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Long Game 3: Blackwater Village


Peng the Just

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I meant that more as in if no one speaks up against a lynch target. The Spiked will always want to defend themselves from getting lynched, so they will try to deflect votes onto other people.

 

That is why bandwagoning is dangerous. If the Spiked don't think that they'd be able to save one of their own, then they won't speak up and just go with the group. 

 

Now, they might try to use this against us and not defend themselves if one of them comes under the chopping block, but to do so would mean that they have to gamble on us actually changing our votes and that might not happen. 

 

I've already clarified that part, Gamut. To Chid, of all people, someone who seems to think you need defending. Perhaps you were not within hearing range at the time, though that seems a bit, as Vizinni would say, 'inconceivable.' 

 

I suppose it is natural for you to suspect me after I share my suspicions of you, but I can guarantee that I have only the Village's interests at heart. The only reason you have that quote to try to use against me is because I worked tirelessly to reproduce that manifesto multiple times and post it all through out the town and I did this before the end of the first night. I did so, just in case I might have been targeted during that night. 

 

In other words, I have done my best to help the Blackwater (even during my RP), while your course would lead us to being at the same point we are now, but down another death or two. 

 

 

 

 

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Guys, we still have about 18 hours left, if my count is right and the last thing I want is a bandwagon. 

 

While Erendi is a safe vote, considering I doubt we're going to see him again (though I want to give him as much time as possible to speak up), we need as much discussion as possible. I will switch my vote the second it looks like everyone is going to just pile onto Erendi. 

 

We need to hear more about how everyone is thinking and such. 

 

I will say this, we're going to want at least a 2 vote difference between votes in the end so the vote-changing roles can't affect it too much (the Spiked would need all three of them or duplicates). 

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Meta, you forgot to explain why you are suspicious as well.  Let me paraphrase your actions in a way that makes them all seem evil.

 

"Guys, even though we know nothing, we need to start a discussion that involves voting for people to die.  We can't just call people out, we actually have to vote against them."  

 

Gamut was saying we should still call people out, just not vote.  You said that made him bad.  I disagreed.  I said so.  And that makes me bad, I guess.

If you start voting, it can "accidentally" snowball into someone getting lynched.  With most people just arguing and throwing out random names, all it takes is a couple extra votes and some emotional allomancy for someone innocent to get hurt.  That's why I stood against you.  You were calling out Gamut when he was correct.  Also, nobody besides Gamut was trying to stop you.  

 

Look what's happening.  It's already looking like Erendi is going to get killed, but there's still time for you to seem like the hero.  "Wait, stop! I totally didn't mean for this to happen!"

You're pretty experienced at this game.  

 

And now that you have been so righteous this whole game, anyone who tries to speak out against you is automatically a suspect.  

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Mabi was disappointed that her attempts to steer the conversation concerning this horrible task in a direction was interpreted as suspicious behavior.  While she understood that she was steering suspicion away from herself in her advice, she understood that perhaps it would only draw suspicion towards herself by doing so.

 

Mabi turned towards Meta addressing him, "Meta first off I understand why you have suspicions about me and the other guards.  Part of the reason why I asked Gamut to compile the list was to see if that information would assist us in narrowing down potential suspects.  I am not so naive that I do not suspect that there maybe men among that list that may have betrayed Cyrus.  But we must begin somewhere."

 

"I do not know if my words will sway people for or against voting for me at the moment, but as Meta mentions we must continue our dialogue about this horrible decision.  I do not know for whom I will vote for at this point in time.  As we still need more information to better ascertain for whom we vote.  In the meanwhile though, I shall seek to enjoy life, whether or not I am lynched or the foul people who killed Cyrus kill me."

 

"Meta my dear, if I survive today do you mind if I stay the night with you?  Perhaps we can assuage each other's fears of action or inaction."

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Clan saw Alon sitting to the side. "Well e took is time but I spose e asn't run off then. Not enuff reason to kill im then."

 

"E's still suspicious though. Up all nigh' readin at his age? 'taint natural."

 

I have retracted my vote for Alon. I won't vote for anyone new for now, I should be awake again before the day finishes and I will vote then on who I think is the most suspicious. Personally I don't think Meta is spiked, there is potential reason to be suspicious of him sure, but what he has said so far makes him seem more likely to be a villager than a spiked to me. Regardless though we do need to avoid herd behaviour, it makes it too easy for a spiked to direct the vote. It doesn't have to be a spiked directing us either, we could simply be following a villager who made a mistake, the end result would be the same.

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  • Mabi - (3) -  Clan, Asp, Xaneth
  • Erendi - (2) - Meta, Bartson
  • Forage - (1) - Wark
  • Clan - (1) - Maw 
  • No Kill - (3) - Raubber, Alon, Joe

         

Gamut went and quickly tacked up a list of the current vote tally. (By my count, let me know if you notice an error. I just looked at what's in Red, not counting the retracted votes up).

"So that's yer plan, Meta? Have Erendi get strung up? In my experience, it's a lot harder to get rid of votes than to cast them. Some people might not have time to change their votes before the end of the day, and we'll have hung a random villager. I hope he's Spiked, but as of right now, that's just a guess. I knew a guy who liked to Gamble once. He put all of his money into the wrong people and got everybody killed. I won't make that mistake."

OOC: Because it will be a lot easier to discuss. :P

I understand you saying we need to cast suspicions to get discussion flowing, to find discrepancies and all that. But I wanted to avoid that so Bandwagoning doesn't happen, which has already started with Erendi. You claim you can and will change your vote before it "gets too bad", but your initial vote is what's causing that to happen. Wouldn't not voting to prevent a useless death be better than killing at random? As the votes stand, any Emotional Allomancers can swing this any way they want too, which will probably be in the Spiked's favor.

Now, what I want to find out who we can start trusting. We have two tineyes apparently. So what are the chances one of them are Spiked? How likely is it that both of them are on the Villagers side? Without a Seeker, and the Mistborn only able to use their Seeking powers once every week cycle, proving Roles and alignment is going to be pretty difficult if not impossible.

Edit: Well Joe just retracted his vote, kind of killing some/most of my argument. But still. Meh.

Edit 2: Updated: Any my beautiful Death Ketek is back and more beautiful than ever!

 

Edited by Gamma Fiend
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Forage, he doesn't see much suspiciousness from this man accused, this Erendi. Forage, he is a fine judge of character, you see. Long time as a merchant has given Forage much knowledge of this town's people, and he can tell that this inactivity is just Erendi's normal behavior. You see, this man, it is like.... This Erendi, he is a quiet one. Forage, he has known others like him before, as if they are all but one person in many incarnations, and they are all quiet even in such dark situations as these. His quiet, Spiked do not make.

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Reasons Why Meta is Obviously Spiked:

 

By Posting all that Strategy Information, he's made sure that everyone will trust him and not use those good Strategies, because the Spiked know them. He's trying to Force everyone to vote for Different people, insuring that everyone only has one vote, giving the Emotional Allomancers and Spiked the Ability to control the Vote, Thirdly, whenever someone says don't lynch till we have more Info (Gamut, Me, Chid) he casts Suspicion on them, and makes it so that no one else will take their side.

 

Reasons Why Meta is Obviously Innocent:

 

By Posting all that Strategy Information, he's made sure that no one will trust people, (The spiked) who use such Tactics, Which weakens the Spiked. He's had everyone vote for a Different person, so that we can weed out the Truly inactive, and to get more Info, he's also advised us on how to stop the Emotional Allomancers. Thirdly, he's cast blame on those who go against these Strategies, because they say they want more Information, but they can't get Info without throwing Accusations around. He makes sure that everyone understands how to catch the Spiked

 

Verdict: Meta is most Likely Innocent, but also Evil. Not Spiked, just Evil.

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Well, it my opinion that, someone needs to lynched this cycle, otherwise we really don't gain anything at all. The Spiked will benefit from our inactions in the long run. That said, I'm voting for one of my major suspects, Mabi. My reasoning is the same as Meta's. That's to say that it's mostly due to roleplaying reasons.  

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We've only got an hour left, so it's time to make some decisions, people. I'll give us a quick tally and then give my reasoning on who would be a good vote. 

 

Clan - l (Maw)
Forage - l (Wark)
Erendi - ll (Meta, Bartson)
Mabi - l (Asp)
JasonPenguin - lll (Chid, Asp, Forage)*
 
*I doubt these votes count, but these people might want to change their votes, obviously.
 
The only two on that list that I think are worth voting for is Erendi and Mabi. Mabi due to my suspicions above, but it would be a shame to lose someone who is active. Erendi is probably not Spiked, but is a safe lynch. It's effectively the same as voting for Lents, considering that if they're not active in the thread, then they're not much help to us. Last game, the Crew could've won it if all of the players had been active. Instead, they had 2 people who never showed back up and it cost them the game. Getting rid of those that are inactive helps by keeping the Spiked from using them later. 
 
I urge people to vote for one of these two people. Even if the Spiked do try to control the vote, they'll be giving us far more information than they would like by telling us that not only do they have an emotional allomancer, but we'll be able to narrow the field down to whom it might be. 
 
It's entirely possible that neither one of them is Spiked, in fact, I'd say that it's more likely than not, but like I said before, we're never going to have enough information, especially on the first day to lynch a Spiked assuredly. 
Edited by Metacognition
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Joe looked at the List the Detective had put up. Not many people to choose from. Clan seemed to Old to really be a villain, and While Forage seemed Dubious with his conning of people using his 'Magic' Shop, he didn't seem Evil. Mabi seemed a tad confused in how she looked for clues, but other than that seemed ok. And what was the point of trying to Kill a God? So Joe sighed and stood up.

 

"We don't know how many soothers and Rioters are running around, or if they're Spiked or not, so it seems that it would be best to have a clear victim, So, even though his only crime is not caring, I'm going to revote Erendi.

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Gamut's pleas began to fall on deaf ears as the Detective's persuasive arguments began to win people over and the suspicion had started to pile onto Erendi, who was sitting off alone in corner, silently scowling at everybody who looked his way.

Only makes sense. Why doesn't he speak up and defend himself?! Gamut understood what the detective was trying to accomplish. He wanted the same information as Meta did. But at what means am I willing to go to reach my goal? Perhaps that was the difference between the two. Gamut tried reading through that book of his, but all the Diagrams in it just confused him.

"I will stay my course. If this man is to meet Jack Ketch, then I'll have me no part. You'll find me over at Lurcher's, doing what I do best. Getting Loaded to the Gunwalls."

OOC: I love how many different terms there are about hanging in Pirate Slang. :D
 

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I think I will vote for Mabi. Here is my logic. We don't lose much if Erendi dies, certainly, but we don't stand to gain much either. The biggest reason for the lynching at this stage of the game is to gain information and frankly Erendi's guilt or innocence will give us very little information on anyone else being spiked or innocent precisely due to his inactivity. To get information we are actually better off lynching someone who has at least posted so we can look at what they said and how other people responded to them. Thus far Mabi seems slightly more suspicious than Erendi does.

 

So we stand to lose only a little bit more, we get more information, and we are more likely to hit a spiked. That balances to a vote for Mabi in my opinion. Besides that, with Mabi and Erendi's votes close and further above everyone else any soothers or rioters amongst the spiked will only be able to modify the vote to hit one of those two, our two primary suspects. If they do effect the vote then we learn even more without really losing much and if they don't effect the vote we also get more information from this. So getting a few votes onto both can work in our favour.

 

First day lynching always makes me sad, it is necessary, but it makes me sad : (

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Xaneth looked around, deciding who to kill. Mabi, he said. I agree with Clancy. Spiked are likely to be active at the beginning of the game. I also agree that Meta is likely unspiked, just an evil person. Venture Straff wasn't influenced by Ruin, but he was still evil.

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Night 2

Peng was displeased. How dare these mortals suggest they lynch him? He was their god. He ruled them. Without him, they were noting. Asp, forage and Chid. Blasphemers, all of them. Lightning struck from the sky, striking each of them simultaneously in the chest, killing them instantly.

------------------------------------

Asp was a regular villager

Forage was a regular villager

Chid was a regular villager

Edited by jasonpenguin
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Just kidding. Sorry about the double post by the way, but I couldn’t resist. Oh, and those aren’t really their roles, in case you couldn’t tell.

 

Night 2(for real this time)

Erendi had a secret. A big secret, in the form of a spike driven through his chest, but it wasn’t enough. He wanted power, and hopefully, in the process of slaughtering the villagers he would kill allomancers and take their abilities. He had the spikes ready already. All he needed was allomancers.

Erendi walked through the streets of blackwater, contemplating his plan. Then, suddenly a group of villagers cut him off, Meta at the front.

“you are accused of murder” Meta said “my detective work has proven you guilty, and I sentence you to death” and with that they dragged off Erendi and hung him.

-------------------------------------------------

Erendi was a spiked

The votes

Erendi(3)-meta, bartson, joe

Mabi(2)-asp, clan, xaneth

Forage(1)-warko

Clan(1)-maw

Peng(this vote doesn’t really mean anything)(2)- forage, chid

No vote(11)-gammon, alon, varrok, lents, dane, raubber, erendi, mac, arst, vizzini, mabi

Edited by jasonpenguin
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Huh. Well.

Gamut timidly walks up to Meta and stretches out his hand, "Parley?"
He had never made it a habit of being wrong, but Gamma was so glad he was wrong this time.

Guess I pretty much look like the fool for opposing the Lynching. XD

Edit: Besides that voting block being Soothed, someone could have stored their vote with Duralumin, or somebodies Vote could have been Rioted to look like a Soothing. (Unless Peng fixed Rioting like Meta was thinking of at the end of last game)

 

Edited by Gamma Fiend
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So here's what I think happened with the vote. The Negated vote for Mabi could be either 1)Soothing, 2) Rioting that looks like Soothing. And either of those would have been pulled by people in the Erendi voting block or 3)Duralumin charging, which would be somebody from the Mabi voting block. So we have it narrowed down to one of the three Emotional Arts. :P

But also, I think we should look at those last minute votes for Mabi. It could very well have been the Spiked coming in and trying to save Erendi last minute. Now, that move would basically put all of them right in the cross hairs, so that would have been pretty risky of them. But we should still pay attention to those votes, I think.

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