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17 hours ago, Amanuensis said:

Guess I'll kick this off. @Wyrmhero, just to confirm, if we lynch no one today, the Traitors won't automatically win, correct? Just asking because this wording is ambiguous enough to make me worry:

If so, I'm going to advocate a No Lynch. With only the Seer right now, there's a 96% chance of us killing an innocent, who could very well be an asset for the Obligators later. I would say we should use this day to find allies and network information while the Tineye(s) are still around, but there's an obvious risk of anyone being turned evil, so caution may be best. In the end though, it's your decision.

Personally? Instead of playing the boring, safe route, I'm going to announce that anyone who contacts me in PM and reveals their role to me will get mine in return. Or if it makes you more comfortable, ask me to reveal it first. The only condition is this: I will never share the role of another player, and I expect you to do me the same courtesy. Sound fair?

Oh. And just so the Seer doesn't get the bright idea of converting me for information, let's agree to lynch me on... D3. That should be enough time to accomplish my goal.

I agree with Orlok. I am strongly opposed to the sharing info, then killing Aman D3 plan. If the seer knew that there was a person with most of the info, they wouldn't care if they stayed alive. They'd convert C2, get the info, and watch him be killed C3.

Share info if you want, but don't publicly announce that you're collecting info. It just paints a target on your head for the seer to convert you.

Anyways, those are my thoughts. I'm voting on Doc12, because he's an interesting person.

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This thread seems really dead compared to other recent games. Can someone ping everybody who hasn't posted yet? I'd do it, but I'm on mobile.

EDIT: regardless of if we want to give Aman info, should we still lynch him D3?

Edited by Arraenae
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I plan to do some RP this game, since LGs are well suited to that, but for now I just wanted to chime in and agree with the No Lynch.  There’s been other games when I’ve advocated for that, usually in similar cases where the odds of hitting a villager were ridiculously high compared to an average game. I think this game is a good one to try that approach, but I do want to say that everyone should chime in on that debate. That discussion will be just as valuable as any lynch could be.

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3 hours ago, Arraenae said:

EDIT: regardless of if we want to give Aman info, should we still lynch him D3?

Yes. We can not operate under the idea that no one has given Aman information, especially if he is the seer. If only a few people were to send him their roles and he were to convert them then it would still seem that he has not done gained any information, but, in reality, he would have. 

We may even want to lynch him earlier...

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6 minutes ago, Frozen Mint said:

@Seonid @Araris Valerian @Darkness Ascendant @little wilson @Sart @Paranoid King @DarianHammersmith @Davus Care to chime in?

 

And a special shout out to @Doc12 because he should know that he's been voted on. :P 

...ninjaed. I was going to summon all of those people. :( I even made a nice list and was about to check who had and hadn't posted.

Just now, little wilson said:

Paranoid King.

Care to explain your vote?

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1 minute ago, little wilson said:

Sure. I have a strong feeling he hates pandas.

Could be. Pandas are expensive!

Anyways, I've been thinking it over, and I really dislike Aman's plan to have people reveal to him. Even if he's a villager this cycle, he'd be converted by the seer next cycle, and all that info will be going to the seer. If he's a seer, it's even worse, because his plan to be killed C3 means that people will put off killing him until he's got all his converts out. His plans usually seem better thought-out than this. Either he's already the seer, or he's a villager that's actively trying to deliver info to the seer. Either way, I'm all for lynching Aman this cycle, not C3.

Panda's aren't actually that expensive. Doc.

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I'm going to echo what Orlok said; players becoming information hubs doesn't seem like a great plan for the village. In particular, with multiple players offering to make such trades, it would be somewhat easy for the Seer to pick one and get lots of free info. I think that if we really have to role swap, people could wait until some conversions have happened. My personal opinion is to never give up my role unless I need to in order to have a chance at winning, or if the person I'm telling is confirmed good (like if I lurch someone, they get attacked, and didn't know beforehand about my protection). This isn't either of those situations. I'm going to vote on Joe for supporting the information trade.

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"God has truly blessed us this day. A chance to root out an unholy skaa in the name of High Prelan! Oh blessed be the Lord Ruler!" cried Sart, his religious fervor echoing the room. Already they began to turn on one another, happy to serve their God.

I'm not sure how active I will be in this game. Midterms are next-week for me, so don't expect a whole lot of activity.

As to the lynch today, we're at a disadvantage. No lynch results in no information, which can be a problem as the game goes on. However, killing someone with only a 4% chance of getting it right is less than appealing. To mitigate this, I propose we embark on a Contribution Crusade, at least for the first cycle.

My logic goes like this. If the Eliminator is usually active, they will continue to be active to keep up appearances. Active players tend to garner more suspicion, so we will lynch more active players than inactive players as the game goes on. In other words, we are likely to catch the Seer in later cycles if they are active. In addition, active players are more likely to be converted, as the Seer wants teammates that can support them as the game goes on. Thus, we'll gravitate towards lynching active players.

If the Eliminator is inactive, or has a more passive play-style, they will try to blend into the shadows. Discussion would hopefully pass by them, while they continue to convert more and more players to their side. However, as the game goes on, more active players may be converted, so lynching players who have started acting suspicious is a valid part of the strategy. We become dis-incentivized to vote for players that are off the radar, as we are less likely to find an eliminator.

My point is, we are going to start lynching more active players as the game goes on. To increase our chance at finding the Seer over the long haul, we should vote for players that haven't been active. The worse case scenario is we lynch someone who wouldn't be active in the first place, and thus wouldn't help our chances anyway.

Other than the two new players, the only person who hasn't posted yet is Doc12. If I was GMing, I wouldn't have the new players be the conversion role, as it is a lot of responsibility, and there's no guarantee they will be active. However, Doc12 has been active on the Shard, so it would make sense to let him keep the Seer role. In addition, he already has a vote on him, which makes this crusade much more effective. Poke votes are nice, but we need to back up our threats.

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1 hour ago, Arraenae said:

I feel like there's no real advantage to the village for having a hub of information for roles. Knowing a soon-to-be-dead player's role isn't a lot of incentive to trade info.

@Wyrmhero, can Seekers scan for the Seer?

Yes, but only if they have one or more beads of atium left to spend. When all their conversions/lives are used, they appear as powerless to scans. Scans do not detect Alignment in this game, only Roles.

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Gah. I'll switch my vote to Aman for now. Striker. I'll try to get on before the turn ends tomorrow, but I don't know if I'll be able to.

5 hours ago, Araris Valerian said:

I'm going to vote on Joe for supporting the information trade.

Any reason you're going for Joe and not one of the others?

Edited by Frozen Mint
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5 hours ago, Sart said:

Other than the two new players, the only person who hasn't posted yet is Doc12. If I was GMing, I wouldn't have the new players be the conversion role, as it is a lot of responsibility, and there's no guarantee they will be active. However, Doc12 has been active on the Shard, so it would make sense to let him keep the Seer role. In addition, he already has a vote on him, which makes this crusade much more effective. Poke votes are nice, but we need to back up our threats.

Well nice to see I've been missed :P I have posted in the other game I'm in, but I've had a crazy weekend full of homework, and am currently stealing time off that to participate in this game as a favor to a friend. 

So...why exactly am I being targeted? I know you want someone to vote on, but your reasons are really, really flimsy. You say that the Seer role should be given to an experienced player. I remind you of LG2 where the Inquisitor role was given to a new player. Besides, there are many players here who precede me in experience and reputation, so why would I be picked out? Other than the reason that there's already a vote for me, which... is really not much of a reason other than that you really want to see someone dead fast. Poke votes are nice, sure, and you say you want to back up your threats. What is your threat? We said we were going to kill someone, so we're going to? 

The lynch is not simply a mechanism for killing people, it's for generating information, and killing someone just because is a horrible reason to vote. I'm currently torn between Aman and Orlok's arguments. If you must poke vote someone, I suggest changing the tone of your threat. Instead of we need to kill someone because we should back up our threat, actually try to generate information by asking a question? Lynches make a player talk, make him reveal connections to other players or their views on the game, and that's what is important. 

On ‎10‎/‎8‎/‎2017 at 5:50 PM, Amanuensis said:

It may not decrease fast, but with a single eliminator, pursuing a lynch gets them closer to their win condition without having them having to make any effort, except in the unlikely chance they get lynched today. In which case they would survive anyway, claim Thug, and we'd have to shoot them with a coin and/or lynch them the next day. If they die then, that means they only converted one other person, and this game continues to be a case of finding a needle in a haystack. Personally, I would much rather let the Seer recruit at least two players before we really start hunting them, that way whoever is still alive can look for connections, slips, lies, etc, to narrow down the whole crew. I'm also of the opinion that discussion isn't very helpful when 24 of 25 people are the same alignment. Most "suspicions" people get today aren't going to be well-founded or accurate, let alone get anyone anywhere expect for the enemy.

On ‎10‎/‎8‎/‎2017 at 6:11 PM, Orlok Tsubodai said:

Whilst actually lynching players may not be useful, creating discussion through fear of a lynch is, and I'd argue that the loss of one or two players in order to encourage discussion is a worthwhile trade. Players' views, and how they evolve or are adhered to through the game seems to me to be the most effective way of finding eliminators, and I think that creating an incentive to discuss through using the lynch is a sensible measure to increase discussion.

I agree with Aman that currently the lynch is pretty much useless for finding an eliminator, or for revealing connections. Seriously, our chances to hit the eliminator are low, and the thug claim would come out anyway. Ask a player what they feel about another player? Of course those feelings are going to change, it's a conversion game, and it's day 1. There is a very high chance that we'll hit a villager, and the Seer would thank us for making his job one step easier. 

However, Orlok has a good point in that making a player state their views on the game. I would like to ask what kind of views he is searching for, however. Today has already been good for bringing out different player's views of a day one lynch. What other information do you seek to find by advocating a lynch today?

After considering, I am abstaining from a vote today. 

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7 hours ago, Araris Valerian said:

I'm going to echo what Orlok said; players becoming information hubs doesn't seem like a great plan for the village. In particular, with multiple players offering to make such trades, it would be somewhat easy for the Seer to pick one and get lots of free info. I think that if we really have to role swap, people could wait until some conversions have happened. My personal opinion is to never give up my role unless I need to in order to have a chance at winning, or if the person I'm telling is confirmed good (like if I lurch someone, they get attacked, and didn't know beforehand about my protection). This isn't either of those situations. I'm going to vote on Joe for supporting the information trade.

Eh, not a bad reason to vote for me. Not really anyway i can defend myself against the vote, and i don't think the Seer will really be that active in voting for a player this early, so i'm basically goong to ignore this vote.

Haven't really had any thoughts on anything else. One person knows my role so far, though Rae just pm'd me so it might be two soon.

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I just want to say that there is a good reason (technically two) for Aman to want to gain information this way, and for why he wants to die D3. If you really wanna know specifics, you can PM him yourself (he'll probably tell you why without a role claim, but don't take my word for it). I'm vouching for Aman right now, and I agree with his no lynch policy for this first night. If we lynch someone tonight, we gain almost no information, plus, I'd really hate to get the Seer's extra life so quickly, because where's the fun in that? If we did manage to lynch the Seer D1, they'd survive, they'd claim pewter, and they'd have a convert out there. Waiting till D2 will give us more information, based on what happens this first night. We'll be able to see if anyone was attacked (i haven't read rules in awhile, how do the Coinshots work in this game?), and we could try and see who is acting differently than the first cycle.

I haven't done a vote tally, but I would urge those who have voted on Aman to reconsider retracting their votes and not voting at all. If you're so adamant on lynching someone, lynch me. It'd help the Seer just as much as lynching Aman would.

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On 10/8/2017 at 7:43 PM, A Joe in the Bush said:

This definetely doesn't remind me of Evil!Joe doing this same thing in the Death Note game. Nope. Not at all.

That was essentially my reaction as well. >> 

On 10/8/2017 at 8:14 PM, Arraenae said:

I think holding off on the lynch for a day is a good idea because of what happened in QF25. There were two elims that game, and every single lynch kept hitting a villager, until an elim was lynched, but that was the jester and ended the game. Right now, we only have one elim, which is even harder to catch because there's no elim connections at all. Personally, I'd rather wait until there was something to go off of.

...I don't really understand how this relates to QF25. Or rather, if you want to wait for something to go off of, what would you have advocated in QF25, then, or a similar game where the fact that there were only two eliminators was publicly known? Would you advocate never lynching, because there aren't any connections to go off of, or only one? Why is that a good strategy? 

On 10/8/2017 at 9:09 PM, DroughtBringer said:

Well I am here, and I am liking the idea of No-lynch pretty well right now, as I've always felt bad lynching someone on D1 because it essentially kicks them out of the game before they get a chance to play it. In this game we have a pretty decent reason not to lynch them so I think that we should take it to be nice to everyone :P

This is almost always the main argument for no lynch, I'll note. It's not fair to the person who dies. Which is true, yes. But you don't see the eliminators abstaining from their N1 kill just because it's "not fair". What's the difference? That's an honest question - where does the different lie between a C1 kill and a C1 lynch to make one seem more "fair" than the other? 

On 10/9/2017 at 8:55 AM, Seonid said:

On more immediate game related stuff, I'm...ok with not lynching anyone today?  Ish?  It's kind of a tough situation.  If we don't lynch, we lose out on information.  If we do, our chances of actually finding one are laughably low, and since all but one of us are good, there isn't much info to actually be gained, and we may well muddy the waters more than we gain useful intelligence.

I'd point out again what Orlok/I both pointed out near the bottom of page 1 - the info we gain is a baseline of how players are acting in this game, so that we can look for changes if they're converted. 

On 10/9/2017 at 0:23 PM, Arraenae said:

This thread seems really dead compared to other recent games. Can someone ping everybody who hasn't posted yet? I'd do it, but I'm on mobile.

EDIT: regardless of if we want to give Aman info, should we still lynch him D3?

Does it? >> It does not seem so to me. 

Yes. Well... yes. Even if he hadn't proposed this plan he'd likely have had to die eventually - maybe D5 or so? But given that it's uncertain how much information he is receiving, we can't assume that the Seer hasn't converted him. 

15 hours ago, Doc12 said:

So...why exactly am I being targeted? I know you want someone to vote on, but your reasons are really, really flimsy. You say that the Seer role should be given to an experienced player. I remind you of LG2 where the Inquisitor role was given to a new player. Besides, there are many players here who precede me in experience and reputation, so why would I be picked out? Other than the reason that there's already a vote for me, which... is really not much of a reason other than that you really want to see someone dead fast. Poke votes are nice, sure, and you say you want to back up your threats. What is your threat? We said we were going to kill someone, so we're going to? 

Wrong on pretty much all counts, actually. :P 
1. LG2, the Inquisitor role was given to a new player a. because that player was fRR, who came up with the idea for the game and is the only reason SE was started up again, and b. because 14 out of the 29 players were new because it was the second game ever. :P 
2. Sart's not saying it should be a particularly experienced player, just that it shouldn't be someone brand new because you can't have any idea how active those players will be. He was eliminating people from the shortlist of players-who-hadn't-posted. Of those four(?), two are inactive, and of the remainder you already have a vote and are likely to lead to a lynch. Which, by Sart's argument, is good, because we're unlikely to lynch inactives later in the game. 

I'll note, by the way, that Sart's argument for a CC is possibly the best reasoning I've ever heard for one, though I'd respond with two points - 1. a Coinshot is entirely capable of carrying out the CC later in the game, and 2. so long as we have open PMs, we can carry out the other version of the CC that started in the last AG, with PMing inactives instead of lynching them. 

I'm very slightly more suspicious of you now, Doc, though I think it more likely that you only skimmed Sart's post and that your response is inaccurate because of that. 

9 hours ago, StrikerEZ said:

I haven't done a vote tally, but I would urge those who have voted on Aman to reconsider retracting their votes and not voting at all. If you're so adamant on lynching someone, lynch me. It'd help the Seer just as much as lynching Aman would.

With all due respect, no, it wouldn't. Aman (if he isn't the Seer) is a major benefit to the village until he gets converted, and lynching him today if he's village would help the Seer immensely. (This is counterbalanced slightly by the fact that his conversion could help the Seer significantly.) Your presence as a villager, given past games, is far less likely to drive discussion in the way that Aman does, though seeing that change would be lovely; and thus your lynch is far less hurtful to the village. 

Speaking of your whole "I'm willing to trade info" thing - yours, and Shqueeves', and Joe's. The only reason there was any logic behind making Aman an information hub is because he explicitly plans to lynch himself D3 (which isn't quite logical because he can still be converted before then, but makes more sense than the rest of the proposals nevertheless). The three of you made no such similar claims, so that if people actually do trade info with you, the Seer has absolutely no reason not to convert you. So, why exactly is publicly announcing as you have a good idea, other than painting an enormous target on your back for both the Seer and later lynches? >>

From memory, there are two votes on Doc and two on Aman, and an hour left in the cycle? I'm... I think I'm fine with either of those, actually. Not pleased about them, but I'm not sure who I'd actually be happy to lynch, and I don't feel strongly enough to vote this close to the cycle end. So I think I'll leave things as is and go back to studying for midterms. I expect this posting level will keep up until about next Monday - generally one multiquote a day keeping up on what I've missed, and not really following the cycle except when I come on to post. 

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Darian surveyed the room. The more senior Obligators had risen up in arms, fingers pointing and teeth gnashing as they debated the next course of action. Others veiled themselves in sullen silence as they brooded, watchful eyes absorbing the scene just as Darian was. The traitor could be in either group. This person, this skaa, could equally likely be protesting and bluffing as slinking into the shadows. Darian sighed and rubbed his forehead. It could be any of them. There could be no trust, nor any sign of weakness. The horrible thought crossed his mind that if the skaa was not discovered soon, none of them might survive this.

The voices whispered to him.

"Be patient. Soon they will reveal themselves. And that will be the time to strike."

Darian smiled. Yes, though many things will come to pass, the Lord Ruler watches over us all. All is of his making.

And so Darian obeyed the voices without question.

As he had always done.

 

Hello everyone! Sorry I haven't been active so far, I was rather ill yesterday and this morning but will make an effort to be more involved.

As this is my first SE game, all this talk of lynch or no lynch has been interesting, but I'm afraid I have very little to contribute.

Seeing as we have next to no information so far on who's who (unless people have been PM'ing but I haven't had time to do that myself), any vote I make will be a shot in the dark. Thus, I think I will go for No Lynch and see what happens. But I will plan to be more bloodthirsty on D2!

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22 minutes ago, Elbereth said:

With all due respect, no, it wouldn't. Aman (if he isn't the Seer) is a major benefit to the village until he gets converted, and lynching him today if he's village would help the Seer immensely. (This is counterbalanced slightly by the fact that his conversion could help the Seer significantly.) Your presence as a villager, given past games, is far less likely to drive discussion in the way that Aman does, though seeing that change would be lovely; and thus your lynch is far less hurtful to the village. 

Speaking of your whole "I'm willing to trade info" thing - yours, and Shqueeves', and Joe's. The only reason there was any logic behind making Aman an information hub is because he explicitly plans to lynch himself D3 (which isn't quite logical because he can still be converted before then, but makes more sense than the rest of the proposals nevertheless). The three of you made no such similar claims, so that if people actually do trade info with you, the Seer has absolutely no reason not to convert you. So, why exactly is publicly announcing as you have a good idea, other than painting an enormous target on your back for both the Seer and later lynches? >>

From memory, there are two votes on Doc and two on Aman, and an hour left in the cycle? I'm... I think I'm fine with either of those, actually. Not pleased about them, but I'm not sure who I'd actually be happy to lynch, and I don't feel strongly enough to vote this close to the cycle end. So I think I'll leave things as is and go back to studying for midterms. I expect this posting level will keep up until about next Monday - generally one multiquote a day keeping up on what I've missed, and not really following the cycle except when I come on to post. 

Yeah, you do have a point about our usefulness to the village. I've tended to be a lurker in my past games, with only occasional posts and promises of analysis that never comes. :P

I will say that the only people that have taken up my offer are only those that offered the same thing as well. Not all of them (though you can guess one of them), but most of them. I'm not really surprised that's the case, because you do have a point that it doesn't really serve the village anything at this point. I honestly wouldn't mind being lynched next cycle, if you really think it's dangerous for me to try to become a hub of information. I would try to come up with a code word for if I was converted, so you don't know whether to lynch me or not, but that'd be useless. It'd just be a huge IKYK. 

I'm glad that it needed up being a tie. I really don't think a lynch this cycle is smart at all.

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Quintus examined the Canton of Inquisition carefully. He'd joined the ranks by molding his appearance to that of an Obligator, with low-ranking but sufficient tattoo marks, after some study.  He'd come to Scadrial months prior, intending to study the local culture and religions, and since the only real religion was The Lord Ruler's, he had decided to join one of the Cantons to learn more.  He'd not intended to become involved in any of the more violent segments, but it appeared his hand might have been forced now.  He wasn't Skaa, nor was he willing to work with a failed cause like that, as a scholar.  But he also didn't really want to kill anyone who might be a Skaa, or working with them, even if it became necessary.  He'd have to figure out a good way around that if the situation arose.

Around him, the Obligators had begun to split into groups, divided by existing friendships and rivalries as well as opinions.  Gaskon Renaud quickly offered to help consolidate information, though with the unusual twist of promising to commit suicide to protect the information later.  It seemed like an insufficient promise, and Quintus doubted that anyone could take such a plan seriously. Variel and Joe quickly joined in with similar suggestions, however, which struck him as a suspicious thing to do.

Others opposed those plans, or chose to stay out of the conversation, and soon had split off into other groups.  Quintus found himself largely standing alone, not opposing most of the existing groups, but not compelled to join in either.  Instead, he melted into the shadows at the edge of the room and continued to observe.


I'm going to stick to my no-lynch position, even though I realize there will in fact be a lynch today. I don't really have a strong opinion between those currently up for the lynch, so we can leave it up to the random selection if no one else swings the vote.

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