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On 10/29/2017 at 5:13 PM, Sony said:

Interesting that Arinian is killed after being suspicious of both Wilson and Orlok; however, Arinian did say that they were a "cleared" villager since they've been pushing for Rae's lynch since D2. So, probably just a coincidence. 

Or,  the elims wanted to make it seem like Wilson and/or Orlok wanted Arinian killed off to make them seem more suspicious. 

Good point. Very good point.

On 10/29/2017 at 6:34 PM, Seonid said:

Doubt you're the Seer - your trolling about atium beads reads very much like a converted Thug.

Hmm, so it does. We'll see what I truly am tomorrow.

On 10/29/2017 at 6:36 PM, Shqueeves said:

Rae  

Aww, no explanation? It's good to know you've alive, but no other thoughts? :(

On 10/29/2017 at 8:19 PM, StrikerEZ said:

Okay, so, I think it's pretty obvious that Rae is an elim. I'm still skeptical if she's the Seer though. It would've been a good gambit to gain village trust by spearheading the discussion of the game as the Seer for those few cycles where she did, but I don't think that necessarily means that she's the Seer. I think it's a lot more likely that she's just a converted thug. She could be the Seer, but I'm not gonna bet on it. 

Ooh, let's make a poll!

People who think I am a Thug: (3) Striker, Seonid, DA

People who think I am a Seer: (2) Orlok, Wilson

20 hours ago, Darkness_ said:

Also, Rae, Finally...
Yeah, the way she's been behaving makes me doubt she's Seer as well, but I always knew she'd be an elim.

@Orlok Tsubodai @little wilson I see, Rae confessed to the both of you, and did she tell you about Lemon? Do you guys know who the other elims are/or have hints/suspicions?

And I don't think you two are actually elims, I just thought the entire thing was suspicious and it was worth bringing attention to it. 

And yeah, I think it's an attempt to garner suspicion on Orlok and Wilson.

So... Orlok and Wilson are probably not elims, but they're suspicious? Which is it?

11 hours ago, Araris Valerian said:

I'm not sure it matters, but I'll vote on Rae and hopefully get back on later to talk about the remaining elims. I hadn't really considered the fact that Rae could be a Thug, so if that's the case what I said about Orlok being village would be slightly less true since he wouldn't have cost his team a conversion. But there isn't too much point in worrying about that until we see what role Rae has.

I approve of this suspicion of Locke. Locke is terrible. He represents all that is wrong with the Nobility. Let's lynch (Or)locke!

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No coinshots attacked her either..

2 hours ago, Lemonelon said:

Hello lovelies! I'll be voting Rae today. Didn't we try to lynch her already? And someone mentioned I got scanned as an elim?? I'm a non metal burning obligator, so whoever told anyone that is going to be an elim shifting blame. Anyone want to own up?

Either she's Seer and burned a bead to survive the lynch, or she's a converted Thug.

That was me, I had been skimming to catch up to this cycle and I someone mentioned you being scanned and I presumed you'd been scanned as an elim.

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Night 7: Foresight

 

Locke,

Assuming your similarity to a Koloss does not extend further than your looks, you will have noticed that I do not like you.

And in case it does, I have stated it for you anyway.

If this letter has found you, then I am dead, and one of my associates will have delivered this letter to you in secret, because I believe you to be the correct person for this. I'm not too surprised by this, I knew it was unlikely that I would survive all of my plans. But even from beyond the grave, I am glad to say that I will still be sowing chaos. And you will help me.

So you may be asking yourself in this moment, ‘why me? Why has the talented, intelligent and beautiful – and sadly deceased - Armina seen fit to bless my worthless, pitiful, meaningless existence with this letter?’ The answer, o Obligator of little brain, is because I know you will avenge me, and happily at that.

Now Armina,’ you will be saying, in that incredulous tone you always take when someone has outsmarted you, ‘why would I avenge the death of a skaa? One that I spend most of my day hating, at that?’

You simply won’t be able to help yourself. This letter will give you everything you need to destroy Waern. Perhaps you think it’s odd for me to have my revenge be your success, but it’s only odd if you’re as self-centred as you are, and think that this particular revenge is all about you. It is not. You were at best an amusing distraction from my real enemy. You see, while I hate you, I hate Waern far more.

I enclose within this letter the dirt you need on Waern. You will avenge me by making his life a living hell, playing him like a puppet on your strings. It makes me happy to know that you will torture yourself over the fact that I’m the one you owe any success in your life to. Though, I’m sure Waern will also try to stab you in the back at some point, so perhaps there’s a chance for you both to suffer at my hand.

Unfortunately, this does mean you will need to find another hobby other than thinking about me.

Armina

 

Locke’s eyes skimmed the other information enclosed within the envelope. His eyes widened, and he couldn’t help but chuckle. Then he couldn’t contain it anymore, and started to laugh, not just at the letter’s contents, but the whole situation. She must have written this some time ago, before he started to call her out. Certainly he doubted she would be happy for him to have this now.

“Perhaps you shouldn’t have forced me to do some cleaning,” Locke mused to himself, pocketing the letter he certainly was not meant to have found yet. He placed the book back on the shelf that he had been dusting. He’d found the book in the wrong place, and was going to put it back on the correct shelf, but suddenly he no longer cared about the library ordering system.

Everything fell into place as he thought about yesterday, and the supposed ‘evidence’ that Waern had overruled them with. He knew she must have had something held over Waern’s head, but now he knew what it was. And it was certainly effective. But now he had information as well. All he had to do was take her out as carefully and quietly as possible…

 


 

When Locke arrived in the atrium, a tad late to the meeting, here was already a heated discussion under way. Or more precisely, a discussion had already occurred, and he was here witnessing the aftermath.

“-I’ll tell them what I’ve kept secret!” Armina was shouting at Waern and the other assembled Obligators.

Locke began to panic. To hell with being careful! His blackmail was worthless, worthless, if it became public knowledge. He had to act fast. His hand went to the knife on his belt and he drew it, striding forwards quickly, up behind Armina.

“My very last act shall be to destroy you and everything you’ve lived for, Waer-!”

He buried the knife in the side of Armina’s neck, clamping a hand over her mouth to quiet her. He held her briefly in his arm, ensuring her silence with his hand, waiting until she expired. She bit at his hand, trying to get him to let go, but his hold on her was too strong for her to shake. When he could no longer feel her breath on his palm, he withdrew the knife and let her unceremoniously drop to the floor. He picked her arm up and wiped his knife on her sleeve, before letting it fall again.

...Apologies sir,” Locke then said, bowing to Waern and the rest of the crowd. “But I couldn’t stand by while she started to slander you. Who knows what lies she was going to create in her desperation?”

“Hm...” Waern nodded, drawing a handkerchief out of his pocket and dabbing at the sweat on his forehead. “Yes, yes. You are forgiven, Obligator Locke. As she was a skaa heretic, your indignation at her continued existence is understandable. I think it is only right to commend you for your swift resolution of the situation. I promise you that your service today won't be forgotten.”

Locke grinned.

 


 

Armina (Arranae) was a Seer!

Armina/Arranae (8): Sheon/Seonid, Locke/Orlok Tsubodai, Hadrian/Araris Valerian, John/Shqueeves, Variel/StrikeEZ, Marsh/Darkness_, Pix/Lemeonelon, Sony

Locke/Orlok Tsubodai (1): Armina/Arranae

 

Night 7 has begun! It will end at 21:00 PM GMT on Wednesday.

red_1509483600.png

There is still a Tineye alive, so PMs may be continue to be sent.

 

Players

 
  1. Alrin (Arinian)- Obligator
  2. Sheon, formerly of House Idris (Seonid)
  3. Locke, formerly of House Tekiel (Orlok Tsubodai)
  4. Eobard (Steeldancer) - Lurcher
  5. Straw (Straw) - Obligator
  6. Quintus, worldhopper (Jondesu) - Coinshot
  7. Hadrian, formerly of House Penrod (Araris Valerian)
  8. John (Shqueeves)
  9. Variel, ambitious and young (StrikerEZ)
  10. Marsh, but not that Marsh (Darkness Ascendant)
  11. Pix (Lemonelon)
  12. Jaina, obsessed with pandas (littlewilson)
  13. Sart (Sart) - Smoker
  14. Cyfna (Elbereth)
  15. Edguardo 'The Great', long on plans but short on money (Paranoid King)
  16. A Joe in the Bush - Rioter
  17. Armina, of House Handler (Arranae) - Seer
  18. Sony
  19. Mira (frozen Mint) - Tineye
  20. Rin (doc12)
  21. Gaskon Renaud, who may get around to procrastinating eventually (Amanuensis) - Obligator
  22. DarianHammersmith
  23. Droughtbringer
  24. Davus
  25. Nickel, formerly of House Izenry (Aonar Faileas)

 

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Edited by Wyrmhero
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Wyrm, thank you for collaborating with me on RP. It was a joy working with you and reading your writeups.

If anyone here has guesses about what Waern's secret is, please PM it to myself or Wyrm. The hints should be there between my RP and his writeups. The first to guess things write will get a thumbs up from the dead doc. (EDIT: elim teammates are disqualified from this competition because you already know.)

@Orlok Tsubodai, please please please RP with this. Waern deserves to suffer. :) 

Edited by Arraenae
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Hm, so Rae wasn't a converted Thug. I'm going to go through all the past days and figure out where the Elims put a kill and when the conversions could have happened. Since no kill=conversion. It'll be rough but it may help to figure out who started playing differently/started playing on new information when and whether it lines up with the rough idea.

I PMed a few people last turn, and turns out we don't have that many resources...if there are scanners or whatever, PM me or Seonid or Orlok or Wilson, its about time we got organised.

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1 hour ago, Lemonelon said:

I hope this exhonorates me...

Why would it exonerate you in any way, Lemon? Indeed, I think it adds to the case against you. 

On 15/10/2017 at 10:26 PM, Arraenae said:

PK, for the reasons that I stated last night.

 

On 17/10/2017 at 5:02 AM, Arraenae said:

Okay, I'm not sure if this is even worth mentioning, but I have a tinfoil of a tionfoil that the Seeker could be PK's convert claiming to have scanned PK. It makes sense for a real Seeker to have scanned him, but the timing of this announcement is rather convenient for PK. >.>

 

On 17/10/2017 at 0:26 PM, Lemonelon said:

PK I'm voting for you because you voted for me. Nothing more, nothing less.

 

On 23/10/2017 at 9:44 AM, Lemonelon said:

Okay, I wanted to go through the previous threads for quotes but I have no idea how to quote a different thread for this turn on mobile <_<

So... Wilson has been instrumental for the D2 and D3 lynches, showing no sign of remorse for those mislynches and continuing her line of thought. I don't think she is a seer but would definitely put her as N1 convert so Wilson [/color]

 

On 24/10/2017 at 7:10 PM, Arraenae said:

Wilson. I hope your next few games go better for you. :/

(And yes this is partially self preservation. I know I'm village.)

 

@Lemonelon, the two times you’ve properly engaged in the thread before being focused on, you were either agreeing with Rae, or complicit in her attempt to kill off Wilson, which I think is now, beyond all doubt, a concerted attempt by the eliminators to kill a villager, given the coordination between Rae, the seer, and an eliminator Soother.

 

On 25/10/2017 at 7:04 AM, Lemonelon said:

Hi guys, I don't really have time for analysis of the game for the time being, so I'm mostly going to be lynching on gut feelings. I do think that we should start to kill off the inactive players though.

I’ve pointed out this post a number of times, Lemon, but that doesn’t undermine the fact that it does not appear remotely a village post.

On 27/10/2017 at 8:41 AM, Lemonelon said:

Is "meta gaming" the right word? Last time your were an Elim, that's what you did. To me no less.

Here, Lemon decided to accuse me for naming suspicions in thread, and in the following post, decides to say that as a villager, I shouldn’t be allowed to post suspicions.

On 27/10/2017 at 9:20 AM, Lemonelon said:

Absolutely, definitely, unequivocally yes.

For now though, I think I'll be switching from Orlok to Rae so I will have a fighting chance!

Here, we see that her switching to Rae was not an attempt to lynch her, but merely self preservation, and, I’d argue, made in the knowledge that Rae had an atium bead to keep her alive.

On 27/10/2017 at 9:46 AM, Lemonelon said:

She could be evil, you could be evil, I could be evil. 

You think I'm evil, you think she may be evil.

Based on the assumption that you are village, you have mentioned her feeling off to you. So, as a good villager I will listen to that theory. Just so happens to even out the votes in myself in the process.

Here, you further refuse to be helpful, and, indeed, state you’re only voting for Rae to even the votes out, whilst also said that you’re listening to me, which is deeply incongruous with your later vote on me.

On 28/10/2017 at 10:25 AM, Lemonelon said:

Okay, so... Aside from QF26, i think my best game was the MR (can't remember number) black out when I was an Elim. Every game since, I've been villager and people want to lynch me thinking I'm an eliminator. I'm not, but you can lynch me and see for yourselves xx

This has been pointed out, but is there any reason for your previous games to influence your likelihood of being evil in this game?

On 28/10/2017 at 1:21 PM, Lemonelon said:

To be honest, I have no idea. I think Wilson and Orlok are probably elims. I don't know how "styles" work, but I'm good at picking up patterns. If I were an elim, I would be trying to pick off people in the lynch that others have suspicions on to stay under the radar. I haven't really done that, which is causing suspicions on myself. I will switch my vote from Rae back to Orlok as I think he is really one of the elims. Though without any metals to burn and lack of PMs I can trust I'm really playing this blind.

@Lemonelon, why did you think I was evil, and why did you conveniently switch from Rae when the votes began to mount on her?

On 28/10/2017 at 8:27 PM, Arraenae said:

Alright, took a closer look at Lemon and looked at her posts in the QF.

I think Lemon is an elim[/color].

Their posts in the QF seem much more detailed than in here. I feel like Lemon isn't putting a lot of effort in analysis in this game, which would make sense if they're already elim. At the beginning of this game, I dismissed the things Lemon said as newbie inexperience, but it turns out that this isn't Lemon's first game, so they have less of an excuse.

This is Rae’s last post before she was revealed to be evil, surviving the lynch rather than being a soother. This reads as remarkably obvious distancing, rather than trying to lynch village!Lemon.

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Day 8: Pulling the Thread

 

Waern whistled as he did his careful patrol that night. He didn't bother to keep the noise down; at this point in time, he felt untouchable. What could possibly hurt him now the one thorn in his side was dead? And with no-one alive knowing the truth, every problem in his life had simply disappeared. He was on the rise to greatness once again. And this situation could very well be what propelled him. No longer did he have to worry about his past coming back to bite him. It was no time for carelessness of course, and Locke troubled him somewhat, but he felt freer now than he had done in many years. The sword raised above his head had been vanquished. Everything was looking up.

A rope lay across the floor before him, disappearing off into another room. Puzzled by this, Waern looked around before carefully picking it up. It had some give, but as he pulled back on it, it tightened up. He pulled with more strength, and gained a little ground from it. Setting himself into a sturdier, more stable stance, he pulled with yet more strength, and was rewarded for his efforts as he heard something snap. There was a thump from the room, behind the door.

Waern slowly shuffled into the room, looking around carefully in case anyone used the chance to attack him. But no, the room was silent other than him. He lit a candle, which illuminated the body of Sony. Marks on the neck showed that he had been strangled before his death. The corpse also had a broken neck, if he was any judge. Waern knelt down and examined the body.

He winced. The body was still warm. It also seemed as though the neck was the cause of death, not suffocation as he had first surmised. A broken neck he had just caused, as a matter of fact.

He dropped the rope back onto the floor and hurried out of the room. Someone else could discover that tomorrow morning.

 


 

Sony was an Obligator!

Day 8 has begun! It will end at 21:00 PM GMT on Friday.

red_1509656400.png

There is still a Tineye alive, so PMs may be continue to be sent.

 

Players

 
  1. Alrin (Arinian)- Obligator
  2. Sheon, formerly of House Idris (Seonid)
  3. Locke, formerly of House Tekiel (Orlok Tsubodai)
  4. Eobard (Steeldancer) - Lurcher
  5. Straw (Straw) - Obligator
  6. Quintus, worldhopper (Jondesu) - Coinshot
  7. Hadrian, formerly of House Penrod (Araris Valerian)
  8. John (Shqueeves)
  9. Variel, ambitious and young (StrikerEZ)
  10. Marsh, but not that Marsh (Darkness Ascendant)
  11. Pix (Lemonelon)
  12. Jaina, obsessed with pandas (littlewilson)
  13. Sart (Sart) - Smoker
  14. Cyfna (Elbereth)
  15. Edguardo 'The Great', long on plans but short on money (Paranoid King)
  16. A Joe in the Bush - Rioter
  17. Armina, of House Handler (Arranae) - Seer
  18. Sony- Obligator
  19. Mira (frozen Mint) - Tineye
  20. Rin (doc12)
  21. Gaskon Renaud, who may get around to procrastinating eventually (Amanuensis) - Obligator
  22. DarianHammersmith
  23. Droughtbringer
  24. Davus
  25. Nickel, formerly of House Izenry (Aonar Faileas)

 

Quick Links:

Edited by Wyrmhero
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Lemon.

One thing I noticed during the night. @Seonid, how exactly do we know exactly how many converts we're dealing with? Sure, we know Rae had a bead of atium that saved her from the lynch, but we still don't know how many she started with. I don't get how simply knowing that Rae was the Seer and used a bead tells us how many converts are out there.

Also, I'm not going to be terribly active after this day cycle is over. I'll be in an airport for the next rollover, since I'm heading to New Zealand on Friday. I don't know how frequently I'll be able to check in, since I'm only bringing my phone, and my international phone plan costs $10/day that I use it. So I'm not going to be using it terribly much. Which means that I'll only be able to check in when I'm on WiFi (or days that I've chosen to spend the $10 because I'm doing something like calling home, etc), and I don't know how much I'll be around free WiFi. But I'll check in when I can.

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@Orlok Tsubodai Is there a particular reason you didn't call on me to vote?

I don't have too much to say just now, life is kinda busy, but I'm a little less confident than you are that Lemon is an elim. However, I'll do my best to go back and look at his posts to see how justified my relative lack of suspicion is.

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Just now, Araris Valerian said:

@Orlok Tsubodai Is there a particular reason you didn't call on me to vote?

I don't have too much to say just now, life is kinda busy, but I'm a little less confident than you are that Lemon is an elim. However, I'll do my best to go back and look at his posts to see how justified my relative lack of suspicion is.

The above voted on Lemon last time, or expressed a sentiment that they were prepared to vote on her. Thoughts on my post during the night turn?

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Just an announcement - I'm starting NaNoWriMo today. Which is all fun and good and everything, but now I have to work out how that interacts with other commitments. Like this game, for example.

I'm going to keep participating until the end, but my dream of increasing activity is not likely to happen. Sorry. I'll do my best to at least vote during every day cycle. I'll even try to respond to criticisms of the vote or votes on me, but I don't guarantee everything.

I won't vote yet, but I do find Orlok's tunnel on Lemon suspicious. I haven't had a chance to go back and review everything - and I'm not likely to do that now. Orlok's just been drawing my attention for a bit. Where are we at in terms of number of active players? It would be important to know how many mislynches we are likely to be able to afford. If we can afford one without a lot of risk (factoring in Soothers), then lynching Lemon and then Orlok if Lemon flips town isn't a bad plan.

@little wilson - I misread the rules. I thought we had a known number of atium beads in the game. I just rechecked, and I was wrong. All we know is that she only had 1 bead left, so she converted all the way up to (max potential Elims - 1).

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Okay, I definitely agree that it looks like Lemon was following Rae's lead. I would like to hear from him if he had reasons for those actions aside from what he posted though. I guess the only thing I disagree with you about (and then only reluctantly) is that unhelpful behavior is consistently alignment indicative. For example, inactivity is unhelpful, but I'd bet all the eliminators are active in this game, since Rae got to pick them out. This is where I get a little frustrated with the term "playstyle," because some players have a playstyle that basically forces them to be unhelpful. I understand that for a lot of people playing optimally isn't the most fun thing to do. I mean, for myself, I could probably win more of these games if I did more analysis. However, I do wish there was a line between behavior that isn't actively helping the village (low activity levels), and behavior that is actively harming the village.

I guess that behavior that is harmful is usually pretty easy to pick out, and thus if eliminators behave that way then it's easy to spot them. I assume that most elims are trying to give an appearance of playing optimally to avoid drawing attention to themselves.

Also, I do think it's safe to assume 3 elims left because (as I've mentioned a few times before) both the square root rule and the 20% rule give a 5 person elim team.

 

@Wyrmhero Is there a reason the day cycle is now 24 hours? Also, some of the Quick Links weren't working for me (D1 and N1 at least).

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@little wilson Have fun in NZ! @Seonid Good luck with NaNo!

I'm still feeling a bit uneasy about the Lemon lynch. And the deaths of Arinian, and Sony, who have both expressed suspicion of Orlok (Sony, in PMs), makes me more uneasy.
But I told Orlok I'd vote for Lemon, and he appeared to be villagery in PMs...*rubs forehead. I sorely hope that Lemon is an elim, if not I'm going to feel really bad about this. Trusting you here @Orlok Tsubodai:P .

7 hours ago, Araris Valerian said:

Okay, I definitely agree that it looks like Lemon was following Rae's lead. I would like to hear from him if he had reasons for those actions aside from what he posted though. I guess the only thing I disagree with you about (and then only reluctantly) is that unhelpful behavior is consistently alignment indicative. For example, inactivity is unhelpful, but I'd bet all the eliminators are active in this game, since Rae got to pick them out. This is where I get a little frustrated with the term "playstyle," because some players have a playstyle that basically forces them to be unhelpful. I understand that for a lot of people playing optimally isn't the most fun thing to do. I mean, for myself, I could probably win more of these games if I did more analysis. However, I do wish there was a line between behavior that isn't actively helping the village (low activity levels), and behavior that is actively harming the village.

Yeah, they did seem "lockstep" but as for finding the key to the line between behaviour that isn't actively helping the village and behaviour that is harming is something that I reckon can be found in the following step.

Usually when asking said person questions, trying to garner activity/helpfulness, the way they respond to such inquiries can determine whether they are helping or harming, along with the way they have been playing all game. Also; 

Quote

I mean, for myself, I could probably win more of these games if I did more analysis

There's no "I" i-

Oh wait.

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5 hours ago, Araris Valerian said:

Well, the rules say it should be 48 hours. So I'm not sure if that's a mistake, or if Wyrm said somewhere that this cycle would be shorter and I just missed it.

Yup, mistake. Fixed.

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