Mid-Range Game 27: Quarantine

[Elenion]

2 minutes ago, Eternum said:

Hm. I know who did it. I'll ask Orlok whether he'd like to disclose that information, though.

You don't have to do it in-thread, just over PM. That way only you two know.

[Eternum]

Oh, we've talked about it. My first PM to him was "Hey, I saw you stole from (person) and I know you're the thief."  So he should be able to confirm.

Edited February 9, 2018 by Eternum

[Elenion]

He actually just told me the same thing, so that matches. OK, alibi confirmed, Eternum didn't do it.

I'm getting a villager-y read from BR's posts at the moment, but the logic says what it says. But in case BR turns out village, that leaves only Monster as the elim.

[BrightnessRadiant]

4 minutes ago, Elenion said:

I'm getting a villager-y read from BR's posts at the moment, but the logic says what it says. But in case BR turns out village, that leaves only Monster as the elim.

So then why not vote monster if Orlok is shooting me? If you think it's one or the other than why don't you vote there?

[Elenion]

9 minutes ago, BrightnessRadiant said:

So then why not vote monster if Orlok is shooting me? If you think it's one or the other than why don't you vote there?

Because Kynedath just revealed themselves to be lying in the thread. Monster has a chance of being an elim, but Kynedath is basically confirmed.

[Kynedath]

Okay, just give me a storming minute to figure out what you're actually accusing me of then! 

[MonsterMetroid]

21 minutes ago, Elenion said:

BR Kynedath Kynedath is lying to us about their reasoning, as I just pointed out above.

I also just thought of a way to verify that Eternum actually did scan Orlok: Crabs tell you the action's target. I just PMed Orlok to ask Eternum who Orlok's target was. If Eternum can't answer, they're lying too.

Wait I'm confused on what part of the reasoning Kynedath is lying about the post you linked to makes sense to me... I mean alvron couldnt use it until the next cycle right?

Edit: I thought I posted this 30 mins ago but the works internet has turned into crap all of a sudden

@BrightnessRadiantIf I was an elim I wouldn't want you to get shot because it would expose me and I would be guaranteed to be lynched next round. As such It really only makes sense to get lynch another elim right now get two for one cycle and if  you did turn up innocent then the rest of the village would lynch me.

[Elenion]

Just now, MonsterMetroid said:

Wait I'm confused on what part of the reasoning Kynedath is lying about the post you linked to makes sense to me... I mean alvron couldnt use it until the next cycle right?

Edit: I thought I posted this 30 mins ago but the works internet has turned into crap all of a sudden

@BrightnessRadiantIf I was an elim I wouldn't want you to get shot because it would expose me and I would be guaranteed to be lynched next round. As such It really only makes sense to get lynch another elim right now get two for one cycle and if  you did turn up innocent then the rest of the village would lynch me.

The post itself makes sense, although I don't agree with it, but when I challenged Kynedath on it they responded:

Quote

I assume you're talking about this? If alv took the map, he couldn't use it. He then passed it off to someone, we still don't all know who. The above post was made during the third cycle. The map wasn't able to be used for the previous two turns. Alv had passed it off, so someone new then had it. There were more villagers than there were elims, so probability stated that a villager had it at that point.

Kynedath explained their reasoning for the post, but they're lying because the post wasn't made during the third cycle. It was made during the second. And Kynedath based their reasoning supporting it on things they wouldn't have known second cycle, like stating Alv had already passed the map off. He couldn't have, because it was still cycle two. Therefore, Kynedath is lying now about a post they made (without a lie) back then, and that's elim behavior.

[Steeldancer]

Ok. Analysis, finally. I apologize once again for not being as active as I would have liked. Hopefully, now that I have 45 minutes of no parents nagging me to do work, I can sit down and enumerate my suspicions. 
I've pretty much given up trying to figure out patterns in who talks to who, so I'm throwing that out. And people have not been doing enough analysis of everyone at once for me to compile patterns. However, voting patterns and action patterns are a thing, so I have my suspicions. I believe the elim team is Devotary, Brightness, and Elenion. 
Elenion has set off elim reads with several posts so far, and now I won't be able to go get them because you guys keep ninjaing me. Suffice it to say there was a post a few cycles ago that really set me on edge. Ill get it if you give me a minute. 
Im voting Devotary Again, especially due to the fact that he has contributed very little. He responded yesterday when I pointed that out by saying that he didn't say anything when he wasn't suspicious of anyone. That is a classic symptom of being an eliminator, not being suspicious of anyone, because you can't afford to be suspicious of your teammates, and clearly villagers are village. Furthermore, he promptly hopped on the bandwagon in the same post. Brightness then threw shade for me not changing my vote, making me more suspicious of her and Devotary possibly being on a team. 
Brightness must be elim, because it seems to be between her and Metroid in terms of putting the first kill in, and I don't see why Metroid would point that out otherwise. If Orlok kills her tonight, and her and Devotary are both eliminators, that could cripple the elim team.
Kynedath, the reason I was stupid is because despite 9 months of playing SE or so, I'm nowhere near immune to being a complete idiot. I forgot a key thing- NEUTRALS ARE NOT VILLAGE. You would think I would have learned that back in L35, or one of the various other games where neutrals were heavily involved, but of course I forgot. That is why I don't trust Orlok, not because he might be an elim- there's no way he is, given the fact that I scanned him stealing from me- but because he, as a neutral, does not inherently have the village's best interests in mind. 

[Kynedath]

Okay @Elenion you're right. It's cycle 2, not cycle 3. I made a mistake and misread the thread. I apologize. However, the fact that it is cycle 2 only strengthens my point that the map could've been with a villager. At the time, we knew that the map had been stolen. The map at that point could not have been used since the sneak had just taken it from the pile. We did not know the identity of the sneak, yet you automatically assumed that it was an elim. I contested that because there was literally no proof that the sneak was an elim, it could also have been village.

Now, the reason I misread the thread (because you're probably going to accuse me of making that mistake because I'm an eliminator) is because I was searching for the exact post that you were mentioning and I had to literally trawl through the whole thread until I found where Orlok claimed and then the next time that I posted about the topic you mentioned. Somewhere in that process, I mistook cycle 2 for cycle 3 and used info based on cycle 3 for my argument.

[BrightnessRadiant]

1 minute ago, MonsterMetroid said:

 

@BrightnessRadiantIf I was an elim I wouldn't want you to get shot because it would expose me and I would be guaranteed to be lynched next round. As such It really only makes sense to get lynch another elim right now get two for one cycle and if  you did turn up innocent then the rest of the village would lynch me.

If I get shot and we lynch a villager this cycle might be over. That's why I said I wasn't sure whether Orlok should shoot me. Yes he suggested it first in thread, but only after I suggested shooting me in pm so we'd stop wasting the lynch discussion on me. I still think you have to be the one who put in the kill. I can't see Eternum having done it and I know I didn't so that's my only possible conclusion.

@Elenion huh I did already post suspicion of Kynedath earlier in the cycle. I'm curious as to what Kynedath is going to say about your accusation.=

[Kynedath]

3 minutes ago, BrightnessRadiant said:

 huh I did already post suspicion of Kynedath earlier in the cycle. I'm curious as to what Kynedath is going to say about your accusation.=

It was a mistake on my part. That's all.

As to voting outside the abstainers, if you are village, sure, you have reason to vote for the abstainers since for you there are only two possibilities and one or both of them is an elim. However, for the rest of us not in the abstainers, the odds favour voting outside of that group of people just because of the numbers. People can choose to trust you, that's what posting is for. However there is no irrefutable proof that you are village and I cannot exempt you from the statistic. I do try to analyze and gather enough information to make an informed decision and vote for people I am suspicious of, but my skills lie mostly in math and statistics. In no way am I saying that we should avoid lynching inside the abstainers, I am saying that statistically there is a higher likelihood of catching an eliminator by voting for people outside of the Abstainers.

[BrightnessRadiant]

@Kynedath yeah I got Ninja'd by your explanation

I understand, but I'm just saying that if we get this lynch wrong it could be game over. 

[Elenion]

Just now, BrightnessRadiant said:

If I get shot and we lynch a villager this cycle might be over. That's why I said I wasn't sure whether Orlok should shoot me. Yes he suggested it first in thread, but only after I suggested shooting me in pm so we'd stop wasting the lynch discussion on me. I still think you have to be the one who put in the kill. I can't see Eternum having done it and I know I didn't so that's my only possible conclusion.

@Elenion huh I did already post suspicion of Kynedath earlier in the cycle. I'm curious as to what Kynedath is going to say about your accusation.=

You just got ninja'd.

1 minute ago, Kynedath said:

Now, the reason I misread the thread (because you're probably going to accuse me of making that mistake because I'm an eliminator) is because I was searching for the exact post that you were mentioning and I had to literally trawl through the whole thread until I found where Orlok claimed and then the next time that I posted about the topic you mentioned. Somewhere in that process, I mistook cycle 2 for cycle 3 and used info based on cycle 3 for my argument.

The problem that I see with this is that if you didn't have that reasoning back when you made your post, that means you made up this reasoning after the fact. This fits with what an elim would do if they needed to justify a lie that they told, but doesn't really fit with a villager explaining what they were thinking at the time.

So my evidence against you is:

1. When the initial voting came in on the abstainers, you didn't seem to want to take a side, which could have been to keep you unassociated with the elim in the abstainers

2. You break the one-vote tie in favor of lynching Alv. Doing so takes the heat off of BR (or Monster if BR is village)

3. In that same post, you rebut my suspicions of Orlok, which further serves to concentrate votes on Alv for the mislynch

4. You claimed that the village might have the map, which the elims would have had knowledge of because none of them had it

     --you've already responded to this one, and your explanation is plausible, but your original post still set off a bad gut feeling

5. In defending that post, you used C3 reasoning which you couldn't have had access to at the time. That tells me you made up this reasoning after the post, not before

6. In this post you start pushing heavily to divert the lynch away from the D1 abstainers and target me. This is notable because it's the same cycle that I begin going after BR, so this seems like an attempt to discredit me and take heat off of BR.

[BrightnessRadiant]

5 minutes ago, Elenion said:

You just got ninja'd.

So did you

[Elenion]

Just now, BrightnessRadiant said:

So did you

It's just a ninjafest out here

[Steeldancer]

1 minute ago, Elenion said:

You just got ninja'd.

The problem that I see with this is that if you didn't have that reasoning back when you made your post, that means you made up this reasoning after the fact. This fits with what an elim would do if they needed to justify a lie that they told, but doesn't really fit with a villager explaining what they were thinking at the time.

So my evidence against you is:

1. When the initial voting came in on the abstainers, you didn't seem to want to take a side, which could have been to keep you unassociated with the elim in the abstainers

2. You break the one-vote tie in favor of lynching Alv. Doing so takes the heat off of BR (or Monster if BR is village)

3. In that same post, you rebut my suspicions of Orlok, which further serves to concentrate votes on Alv for the mislynch

4. You claimed that the village might have the map, which the elims would have had knowledge of because none of them had it

     --you've already responded to this one, and your explanation is plausible, but your original post still set off a bad gut feeling

5. In defending that post, you used C3 reasoning which you couldn't have had access to at the time. That tells me you made up this reasoning after the post, not before

6. In this post you start pushing heavily to divert the lynch away from the D1 abstainers and target me. This is notable because it's the same cycle that I begin going after BR, so this seems like an attempt to discredit me and take heat off of BR.

Elenion, if you're going to point out the fact that Kynedath might have tried to take heat of off Brightness, what about the fact that you tried to take heat off of Brightness just last cycle? While you have a point here, given that I just went through your posts (for some reason I couldn't find the exact one that really set me off, but as a whole his posts do just feel off), I can't just also ignore the fact that you did that too. Specifically, you promptly said that the sneak must be an eliminator. That sounds like something you said because maybe you are an elim, knew you didn't have the sneak, and wanted the sneak dead. (I am assuming there is only one sneak here, given that we haven't seen another sneaky item take). There was also the post where you seem dead focused on the six people, and avoid talking about other people, leading the village to only focus on those people. Frankly, I haven't really liked that limited discussion circle this entire time, and that's exactly why I voted on Devotary last cycle, to get people looking at people besides the ones that are right in front of your face. Then, you talked with Orlok, which took heat off of Brightness on the next cycle. Furthermore, right now you seem to be tunneling for reasons that don't seem all that great to me. I only have a weak village read on Kynedath, but I am much more suspicious of you than I am him. In the light of you being an eliminator, the fact that you voted first on Brightness might just be you - and presumably your team- might an attempt to benefit from the death, by clearing yourselves. I know I voted on Devotary before, but honestly given my even suspicions, and after looking back at the posts another time, I'm more convinced Elenion is the better lynch. We can always lynch devotary tomorrow. 

[Kynedath]

25 minutes ago, Elenion said:

The problem that I see with this is that if you didn't have that reasoning back when you made your post, that means you made up this reasoning after the fact. This fits with what an elim would do if they needed to justify a lie that they told, but doesn't really fit with a villager explaining what they were thinking at the time.

So my evidence against you is:

1. When the initial voting came in on the abstainers, you didn't seem to want to take a side, which could have been to keep you unassociated with the elim in the abstainers

2. You break the one-vote tie in favor of lynching Alv. Doing so takes the heat off of BR (or Monster if BR is village)

3. In that same post, you rebut my suspicions of Orlok, which further serves to concentrate votes on Alv for the mislynch

4. You claimed that the village might have the map, which the elims would have had knowledge of because none of them had it

     --you've already responded to this one, and your explanation is plausible, but your original post still set off a bad gut feeling

5. In defending that post, you used C3 reasoning which you couldn't have had access to at the time. That tells me you made up this reasoning after the post, not before

6. In this post you start pushing heavily to divert the lynch away from the D1 abstainers and target me. This is notable because it's the same cycle that I begin going after BR, so this seems like an attempt to discredit me and take heat off of BR.

I don't have an idetic memory, I don't remember every reason for every post I've made, even in this game. Especially when it was a very short post correcting a minor error in judgement. I had just posted a long summary of my thoughts and then saw that you had made an assumption I thought to be incorrect. It took me four seconds to write that post you're going on about.

When the initial voting on the abstainers came in, I didn't feel strongly that any of them were suspicious, so my decision was to wait and gather information on specifically those few players. Instead of throwing accusations around wildly with little to no conviction, I choose to be informed in my decisions, therefore allowing me to address the points I would most like to be explained by those I am accusing.

If my vote on Alv took pressure off of anyone, it was purely coincidental. Alv seemed the most suspicious to me, Orlok seemed like a villager to me. Your point has merit to it, that is something that an elim would do. However, it is also something a villager would do because they have thoughts on a player. I was voting on the player I thought most likely to be an eliminator. I've already posted my thoughts on why I thought them suspicious when I actually voted on them, so I won't repeat that here.

I sterted pushing for votes against you because you were my top suspect. Even at the time, I was aware that lynching in the abstainers was becoming a less and less likely way of finding an elim. So instead of spending time looking only at those in the abstainers, I broadened my analysis. This brought up many arguments for you being an elim as well.  I've detailed those in the cycle prior, so I will link them here. Note that this is the same link you have linked above. These are arguments that are completely valid, even if they may or may not be true.

Elenion, Your vehement assault on me based on my having suspicions is completely unfounded. I am not a liar, I am simply someone who made poor judgement calls when it came to whom they voted for.

EDIT: ninja'd by Steel, gosh this is a ninja party.

Edited February 9, 2018 by Kynedath

[Elenion]

11 minutes ago, Steeldancer said:

Elenion, if you're going to point out the fact that Kynedath might have tried to take heat of off Brightness, what about the fact that you tried to take heat off of Brightness just last cycle?

I only swapped the BR lynch out for a Budgie lynch that gave us info about BR. I didn't remove the heat, I just took a different approach to finding out BR's alignment, one that didn't require killing BR. Had Kynedath had their way, we wouldn't know anything about BR.

13 minutes ago, Steeldancer said:

Specifically, you promptly said that the sneak must be an eliminator. That sounds like something you said because maybe you are an elim, knew you didn't have the sneak, and wanted the sneak dead.

What other motivation would a sneak have had than keeping the map from the village?

14 minutes ago, Steeldancer said:

There was also the post where you seem dead focused on the six people, and avoid talking about other people, leading the village to only focus on those people.

I admit to having us focus on only the abstainers, because that's where I believed we had the best chance of finding an elim.

15 minutes ago, Steeldancer said:

Furthermore, right now you seem to be tunneling for reasons that don't seem all that great to me. I only have a weak village read on Kynedath, but I am much more suspicious of you than I am him. In the light of you being an eliminator, the fact that you voted first on Brightness might just be you - and presumably your team- might an attempt to benefit from the death, by clearing yourselves.

I don't think I've been tunneling. I started with some general analysis, zoomed in on Kynedath because of their voting habits, and then I spotted the hole in their story.

Also, if I was an elim, wouldn't I have wanted to vote on Budgie instead of BR? Budgie had attracted a lot more suspicion, particularly from Orlok, and voting on BR nearly got me lynched yesterday. It would have been a very unwise thing to do were I an elim.

17 minutes ago, Kynedath said:

Especially when it was a very short post correcting a minor error in judgement. I had just posted a long summary of my thoughts and then saw that you had made an assumption I thought to be incorrect. It took me four seconds to write that post you're going on about.

I'm not as concerned about the short post as I am about how you covered it up afterward. The post itself I had planned to mark as NAI, but your response struck me as very elim.

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

4 hours ago, Elenion said:

6. C1 is now over and items have been distributed. Just like the Thief didn't go for a Bribe C1, I don't think the elims would have gone for Acid, either, so slight village read on Jon. I'm thinking elims would have gone for crabs and chalk, to scan the village and protect against gun attacks. One thing that strikes me as off, though, @Devotary of Spontaneity why did you go for chalk C1? Kynedath was very vocal and I'm just paranoid, but I woudn't have expected the elims to target you.

 

I don't need bribes as much since I am not the thief, I didn't take a bucket of acid because of Eternum's post, and I believed that Joe and Livinglegend were going for the map and the gun respectively. From there, I decided to go for the chalk over a crab because I thought I could get it, because I wanted to make up for QF 29 where the person I was protecting died anyway, and because chalk fits my name better.

If Orlok does end up killing BR tonight, which is not assured as there is chalk and acid out there, it would probably be best to lynch someone o

I don't need bribes as much since I am not the thief, I didn't take a bucket of acid because of Eternum's post, and I believed that Joe and Livinglegend were going for the map and the gun respectively. From there, I decided to go for the chalk over a crab because I thought I could get it, because I wanted to make up for QF 29 where the person I was protecting died anyway, and because chalk fits my name better.

If Orlok does end up killing BR tonight, which is not assured as there is chalk and acid out there, it would probably be best to lynch someone outside of the abstainers. 

Caesura, Jondesu, Manukos and I haven't participated very much outside of a few votes and taking items. Kynedath is in trouble for mixing up C2 and C3. While questioning whether the sneak was a confirmed elim was valid, as it was entirely possible at that point that the sneak merely didn't trust Joe. Steeldancer almost got lynched for his PM strategy on C1. Later, he voted on me for lurking, and is currently focused on Len for being too confident. I will also place my vote on Elenion for now. He was made a number of absolute statements; that the sneak had to have been an elim, that BR must have been the one that placed the kill order, and that Kynedath must be evil for giving an incorrect explanation for a post.

[Jondesu]

Wow, lots of action since I posted.  No point leaving my vote on BR, unless of course Orlok is tricking us all.  I don't completely trust Orlok either, since he's acknowledged he'll work with both sides, but of course neither do I want to lynch him unless he appears to be actively trying to keep us from winning. 

Elenion is acting very aggressive, true.  That's also very normal for him. I don't find anything he's done to be particularly indicative of his alignment, and unusually, I'm finding my gut is telling me to trust him this time around.  Only a little, true, but that's more than it's telling me for most. I find the bandwagon forming on him to be very frustrating, too, since it's not really suspicion based, just play style. 

I have gone back and forth on what has been said about Kynedath, but placing a retaliatory vote based on little other than the fact that Len accused you of being a liar is not a good villager play.  Kynedath, you now have my vote for now, based on Len's logic laid out in his posts about the timeline of your arguments.  He could be fooling me (it's been done before), but it lines up too neatly with things I've said and done as an Elim in previous games.

Currently somewhat suspicious of Steel for jumping around on bandwagons, seemingly with good reason, but also not seeming to care who gets lynched as long as enough people will get behind it. Not a very subtle tactic, but that could be what he's going for.  Devotary I'm not sure about, and as they pointed out, Caesura and Manukos are being remarkably unnoticed for the most part, so I would support a lynch on one of them depending on the results of this cycle, but probably not before next cycle.

Here's the vote count as I figure it, including my vote change:

BrightnessRadiant (0): Elenion, Jondesu

MonsterMetroid (1): BrightnessRadiant

Kynedath (2): Elenion, Jondesu

Devotary of Spontaneity (0): Steeldancer

Elenion (3): Steeldancer, Kynedath, Devotary of Spontaneity

[Kynedath]

@Jondesu personally, I'm not voting for Len based on playstyle, but rather the evidence that I laid out last cycle and that I linked in my post voting on Len. I can't speak for either of the others also voting for him, but I've suspected him since last cycle.

As for his timeline arguments, I just made a mistake reading the thread. I've already explained that as best I can as well, but honestly, it was just me misreading it.

[BrightnessRadiant]

@Elenion reading your posts is a little odd because you're tunneling so hard on me that you're already assuming my alignment 100% and you're basing all of your suspicions already off of the fact that you think I'm an elim. You might want to take a step back and at least do your analysis a tad less biased. You're gonna kick yourself when I flip village if you don't.

[MonsterMetroid]

OK guys sorry I haven't been on as much this cycle I was watching the Olympics and showing off my puppy last night to some friends which reminds me that some people have pmed me requesting some more pictures so here are some. Let me catch up on what I have missed and I will make a post

[Elenion]

4 hours ago, BrightnessRadiant said:

@Elenion reading your posts is a little odd because you're tunneling so hard on me that you're already assuming my alignment 100% and you're basing all of your suspicions already off of the fact that you think I'm an elim. You might want to take a step back and at least do your analysis a tad less biased. You're gonna kick yourself when I flip village if you don't.

Of my six reasons why I suspect Kynedath, only one of those requires that you're an elim, and that's #6. Every other one of those points works regardless of whether the elim is you, Monster, or even Eternum. Even if you could prove to me that you're village right now, I'd still suspect Kynedath. So while I'm fairly sure you're the elim, if you do flip village it won't mess up my analysis on Kynedath.