Long Game 40: Ashen Rebellion

[TheMightyLopen]

14 hours ago, Megasif said:

That was rather excellent, if I do say so myself. Lopen and DA came through there.

If anyone has protection, I'd suggest you make good use of it tonight.

I'd want to lynch Arinian next. But elim/elim interactions would make Arinians voting on the same people as Asterion would be rather obvious for the elim team. They would definitely try to distance themselves. But at this point, it wouldn't be unexpected.

What are people's thoughts on Doc?

Yeah, although I was doubting myself a lot on that one. >>

On the subject of protection, it would be nice if people didn't kill everyone this Turn.

I'm wary of Arinian too, and think that at least 1 of Arinian and Randuir are eliminators. I want to review all of their posts so far to see what I think. Doc, I don't have a strong opinion on. He did put the 2nd vote on Darkness after Asterion had already voted on him, so like you said with elim/elim interactions, it would be a little strange to vote side by side like that. Unlike Arinian and Randuir though, I haven't seen anything else from him that made me suspicious. Of course, that could be because he hasn't posted game thoughts very much... I'd say I'm slightly leaning towards villager for him.

[Arinian]

RP:

*  *  *

Sleep... everyone see dreams when sleeping, even if forgot them when morning comes. The dreams... so essential for humans. The death or madness follows one who will lose dreams.

Faron lost his dreams long ago... doctors they recommended 1000s of methods... mixtures, herbals. Soon Faron shrugged off all this recommendations. He needed none of them because this was no illness his dreams just were stolen. Stolen by the most experienced thief and thief was Time.

Time turned to shreds all what he loved, all his successes were torn to dust. Even his own mind now failed him.

Parts of him still were here he smiled, he danced, he loved… But many others things that belonged to him now faded. He was just dull copy of him past.

In short time his life turned from miracle to horror and no one to blame but himself. Something dark, deep inside taken control… He tried his best to retain control but failed again and again. Maybe it was curse for his luck? Maybe he deserved that? Who knows…

He struck with sword again and again, figure on ground stopped to move long ago but he continued... he smiled with satisfaction. He never lost in his life… but in the end by the irony he lost to himself.

[Rebecca]

So, it looks like another skaa has been eliminated. That means there is probably at least two or three more; one in each of the houses that a skaa has not already been found in. There could be more though. 

Now might be a good time to reveal what houses we’re in, as well as the houses of the already eliminated skaa. This would narrow down the options to whoever is in the houses where a skaa has not already been eliminated.

Then again, there is a good chance there is more than one skaa in each house, so it might not be a big help in the long term, but it would be pretty helpful right now.

[Droughtbringer]

N3 is now closed!

[Droughtbringer]

Jax kept his gold on, almost constantly these days. It was an expensive habit, but useful. Many considered gold to be a very useless metal to burn, but Jax knew the truth. Gold was information. And this information could find a Skaa among the ranks of his fellows. The gold showed a past him, younger, more idealistic. It gave its thought to him, and provided a seocnd point of view on everything he saw.

His gold shadow suddenly turned around, frightened, it had noticed something that he had not. 

Jax followed its movements too late. He could only watch as a coin pierced his eye.

Darkness Ascendant has been killed! He was a Noble Gold Misting!

 

75

62

77

72

Player list:

Spoiler

1. Variel - StrikerEZ Noble Seeker

2. Dorvan Tekiel - Randuir

3. Thirmul Haht - Megasif

4. Lawrence Arthur - Roadwalker

5. Selina Khrom - Lemonelon

6.Dawn - Steeldancer Noble Aluminium Gnat

7. Adela - Brightness Radiant

8. Jax Sangrin Lekal - Darkness Ascendant

9. Ray Karats - Straw

10. Darium - Cloudjumper

11. Alizarin Kenandera - Sami

12. Manukos

13. Belmark Entrone - Drake Marshal Skaa Soother

14. Darquez - ShaneysRus

15. Bugsy -  Noble Seeker

16. Asterion137

17. Cassandra Bane - Rebecca

18. Rhiannon Aurette - Arraenae

19. Lady Noodlington - A Budgie

20. Faron Elverein - Arinian

21. Stephan - Shqueeves

22. Lutha Erikell - Phattemer

23. Jonas - LivingLegend

24. Doc

25. Lopen

26. Joxter the Mighty - Alvron

27. Jerol - Young Bard

 

 

[Shqueeves]

At least there was only one death

[TheMightyLopen]

A Coinshot kill, and no Skaa kill. Strange. It seems pretty obvious that the Coinshot is an eliminator after that kill, since Darkness was pretty clear. So, maybe the elim team is sort of inactive, and the Coinshot is the only really active player left?

[Arrae]

1 hour ago, TheMightyLopen said:

A Coinshot kill, and no Skaa kill. Strange. It seems pretty obvious that the Coinshot is an eliminator after that kill, since Darkness was pretty clear. So, maybe the elim team is sort of inactive, and the Coinshot is the only really active player left?

I think probably was elim kill, because DA was obviously not an elim with his Asterion vote last cycle. There's a chance that it was a House war kill or inactivity mercy kill, but that seems less likely.

[TheMightyLopen]

59 minutes ago, Ookla the Rae said:

I think probably was elim kill, because DA was obviously not an elim with his Asterion vote last cycle. There's a chance that it was a House war kill or inactivity mercy kill, but that seems less likely.

Are you saying you think the kill was the eliminator kill and not from a Coinshot, or that you agree that the Coinshot is an eliminator?

[DeTess]

Okay, I mentioned this during D1, and it was mentioned in the write-up today, lending some credence to my theory that gold might help with finding Skaa. Has Darkness ever mentioned something about this, or useful results, in his house doc or in PM's?

What's also very interesting is the lack of a clear Skaa kill. The previous two nights there was a kill that seemed to be clearly perpetrated by the Skaa, and it is missing to day. (@Ookla of Five, are blocked kills mentioned in the write-up?) Assuming for the moment that blocked kills are mentioned, I think there are two likely possibilities. Either the elim team is suffering from inactivity, or the remaining elims are all mistings and for some reason decided to use their powers instead of using their kill. A third option might be that they can't actually use their kill each night, or it's not a guaranteed thing. That third option is really only likely in my opinion if the elims do indeed have a killing power, or if there are more than usual.

Of the two main options, I think inactivity is the most likely, as I can't imagine a lot of powers that would be better than the elims putting another person down, unless the elims believed themselves to be very safe. This line of thought initially made me somewhat more suspicious of LivingLegend, as he could fit the semi-inactive elim profile, but he'd been tie-breaker on the Asterion vote if I haven't miscounted the votes. There's a couple of other possibilities that I'll look into and discuss at a later point, but I wanted to mention Legend now as he was the first person that came into my mind that might fit.

Once again, I'm going to be somewhat less active this day-cycle (I should be fine during the night).

Edited December 1, 2017 by randuir

[Arrae]

9 hours ago, TheMightyLopen said:

Are you saying you think the kill was the eliminator kill and not from a Coinshot, or that you agree that the Coinshot is an eliminator?

Probably an elim coinshot.

I'm going to take a look at the votes last cycle, probably around 5-6 PM PST. If I don't by then, please ping me.

I've been kind of out of this game because of Civ 5 and a variety of other factors, so I'm going to try to make up for that today.

[Sparkrunner]

5 hours ago, randuir said:

gold might help with finding Skaa.

It says in the rules "History" or "Past" or something like that. My personal theory is that they could function as either some kind of detective, investigating the scene of the crime, or look at what would happen to them if they had been killed, ie. Seeing if there were coin wounds or knife wounds.

[Droughtbringer]

12 hours ago, randuir said:

(@Ookla of Five, are blocked kills mentioned in the write-up?)

Yes. They are.

[Arrae]

Just going back until I can find the vote that tipped the lynch onto Asterion.

Final vote tally:

Quote

Votes:
(6)Asterion: Rae, Legend, Megasif, Lopen, BR, Darkness
(4)Mesagsif: Manukos, Arin, Aster, Randuir
(1)Darkness: Doc

Tipping point:

Quote

Votes:
(6)Asterion: Legend, Megasif, Lopen, BR, Darkness
(4)Mesagsif: Manukos, Arin, Aster, Randuir
(1)Darkness: Doc

Unless the elims decided to bus an elim D3, Legend seems very obviously village. Unfortunately Megasif's vote, which created the tie, is kind of NAI because it was done for self preservation. If both Megasif and Asterion were elims, a random voter dying would be more favorable than an elim dying. A villager would also want to do a self preservation tie vote, because at least they know they're 100% village, where a random voter could be an elim.

I'm also slightly suspicious of people who didn't take part in this lynch at all, because an elim might not have wanted to risk getting involved by either bussing a teammate or voting for a potentially village Megasif.

That list of people would be, copying from the handy player list up top:

4. Lawrence Arthur - Roadwalker

5. Selina Khrom - Lemonelon

10. Darium - Cloudjumper

11. Alizarin Kenandera - Sami

14. Darquez - ShaneysRus

17. Cassandra Bane - Rebecca

19. Lady Noodlington - A Budgie

21. Stephan - Shqueeves

22. Lutha Erikell - Phattemer

27. Jerol - Young Bard

Ignore the numbers, I'm just leaving them in here to hopefully pad out the wordcount.

It looks like the people who didn't vote last cycle were also the quieter people. Inactivity isn't good. so can y'all reach out to these people in your House Docs and PMs and ask them to vote? As a corollary, the lack of votes today is pathetic. Seriously. We need activity and votes!

[A Budgie]

Yeah sorry, internet access has been flaky for me lately. I was planning to vote, but unfortunately never got around to it (which was really annoying, since I had planned to vote on Asterion).
As for analysis on the write-up...quite possibly there was only one or two elims active enough to vote on who they wanted to take out? We still don't know if the coinshot is an elim or village, but the fact that Darkness took out an elim points to them also being an elim. This suggests, then, that at least a few elims are inactive or somewhat inactive, which is hardly surprising.
I think today we should pull in some inactives and people who didn't vote, and find out why.

[Sami]

So sorry about the recent inactivity guys, I'm currently at a super full-on music camp and I haven't had much time to get on the Shard. I'll catch up soon, hopefully.

Edited December 2, 2017 by Ookla the Wofl

[DeTess]

7 hours ago, Ookla the Rae said:

I'm also slightly suspicious of people who didn't take part in this lynch at all, because an elim might not have wanted to risk getting involved by either bussing a teammate or voting for a potentially village Megasif.

That list of people would be, copying from the handy player list up top:

4. Lawrence Arthur - Roadwalker

5. Selina Khrom - Lemonelon

10. Darium - Cloudjumper

11. Alizarin Kenandera - Sami

14. Darquez - ShaneysRus

17. Cassandra Bane - Rebecca

19. Lady Noodlington - A Budgie

21. Stephan - Shqueeves

22. Lutha Erikell - Phattemer

27. Jerol - Young Bard

Phattemer died a little while ago, Rae... 

Anyway, I'm going to vote on a budgie for now. The pot-and-kettle accusation of Asterion in D1 Takes on a bit of a new light now that we know that Asterion was an elim, as it could quite possibly have been a distancing attempt.

I am still somewhat wary of Megasif, but he was rather active, so unless he's an elim coin-shot I don't see why he wouldn't have submitted the Skaa kill.

That's it from me for the next 8 hours or so. If for some reason I do suddenly get lynched and don't get on again in time to pass on some information, might I suggest that you keep @Arinian alive for a bit? You might need him to clear som stuff up.

[Sparkrunner]

Finally, some analysis. I need to do more of this.

Shqueeves: @Ookla that Watches

Spoiler

• States that he has a habit of going inactive in SE games.
• Joins and states that he will be active.
• Comments on changing to Ooklas.
• Goes inactive. States the obvious.
• Says he will RP. (On an interesting side note, he does not.) (On a more interesting side note, Shqueeves has not made any posts of 200 strategy or RP words, which a Noble would care about.)
• Makes another pointless comment. Warning: IKYK. (These statements of the obvious could be used by someone trying to seem active, or who is active and wants to seem like they are trying to seem active, but are secretly putting in kills and chatting in the elim doc.)

Overall read: Leaning elim.

-

Lemonelon: @Lemonelon

Spoiler

• 200+ words of RP.
• States that analysis of Aster makes asterion look slightly suspicious, but decides not to vote on elim=aster. "Waits to see how it works out."

Overall read: Very Very slightly elim, but that is probably because we have nothing to work with. @Lemonelon would you consider being more active? We need you to be.

-

Rebecca: @Rebecca

Spoiler

• States that she will be somewhat inactive and gives reasons, then states that she will try to be active! Hurrah!
• 200+ words of RP. Yay! Apologizes for being inactive. States renewed commitment.
• 200+ words of RP. Restates the obvious.
• Strategy post. Makes several self-contradictions, and a few weak convictions. States that she is the most suspicious of me, although she is not suspicious of anyone in a great amount.
• Makes an interesting post. States that the houses that have skaa eliminated from their midst should reveal that fact, so that we can focus on the other houses. NAI, because we don't know if houses have more than one skaa in them. If lemon was an elim then she would say this knowing that there are skaa in houses that have already lost skaa. Again, NAI unless lemon dies.

Overall read: Points in favor of being  both an elim and a villager, so a common balance of 0.

Edited December 2, 2017 by Ookla the Walker of Roads

[DeTess]

@Ookla the Walker of Roads, are you intending to actually vote on someone?  Analysis is nice, but at this point some votes need to be made as well, especially because the total amount of votes made this cycle isn't enough to actually lynch anyone, even if they all are on the same person (because they are). I also have a sneaking suspicion that the thing that happens in case of a tie might also happen in case of a no-vote( @Ookla of Five, does it?).

The same also goes for @Ookla the Rae, @Ookla the Wofl, @TheMightyLopen, @Megasif, @A Budgie, @Lemonelon, @Ookla the Healer, @Arinian, @Ookla the Inquisitive, @Arinian, @Rebecca, @cloudjumper,  and all the other people that have signed up and that either have an Ookla name I can't find right now or that I'm just forgetting about.

Edited December 2, 2017 by randuir
more pokes

[cloudjumper]

What? I've been dead for two cycles now why are people analyzing/tagging me?

[DeTess]

35 minutes ago, cloudjumper said:

What? I've been dead for two cycles now why are people analyzing/tagging me?

Oops. Right. Sorry about that.

[Lemonelon]

Okay, so based on the last round I was planning on following Darkness in his voting. That plan is a bit “meh” now...

[Sparkrunner]

Shqueeves. (Ookla that Watches)

[DeTess]

a budgie

shqueeves 

Because its looking increasingly unlikely that someone else will come by to vote, and this way at least some info will be gained, I guess.

[Lemonelon]

Being somewhat suspicious of Road, I’m hesitant on the bandwagoning of Shqueeves . If this turns out to be a good vote then for me Road is cleared, if not then I think we should be turning our attention to Road.