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If Aspen were the mistborn, and HH were the assassin, who else is the remaining elim?

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In the interests of actually utilizing the full time, I'll sit down to think about this more shortly.

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Well, crap. I've been bothering Joe again, and apparently the Assassin kill and the Elim kill were mutually exclusive. I've been using it in my head to justify why I think there are 2 elims left, but because they can't happen in the same night, that means we really could have 3 elims left. I still find it more likely that there are 2 elims for balancing reasons, but the situation that one of our little circle of trusted villagers could be an elim is a little scary. (I was basically thinking that the lack of an elim kill on top of the assassin one meant that there was one inactive elim). Anybody want to do the math on the whole 50-50 thing, because honestly I don't have the brains for it right now, especially when I'm trying to do(and ultimately ignoring) my homework. Might be helpful for figuring out what our chances at winning this thing are. 

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The best outcome is this: two eliminators and three villagers.

The worst outcome is this: two eliminators, the Mistborn (two lives), and one villager.

The most likely outcome is this: two eliminators, the Mistborn (one life), and three villagers.

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18 hours ago, Drake Marshall said:

If Aspen were the mistborn, and HH were the assassin, who else is the remaining elim?

Options:

Shanerockes, Drake Marshall, Steeldancer, Straw, and myself.

Shanerockes is brand new, low activity, and hasn't contributed much to the overall game. Pretty much a total unknown, which is often our default assumption. However, shane was up for a lynch at one point D3, and so we can look at the overall response to that to see possible interactions instead of just making assumptions.

The day starts with an early train forming on HH, followed by a spat between DA and Drake that took up a lot of attention (but not a lot of votes). Then, with less than 12 hours remaining in the cycle, Araris votes on shane. Darkness does a little while after, and then Drake tried to push on HH again. HH votes on shane again, citing self-preservation.

Then I posted my suspicion of HH being an Eliminator, voting Araris. The lynch turned away from HH shortly after. But in that brief in-between space, shane came and posted essentially a farewell set of posts, claiming Smoker and claiming that he didn't know any way to defend himself and was probably going to get lynched. That reads sincere to me - like a new player who's really lost and doesn't know what's going on. Read: newbie - could go either way but I lean village

Drake Marshall is part of the village trust group. He was the first player to point us onto the Mistborn, and has been instrumental in our search since then. He's also pivoting away from the Mistborn now that we have (almost certainly) found who it is and pointing us towards the Eliminators. Which means he's either a very good Elim or honestly village. On it's own, his attempt to divert the lynch to me and then to question our assumptions would put me on edge. When taken into account with the whole of his play so far, though, it sounds a lot like a paranoid villager worried that they had made a mistake and were about to lose because of it - a village attitude if I ever saw one. Read: very village

I'm out of time for analysis now, so I'll come back to the other two sometime between now and the end of the cycle, hopefully. If I don't make it back before then, I'll do it during the night.

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Woah, did not expect this to happen at all. I didn't know that y'all were suspicious of me. 

From the looks of things, it seems like today's lynch is very critical, and all eyes are pointed towards me. I should've looked at this sooner, because I feel like it might be a little late to prove my innocence, but I'm villager. If you kill me off then that's one of us down and the Elims and Mistborn are more likely to kill off everyone else. 

I also do realize that I did post really late last time, as well right now, I'm still trying to figure all of this out. But if you must kill me so be it, I just hope that y'all can win in the end.

My vote is on HH. They were one of the first to vote for me, and they’ve been quiet the rest of the day. I feel like they’re hiding something

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45 minutes left. Place your bets now everyone, and make peace with your gods. You have Failed. 

7 minutes left. (This lynch will disappoint you.)

Edited by A Joe in the Bush
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Shane claimed smoker? Interesting.

This whole retired hazekiller business kind of muddies the waters, because it's very difficult to know if the details about it are accurate. Regardless, the information from Straw, combined with the information about Shane claiming smoker, changes some things.

The issue I've been thinking about is this: balance-wise, there has to be more than one elim left. Take a look at the player list, though:

  1. Steeldancer- Vote placement on Ornstein means he's probably not elim, Straw's ability implies not mistborn.
  2. Straw- Retired hazekiller story is backed up by other people... Possibly a lie but I'll discuss that later in this post.
  3. Seonid- Isn't an elim given Ornstein lynch... And I have been told @Straw's story clears Seonid of being mistborn. Well, I hope you know what you're talking about.
  4. Hemalurgic Headshot- No metals burned. He is either the mistborn or the assassin.
  5. Drake Marshall- Village seeker 2.
  6. shanerockes- Claimed smoker. If HH is elim, shane can't be, because HH's vote at the time it was cast seriously put shane in danger of being lynched. Mistborn's rioting implies shane isn't mistborn, but I'll discuss that later in this post.
  7. Aspen- Low activity, but otherwise a prime suspect for being mistborn or eliminator.

There are a few things that need to be discussed:

First, Straw's story about the hazekiller thing. The only reasonable possibilities are that Straw is that telling the truth about this, or that Straw, Steel, and Seonid are all eliminators. If the former, that's quite convenient. If the latter, then the evil roles already outnumber the village, and a village win is pretty unlikely.

Second, the mistborn vote manipulation. Why do you suppose the mistborn has been rioting Elend's vote? It's common knowledge that the mistborn is the only one that can control Elend's vote, so this is kind of a vehichle to trick people. I don't really think the placement of Elend's vote can actually be used as a reliable source of information at this point. In the case of Elend's vote on shane, there are really two possibilities: 1. The mistborn was online at the time shane was leading the lynch, and threw their vote on shane. Possibly because they were somebody else in the running for the lynch, or because they wanted to frame somebody else in the running for the lynch. Or 2. Shane is the mistborn, and once they saw that they weren't in the running for getting lynched, they rioted Elend's vote onto themselves to get cleared. Yes, that's tinfoil. Yes, I think we need to consider every possibility at this point. If there's a time to consider every outlandish possibility, it's now, when our guesses are actually informed... Not at the beginning of the game as is traditional.

So really, we need to answer. Who are the eliminators?? I reckon there have to be two of 'em here. So... Lets start by assuming that Straw is telling the truth about the hazekiller thing, and work from there.


^^The stuff above this point isn't actually important because I realized something.

That leaves HH, shane, and aspen as the only 3 suspects. Among those 3, there have to be 2 elims and 1 mistborn, unless Straw is lying, or somebody was bussing Ornstein hard. So... Basically, two of those people have to be team mates.

HH has been one of the instrumental voters on both shane and aspen. Ergo, he really, really probably isn't on the same team as either of those people.

I wish I had seen that earlier. Now that I do, it seems pretty simple.

HH has to be the mistborn.

I knew I had a bad feeling about this for a reason... I was wrong about it being Seonid though.

@Seonid @Straw @Steeldancer @shanerockes

Probably too late but I'll mention you folks.

Edited by Drake Marshall
mentioning people
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That is time, give me a minute to triple check the votes.

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Night 4: Everyone Start Panicking.

Aspen whistled to herself merrily as she cooked herself a large breakfast. It was going to be a beautiful day, and she was certain it would also be a productive day. They had narrowed down who the Mistborn was, Marv, obviously. All they had to do was kill him today and then they could kill the infiltrators, and then the armies, and then someone else probably. She wasn’t picky. She poured herself some milk, put her eggs and toast on her plate, and sat down to eat. It was quite tasty, and she made sure to enjoy it. She wanted everything about this day to be perfect.

Her breakfast finished, she headed out into the town. She was supposed to be at the Conference 2 hours ago, but they could lynch Marv without her. She needed some new plants for her garden. The prices would be high of course, but plants were worth any cost. If one couldn’t maintain a garden during a war, what could they do at all?

Another 2 hours later, she entered her home, whistling a new tune to herself as she dumped the bags of seeds on the counter. She checked the clock and winced. 4 hours late, and another hour to get ready and get there would make 5. Ah well, there wasn’t a death penalty for being late.

 


“Then we are agreed, we will kill Aspen because she is the Mistborn, and because she is not here to defend herself.”

Aspen froze in the doorway. “Wait what?”

The others in there room all turned to her. “Ah! Speak of the Devil!” Count Sen smiled at her. Then frowned, “Wait, does that saying make sense here?”

“I’m not the Mistborn! Marv is!”

Count Conrad raised an eyebrow as Marv sputtered. “I am quite certain you are wrong Aspen.”

Marv finished sputtering. “Thank you.”

“He’s obviously an Infiltrator.”

“Gah! I am a villager!”

“Lies and Slander!”

“I’m also a villager!”

“More Lies”!

“Shut up Marv!”

“You shut up Conrad!”

“But you’re conrad. . .”

“I thought I was Jax?”

“Wait, what?”

Everyone paused, including you, and worked their way through the conversation, then decided to ignore it and just Skip to killing Aspen and finding out she was just a village Smoker.


Aspen was a Village Smoker 1!

Votes:

Aspen(4): Seonid, Straw, Steeldancer, HH
HH(3): Aspen, Drake marshall, Elend Venture

 

The Day will end in:

bla_1515481200.png

 

Player List:

  1. Steeldancer   -   A dancer who wears steel toed boots.

  2. Straw   -   Adfus Syponr, A man who believes in Luck and Chance.

  3. Seonid   -   Count Sen Conrad the III, a man unrelated to something or other.

  4. Hemalurgic Headshot   -   Marv, Nothing unusual about him.

  5. Drake Marshall   -   Jay, Luthadel’s illiterate Librarian

  6. shanerockes   -   Phillip, the first of his line

Edited by A Joe in the Bush
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How is that possible!?

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1 minute ago, Seonid said:

How is that possible!?

I have no clue but i think we all screwed up somewhere. 

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Did I mention that I have a bad feeling about this? :P

That aside, if Aspen wasn't even an eliminator... The first conclusion that comes to mind is that the eliminators have a very small team to compensate for a powerful secret role.

Edited by Drake Marshall
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@Drake Marshall, that's exactly the sort of thing I could see Joe doing. It means we could be in a very great deal of trouble, however. One of shanerockes and HH is an eliminator, the other is the mistborn. They know which is which now, as well. If there's only one Elim left, they could very well die tonight. Given that, I think my role is more useful revealed than it is hidden.

My role might be able to help us here. I'm a Lurcher 1, and thanks to Straw's generosity, I am now a Lurcher 2 as well. I can't be killed by a night kill, and -  as of yesterday - I can protect one other player as well. My plan had been to protect Straw, as he requested, and I was hoping to draw a kill onto me so it could get blocked. But if there is only one Elim left, I can try to protect them. If we can figure out which one of our two suspects is the Elim, I can block the Mistborn's kill. Since the Mistborn and Elim kills are differentiated in the writeup, we'll know for sure which one I blocked in the morning.

@Straw @Steeldancer, your thoughts on this?

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Well crap. Seriously, crap. 

Use your role seonid. Let's do this. 

I'm really concerned about the secret role. If it's it's hemalurgic thing from the recently dead like I suspect, we need to lynch them dead and gone. Preferably after killing the mistborn. GAH. 

My concern is that if the elim is a hemalurgist, they're probably a Coinshot 2. DAMNATION ALIVE I WAS SO SURE SHE WAS MISTBORN. 

@Seonid we will need to coordinate our abilities. Also, who have you been using your ability on every other night? 

Edited by Steeldancer
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Ok, I've gone through all the possible situations, and I think the best one is if Seonid protects Shane, I soothe HH, and Drake seeks HH. This should work despite the fact that I'm posting it in the thread. This will eliminate the possibility that Seonid and I use our abilities on the same person, which would prevent both kills. Shane, if you're the mistborn, or whatever, please only use your ability to cloud on yourself if you at all care about finding the mistborn and elims. 

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@Steeldancer I’ll use the last charge of my power on Drake.

EDIT: @Seonid, I’m fine with that.

Edited by Straw
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32 minutes ago, Steeldancer said:

Ok, I've gone through all the possible situations, and I think the best one is if Seonid protects Shane, I soothe HH, and Drake seeks HH. This should work despite the fact that I'm posting it in the thread. This will eliminate the possibility that Seonid and I use our abilities on the same person, which would prevent both kills. Shane, if you're the mistborn, or whatever, please only use your ability to cloud on yourself if you at all care about finding the mistborn and elims. 

Wait, I see a problem with your plan. If you soothe me, that means I can't perform an action, rendering Drake's seek useless.

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4 minutes ago, Hemalurgic Headshot said:

Wait, I see a problem with your plan. If you soothe me, that means I can't perform an action, rendering Drake's seek useless.

Unless I were to cancel out his action. But at the current moment I see no use in doing that. I also believe that Steel's plan is not the best plan. I am still trying to figure out what would be best.

 

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5 hours ago, Seonid said:

@Drake Marshall, that's exactly the sort of thing I could see Joe doing. It means we could be in a very great deal of trouble, however. One of shanerockes and HH is an eliminator, the other is the mistborn. They know which is which now, as well. If there's only one Elim left, they could very well die tonight. Given that, I think my role is more useful revealed than it is hidden.

My role might be able to help us here. I'm a Lurcher 1, and thanks to Straw's generosity, I am now a Lurcher 2 as well. I can't be killed by a night kill, and -  as of yesterday - I can protect one other player as well. My plan had been to protect Straw, as he requested, and I was hoping to draw a kill onto me so it could get blocked. But if there is only one Elim left, I can try to protect them. If we can figure out which one of our two suspects is the Elim, I can block the Mistborn's kill. Since the Mistborn and Elim kills are differentiated in the writeup, we'll know for sure which one I blocked in the morning.

@Straw @Steeldancer, your thoughts on this?

Hmmmm the outline of this plan is good. The fact that we have both soothing and protection capability is reassuring.

One thing I will bring up. I haven't seen evidence that this secret role has vote manipulation powers. Which kind of makes me think that they may have an extra life.

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The reason I want Drake to seek HH is because I'm a little paranoid that Seonid might be an elim. 2 elims just... feels wrong, and I've done analysis, and the only thing that clears Seonid is the Ornstein lynch, which, in my opinion, doesn't clear him at all. He's definitely not the mistborn, but if we've misjudged seonid, I'm worried this game will swing to the elims. Like I said, I was going through all the possible situations. 

And... I just realized there's there's huge flaw in my plan. The mistborn, if it is Shane, would kill HH, and if Seonid isn't an elim, the game would be over. This is in a case where HH doesn't have a saving ability. I don't want a possibility of an endgame scenario. So, ill go back to the drawing board. Seonid, if you could tell us what you've been using your ability for before this cycle, that would help a ton. 

Edited by Steeldancer
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1 hour ago, Steeldancer said:

The reason I want Drake to seek HH is because I'm a little paranoid that Seonid might be an elim. 2 elims just... feels wrong, and I've done analysis, and the only thing that clears Seonid is the Ornstein lynch, which, in my opinion, doesn't clear him at all. He's definitely not the mistborn, but if we've misjudged seonid, I'm worried this game will swing to the elims. Like I said, I was going through all the possible situations. 

And... I just realized there's there's huge flaw in my plan. The mistborn, if it is Shane, would kill HH, and if Seonid isn't an elim, the game would be over. This is in a case where HH doesn't have a saving ability. I don't want a possibility of an endgame scenario. So, ill go back to the drawing board. Seonid, if you could tell us what you've been using your ability for before this cycle, that would help a ton. 

I was going to point out that flaw, but I had to get breakfast ready for my kids.

I didn't have an ability to actively use before this cycle. I was a lurcher 1 - a passive ability that just protects myself. Straw gave me lurcher 2, which can protect others.

As far as tonight goes, we should actively try to block the mistborn's kill. I'm divided on whether we ought to try and block the Elim kill - it seems to me that it is most likely to be targeted at the Mistborn and it would be nice to get that combination of confirming which is which and taking the mistborn down a life. If we don't come up with a better idea by the end of the night, I'll just protect whichever of the two suspects I think is most likely to be the Elim.

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6 minutes ago, Seonid said:

I was going to point out that flaw, but I had to get breakfast ready for my kids.

I didn't have an ability to actively use before this cycle. I was a lurcher 1 - a passive ability that just protects myself. Straw gave me lurcher 2, which can protect others.

As far as tonight goes, we should actively try to block the mistborn's kill. I'm divided on whether we ought to try and block the Elim kill - it seems to me that it is most likely to be targeted at the Mistborn and it would be nice to get that combination of confirming which is which and taking the mistborn down a life. If we don't come up with a better idea by the end of the night, I'll just protect whichever of the two suspects I think is most likely to be the Elim.

Oh, I got my allomantic abilities confused. Sorry. Doesn't clear you entirely, but it does help me feel a little better. I'll just try to avoid soothing the same person you protect. 

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6 minutes ago, Steeldancer said:

Oh, I got my allomantic abilities confused. Sorry. Doesn't clear you entirely, but it does help me feel a little better. I'll just try to avoid soothing the same person you protect. 

At the moment, I think I'm going to protect HH. But I'm not sure anymore.

Last night I was certain that HH was the elim and aspen was the mistborn. The vote manipulation onto Shane D3 seemed to be a decent reason against him being the mistborn. And at the time it happened, HH was the alternate lynch target. Shane also voted HH. Seems a clear case of evidence pointing one way.

But, on the other hand, that's a perfect cover. And if we had lynched shane and he had survived, with Elend Venture's vote on him, we'd have written him off as a normal Thug 2. So there's a decent explanation for the rioted vote if shane is the mistborn. Essentially the equivalent of a WGG.

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