TheMightyLopen

Mid-Range Game 25: Lowborn Intrigue

434 posts in this topic

i got one from brightnes too didnt get back in time to respond 
also mostly cos i dont wanna die i'll go with ... lets say striker ez

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1 minute ago, Manukos said:

i got one from brightnes too didnt get back in time to respond 
also mostly cos i dont wanna die i'll go with ... lets say striker ez

 

16 hours ago, TheMightyLopen said:

Striker was Assassinated! He was a Tough Unlucky Surgeon's Apprentice!

Rand:D

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1 minute ago, Manukos said:

i got one from brightnes too didnt get back in time to respond 

yeah, you just didn't want to talk to me..r00d xD haha just kidding :P

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can you explain  why you are voting for randuir senpai?

13 minutes ago, Arinian said:

 

Rand:D

oops , i guess i'll kick striker's corpse while i am at it , but then i'll go for the source of my paranoia , straw 

also yeah @BrightnessRadiant i dont want to talk to you , esspecialy after those ofensive things you said in your message , like your racism on poison , and how you dont like it


 

Edited by Manukos
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Just now, Manukos said:

also yeah @BrightnessRadiant i dont want to talk to you , esspecialy after those ofensive things you said in your message , like your racism on poison , and how you dont like it


 

poison has a race? xD xD

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2 minutes ago, BrightnessRadiant said:

poison has a race? xD xD

it sure does and your , ignorant and insensitive posts only serve to cement your position and facilitate other comments like that 

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1 minute ago, Manukos said:

it sure does and your , ignorant and insensitive posts only serve to cement your position and facilitate other comments like that 

rip xD

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Just noticed, no Merchants have died yet. Do you think we only get one of them?

I'm going to vote Manukos today.

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1 hour ago, Manukos said:

can you explain  why you are voting for randuir senpai?

Arin explained it reasonably well at the end of D4, I think. He's wrong, but his argument isn't too bad. If I remember right, the reasoning for it is two-fold. First, he suspected that my vote in C1 on Striker was meant as a way to distract from Joe and save him. This argument has slightly more weight now than it did then since we actually know Striker's alignment now, but I'd still like to note that I made that vote when Joe didn't seem to be in any danger yet.

The second part of his argument is that I've been playing it safe for most of this game, and haven't made any dangerous plays yet, or otherwise stuck my neck out. My counterarguments to that is that I don't really see anything I could have done differently that would have qualified as 'sticking my neck out'.

Anyway, if Arinian comes by, he can probably explain it better, or you could just take a look at the end of D4. 

43 minutes ago, Lemonelon said:

Just noticed, no Merchants have died yet. Do you think we only get one of them?

I don't think we've got more than one, and we might have none (or the merchant is inactive). The reason why I don't think we've got more than one is because this game lacks the usual counter-play against scanner-type roles, apart from day-poisoning which can be counteracted quite easily by checking en earlier scan the moment you hit an elim. Having more than one would make things really quite hard on the elims. The reason I think there might be none is that I haven't seen any evidence of a trust-group forming, which would usually be an indication that someone is out there clearing villagers and getting in contact with them. Maybe they're just really good at keeping hidden, though, or the elims have just managed to kill most of those that have been scanned and cleared.

Edit: just FYI, if I'm wrong and there is a trust-group of cleared villagers out there, don't speak up to inform the thread of this fact just because I'm wrong about thinking you don't exist. Just do your thing and remain hidden.

Edited by randuir
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I wanna do analysis but my brain isn't up to it and it's my bday so people are coming over tonight xD. Ughh I don't know if it's because I've been on meds and not focusing well this game, but I've been through the entire game thread at least twice for a full read through and I can't pin down any specific suspicions. xD I'm so annoyed at y'all for not being more suspicious haha.

I'll try and get up some good analysis sometime if I can, but I'm not sure I can promise it today. xD

I have been leaning Manukos or HH, but I can't shake the growing feeling that I'm wrong about Manu. Ugh. I've changed my mind so many times about people this game that I feel dizzy haha. If I don't get a chance to do analysis, I might still vote Manu later. I just have a feeling that there's an elim among the people I mentioned earlier and HH was one of them and already on my suspicions list. So, I might end up going HH.

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28 minutes ago, randuir said:

Arin explained it reasonably well at the end of D4, I think. He's wrong, but his argument isn't too bad. If I remember right, the reasoning for it is two-fold. First, he suspected that my vote in C1 on Striker was meant as a way to distract from Joe and save him. This argument has slightly more weight now than it did then since we actually know Striker's alignment now, but I'd still like to note that I made that vote when Joe didn't seem to be in any danger yet.

The second part of his argument is that I've been playing it safe for most of this game, and haven't made any dangerous plays yet, or otherwise stuck my neck out. My counterarguments to that is that I don't really see anything I could have done differently that would have qualified as 'sticking my neck out'.

Anyway, if Arinian comes by, he can probably explain it better, or you could just take a look at the end of D4. 

You explained everything pretty well, +gut read. I don't know what but something looks wrong in your posts. Maybe it's just me *shrug*, no offense?

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I will be voting on Manukos for repeatedly acting over suspicious and then blaming it on "PTSD".

Edited by Straw
Vote disappeared when I posted.
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Hmmmm...

I need to think about things. Striker threw me off a bit. Apologies if I don't share a ton of analysis right now. I will hopefully make up for it soon though...

I have absolutely zero read on Manukos. Not my first choice, but the lynch seems to be cemented already so I suppose I'll let that stand.

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Okay, let's see here. If the elims started out with about 4 players then we've only got 3 left and 9 villagers. Worst case scenario, if we lynch a villager today and one is killed tonight and the assassin ends up hitting a villager by mistake then that leaves us with 3 to 6. (also if the guardsmen is poisoned and tries to protect someone then that could lead to 3 to 5...I said worst case scenario okay xD.) So, we need to find another elim soon, and the guardsman needs to be careful about using their power. Also, please choose wisely assassin. I'm not saying that your choosing Striker was necessarily a bad thing tho, because a lot of players had been pushing for his death, and I think that'll provide more stuff to look at then if you'd killed some inactive. I mean, after all he was a good choice because he had already been up for the lynch and it failed.

There has to be at least one active elim putting in the kill orders, and I'm wondering if they killed Orlok because they were looking for the merchant role or another powerful one that hasn't been overly displayed and so they may have assumed it was an inactive who had that role. Plus, as a general rule as an elim, you want to go for someone who won't give the village a lot of info, or someone who isn't likely to be lynched by the village.

Like I said, I really wanna do some more analysis on individual players, but I'm not sure I feel up to it or will even have the time.

I think I'll go with Manukos for now because he's been active enough to put in kills, saying he doesn't trust Straw(who imo is one of the players I trust the most just because I don't see it being a very good idea to vote on a teammate when there's only one vote on him on day 1), and because I'm mostly working from a list of people I trust less as opposed to who I suspect more. heh

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This is probably going to be my only post today so I'll try to make it count.

First of all, BR sorry for not replying in time to your PM and have a very Happy Birthday.

Second, that exchange between Manukos and BR made me lol. 

Third, as dodgy as manukos is, my suspicions on Darkness are growing. If possible, could you explain your reasoning, if any, for why you are no longer after straw. Is he not as suspicous anymore? Or have you changed your mind for some other reason. As far as I could tell, he was your target for a few cycles and then nothing all of a sudden. Now if straw turns out be an elim, I know this will make me look bad as it seems that I'm defending him. Why I've brought this up again is because whilst reading through, I didn't find any posts where it shows you changing your mind about straw or maybe having doubts about your suspicions. And then the vote on manukos which has gained quite a bit of traction. It is probably our best lynch this cycle tbh but these are my thoughts right now.

Regarding Striker, what's the possibility of a poisoned guard trying to protect him? I don't know why they would do it but it just occurred to me. If it was the case, then the guard will know he's poisoned and so has a kill instead of a protect. I'm of the opinion that it was an Assassin, in which case they also know if they are poisoned or not. Another thing is that if there is any pattern or a systematic way of night kills, then more poisoned players will be from the ones alive than the ones that have died at night as it wouldn't make sense to poison and then kill the same people. But apart from guard, assassin and scanner, it wouldn't make a lot of difference to the game. So Randuir, the scanner is most likely inactive, as there would definitely have been some PMs going around a trusted group forming as the chance of poisoning the scanner are not extremely low but they are not very high either. In which case, there is still a result but just the wrong one. 

Edited by Megasif
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Day 5 is over! ...An hour late. Sorry about that. Was having a B-day party for BR and rollover just completely slipped my mind. Night 5 will be up soon.

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                                                                                                   Night 5

Bridge 11 had been assigned to Chasm duty. They explored the bottom near the recent battle, to see if anything could be recovered. 

Manukosokunam had just found a broam, and was feeling pretty good. They would get an extra bonus, to be spent on booze. But then he heard an ominous "SCRrrrAAPPPE" coming down the chasms. 

His heart chilled. Fear overtook him, as he stuffed the broam in a pocket and screamed, "CHASMFIEND!!!!"

The bridge crew ran for the ladders, which thankfully were not too far away. But the chasmfiend was fast. It trumpeted an awful noise, like screaming layered over screaming. 

The bridge crew scrambled up the ladders, but not everyone made it back up in time. They watched in horror as the chasmfiend ripped the man apart. Then they ran from the chasm edge, fleeing any possibility of being caught by the monster. 


Manukos was lynched! He was a Unlucky Unremarkable!

Vote tally:
Manukos(5): Darkness, Randuir, Lemonelon, Straw, BR
Rand(1): Arinian
Straw(2): Unremarkable, Manukos
Darkness(1): Megasif

PM's are open.

gre_1509764400.png

Player list:

Spoiler

1. Darkness (Nuatoma Akihiko)
2. Randuir (Tenodin)
3. Straw (An Explosive Gerbil)
4. Brightness Radiant (undecided)
5. Hemalurgic Headshot (Kurt Barnacles)
6. Jondesu (Div) 
Tough Unlucky Con Artist
7. Sami (Reddathan)
8. Roadwalker (Silver Feather) 
Unlucky Unremarkable
9. Drake Marshall (Pashul)
10. Lemonelon (Ellenie)
11. StrikerEZ (Ardenal) 
Tough Unlucky Surgeon's Apprentice
12. Walin (Nerkel) Unlucky Eavesdropper
13. Arinian (blank)
14. Sart (Mortago) 
Unlucky Worldsinger
15. Megasif (Kohl)
16. OrlokTsubodai (Locke Tekiel) 
Unlucky Eavesdropper
17. Manukos (manukosokunam) Unlucky Unremarkable
18. Eternum (Deral) Unlucky Con Artist
19. Shqueeves (Melb)
20. Joe in a Bush (Jost Joslin) 
Spy Eavesdropper

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@Megasif, Part of my push on Straw was to see how other people would react. BR and Manukos responded positively to it, BR in a distant manner and Manukos in a suspicious, bandwagony way.

If anything, you've been tunneling on me pretty much whole game as well :P 

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*Grumble* I'm running out of suspicions and neutral reads faster than we're running out of elims, which is problematic.

Also, whoever just tried to eavesdrop on me and BR, you've been poisoned.

More thoughts following later.

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39 minutes ago, randuir said:

Also, whoever just tried to eavesdrop on me and BR, you've been poisoned.

Guilty!

Sorry for that. Was hoping to finally get a hit on something good. 

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Okay, let's see. The people currently reasonably active are:

  • Randuir
  • Brightness
  • Lemon
  • Darkness
  • Megasif
  • Arinian
  • Straw
  • Drake

That leaves @Shqueeves, @Sami and @Hemalurgic_Headshot. are left on the less-active front.

Of the actives, I'm reasonably sure that BR is village. I've also have just had a PM conversation with Lemonelon which have caused me to revise my read on her, and I'm somewhat convinced she's village as well. Lastly, I'm still fairly certain that Straw is village based on his vote against Joe C1. So, ruling those players (and myself) out from the actives leaves:

  • Darkness
  • Megasif
  • Arinian
  • Drake

I'd been leaning village on Darkness before, but his sudden turn-around on Straw makes me wonder about him. It could easily be a genuine Stratagem, but it could just as easily be an elim move towards easier targets. It has to be said that Darkness could have gotten Straw on the bridge D4 but didn't, which lends some weight to his claim of it being a stratagem. Or, alternatively, it would indicate that Straw and Darkness are team-mates, but I don't think that is very likely.

My read on Megasif hasn't changed much since the last time I mentioned him. He remains sensible, but his comments still seem rather NAI.

If it hadn't been for the fact that Arinian had (correctly) assumed Striker's alignment in his accusation of me, I'd have listed him as certainly village as well. As it is, I'm not highly suspicious of him, but I'm keeping an eye on him just in case.

lastly, I've heard very little from Drake (had him with the inactives initially, but he did post yesterday). I'd like to think he'd be more active if he was evil, but that's not really proof of anything.

So, that leaves me with two neutral reads, and no real elim reads among the actives, which is a problem, to put it mildly. It might just indicate that there aren't all that many active elims left. It might be that I'm completely wrong about some of the people I marked as 'very likely village' as well. In that case Joe probably did decide to sacrifice himself to get a portion of the elim team trusted. Almost makes it worth it to lynch Straw, just so we can test that hypothesis (just FYI, I still think lynching straw is a bad idea).

Anyway, this game has me stymied worse than any other I've been in.

Actually, something I've just realized @TheMightyLopen, @Steeldancer, are you still enforcing the inactivity filter? And if so, does that mean that Sami has either given some warning of inactivity, or is in fact active in PM's (or a certain doc)?

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28 minutes ago, randuir said:

 

Actually, something I've just realized @TheMightyLopen, @Steeldancer, are you still enforcing the inactivity filter? And if so, does that mean that Sami has either given some warning of inactivity, or is in fact active in PM's (or a certain doc)?

Yes, the inactivity filter is still being enforced. I haven't been able to keep a close eye on things, because of my laptop problem, but I'm fairly certain no one has gone 2 cycles without posting in thread/a PM.

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Yeah, I have nothing on this game, primarily because I'm more invested in the LG and I haven't had a chance to read over the game and compose coherent thoughts on everything. I am genuinely suspicious of Straw, and knowing it is convoluted and people wouldn't be wanting a lynch like that, I hoped to get something from the responses and stuff garnered by my ideas.

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*grumbles I told myself not to vote on Manukos because I had a bad feeling about it xD. But, I needed to finally see the alignment of one of my suspicions xD. We finally had a regular lynch, you guys! :o Nooooow we need to keep it up, but not with another villager heh.

Personally I'm leaning Drake, HH, Sami...because all 3 were at least active in pms the last night cycle and someone was poisoned. So, I'd say one of them probably put in the kill. Also, Drake was active in pm and commented in the thread and normally elims don't like to put in kill actions if they're gonna be inactive completely because it's not really fair. So, yeppp I'm gonna try to take a closer look at Drake next cycle.

Edit: Hi rand xD I saw you reading the thread and I can't pm you lolol

Edited by BrightnessRadiant
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17 hours ago, Darkness_ said:

@Megasif, Part of my push on Straw was to see how other people would react. BR and Manukos responded positively to it, BR in a distant manner and Manukos in a suspicious, bandwagony way.

If anything, you've been tunneling on me pretty much whole game as well :P 

Yes, correct. I am kind of tunnelling you, I guess. That's why instead of asking why you were after straw, my question was why you left straw for the past cycle or two after such a hard push, which I'm mirroring to some extent now, actually. Your second post does explain a bit more. Like Randuir mentioned, whilst it is unlikely that Darkness and straw are elim together, if one turns out to be an elim then the other is pretty much a cleared villager. And if both are elim, then clearing the other is the only reason I can see of this straw/Darkness thing. However, after what happened with Joe in the beginning, I doubt the elims would be taking a risk like this.

Don't have many other reads apart from agreeing with BR that at least 1 or 2 of the elims could be in the inactives. 

 

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