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14 minutes ago, Coral Swan said:

It's kind of hard to say this in RP, so:

Killing an inactive is less helpful than forgoing the D1 lynch entirely. It gives no useful information. In the last LG, an inactive elim was lynched D1, and then nothing useful was gained from, despite the fact that there were two competing bandwagons and the identities of both players were learned. Furthermore, this game allows for pinch hitters, which means that killing inactive players will decrease the total activity level in this game. Killing an inactive D1 is an easy way out of an otherwise hard decision, which is why some people hold that position. It's a nice middle ground. But with this ruleset especially, it is only helpful to the eliminators to lynch an inactive player.

I see your point, though I would point out that the chance of hitting an inactive Elim is always present, so it’s not only helpful to the Elims to lynch an inactive, though I suppose with the pinch hitter mechanic it’s less useful in this game. And from a statistical standpoint we are more likely to hit a villager. 

However, I don’t particularly see how lynching a contributing member is any better. We kill an active participant, but we still gain little info in regards to the other players (unless early comments about them count). Added to that, if lynching an inactive is really as bad as you say, than I will revert to my original position that I don’t want a D1 lynch. I just don’t see what it will really tell us. You’d have to lynch someone that nearly everyone has commented on. And right now, that person is...me. So maybe I should vote myself if that will help the village gain info? While it may be in the village’s best interests, my selfish desire for self-preservation will prevent me from pulling a stunt like that.

14 minutes ago, Oxblood Beagle said:

Ehhhh... I'm pretty sure I know who Dragonfly is, and they are a new player. I'd be inclined to let a new player go for now, and lynch them later. Killing them day one isn't the best way to integrate them into the community. 

While I appreciate that you are defending me, this is not the best path for the village. If people are suspicious of me, they should lynch me. In fact, my relative inexperience in the game may actually make a lynch on me helpful, as you won’t have to deal with my naïve comments and misguided votes, even if I am a villager. I honestly should have followed a few more games of SE before joining this one- I may have been too excited to start playing, even if I did go back and read through some old game threads. If I’m lynched early here, I can always join the next game, and perhaps with a bit more experience so I don’t get lynched D1. Plus, my lynch will provide information. I’m not saying I want out of this game, I’m simply saying that you should do what’s best for the village, as my feelings won’t be hurt if you lynch me. But I’ll fight to stay in as long as I can. For now, that includes moving my vote onto Taupe Gecko, if I’m voting on an active player, for his seemingly random voting patterns.

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I think the vote count right now looks something like:

Swan(0): Tuatara

Meerkat(0): Ostrich

Weasel(2): gecko, Ostrich

Penguin(1): Beagle

mouse(1): Dingo

Dingo(1): Tuatara, Scorpion, Falcon

Elephant(1): Hyena

Axolotl(0): Dragonfly

Scorpion(1): Tuatara

Octopus(0): kangoroo, octopus, Gecko

corocodile(1): gorilla

Vulture(1): Scorpion

Gecko(2): Kangoroo, Dragonfly

Dragonfly(1): Swan

Edit 3: I forgot about a rule and have removed the offending white text. Now to make my own encoder.

Let me know if I missed anything, but at the moment Gecko is being lynched.

Edit: Dragonfly, we're happy to have you here, experienced or not. :)

Edit 2: Updated with Ostrich's vote.

Edited by Violet Axolotl
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I agree with the Scorpion. Let us have RNGebus decide who dies. If Axolotl's list is correct, than Weasel

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Okay, this won't be in RP because I'm tired, RP takes time and this needs to be said. @Ivory Dragonfly, Experience is not an important factor. If you hadn't mentioned it, I'd have thought you where one of the semi-regulars, actually, based on what you're doing and saying. Just keep playing, as giving up doesn't help the village at all.

Edited by Sunburst Toucan
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1 hour ago, Indigo Weasel said:

Probably because some people just enjoy to find identities of others, not for some certain reason. So I don't see any problems with people trying to figure out who is who. And if new player really in danger of being lynched I prefer not to lynch him\her so early.

Looks like we found Alv or atleast someone who tries to look like Alv. You want more ties did I understood you right? But right now no one gonna die because:

And if this vote count is right:

Right now no one will be lynched.

Thanks! And no, I’m not Alv, but yes that was intentional. :P

And I had missed the two vote minimum. In the spirit of maintaining a tie, let’s add another vote on Penguin  (taking it off Vulture). Hopefully name shortcuts will be ok since these combos are just getting confusing.

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Ivory Dragonfly. Taupe Gecko. The thing is, we have to start somewhere. Some games start in the night, so the elims get to kill someone before the game starts. But that causes the same problem; somebody dies before they really get to participate. By having a D1 lynch, everyone gets to contribute something before the first death. And random voting patterns is a perfectly good reason for a D1 lynch.

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6 minutes ago, Coral Swan said:

And random voting patterns is a perfectly good reason for a D1 lynch.

Aha! A little noncommittal there, aren't we? Anyways, be careful what you wish for, because my mental RNG just told me to vote for Coral Swan :D

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Vanna shook her head. This place was going downhill faster than she thought possible. Sure, the blacksmith had been a stabilizing influence, but she hadn't thought things would go this badly this quickly once he was gone. First there was Nolan, who'd been just about ready to give himself up, not because of a belief of guilt but because he considered himself dead weight or something. Why in the Stormfather's name would he think that? Everyone knew that if you needed a discussion about some piece of history or an obscure bit of knowledge settled, you'd come to Nolan. The man was a veritable fountain of knowledge!

Then there where all the seemingly random accusations, and even people arguing that this was a good idea somehow! Justice is based on accountability! if everyone can just claim to have made their accusation on a whim, then how can you hold people accountable and find the culprit? It was like everyone was letting their passions get the best of them...

'Oh Storms...'

Edited by Sunburst Toucan
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5 minutes ago, Sunburst Toucan said:

Okay, this won't be in RP because I'm tired, RP takes time and this needs to be said. @Ivory Dragonfly, Experience is not an important factor. If you hadn't mentioned it, I'd have thought you where one of the semi-regulars, actually, based on what you're doing and saying. Just keep playing, as giving up doesn't help the village at all.

I have no intention of giving up, I’m simply trying to make the same point you are: experience doesn’t matter. I don’t want people to not lynch me just because I’m newer; in fact, that kind of defeats the point of a lynch (to kill the most likely suspect). I will defend myself against a lynch on me, I’m just saying that I understand where people are coming from.

@Coral Swan I’m actually kind of worried about the Gecko lynch, as the random voting seems a little odd for an Elim. By voting strangely, and then refusing an explanation, he must have known he would make himself a target. If he was Elim, why would he expose himself like this? This makes me think he might be village, but I’ll keep my vote on him for now because there aren’t really better alternatives, and even if he’s doing it intentionally, the voting is Elim-like behavior, and the explanation-less votes don’t help the village. His recent vote on you, however, seems calculated to generate a response. I’m not really sure what to make of this, but I’ll stay the course for now. Hopefully we’ll learn more upon his death (if the lynch on him solidifies). 

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3 minutes ago, Ivory Dragonfly said:

I have no intention of giving up, I’m simply trying to make the same point you are: experience doesn’t matter. I don’t want people to not lynch me just because I’m newer; in fact, that kind of defeats the point of a lynch (to kill the most likely suspect). I will defend myself against a lynch on me, I’m just saying that I understand where people are coming from.

@Coral Swan I’m actually kind of worried about the Gecko lynch, as the random voting seems a little odd for an Elim. By voting strangely, and then refusing an explanation, he must have known he would make himself a target. If he was Elim, why would he expose himself like this? This makes me think he might be village, but I’ll keep my vote on him for now because there aren’t really better alternatives, and even if he’s doing it intentionally, the voting is Elim-like behavior, and the explanation-less votes don’t help the village. His recent vote on you, however, seems calculated to generate a response. I’m not really sure what to make of this, but I’ll stay the course for now. Hopefully we’ll learn more upon his death (if the lynch on him solidifies). 

By pure probability, Gecko is probably village. But we do have to start somewhere. However, I'll be keeping my vote on Penguin unless they show up. 

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More than probability, but I figure you weren't going to catch an eliminator anyhow.

Do me a favor and learn something good with this though.

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3 hours ago, Taupe Gecko said:

No, not really.

My early-game screwery shall not be comprehended that easily, thank you very much.

Scarlet Octopus.

Yeah that didn't really help you any.

3 hours ago, Scarlet Octopus said:

Yeah, I just wanted to have a memorable entrance. Also, it was really fun to come up with something to say for each of your sentences.

Hmm, I did misread Elsecaller as Edgedancer. Why the heck do you care if an elsecaller gets lynched?

And yes, I am asking why the lynch cannot be put off indefinitely. :P We have village killing roles, why not let them stain their hands with the blood of our comrades? No reason to have all of us be guilty.

Well it'll stand out in my memory, at least. :P 

It effectively wastes a lynch, and in my experience, also tends to cause stagnation in discussion.  Everyone's all like, "Oh, so uh.  He didn't die.  Now what?  Do we lynch him again?"

Yeah that doesn't work out so well.  The lynch is in the game for a reason, and is an important tool.

3 hours ago, Ivory Dragonfly said:

I concur with Scarlet Octopus that it is strange that @Sage Kangaroo is concerned about lynching an Elsecaller. Other than their ability to survive the lynch and spitefully take revenge on those who lynched them by voting for them in turn, I don’t really see a reason to fear lynching an Elsecaller. The only situation that may muddy the waters would be if the Elims pushed a lynch on their Elsecaller teammate in some kind of weird WGG, but I find that unlikely. But I’m getting sidetracked!

Answered above.  It's really just annoying and yech-y.  And it wastes a lynch.

8 minutes ago, Taupe Gecko said:

More than probability, but I figure you weren't going to catch an eliminator anyhow.

Do me a favor and learn something good with this though.

I'm not entirely sure about the Gecko lynch anymore actually.  I mean, this could definitely be some sort of reverse psychology, but I kind of doubt it.  Seriously though, Gecko, I'd love to know what you're thoughts were when you made those posts.  Chaotic voting patterns and posts have this tendency to get you lynched, even if it's not really an Elim thing to do.  And referring to your own actions as screwery?  Not so good. :P 

Edit;  I would like to note that even if you think that Taupe is going to be the lynch target for the cycle, it's not a reason to stop discussing, or analyzing, for the cycle.  We've got about a whole day left, and that's time that should be put to good use.

Edit 2;  And a vote count would be lovely.

Edited by Sage Kangaroo
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My thinking with D1 lynches is always that it gives us information. We need to start somewhere, as a village, and work ourselves from there. 

As to what the lynch actually is, we have Penguin (as a counterlynch to Gecko), and Gecko. Now, I don't see much reason to go for Penguin (haven't seen much of them yet) other than inactivity, but if you saw Seonid's discourse in the previous LG and Orlok's big speech on inactivity in the signups, Inactivity will be accounted for. I'm sure our faithful GMs have implemented multiple inactivity filters that will solve Penguin. Thus, lynching Penguin is useless and redundant.

As for Gecko, it "explained" itself, but in vague pinkish terms. Please, please, provide a bit more than that, even if you are simply admitting it was a poke vote, or a random vote. Thus, Gecko is, I feel, a distraction implemented by itself and its own ambiguity. It provides so little information that literally everything about it is nonalignment indicative, and to lynch it would provide no stable leads.

Thus, in the face of two poor lynches, I feel we must take a new route. It might be a little late for such a U-turn, but I think we need to force discussion in a new direction.

Coral Swan. In all seriousness, not just your uncanny similarity to pink in hue, I feel that you should be a new target for the lynch. Please realize that I have no information about you, garnered from previous cycles, or anything. My main drive for this is to bring forward a more probable lynch candidate for D1.

To begin my claim, I will begin with your vote on Ivory Dragonfly, which you cast in RP. Two things are strange about this. First, is your suspicion of Ivory. You provided no evidence for this, despite the fact that Ivory had been one of the more active participants in discussion, giving you ample information to sift through to give reason to your vote. It also raises the question of why you wanted to lynch an active player anyways, and a new one at that. You only said that you didn't want to lynch an inactive. I feel that if you chose to push a lynch on an active player over an inactive one, you should provide more evidence.

Second, is your RP itself. You've established an RP base for yourself, but little else. This is not to say that I despise RP, in fact I find it fun and creative. But RP should be moderated with game discussion and contribution. Another habit you seem to have acquired is inserting ingame information into your RP, making it tedious and confusing what your actual meaning is. That might not be a proper lynching platform, but it is a little distracting.

@Coral Swan I understand that no SE player wants to be lynched D1, but it is a critical part of the game. Indeed, this game revolves around Death. If I did not feel this was best for the village overall, I would not have been so forward in pushing for your lynch. A good day to you too.

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10 minutes ago, Salmon Meerkat said:

My thinking with D1 lynches is always that it gives us information. We need to start somewhere, as a village, and work ourselves from there. 

As to what the lynch actually is, we have Penguin (as a counterlynch to Gecko), and Gecko. Now, I don't see much reason to go for Penguin (haven't seen much of them yet) other than inactivity, but if you saw Seonid's discourse in the previous LG and Orlok's big speech on inactivity in the signups, Inactivity will be accounted for. I'm sure our faithful GMs have implemented multiple inactivity filters that will solve Penguin. Thus, lynching Penguin is useless and redundant.

As for Gecko, it "explained" itself, but in vague pinkish terms. Please, please, provide a bit more than that, even if you are simply admitting it was a poke vote, or a random vote. Thus, Gecko is, I feel, a distraction implemented by itself and its own ambiguity. It provides so little information that literally everything about it is nonalignment indicative, and to lynch it would provide no stable leads.

Thus, in the face of two poor lynches, I feel we must take a new route. It might be a little late for such a U-turn, but I think we need to force discussion in a new direction.

Coral Swan. In all seriousness, not just your uncanny similarity to pink in hue, I feel that you should be a new target for the lynch. Please realize that I have no information about you, garnered from previous cycles, or anything. My main drive for this is to bring forward a more probable lynch candidate for D1.

To begin my claim, I will begin with your vote on Ivory Dragonfly, which you cast in RP. Two things are strange about this. First, is your suspicion of Ivory. You provided no evidence for this, despite the fact that Ivory had been one of the more active participants in discussion, giving you ample information to sift through to give reason to your vote. It also raises the question of why you wanted to lynch an active player anyways, and a new one at that. You only said that you didn't want to lynch an inactive. I feel that if you chose to push a lynch on an active player over an inactive one, you should provide more evidence.

Second, is your RP itself. You've established an RP base for yourself, but little else. This is not to say that I despise RP, in fact I find it fun and creative. But RP should be moderated with game discussion and contribution. Another habit you seem to have acquired is inserting ingame information into your RP, making it tedious and confusing what your actual meaning is. That might not be a proper lynching platform, but it is a little distracting.

@Coral Swan I understand that no SE player wants to be lynched D1, but it is a critical part of the game. Indeed, this game revolves around Death. If I did not feel this was best for the village overall, I would not have been so forward in pushing for your lynch. A good day to you too.

Um, coral swan is by no means nonsensical. Alvron spent an entire game spouting bobbly-gook that ended up being game related. If you want distracting, try dealing with that. 

The problem with what we're doing is that we are going after someone who's actually talking. As poke votes probably don't make a difference, chartreuse penguin  Mint Heron  . Minimal activity isn't great for the village, and is exactly what I would do to avoid notice in such a large game. @Mint Heron can you please contribute more than a short quip? 

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2 hours ago, Coral Swan said:

It's kind of hard to say this in RP, so:

Killing an inactive is less helpful than forgoing the D1 lynch entirely. It gives no useful information. In the last LG, an inactive elim was lynched D1, and then nothing useful was gained from, despite the fact that there were two competing bandwagons and the identities of both players were learned. Furthermore, this game allows for pinch hitters, which means that killing inactive players will decrease the total activity level in this game. Killing an inactive D1 is an easy way out of an otherwise hard decision, which is why some people hold that position. It's a nice middle ground. But with this ruleset especially, it is only helpful to the eliminators to lynch an inactive player.

I agree that lynching inactives doesn't give us a lot of information but the same can't be said for lynching an inactive elim. I mean it helps us get closer to our victory condition. I know you didn't mean it in the sense that lynching an elim doesn't help us at all but that it doesn't help us information wise which is true. I just wanted to point it out incase someone takes the wrong meaning, if that is indeed what you meant. 

However, the pinch hitters part makes total sense and I agree. If they stay inactive then we get a pinch hitter and hopefully the activity increases. 

3 hours ago, Oxblood Beagle said:

Anyway, as someone was trying to say, only a few people haven't said anything yet. Since Everyone else has at least said something, i think we should concentrate on the lynch. I think having one vote on a bunch of people might be a bad idea. 

I'm taking this to mean that everyone voting separately on different people is a bad idea. I guess at this point we can't really expect a consensus since not everyone has posted, like you said, and second, I feel quite a few people have been giving a village vibe so far. But there should still be a lynch, I think, as we can learn a lot. Especially from the dead player's interaction with other players and even better if they turn out to be an elim.

Ivory, in my opinion, feels very village minded, especially when they talk about letting themselves get lynched so they can help us out more. I think some people see that as something elims say to get out of a lynch, as I have seen pointed out in other games sometimes, but it comes across as very genuine here to me. Gecko again, strikes me as rather villagery as the random voting puts them in the spotlight which elims want to avoid. Aside from a few players seeming villagery, no one stands out to me as particularly elimy, on the account that not everyone has even posted yet. I will consider Salmon's case on Coral later. I will place this vote on Scorpion for no particular reason as of now except tone and in fear of getting a runaway wagon on coral. Subject to change when I come on next.

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@Salmon Meerkat I'm not sure why you are apologetic about voting for me. I have been very vocal about pushing for a D1 lynch, and if it falls on me then it falls on me. As far as "evidence" for my vote on Ivory, there isn't any evidence yet. Everyone that isn't an elim is guessing, and the elims are voting randomly to make it look like guessing. However, Ivory argued for something that was harmful to the village, which is why I voted for her (Ivory sounds female to me). I mentioned that in my RP, and that part about people having a change of mind was referring to pinch-hitters. I clarified all that with my next post though.

As for the thing about new players, this is the first Anonymous Game. So while I believe that Ivory is probably a new player, that sort of thing shouldn't be important. Anybody could claim to be a new player to get out of the D1 lynch and we wouldn't be any the wiser for a few weeks. This game should somewhat level the playing field between veterans and newcomers.

As for my RP, I'm not going to change my habits. It's more fun to me, and honestly it should be easier to read than an analysis post.

Part of the reason for my vote on Taupe was that they already had 2 votes. I'm open to considering multiple people for the lynch, but if nobody is facing the threat of dying then we won't get as much information out of this. There should be 4-6 elims based on the 20% and square root rule, also considering them having power roles (and that the village has lost every AG). If we assume 6 elims and pick 3 people to choose from to lynch, there is a 50% chance at least one of the 3 is an elim. That means we have a 50% chance of forcing the elims to have a stake in the discussion, which is what we want. So my vote will stay for now.

 

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Personally, I'd prefer no one be lynched on day 1, but that doesn't seem to be happening. *sigh*  Ivory Dragonfly at least feels like village to me at the moment, but I really don't want to add to a lynch train on Coral. I'll tentatively put my vote on Pearl Chameleon, as they did actually post at the beginning of the game, but haven't contributed anything more since. @Pearl Chameleon 

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I’m a he. And, I might add, Jasnah’s Spren is Ivory and he is also male. I have no control over my username. 

In light of recent arguments (one my own) supporting the idea that Gecko is village, I’m tempted to remove my vote from him. However, one element I had not previously considered gives me pause. Gecko knew his posting would attract attention, and lynch votes. Once these votes are down, however, most of us come to the logical conclusion that an elim wouldn’t draw attention to himself like that; therefore, he’s probably just a villager trying to be deliberately confusing. We begin to look elsewhere for, and eventually find, alternative targets for the lynch. This is a win for elim!Gecko, who has been looked at and passed over on the first cycle, giving him several rounds before we begin to suspect him again. While “strange villager Gecko” is more likely than “applying advanced levels of reverse psychology Gecko,” we shouldn’t dismiss the second possibility out of hand. So for now, my vote stays where it is. Especially considering that the lynch is splitting back up, having a bit of stability is welcome, I think. 

@Violet Axolotl I agree that I would like to avoid a lynch, but seeing as one is inevitable, I’d like to take a player that’s openly suspicious and active. It’ll give us a larger info base to lynch Gecko than if we just killed a lurker, though I’ll agree that I don’t appreciate having them around. We can lynch them later if they seem suspicious.

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All of these anonymous account names are very confusing to keep track of.

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@Violet Axolotl Good timing. I was hoping to make another post tonight.

On the Gecko lynch, I don't think it's helpful. Every time I've seen someone playing this way, it's never been because they're an elim. Gecko's behavior is confusing, not suspicious. I'm pretty certain that they're a villager. Unless they do anything suspicious, I'd rather let them have fun playing in a way they enjoy.

I agree that we should have a D1 lynch, and we shouldn't be trying to lynch inactive players. Lynching a player because they're inactive gives us no discussion. So you have the downsides of a D1 lynch (you'll probably kill a villager) with none of the benefits (we can look at everyone's votes and arguments with the benefit of hindsight to find something suspicious). I can understand arguing against a D1 lynch, even if I disagree, but why would you want to lynch an inactive player? We might hit an elim if we lynch an inactive, but the odds of that are so low that it doesn't make lynching an inactive more attractive than a no lynch.

1 hour ago, Sage Kangaroo said:

It effectively wastes a lynch, and in my experience, also tends to cause stagnation in discussion.  Everyone's all like, "Oh, so uh.  He didn't die.  Now what?  Do we lynch him again?"

I can see how D1 discussion can be easier to analyze after the lynchee dies, because we know then their role and alignment. But on the other hand, wouldn't hitting an Elsecaller have allow us to gain the benefits of D1 discussion while preventing us from killing a villager with little evidence?

8 hours ago, Melon Dingo said:
12 hours ago, Emerald Falcon said:

Melon Dingo. They were quite active until a couple of votes got thrown around on them, seems like a good way to slide back into the crowd as a potential elim as opposed to arguing. Note, could be a time zone/availability thing.

It was.

Not sure if I messed up the formatting there, but hopefully that works...

The fact that @Melon Dingo slid back into the shadows after defending himself makes me wonder if Falcon was right. It seems like he posted to save himself but doesn't want to risk getting too involved in the conversation for fear of drawing attention or suspicion. I find it odd that he didn't try to disprove Falcon's point by joining the discussion. So my vote will go to Dingo. Coral's vote on Ivory did stand out to me, but their reasoning does make some sense. I don't agree that there's anything suspicious about their RP. Coral isn't a bad lynch candidate, but I'd rather vote on Dingo for now just because they seem like the better alternative.

I'll try to sneak on again tomorrow before the turn ends to see where things are at, but I can't promise that.

 

11 minutes ago, Cream Tuatara said:

All of these anonymous account names are very confusing to keep track of.

Yes, yes they are. :huh:

I swear, I am going to accidentally use wrong pronouns on somebody in this game...

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Current vote count. I think I got it, but someone should probably double check it.

 

Swan(2): Tuatara, Gecko, Meerkat

Meerkat(0): Ostrich

Weasel(1): gecko, Ostrich

Penguin(0): Beagle

mouse(1): Dingo

Dingo(2): Tuatara, Scorpion, Falcon, Dingo

Elephant(1): Hyena

Axolotl(0): Dragonfly

Scorpion(2): Tuatara, Albatross

Octopus(0): kangoroo, octopus, Gecko

corocodile(1): gorilla

Vulture(1): Scorpion

Gecko(3): Kangoroo, Dragonfly, Swan

Dragonfly(0): Swan

Heron(1) : Beagle

Chameleon(1) : Axolotl

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2 hours ago, Oxblood Beagle said:

Um, coral swan is by no means nonsensical. Alvron spent an entire game spouting bobbly-gook that ended up being game related. If you want distracting, try dealing with that. 

I understand that bit. Really, I wanted another point to express to make my argument seem more valid.

1 hour ago, Coral Swan said:

@Salmon Meerkat I'm not sure why you are apologetic about voting for me. I have been very vocal about pushing for a D1 lynch, and if it falls on me then it falls on me. As far as "evidence" for my vote on Ivory, there isn't any evidence yet. Everyone that isn't an elim is guessing, and the elims are voting randomly to make it look like guessing. However, Ivory argued for something that was harmful to the village, which is why I voted for her (Ivory sounds female to me). I mentioned that in my RP, and that part about people having a change of mind was referring to pinch-hitters. I clarified all that with my next post though.

As for the thing about new players, this is the first Anonymous Game. So while I believe that Ivory is probably a new player, that sort of thing shouldn't be important. Anybody could claim to be a new player to get out of the D1 lynch and we wouldn't be any the wiser for a few weeks. This game should somewhat level the playing field between veterans and newcomers.

As for my RP, I'm not going to change my habits. It's more fun to me, and honestly it should be easier to read than an analysis post.

Part of the reason for my vote on Taupe was that they already had 2 votes. I'm open to considering multiple people for the lynch, but if nobody is facing the threat of dying then we won't get as much information out of this. There should be 4-6 elims based on the 20% and square root rule, also considering them having power roles (and that the village has lost every AG). If we assume 6 elims and pick 3 people to choose from to lynch, there is a 50% chance at least one of the 3 is an elim. That means we have a 50% chance of forcing the elims to have a stake in the discussion, which is what we want. So my vote will stay for now.

 

Thank you. Again, about the RP, I was trying to find something to shift suspicion towards you to make my argument seem more valid.

As for your other points, those are valid. You and I seem to have different opinions about the lynch, which is okay. However, the ever more pressing question is who to lynch. And your statistics are faulty. If there are 30 players, and we assume 6 Elims, there is only a 20% chance that we lynch an Elim. If we use your scenario, 6 lynch candidates, how can we be sure that there are even any Elims in that group? If we have a group of all villagers, then there is a 0% chance of lynching an Elim. But we have no idea what the alignments are in the group, so we can draw any conclusions yet.

And I'm apologetic because I'm sympathetic. I try to be an honorable player. 

I see an immediate problem with the 3-way tie for two votes right now. If a vote were to be taken off Gecko, we'd be at four different players tied for the lynch. Those indecisive will enjoy such an outcome, since all candidates will have an equal chance of death. I do think we should have a lynch today, because with 30 players, we need to start narrowing down the possibilities.

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@Salmon Meerkat Okay, so assume 30 players and 6 elims. Lets pick a group of 3, of which we lynch 1. Or 4, since there are 4 people that have 2+ votes on them. First person has a 24/30 chance of being village. Assuming they are village, the second person has a 23/29 chance of being village. 3rd has 22/28 and 4th has 21/27. Thus in a group of 3 there is a 24*23*22/(30*29*28)=.50 chance of having no eliminators in that group. With 4 there is a 24*23*22*21/(30*29*28*27)=.39 chance off no elims being in the group. So everything being random, there is a 61% chance one of the people with 2+ votes on them being an eliminator. The chance of actually lynching an elim (again, everything being random) is 20%, as you said. But the chance of gaining useful discussion to analyze is significantly higher.

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Edits to Chameleon’s vote count are underlined

1 hour ago, Pearl Chameleon said:

Current vote count. I think I got it, but someone should probably double check it.

 

Swan(2): Tuatara, Gecko, Meerkat

Meerkat(0): Ostrich

Weasel(1): gecko, Ostrich

Penguin(1): Beagle Scorpion

mouse(1): Dingo

Dingo(2): Tuatara, Scorpion, Falcon, Chameleon

Elephant(1): Hyena

Axolotl(0): Dragonfly

Scorpion(2): Tuatara, Albatross

Octopus(0): kangoroo, octopus, Gecko

Crocodile(2): Gorilla, Elephant

Vulture(0): Scorpion

Gecko(3): Kangoroo, Dragonfly, Swan

Dragonfly(0): Swan

Heron(1) : Beagle

Chameleon(1) : Axolotl

 

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On 1/13/2018 at 5:11 PM, Sapphire Elephant said:

Well this is going to be fun. 30 players.

This is going to be a long game. I look forward to playing with everyone! I'll vote on Mauve Crocodile, who hasn't shown up yet.

 

23 hours ago, Turquoise Gorilla said:

Good thing the harambe meme is long dead or I would worry about a D1 lynch. I'll vote Mauve Crocodile for being number 13

 

40 minutes ago, Pearl Chameleon said:

Current vote count. I think I got it, but someone should probably double check it.

 

Swan(2): Tuatara, Gecko, Meerkat

Meerkat(0): Ostrich

Weasel(1): gecko, Ostrich

Penguin(0): Beagle

mouse(1): Dingo

Dingo(2): Tuatara, Scorpion, Falcon, Dingo

Elephant(1): Hyena

Axolotl(0): Dragonfly

Scorpion(2): Tuatara, Albatross

Octopus(0): kangoroo, octopus, Gecko

corocodile(1): gorilla

Vulture(1): Scorpion

Gecko(3): Kangoroo, Dragonfly, Swan

Dragonfly(0): Swan

Heron(1) : Beagle

Chameleon(1) : Axolotl

At least at one point I had two votes on me. 
 

I am sooooo confused by this game, I don't have a good way to remember who is who. 

Does anyone have any suggestions for remembering?

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