Mid-Range Game 27: Quarantine

[MonsterMetroid]

Ok so I'm sorry I missed a whole bunch of stuff I was writing a post last night aboout the day 1 lynch arguement being the wonly thing that stood out to me and then since I woke the puppy for the picture the puppy started whining , Then I really messed up because I thought the night cycle was next and was when we got to take stuff from the supply! Sorry I didn't read the rules up front I see now they are combined, but as a result I didn't grab anything...

But If I understand the rules we should be able to determine who did the killing right by who didn't steal something right?

Spoiler

 

1. Kynedath: Myka           -chalk
2. MacThorstenson: Thorstein
3. Jondesu: Kadal          -acid
4. Caesura: Lara            -crab
5. Steeldancer: Steelchalk     -crab
6. Devotary of Spontaneity: Cacooo Moreau        -chalk
7. livinglegend: Lenny      -crab
8. MonsterMetroid: Nb'nub         -nothing
9. Orlok Tsubodai: Orlok           -???
10. A Joe in the Bush: Joel
11. manukos: General Manukos the IV        -crab
12. BrightnessRadiant: Mya      -???
13. Eternum: Aiden        -???
14. Drake Marshall: Drake           -crab
15. Elenion: Mr. Klenien                        -chalk
16. Alvron: Ronald        -???
17. A Budgie: Rose-Mary Soup       -???

 

So That means that there is me, @Orlok Tsubodai, @BrightnessRadiant, @Eternum, @Alvron, @A Budgie that didnt take anything or took the map. I'm guessing the elim that killed might claim to have taken the map since we don't know who took it. I have only played with Alvron before in the QF game and I died pretty quick in that game so I don't really have a read on anyone else of those that I listed but I will catch up on what I missed last cycle and post again.

Edit: rereading my statement I meant to say that one of us 6 must have been the killer and since I know it wasn't me (cause I'm an idiot) then 5 people is still a lot of people to choose from more than I thought there would be when I started this...

Edited February 5, 2018 by MonsterMetroid

[DrakeMarshall]

3 minutes ago, livinglegend said:

I'm definitely going for it today though

SAME 

[Elenion]

Hmmm, I think we have our first lead. See, village!Joe would have had no motivation to not take the map, because not taking the map would have hurt the village. Therefore, the sneaky person must have attempted to take the map so that Joe didn't get it. Since only an elim sneaky person would have wanted to deprive the village of the map, we can cross-reference the list of active players with the list of players who took items in order to see which active player wanted to deprive us of the map.

In addition, a second eliminator would have had to have put in the elim kill, so we can narrow down a second eliminator from the actions taken as well.

I was about to compile a list, but I just got ninja'd my MonsterMetroid who already did it. So it looks like among MonsterMetroid, BR, Orlok, Eternum, Alvron, and Budgie there are at least 2 elims that we can account for. Of those, I can remember posts from all but Budgie and Eternum, and a quick look at their profiles tells me that both of them were on during the last cycle. That's 2 elims among only 6 people, so let's do this!

[DrakeMarshall]

2 minutes ago, MonsterMetroid said:

Ok so I'm sorry I missed a whole bunch of stuff I was writing a post last night aboout the day 1 lynch arguement being the wonly thing that stood out to me and then since I woke the puppy for the picture the puppy started whining , Then I really messed up because I thought the night cycle was next and was when we got to take stuff from the supply! Sorry I didn't read the rules up front I see now they are combined, but as a result I didn't grab anything...

But If I understand the rules we should be able to determine who did the killing right by who didn't steal something right?

  Hide contents

 

1. Kynedath: Myka           -chalk
2. MacThorstenson: Thorstein
3. Jondesu: Kadal          -acid
4. Caesura: Lara            -crab
5. Steeldancer: Steelchalk     -crab
6. Devotary of Spontaneity: Cacooo Moreau        -chalk
7. livinglegend: Lenny      -crab
8. MonsterMetroid: Nb'nub         -nothing
9. Orlok Tsubodai: Orlok           -???
10. A Joe in the Bush: Joel
11. manukos: General Manukos the IV        -crab
12. BrightnessRadiant: Mya      -???
13. Eternum: Aiden        -???
14. Drake Marshall: Drake           -crab
15. Elenion: Mr. Klenien                        -chalk
16. Alvron: Ronald        -???
17. A Budgie: Rose-Mary Soup       -???

 

So That means that there is me, @Orlok Tsubodai, @BrightnessRadiant, @Eternum, @Alvron, @A Budgie that didnt take anything or took the map. I'm guessing the elim that killed might claim to have taken the map since we don't know who took it. I have only played with Alvron before in the QF game and I died pretty quick in that game so I don't really have a read on anyone else of those that I listed but I will catch up on what I missed last cycle and post again.

 

Hmm, lets get this vote up and running. This is interesting, but also that's still a pretty large pool to find a single killer in.

But probably some of these people either went for the chalk or the crab. Or the map, for that matter (remind me who said they would be going for the map last cycle???). And some people forgot to put in their order.

I shall start by asking Alvron @Alvron what he did last cycle. That is the one I am most curious about.

[MonsterMetroid]

2 minutes ago, Elenion said:

Hmmm, I think we have our first lead. See, village!Joe would have had no motivation to not take the map, because not taking the map would have hurt the village. Therefore, the sneaky person must have attempted to take the map so that Joe didn't get it. Since only an elim sneaky person would have wanted to deprive the village of the map, we can cross-reference the list of active players with the list of players who took items in order to see which active player wanted to deprive us of the map.

In addition, a second eliminator would have had to have put in the elim kill, so we can narrow down a second eliminator from the actions taken as well.

Oh that's a good point I didn't think of that that the person with the map itself could be another elim! Ok that gives usa bit better odds 2/5.

[Elenion]

Just now, MonsterMetroid said:

Oh that's a good point I didn't think of that that the person with the map itself could be another elim! Ok that gives usa bit better odds 2/5.

2/5 would be excellent, but unfortunately we aren't as sure of your alignment as you are. However, the way you took your village-ness for granted does give me a slight village read on you.

[MonsterMetroid]

Just now, Elenion said:

2/5 would be excellent, but unfortunately we aren't as sure of your alignment as you are. However, the way you took your village-ness for granted does give me a slight village read on you.

Oh sorry good point. Sorry, I didn't grab an item

[Kynedath]

58 minutes ago, Elenion said:

So it looks like among MonsterMetroid, BR, Orlok, Eternum, Alvron, and Budgie there are at least 2 elims that we can account for. Of those, I can remember posts from all but Budgie and Eternum, and a quick look at their profiles tells me that both of them were on during the last cycle. That's 2 elims among only 6 people, so let's do this!

Budgie and Eternum both posted last cycle. It was only a single post each however, and didn't really add anything to the conversation. It's always a possibility that inactives are eliminators trying to lie low, but other than that, they don't give us much of anything to work with.

Both MonsterMetroid and BrightnessRadiant were fairly absent, but they both submitted reasons for being so. It would make sense for either of these two to be a traitor in my opinion. A small amount of contribution leads to a small amount of evidence to develop suspicions from, but they were both on enough to check a doc and put in actions.

Orlok was going hard on the analysis of mine and Steeldancer's motives as well as a few others along the way. There is a plethora of reasons why Orlok posted the way he did, but I get strong village vibes from it. His analysis was useful and scrutinized valid points.

Alv played crazy for the first bit, but then turned serious later on. What struck me was how he joined in serious discussion when Steeldancer was in danger of being lynched. There is a possibility that he was trying to save a teammate, but then why did he vote on someone with no votes on them already? Unless most of the others voting on Mac were also eliminators, which is a possibility, it would've been easier to vote on someone with votes already on them, wouldn't it? Another thing is that his reson for voting for Mac is pretty tenuous. Just an evil vibe and a change in playstyle. It was the people after him that accused Mac with sporadic voting that eventually changed the direction of the vote.

I started this post wondering why Drake would be curious about Alv the most since things seemed pretty normal with him, but as I combed through last cycle's posts, I started to see why. In my opinion, Alv seems the most suspicious. I won't put a vote on him yet but I might when I see his response.

[Alvron]

3 hours ago, Drake Marshall said:

I shall start by asking Alvron @Alvron what he did last cycle. That is the one I am most curious about.

First, I had some pizza.
Then I went and rented a clown costume.
On the way back from the costume store I saw a mime so I chased them away.
After that, I took a nap.
When I woke up, I went to bed and slept.
Then I had some leftover pizza.
Followed by donning the clown costume.
More pizza
And another nap.

What did you do?



But really, I did little game wise.  I got caught up doing some SE Mod stuff and missed rollover.  Of course that's not to say I didn't place orders..... 

2 hours ago, Kynedath said:

Alv played crazy for the first bit, but then turned serious later on. What struck me was how he joined in serious discussion when Steeldancer was in danger of being lynched. There is a possibility that he was trying to save a teammate, but then why did he vote on someone with no votes on them already? Unless most of the others voting on Mac were also eliminators, which is a possibility, it would've been easier to vote on someone with votes already on them, wouldn't it? Another thing is that his reson for voting for Mac is pretty tenuous. Just an evil vibe and a change in playstyle. It was the people after him that accused Mac with sporadic voting that eventually changed the direction of the vote.

You can blame Orlok for that.  He sent me a PM and jokingly said he hoped I had a personality shift so I decided to make a couple of posts to humour him.  I wanted to troll him with a drawing or two (which he had sort of asked for) but I had other stuff that needed to be done so that was the best I could do.

[Elenion]

I agree that scrutinizing Budgie and Eternum is a dead end at this point. It's possible that they didn't even put in actions. MonsterMetroid I have a tentative village read on because they assumed their own village-ness. Brightness can be hard to read, I've played enough games of Wolfia with her to know that much.

I just had a thought: where's the thief? What tactical advantage would they gain from taking an item, when nearly every action of theirs needs to be a steal action? It's not nearly as certain as the others, but I think that the thief is in our group of 6 missing actions as well.

Right now my suspicions are on Orlok, so I'll open voting on him this cycle. Orlok. Here are my reasons:

1. No action accounted for last cycle. If he had gone for one of the items that sold out, he would have had a 75%/87% chance of getting it, so the probability is against him missing an item.

2. Orlok pinged Alv to assist in the thread. Now this isn't inherently evil, but it raises my suspicions when Alv votes on Steel and Orlok later changes his vote to go with Alv's on Steel. That sounds to me like greater coordination than just an analysis request in PM.

3. Orlok took a lot of scrutiny last cycle, but then bandwagons suddenly appeared and discussion rocketed away from him. Could one of them (either one) have been an attempt by a teammate or two to save Orlok?

 4. I could make a metagame argument here, but you can't really prove them or disprove them so I won't do it. Every time I do it just derails things from the actual lynch.

There are my suspicions against

[Alvron]

6 minutes ago, Elenion said:

2. Orlok pinged Alv to assist in the thread. Now this isn't inherently evil, but it raises my suspicions when Alv votes on Steel and Orlok later changes his vote to go with Alv's on Steel. That sounds to me like greater coordination than just an analysis request in PM.

I'm not saying Orlok isn't evil but you might want to reconsider this part of your reasons.  Orlok and I have been evil together a few times (3).  We have great synergy with plenty of experience and would never expose ourselves like that if we were teammates.

[Eternum]

So, I don't currently have much time, but I'd like to say that I took nothing from the pile because I didn't send an order in. I forgot, and life got the best of me

I'll try to be more active and more involved in discussion, but I can't promise anything. I'll check in later with some thoughts, but for now I'll have to bid you all adieu.

[Orlok Tsubodai]

2 hours ago, Elenion said:

I agree that scrutinizing Budgie and Eternum is a dead end at this point. It's possible that they didn't even put in actions. MonsterMetroid I have a tentative village read on because they assumed their own village-ness. Brightness can be hard to read, I've played enough games of Wolfia with her to know that much.

I just had a thought: where's the thief? What tactical advantage would they gain from taking an item, when nearly every action of theirs needs to be a steal action? It's not nearly as certain as the others, but I think that the thief is in our group of 6 missing actions as well.

Right now my suspicions are on Orlok, so I'll open voting on him this cycle. Orlok. Here are my reasons:

1. No action accounted for last cycle. If he had gone for one of the items that sold out, he would have had a 75%/87% chance of getting it, so the probability is against him missing an item.

2. Orlok pinged Alv to assist in the thread. Now this isn't inherently evil, but it raises my suspicions when Alv votes on Steel and Orlok later changes his vote to go with Alv's on Steel. That sounds to me like greater coordination than just an analysis request in PM.

3. Orlok took a lot of scrutiny last cycle, but then bandwagons suddenly appeared and discussion rocketed away from him. Could one of them (either one) have been an attempt by a teammate or two to save Orlok?

 4. I could make a metagame argument here, but you can't really prove them or disprove them so I won't do it. Every time I do it just derails things from the actual lynch.

There are my suspicions against

I’m currently unwell, and will come back to this in a couple of hours, but I ended up PMing nearly three quarters of all players last cycle. I think it’s also a misrepresentation to say that I asked Alv for assistance in thread. I asked for his thoughts on Steeldancer and MacThorstenson, both of whom I was suspicious of, just as I asked ten other players their thoughts on the two of them.

[A Budgie]

I assumed the person who went for the map was a Sneaky elim, too. We probably should be more careful about who takes the map next time...
Anyway, on to my own actions. I didn't put in an action, because I thought that this might be a day/night cycle game, where actions could only be done at night. Yes, I should have asked. I've also been at school all day, so I missed the roll-over (and will probably miss future ones, so...that might not go so well).

[Jondesu]

I like the analysis that leads us to a 1/3 chance of hitting an Elim, and I think I agree with it (haven't and probably won't do my own version of it, so for now I'm trusting that those who did and those who agree are correct, until proven otherwise).  This was a nice benefit we knew we might get, so it's good to see it worked out this first round.  Much more information than we usually have to work with!

Of those who are on that list, I have the most knowledge (which isn't saying much) of Orlok and Alv so far this game.  Orlok PMd me, and seemed genuine, and also notably didn't make any attempt to fish for information.  Granted, he's a good enough player to know not to do that, or to be subtle enough not to be caught, but I didn't get an Elim feel from that PM. Alv hasn't PMd me, so I only have what he's posted in the thread, but I don't know that I'm concerned about that like some others.  He seems to be acting fairly normally.

That leaves BrightnessRadiant, Budgie, Eternum, and MonsterMetroid.  Metroid posted the first list of those names, and while if I were an Elim I would consider doing so in order to seem helpful and villager-y, it doesn't look like that, and I think he might have downplayed the chances of hitting an Elim (unless, of course, he knows that analysis is wrong because he knows what his teammates did and it's not what we expected, but that's getting too far into IKYK territory I think).  If there's at least one and possibly two remaining Elims among the last three, my odds are good if I basically guess, and I'd rather hit someone who didn't explain low activity than someone with a valid and stated reason. So, Budgie or Eternum.  I'm going to go with Eternum.  He downplayed the importance of acid to the village, and I obviously disagree, having taken a bucket of acid myself (I find it very useful to have a roleblock ability to help me test suspicions of who may be an Elim, though it's far from perfect, and I don't think it's much more useful to the Elims than the village), and he only said he was busy, which is fine, but obviously he was able to post and could have submitted the kill.  He might even have forgotten to post in the thread until then because he was having a conversation in, say, a doc?

[Eternum]

I did not downplay the importance of acid to the village, as you say, @Jondesu. I only mentioned that it seems to be very useful to Elims, and less so to us, but I may have confused the roleblock ability's use. Does it mean that the target can't take an action at all? Because if so, it's a lot more versatile than I thought.

I have managed to find some time and I'm currently catching up on the thread, making some notes. I'll post any thoughts I have, and a response to all of your accusations, once I'm on my PC, however. 

Edited February 5, 2018 by Eternum
Typo.

[Jondesu]

59 minutes ago, Eternum said:

I did not downplay the importance of acid to the village, as you say, @Jondesu. I only mentioned that it seems to be very useful to Elims, and less so to us, but I may have confused the roleblock ability's use. Does it mean that the target can't take an action at all? Because if so, it's a lot more versatile than I thought.

I have managed to find some time and I'm currently catching up on the thread, making some notes. I'll post any thoughts I have, and a response to all of your accusations, once I'm on my PC, however. 

Yeah, that should be what it means from my reading of the rules. It's very useful for us.

I suppose I'm willing to accept that could have been a genuine mistake.  It sounds like the kind of mistake someone thinking as an Elim would make, though, so for now I'm leaving my vote.

[Eternum]

Well, do you deny that we have to think like elims to figure out who they are? In all seriousness, it was a mistake on my part. Though I'd like @Sart to clarify, anyway.

Edited February 5, 2018 by Eternum
Typo. Again..

[Sart]

Might as well make this the rule clarification post.

On 2/5/2018 at 9:08 AM, Eternum said:

Well, do you deny that we have to think like elims to figure out who they are? In all seriousness, it was a mistake on my part. Though I'd like @Sart to clarify, anyway.

On acid buckets. They are used to cancel out an action. This can cancel out any action, from making the elim kill, to taking an item from the supply. If a bucket of acid stops an item from being used, the item will still be lost.

Quote

Can a Forgotten take an item and make the kill in the same turn?

A Forgotten cannot take an item and make the kill in the same turn. Likewise, a player cannot use an item and take an item in the same turn. Finally, please note that if a player gets unlucky, and tries to take an item with none left in the supply, it will not be recorded in the write-up.

Quote

How exactly does the Crab work?

At the beginning of the next cycle, you learn what action your target took. This includes who they were targeting with their action. If your target was role-blocked, you will be told what they attempted to do, but will not be told they were role blocked.

Edited February 6, 2018 by Sart
Added in Rule Clarifications

[Elenion]

Budgie's defense seems to hold up, at least from what I've seen of them, but I've been wrong about that sort of thing before. Eternum's I'm a little bit less certain on, but it's plausible.

@orlok  Noticeably absent from your post is an alibi for last cycle's action. When you put up your rebuttal I'd appreciate it if you claimed one.

Can anyone else back up Orlok that he sent out PMs asking about Steel and Mac? I didn't get one.

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

18 minutes ago, Elenion said:

Can anyone else back up Orlok that he sent out PMs asking about Steel and Mac? I didn't get one.

I received a PM from Orlok asking about Steel and Mac, and it seems that Jondesu did as well.

[Kynedath]

I also did, and apparently it was enough to change his view of the debacle as evidenced by his last post before roll-over.

[MonsterMetroid]

1 hour ago, Elenion said:

Can anyone else back up Orlok that he sent out PMs asking about Steel and Mac? I didn't get one.

I did not get one, but I haven't gotten PM's from anyone so yeah.

[Jondesu]

Indeed, Orlok’s PM asked about both of them as well as asking my thoughts about him.

[Elenion]

OK, so Orlok sending PMs is beyond dispute, as is their content. I'm still concerned, however, by my other points: the countering bandwagons, the correlation between Orlok's vote and Alv's, Orlok not having taken an item despite having a very high chance to do so and almost certainly putting in an order.

I think most/all of us would agree that we need to lynch one of the 6 with no alibi. I've laid out my case for why Orlok should be our target, but I'm not dead-set on him. Does anyone have a player they'd rather lynch than Orlok, and if so, who and why?