Long Game 40: Ashen Rebellion

[TheMightyLopen]

I'll go ahead and jump on the bandwagon in case Shqueeves in an eliminator. I guess if Shqueeves turns out to be a villager, another look at Road might not be a bad idea. But in this case, with activity the way it is, I'm not sure how much it'd change my opinion of him, since there's probably only a couple Skaa left, and it's gonna be difficult to catch them if everyone is this quiet(myself included, sorry about that).

One thought I had about the (likely Skaa)Coinshot is that they're probably in whatever House that isn't Alv's or BR's. Alv was an Atium misting, so giving them a Coinshot would be unbalanced. And BR's House is probably elim-free. So the other 2 Houses should be able to look at who's active in their House and narrow it down to a couple players.

[A Budgie]

Okay, may as well join the bandwagon, and we can go from there. Shqueeves.

[Rebecca]

I guess Shqueeves just in case he’s an elim. And I’m going to agree that Road deserves another look at if Shqueeves is village.

[Sparkrunner]

Sami: @Ookla the Wofl

Spoiler

1. States that she might be inactive.
2. RP.
3. Says that she think phatt is suspicious, and Alv is more village. RP
4. Votes for phatt.
5. Votes for phatt again. RP
6. Apologizes for inactivity.

The RP is a good thing for a noble to do, and the phatt voting is NAI for me.

[Shqueeves]

Sorry for being silent, Worm is really interesting and time consuming.

I haven't been following this game closely, but I have the next few hours open and will read though and give some analysis. As to the votes on me, I just want to say that I disagree (obviously) that voting on me is a good idea. There isn't much evidence to prove my innocence. The only thing that I have going for me is the fact that I was in the same house as Aster. I hope that when I die you guys all take a nice long look at Road

[livinglegend]

42 minutes ago, Ookla that Watches said:

There isn't much evidence to prove my innocence. The only thing that I have going for me is the fact that I was in the same house as Aster. I hope that when I die you guys all take a nice long look at Road

That is a solid point. I feel like I need to join the bandwagon just in case I'm wrong and miss out on favor for my house, but if you are in the same house as Asterion, I highly doubt you're a skaa. I'll put my vote on Roadwalker for now. I'll do my best to look further into other's voting patterns, but if we are down to just a couple of inactive skaa, I really think it's time we use the built in houses to hunt down the skaa. 

[Megasif]

As for me: I liked this vote of Randuir's.

A budgie

[Droughtbringer]

The cycle is now closed.

[Droughtbringer]

“Stephan we really don't like you and think you are a Skaa!” the assembled people shouted.

And they killed him.

Shqueeves has been lynched! He was a Noble aluminium misting!

I'll add in a player list and countdown timer once I have computer... which won't be for a while. Sorry.

[TheMightyLopen]

Okay, well, Shqueeves was innocent. Not really surprising. That's usually how inactive last hour lynches go.  So anyways, people are probably thinking about going after Road now. Something that I don't think has been pointed out yet is that, if we're assuming the Coinshot is Skaa(which is pretty likely), that means Road is much more likely to be village. When the eliminators get extra attack power, the village usually has extra defense. That's just how things go. If a couple protection roles had already been killed and turned out to be village, maybe I'd think again about Road, since if there's too much protection, that might hint that the elims also got a protect role. However, no protection roles have died yet, so I'm very much inclined to believe that Road is village.

Moving on, we need to do something about the Coinshot. If you are a villager Mr. or Mrs. Coinshot, please kill Bard or Shaneysrus, as they are completely inactive. Unless they post because of these mentions: @ShaneysRus, @Ookla the Inquisitive. One of you might die if you don't post something right now!

Next up, the 2 Houses that haven't caught their Skaa yet need to do some internal investigating. I wouldn't suggest it for right now, but roleclaiming to each other would probably be a good idea during this next Day, to force the eliminators to have some accountability with their actions(of course, they can lie, but I imagine there's still 1 or 2 scanners around that should scare them into being honest ).

I want to do a list of my suspicions/trusts before the Night is over, in case I'm killed, but that can wait for another post(I want that favor ).

Oh, right, one more thing. I was thinking that it was possible that one of the eliminators was at the Ball last Cycle and that's why there was no Skaa kill. The players at the Ball last Cycle were BR, Doc, and Budgie. Now, I'm not all that suspicious of those 3, so I was also thinking that it might be possible that the elim kill was on one of them. I think this is less likely, since the elims would probably know who was there, but it's a possibility. GM's, if a kill was submitted on a player at the Ball, would it show up in the write-up somehow?

[ShaneysRus]

No, don't kill me! What happened to all the kill power that was being thrown around the other nights?

 

@TheMightyLopen was this the first time you went to the ball?

[Lemonelon]

It looks to be a quiet night tonight. Don’t have much concrete to put toward the conversation, just some gut reads which I spoke about last turn.

[TheMightyLopen]

2 hours ago, ShaneysRus said:

No, don't kill me! What happened to all the kill power that was being thrown around the other nights?

 

@TheMightyLopen was this the first time you went to the ball?

Hey, you're still around! Awesome.  Well Alv was killed, and he was the Atium killer.

I've never gone to the Ball actually.

[BrightnessRadiant]

Sooooooo, um yeah xD I went inactive from irl stuff. Sorry! Anyone feel like catching me up cuz I don't feel that great and don't want to read through everything that happened in the past like four days 

[TheMightyLopen]

Let's see...Asterion was lynched. The voters were me, Darkness, Megasif(self-preservation, since he was the other lynch target), Arraenae(last minute, possible elim vote?), and Legend. Darkness was then killed by the Coinshot, and there was no Skaa kill. Then last Day happened, and no one really did anything until we all piled on Shqueeves for his inactivity since there wasn't enough time for a real lynch.

The votes on Megasif were by Randuir, Arinian, manukos, and Asterion. The votes were tied at 3 until manukos votes on Megasif, and randuir said he was considering voting on Asterion to break the tie until manukos voted. At that point, it was 3 on Aster and 4 on Mega, but then Megasif moved his vote from Arinian to Aster for self preservation, Legend voted on Aster saying he was pretty sure Aster was an eliminator. Rae puts her vote on Aster close to cycle end saying other players reasoning was sound. This vote is interesting, since it didn't actually make much difference. It did protect against any vote manipulation I suppose, but we already killed one elim vote manipulator, so there likely isn't any more. That's not to say I'm not glad she put the vote down, since it lowers the risk, but I think I can see it coming from an eliminator.

Anyways, my current top suspects for Skaa are: Arinian, manukos, randuir, Arraenae, and Rebecca.

Obviously, I suspect Arinian, manukos, and randuir for their votes on Megasif instead of Asterion. I think only one of them is an eliminator though, since it's very rare to see more than 2 eliminators on a single lynch train. Arraenae, mostly for the vote on Aster at the end, as I'm a little paranoid of it. That, and she hasn't really been much of an impact in the lynch, even though she's fairly active. Rebecca, I'm not sure why I suspect her really. I guess I just have a bad tone read/gut read/there's just something off/any of the unclear reasons for being suspicious of someone.

[Droughtbringer]

This is closed! Sorry the past couple of days have been crazy for me and I slight maybe forgot about this (slightly).

[Droughtbringer]

I am partway done with a Writeup. This one will actually be up in a few hours!

(The write up will tell you that a Coinshot killed both Road and Megasif. Hazekillers killed Straw)

He slowly dropped coins, gliding over through the mists towards the first of his targets. His target was sitting bellow him, as he soared overhead. With practiced precision the assassin dropped a coin, and pushed on it as hard as he could, and the brain embedded itself within his target's skull.

The assassin had more metal than normal, and he was going to make use of it.

He continued his flight, to the other side of the city, and repeated the process leaving Thirmul Haht, and Lawrence Arthur dead in his wake.

---

A shadowy figure gave the order, sending the group of Hazekillers off to kill his specified target. He was sure to give them specific instructions to take the long way around, giving him plenty of time to...

Ray through off his hood, bathing himself in the light of a torch, standing a solemn vigil against the mists. Footsteps pounded down behind him, and he turned to face the oncoming threat, a dueling cane in hand, and a small book in his other. He had already accepted death, welcomed it, even. But that did not mean he wouldn't go down fighting.

---

Roadwalker has died! He was a Noble Pewter Misting!

Megasif has died! He was a Noble Nothing!

Straw has died! He was a Noble Copper Misting!

 

This cycle will end https://www.timeanddate.com/worldclock/fixedtime.html?msg=LG40%3A+D5+End&iso=20171208T19&p1=4975

Player list (Actually updated):

Spoiler

1. Variel - StrikerEZ  Noble  Bronze Misting
2. Dorvan Tekiel - Randuir
3. Thirmul Haht - Megasif Noble
4. Lawrence Arthur - Roadwalker Noble Pewter Misting
5. Selina Khrom - Lemonelon
6.Dawn - Steeldancer  Noble Aluminium Misting
7. Adela - Brightness Radiant
8. Jax Sangrin Lekal - Darkness Ascendant Noble Gold Misting
9. Ray Karats - StrawNoble Copper Misting!
10. Darium - CloudjumperNoble
11. Alizarin Kenandera - Sami
12. Manukos
13. Belmark Entrone - Drake Marshal
14. Darquez - ShaneysRus
15. Bugsy Noble Bronze Misting!
16. Asterion137
17. Cassandra Bane - Rebecca
18. Rhiannon Aurette - Arraenae
19. Lady Noodlington - A Budgie
20. Faron Elverein - Arinian
21. Stephan - Shqueeves Noble Aluminium Misting
22. Lutha Erikell - Phattemer Noble Brass misting
23. Jonas - LivingLegend
24. Doc
25. Lopen
26. Joxter the Mighty - Alvron Noble Atium Misting!
27. Jerol - Young Bard

Support counts(in house order):

Not

here

yet

It's broken

Edited December 8, 2017 by Ookla of Five
Stuff I missed!

[DeTess]

55 minutes ago, Ookla of Five said:

(The write up will tell you that a Coinshot killed both Road and Megasif. Hazekillers killed Straw)

Okay, so we've got two coinshots now, and no clear Skaa kill. 

@A Budgie, I'd still like to hear why you thought Asterion was suspicious in D1, given that he seemed to be doing the same thing you where.

[TheMightyLopen]

7 hours ago, randuir said:

Okay, so we've got two coinshots now, and no clear Skaa kill. 

@A Budgie, I'd still like to hear why you thought Asterion was suspicious in D1, given that he seemed to be doing the same thing you where.

Actually, it was a single Coinshot with multiple shots. I'm guessing someone's House focus is Metals and they got extra vials?

Anyways, as for the Hazekiller attack, that was my House, but it wasn't me. And seeing as the only 2 players left are Bard and Budgie, it pretty much has to have been Budgie who killed Straw(someone else in my House). Budgie, any reason for killing your teammate when we already killed a Skaa in our group?

Oh, and as for my action, I'm a misting and used my role.

[Arrae]

Can someone post an updated player list? I'm planning on giving out my general reads on each player, but I'm not digging through the LG40 quicklinks on a phone for something that's going to be a few cycles off.

Just to clear some things up: @TheMightyLopen, when I last minute voted Asterion, I'd just come back from cheer practice, which I normally have on Mondays and Wednesdays from t3-5:40 PST. I prefer not to catch up on the thread on a phone during a waterbreak when I can be socializing instead.

Has this post hit 200 words yet? Oh, nope. Copying things into a wordcounter on a phone is a pain.

[9 hours later...]

There's only so much fluff I can put into this post, so I'm giving up and posting it now.

I'll ISO Rand once I get on something with a bigger keyboard.

[TheMightyLopen]

14 living players left. 11 dead Nobles, 2 dead Skaa. Drought did put an updated player list in the write-up, but here's one that's split up.

Player list:

2. Dorvan Tekiel - Randuir
5. Selina Khrom - Lemonelon
7. Adela - Brightness Radiant
11. Alizarin Kenandera - Sami
12. Manukos
14. Darquez - ShaneysRus
17. Cassandra Bane - Rebecca
18. Rhiannon Aurette - Arraenae
19. Lady Noodlington - A Budgie
20. Faron Elverein - Arinian
23. Jonas - LivingLegend
24. Doc
25. Lopen
27. Jerol - Young Bard

1. Variel - StrikerEZ(not letting me strikethrough for some reason) Noble Bronze misting(I think?)
3. Thirmul Haht - Megasif Noble 
4. Lawrence Arthur - Roadwalker Noble Pewter Misting
6.Dawn - Steeldancer  Noble Aluminium Misting
8. Jax Sangrin Lekal - Darkness Ascendant Noble Gold Misting
9. Ray Karats - StrawNoble Copper Misting!
10. Darium - CloudjumperNoble 
15. Bugsy Noble Bronze Misting!
21. Stephan - Shqueeves Noble Aluminium Misting
22. Lutha Erikell - Phattemer Noble Brass misting
26. Joxter the Mighty - Alvron Noble Atium Misting!

13. Belmark Entrone - Drake Marshal Skaa Zinc
16. Asterion137 Skaa Roleless

Edited December 6, 2017 by TheMightyLopen
moving Striker

[Doc12]

"Three more nobles died today, sir. Two bore signs of being attacked by a coinshot, both from the Third House. The other man was from the second House, and was murdered by a troop of hazekillers."

Galen frowned. "Doesn't the second house specialize in Hazekillers?"

"Yes, sir?"

"Why would the Second House sic hazekillers on their own House members? It doesn't make sense!"

As in response, he heard Lord Lopen calling out an accusation in the square. "Noodlington! Any reason for killing your teammate when we already killed a Skaa in our group?"

Galen frowned again. Turning towards Lopen, he whispered in his ear, "That can't be right. I was told that Noodlington attended the ball all night, last night. She couldn't have been the one to send the order. You know the other members of your House. Either your man sent your hired killers after himself, or your team members aren't as inactive as they seem."

Speaking of inactivity... Galen found himself speaking again. "There have been no skaa attacks for the past two nights. A cause for celebration, I am sure. However, the threat is not vanished, merely, I suspect, hiding. Perhaps they have lain too inactive to avoid scrutiny, and have not been able to meet to decide who kills." 

"Yesterday night seemed to go on forever, and through it all, each of our members showed up at some point or other. This means that if there have been skaa in our House, none of them put in the order to kill, even if they could have. There is the argument that the coinshot is one of us, and could have been the one killing. Even if that's the case, I seriously doubt that the skaa would not let the opportunity to have an extra kill each night slip pass. There could have been two more deaths if the skaa had been more active. In this case, I decide to look at the inactives among us to find the remaining skaa."

"The inactives, or the people who have not really been speaking up much, or at all, are thus "Jerol (Bard), Jonas (legend), Selina (Lemon), Adela (Brightness), Cassandra (Rebecca) and Alizarin (Sami). Let us take a look at the skaa who have died. Belmark (Drake), from the Fourth House, and Aster, from the Second House. That leaves my House, the First, and the Third House that have not rooted out their skaa."

Galen sucked in a breath. "Now, among the nobles who have been inactive, Lady Cassandra (Rebecca) has not been very active. She, besides Lemon, have been the only inactive members of the Third House, and Lemon had managed to post last night. Thus, I believe that Cassandra might be the inactive Skaa that we are searching for. Once she is disposed of, the First House will then turn our attention inwards to the skaa in our ranks."

[Arrae]

Thank you Lopen.

Here's my reads, off the top of my head:

Player list:

2. Dorvan Tekiel - Randuir: He's been activeish, but not as much as he seemed to be in other games. He also voted against the Asterion lynch. Slightly elim. At the ball last night, if anyone cares.
5. Selina Khrom - Lemonelon: Inactive?
7. Adela - Brightness Radiant: Far more inactive than I remember her being in other games. Maybe it's a sign that she's an elim? @TheMightyLopen, how busy is BR now?
11. Alizarin Kenandera - Sami: Inactive?
12. Manukos: Inactive? Not very helpful.
14. Darquez - ShaneysRus: Inactive? I'm going to feel very sad if the next person on this list is inactive too.
17. Cassandra Bane - Rebecca: ...and she'd inactive. Oh joy.
18. Rhiannon Aurette - Arraenae: Village, duh.  I know I haven't been the most active...I've been too engrossed in reading Worm fanfic lately. Oops.
19. Lady Noodlington - A Budgie: I remember that she voted on Asterion D1. She was at the ball last night. NAI, have to look at her more closely. The Asterion vote could have been a distancing tactic or evidence that she's not an elim.
20. Faron Elverein - Arinian: He's been RPing a bit. I don't remember that much contribution from him.
23. Jonas - LivingLegend: He put down the vote that tipped the lynch to Asterion. Probably a villager. It's a shame he's inactive.
24. Doc: He's plenty active when it comes to RPing, but I don't remember much discussion from him. It could be an elim tactic to make him seem alive while not contributing anything meaningful to the discussion.
25. Lopen: Probably a villager, considering his early Drake vote. Active too. Probably the most influential player discussion-wise this game.
27. Jerol - Young Bard: Inactive.

Is it possible that there were some active skaa last night, but they were sent to the ball and couldn't kill without bringing down a mountain of suspicion down on them, since there were only three people there total, and a death would put that down to two?

354 words, woo!

[TheMightyLopen]

1 minute ago, Ookla the Rae said:

Thank you Lopen.

Here's my reads, off the top of my head:

Player list:

2. Dorvan Tekiel - Randuir: He's been activeish, but not as much as he seemed to be in other games. He also voted against the Asterion lynch. Slightly elim. At the ball last night, if anyone cares.
5. Selina Khrom - Lemonelon: Inactive?
7. Adela - Brightness Radiant: Far more inactive than I remember her being in other games. Maybe it's a sign that she's an elim? @TheMightyLopen, how busy is BR now?
11. Alizarin Kenandera - Sami: Inactive?
12. Manukos: Inactive? Not very helpful.
14. Darquez - ShaneysRus: Inactive? I'm going to feel very sad if the next person on this list is inactive too.
17. Cassandra Bane - Rebecca: ...and she'd inactive. Oh joy.
18. Rhiannon Aurette - Arraenae: Village, duh.  I know I haven't been the most active...I've been too engrossed in reading Worm fanfic lately. Oops.
19. Lady Noodlington - A Budgie: I remember that she voted on Asterion D1. She was at the ball last night. NAI, have to look at her more closely. The Asterion vote could have been a distancing tactic or evidence that she's not an elim.
20. Faron Elverein - Arinian: He's been RPing a bit. I don't remember that much contribution from him.
23. Jonas - LivingLegend: He put down the vote that tipped the lynch to Asterion. Probably a villager. It's a shame he's inactive.
24. Doc: He's plenty active when it comes to RPing, but I don't remember much discussion from him. It could be an elim tactic to make him seem alive while not contributing anything meaningful to the discussion.
25. Lopen: Probably a villager, considering his early Drake vote. Active too. Probably the most influential player discussion-wise this game.
27. Jerol - Young Bard: Inactive.

Is it possible that there were some active skaa last night, but they were sent to the ball and couldn't kill without bringing down a mountain of suspicion down on them, since there were only three people there total, and a death would put that down to two?

354 words, woo!

Were you at the Ball Rae?

BR has been crazy busy. First she had 2 of our nieces come over and spend the night, Sunday she was sick, and yesterday and today she's spent at one of my sister's house. I'm almost positive she's village. First reason - Striker was killed N1. I doubt she'd want to kill one of her friends so early. Makes the game less fun if you can't try to fool your close friends.  Second reason - her inactivity. I think part of the reason for her inactivity is that she didn't think her House had a chance after the beating they took in the first Cycle(lost half of their players). If she were an elim, it wouldn't make much difference to her, and she'd have free reign to do what she wanted with her House focus, pretty much.

At this point, since I reveal who is in my House below, each House knows who's in each House(except House 4, but since their fairly inactive and already revealed themselves, I think it's fair to reveal this stuff), so here it is to make things clearer.

House 1: Doc, Randuir, manukos, Arinian, Megasif, Bugsy, phattemer
House 2: Lopen, Budgie, Bard, Straw, Darkness, Shqueeves, Asterion
House 3: Arraenae, Rebecca, Lemonelon, Shaneysrus, Alvron, Roadwalker, Cloudjumper
House 4: BR, livinglegend, Sami, Striker, Steeldancer, Drake

Asterion and Drake were elims, hence the bold text. Anyways, Alv was in House 3, and he was a kill role. Houses 4 and 2 already caught Skaa in their Houses. Which means the Coinshot is very likely in House 2. Either that, or House 4, and that's very unlikely that there'd be 2 Skaa in House 4. Randuir was at the Ball, so unless he could use Steel to move away from the Ball and also kill 2 players, he's not the Coinshot(I have asked Drought about this possibility though). That leaves manukos, Doc, and Arinian. Doc and manukos have both claimed to me, but they're claims are both unproven. I've no idea what Arinian is or has claimed.

Regardless, I think we should lynch Randuir. I don't like revealing information given to me privately, but at this point I think I need to. Doc told me that Rand is a scanner, and he's scanned Alv and me. He scanned Alv I believe N1, and the elims killed him N2. I think he scanned me N2, and that's why I haven't been attacked. I'm a...forgot what the name is, but I've got Iron. If Rand is an eliminator and scanned me N2, it makes sense that they wouldn't even attempt to double-tap me, as I can use Iron to move myself away from all targeted actions. Add to that that Rand's House knows he's a scanner. The Coinshot has all but proven themselves to be an eliminator, so why is Rand still alive? If he was village, he'd be the biggest threat, since he could find the Coinshot. And if Rand can find the Coinshot, why go to the Ball last Night? He can't scan for them if he's at the Ball. It's not like he can claim he went for protection, because the Coinshot had already revealed themselves as an eliminator by killing Darkness(pretty much).

I'm also pretty suspicious of Doc, because of our PM conversation, and also his vote on Rebecca. If the eliminators are bold enough to go all out like they just did during the Night, we're pretty close to the end of the game. So voting on an inactive player seems suspicious to me. He's also focused on manukos as his top suspect for his House, and if Randuir is an eliminator like I suspect, it feels like he was trying to get me to look in the wrong places.

Argh, just remembered that Doc has been at the Ball most of the game, so he can't be the Coinshot. Crap, I need to rethink things. I guess I'll just leave all of this here though, since it's useful information.

Budgie was at the Ball, so she couldn't have killed Straw. The only other players who could have used our Hazekillers were me or Bard, and I used my action on myself. Bard has been inactive from the beginning of the game, so I highly doubt he would suddenly come back and use our House action without even popping in the doc. That leaves outside interference, which I'm still trying to figure out if it's possible.

House 3, do you think it's possible for your team to somehow take control of my Hazekillers?

[Arrae]

@TheMightyLopen, we might be able to. Can't you order them to do stuff yourself though?

Also, Shaneysrus isn't House 3. We had Megasif instead.

Lopen, I feel like Doc and Randuir can't both be elims, because otherwise Doc gains nothing from telling you Rand's role. He'd be risking you asking the question of how Randuir isn't dead yet, which doesn't help the elims at all unless they want to buss someone when two of them are already dead. It seems most plausible as Elim Rand/village Doc with suspicions.

N2, my House found that Arinian targeted Phatt with a kill order. Alv was the skaa kill that cycle, so Arinian had to be a coinshot. Based off of the way Arinian's been kind of silent, I think he's trying to slip under the radar. If Arinian has any cycles where his actions weren't accounted for and there was a kill, he's probably the elim coinshot. It doesn't look like the skaa in House 1 has been found either.