the reason shardblades are heavily concentrated in Alethekar and Jah Kaved was due to certain orders like the Windrunners being based in Alethekar, thus the Recreance left a lot of blades behind there.  That might still be partially the reason, but I think the Shin gobbling up Shardblades on their side of the world also is a great explanation for the dearth of Shardblades in the west.  Even better, this helps explain why Iri isn't overflowing with Shardblades, despite the implication that the Recreance event at Feverstone Keep occurred there (dropping hundreds of sets of blade and plate on their soil!).

Storms, by selectively poaching shardblades from their neighbors like the Azish, but not the more distant Vorin kingdoms, the Shin actually enabled the Sunmaker's conquest by setting up an exploitable imbalance of power!  

Edited February 15, 2018 by Subvisual Haze
Sunmaker not Dawnsinger

[Leyrann]

2 minutes ago, Subvisual Haze said:

It's simple logistics.  Roshar is a big honking place, and highstorms kick over any effort at developing traditional infrastructure.  With the oathgates being inactive and only a couple honorblades giving a few people access to flight/transportation, Roshar suddenly became a much much larger and isolated place post-Oathgate closing.  It makes more sense for the Shin to carry out quick wars or raids against their neighbors for shards than to march across half the continent to do the same.

The only way to keep an army deployed long-term on Roshar is through massive reliance on Soulcasters for food and shelter construction.  While the Shin seemingly have no issue with outsiders using soulcasting (to trade them unmined soulcast metal), I think they shy away from abusing those powers themselves.  Otherwise why wouldn't they just soulcast their own metal for use?

I think timeline wise this makes great sense for the Shin wars occuring pre-Dawnsinger.  Earlier I had assumed the reason shardblades are heavily concentrated in Alethekar and Jah Kaved was due to certain orders like the Windrunners being based in Alethekar, thus the Recreance left a lot of blades behind there.  That might still be partially the reason, but I think the Shin gobbling up Shardblades on their side of the world also is a great explanation for the dearth of Shardblades in the west.  Even better, this helps explain why Iri isn't overflowing with Shardblades, despite the implication that the Recreance event at Feverstone Keep occurred there (dropping hundreds of sets of blade and plate on their soil!).

Storms, by selectively poaching shardblades from their neighbors like the Azish, but not the more distant Vorin kingdoms, the Shin actually enabled the Sunmaker's conquest by setting up an exploitable imbalance of power!  

Few problems with what you outlined.

1. Pre-Dawnsinger would mean before the First Desolation. As far as I know, we don't have a signle record of that (Eila Steele (sp?), about the First Desolation, was the oldest record). I assume you mean something else? Pre-Hierocracy?

2. Even though the Shardblades would indeed have mainly been looted in the west, Dalinar notes in the Feverstone Keep vision that there are more Shardblades there than even Jah Keved or Alethkar have, I believe he even mentions that he sees more than the world has nowadays.

3. What makes you say that Feverstone Keep was in Iri? I might have missed something, but I haven't seen any indication towards a particular location, though in my head I pictured it in the Unclaimed Hills.

[RShara]

5 minutes ago, Leyrann said:

3. What makes you say that Feverstone Keep was in Iri? I might have missed something, but I haven't seen any indication towards a particular location, though in my head I pictured it in the Unclaimed Hills.

There's a bit from the gemstone archive about Feverstone Keep being near Rall Elorim.

 

Quote

The enemy makes another push toward Feverstone Keep. I wish we knew what it was that had them so interested in that area. Could they be intent on capturing Rall Elorim?

 

Edited February 15, 2018 by RShara

[Storms!]

41 minutes ago, Calderis said:

The Sunmaker appears to have been the last major conqueror on Roshar, and he ended the Hierocracy. So this would put Shubreth-son-Malashaman, either before or during. I think before

This actually makes a lot of sense as well. The Hierocracy was known for editing/destroying a lot of history. I could easily see a scholar find an account that says the Shin captured thousands of shards, and that scholar thinking, "well, there are only a couple hundred in the world today so that's obviously one of the many things that were changed"

[Subvisual Haze]

20 minutes ago, Leyrann said:

Few problems with what you outlined.

1. Pre-Dawnsinger would mean before the First Desolation. As far as I know, we don't have a signle record of that (Eila Steele (sp?), about the First Desolation, was the oldest record). I assume you mean something else? Pre-Hierocracy?

2. Even though the Shardblades would indeed have mainly been looted in the west, Dalinar notes in the Feverstone Keep vision that there are more Shardblades there than even Jah Keved or Alethkar have, I believe he even mentions that he sees more than the world has nowadays.

3. What makes you say that Feverstone Keep was in Iri? I might have missed something, but I haven't seen any indication towards a particular location, though in my head I pictured it in the Unclaimed Hills.

1. - Thanks, brain fart on my part.  I meant Sunmaker there, not Dawnsinger.  Too many compound sun related nouns

2. - Yep, and I think that giant cache of Shardblades and plates was quickly "secured" by the Shin.

[Ainurromen]

Very interesting theory. There's just something I can't make sense of: if the Shin believe the shards and the Honorblades are so important and need to be protected and hidden, then why give one to a Truthless for everyone to use as they please? 

 

BTW: Ashyn -> Shin. They sound too similar for it to be a coincidence. I think Shinovar was named something different before the First Desolation. 

[Song]

Great theory. The only part I'm not convinced of is that they are saving them to be prepared for another desolation. Didn't Jezriel tell them that they had won, that it was over? What reason would someone there have to disagree?

It also seems like their reaction to Szeth makes more sense if they believed the desolations had finished.  His words are blasphemous not just "bad news" they want to ignore.