TheMightyLopen

Mid-Range Game 25: Lowborn Intrigue

434 posts in this topic

@randuir yes I was PMing Joe N1, if I'm PMing someone I want to be able to trust them. So I asked if he was an elim on the condition that he tell the truth and if he was, we would have a ceasefire until D5 if we still remained. Which I think was a very good deal for an elim, but clearly he didn't trust me enough to tell the truth so I haven't had anymore PMs with other players. I'm quite a trusting person and will take things at face value until given reason to think otherwise. I'm glad he was lynched D1 though otherwise I would have been helping an elim without knowing. I know this all seems rather suspicious though. I haven't tried to conceal that conversation though and have added it to the thread to help with input. If anyone else was missing from that list he wrote they would be a good place to start looking for more elims. But then, perhaps he was trying to draw attention to the wrong people like myself. So many convoluted plots going on!!

And I was a "she" last time I checked...

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Guys, there's still 14 people alive, yet in 24 hours there's only been 10 posts, made by 6 people in total. @Orlok Tsubodai, @Hemalurgic_Headshot, @Sami, @StrikerEZ, @Arinian, @Shqueeves, @Straw, @Drake Marshall, if Real life allows it, please become more active.

@Darkness_, if you're feeling better now, could you explain your suspicion of Straw more, as you mentioned in our PM?

HH, I've been looking over Joe's list of people he PM'd again. Is it correct that he didn't PM you in nigh 0? And if so, do you know why he didn't when apparently he has contacted everyone else?

Also, does anyone have any idea why the Unremarkables would vote on Drake? I haven't noticed him doing anything suspicious, but I could be wrong.

Lastly, I'd like to point out that if no votes get added this cycle, there isn't going to be a lynch at all, so please get active everyone, and start voting. this isn't the time for all information to dry up.

Vote tally

Drake(1): unremarkable vote

Striker(1): Randuir

Edited by randuir
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I'm still not sure why everyone says I'm so suspicious, I gave a reason as to why I voted on Jondesu that first cycle, which was because I had no suspicions at the time and knew I wouldn't be able to get on later to vote, and I would've removed my vote later if I had been able to get on. I'm gonna vote on Drake as a poke vote, partly because he's been slightly inactive and partly because I don't want to put myself on the bridge. @Drake Marshall

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Okay, I'll vote Striker . Seems like a waste if no one is put at the front of a bridge run!!

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@randuir you’re right, Joe didn’t PM me. That is a little strange, maybe he forgot me? I wasn’t very active at all that first cycle, so perhaps I slipped under his radar? I don’t know.

As for the vote, I’m not sure. Having more people up lessens the chance of a particular person dying, but I’m not sure who. Rand, other than Jon, who is dead, is my most stable village read on account of his activity and sound analysis so far. Lemon seems a bit suspicious, and Striker too. Manukos is another suspicion of mine. I’ll vote in color when I get home, using the mobile, while it is possible, is a hassle and I can’t seem to get it right.

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 Something that I find suspicious is the amount of people suspicious of lemon yet she hasn't been voted on. Lemon  

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2 hours ago, randuir said:

Guys, there's still 14 people alive, yet in 24 hours there's only been 10 posts, made by 6 people in total. @Orlok Tsubodai, @Hemalurgic_Headshot, @Sami, @StrikerEZ, @Arinian, @Shqueeves, @Straw, @Drake Marshall, if Real life allows it, please become more active.

Thank you, my friend. I realize I haven't weighed in this cycle, yet. The activity level in this game is rather low, yes.

 

So. Let's analyze some things! Analyzing day 3, to be specific.

Post 1. Darkness expresses distate for Roadwalker and Walin's play. I for one strongly suspect that there were secret game mechanics in play, as I said previously. Darkness then proceeds to vote on Straw, citing earlier suspicions.

Post 2. Randuir posts reads. For some reason he neglects to give a read on me :( In any case he mostly accuses Lemon. By his own admission, there's tin foil in that theory. I am a little skeptical of it. Still, it's not a completely crazy theory.

Post 3. Arinian votes on Roadwalker. Given the insanity of elim claims, I guess it's hard to fault this.

Post 4. Jondesu follows suit. Alignment of Jondesu is known so no need to expand on this.

Post 5. Road votes on himself. I am confused by the suicidal elim claims.

Post 6. Megasif weighs in briefly. Says they "don't have many suspicions at the moment." Honestly I think that's a little questionable. Surely there are some basic reads that could be shared. I feel like this could be an attempt at staying under the radar.

Post 7. This is one of my posts. Y'alls can analyze it for yourself :D

Post 8. Randuir gives a vote tally. Explains that he isn't switching to Road. His explanation confuses me.

Post 9. Darkness gets around to explaining his suspicions of Straw. I'm glad he explained himself. I still don't agree, because I think it would have been very poor form for Straw to have voted on Joe that early if they were team mates. But I'm still glad Darkness gave an explanation.

Post 10. Brightness checks in. Is not following super closely. Don't really have a read on her.

...and that's the cycle, just about.

 

And also:

2 hours ago, StrikerEZ said:

I'm still not sure why everyone says I'm so suspicious, I gave a reason as to why I voted on Jondesu that first cycle, which was because I had no suspicions at the time and knew I wouldn't be able to get on later to vote, and I would've removed my vote later if I had been able to get on. I'm gonna vote on Drake as a poke vote, partly because he's been slightly inactive and partly because I don't want to put myself on the bridge. @Drake Marshall

Well. I'm not sure I really know how to respond to this. Perhaps you would explain your reasoning for this?

It seems mostly to be cast out of self defense. While you don't really bring it up, I am inclined to conclude that you chose to vote on me because I already had an unremarkable vote, and thus you can put me on a bridge with you. I will, by the way, note that I have certain reasons to at least suspect that the unremarkable vote(s) in question were cast by the eliminator team.

You also cite me being slightly inactive. I'm not sure I follow. I may not be keeping up to my normal standard of activity, but I don't think I've incurred a contribution crusade either.

Also, I would like to raise the objection that this isn't a poke vote, as per my previous definition of the term poke vote. This isn't really related though.

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hmm kinda dissapointed that there wasnt too much disscussion happening , especialy since this was a 48 h day 
i will go with straw 
and lets just hope that one of the forerunners of the bridge is an elim so that we might have some more info 

Edited by Manukos
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Hmmm... So I've posted some analysis. Now, I must decide who to vote for.

The choices that come to mind are Lemon, Megasif, and Striker.

 

Why would I vote for Lemon?

The only solid reason I can think of is that it would put another person on the bridge, and thus increase my odds of survival.

After some consideration, I don't personally find Lemon altogether very suspicious. Yes, that's mostly gut read. If I have time I will expand upon it more articulately.

In any case, I'm not going to vote on them.

 

Why would I vote for Megasif?

Well, pretty much because that one post last cycle gave me a bad vibe.

Honestly, I don't feel like I have enough information on this count. I need to do more analysis. Thus, my voting for Megasif will be suspended for the time being, until I can adequately compose my thoughts on the matter.

 

Why would I vote for Striker?

Well, there's the way he voted on the first cycle. I know that a villager might conceivably vote that way... But I would also be astounded if there was no attempt to save Joe from the lynch on the first day, because it kinda sucks to lose a team mate that early.

Secondly, I hold that his past votes could often be explained as self-preservation (this cycle's vote included...). I understand that self-preservation is legitimate for a villager. But an eliminator is unique in that they prioritize self-preservation above catching the elims.

Striker is definitely my most solid read. I apologize if I'm wrong about this... But I am also almost certain that I am not.

As Striker himself has said, I have not been as active as I would normally wish to be. As such, I would be happy to die if, in the act of it, I could take down a second eliminator. Striker.

 

I would request that we be careful about voting up too many people at once. As much as I'd rather not be lynched... The more people we vote up, the less likely the lynch is to actually succeed in killing who we want.

Edited by Drake Marshall
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On 30.10.2017 at 5:19 AM, TheMightyLopen said:

SPECIAL ANNOUNCEMENT - This Cycle we're doing things a little differently. Considering you really don't trust anyone, your normal schedule for who goes in the front of the bridge is up for debate. There's 5 empty spots at the front of the bridge, and you all need to decide who goes there when you charge the plateau where the gemheart, and more importantly for you, the Parshendi, are waiting. You can place anywhere from 1 to 5 players on the front as your lynch, but understand that the more crew members on the front, the better chance for each of the individuals to survive the charge. Also, it's a long way to the plateau, so you have 48 hours instead of 24. A player needs 2 votes on them to be placed at the front of the bridge. Have fun! :)

"You can place anywhere from 1 to 5 players on the front as your lynch". I'm little bit confused with wording of this part, is everyone can vote for maximum of 5 players? Or everyone who will get 2 or more votes will be lynched? Also players who will be choosen to go at the front of the bridge will be 100% lynched or with some random chance? Also as I understood everyone will have random chance to die which will depend on number of people who will go at the front?

Right now I will vote for Rand.

Quote

Okay. Falsely accusing someone and forcing a he-said, she-said situation backed up with a little bandwagon is a classic elim tactic...for the final cycle, not for C1. I honestly have some trouble seeing why elim!@A Joe in the Bush would do something this risky this early. It makes slightly more sense if this is an attempt by elim!Jondesu to try and save his hide, but even then there's plenty of holes in the story.

Has anyone else had any offers for a role-trade from either Joe or Jondesu?

We should remember that in this game elims can't use doc on day turns and so it's much harder for them to cooperate to protect one of them or etc. Also I want point on indirect attempt to defend Joe in Rand's post above.

Also after that he voted on Striker for being "bandwagony". I wanted to quote all his posts and say what suspicious in them but I decided that it would take too long. Mostly he talks about NAI things, why elims probably don't have vote manip, about Jon being villager after elims hit him, etc. It's usual for elims stating not dangerous truth and pointing on things like that. Of course he provided some suspicions on Striker and Lemon with basis, but I honestly don't agree with his conclusions atleast about Lemon, can't say what I think about Striker if he is elim it was too risky move. Anyway Striker is pretty easy target to accuse and Lemon was not very active so it's not much more dangerous for elim to accuse her.

Honestly I don't want to lynch Rand even if he most suspicious for me right now. He is good player and if I wrong  it will be bad to lose him. Maybe I should wait results of lynch on Striker and then decide what to think about Rand... I think I will keep my vote for now. 

 

 

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Okay, so I'm back to actually vote! Of the three I suspect, (Striker, Lemon, and Manukos), I think Striker is probably the most suspicious. It seems like he's trying to hide something by conforming.

Ninja'd by Arinian, who voted on Rand. Why? Why would you do that? I find that rather suspicious, because Rand is my strongest Village read. Arin.

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4 minutes ago, Hemalurgic_Headshot said:

Okay, so I'm back to actually vote! Of the three I suspect, (Striker, Lemon, and Manukos), I think Striker is probably the most suspicious. It seems like he's trying to hide something by conforming.

Ninja'd by Arinian, who voted on Rand. Why? Why would you do that? I find that rather suspicious, because Rand is my strongest Village read. Arin.

So you voting for me not for suspicion but just because our views on certain players not same? Or you have some other reasons that made you suspect me, can you explain? Or what makes you believe that Rand villager, quote this and explain, I will be grateful.

Also I  obviously explained why I suspect Rand if you want I can bring quotes from his posts.

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7 minutes ago, Arinian said:

We should remember that in this game elims can't use doc on day turns and so it's much harder for them to cooperate to protect one of them or etc. Also I want point on indirect attempt to defend Joe in Rand's post above.

Arin, I'd very much prefer it if you where to try to fully explain what made you suspicious of me anyway, even if it takes a bit of time. If not now, then in the coming night turn. Knowing the exact details makes it easier for others to judge your reasoning and makes it harder for the elims (if you aren't one yourself) to turn you into a martyr whose example should be followed by everyone because there isn't actually any evidence to question.

Also, maybe you should look at the full context of that post again you quoted again? At that moment I thought Jondesu had just said that he hadn't offered a role-swap to Joe at all, which just seemed really weird to me, however you looked at it. 

13 minutes ago, Arinian said:

Also after that he voted on Striker for being "bandwagony". I wanted to quote all his posts and say what suspicious in them but I decided that it would take too long. Mostly he talks about NAI things, why elims probably don't have vote manip, about Jon being villager after elims hit him, etc. It's usual for elims stating not dangerous truth and pointing on things like that. Of course he provided some suspicions on Striker and Lemon with basis, but I honestly don't agree with his conclusions atleast about Lemon, can't say what I think about Striker if he is elim it was too risky move. Anyway Striker is pretty easy target to accuse and Lemon was not very active so it's not much more dangerous for elim to accuse her.

It also seems like you're accusing me of not taking risks or sticking my neck out. Which is not entirely unreasonable, but until you accused me the same could be said about you(and about a bunch of other players). What exactly do you think I would/should have done differently this game?

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11 minutes ago, Arinian said:

So you voting for me not for suspicion but just because our views on certain players not same? Or you have some other reasons that made you suspect me, can you explain? Or what makes you believe that Rand villager, quote this and explain, I will be grateful.

Also I  obviously explained why I suspect Rand if you want I can bring quotes from his posts.

I feel that your accusations for Rand are not strong enough to be worthy vote causes, and that is suspicious. As for Rand being a Villager, it is mostly a gut read for the alignment, but he is a good player and is actively contributing to the conversation. I don't want to lose him.

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Okie Dokie, here we go. Just gonna go through the thread a bit and also just ramble out my thoughts.

First off, Striker doesn't seem very suspicious imo because I've played with him as an elim before and he was much more careful. I don't think he'd risk suspicion the way he did by voting on someone without a lot of reason to. He tended to try and stay out of the spotlight and if he couldn't make a good case for a lynch vote then he'd just say that he couldn't vote that cycle. At least, that's the way I think he'd play it, but I could be wrong. So, some of my feelings on Striker are from being friends with him, having worked with elim!Striker before, and just gut feeling I suppose. I'd only be in favor of lynching him so that I can look at the ones who voted on him depending on what his alignment flips. But, I have a feeling he'd flip village.
 

Lemon doesn't seem that suspicious to me either and she seems to gather a lot of suspicion in past games I've played with her too when she wasn't evil. To me, she just sounds like a frustrated villager at times. (I should really start a bunch of pms to talk to people soon) I don't know her play style extremely well yet since she's still relatively new, but I'd rather wait and pm her a bit or see her post some more before I really decide on her.
 

So, I wanna take a closer look at Drake, HH, and maybe Megasif. They all seem to be staying in a sorta middle ground area in my suspicion thoughts and that's the place I look for elims lol.

Drake I tend to get suspicious of a lot and I have no idea why xD. I haven't felt it terribly this game which makes me wonder if he's actually village, or hiding is elimness well lol. I hate to lynch the active players, but there's more to look at there. Hopefully, the inactives (including myself) can all find the time to be more active soon. Seeing how Drake and Straw both voted for Joe on cycle 1 when they could have voted for Jon or Striker instead, I'm kinda leaning village for that because it was just cycle one and I don't see elims doing this to a teammate unless it was planned from the start because Joe was gonna be busy irl or something. I don't know that I'd say that's what happened tho, so I'm still leaning village for it.

Ugh So, I went back through the thread again and I'd say that I'm leaning elim mostly on Megasif, Manukos, and Arinian because that's the only elim team that I could make any sense of and because each other player has something at some point that reads village to me and these 3 have stood out to me as slightly active and have all cast suspicion on different people who ended up flipping village or who I suspect are village.

So, lemme go back through their posts again and try to explain why xD. This is taking foreverrrrr lol. Just know that I've been looking at it and I'm gonna keep going, but y'all can look at this for now heh. I'll place my vote on Arinian for now. I can understand his being wary of Rand, but I personally wouldn't choose him as my first target unless I was an elim and wanted village!Rand gone.:P

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50 minutes ago, randuir said:

Arin, I'd very much prefer it if you where to try to fully explain what made you suspicious of me anyway, even if it takes a bit of time. If not now, then in the coming night turn. Knowing the exact details makes it easier for others to judge your reasoning and makes it harder for the elims (if you aren't one yourself) to turn you into a martyr whose example should be followed by everyone because there isn't actually any evidence to question.

Also, maybe you should look at the full context of that post again you quoted again? At that moment I thought Jondesu had just said that he hadn't offered a role-swap to Joe at all, which just seemed really weird to me, however you looked at it. 

It also seems like you're accusing me of not taking risks or sticking my neck out. Which is not entirely unreasonable, but until you accused me the same could be said about you(and about a bunch of other players). What exactly do you think I would/should have done differently this game?

Looks like you missed part with attempt to protect Joe and vote on Striker which can be interpreted as try to create other target for lynch. You right about part with not taking dangerous moves and you right that more players can be accused in it. But main part of players who "not sticked their necks out" is inactives or lurkers(including players who flying under radar) and no one would say that they have village read on them so lurkers and inactives is always in danger that they in one moment can become target for lynch. But you other category you posting many and so gathering many village reads, but I honestly don't see any impact from your posts in this game. You want from me to be more full in my explanations, okay.

Quote

My thoughts exactly.

There's a couple of things we can learn from this event. First off,  the elims probably don't have an active vote manipulator right now. If they had one then I can't see why they wouldn't have used that power to at least put Joe and Jondesu on an equal amount of votes. Of course, that doesn't mean they don't have one, as there's a couple of players currently not active, so if it suddenly starts to seem like the elims do have some form of vote manipulation going then we should look at who was not active over the last cycle.

Secondly, the Jondesu vote. I feel even more convinced that there was some sort of foul play going on there, which makes me even more suspicious of Striker. Walin also stands out because of his attempts to try and protect Joe. In particular, he said this which makes me wonder:

  Quote

The same guy who convinced me to not bluff as an eliminator made the point that every time a lynch happens C1, it never ends well. Why should we go through the ordeal of bandwagon lynching a random person, when statistically they turn out a villager? The evidence against everyone is weak enough to be explained as inattention or carelessness, not a Freudian slip.

From Joe's post we know that he was this guy. I can't remember where Joe stands on the C1 lynch discussion, so I can't judge if this comment seems out-of-character for him. What I'm most wondering about is why he said it if he is an elim and was fully intending on capitalizing on the D1 lynch. it makes me wonder whether Walin is using the fact that Joe supposedly said this to cover himself in case he can't stop the Joe lynch. It's a somewhat tenuous suspicion, and it isn't helped by the fact that the doc is apparently inaccessible during the day (so we know this wasn't a case of talking the doc). Still, if anyone knows where Joe stands normally in regard to C1 lynches, I'd appreciate it if you could share that info.

Talking about elims not having vote manip or inactivity of their vote manipulators. Second part strikes me as slightly elimy cause your suspiciouns based on something looks for me as scratch, sometimes it's hard for elims hard to write realistically looking suspicion, that how it looks for me.

Quote

Another piece I want to quickly post is a quick analysis of how the votes developed on C1.

Joe kicked things off with a vote on Jondesu, which was backed up by Straw and Striker. After that BR was the first to vote on Joe.

C1 Vote tally 1:

Joe: BR

Jondesu: Joe, Straw, Striker

The next important vote that happened was Joe retracting his vote on Jondesu. Straw was the next one to switch his vote from Jondesu to Joe, leading to the following situation:

C1 Vote tally 2:

Joe: BR, Straw

Jondesu: Striker

At this point, Joe is leading the vote, though only by the margin of a single vote. Drake quickly followed with another vote for Joe, which put him squarely ion the lead. Only at this point did Jondesu add in a vote on Joe. The final vote on him was made by Roadwalker, but he changed his mind again after Joe's defense. Finally, a couple fo minutes before turnover, Walin added last vote onto Jondesu.

C1 Vote tally 3:

Joe: BR, Straw, Drake, Jondesu

Jondesu: Striker, Walin

Now, lets see what we can learn from this order of events. BR was the first to vote on Joe,m and she made the vote in such a way that she could have backed off later if she wanted to. she didn't though. This suggests that she is likely village, as it is rare for one elim to be voting on another and keeping her vote there in a situation such as this. Straw was the one to put Joe in the lead by switching votes, so he's pretty much cleared in my mind, as that's the one vote an elim would almost never be making.

After that, we get Drake and Jondesu. Drake is also probably village as his vote solidified the vote on Joe, though it could be that at that point the elims had already given up on Joe. I doubt that though. The fourth and fifth votes are where traditionally the elims might be starting to add votes onto their own. Jondesu however has the advantage that it seemed like Joe wanted to get him lynched, and the elims would probably not fake such a move on C1, where it is very likely to result in either one of them getting lynched, so he's likely village as well.

NAI. Same as previous it's not hard to write how votes progressed and make conclusion that people who voted on elim is villagers.

Next post almost same. And next also. Next too NAI. And next! Wow!(You guys really want me to quote that all?) Than scratch about Lemon...

Quote

I haven't got much to add right now, and probably won't be on again until the end of the cycle. I'm not opposed to a Roadwalker lynch as there's definitely something going on with him. Vote tally for those curious.

Vote tally

Straw(1): Darkness

Lemon(1): Randuir

Roadwalker(3): Arinian, Jondesu, Roadwalker

Striker(1): Unremarkable mob

Edit: the Reason I'm not actually switching to Roadwalker is that I still feel that there's something going on With Lemon as well, so i want to leave the possibility for a switch to him open. Unless there's a large amount of vote manipulation that is about to be brought to bear Roadwalker's lynch is locked in right now so I don't think I need to add my vote there to prevent someone I think is innocent from getting lynched.

Vote tally and talking that he don't have nothing against Roadwalker's lynch. I mean BR blames me for lynches of villagers but as you can see Rand didn't have nothing against lynch on both Road or Walin. Also I blamed for flawed vote when Rand's reasoning for vote on Lemon was much weaker. Hmm... I would say that also NAI.

So what in fact what we have in the end, many post but without any solid thoughts in them on the other side we have something that can be interpreted as attempt to save elim(Joe) from lynch(Add this to why you not the same as other players who "not sticked their neck out").

42 minutes ago, Hemalurgic_Headshot said:

I feel that your accusations for Rand are not strong enough to be worthy vote causes, and that is suspicious. As for Rand being a Villager, it is mostly a gut read for the alignment, but he is a good player and is actively contributing to the conversation. I don't want to lose him.

So you still sure that he contributed many to conversation? To activity undoubtebly to discussion.. nahh... So in fact we have much more reasons for Rand to be elim than me and his accusations on his suspects much weaker.

And I surely as elim wouldn't try to attack with suspicions someone like Rand it's too risky. Of course maybe I'm just trying other plays to fool you but that IKYK.

 

 

Edited by Arinian
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Been reading through the past few cycles to get my thoughts in order. I haven't really been suspicious of Straw or striker as I find it a bit too early for elims to jump on a bandwagon at that stage. Randuir and BR are probably my most trusted villagers from the past few cycles because of BRs vote on Joe and the seemingly carefree posts she's been making. But then again, I seem to trust her almost every game and have been shocked a few times. So not going for 100% villager just yet, especially the post above probably makes me put her more neutral thank village but that would only be because of my reaction to her suspicion on me. Otherwise, I can't really find any reasons of seeing her as an elim.

Randuir because he has been actively trying to solve the game which is a villagery mindset.That's why I find it odd to see Arinian's suspicions on Randuir. It could, however, be a villager thinking about Randuirs previous games as a village and how similar he is playing this game. This has made me think he's village and could be done by elim!Randuir to get be seen as a village. I don't think this is the case right now though, hence the village read on Randuir. Not going to jump the gun with Arinian just yet. I want to see Arinians answer to Randuir first.

One thing that has me a bit wary is the back and forth between Darkness and Straw and how that has almost faded into the background. I can't see both of them as elims as Darkness was really going at Straw, but I can see one of them as an elim. Despite my thinking of straw as village initially, I am a bit more skeptical about this read but currently more suspicious of Darkness for pushing this. Mostly because Darkness' only reason was Straw's vote on Jondesu in the beginning which was the entire reason for my read of straw as village. So for now, Darkness.

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Just now, Megasif said:

Randuir because he has been actively trying to solve the game which is a villagery mindset.That's why I find it odd to see Arinian's suspicions on Randuir. It could, however, be a villager thinking about Randuirs previous games as a village and how similar he is playing this game. This has made me think he's village and could be done by elim!Randuir to get be seen as a village. I don't think this is the case right now though, hence the village read on Randuir. Not going to jump the gun with Arinian just yet. I want to see Arinians answer to Randuir first.

I already answered look above.

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Ah yes, just reading now.

Edit:

I can kinda see where Arinian is coming with this. It's in line with my image of an elim!Rand. My biggest reason for village rand is him urging players to be active. That could be done for show, but it would just unnecessarily risk elim advantage. Witht the way the game has been progressing so far, I think as an elim, Rand could easily let the village fall apart with just a little more inactivity. So I could agree with Arinian on some of those points about the posts not doing a whole lot, but it did further the game in a better way rather than everyone losing interest and not bothering to come on because no one cares anyway. I know I'm going off on a bit of a tangent but thats whats coming to my mind. Now this isn't me saying Randuir is definitely a villager but merely my reasoning.

In Arinian's case, I think it'd be really hard to fake that reasoning in the above post, as there isn't really an accusatory tone in there but more of one thing really standing out in the game which is similar for me most times rather than having reads for everyone. So on a neutral ground with these two for now. Why does it feel like I'm mediating between these two.

Edited by Megasif
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@Arinian, I'll go through your entire post tomorrow if I'm still alive as right now I'm not awake enough to be certain I'll be entirely coherent.

However, I'm getting that the main point is that I'm sticking to stating things you believe are obvious. And yet what do you think I should have been doing instead? Should I have been sitting  around silently, saying nothing, assuming others where also all drawing the same conclusions I did? My discussions with Darkness and Manukos certainly point out that my conclusion about straw's likely village-hood isn't shared bye everyone, and therefore isn't as low-risk a statement as you seem to think it was.

Your other conclusion seems to be that just about everything I said was NAI. How exactly does that swing to me being an elim? Is it just the fact that I haven't caught any elims yet? Because the same goes for anyone that wasn't part of the Joe lynch in C1.

Another argument you present is that I voted on Striker in C1, which could have been an attempt to save Joe. Ignoring for a moment that I made that vote before Joe started accruing a vote lead for the moment, there's another fault in this argument. Last time I checked, we don't know Striker's alignment yet. For all we know, he is another elim, which would invalidate that argument. This is, in fact, another good reason to lynch him, so we can either put this argument to rest, or look at it with actual knowledge, rather than speculation.

With the exception of the fact that he's willing to assume Striker's alignment as an important part of his arguments against me, I don't think Arinian's vote on me is proof of him being an elim. If he is an elim, he'd know that I'd flip village, and that he'd likely be under increased scrutiny afterwards, so it would be far safer to just use the elim-kill on me. So @BrightnessRadiant, @Hemalurgic_Headshot, if your only reason for voting Arinian is that he's voted for me, would you maybe be willing to reconsider that vote? If you've got other reasons as well, then go right ahead, but if that's the only reason than I'm not sure how valid that argument is.

Edited by randuir
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3 minutes ago, randuir said:

@Arinian, I'll go through your entire post tomorrow if I'm still alive as right now I'm not awake enough to be certain I'll be entirely coherent.

However, I'm getting that the main point is that I'm sticking to stating things you believe are obvious. And yet what do you think I should have been doing instead? Should I have been sitting  around silently, saying nothing, assuming others where also all drawing the same conclusions I did? My discussions with Darkness and Manukos certainly point out that my conclusion about straw's likely village-hood isn't shared bye everyone, and therefore isn't as low-risk a statement as you seem to think it was.

Your other conclusion seems to be that just about everything I said was NAI. How exactly does that swing to me being an elim? Is it just the fact that I haven't caught any elims yet? Because the same goes for anyone that wasn't part of the Joe lynch in C1.

Another argument you present is that I voted on Striker in C1, which could have been an attempt to save Joe. Ignoring for a moment that I made that vote before Joe started accruing a vote lead for the moment, there's another fault in this argument. Last time I checked, we don't know Striker's alignment yet. For all we know, he is another elim, which would invalidate that argument. This is, in fact, another good reason to lynch him, so we can either put this argument to rest, or look at it with actual knowledge, rather than speculation.

With the exception of the fact that he's willing to assume Striker's alignment as an important part of his arguments against me, I don't think Arinian's vote on me is proof of him being an elim. If he is an elim, he'd know that I'd flip village, and that he'd likely be under increased scrutiny afterwards, so it would be far safer to just use the elim-kill on me. So @BrightnessRadiant, @Hemalurgic_Headshot, if your only reason for voting Arinian is that he's voted for me, would you maybe be willing to reconsider that vote? If you've got other reasons as well, then go right ahead, but if that's the only reason than I'm not sure how valid that argument is.

Ahh.. do what you want I still think you elim Rand.

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1 hour ago, Arinian said:

"You can place anywhere from 1 to 5 players on the front as your lynch". I'm little bit confused with wording of this part, is everyone can vote for maximum of 5 players? Or everyone who will get 2 or more votes will be lynched? Also players who will be choosen to go at the front of the bridge will be 100% lynched or with some random chance? Also as I understood everyone will have random chance to die which will depend on number of people who will go at the front?

 

Everyone still only has one vote, but up to 5 players can be lynched. The players put at the front of the bridge will have a chance to survive. A fair chance if there's 5 and almost no chance if there's only 1. Only those put at the front of the bridge are at risk of dying.

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Ooooo nice...people being active xD. I'm glad it's the people I listed as suspicious. Thank you for coming on to defend yourselves because it helps me as I still need a lot more posts to analyze. It's hard to find strong suspicions when this game has been so quiet. I want to do more analysis, but I'm gonna be busy soon and not have much time again until late tomorrow night. For now, I'm trying to figure out why elim!Arinian would go after Rand since so many people seem to trust him. That does make me second guess myself the more I think through it. Ugh xD aaaand ninja'd my Rand heh. I'm still suspicious of Arinian for some other reason, but his vote on Rand is making me reconsider because it does seem to risky.

@Megasif I'm glad you think I'm village, but yeah people say that sometimes when I'm an elim too. :P The thing is...I did something that I've not done often and made little notes on a piece of paper(actual paper xD) for who I thought could possibly be an elim for each individual cycle and you were on the possible elim list on every cycle xD. I dunno, I'm having trouble sorting through this today so sorry if I sound like I keep changing my mind so much xD. I could see you being village if Darkness is an elim because you expressed suspicion of him early on. And come to think of it, I've been wondering about him a little the more I read through everything because he's pushing very hard for Straw's lynch and I don't really understand his reasons. 

I think for now, I'll go with either Darkness or Manukos because they're on my list still and I think I'd get some good info to look back on from their posts if I can see their alignment. What's the vote like rn. hmmm. I'd do a vote tally but I gotta go for dinner. For now Manukos. I'm not sure how active I'll be from here on out until next day cycle. Byeeee.

Edit: okay, back from dinner and I gotta leave in a minute to go to my sister's house, but I feel like I did a lot of reading today and barely any analysis to show for it and I'm having trouble focusing today for some reason and just felt like I was rambling. I'm probably not gonna be on much in the night cycle so I wanna give my list of what I think about everyone in case I die lol.

Possible elim:

1. Manukos

2. Darkness

3. Megasif

4. HH

5. Arinian

Possible village:

1. Rand

2. Straw

3. Drake

The rest are just on an in between list for now. Okay now I'm actually leaving xD.

Edited by BrightnessRadiant
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