Long Game 39: Blood Money

[Darkness Ascendant]

@little wilson @Orlok Tsubodai, I still don't understand why you two pushed for Lemon during day, I don't understand how Rae's lynch won't give a "great deal of info" as opposed to Lemon, who I believe to be village.

And then that, just because Arin said that he thought Lemon's actions were NAI. And don't mention the fact we both have been advocating a lynch on rae, me for far more solid reasons >.>

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but would rather see Rae lynched than myself.

Bro, you had one vote on you, which was Lemon and Rae both in an act of self preservation.

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Also, I vehemently disagree with the claim that Lemon's actions are NAI. She's participating in the MR a fair bit, providing reads and everything over there, but not even bothering to do so here. Ever wonder why that might be?

Uh, maybe because she's in a really horrible situation irl and can't expend all that much effort here @little wilson?

You two seem to be behaving so strangely. I'll be darned if you guys get the credit for getting Rae killed as elim, which she clearly is.
Honestly feels like there is some communication going on between the two of you, as well as @Elbereth, who just jumped on the lynch last hour.

Definitely villagers (Unless this is some super elaborate gambit).

I also noticed you two conveniently avoid my question as to whether you two had gained access to some information upon Lemon which pushed you guys into activity.

And a coinshot should target rae tonight.

Edited October 28, 2017 by Darkness_
Mixed up Rae and Lemon.

[little wilson]

When exactly was I pushed into activity? Please explain. And yes, I'm in PMs with Orlok and El. Aonar too, in case you want to know all my active PMs. I did not realize that being in private communication with other players I believe are village was a crime.

I'm only a little aware of Lemon's RL stuff. She hasn't said anything about it in this game thread, and I've only been casually scrolling through the MR in the last cycle or two.

[Arrae]

32 minutes ago, Darkness_ said:

@little wilson @Orlok Tsubodai

 

@little wilson

@Elbereth, 

And a coinshot should target rae tonight.

Sure. If one still exists in this game.

[Darkness Ascendant]

22 minutes ago, little wilson said:

When exactly was I pushed into activity? Please explain. And yes, I'm in PMs with Orlok and El. Aonar too, in case you want to know all my active PMs. I did not realize that being in private communication with other players I believe are village was a crime.

I'm only a little aware of Lemon's RL stuff. She hasn't said anything about it in this game thread, and I've only been casually scrolling through the MR in the last cycle or two.

Not so much the communication, more so the information that seems to be passing between them. What made you all think that Lemon is an elim?
Face it, you all can't all have just had an epiphany and suddenly seen how "eliminatory", Lemon had been behaving  

Not as much "pushed" as "got up". Most of the game you haven't wholly contributed to the game itself. I'd say you got up about when Rae started referring to you as if you were dead. But then you sat back down. 

Until the entire push on Lemon started, and you and Orlok started walking in tandem, which is surprising.

I will admit to this however. 

Just clarifying, I don't think they're Elims based on how they switched to Rae, but I do find it very weird and I am getting a sense of dread from all of this.

22 minutes ago, little wilson said:

I'm only a little aware of Lemon's RL stuff. She hasn't said anything about it in this game thread, and I've only been casually scrolling through the MR in the last cycle or two.

Ah, I see. She posted in Bad Day thread.

Edited October 28, 2017 by Darkness_
added a word for clarity. Just realised it looked stupidly ambiguous.

[Sony]

That was... an unexpected outcome, but it basically confirms that Rae is an elim. 

1 hour ago, Arinian said:

I mean, if I understand it right and Rae is Seer(not converted Thug) than we right now just killed 2 elims, cause she wasted one bead of atium to survive and that's good isn't it?

I mean, that sounds like a good thing to me.  Either way, one elim is now known. 

 

3 minutes ago, Darkness_ said:

Face it, you all can't all have just had an epiphany and suddenly seen how "eliminatory", Lemon had been behaving  

I agree with this, it was a little suspicious, but I still think that both Orlok and Wilson are villagers. I don't know about El or Aonar, since they haven't posted much (You could definitely say the same thing about me). 

[Darkness Ascendant]

2 minutes ago, Sony said:

I agree with this, it was a little suspicious, but I still think that both Orlok and Wilson are villagers. I don't know about El or Aonar, since they haven't posted much (You could definitely say the same thing about me). 

El also jumped on the bandwagon last hour, and Wilson and Orlok are all chums with her  I wouldn't be surprised if they all "PM"ed each other. And you also went with them with a little prodding, which I find suspicious too, but according to Wilson you aren't in PMs with her.

[Sony]

2 minutes ago, Darkness_ said:

And you also went with them with a little prodding, which I find suspicious too, but according to Wilson you aren't in PMs with her.

Pff.. You think people want to PM me? I'm all lonely...  

To be fair, I thought Orlok's point on Lemon wanting to vote on inactives made her suspicious, but then your point made more sense to me, so I took off my vote. 

[Arrae]

1 hour ago, Arinian said:

I mean, if I understand it right and Rae is Seer(not converted Thug) than we right now just killed 2 elims, cause she wasted one bead of atium to survive and that's good isn't it?

That's a very good question. Is a potential person a person? Potential teammate? How do you know I'm the Seer?

3 minutes ago, Sony said:

That was... an unexpected outcome, but it basically confirms that Rae is an elim. 

Hmm. Whyever would you have joined a lynch if you didn't suspect something like this? After all, isn't the point of a lynch to kill an elim?

2 minutes ago, Darkness_ said:

El also jumped on the bandwagon last hour, and Wilson and Orlok are all chums with her  I wouldn't be surprised if they all "PM"ed each other. And you also went with them with a little prodding, which I find suspicious too, but according to Wilson you aren't in PMs with her.

"Chums" isn't the right word to describe El and Orlok's relationship. It's not deep enough. But yes, I do agree that El's vote on me was suspicious. Perhaps it could have been a bus attempt.

[Darkness Ascendant]

Just now, Sony said:

Pff.. You think people want to PM me? I'm all lonely...  

To be fair, I thought Orlok's point on Lemon wanting to vote on inactives made her suspicious, but then your point made more sense to me, so I took off my vote. 

Aw, *PMs you. Same here buddy.

Voting on inactives is a bit of a myth at times. People tend to think that it's useful when there aren't solid reads. I personally just think then that means you should analyse more heh. Of course, at the time there were a few leads, but Lemon hasn't been paying all too much attention to the game so I'm not surprised she gave the impartial and non committal advice of lynching inactives.
Which isn't suspicious to me.

1 minute ago, Arraenae said:

Chums" isn't the right word to describe El and Orlok's relationship. It's not deep enough. But yes, I do agree that El's vote on me was suspicious. Perhaps it could have been a bus attempt.

That was the joke  Deep enough 

[Sony]

2 minutes ago, Arraenae said:

Hmm. Whyever would you have joined a lynch if you didn't suspect something like this? After all, isn't the point of a lynch to kill an elim?

It was only unexpecting because I didn't think of a Soother protecting you, or you using up your atium to save yourself. I thought you would've been successfully lynched.  

 

[Arinian]

1 hour ago, Darkness_ said:

And then that, just because Arin said that he thought Rae's actions were NAI.

I said that Lemon's actions is NAI, but I think you anyway meant that.

Also guys you should stop all this warm funny talks... now I think that everyone active players in this game except me is elims.(paranoia grows... damnation)

Also I think that DA right, Wilson and Orlok is elims but I like to doubt my own conclusions so I not gonna lynch them immediately after we will lynch(finally) Rae.

Reasons why I suspect Orlok and Wilson pretty obvious and were stated by DA and me. I just see another pattern now, Orlok and Wilson tried to save Rae for one more turn to give her time to use last atium bead to convert someone. Or they hoped that no one would pressure on them to lynch Rae.

Also I little bit paranoid about DA(not suspicious) cause he playing toooooo good for normal DA, his behavior it's something unusual for him... maybe he controled by brain parasite which  loves forum mafia.

[Darkness Ascendant]

16 minutes ago, Arinian said:

I said that Lemon's actions is NAI, but I think you anyway meant that.

Also guys you should stop all this warm funny talks... now I think that everyone active players in this game except me is elims.(paranoia grows... damnation)

Also I think that DA right, Wilson and Orlok is elims but I like to doubt my own conclusions so I not gonna lynch them immediately after we will lynch(finally) Rae.

Reasons why I suspect Orlok and Wilson pretty obvious and were stated by DA and me. I just see another pattern now, Orlok and Wilson tried to save Rae for one more turn to give her time to use last atium bead to convert someone. Or they hoped that no one would pressure on them to lynch Rae.

Also I little bit paranoid about DA(not suspicious) cause he playing toooooo good for normal DA, his behavior it's something unusual for him... maybe he controled by brain parasite which  loves forum mafia.

Oop yes, I meant Lemon, my bad. editting now.

Eh, people will always be subtle and manipulative. Although I do believe Wilson and Orlok should share whatever it is that spurred them to go for Lemon with the rest of us, I'm getting a feeling of dread.

Oh wow, I had honestly not seen it like that. That's interesting...hm...and Wilson was earlier going on about how we should go ahead and lynch her etc...

I'm always this good, I just don't show it  

[little wilson]

I made one post. When does one post qualify as "going on about it"?

[Arinian]

I'm just looked D5 and now it looks for me like "Wow, wow what a damnation cool turn by elims!" Just think of it people started to be suspicious of Wilson and Rae and they both elims and what the better way to distance than imitate  attempt to lynch each other. And drama... what a drama by Wilson! 

Just put all together. Main suspects on D5 from my point of view were Wilson and Rae(and PK but no one wanted to lynch... only Orlok said something about lynching PK if I not wrong). Wilson's vote on herself after Rae gets couple votes, it's looked like Wilson just annoyed by our "unreasonable suspicions", but looking back I see... tie main part in tie between Rae and Wilson played Wilson's vote on herself and last two votes by Orlok and Rae... why they keeped their votes for so long... hmm... I think that they just wanted to be sure to create tie. Only problem with this theory it's two soothers... how high chance for elims to convert 2 soothers... pretty low I will say they should be really lucky for it. So in worst scenario for village elims converted 2 soothers and so right now they can make tie with 6 votes. Or one soother is elim and other is just was in contact with elims, trusted them and was manipulated in creating tie(don't knowing about that). I don't have any info about who can be this soothers.

Conclusion:  I think that tie between Rae and Wilson on D5 was planned distancing. For me right now most probable elim team is Rae, Orlok, Wilson, Araris.

Araris because he jumped from one suspicion to another and tried not to take part in successful lynches(I mean he voted for someone who have had low chances to be lynched on certain turn). That's pretty good way to fly under radar and not to be blamed for mislynch, this kind of behavior pretty usual for Araris so my conclusion about Araris not so sure as about others.

Also I still think that PK can be another probable elim. He disappeared after his chance to be lynched increased and still possible that Rae's vote(on C2 I think...) on PK was dinstancing still here.

But as I like to say, I can be fully wrong  

Paranoia says: "Never discount inactives or lurkers as possible elims "

Edited October 29, 2017 by Arinian

[Araris Valerian]

I guess I'd like to make a comment about my "not participating in successful lynches," particularly last cycle. It seemed like there were two candidates up for the lynch; Lemon and Rae. Now, normally if there are two people up the the lynch, you vote for the one you suspect the most. However, I'm pretty sure that most of us were pretty suspicious of Rae, but voted elsewhere to get more information (I was somewhat confused with that reasoning but went along anyway). I decided that I didn't agree that Lemon was an elim, and voted elsewhere (on you to be precise).

Now, I think the lynch last cycle gives us some important information, because Rae still had a bead of Atium left (or possibly multiple?). That means that we basically got 2 elims in 1 for that lynch, because we can kill Rae again. This leads me to think that Orlok is village. As an elim, if he got another villager lynched, then during the night the elims could convert and likely have a team of 5 with 2 soothes. With a mislynch and a kill that would put the score at 5 elims, 11 village, 8 of which would have to be active to stop the game from ending. We have something like 5 players that are totally inactive, so that would be the end.

Beyond that, I'm getting a bit of an elim read on Aonar for trying to leave the Lemon lynch as a possibility. Even if Lemon and Rae are a team, lynching Lemon first means that someone else can be converted that the village would have no accurate reads on.

[Arrae]

25 minutes ago, Arinian said:

Paranoia says: "Never discount inactives or lurkers as possible elims "

Yup yup, that's always a good idea.

6 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

Now, I think the lynch last cycle gives us some important information, because Rae still had a bead of Atium left (or possibly multiple?).

Ooh, I think you're the first person to consider the possibility that I still have more Atium left. Anyone wanna bet on how many lynches it'll take for me to die?

[Arinian]

9 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

I guess I'd like to make a comment about my "not participating in successful lynches," particularly last cycle. It seemed like there were two candidates up for the lynch; Lemon and Rae. Now, normally if there are two people up the the lynch, you vote for the one you suspect the most. However, I'm pretty sure that most of us were pretty suspicious of Rae, but voted elsewhere to get more information (I was somewhat confused with that reasoning but went along anyway). I decided that I didn't agree that Lemon was an elim, and voted elsewhere (on you to be precise).

Now, I think the lynch last cycle gives us some important information, because Rae still had a bead of Atium left (or possibly multiple?). That means that we basically got 2 elims in 1 for that lynch, because we can kill Rae again. This leads me to think that Orlok is village. As an elim, if he got another villager lynched, then during the night the elims could convert and likely have a team of 5 with 2 soothes. With a mislynch and a kill that would put the score at 5 elims, 11 village, 8 of which would have to be active to stop the game from ending. We have something like 5 players that are totally inactive, so that would be the end.

Beyond that, I'm getting a bit of an elim read on Aonar for trying to leave the Lemon lynch as a possibility. Even if Lemon and Rae are a team, lynching Lemon first means that someone else can be converted that the village would have no accurate reads on.

Well, you right. Still that no changes my reasons for suspiciouns on you. Also Aonar is lurking most of time so I can't say what I think about him.

I think next turn lynch on Rae will provide us with needed info. If she survives then we will know that my direction of thought is fully wrong and we should look for elims in other places, if Rae will die from lynch than there chance that I'm right, atleast partially. 

Also normal number of elims for 25 players is 5 and if we right and Rae is Seer(not converted Thug) then maximum of elims for us right now is 4.

4 minutes ago, Arraenae said:

Ooh, I think you're the first person to consider the possibility that I still have more Atium left. Anyone wanna bet on how many lynches it'll take for me to die?

I never discarded possibility that you have more then 1 bead of atium left or that you haven't used them at all. But it's pretty easy to check by lynching you again. 

If I was elim I would surely keep  1 bead of atium unused just in case if I will get info about useful roles for elims to convert or to spread confusion in late game... or for something else *shrug*.

[Orlok Tsubodai]

@Arinian, if I were evil with Rae, why would I have 1) lynched her instead of Lemon last cycle, 2) Enforced a tie between Wilson and Rae, rather than working with Rae to kill PK, and 3) Pointed out her actions on D5 constituted an attack on Wilson? As I said yesterday, I supported a lynch on Lemon over Rae because I didn’t believe Rae to be the Seer (thinking that she was instead the Soother), and because I believed Rae to be confirmed evil, with a lynch of Soother!Rae not giving us any information. The fact that I swung onto Rae, and brought her vote count from 1 to 6, asking Wilson, Sony, and El to vote on her with us, at the cost of an atium bead to her, ought to be further demonstration that Rae and I are not on the same team.

[Arrae]

9 minutes ago, Orlok Tsubodai said:

@Arinian, if I were evil with Rae, why would I have 1) lynched her instead of Lemon last cycle, 2) Enforced a tie between Wilson and Rae, rather than working with Rae to kill PK, and 3) Pointed out her actions on D5 constituted an attack on Wilson? As I said yesterday, I supported a lynch on Lemon over Rae because I didn’t believe Rae to be the Seer (thinking that she was instead the Soother), and because I believed Rae to be confirmed evil, with a lynch of Soother!Rae not giving us any information. The fact that I swung onto Rae, and brought her vote count from 1 to 6, asking Wilson, Sony, and El to vote on her with us, at the cost of an atium bead to her, ought to be further demonstration that Rae and I are not on the same team.

Because PK is an elim too, as you say yourself.  It was a glorious opportunity for the village, but was needlessly squandered.

Edited October 29, 2017 by Arraenae

[Orlok Tsubodai]

8 minutes ago, Arraenae said:

Because PK is an elim too, as you say yourself.  It was a glorious opportunity for the village, but was needlessly squandered.

Something I am beginning to question. Whilst D5 can be interpreted as your protecting him, it could also be that you chose to kill Wilson over him, concerned about Wilson returning, or finding her an easier lynch than PK.

[Arinian]

20 minutes ago, Orlok Tsubodai said:

@Arinian, if I were evil with Rae, why would I have 1) lynched her instead of Lemon last cycle, 2) Enforced a tie between Wilson and Rae, rather than working with Rae to kill PK, and 3) Pointed out her actions on D5 constituted an attack on Wilson? As I said yesterday, I supported a lynch on Lemon over Rae because I didn’t believe Rae to be the Seer (thinking that she was instead the Soother), and because I believed Rae to be confirmed evil, with a lynch of Soother!Rae not giving us any information. The fact that I swung onto Rae, and brought her vote count from 1 to 6, asking Wilson, Sony, and El to vote on her with us, at the cost of an atium bead to her, ought to be further demonstration that Rae and I are not on the same team.

1) Hoped to clear yourself by sacrificing teammate, nothing unusual.

2) I doubt that it good idea for elims, clear(distance) yourself by well executed trick is much better then cooperate with your teammate(especially when you said that you suspicios of your teammate). So if you had tried to lynch PK with Rae than it would look pretty suspicious.

3) I don't know, for me it's meant nothing I already was suspicious of Rae.

Anyway enough about that, it leads to nothing. Lynch on Rae on next turn will show if my suspicions have some base under it. Then we will talk.

[Arrae]

This activity is great. If I'd known that being lynched would have led to this explosion of discussion, I should have gotten myself lynched earlier. 

Edited October 29, 2017 by Arraenae
I pride myself on my spelling.

[Orlok Tsubodai]

38 minutes ago, Arinian said:

1) Hoped to clear yourself by sacrificing teammate, nothing unusual.

2) I doubt that it good idea for elims, clear(distance) yourself by well executed trick is much better then cooperate with your teammate(especially when you said that you suspicios of your teammate). So if you had tried to lynch PK with Rae than it would look pretty suspicious.

3) I don't know, for me it's meant nothing I already was suspicious of Rae.

Anyway enough about that, it leads to nothing. Lynch on Rae on next turn will show if my suspicions have some base under it. Then we will talk.

By sacrificing both a teammate, and a late game conversion, Arinian? That makes very little sense. Whilst constant scrutiny can only be a good thing, at some point you should consider that your proposal is so unlikely that it makes no sense. The cost/benefit of bussing Rae is dramatically against it, and the situation that would have had to emerge for that to occur is remarkably convoluted.

[little wilson]

This, dear children, is what we call a tunnel.

[Arrae]

5 minutes ago, little wilson said:

This, dear children, is what we call a tunnel.

Wilson, there are times when you are my snark goal. This is one of them.