Mid-Range Game 27: Quarantine

[MonsterMetroid]

All Hail thief mayor Orlok, may he be the last to die!

Seeing how things are going, I still don't really get a elim vibe from Alvron but It's really late to propose someone else. I'm a bit suspicious of Eternum and his convenient crab acknowledgement but at the same time I am less sure than I was when I initially voted for him.

Which brings me to the next point, I was having a PM with Alvron and he did bring up that we are only guaranteed 1 elim in the 6. We dont know that an elim took the map and we know who the thief is now (I doubt he is lying though if orlok was an elim claiming the thief and getting the gun would be a brilliant move). So I don't know if we want to dwell on the original 6 entirely too much. I kind of wish someone outside of the six would have brought this up since I know that this might look like self preservation but I do worry that we could lynch 4 innocent and 1 thief just to get to an elim.

But I digress But I will take my vote off of Eternum at least for now and I really hope to hear more from brightness radiant and A Budgie in the future cause right now it feels like they are lurking/ RL problems.

[Alvron]

Just now, Eternum said:

What if my dream is to never have eaten that bite?

Then why did you take that bite?  No refunds for those that dash their own dreams.

[Orlok Tsubodai]

Change of plan, again. Legend has contacted me, and I'll go for the gun. I don't see why I shouldn't be accountable, at this stage.

[Eternum]

2 minutes ago, Alvron said:

Then why did you take that bite?  No refunds for those that dash their own dreams.

This is horrible customer service. Horrible, I say! Loot pizzas may be the new fad, but this is getting ridiculous.

4 minutes ago, MonsterMetroid said:

 I'm a bit suspicious of Eternum and his convenient crab acknowledgement but at the same time I am less sure than I was when I initially voted for him.

You can ask Orlok for confirmation. I PMd him at the begining of Cycle 2, telling him I'd found him Either way, with me and Orlok out of the picture it's like, a 2/4 chance of an Elim. Or a 1/4, I'm not sure. Either way, this game went from 0-100 real fast. I love it.

[Alvron]

1 minute ago, Eternum said:

You can ask Orlok for confirmation. I PMd him at the begining of Cycle 2, telling him I'd found him Either way, with me and Orlok out of the picture it's like, a 2/4 chance of an Elim. Or a 1/4, I'm not sure. Either way, this game went from 0-100 real fast. I love it.

Actually it's still a 2/5 or 1/5 depending given that you could very well be a Prepared Elim.

[Kynedath]

This is such an interesting turn of events, I'm riveted! I personally like the plan of the thief holding the gun, I was nervous about it the whole time so far and didn't want to do anything about it in case I died, so that takes away a whole bunch of my stress. That being said, I think that the first cycle was probably the most telling for eliminators based on who took what. From here on out, there are going to be more and more people who use items rather than take them. After all, what is the point in taking items and not using them? Lies and deception is in the basic job description for an eliminator and I believe it will get easier for them to pull off those lies as the game  progresses.

I was planning on doing a little bit of analysis on the players I haven't commented on this cycle, but this kind of threw me off, so I'll have to get back to that once I get home in just under an hour from now.

[Elenion]

Assuming that Orlok doesn't counter Eternum's claim of scanning, I'm inclined to trust Eternum. For a minute I was suspicious that we could have an elim!Orlok covering for an elim!Eternum, but Eternum PMing Orlok instead of putting him on the elim kill list sounds like a village thing to do. Plus Orlok would make a reasonable D1 scan.

But wait... Orlok said he would consider helping the elims. Is he just giving Eternum an alibi to get him out of the suspects shortlist? Dangit now in doubting myself.

@Alvron @MonsterMetroid It's not possible for the map thief to not have been caught in the net. There's a chance they're not elim, yes, but whatever the case if we keep lynching then we get the map back into circulation. I also think Alv might be trying to subtly discourage lynching in that group for elims.

[Eternum]

Huh. I just realized.

What if Monster pointed out everyone that didn't take an item as a cover for people who actually took suspicious stuff? 

[Kynedath]

Just one more thing before I head out from school and lose wifi, @Elenion it takes a turn to be able to use the map, so for all we know the sneak took it and is using it this turn.

[Eternum]

18 minutes ago, Alvron said:

Actually it's still a 2/5 or 1/5 depending given that you could very well be a Prepared Elim.

Elims can be Prepared? I.. did not realize that... Huh.

I am a villager, however.

[Elenion]

Just now, Kynedath said:

Just one more thing before I head out from school and lose wifi, @Elenion it takes a turn to be able to use the map, so for all we know the sneak took it and is using it this turn.

A village sneak would have had no reason to take the map. Because a sneak took it and hasn't said anything, we know that they're elim and will not want to use the map.

[MonsterMetroid]

6 minutes ago, Elenion said:

It's not possible for the map thief to not have been caught in the net. There's a chance they're not elim, yes, but whatever the case if we keep lynching then we get the map back into circulation.

True but it could have been a villager with sneak that took the map and they just don't want to claim because it might get stolen or they might get killed by elims.

 

15 minutes ago, Kynedath said:

That being said, I think that the first cycle was probably the most telling for eliminators based on who took what. From here on out, there are going to be more and more people who use items rather than take them. After all, what is the point in taking items and not using them?

That's true I guess down the line using an item will be an alibi so we can't narrow down easily but I think we will be able to narrow down still. If we get a lucky early elim kill it will put a lot of pressure on them as the rotation will be cut shorter for them.

 

Edit dang got ninjad by a bunch of replies

Edited February 6, 2018 by MonsterMetroid

[Alvron]

1 minute ago, Eternum said:

Elims can be Prepared? I.. did not realize that... Huh.

You didn't know that Evil can be prepared?  This needs rectifying immediately.

 

[Elenion]

3 minutes ago, Eternum said:

Huh. I just realized.

What if Monster pointed out everyone that didn't take an item as a cover for people who actually took suspicious stuff? 

I did some analysis in my notes earlier this cycle, and the only thing I saw taken that was slightly suspicious was Jon and his acid, but acid is useful for blocking the elim kill. Well, the acid and the map, I guess.

[MonsterMetroid]

1 minute ago, Alvron said:

You didn't know that Evil can be prepared?  This needs rectifying immediately.

Scar wasn't evil, he was just misunderstood

[Steeldancer]

43 minutes ago, Alvron said:

Well, I can't very well hope for a tie with me and Orlok if he's having this kind of fun.  That would go against everything I do.

I was planning on going for the gun to see if I could take some folks out with me but sadly I get Lynched first so I shall instead bow out and wish Orlok a fun time and hope he gets better soon.

And remember,

It's just a game.  Have fun.

AHHHHHHHHH NO MORE CLOWNS THEY"RE SO FREAKY!!!!

Ok, that answers my one major suspicion of Orlok, if Eternum backs up the story, Orlok. So... that answers my question as to why no one took any bribes last night. 

I am going to vote Jondesu. Why did you take an acid bucket? As someone pointed out earlier, an acid bucket is something that benefits the elims in particular. I'm not sure what to make of what my analysis turned up, but hopefully it'll be more useful next cycle, with more comparisons to make. 
I... don't know how to feel about Orlok's announcement. I believe his claim, but I do understand there are definetly some balance issues, but I don't think the game is broken. Didn't someone say the elims could potentially win in 4 cycles? I also don't know how I feel about Orlok getting a gun. I don't know about you guys, but Orlok with kill roles can be a little terrifying (see LG36). A neutral Orlok with a kill role? Well, I hope he is smart with that. 
I will also try to be more active in PMs next cycle, but my homework is just... really freaking annoying. Poking me might help.  

[Alvron]

2 minutes ago, MonsterMetroid said:

Scar wasn't evil, he was just misunderstood

You are my new favorite person!

[Orlok Tsubodai]

2 minutes ago, Steeldancer said:

AHHHHHHHHH NO MORE CLOWNS THEY"RE SO FREAKY!!!!

Ok, that answers my one major suspicion of Orlok, if Eternum backs up the story, Orlok. So... that answers my question as to why no one took any bribes last night. 

I am going to vote Jondesu. Why did you take an acid bucket? As someone pointed out earlier, an acid bucket is something that benefits the elims in particular. I'm not sure what to make of what my analysis turned up, but hopefully it'll be more useful next cycle, with more comparisons to make. 
I... don't know how to feel about Orlok's announcement. I believe his claim, but I do understand there are definetly some balance issues, but I don't think the game is broken. Didn't someone say the elims could potentially win in 4 cycles? I also don't know how I feel about Orlok getting a gun. I don't know about you guys, but Orlok with kill roles can be a little terrifying (see LG36). A neutral Orlok with a kill role? Well, I hope he is smart with that. 
I will also try to be more active in PMs next cycle, but my homework is just... really freaking annoying. Poking me might help.  

They did. That was me, before I realised that the impact of the supply mechanic on me also carried over to the eliminators.

[MonsterMetroid]

4 minutes ago, Alvron said:

You are my new favorite person!

Excellent! Who did I just out so I can rub it in their face? 

[BrightnessRadiant]

Why is taking a bucket of acid such an elim thing to do? Don't you not want the elims to get them? *shrugs* I'm taking one this time LOL

I actually got back early from job hunting so I'm trying to catch up on the game a bit. Okay so far I've seen Orlok is the thief(yeah I believe it), Alvron is apparently scaring everyone (so what else is new?:P), and people are voting on players who didn't take items...oh yeah I didn't take one...not voting myself tho lolol. Suuuure Alvron

Okay so, I'm placing my vote here for now and gonna catch up on everything else when I can.

[Sart]

1 hour ago, Orlok Tsubodai said:

I'm still very unwell, so I'm unlikely to see the thread again this cycle. I've been asked in PMs and in thread why I didn't show as taking an item, and at this point don't see why I shouldn't present my case.

This game is broken. It's great fun, and a fascinating concept, but the mechanics favour the village to an incredible degree. This isn't necessarily Sart's fault. He sent the rules to Wilson, Seonid, and myself, and none of us responded, due to varying personal circumstances. We are at least as responsible.

So, you might ask, why is the game broken? Ultimately, it comes down to the revelation of those who take items. This ensures that, each cycle, we only have a small pool of people who can make the kill. In a game of 17 people, as this is, the eliminator team is unlikely to be more than three players. The eliminator team have a limited number of people through which they are able to rotate their kill placement, and as the game goes on, they're going to become more and more exposed. Part of this will be mitigated by people using items they pick up, but many of these are verifiable, and the village should be able to use that information to catch the eliminators with some degree of ease.

As such, I chose not to take an item to provide some degree of smokescreen. Now, you may ask why I'm claiming this, as actually claiming undermines the value in proving a smokescreen. On reflection, I think that my actions alone will not be enough, and suggest that individual villagers choose a turn or two in the game, perhaps by rolling a dice, in which they won't take an item, or an action. Doing this should make it much easier for the eliminators to actually make kills.

You might now be asking why I'm suggesting that the village intentionally handicaps themselves. My answer, ultimately, is fun and sportsmanship.

An eliminator team that are locked down are unlikely to have fun. They'll be under significant amounts of pressure, and won't feel like they have an avenue for victory. I suggest people look at LG4 for a strong example of this. I further contend, though, that the village will have less fun if they don't help work around the rule change. SE games are meant to be a competition, and an easy victory takes away from it actually being a game.

A further question you might ask me is why I've put so much thought into this.

I am the Thief.

I can't win the game, due to mechanics that are yet further broken for the Thief. I need to acquire five bribes over the course of a game unlikely to last more than seven cycles. It's made public if I pick up bribes. Both the village and the eliminators are working against me, and lose if I win, so are incentivised not to pick up bribes. Bribes get destroyed if used on players other than me. My path to victory could only be to steal from five people, who are highly unlikely to pick up bribes, before they actually use them on anyone. In the same way as the eliminator kill, doing so exposes me to scrutiny for not picking up items, but unlike the eliminators, there is only one of me, so the action can't be cycled.

I recognised this upon getting my PM, and decided at that stage to have fun with the game, and then to try to help address balance.

Why am I claiming?

Firstly, to add credibility to my suggestion that we ought to help address the imbalance in the game. I'm the Thief, and can prove that I'm the Thief. I'm not making this suggestion as an eliminator trying to subvert the village, but because I am legitimately worried about balance in the game.

Secondly, because I'm unwell. If I get lynched, it won't matter all that much to me. I've been trying to have fun this game, and claiming is an interesting move. If you let me live (which I'll set out a reason for shortly), I'll carry on just having fun. If not, I'll just convalesce.

Thirdly, to offer to act as a mediator between the two sides. If the eliminators believe they can manage without our aiding them, they can let me know, and I'll relay it. If they believe the game still to be broken, I can communicate that.

Fourthly, to suggest that I take the gun. I'm a neutral party, and I can't win. I have no use for the gun, but instead can act as a safe place for the gun to be kept without either side using it.

In addition to those two reasons for leaving me alive, I intend to continue playing the game as I have been - doing genuine analysis, and stimulating discussion. If you look back at cycle 1, I'd argue that I created a significant amount of the information generating discussion, which benefits the village, and prevents the game turning into a low activity game, with lurking eliminators.

I'd quite like to stay alive to carry this out - I am having fun, and ultimately, it matters little to me whether Alv actually is evil or not. Kind as he has been in PMs, I am in danger of being lynched. Alvron.

I feel the need to address this. I will not confirm if Orlok is the Thief or not, but the points he makes are legitimate, so I will talk about them.

The Thief's win condition is unfortunately broken. I did not account for the stigma of taking a Bribe from the Supply, which makes the Thief's win very difficult to achieve. At the very least, the Thief should only have needed 4 Bribes to win, which would have been more feasible. If I ever re-run this game, I would change the Thief's win condition to getting one of every basic item (Acid, Bribe, Chalk, and Crab) to avoid the problem of Bribes rotting in the supply. It's not impossible for the Thief to win in this version of the game, it's just not likely. I also considered making the Thief Sneaky, which would give them a way to take from the Supply, but that would still lead to the action-tracking problem.

On the subject of action-tracking, I knew it was going to be a thing in this game. If I was running the game again, I would probably not reveal who took what. However, I balanced the game on the assumption that players could track who took what. We're still in the middle of this game, so I can't say how I've tried to achieve this. I knew there was going to be an eliminator making the kill who would garner suspicion after the Day 1 scramble. I planned for that. After Day 1, there's a lot more room to hide in, which gives the Forgotten some breathing room. I may have made it too hard for the Forgotten, or I may have made it too easy. I can't say until the game has been wrapped up.

One of the ways I accounted for this was the Map. I accounted for the strategy of holding the Map for leverage. This strategy can benefit all sides. The village can hold onto it to prevent the Forgotten from getting a hoard of items. The Forgotten can use it to stop the item tracking problem. The Thief can use it to blackmail the other sides into giving him Bribes. I understand there are issues in this game, and I know I'm biased as the one who designed this game. I'm just asking that people don't game throw based on their preconceived notions of balance. I would rather have the game be accidentally broken than intentionally broken.

So please, let the chaos continue. I have no idea how this game will end, and am very excited to see what you guys do. First and foremost, this game is about having fun. If a player wants to skip taking an action for balance purposes, I won't judge. That is their idea of fun. With that being said, I want everyone to try their best, and do well in the game set up for them. Thank you for understanding.

Sart

[Eternum]

Here's the thing, Acid can be useful to the village, but it takes too much luck. So Jon defending the Acid bucket was weird tbh. I'll place my vote on Jondesu because I'm growing more and more suspicious of them.

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

18 minutes ago, Elenion said:

It's not possible for the map thief to not have been caught in the net. There's a chance they're not elim, yes, but whatever the case if we keep lynching then we get the map back into circulation. I also think Alv might be trying to subtly discourage lynching in that group for elims.

The map taker, assuming they are an elim, could pass the map on to one of their teammates. It might be worthwhile for some of the five players with crabs to scan the three remaining prime candidates(Monster, Brightness, and A Budgie) to limit the likelihood of that happening. 

[livinglegend]

I Just caught up on the thread and we'll... That happened. In the spirit of reveals I am not a thief. I cannot, however, say anything on the behalf of Lenny. 

I rolled a d20 just now to determine who to vote for and came up with MacThorstein. That wasn't effective. It looks like our neighborhood scary man isn't long for this game, but I'm going to vote for Jondesu on gut feelings. I realize it isn't fair to him, but I don't think it really puts you in danger of the lynch either.

Edit: while writing this, you gained enough votes to be up for the lynch. Hmm. I think I'll leave my vote working toward having the elusive tie, but if you get higher than Alv, I'll do what I can for the gods of luck and chance

Edit: painting the voters red

Edited February 6, 2018 by livinglegend

[BrightnessRadiant]

@livinglegend your vote isn't in red?