Anniversary Game 4/Anonymous Game 1: A Fresh Start

[Amethyst Scorpion]

9 hours ago, Mint Heron said:

It would help if you didn't actively accuse people you don't want to lynch >>

I usually accuse just about everyone. Doesn't always mean I want to lynch them. Sometimes I just want to read their reaction.

[Fuchsia Ostrich]

Dang, Albatross had me scared a bit there at the end. But with this we can definitively clear Heron. The game basically has to be 5:3 at this point, and we know 2 elims are Roo and Rodent (R&R). Why does it have to be 5:3? Because if it was 4:4 the game would be over, and if it was 6:2 the elims wouldn't be so cocky. With R&R accounted for, we just need one more. Probably the elims' worldhopper, if they have one.

11 hours ago, Amethyst Scorpion said:

Oh, and @Fuchsia Ostrich, I’m somewhat flattered, but no, I’m not Len.

Had you claimed Len I would have been very suspicious of you.  I'm Len. And since you helped us lynch Albatross, I've now got a bit of a village read on you.

11 hours ago, Mint Heron said:

Chinese New Year is coming up on the 16th, so I'll probably be less active around then (probably from the 15th to the 17th). Sorry guys, but you should be able to handle things if you all actually speak  I'll do a lot of things for SE, but skipping CNY ain't one of 'em.

I'm feeling 75% today (up from 50%), and I just gave my life in the MR, so this is now my only game. I also had to call in sick to work this evening with a hacking cough (I work foodservice), so I'll have time to do analysis if I survive this turnover.

[Fuchsia Ostrich]

Surprise! I'm on early.

There are currently 8 people alive. However, we can rule out Roo and Rodent (R&R to shorten things) because we already know they're elims. I'll also not analyze myself (obvious reasons), and I think it's safe to say that lynching Heron would be a stupid idea, so that narrows the field to 4: Zebra, Croc, Scorpion, Chamelion.

Last cycle, Scorpion, Chamelion, and Zebra all voted for Albatross. Croc voted on Kangaroo in order to not divide the lynch, but incidentally they ended up being the person dividing the lynch at the end of the cycle. @Mauve Crocodile, why didn't you move your vote over? I know in past cycles you weren't on near turnover, so did you just miss it because of that?

Crocodile has also claimed to have a protection role. If they're telling the truth, it gives us a chance to get a lead on the elims if they can block the elim kill.

Scorpion says this right after the elephant lynch:

Quote

Well, guess we get to wait and see how things sit after tonight.  It's not great odds, but I'm feeling a little more optimistic than I was last night.  Here's hoping the Elims revealed themselves way too early!

While I don't think it's likely that the elims revealed themselves too early--they must have had good reason to want to reveal--I think this post sounds village. It sounds like a villager who's been staring down the barrel of a gun too long and has finally been given a chance.

Here's a post of Kangaroo's that had white text in it.

Quote

Umm.  Mauve isn’t an Elim.   Nice try, though.  Good to know we’ve still got some mystery up our sleeves.

But really, Mauve is in fact an Elim, he’s just trolling you.  Face it, with no windrunner, you’ve already lost.

WHICH IS IT!?!?!?!  BWAHAHAHAHAH

Kangaroo is really going in with the IKYK at this point. But something we do have is that Toucan was attacked not long after this (the Night after the next), so that could have been to take the pressure off of Croc. However, note how the elims never seem to doubt Croc's claim as a Windrunner.

Albatross, right after the lynch on Axolotl:

Quote

I see, so that's how it is. Well played elims. That confusion at cycle end was really something. Especially elephant and kangaroo, didn't really see that coming. High levels of evil there.

Umm guys, if you're thinking I'm an elim then we've lost this game already. With the two vote removals, the lynch was guranteed even if I had stayed on the wagon. Toucan is going deep here, I believe. I think crocodile could be the fourth and Toucan is the fifth.

Albatross was obviously trying to distance themself from Elephant and Kangaroo, and they attempt to throw suspicion on village!Toucan and on Croc. The real question here: was Albatross planning on being caught (and so was trying to distance themself from Croc), or planning on surviving (and so trying to get Croc mislynched)?

In the aftermath of the Axolotl lynch, Chamelion claims Edgedancer. The elims apparently knew we had one, and so did Dragonfly, so I'm thinking Chamelion is village.

Dragonfly:

Quote

Oh, something that just occurred to me: Don’t trust Chameleon if Scorpion flips elim, because he’s been PMing me asking me to take votes off him, and defending him in general. So if Scorpion is lynched, and is elim, Chameleon should be next in line for the noose.

We've only got one elim not accounted for, so Scorpion/Chamelion is not an elim team. Village read on Chamelion for attempting to get votes away from Scorpion (and therefore likely onto Mouse).

Toucan:

Quote

"Some good points have been made against Scorpion, but there's one thing that stands against it, and suggests that he is either innocent, or a co-conspirator of Nolan. Remember that  yesterday there where three people up for the lynch. If we assume that only the mouse vote was a soothing done by the muyrderers, and that Scorpion is a murderer, then they, as far as they knew, effectively increased the chance of scorpion getting lynched by removing mouse from the vote, and that doesn't make sense to me. The only situation in which it would make sense is if they knew that Nolan would be using his powers t remove a vote from Scorpion."

"No, if there was a murderer among those up for the lynch yesterday, it has got to be mouse. Using a power to frame a villager is all well and good, but using it to save a team-mate is better. Of course, there's also the possibility of Nolan and Scorpion being co-conspirators, but int hat case we're probably done for anyway, as the murderers likely have enough vote manipulation to end us today."

Toucan is confirmed village, and by this logic they identified Mouse as an elim. That tells me that this analysis is on the right track, so it increases my trust of Scorpion.

By this point I think we've got enough evidence to call Chamelion and Scorpion village. That leaves only Croc and Zebra.

Dragonfly:

Quote

The driver of discussion I think might be Sympathiser is Zebra. We probably have a new Zebra, who can’t explain any of what old Zebra was doing, but old Zebra was fairly well trusted, without any dissent, which is raising a few red flags. Other than myself, I don’t think anyone’s questioned his villagerness all game, whereas I did have a few challenges to my alignment(Swan, Flamingo, Scorpion, and now you). An Elim!Zebra would be a great asset, leading the village in the wrong direction and subtly influencing everyone’s perspective. Also, the length of time he spent on the Beagle group, two of the three core members of which are now confirmed village, is suspicious to me. It seems like he was trying to divert lynch discussion for a few cycles, and given his sudden backing-out right before Beagle’s death, his actions read Elim to me, even if his tone and words do not.

I have no reads on Zebra, so @Mint Heron you might have to help me there. Is Zebra likely evil to you, or is it more likely Croc?

And I'm off to a lecture. I might or might not be on before turnover.

[Quartz Zebra]

I can confirm that I am not an eliminator. However, I am also aware that that is not an argument people can accept. If it helps, I have relatively little information and I've been basing all of my recent decisions on points and arguments on very recent posts. I apologize for not being able to give you any more reason to trust me than that.

[Sage Kangaroo]

56 minutes ago, Fuchsia Ostrich said:

Kangaroo is really going in with the IKYK at this point. But something we do have is that Toucan was attacked not long after this (the Night after the next), so that could have been to take the pressure off of Croc. However, note how the elims never seem to doubt Croc's claim as a Windrunner.

Note the Elims have no doubts about anything.  We had a Skybreaker, and we know the roles of everyone still living.  It's not like they're going to change.

57 minutes ago, Fuchsia Ostrich said:

I have no reads on Zebra, so @Mint Heron you might have to help me there. Is Zebra likely evil to you, or is it more likely Croc?

*Puts on Mint Heron mask*

Well, here's my very professional and scholarly sounding opinion:  Zebra is very likely village, at this point, because of some piece of infallible logic I have created within my mind, and in fact, so is Croc.  This is because you, Fuchsia, are in fact the last remaining hidden Elim.  I'll be lynching you next cycle.

[Fuchsia Ostrich]

1 hour ago, Sage Kangaroo said:

*Puts on Mint Heron mask*

Well, here's my very professional and scholarly sounding opinion:  Zebra is very likely village, at this point, because of some piece of infallible logic I have created within my mind, and in fact, so is Croc.  This is because you, Fuchsia, are in fact the last remaining hidden Elim.  I'll be lynching you next cycle.

How did you ever guess, Heron? 

1 hour ago, Sage Kangaroo said:

Note the Elims have no doubts about anything.  We had a Skybreaker, and we know the roles of everyone still living.  It's not like they're going to change.

Who could guarantee that you knew Croc's role at that time? (And don't answer "I could" ).

[Orlok Tsubodai]

AG4/AN1 - Day 11: Almost Whole

“Life before death.” Amethyst Scorpion inhaled, and stormlight flowed through him. He felt alive, energetic, better than he ever had. 

“Strength before weakness.” The spheres in the room all went dun as he started glowing. 

He stared in wonder at his hands. After all this time, he’d never expected - 

Well. He certainly hadn’t expected the Shardblade in his back. But then, he wasn’t exactly supposed to. 

“Can’t have someone developing powers now,” murmured a voice in the darkness. 

Amethyst Scorpion, near-Bondsmith, was left on his bedroom floor with burnt eyes and wisps of stormlight floating up around him. 

The threads of the tapestry were nearly woven. Hope sprang still, technically, but the tapestry was dark, now. It would take a miracle to save Rennan. 

Sherrah stared out at the fires, as she did every night. “Almighty, have mercy,” she whispered, imagining the prayer being whisked away by the wind. 

The fires drew closer. 

---

Amethyst Scorpion was killed. They were a Villager temporarily granted Bondsmith powers due to a mistake. 

Day 11 has begun. It will end in 42 hours, at 10pm GMT on the 16th February. 

PMs are open.

Player List
1. Amethyst Scorpion - Villager-turned-Bondsmith
2. Azure Mouse
3. Amber Vulture - Villager
4. Charcoal Hyena - Cannoc - Villager
5. Chartreuse Penguin - Villager
6. Coral Swan - Elyle - Village Lightweaver
7. Cream Tuatara - Villager
8. Emerald Falcon - Aldrick - Villager
9. Fuschia Ostrich
10. Indigo Weasel - Village Elsecaller
11. Ivory Dragonfly - Nolan - Village Bondsmith
12. Magenta Albatross - Sympathiser Windrunner
13. Mauve Crocodile
14. Melon Dingo - Quentisan - Village Edgedancer
15. Mint Heron
16. Onyx Flamingo - Squawk - Village Lightweaver
17. Opal Lion - Villager
18. Oxblood Beagle - Jai - Village Willshaper
19. Pearl Chameleon
20. Plum Rhinoceros - Villager
21. Quartz Zebra
22. Saffron Iguana - Emalia - Village Lightweaver
23. Sage Kangaroo
24. Salmon Meerkat - Village Bondsmith
25. Sapphire Elephant - Sympathiser Skybreaker
26. Scarlet Octopus - Village Edgedancer 
27. Sunburst Toucan - Vanna - Village Windrunner
28. Taupe Gecko - Villager
29. Turquoise Gorilla - Village Dustbringer
30. Violet Axolotl - Villager

[Mint Heron]

Quote

*Puts on Mint Heron mask*

Well, here's my very professional and scholarly sounding opinion:  Zebra is very likely village, at this point, because of some piece of infallible rather crem logic I have created within my mind, and in fact, so is Croc.  This is because you, Fuchsia, are in fact the last remaining hidden Elim.  I'll be lynching you next cycle.

http://www.17thshard.com/forum/topic/66156-ag4an1-night-10-the-gallows/?do=findComment&comment=674703

FTFW  Logic is actually my weakest subject; one time my logic prof told me that if I was up for the TA scheme, he wanted me to sit in the corner and leave the students alone so I wouldn't screw up their learning :S

[Fuchsia Ostrich]

And then there were seven. Three elims, four villagers. Two elims had been accounted for, but the third remained.

The Scorpion kill just gave me a thought: if we lynch one of the known elims today, tonight they'll have to kill another one of us and therefore narrow the field. It would basically guarantee that the game goes long, but I think it might give us the greatest chance of victory. We also would give up our chance at finding the Worldhopper, if they have one, but it might be worth it if it means we can win the game.

If we do go with this thought, we should probably lynch Mouse. The elims went to great lengths to keep them alive. If not, then we have to figure out who the last hidden elim is. I know it's not me and I doubt that it's Heron, and my analysis last cycle told me it probably wasn't Chamelion, so that leaves Croc and Zebra.

[Quartz Zebra]

I agree that dragging this process out would be the most beneficial. Not only wold our options be more limited, therefore raising our chances of guessing the right person, but it will give us (or more specifically me) more time to analyze and form the opinions on those who remain.

For now though, either one of the confirmed eliminators should do. I'd rather go for kangaroo since they give me the creeps, but I'll go for what the rest of you guys think in the end.

[Sage Kangaroo]

6 hours ago, Quartz Zebra said:

For now though, either one of the confirmed eliminators should do. I'd rather go for kangaroo since they give me the creeps, but I'll go for what the rest of you guys think in the end.

You kidding me bro.  I'm a chill dude.  I mean, I should scare you, but giving you the creeps is not on my agenda.

I don't wanna come off as creepy.  Maybe a high functioning sociopath, but that's cool, ya know?  I'm more the suave villain type, if you know what I mean.

Anyway, Heron.  IMO, he's giving off like totally wack levels of Elim vibeyness.  

8 hours ago, Mint Heron said:

http://www.17thshard.com/forum/topic/66156-ag4an1-night-10-the-gallows/?do=findComment&comment=674703

FTFW  Logic is actually my weakest subject; one time my logic prof told me that if I was up for the TA scheme, he wanted me to sit in the corner and leave the students alone so I wouldn't screw up their learning :S

Oy.  Stop messing with my impressions.  Ok that's really rather awful.  What kind of a professor is he lol

*puts on Zebra mask*  *paints stripes on*

Eh-Hem.  

You're giving me the creeps.

[Azure Mouse]

8 hours ago, Fuchsia Ostrich said:

And then there were seven. Three elims, four villagers. Two elims had been accounted for, but the third remained.

The Scorpion kill just gave me a thought: if we lynch one of the known elims today, tonight they'll have to kill another one of us and therefore narrow the field. It would basically guarantee that the game goes long, but I think it might give us the greatest chance of victory. We also would give up our chance at finding the Worldhopper, if they have one, but it might be worth it if it means we can win the game.

If we do go with this thought, we should probably lynch Mouse. The elims went to great lengths to keep them alive. If not, then we have to figure out who the last hidden elim is. I know it's not me and I doubt that it's Heron, and my analysis last cycle told me it probably wasn't Chamelion, so that leaves Croc and Zebra.

I love the assumptions in your post.

And there's some good ideas in there, although misguided.

But then, have you expected any of the things we've done?

Heron

[Mint Heron]

4 hours ago, Sage Kangaroo said:

Oy.  Stop messing with my impressions.  Ok that's really rather awful.  What kind of a professor is he lol

Sorry not sorry  If you want to copy me, you gotta do it right.

Edit: y u no color properly??? 

Edited February 15, 2018 by Mint Heron

[Fuchsia Ostrich]

I've been thinking: why do the elims seem so assured of victory? It might be because they have an Elsecaller. We know that Roo claimed to be an Elsecaller earlier, and if he is then it would take two lynches to kill him. If that's the case, and we decide to go for him last:

D11: 3 elims 4 village. 1 elim lynched

N11: 2 elims 4 village. 1 village dies

D12: 2 elims 3 village. 1 elim lynched

N12: 1 elim 3 village. 1 village dies

D13 1 elim Elsecaller, 2 village. Elsecaller loses life

N13 1 elim Elsecaller, 2 village. 1 village dies

D14: 1 elim Elsecaller, 1 village. No lynch because of the 2-vote minimum. Ah, storm it.

So it looks to me like if the elims have an Elsecaller, we're dead. But to make the game as close as possible, we want to lynch the Elsecaller last. For this I suggest that we lynch Mouse today, because the elims went to a great effort to save him, and that makes me think that they don't want to lose him as much as those they let us lynch.

 

Ostrich sat on the floor of his room cross-legged, meditating. He closed his eyes and relaxed, gently nudging his mind to let go of the past and present. After what felt like an eternity, he felt his soreness and pain slip away. It was still there, somewhere, but he did not feel it. Until he ended his meditation, it would not trouble him. He remained aware of the position of his limbs and the soft support of the floor beneath him, and he heard the slight rustle as he raised his hands from the carpet and placed his middle fingers on his temples.

Nothing. Where was it? Where was the inspiration he had received, the voice he had heard?

A knock came at the door. Ostrich groaned slightly as the sound broke his meditative focus and the soreness in his chest and legs rushed back into his consciousness. He raised himself to his feet, as his knees shook. He looked around his room quickly, to make sure it was presentable, and then opened the door.

The hallway was empty. Candle flames burned steady in their lamps, and there was no sound of footsteps. Ostrich shut the door, but as he did so he felt a hand on his shoulder. He spun around to face the intruder, but came face to face with an exact copy of himself. The same scar on the chin, the same straight hair pushed slightly to one side, the same blue-green eyes that betrayed a lack of sleep.

"Who are you?"

The newcomer ignored the question, "Sorry I missed you, I was dwelling on your past."

"Dwelling on my past?"

"Rather hard to dwell on anyone else's."

The real Ostrich was taken aback. "Exactly how were you dwelling on my past?"

"You really don't get it, do you?"

"You haven't necessarily done a very good job of explaining."

"Then I'll be clear. I'm you. Not physically, or anything like that. If anyone else were to walk in here right now they'd see you talking to nothing and would probably think you're mad. But to you I'm real."

Ostrich raised an eyebrow. The newcomer chuckled.

"It's a long explanation, too long for here. But I have something to show you, if you allow me."

[Azure Mouse]

1 hour ago, Fuchsia Ostrich said:

For this I suggest that we lynch Mouse today, because the elims went to a great effort to save him, and that makes me think that they don't want to lose him as much as those they let us lynch.

This is the funniest assumption of all.

[Fuchsia Ostrich]

The newcomer reached out and touched Ostrich's hand, and Ostrich suddenly found himself on the gallows as they hung Albatross. He turned his head away from the horrible sight.

"Why did you show me this? It was horrible enough to be a part of this killing once, without having to relive it."

But when Ostrich turned, his companion was gone.

"Hello? Where--?"

Something caused Ostrich's legs to stagger, and as he lurched the scenery changed slightly. This time, he was not at Albatross's execution, but Elephant's. Disgust and guilt coursed through his veins yet again.

It happened again, but this time he was in his room at night. The window was open, and on the night air rose a chilling scream from a different part of the town.

Then he was in the town square, arguing for the killing of Scorpion, an innocent.

Then he was witnessing an execution of an innocent, brought about by an angry mob.

Death. Fear. Disgust. Murder. Guilt. Terror. Suspicion. In waves they came upon him.

He came to his senses flat on his back on the familiar floor of his room. Standing over him was the other Ostrich.

"It does strange things to a man when he has to kill another man," said the newcomer.

Ostrich hauled his torso upright and reached out to touch his double, but his hand passed right through it. "I could touch you before, but now I can't."

"You never touched me before, Ostrich. You can't, because I don't exist."

"But I'm talking to you right now!"

"A lot of people talk to things that don't exist. It's not uncommon, for someone who's gone through the kind of stress you have."

"I'm not crazy!"

"And as a part of you I say that you are. What kind of man spends his days shut up in his room, talking to himself, hearing sounds that aren't there, and thinking that he is in other places?"

The second Ostrich disappeared, and Ostrich collapsed back onto the floor.

"But don't worry," a disembodied voice said, "a lot of the best people are a bit mad."

[Mint Heron]

 

3 hours ago, Fuchsia Ostrich said:

I've been thinking: why do the elims seem so assured of victory? It might be because they have an Elsecaller. We know that Roo claimed to be an Elsecaller earlier, and if he is then it would take two lynches to kill him. If that's the case, and we decide to go for him last:

[snip]

So it looks to me like if the elims have an Elsecaller, we're dead. But to make the game as close as possible, we want to lynch the Elsecaller last. For this I suggest that we lynch Mouse today, because the elims went to a great effort to save him, and that makes me think that they don't want to lose him as much as those they let us lynch.

 

Laying out all of the assumptions made here:

[ASSUMPTION 1]: The way the Sympathisers act reflects how confident they are in their victory.
[COROLLARY 1a]: Because the known Sympathisers are trolling now, they think they will win.

[ASSUMPTION 2]: The Sympathisers are confident because of their roles, not because they think we can't find the last Sympathiser.

[ASSUMPTION 3]: The Sympathisers will go to more effort to save important roles from dying.
[COROLLARY 3a]: M'Hael has an important role.
[COROLLARY 3b]: M'Hael was in risk of dying and therefore not an Elsecaller.
[COROLLARY 3c]: The Sympathisers didn't care about Albatross and Elephant.

Are you happy now, M'Hael? I was going to spend today relaxing.

[Azure Mouse]

32 minutes ago, Mint Heron said:

Laying out all of the assumptions made here:

[ASSUMPTION 1]: The way the Sympathisers act reflects how confident they are in their victory.
[COROLLARY 1a]: Because the known Sympathisers are trolling now, they think they will win.

[ASSUMPTION 2]: The Sympathisers are confident because of their roles, not because they think we can't find the last Sympathiser.

[ASSUMPTION 3]: The Sympathisers will go to more effort to save important roles from dying.
[COROLLARY 3a]: M'Hael has an important role.
[COROLLARY 3b]: M'Hael was in risk of dying and therefore not an Elsecaller.
[COROLLARY 3c]: The Sympathisers didn't care about Albatross and Elephant.

Are you happy now, M'Hael? I was going to spend today relaxing.

Yes, very happy. Though not that you're not relaxing on my account.

I understand why the assumptions were made. And maybe they're even reasonable assumptions. Assumption 3 still amuses me though.

 

[Mint Heron]

@Orlok Tsubodai, will the game be called if it is impossible for a side to meet their win conditions, even if the other side has not already won yet?

Edited in to avoid double-posting:

21 hours ago, Fuchsia Ostrich said:

And then there were seven. Three elims, four villagers. Two elims had been accounted for, but the third remained.

The Scorpion kill just gave me a thought: if we lynch one of the known elims today, tonight they'll have to kill another one of us and therefore narrow the field. It would basically guarantee that the game goes long, but I think it might give us the greatest chance of victory. We also would give up our chance at finding the Worldhopper, if they have one, but it might be worth it if it means we can win the game.

If we do go with this thought, we should probably lynch Mouse. The elims went to great lengths to keep them alive. If not, then we have to figure out who the last hidden elim is. I know it's not me and I doubt that it's Heron, and my analysis last cycle told me it probably wasn't Chamelion, so that leaves Croc and Zebra.

Ostrich, mind letting us see what your analysis of Chameleon said? When I was rereading the thread, I noticed a post from Chameleon on Day Seven, where he said that he did not want to lynch Mouse. In fact, he equated a possible elim!Mouse lynch on Day Eight with the Weasel lynches on Days Five and Six, which is rather strange reasoning, considering that one, Mouse did not get lynched and survived, and two, spending two lynches to kill a Sympathiser is much better than spending two lynches killing an inactive villager. Another thing I noticed is that in his read lists, Mouse said he had a village read on Chameleon, while every other known elim was left off of his readlists until later. I'm not sure if this would be a point for or against Chameleon, just that it's worth noting.

Edited February 16, 2018 by Mint Heron

[Fuchsia Ostrich]

2 hours ago, Mint Heron said:

@Orlok Tsubodai, will the game be called if it is impossible for a side to meet their win conditions, even if the other side has not already won yet?

Edited in to avoid double-posting:

Ostrich, mind letting us see what your analysis of Chameleon said? When I was rereading the thread, I noticed a post from Chameleon on Day Seven, where he said that he did not want to lynch Mouse. In fact, he equated a possible elim!Mouse lynch on Day Eight with the Weasel lynches on Days Five and Six, which is rather strange reasoning, considering that one, Mouse did not get lynched and survived, and two, spending two lynches to kill a Sympathiser is much better than spending two lynches killing an inactive villager. Another thing I noticed is that in his read lists, Mouse said he had a village read on Chameleon, while every other known elim was left off of his readlists until later. I'm not sure if this would be a point for or against Chameleon, just that it's worth noting.

Ostrich looked around his room as the voice spoke to him. Was it just another hallucination of a frenzied mind? But he couldn't chance it; there was too high of a chance that this one was real. He pulled out a scrap of paper from a notebook and started scribbling:

 

I did it in this post here last cycle.

1. Chamelion claims Edgedancer. (Wait, aren't all of the Edgedancers dead? Will look into this. Maybe it was a transcription error.)

2. Chamelion pushes Dragonfly to get votes off of village!Scorp. Alternate lynch is elim!Mouse, so that's an indirect move against Mouse.

Will edit in the results of the Edgedancer inspection.

Edit: OK, found my problem. They claimed Elsecaller, not Edgedancer. We've already got a claim of Elsecaller from Roo, and 2 Edgedancers on the elim team doesn't seem likely, so that's why I was trusting of that claim. 

But as a corollary to that, I just realized that the elims have to leave Chamelion alive until the last as well, or else they start losing their advantage and we can gang up on Roo twice instead of once. So it's a very interesting battle we're locked in.

Edited February 16, 2018 by Fuchsia Ostrich

[Mint Heron]

@Mauve Crocodile, I have two questions for you.

1. While you haven't been posting a lot, it seems like you check in multiple times a Cycle based off of your posting patterns. During Day Ten, after you stated the urgency of not splitting the vote, why didn't you respond to the swing onto the Albatross lynch?

2. You've claimed to be a Windrunner. Can you list out who you've protected, starting from the beginning of the game?

Crocodile, as incentive for you to answer, I'm going to leave my vote on you.

1 hour ago, Fuchsia Ostrich said:

*rummages pockets for spare analysis*

I did it in this post here last cycle.

1. Chamelion claims Edgedancer. (Wait, aren't all of the Edgedancers dead? Will look into this. Maybe it was a transcription error.)

2. Chamelion pushes Dragonfly to get votes off of village!Scorp. Alternate lynch is elim!Mouse, so that's an indirect move against Mouse.

Will edit in the results of the Edgedancer inspection.

Point two seems pretty convincing. Not much reason for a Sympathiser to try to get votes onto a player if the other teammates seem to be doing their best to keep him alive.

Moving onto something completely unrelated, I don't agree that waiting for the Sympathisers to make their kills will give us substantially more information. For one thing, there are three of them left, and as of now there are two trusted players who seem to be doing the bulk of the discussion (Ostrich and I). While we go through the easy lynches, the Sympathisers could kill us without narrowing down the pool of suspicious players down at all. To be frank, I'm not sure that if that happened, the village would actually do anything. I think it'll be more useful to pump out as much discussion as we can today, because all we have to do to win this game is catch the last Sympathiser (and pray that no vote shenanigans or Mistborn kills happen). We can't do that if we decide early on that we're sticking to a Mouse or Kangaroo lynch. Now, if we don't get enough discussion to feel confident about an alternate lynch, we can always fall back on a Mouse or Kangaroo lynch, but we lose a lot of potential information if we decide at the beginning to have a Mouse or Kangaroo lynch.

Spoiler

via Imgflip Meme Generator

Editing this in, so I don't double-post:

via Imgflip Meme Generator

You too, Sympathisers  Tell you what, if you decide that Odium is too harsh of a taskmaster, you can always join the village. We have free food and everything. What more could you want?

Edited February 16, 2018 by Mint Heron

[Sage Kangaroo]

6 hours ago, Fuchsia Ostrich said:

Edit: OK, found my problem. They claimed Elsecaller, not Edgedancer. We've already got a claim of Elsecaller from Roo, and 2 Edgedancers on the elim team doesn't seem likely, so that's why I was trusting of that claim. 

6 hours ago, Fuchsia Ostrich said:

But as a corollary to that, I just realized that the elims have to leave Chamelion alive until the last as well, or else they start losing their advantage and we can gang up on Roo twice instead of once. So it's a very interesting battle we're locked in.

No.

You may refer to me as Sage.  Never refer to me as Roo again.

Please.

 

[Fuchsia Ostrich]

@Mint Heron If we go for the undercover elims, the outed elims can attempt to deflect the vote away from them without fear. But if we go for Mouse, then the undercover elim is forced to go along with it or risk detection. Today we can either take a basically-guaranteed lynch on Mouse, or attempt to assemble a vote pile on a suspect for being undercover that is large enough to deter the elims from attempting to counter it. The logistics make killing Mouse sound pretty good to me right now, and they can kill only one of us tonight (if they even decide to go for us), so that leaves one of us alive until tomorrow.

I'll be on and off throughout the time period until turnover, and so if Mouse doesn't end up being our lynch target then I'll move my vote to where it's needed.

[Quartz Zebra]

Okay, it looks like the vote is moving away from my initial Kangaroo and more towards Mouse, so I'll move my vote like so.

On to the next item on the docket, the order of who it would be best to vote for. There are 7 players, 2 guaranteed elims, leaving 5 other players. Of those players, 1 is an elim. that leaves us a 1/5 chance of finding them just by random chance. However, if we wait, then the elims will kill off one village per turn, we kill the two we know of, leaving us with 3 players left in two turns. One is still an eliminator, and I like the odds of 1/3 a lot better than 1/5. Statistically, it makes sense for us to wait.

However, I also understand that in three turns, discussion is going to be down since the elims will probably try to kill those who contribute more to the discussion. But the thing is, if we get it down to three people, it will be a much simpler game. Right now, there are a lot of moving parts and it is difficult to analyze too many people at once. Once the three are the only ones left, we can compile analysis on the others much more effectively since there is only a need to look at three people instead of 5.

Don't get me wrong, Analysis at this point is going to be what helps the village win. I'd rather have more opinions than none, but the longer we have to contemplate these things, the better.

[Fuchsia Ostrich]

@Mint Heron @Mauve Crocodile @Pearl Chameleon There's 4 and a half hours left in the cycle and we only have 2 votes down on Mouse, and the elims have 2 votes down on Heron.

5 hours ago, Sage Kangaroo said:

No.

You may refer to me as Sage.  Never refer to me as Roo again.

Please.

 

But what if I feel like being Roo-d?