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Just now, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

If I don't have a strong opinion on who might be evil, I tend to say nothing at all. It's unfortunate, but I don't seem to be able to break the habit. I suppose I will vote for A Budgie today, and if she turns out to be a villager focus on BR and Len.

Hmm. I don't see much reason to join the bandwagon, so I'll just keep my vote where it is. 

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"You can't leave." stated the mob. Rose-Mary Tyler paused, looked at the crowd of soldiers, turned back around, and started walking faster.

Mr. Klenien put his arm on her her shoulder. "I said, 'You can't leave'" She pushed him off, and broke into a run.

"She's getting away!" shouted Mya. The crowd rushed after the quiet woman, blocking her escape. Rose tripped, falling into the dirt.

"Why don't you say something? We're trying to find out who the traitors are, and you're just standing there! You're one of them, aren't you?"

Rose was trying to say something, anything, to get out of this situation. Her tongue refused to work, so she tried ducking between one of the soldier's legs. Caccoo grabbed her before she could escape. It was all the town needed to convince them of Rose's guilt.

Lenny couldn't watch. It was all too much for him. He had never been the brightest man around. How was he supposed to find Forgotten? It wasn't fair. It didn't make any sense. It was starting to rain now. It might wash away the blood, but the stains would remain. There was nothing left. There was only a variety of bribes. He looked at a particularly good bottle of wine. He could take it if he wanted too. It would be better if he was drunk. Sadly, he wouldn't even get that luxury. And as the rain turned into a storm, his blood mixed with the puddles.

Vote Count:
Budgie (5): Caesura, Devotary of Spontaneity, Orlok, Brightness Radiant, Elenion
Elenion (2): Kynedath, Monster Metroid
Devotary of Spontaneity (1): Steeldancer

A Budgie was lynched. They were a Soldier.
Living Legend was killed. He was a Soldier.

Items Taken:

Spoiler

Brightness Radiant took a Bribe.

Camp Supply:

Spoiler
  • 2 Bribes

Player List:

  Hide contents
  1. Kynedath: Myka
  2. MacThorstenson: Thorstein Prepared Soldier
  3. Jondesu: Kadal
  4. Caesura: Lara
  5. Steeldancer: Steelchalk
  6. Devotary of Spontaneity: Cacooo Moreau
  7. livinglegend: Lenny Soldier
  8. MonsterMetroid: Nb'nub
  9. Orlok Tsubodai: Orlok
  10. A Joe in the Bush: Joel Soldier
  11. manukos: General Manukos the IV
  12. BrightnessRadiant: Mya
  13. Eternum: Aiden
  14. Drake Marshall: Drake Prepared Soldier
  15. Elenion: Mr. Klenien
  16. Alvron: Ronald Sneaky Soldier
  17. A Budgie: Rose-Mary Soup Soldier

The cycle will end on Saturday, February 10th at 7PM Eastern Time.

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Edited by Sart
Storm not swarm
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Cycle 1 there were 6 people who could have put the kill in: Orlok, Alv, Budgie, BR, Eternum, and Monster. Alv and Budgie are dead. Eternum's alibi is watertight. Orlok is basically confirmed thief. That makes it either Monster or BR, and Monster wouldn't have purposefully implicated himself when he put up that analysis. That only leaves BR. Let's finish this.

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Well darn.....Budgie, why weren't you evil xD 

Looks like I got nothing to defend myself with that I can think of other than doing a heap of analysis so I'll see what I can do.

I know I didn't make a kill, I know it wasn't Alv or Budgie, Orlok and Eternum have a very "tight" alibi (which I'm turning over in my mind like crazy to see if they're lying), and then there's monster who everyone just keeps claiming can't possibly be an elim. I assure you, if you haven't actually seen their pm or been given GM confirmation, then anyone could be an elim.

So, this still doesn't make me trust Len because as an elim he could easily have stated an either/or situation for me and Budgie and watched the village take us both down, wasting two lynches. I was pretty sure that Budgie was evil and I had to do what I could to go for it.

Something in my mind is telling me not to trust Orlok, Len, Eternum, and Steel. I feel like they've very cleverly maneuvered things or I'm just very paranoid. If I die, just remember, don't trust anyone.

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Ack, sorry, yall, I genuinely thought I had voted last time.  It would have been on Budgie, though, for what it's worth. BR, sorry, but the analysis really only leaves you unless we've got some big glaring hole in our logic. I'm also wary of Len as always, as I said, but if you do turn up Elim, I'll mostly ignore your list, since it would be entirely intended to make people assume they're not Elims with you.

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That sounds good to me. Since BR is as good as dead, and seems to be trying to sow chaos as their last act, I'm fine with Orlok killing them.

I'd like to mention that the only person left that could have taken the map is Monster. Despite their analysis, helpful as it may have been, it seems possible it was just a ruse. Solidifying their position as a villager is a pretty straightforward strategy.

EDIT:I realized after posting this that BR might possibly have the map. One of the two sent in the kill order, either way, and it's very likely both are elim.

EDIT #2: I realized after editing that BR just took an item, so we already know Monster took the map.

Edited by Eternum
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9 minutes ago, Eternum said:

That sounds good to me. Since BR is as good as dead, and seems to be trying to sow chaos as their last act, I'm fine with Orlok killing them.

I'd like to mention that the only person left that could have taken the map is Monster. Despite their analysis, helpful as it may have been, it seems possible it was just a ruse. Solidifying their position as a villager is a pretty straightforward strategy.

EDIT:I realized after posting this that BR might possibly have the map. One of the two sent in the kill order, either way, and it's very likely both are elim.

EDIT #2: I realized after editing that BR just took an item, so we already know Monster took the map.

Alvron was the one who took the map D1. Before he was lynched D2, he passed it on to an unidentified player who then did not use it last cycle.

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@Orlok Tsubodai Ok that does make things a bit more interesting! Are you sure you don't... you know want to steal a bribe from someone? :P Well the analysis from yesterday that I have still stands as far as I see it that we are more likely to catch an elim outside of the 1st night group than in. here are my updated calculations

11 total 1 elim in group 2 in group
in group 25% 50%
out of the group 3 total elims 28.50% 14.29%
out of group 4 total 42.85% 28.50%
out of group 5 total 57.14% 42.85%

 

you will notice the percentages are similiar outside the group and thats because... I made a mistake with my calculations yesterday I divided them by 7 instead of 8 like I should have yesterday so that was my bad :unsure:

@Eternum I do not in fact have the map... I do know who does, but they have asked me not to reveal that they have it. But remember someone didn't take the map alvron gave the map to someone.

Edit: dang ninjad by devotary

Now the thing that came to my mind while thinking about Brightness radiants arguements... I believe Orlok is the thief, but like alvron said a few days ago.

Eternum could still be an elim even if he did scan orlok... Heck Eternum could have put in the kill and BR could have scanned orlok and gave him the info from the doc as an alibi but thats a lot of conjecture. Overall it seems like it would be bad strategy, but now it is something I just can't shake out of my head now that I remember it and it would only be a bad strategy if we didn't consider it... my head hurts

That being said I am still suspicious of elenion as well so I would be interested in hearing what others opinions are especially people like @manukos that we haven't heard from in a while.

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I don't know who has the map. Last cycle I suspected it was Budgie, but since he didn't drop the map when he died that means it wasn't him.

However, I do have a contact (other than Eternum) who confirmed to me that Orlok is the thief, so we can remove our tinfoil hats. :P

I'm glad that Orlok is shooting BR; that way we don't have to burn this cycle with nothing more than a bandwagon. However, are we sure that BR will die? If the elims obtained Chalk from the supply they can keep her alive for a cycle at the cost of suspicion on those who took chalk. For the record, I've already used mine. I'll have some time for analysis this afternoon after physics class but before a date, so expect it with about a day left in the cycle.

@MonsterMetroid I'm sure that Orlok is clean and fairly confident that Eternum is as well, so with BR hopefully dying tonight then I agree that it's better to start looking outside of the abstainers (yes, Kynedath, I'm adopting your terminology).

Also, to the person who used Acid on me last cycle, it was most inconvenient.

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I am hesitant to trust Orlok, I'm going to get to my analysis of the previous cycle after school (it's Friday, so I don't have to do homework!!!). Orlok asked me to scan him last night, and like an IDIOT I did! And he took my bribe. So Orlok is still lying and trying to get bribes, so I'm hesitant to trust that he will actually kill Brightness. He also, according to my logic, is the only one who could have the Map, because I think a villager or eliminator would have already used it to bring another gun/more items into play. I also suggest, if anyone still has an acid bucket, to please use it on Brightness this cycle. That will guarantee her death. So, please, don't give Orlok bribes. (He asked me to give it to him first. Gah). I'm suspicious of Devotary still, but I'm going to see what my analysis digs up. After school.

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@Elenion, someone used Acid on you too?

Also, you can give items to other players? Huh. I didn't know that.

Anyway, are we completely sure Alv gave someone the map? And, @MonsterMetroid, keeping that type of information secret is entirely grounds for a lynch, honestly.

EDIT: Why should we be suspicious of Orlok for trying to win the game? I'm almost certain that both the Village and the Thief can win, if they meet their wincons in the same turn. He also has a much greater chance of winning with the village than with the elims.

Edited by Eternum
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5 minutes ago, Eternum said:

@Elenion, someone used Acid on you too?

Also, you can give items to other players? Huh. I didn't know that.

Anyway, are we completely sure Alv gave someone the map? And, @MonsterMetroid, keeping that type of information secret is entirely grounds for a lynch, honestly.

EDIT: Why should we be suspicious of Orlok for trying to win the game? I'm almost certain that both the Village and the Thief can win, if they meet their wincons in the same turn. He also has a much greater chance of winning with the village than with the elims.

You too? Dang. So many acid-heads in the game.

Alv gave someone the map because he had it, but it didn't return to the stash after he died, so he must have passed it along.

I wouldn't suggest lynching Monster over keeping the map's holder's identity secret. I do that kind of thing all the time, village or elim.

(I'm in class)

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So, yep..I basically suggested to Orlok that he shoot me xD I couldn't think of any way to prove I was innocent and apparently I'm guilty until proven otherwise haha. 

Like, I'd totally want me dead if I didn't know my alignment so I don't blame anyone. I just didn't want to waste another cycle of discussion about it. Everyone already thinks I'm an elim so with my death in mind please consider other options for discussion since we've focused so much on me and budgie for a while and the elims are getting away with murder...literally.

So, I'm gonna try and get some analysis out:
Here's what we know people have said about not having taken anything Cycle 1:

Me: didn't take any actions (that's what I claim and you can believe it or not....I think I'm the only one who believes it xD)

Eternum: says he's a prepared soldier and used his action to scan Orlok and found the Thief

Orlok: the thief and stole from someone

Budgie: didn't take any actions because she forgot that the game wasn't day and night cycles

Monster: same reason as Budgie

Alvron: was the sneaky person who took the map

Okay, so I've been scanning through posts from Cycle one and two and I reaaaally get the feeling that Eternum is an elim. It may even be possible that both he and Monster are elims. Sure Eternum has an alibi for what he did cycle 1...but just because he scanned the thief doesn't mean that he's cleared as a villager? It just means he didn't make the kill on cycle one. He could have easily have made the kills on cycles 2 and 3 since he's not taken any items this whole game.

Everyone discounts Monster as an elim because he pointed out that the elim who made the kill was somewhere in the six people who didn't take items, but why does that clear him? He just said it before anyone else did. That was something that was gonna come up eventually because a number of people had already acknowledged the problem the elims would have with this game in hiding to make kills. I know that legend and Orlok had already discussed it with me in a group pm. Just because Monster pointed that out first doesn't clear him. Since I know it wasn't me and I don't think it was Eternum who actually put in the kill day 1 that only leaves Monster who has no real alibi same as me.

I'd also like to call to attention, the players who haven't been in the spotlight much. Kynedath, Devotary, and Caesura. All 3 have been taking items, posting a little here and there, sometimes voting, and altogether going mostly unnoticed in this game. I think there's a good chance that there's an elim among them.

I know I said I suspect Jon, but since I suspect Eternum then looking back through their interactions I'd say if Eternum is an elim than Jon probably isn't. (but ya know, they could just be really good at distancing xD)

As for Len, I can't decide. I think after reading through lots of his posts I've decided that he's a villager who just naturally tips off my elim radar. xD I dunno why Len, sorry haha.

So let's see:

  1. Kynedath: Myka - possible elim
  2. Jondesu: Kadal - could see either way
  3. Caesura: Lara - possible elim
  4. Steeldancer: Steelchalk - leaning possible village
  5. Devotary of Spontaneity: Cacooo Moreau - possible elim
  6. MonsterMetroid: Nb'nub - leaning elim
  7. Orlok Tsubodai: Orlok - (neutral...who btw can win and we all lose)
  8. manukos: General Manukos the IV - literally have nothing to say about him so leaning village (just seems a bit out of the loop)
  9. BrightnessRadiant: Mya - well me and I know I'm village
  10. Eternum: Aiden - leaning elim
  11. Elenion: Mr. Klenien - leaning village

So that's about it for me rn...I'll try and get on to say more later.

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Analysis post incoming, earlier than I expected:

There are a few things that I'm going to be looking for as I reread the thread. The first of which is players that had the opportunity and reasoning to vote on BR but held back. Expressing suspicion of BR is good, but there were a few players that I remember seeming very hesitant to vote on her. The second of which is players that seemed to know too much about the game state cycle 1 or 2. Thirdly, any analysis that seems intended to throw us off.

1. First post that catches my eye is Kynedath's no D1 lynch post. Especially for a game that could be short, we need discussion, fast. But it appears Kynedath has taken this stance before and so I'm going to call it NAI.

2. A few players are poke-voting C1 and others are holding back. I don't see anything not in character.

3. BR posts suggesting we announce what supplies we're going for. I've already made a large post about why this is detrimental to all but the elims. She support's Orlok's idea of flipping a coin for the gun.

4. Livinglegend says he'll go for the gun and then doesn't. That would give me a bad read on him, if he wasn't already dead and village.

5. Eternum says C1 that he'll suspect anyone that goes for the acid, because the acid would be helpful for elims. While I don't agree with his position, this gives me a village read on him for attempting to choke the elims of supplies.

6. C1 is now over and items have been distributed. Just like the Thief didn't go for a Bribe C1, I don't think the elims would have gone for Acid, either, so slight village read on Jon. I'm thinking elims would have gone for crabs and chalk, to scan the village and protect against gun attacks. One thing that strikes me as off, though, @Devotary of Spontaneity why did you go for chalk C1? Kynedath was very vocal and I'm just paranoid, but I woudn't have expected the elims to target you.

7. The Alv lynch: Now to the fun part: when the votes start coming in on the six. First is village!Drake with a vote on Alv. Kynedath posts analysis but chooses not to vote. Next vote is mine, on Orlok. I was partially right in that he was not village, but he wasn't elim. Next is Jon, voting on Eternum. His reasoning is good, so I don't think this was an attempt to keep suspicion off BR. Note that at this point, there is one vote on 3 different players. Village!Alv then votes on Monster to shake things up. Monster then votes BR instead of Budgie, so village read on him for that. Kynedath reappears, tipping the vote to Alv and rebutting my points against Orlok. I'm getting bad vibes from this post, because Orlok turned out to be the thief and Alv was a villager, and this is the vote that changed the random voting into the Alv bandwagon. Steel then votes on Orlok with me, tying Alv and Orlok at 2. Jon the posts, voting on Alv again and breaking the tie. This isn't as suspicious as Kynedath's because we know Orlok couldn't have asked for assistance in a doc, while BR could, but I still get a slight negative vibe from it. I then remove my vote from Orlok because I don't want to lynch him while he's in the hospital. The other viable lynch at that point is Alv, so I join that bandwagon. Eternum posts but decides to hold his vote back. He says nothing about BR except that he's got no read on her. Eternum then votes on Monster for a misunderstanding, which I'm not sure what to think about. Probably slight elim read. Alv votes Orlok, Orlok votes Alv. Manukos appears and makes a NAI post.

8. Right after the Orlok reveal, Kynedath asks me why the village couldn't have the map. This makes me wonder if Kynedath had inside info that the elims didn't have the map, because I can't see any other way to reach that conclusion.

That's all for now; I'll be back later. But right now I think my analysis is implicating Kynedath.

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Okay, I don't think that we should be voting on the abstainers any more (thanks Len for joining me with the term) since the odds don't support it. There are 11 players remaining. The assumption is that there are 3,4, or 5 eliminators left.

3 elims is the best case scenario. That would be 3 elims, 8 villagers, 3 turns with two village deaths a turn until the elims win. Fortunately, we have four suspects remaining in the D1 abstainers, with one who has been confirmed as the thief, leaving three. Even if we mislynch as much as possible, we still are guaranteed another turn after that.

4 elims would leave 7 village, two village deaths a turn would result in two more cycles. This leaves one more turn of lynching a villager until it's crunch time and we can't make any more mistakes.

5 elims is the worst case scenario. It leaves 6 village and if we mislynch this turn, we lose.

Considering the odds, there is a 1/3 to 1/4 chance (if you include Orlok, but he's basically been confirmed as a thief since eternum was the one who scanned him, and unless they were both eliminators (highly unlikely considering the elims probably would have scrambled for items the same as the rest of the players and wouldn't have had two of their players do nothing) then Orlok will not be an eliminator) of catching an elim in the D1 Abstainers by randomly lynching. Comparing that to the 2/7, 3/7 and 4/7 chances of finding them in the other 8 players.

So again, if we lynch in the D1 abstainers, it's basically a 1/3 chance or 33.3%. If we lynch outside of the D1 Abstainers, the minimum probability is 2/7 or 28.6% and the highest is 4/7 or 57.1%. On average voting outside will give us a 3/7 or 42.9% chance of catching an eliminator.

I think that this is what Monster was trying to say earlier, but I think it bears repeating that our focus should no longer be on Monster, BR, and Eternum. This also raises my suspicion of Elenion since he is keeping his vote there instead of advocating for analysis outside until his very last post. Even then, he did not take his vote off of BR. That raises even more red flags after Orlok stated that he would try to kill them tonight.

By the same logic, I do not trust BR. She as well is keeping her votes to an abstainer. I don't want to vote on her not only because of the low chance of finding someone in the D1 Abstainers, but also because Orlok has said that he will attempt to kill her tonight. I'm inclined to trust Orlok. He's given me an honest vibe from the very beginning, especially when he volunteered to handicap himself for what he considered a balanced game.

Steeldancer is another one who I feel is acting suspiciously. There are a lot of instances where his posts just seem . . . off. Especially for someone who has played SE for as long as he has, I feel like he wouldn't have normally made the error of scanning Orlok when he knew that he wanted his bribe. Initially, he seemed village to me because of his passionate posts about his ideas (still don't know exactly what those were) but it could've just been a ploy to create confusion.

Those three are the ones I feel are the most evil, or an elim team of three, they'd be my bet, but I would probably look at their connections to other players to find the other one after seeing their alignments, because I am completely convinced that one or more of them are eliminators.

Concerning Len's post saying his analysis implicated me, I'm not going to lie, it confused me. Not like "I'm confused as to why this would implicate me" but as in "what are the point's you're trying to make here?" If you can clarify your major points against me, maybe I could defend against them a bit better. At this point, the only thing I can clearly see is your 8th point.

Quote

Just one more thing before I head out from school and lose wifi, @Elenion it takes a turn to be able to use the map, so for all we know the sneak took it and is using it this turn.

I assume you're talking about this? If alv took the map, he couldn't use it. He then passed it off to someone, we still don't all know who. The above post was made during the third cycle. The map wasn't able to be used for the previous two turns. Alv had passed it off, so someone new then had it. There were more villagers than there were elims, so probability stated that a villager had it at that point. Considering that it still hasn't been used, I would think that either Orlok or an eliminator has it. Orlok could be working towards his thief goal and Steel claimed that Orlok stole from him last night, meaning that he could have it and not be using it. Elims would profit from not having more items in the pile since it hinders the village from finding them or protecting themselves. I used logic that I no longer apply to the situation, that's why I said it could be a villager.

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@BrightnessRadiant you do have some good points. I mean with eternum having an alibi of the night of the first kill it has to be either you or me that did it. You are right that I did come up with the analysis of who didn't grab things the first day and knowing that one of them must be an elim, and saying that this doesn't prove my innocence. But I can say I have tried to help the village the best I can, I asked orlok to reveal whether eternum actually had scanned him or not to everyone. Without that knowledge we would still be having a three way debate on who to lynch instead of two. If I was an elim that would have been a stupid thing to do! The only other thing I can say is that Orlok trusts me and at one point elenion did but maybe this whole accusing him of being an elim thing hasn't helped that (nothing personal @Elenion :) ).

The only other thing I can say is that if I get lynched and brightness radiant gets shot the best we can hope for is 1 dead villager and 1 dead elim and thats before the elim kill. At this point in the game we can't afford to make a mistake especially an avoidable one. We can still win this but we need a big play this turn.

Edit: also I wanted to point out that Budgie had the same excuse as me not the other way around :D also I had/have puppers which big sidenote has grown a ton since this game has started!!

Edited by MonsterMetroid
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1 hour ago, Kynedath said:

The above post was made during the third cycle. The map wasn't able to be used for the previous two turns. Alv had passed it off, so someone new then had it.

That's a lie. The post is here, on page 8. Alv's death and alignment weren't reported until page 9, so your reasoning that you give for this post must be fictitious.

Edit: to clarify on this, page 8 is the second cycle, not the third. Alv hadn't passed it off because he'd only picked it up at the end of C1, and so this post was definitely not about who Alv had passed it to like Kynedath says it is.

Edited by Elenion
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@Kynedath Why are we looking outside of the day 1 abstainers completely? Someone made a kill on that cycle. There's only 4 people who it could be. I didn't do it and I'm convinced Orlok is the thief at this point. So that leaves me to a 50/50 that Monster or Eternum put in the kill and and only Eternum has a claimed alibi. Monster just said he forgot to take an item. Ofc I want a lynch out of a 50/50 chance of getting an elim because I know my own alignment. 

I asked Orlok to shoot me, and he said he will. I'm just trying to figure out if that's the best thing because we have 11 players left. One thief, probably 3 or 4 elims, which leaves us with about 6 villagers. If Orlok shoots me, we lynch wrong, and the elims put in a kill then we could be down to 3 villagers which means we could lose this cycle.

Ninja'd by @MonsterMetroid I'm worried that if you get lynched and I get shot that we'll lose 3 villagers this cycle and that's game. Do the elims just have to outnumber the village? Because I don't see it in the original rules and I can't remember if it was ever clarified? 

 

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BR Kynedath Kynedath is lying to us about their reasoning, as I just pointed out above.

I also just thought of a way to verify that Eternum actually did scan Orlok: Crabs tell you the action's target. I just PMed Orlok to ask Eternum who Orlok's target was. If Eternum can't answer, they're lying too.

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