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Mid-Range Game 25: Lowborn Intrigue


TheMightyLopen

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@Darkness_, I can definitely see elims switching to vote on their own, but as I explained above, Joe had only 1 vote on him when Straw switched, while Jondesu still had 2. I therefore don't think they'd consider things a lost cause yet at that point. I'm not 100% convinced of this (note that I listed the four who voted on Joe as 'likely village', not 100% confirmed), but of those four, Straw is the one I least suspect.

I do agree that we shouldn't take Joe's reads as a real indication as there's likely elims among both his village and among his elim reads, just to make things difficult in case he got lynched.

Edited by randuir
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Nice, I kinda figured I'd be attacked.  I'm Tough, though I don't want to share my role with the whole thread, and while that's gone, I figured I'd rather draw an attack from the Elims that I could survive than have another villager attacked.

I can't say I really have a good feel for who the other Elims are, but I'm going to go back over that last cycle's votes (and non-votes) when I get a chance.

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Straw does have a point, care to explain why you're trusting Joe's reads, @Darkness_?

If he hasn't responded by lunch time (about 5-ish hours from now), I'll try to remember to come back on and poke vote him. I do think Walin would be a good target, otherwise. I agree with Manukos and Lemon as to why he seems suspicious. I'm too lazy to go into major detail and analysis, plus I have to leave for school soon. 

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I don’t have a lot of votes, or ideas on how to defend myself. Later in the day (if I still have some votes) I’ll go on the offense, since I’ve exhausted my defense. If it’s really late, and I’m first in line for the village attack, then I’ll pull out my wildcard.

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@StrikerEZ @Straw

You guys made me laugh.

I'm not trusting them haha, I'm trusting Joe's sense of manipulation...unless he's going all reverse psychology there. I wasn't using his reads to for anything asides helping my read on Walin, which is of an elim, whereas Joe lists him as village :P 

I'm probably going too much into it, but I just wanted to point it out, and I openly said we shouldn't rely on them.  

@randuir, Yeah I got your point, but I think Joe may have been trying to do that so we do trust Straw *shrugs.

I wouldn't put it past him.

EDIT: Besides, Straw, Striker. I only focus on you two cos you guys voted on Jond and seem off to me. Striker not so much, Straw more so.

Edited by Darkness_
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10 hours ago, Walin said:

I hope posting an analysis doesn’t make me suspicious like Joe in the Bush...

Whoa whoa whoa whoa. Where in the world does this come from...

Here is how I see this statement:

A less experienced elim slips out that he is somewhat angry that Joe was killed C1, which he has been venting about in the Elim doc, and has to do in

Read between the lines

the thread. I am not talking about actual posting, just feeling. Next, this elim distracts us from the reasons we lynched Joe, subtly misleading the village about the analysis, etc.  Walin. (More of a poke vote.) @Walin have you played Mafia before, and can you prove it? Otherwise you might be getting help from your buddies in PM's and the doc. Walin's other posts also seem to be defending Joe, with that same kind of desperate, bitter underlying feeling.

51 minutes ago, Darkness_ said:

I'm not trusting them haha, I'm trusting Joe's sense of manipulation...unless he's going all reverse psychology there. I wasn't using his reads to for anything asides helping my read on Walin, which is of an elim, whereas Joe lists him as village :P 

This is Joe here. He would do everything to confuse us.

Edited by Roadwalker
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I still haven't cheked previous cycle but from Rand's analyze I can say that right now as suspicious for me can be counted Roadwalker and Walin.

Roadwalker cause elims probably have vote manip and wanted to try save Joe but in the end decided that it's will be too revealing if Roadwalker after his vote on Joe will vote for Jon. Maybe miscommunication or something else, it's just guess.

Voting for Walin because I don't see big difference between voting on one probable elim than on other.

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In case this clarifies a little, I have the unremarkable vote, but I have not used it yet.

@Arinian I had no reason to vote for Jon, he did not look that suspicious. I removed my vote on Joe because it was more of a poke vote, to see his answer. I got his answer and removed my vote to think it over.

I admit pulling my vote out put me in a bad position.

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Eh, I have five votes so I should pull out my offensive. By the way @Roadwalker, I haven’t played forum mafia before.

I’m voting against Straw (on mobile so I can’t color text) because of his weird vote on Darkness—not that voting against him is odd, but the reason given applied to almost everyone in D1, unless I’m mistaken. This is kind of a poke vote.

Randuir’s and Darkness’s reasonings for calling me an eliminator are very good. Probably there’s more evidence against me than anyone else. However, it’s the wrong analysis. I’m an incoherent villager, not an incompetent elim.

Also, I’m not sure whether my wildcard is allowed. @TheMightyLopen, can I send a GM PM to show you the gist of the post personally before I whip it out?

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1 hour ago, Walin said:

Also, I’m not sure whether my wildcard is allowed. @TheMightyLopen, can I send a GM PM to show you the gist of the post personally before I whip it out?

 

1 hour ago, TheMightyLopen said:

Sure, that sounds good.

Hmm what is going on over here?

Anyways, I'm still sticking by my reads on straw and striker from D1. I don't think the elims would've jumped on the bandwagon so soon. Not that it's impossible but not going to vote for any of them two any time soon.

I'm tempted to vote for Walin because of his 'incoherency' as he puts it but seems like he has something up his sleeve so I'll wait and see. 

I'd like to think Jondesu is 100% villager and trying a WGG after C1 is going too far yet the previous game has me thinking otherwise. So right now I think he is likely to be a villager, especially from his most recent post, however, think me paranoid, but not fully trusting him yet.

I'll wait to see where this deal with Walin heads before I cast my vote, if I manage to come on before cycle ends.

 

Edit:

No one replied yet so thought I'd share a bit more. You see, I think Walin might have a secret role and I hope it doesn't end up killing everyone that voted on him. 

Edited by Megasif
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2 hours ago, Walin said:

Eh, I have five votes so I should pull out my offensive. By the way @Roadwalker, I haven’t played forum mafia before.

I’m voting against Straw (on mobile so I can’t color text) because of his weird vote on Darkness—not that voting against him is odd, but the reason given applied to almost everyone in D1, unless I’m mistaken. This is kind of a poke vote.

Randuir’s and Darkness’s reasonings for calling me an eliminator are very good. Probably there’s more evidence against me than anyone else. However, it’s the wrong analysis. I’m an incoherent villager, not an incompetent elim.

Also, I’m not sure whether my wildcard is allowed. @TheMightyLopen, can I send a GM PM to show you the gist of the post personally before I whip it out?

Here's how to do color on mobile- do (color=red) vote  (/color), except use [ ] instead of ( ). 

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I’m inclined to agree with Rand on the conclusions about those who voted on myself and Joe. I have more than a healthy dose of paranoia keeping me from fully trusting them, but for now I’m putting them on the more likely village side. Rand himself I’m not sure on, but he’s not super suspicious either. 

I hesitate to jump on yet another bandwagon, but I independently came to the conclusion that Walin’s defense of Joe was very suspicious. I mostly doubt that we’ll get lucky enough to find another Spy this quickly, and I’m not usually prone to lynching newer players either ( @Walin, is this your first or second game?), but I can’t ignore the suspicion.

Edit: Oh, and Walin, you can just use s instead of strikethrough to do this.

Edited by Jondesu
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Hmmm, I think the "secret role" thing is something the elims are cooking up. Before I realised Joe was elim, he mentioned about creating a secret role to put forward to the thread. @Megasif your lack of vote on Walin and mention of secret roles is making me think perhaps you are either an  elim or having a conversation with one...

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Ah ok then. Straw Walin just want to jump on an SE vote train before I lose—trying to go out in a blaze of glory.

”vote train” not “bandwagon” because the reasoning for the votes was pretty good. Hopefully @TheMightyLopen responds in time for my wildcard.

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Hmmm... I think it has come time to do some analysis.

1. Darkness (Nuatoma Akihiko)- Is analyzing Joe's reads in the hopes of learning something. Frankly, I don't think that this is a productive pursuit, but I don't think it's a suspicious one either. Neutral read.
2. Randuir (Tenodin)- I want to be careful before I form a read on Rand, heh. I do remember one comment Rand made D1 that made me lean village though.
3. Straw (An Explosive Gerbil)- Voted on darkness, has made some unusual comments. Not sure what to make of this. Somebody else please confirm if the weird vibe I am getting is legitimate? One other thing I notice that Straw voted shortly after Joe did. That would have been a pretty audacious move as an elim.
4. Brightness Radiant (undecided)- Neutral read as ever, hasn't said much.
5. Hemalurgic Headshot (Kurt Barnacles)- Also neutral, also hasn't said much.
6. Jondesu (Div)- Almost certainly a villager. Need I elaborate?
7. Sami (Reddathan)- Hasn't said much, I don't think.
8. Roadwalker (Silver Feather)- 
9. Drake Marshall (Pashul)
10. Lemonelon (Ellenie)
11. StrikerEZ (Ardenal)- Leaning elim. Casts a bandwagon-y vote on Jondesu that looked to me like it could have been supporting Joe. Retained the vote, bringing Joe closer to escaping. Is now approving the Walin lynch in a similar manner.
12. Walin (Nerkel)- 
 On one hand, the evidence surrounding him looks pretty bad, imo. He made comments about "D1 lynches being ineffective" right as Joe was taking the lead, which could easily have been an attempt to discourage the Joe lynch without appearing to do so. On the other hand, I tend to be suspicious of bandwagons. If Joe is any indicator, this eliminator team is okay with trying to steer the lynch.
13. Arinian (blank)- Undecided, isn't saying much.
14. Sart (Mortago)- Undecided, isn't saying much.
15. Megasif (Kohl)- Undecided, isn't saying much.
16. OrlokTsubodai (Locke Tekiel)- Undecided, isn't saying much.
17. Manukos (manukosokunam)- Undecided, isn't saying much.
18. Eternum (Deral)- Undecided, isn't saying much.
19. Shqueeves (Melb)- Undecided, isn't saying much.

A lot of people aren't participating very much. I am worried by this, because we won't easily be able to find eliminators in that crowd of untalkative people.

Of the active people, I would guess that either Walin or Striker is an eliminator.

The evidence against Walin is such that I won't really protest against lynching him, but I would appreciate if @StrikerEZ would explain their rationale on day 1.

I would also greatly appreciate if some of our less vocal players would at least put some reads out there. @everyone

 

On a totally unrelated note (warning, high salinity detected ahead):

Spoiler

I feel the need to discuss what "poke voting" is.

eKBUwrf.jpg

Poke voting, as I understand it, is meant purely to get somebody to respond/participate in the very early game, and not for any other reason.

If a vote is cast for a legitimate, potentially lynch-worthy reason, but one wishes to indicate that they might retract it, if the vote is met with a good enough defense, I would not call that a poke vote. That's just a regular vote. All votes might be retracted if there is a good enough defense. What sets apart a poke vote from a regular vote is that it exists for the sole reason of eliciting a response.

Okay, okay. So Drake, you ask, why bother bringing up some pointless debate of semantics? Where are you going with this?

Well, thing is. When one calls something a "poke vote" that feels a lot like an affectation meant to make the vote seem innocuous.

 

Aaaaaaaand finally don't you think it's about that time when I do RP?

 

Pashul sat in the back of the tavern as Div began to choke. Poison again? This bridge crew really was going to braize.

And we haven't even done a bridge run yet... Pashul was new to bridge 404, but he had heard stories... He had seen the looks in the others' eyes. They were broken. Most of them barely seemed to care whether they lived or died.

The crew's total apathy pressed down on him. Pashul struggled not to give into it, reminding himself that if he lived through this long enough, he might get out of this damned bridge crew.

Pashul noticed that Div seemed to be recovering. He forced a smile. Bridgemen were tough, if nothing else. Maybe, just maybe, they'd pull through after all.

Edited by Drake Marshall
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20 minutes ago, Drake Marshall said:

On a totally unrelated note (warning, high salinity detected ahead):

  Hide contents

I feel the need to discuss what "poke voting" is.

eKBUwrf.jpg

Poke voting, as I understand it, is meant purely to get somebody to respond/participate in the very early game, and not for any other reason.

If a vote is cast for a legitimate, potentially lynch-worthy reason, but one wishes to indicate that they might retract it, if the vote is met with a good enough defense, I would not call that a poke vote. That's just a regular vote. All votes might be retracted if there is a good enough defense. What sets apart a poke vote from a regular vote is that it exists for the sole reason of eliciting a response.

Okay, okay. So Drake, you ask, why bother bringing up some pointless debate of semantics? Where are you going with this?

Well, thing is. When one calls something a "poke vote" that feels a lot like an affectation meant to make the vote seem innocuous.

So what do we call something that is a vote without any real push behind it?

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Steeldancer responded, and I think the pandemonium only will be effective if I start it now.

I’m an eliminator! I’m going to be killed by N2 anyways, and I intend to go out in style for my first SE game. Thus, I’m going to take out the other elims with me by listing them off.

@Darkness_ was right, @StrikerEZ is an elim. Also, @BrightnessRadiant and @Straw are the remaining ones. I’ll die with disHonor. Let the pandemonium begin.

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Div lay down to sleep that night with a sore throat and a wary eye around him. It sure hadn’t been Jost that tried to poison him, which meant he had had friends. Or fellow killers, which didn’t always mean friends. Div had experienced that distinction himself. He pointedly tried to avoid thinking about Rodin these days.

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