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Mid-Range Game 25: Lowborn Intrigue


TheMightyLopen

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THIS is what happens when I step away for awhile. All Ruin breaks loose. Well then... from what I can tell, Manukos is in a tight spot, seeing that Walin was a villager. But Walin was confusing altogether, so I'm not sure what to say.

My greatest village read so far is Jon, having been accused by Joe, a proven Elim, and has been providing worthwhile analysis so far. I guess Roadwalker is good too, can't really tell much.

I need a moment to sort through how things shape up.

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24 minutes ago, Darkness_ said:

Guys should keep in mind that Joe may have pushed on Jon with intention to be lynched, if not this early, to make everyone have a village read on Jon.

Personally, I doubt this for these reasons:

1. Joe didn't know he would be lynched.

2. Why would Joe immediately draw suspicion on a teammate, causing them to be a lynch target?

3. Joe could've waited a few cycles, and then added a vote on Jondesu if there was a cycle where Jon was a possible lynch target, but the other person had a few more votes than Jon. This would have had nearly the same effect, but would've had a much lower risk of Jon dying.

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15 minutes ago, Roadwalker said:

The eliminators are myself, Straw, and Jondesu. Roadwalker.

...what? If you're a villager, that doesn't help out in the slightest. If you're an eliminator, you just sacrificed yourself to draw more chaos in the thread. Plus it's nighttime, so that vote doesn't even work.

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                                                                                              Day 3

Bridge 11 trudged to a field of stones and set to work. Gaz had given them the hard job today. Not that they were complaining about not having to go on a bridge run today. 

But tempers were high, and suspicions everywhere. Traitors still lurked among them, and each bridgeman- and woman- trusted no one. 

And for good reason, for when their backs were turned, a rock was pushed onto Mortago. 

By the time they noticed, the perpetrator could not be identified, and Mortago was already dead. 

Many bridgemen did not sleep well that night. 


Sart was killed! He was a Unlucky Worldsinger!

Striker has received the Unremarkable vote!

PM's are closed. And once again, many thanks to Steeldancer for the write-up.

Also, @Eternum has until the end of this Turn to post or he will be strung up in a Highstorm for inactivity. I haven't been keeping up with inactivity up to this point, but will be from now on.

bla_1509246000.png

Player list:

Spoiler

1. Darkness (Nuatoma Akihiko)
2. Randuir (Tenodin)
3. Straw (An Explosive Gerbil)
4. Brightness Radiant (undecided)
5. Hemalurgic Headshot (Kurt Barnacles)
6. Jondesu (Div)
7. Sami (Reddathan)
8. Roadwalker (Silver Feather)
9. Drake Marshall (Pashul)
10. Lemonelon (Ellenie)
11. StrikerEZ (Ardenal)
12. Walin (Nerkel) 
Unlucky Eavesdropper
13. Arinian (blank)
14. Sart (Mortago) 
Unlucky Worldsinger
15. Megasif (Kohl)
16. OrlokTsubodai (Locke Tekiel)
17. Manukos (manukosokunam)
18. Eternum (Deral)
19. Shqueeves (Melb)
20. Joe in a Bush (Jost Joslin) 
Spy Eavesdropper

 

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 @Roadwalker, I applaud your appreciation for satire. Now can we be done with the 'I'm and elim, and these are my team-mates' meme for the rest of this game?

Anyway, time for me to talk a bit about my reads of the various players.

Darkness: I find Darkness's continued suspicion of both Jon and Straw quite interesting. I've never been an elim with Joe, and I've only once (not counting this game) played against him when he was an elim so I'm not too knowledgeable about his strategies. However, Darkness's stance about Straw and Jon seems to me to be far beyond normal Tinfoil. Then again, I don't see an elim risking attention at this point to try and reinstate suspicion on those involved in taking Joe out when it would be easier and less risky to just kill them all. Neutral read.
Straw: Straw was the second to vote on Jon in C1. He did however provide reasoning for his vote, and then followed that reasoning and evidence revealed at a later point to vote on Joe. No sudden stance changes or other oddities there. The only other comment that stood out to me was his quick reaction on Walin's gambit, but given that at that point most people thought Walin was an elim than I'd say Straw's reaction was more villager-like, as an elim would have known that the reveal would be proven false in a bit. Given that Straw was the vote that put Joe in the lead I'm reasonably confident that Straw is a villager.
Brightness Radiant: First vote on Straw, nothing else of consequence. I really hope she starts posting more. I'm leaning village on her.
Hemalurgic Headshot: Hasn't posted much. I'm rather curious about what made him conclude Roadwalker was probably good though. Neutral read.
Jondesu: Joe's target C1. Got attacked by elims in the might of C1. If this was part of some WGG then I really need to applaud the elims for their dedication to bringing this point home. I might re-evaluate him in 1 or 2 cycles if he's still alive, but for now I'm reading village on him.
Sami: posted once two days ago to apologize for not posting. No read, poke notification to be more active(@Sami).
Roadwalker: His first action of the game was to claim to be a village Unremarkable. If he's speaking the truth then this action worked out in favor of the elims. If he was lying then why speak up about this at all? As an interesting bookend, in his last post he claims to be an elim...

Roadwalker did vote on Joe in C1, but retracted it again after Joe posted his defense.Though noteworthy, this is fairly NAI, as there are reasons for both a villager or an elim to do so. Roadwalker was also one of the first to vote on Walin, while calling it a poke vote in white text. His vote being at least the second vote on Walin, I don't think there was hardly anything pokey about it. Overall I'm leaning somewhat elim on Roadwalker. a lot of his actions just seem odd,  selfish or aimed at increasing chaos.
Lemonelon: I just realized something very interesting. @Lemonelon talks twice about communicating with Joe in PM's:

Quote

I'm going to vote Walin on this round. He sided with Joe pretty quickly for a D1 lynch when we had no real suspicions. I'm glad I vote cycle 1, as I was PMing with Joe and asked him if he was an elim to which he said no. Has me sort of paranoid now about trusting PMs. 

Quote

Hmmm, I think the "secret role" thing is something the elims are cooking up. Before I realised Joe was elim, he mentioned about creating a secret role to put forward to the thread. Megasif your lack of vote on Walin and mention of secret roles is making me think perhaps you are either an  elim or having a conversation with one...

There's a number of things standing out to me here, such as the fact that apparently an elim not admitting that they are such makes him trust PM's less. However, what he said also seems to indicate that he and Joe had a rather active PM. And yet, Joe failed to mention this in his list (and Lemon didn't correct him). It makes me wonder whether there where no PM's between them to begin with, just conversation in the elim Doc. This would certainly explain why Joe didn't include him in the list of PM's, and why Lemon saw no reason to correct him at the time.

Anyway, this theory does involve a non-negligible amount of tin-foil, but at the same time it's an explanation that seems to fit the facts for me, So I've got an elim read on Lemon

StrikerEZ: Striker is not verry active, and I remain somewhat suspicious of him because of his vote on Jondesu. Slight elim read.
Arinian: Posted very little. No read, poke notification(@Arinian).
Megasif: Alos posted very little. No read, poke notification(@Megasif).
OrlokTsubodai: Hasn't posted much either, but has provided some reasons for that. I've got no read to him (which, given Orlok's tricksyness means that he's obviously an elim).
Manukos: Hasn't posted much. No read.
Eternum:  Posted very little. No read, poke notification(@Eternum).
Shqueeves: Posted very little. No read, poke notification(@Shqueeves).

I'm going to vote on Lemon For now, though I might be willing to change the vote depending on what he has to say.

@TheMightyLopen/ @Steeldancer since spy kills are shown differently from guard/assassin skills, and the previous spy kill was very clearly a poisoning. Does that mean that the rock being pushed onto Sart means that that kill was not the spy faction kill?

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45 minutes ago, randuir said:

 @Roadwalker, I applaud your appreciation for satire. Now can we be done with the 'I'm and elim, and these are my team-mates' meme for the rest of this game?

Anyway, time for me to talk a bit about my reads of the various players.

Darkness: I find Darkness's continued suspicion of both Jon and Straw quite interesting. I've never been an elim with Joe, and I've only once (not counting this game) played against him when he was an elim so I'm not too knowledgeable about his strategies. However, Darkness's stance about Straw and Jon seems to me to be far beyond normal Tinfoil. Then again, I don't see an elim risking attention at this point to try and reinstate suspicion on those involved in taking Joe out when it would be easier and less risky to just kill them all. Neutral read.
Straw: Straw was the second to vote on Jon in C1. He did however provide reasoning for his vote, and then followed that reasoning and evidence revealed at a later point to vote on Joe. No sudden stance changes or other oddities there. The only other comment that stood out to me was his quick reaction on Walin's gambit, but given that at that point most people thought Walin was an elim than I'd say Straw's reaction was more villager-like, as an elim would have known that the reveal would be proven false in a bit. Given that Straw was the vote that put Joe in the lead I'm reasonably confident that Straw is a villager.
Brightness Radiant: First vote on Straw, nothing else of consequence. I really hope she starts posting more. I'm leaning village on her.
Hemalurgic Headshot: Hasn't posted much. I'm rather curious about what made him conclude Roadwalker was probably good though. Neutral read.
Jondesu: Joe's target C1. Got attacked by elims in the might of C1. If this was part of some WGG then I really need to applaud the elims for their dedication to bringing this point home. I might re-evaluate him in 1 or 2 cycles if he's still alive, but for now I'm reading village on him.
Sami: posted once two days ago to apologize for not posting. No read, poke notification to be more active(@Sami).
Roadwalker: His first action of the game was to claim to be a village Unremarkable. If he's speaking the truth then this action worked out in favor of the elims. If he was lying then why speak up about this at all? As an interesting bookend, in his last post he claims to be an elim...

Roadwalker did vote on Joe in C1, but retracted it again after Joe posted his defense.Though noteworthy, this is fairly NAI, as there are reasons for both a villager or an elim to do so. Roadwalker was also one of the first to vote on Walin, while calling it a poke vote in white text. His vote being at least the second vote on Walin, I don't think there was hardly anything pokey about it. Overall I'm leaning somewhat elim on Roadwalker. a lot of his actions just seem odd,  selfish or aimed at increasing chaos.
Lemonelon: I just realized something very interesting. @Lemonelon talks twice about communicating with Joe in PM's:

There's a number of things standing out to me here, such as the fact that apparently an elim not admitting that they are such makes him trust PM's less. However, what he said also seems to indicate that he and Joe had a rather active PM. And yet, Joe failed to mention this in his list (and Lemon didn't correct him). It makes me wonder whether there where no PM's between them to begin with, just conversation in the elim Doc. This would certainly explain why Joe didn't include him in the list of PM's, and why Lemon saw no reason to correct him at the time.

Anyway, this theory does involve a non-negligible amount of tin-foil, but at the same time it's an explanation that seems to fit the facts for me, So I've got an elim read on Lemon

StrikerEZ: Striker is not verry active, and I remain somewhat suspicious of him because of his vote on Jondesu. Slight elim read.
Arinian: Posted very little. No read, poke notification(@Arinian).
Megasif: Alos posted very little. No read, poke notification(@Megasif).
OrlokTsubodai: Hasn't posted much either, but has provided some reasons for that. I've got no read to him (which, given Orlok's tricksyness means that he's obviously an elim).
Manukos: Hasn't posted much. No read.
Eternum:  Posted very little. No read, poke notification(@Eternum).
Shqueeves: Posted very little. No read, poke notification(@Shqueeves).

I'm going to vote on Lemon For now, though I might be willing to change the vote depending on what he has to say.

@TheMightyLopen/ @Steeldancer since spy kills are shown differently from guard/assassin skills, and the previous spy kill was very clearly a poisoning. Does that mean that the rock being pushed onto Sart means that that kill was not the spy faction kill?

Nope. I was bored and wanted to write about the rock being pushed on a person. It was an elim kill, sorry for not making that clear. (I'm only telling you that because it was said earlier they would be differentiated). 

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I’m a little surprised to not have been targeted, but at this point I’ll probably garner more suspicion if they leave me alive for a few cycles, so maybe they’re banking on that, or had reason to think Sart was a threat. I’ll come back with some analysis in a little while I hope.

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Sorry, Roadwalker, but being weird doesn’t quite add up. We have a lot of weird players, with unique play styles, and what you’ve been doing is reading really wrong to me. I’m not as convinced on the Lemon lynch, so you get my vote this cycle.

Edit: I know I said that I was getting a good feeling from you before and in our PMs, but after looking back and after your post claiming to be Eim, which I suspect was to capitalize on the fact that Walin did that and was not in fact an Elim, I changed my mind.

Edited by Jondesu
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Thanks for the ping, Randuir.

Don't have many suspicions at the moment.

Darkness' push on straw could be an elim capitalizing on the initial suspicions on straw and striker. But his tone and casual posting makes me think otherwise. So he could easily be a village convinced someones an elim. Neutral for now. 

Leaning village on Randuir because of his analysis but as seen many times, could be done by an elim as well. I agree on some of his reads so for now it's definitely helping village. 

And whilst I'm making this post:

19 minutes ago, Roadwalker said:

Roadwalker :D:P

So this has me mightily confused.

This could either be just an easy lynch target for the elims or Roadwalker making the same play as Walin, hoping it has the opposite effect, like what Jondesu mentioned in his post. For now, instead of just giving up like this, if you could try to explain your thoughts when you made certain posts then it can give everyone a better idea of where you were coming from.

Edited by Megasif
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Okay I gotta go in a but and I'll be back for real soon, but a quick though:

Is there something going in with these elim claims? I struggle to believe that people are just doing this randomly.

I can only draw two conclusions that make any kind if sense:

1- Roadwalker actually is an elim and is trying to play off of the fact that Walin claimed elim as a villager. If this is the case, I suspect that it really isn't working.

2- More likely in my opinion. I predict that there is some sort of secret role or game mechanic in play here that is causing people to behave in this way. I suppose suicidal bridgemen makes some sense, thematically. This explanation still creates many more questions than it answers.

 

This game confuses me.

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I haven't got much to add right now, and probably won't be on again until the end of the cycle. I'm not opposed to a Roadwalker lynch as there's definitely something going on with him. Vote tally for those curious.

Vote tally

Straw(1): Darkness

Lemon(1): Randuir

Roadwalker(3): Arinian, Jondesu, Roadwalker

Striker(1): Unremarkable mob

Edit: the Reason I'm not actually switching to Roadwalker is that I still feel that there's something going on With Lemon as well, so i want to leave the possibility for a switch to him open. Unless there's a large amount of vote manipulation that is about to be brought to bear Roadwalker's lynch is locked in right now so I don't think I need to add my vote there to prevent someone I think is innocent from getting lynched.

Edited by randuir
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