Quick Fix Game 27: Lord of the Lynches: Terror in Minas Tirith

[Doc12]

3 hours ago, King Cole said:

Well, im dead and i cant really tell you much. The pipe-weed was an item that had no effect except for being mentioned in the writeup somewhere if I drcided to smoke it

2 hours ago, King Cole said:

Well, im dead and i cant really tell you much. The pipe-weed was an item that had no effect except for being mentioned in the writeup somewhere if I drcided to smoke it

Please tell me you didn't use your ability just to tell us this

So today's discussion seems mainly centered on the politicians and what factions they were from. After some thought, and because the fact that there were no votes yesterday essentially guaranteed a kill (If one politician did not know the other was also voting), I find myself agreeing with Orlok that it would be a particularly rash or trigger-happy villager to cast that vote. 

There's been a lot of speculation on this third faction, and yes, from a story perspective, Isengard would make perfect sense. It would certainly explain why there were two votes with intent to kill, without blaming the rashness of an innocent. This third faction would certainly not be a friend to Gondor either, but at the same time would be a threat towards Mordor. 

In any case, looking at the reveal this cycle of Lemon, I have decided to not place a vote on him. On one hand, his playstyle and how he missed the vote count could certainly point towards his inexperience and explain the killing vote. On the other hand, perhaps it can also be indicative of how he might have conceivably have slipped and didn't think his vote through. He certainly claims he gave not much thought to the vote itself. In any case, I would grant him the benefit of the doubt. A revealed role can be harmful or beneficial to the elims, but I do not think I want Lemon dead just yet. 

I would want to put pressure on people like Alvron, though. As much as we signed up to have fun, part of the game is analysis, and some thoughts scattered among your insanity would be very helpful. I am also watching Manukos and Roadwalker, who have both posted but seem to be just parroting what has been said without adding anything. Not that that is inherently suspicious, rather that being clueless can often be a good place to hide. I would like to hear what you have to say, and perhaps throw a vote. 

I'll be back with a vote by the end of the cycle.

[Sparkrunner]

 

28 minutes ago, Manukos said:

P.S. if ppl can plz stop finding out the encryptions before i have a chance to decrypt them that'd be great 

Before you have a chance to encrypt them?

...

All ya have ta do is press Ctrl+A, and there have been messages in both of the write-ups so far, so it seems to be, ah, not encrypted to me. I'll comply, however, and let you do the one-button press next time.

11 minutes ago, Doc12 said:

I am also watching Manukos and Roadwalker, who have both posted but seem to be just parroting what has been said without adding anything. True. Not that that is inherently suspicious, Also true. rather that being clueless can often be a good place to hide. I think I have overused my "new kid" card, as has Lemonelon, which gives some suspicion on my part to Lemon, and to you Doc, and anyone else who mentions Lemon's "Inexperience." I would like to hear what you have to say, and perhaps throw a vote. 

 

[Alvron]

11 hours ago, randuir said:

Lastly, a vote, as we should really not let the elims have their pick this time around.My two suspicions from last cycle still kinda stand, as Alvron's gibbletish isn't particularly helping his case, and I'm still unsure about lemonelon. I'm going to vote on Alvron for now, in the hope that the threat of an imminent lynch will snap him out of his madness (and whatever he says when he's back to the world of the sane will allow me to re-evaluate him).

The bear in the beehive wants his fiddle back.

11 hours ago, Orlok Tsubodai said:

@randuir, I'm of the view that Alv is having fun at the moment. Whilst it's certainly not conducive to analysing him effectively, I'm not sure that the need to end his fun is significant enough at the moment to warrant threatening a lynch, and don't think that lynching him will yield any valuable information.

*nods sagely*  I live in the wind.  Oink. said the Willow tree.  Oink.  Oink!

6 hours ago, Orlok Tsubodai said:

As such, with my apologies: 

@Jondesu, @Steeldancer, @Sony, @Alvron, @asterion137, @Doc12, @queensteph, @Drake Marshall, @Manukos, @Sami, @Mestiv, @Roadwalker, @Straw, @BrightnessRadiant, @Megasif, your thoughts on the outcome of last cycle, and predominately on this cycle's discussion of it, would be appreciated.

Smoke in the wind.  Squeaky-Squeaky!  

4 hours ago, Steeldancer said:

As much as I find Alvron's antics funny, I feel like it might be a ploy to avoid scrutiny. I'm going to scrutinize it and say Alvron. AND now I accidentally started typing in white. Grammatical errors abound. 

The worms are in my head.  They pulse in my brain and I hears their words.  They don’t like you!

3 hours ago, Roadwalker said:

Silver hopped off of the tree, which was starting to smell like Hobbit Weed. He strolled lazily down the street, watching a butterfly hungrily. He stopped short when he saw @Alvron wandering about, talking to himself in the Ancient Language of the Creators.

"Ooklay in the agbay, Indianapolis sounds like a shark?" he asked.

Hello.  Hello?  Let me see you.  One is so bright.

41 minutes ago, Jondesu said:

As for the discussion, I’m getting weird vibes from Lemon, but this feels like the many many times I’ve seen someone say something that was odd or have bad logic, and I don’t think any of those have resulted in an Elim lynch that I can remember. I think I’ll put my vote on Alvron since I can definitely see him using a tactic like insanity to appear innocent.

Make him shorter!  Like the others.  Clever trick.

[Elenion]

And that's the cycle! Next cycle will be up shortly.

[Elenion]

3: The Return of the Steward

Baranor, captain of the guards, jogged across the courtyard towards the Steward’s dining area. In doing so, he passed no fewer than eight guards.

If someone is going to try to kill the Steward, they’re going to have one very bad time.

He reached the outer door of the White Tower, where two guards stood at attention.

“I must speak with the Steward immediately!”

“Sir, we have orders that nobody can enter. The Steward must not be disturbed.”

“This is more important than that, can’t you see?”

The guards shuffled their feet, glancing at each other uncertainly. Neither seemed quite sure of what to say.

“I’ll take personal responsibility,” Baranor said.

The guards looked at each other. One shrugged. Then they both grasped hold of the doors and pulled. They did not open. Baranor frowned. He walked up to the doors and knocked loudly, but nobody answered. He knocked again, and finally a servant appeared at the door, his eyes bleary with the fatigue of the morning.

“Where’s the Steward?”

“I don’t know! I haven’t seen--”

Baranor shoved him aside and stormed into the White Tower, heading directly for the Steward’s chambers. The servant tried to protest, but one look from Baranor silenced him. In his chambers, on his back laying on the floor with eyes wide open, was Jedal Snyders. No blood covered the floor, no injury marked his body. He had been slain by the hand of the Valar themselves.

********

Lemonelon was in trouble. He was a politician, but out of practice and it showed. What had started as a standard campaign speech about the recent goings-on in Minas Tirith had turned ugly, and what had formerly been ardent supporters had turned into a violent mob. Lemonelon had fled to the top of the wall of the second circle of the city, speaking desperately in an attempt to turn away the mob’s wrath. It was no use. A squad of guards was assembling, attempting to shove a path through the mob to come to his rescue, but the mob was simply too violent. As the guard watched, a thrown rock knocked Lemonelon off of the wall, a fall too high to survive. All they could do was retrieve the body.

********

Annatar labored away at his blacksmith’s shop, hard at work on a set of horseshoes. Horseshoes were certainly not the most glamorous item to be making, but they had their advantages. They did not attract thieves, as jewelry did, and they did not attract suspicion, as swords and armor were bound to do. Plus, there was always a demand for horseshoes down in Rohan, so they made for a steady income.

Clang! Clang! Clang! The hammer fell. But its regular beat disguised the sound of footsteps on the roof of Annatar’s smithy. Annatar could only tell that something was wrong when his smithy suddenly began to fill with smoke from the forge. He’d dealt with plugged chimneys before, so he grabbed his metal ramrod and jammed it into the chimney to clear it. But instead of sending caked soot cascading down onto Annatar, the ramrod hit something metal. Something that obviously wasn’t supposed to be in the chimney.

Annatar began to panic. This wasn’t a blacksmithing accident--someone was trying to kill him! He ran for the door of the smithy, but it was blocked. The lock was on the inside, of course, but something had been braced against the door on the other side, pinning it shut. Annatar rammed the door again and again, but the stout wood held. He’d made the hinges himself, so he knew they wouldn’t break. He silently cursed himself for the quality of his work.

If he couldn’t get out, at least he could try to put out the flames. He shoved himself off away from the door, towards the center of the room, but was met with a wall of smoke. Eyes burning, he turned back, unable to even locate where his forge was. There was something unnatural about the smoke, too, because it was thicker and blacker than any that Annatar had ever seen. The assassin must have dropped something down the chimney before placing that metal block in there.

Annatar felt his legs drop out from under him as he crumpled to the ground. His eyes closed to block out the smoke one last time.

But then, he heard something. Annatar couldn’t stand, he couldn’t move, but he could still hear.

“I think there’s someone in there! Get me an axe!”

The sound of running feet, and the crash of an heavy object against the door.

“Stand back!” THERE

Four more crashes. IS

The sound of splintering wood. ONLY

The feeling of somebody throwing him over their shoulder as if he weighed little more than a box of horseshoes. ONE

The feeling of plate armor underneath him. ESCAPE

The smell of fresh air.

---

Sami has died of inactivity! They were the Steward of Gondor.

Lemonelon was lynched! They were a Politician.

Orlok was attacked, but was saved!

 

Vote Tally:

Lemonelon (3)

Orlok (1)

Alvron (2)

 

Cycle 4 has begun! You have about 23.5 hours to vote and send in actions.

 

Player List
1. Lemonelon - Unspecified Politician
2. King Cole - Unspecified Scribe
3. Randuir - Randuir
4. Jondesu - Findecano Nenharma
5. Steeldancer - Twigeye
6. Sony - Sony
7. Alvron - Zunn the Mad
8. Asterion - Hobo Baggins
9. Doc - Unspecified
10. Steph - Unspecified
11. Drake Marshall - The Marshall of Minas Tirith
12. Manukos - Oakmus N
13. Darkness Ascendant - Mori lôm Nobleman
14. Sami - Jedal Snyders Steward of Gondor
15. Orlok Tsubodai - Annatar
16. Mestiv - Unspecified
17. Roadwalker - Silver Feather
18. Straw - Straw
19. Brightness Radiant - Unspecified
20. Megasif - Megamir

[Mestiv]

Oh boy, the Steward is dead... That's not good and his death doesn't even give us any leads :/

It seems that Orlok caught attention of Mordor agents. Maybe they just want to eliminate an experienced player? Good thing there was a guard around.

[Sparkrunner]

Oh my. Not good. And for Mestiv's second comment, I remember hearing about wilson getting a two year streak where she was killed only because she was experienced, correct?

Quote

Hello.  Hello?  Let me see you.  One is so bright.  @Alvron

It is, it was, and infinity is frogs. Manukos: Don't look at the spoiler.

Spoiler

There is only one escape.

 

[Mestiv]

2 minutes ago, Roadwalker said:

, I remember hearing about wilson getting a two year streak where she was killed only because she was experienced, correct?

Sucks to be experienced

[Sparkrunner]

I am now thinking about the tag "they're taking the lynchees to isengard."

If the people advocating isengard as a third faction are indeed correct, that would mean... the isengardians kill the lynchees? why? lynchees could be both factions, so a last man standing kind of thing?

[queensteph]

Ug I got home and caught up on the thread JUST 3 MINUTES AFTER IT WAS CLOSED. I was mad and may have spouted off hatred for Elenion in the heat of the moment. 

(sorry Len I don't actually hate you) OR DO I??

I was suspicious that Lemon was a village politician in their replies to being questioned so I wasn't surprised when they claimed. I figured the misunderstandings were just from the lack of inexperience (since I'm the queen of misunderstandings), and felt inclined to trust them. I didn't have any major suspicions yet as to who the elims might be, but I felt Drake may have just been going along with Alvron's madness charade in order to still look active by contributing to the thread. I still sort of feel this way but then he did add in his opinions and they were my exacts thoughts on the reasoning behind DA's murder (i.e. being that he was probably active in the Noble doc and an Elim!Noble figured out who he was). That doesn't confirm or deny anything, just personally it made me less suspicious of him since our thoughts on the matter lined up.

That's all of what I wanted to say before the last cycle ended but I didn't get the chance since I thought it was ending at 4:30 when it ended at like 4:16 or something.  

I'll be active more now since I'm home. 

 

 

[Alvron]

35 minutes ago, Roadwalker said:

It is, it was, and infinity is frogs.

Flip-flap-flopping fish.  Black trees and thistles.

[manukos]

Look at it !  ofcourse now that i am finaly  here early there are no secrets to uncover.  
I rly dont know what i can extrapolate from this , it is surtenly a bad thing that we lost sami being the steward and all that .
Entertaining would be actualy if an elim revealed himself , it would rly help  .
So....  come to think of it ,lets go with this, i am an eliminator !  

HOW GOOD AN EYE DO YOU HAVE ?

[asterion137]

4 hours ago, Manukos said:

Look at it !  ofcourse now that i am finaly  here early there are no secrets to uncover.  
I rly dont know what i can extrapolate from this , it is surtenly a bad thing that we lost sami being the steward and all that .
Entertaining would be actualy if an elim revealed himself , it would rly help  .
So....  come to think of it ,lets go with this, i am an eliminator !  

HOW GOOD AN EYE DO YOU HAVE ?

too obvious for a jester imo

Manukos

Edited October 7, 2017 by asterion137
sp3lling

[Steeldancer]

*facepalm* what the heck, why did sami let themself die of inactivity! The steward is an important role, and of course it's the one thay went inactive *another facepalm* 

Also manukos, what are you trying to do? If you're an elim, why are you telling us? If you're not, why are you saying you are? Your claim makes no logical sense. 

[Alvron]

5 hours ago, Manukos said:

Look at it !  ofcourse now that i am finaly  here early there are no secrets to uncover.  
I rly dont know what i can extrapolate from this , it is surtenly a bad thing that we lost sami being the steward and all that .
Entertaining would be actualy if an elim revealed himself , it would rly help  .
So....  come to think of it ,lets go with this, i am an eliminator !  

HOW GOOD AN EYE DO YOU HAVE ?

A snowflake will lie.  On a hook.  A hook!  In the weeds.  With no hat!

Man and yet not man.  Black trees and thistles.  Twigeye.  Become fire.

[asterion137]

47 minutes ago, Alvron said:

.  Become fire.

I am a stick.

Edited October 7, 2017 by asterion137

[DeTess]

10 hours ago, Mestiv said:

Oh boy, the Steward is dead... That's not good and his death doesn't even give us any leads :/

It seems that Orlok caught attention of Mordor agents. Maybe they just want to eliminate an experienced player? Good thing there was a guard around.

Just FYI, 'Guardsman' is an ability that Mordor could have as well. If they do, it would allow them to do something called a Wounded Gazelle Gambit, in which they both attack and protect one of their own to make him look good. I'm not saying that is what has happened here, as protecting Orlok seems like a very reasonable thing to do, as is attacking him if he's village, but I don't think we should consider him 100% cleared for now.

More thoughts on everyone else coming up in a bit.

edit: and is it just me, or does this insanity thing seem to be spreading? Also, there's a politician vote on Orlok, which seems odd. With the way the votes fell, the obvious move for both lemonelon and the elims would be to force a tie and hope Lemonelon survived. The benefits for Lemonelon are obvious, while the elims could focus the discussion around him for another cycle because of his miraculous survival. That is, of course, assuming that Alvron is village. If he isn't then not risking him suddenly makes a lot of sense for the elims...

Edited October 7, 2017 by randuir

[manukos]

7 hours ago, Steeldancer said:

*facepalm* what the heck, why did sami let themself die of inactivity! The steward is an important role, and of course it's the one thay went inactive *another facepalm* 

Also manukos, what are you trying to do? If you're an elim, why are you telling us? If you're not, why are you saying you are? Your claim makes no logical sense. 

Hmmmm... *facepalms* twigeye ... or is that cosidered a slap ?
I know but it does make ilogical sense 

Dont let me foget @randuir good observation though now i am not sure i it gives them us more insentive to do it since  they'll you'll 
Expect their our predicting that and...i am cofused 

Not that it doesnt pain me but i'll have to go now , ill be back in a couple of hours to see the aftermath

Edited October 7, 2017 by Manukos

[DeTess]

Allright, I've gone through the entire thread forwards and backwards, and have taken notes on just about everyone. lets'get started.

First of all, there's this group of people that I've got a neutral read on because they just haven't posted enough for me to say more: @Jondesu, @Megasif, @asterion137, @Sony and @Straw. I'd like all of you to try and contribute more, if at all possible.

@Steeldancer: I don't have a particularly strong read on Steeldancer either, but that's because I've jsut been seeing some conflicting things from him. His village read on Orlok felt really odd to me at first, but his reference to how Orlok behaved when they where both elims is and adequate explanation. He's also been looking into Alvron and stating suspicion about whether Alv's insanity is just a ploy to avoid scrutiny. AT the moment I've still got a neutral read on him. If Alv is an elim, Or Orlok is indeed village I will lean more vilalge on him, and vice-versa

@Alvron: I got a sudden burst of inspiration and put all of Alvron's random musings together. This, unfortunately, revealed nothing new. As I explained above, I think it means something that the elims didn't put Alvron in a tie situation with the votes. Worst case scenario, Alvron would appear to be cleared good, but that could be fixed relatively easily. An alternative explanation for this could be that the elim politician had actually already voted and couldn't back out of that vote without looking suspicious. Overall I don't have any sort of read on Alvron, but I wouldn't mind lynching him at this point to find out about his alignment, as that might shed some light on some of the others that have voted on him.

@Doc12: Doc has broken his vow to return before the end of C2 and vote! For this crime, eh deserves to be lynched!

In all seriousness though, Doc has posted some nice RP, and has provided some insight in his suspicions and lack of suspicions, as well as some speculation on the hidden mechanics. I also think he'd have been more active and aggressive in voting if he was an elim, so I've got a slight village read on him.

@queensteph: Saying that you believe a villager to be innocent after his lynch is risky, as it would make people wonder whether you're just saying this after the fact to make yourself look village without actually stopping a mis-lynch. I'd say Queensteph is good enough to know this, so I don't think she would have said what she did at the start of this cycle if she where an elim. Slight village read.

@Drake Marshall: As I said before, he made a decent argument about why DA would have been the elims target. This was something I'd been overlooking myself, as I believed BR must have been the elim target given the fact that DA hadn't posted in the thread at all. Orlok did make a good argument about the nobles doing more to save Lemon if things where as Drake suggested. However, In the opposite case, I'd have expected some kind of response from the nobles if Drake was completely wrong as well, so I'm not sure if this means anything.

I do hope Drake's got a couple more of those insights lying around, as opposed to more word-salad. Slight village read.
 

@Manukos: Okay, what's up with saying that you are an elim? An elim wouldn't out himself like that, but the statement also caused distraction and chaos, which wouldn't be a village thing to do either. I'm really confused here.

@Orlok Tsubodai: I'm not going to put a read on Orlok, as he's one of those people I have trouble reading. Overall, though, he is one of the main drivers of discussion, which means I'd like to keep him around for a bit longer. If he does eventually prove to be evil, there'll be more from him to analyze and use to find others. Overall though, Orlok's insights have been good, and he's doing his best to drive discussion. Unfortunately these things aren't particularly alignment indicative form him.

 

13 hours ago, Mestiv said:

Oh boy, the Steward is dead... That's not good and his death doesn't even give us any leads :/

It seems that Orlok caught attention of Mordor agents. Maybe they just want to eliminate an experienced player? Good thing there was a guard around.

This post by Mestiv feels very off. It feels forced to me, like he's writing the opposite of what he's thinking and overcompensating for that. I've got an elim read on him because of that.

@Roadwalker: I haven't got much on roadwalker, but if Orlok proves to be evil, he's one of the first I'd look at, because of this post:

13 hours ago, Roadwalker said:

Oh my. Not good. And for Mestiv's second comment, I remember hearing about wilson getting a two year streak where she was killed only because she was experienced, correct?

I might be wrong, but this post almost feels like it's meant to go with mestiv's to promote the idea that the attack on Orlok was because he was village. This is only really suspicious if we go with my tinfoil that the attack on Orlok was a WGG, which is not certain at all, but definitely a possibility.

@BrightnessRadiant: I haven't got too much on her one way or another. Her vote on Lemon was well-argued in my opinion, but that's the only post I've really been able to get much in the way of content out of. Neutral read.

 

So, overall, I don't have many good suspicions yet. I'm going to put my vote on Mestiv for now.

Vote tally

Manukos(1): asterion

Steeldancer(1): Alvron

Mestiv(1): Randuir

 

Edited October 7, 2017 by randuir

[Straw]

So, on cycle one, I got an item called the One Ring. If I put it on, one of these effects would trigger:

25% chance of death.

50% chance of having every action targeting you this cycle fail.

25% chance of having the ring passed to a random player.

If I did not put the ring on, it would pass to a random player. On cycle one, I put it on, and the middle effect triggered. Putting the ring on causes no secret effects that I know of. This cycle, I did not put the ring on, so it passed to a random player.

[Mestiv]

Ok, I see I need to practice my poker face but honestly, even if I was from Mordor I would be unhappy with players dying due to inactivity. I came here to see what SE is all about and play the game. Players dying this way doesn't seem like a fun aspect of it.

Anyway, I think I'll cast my vote on Alvron, because I'm suspicious of his ramblings.

[Steeldancer]

7 hours ago, Alvron said:

A snowflake will lie.  On a hook.  A hook!  In the weeds.  With no hat!

Man and yet not man.  Black trees and thistles.  Twigeye.  Become fire.

I... don't know what to make of this. 

Fiiirrreee... baaaadddd. Treeeeeesss... gooodddd. 

[Orlok Tsubodai]

16 hours ago, Mestiv said:

Oh boy, the Steward is dead... That's not good and his death doesn't even give us any leads :/

It seems that Orlok caught attention of Mordor agents. Maybe they just want to eliminate an experienced player? Good thing there was a guard around.

@Mestiv, speculation on why I was tracked in that sense doesn't really contribute much. Yes, it was certainly fortuitous that a guard decided to protect me, although no more surprising than my being attacked. What do you think about my being attacked in the context of last cycle's discussion? How does it fit, of you, with a vote being placed on me last cycle?

16 hours ago, Mestiv said:

Sucks to be experienced

Interestingly, I have it better now than I did when I was less experienced. At one point I had a string of six or seven consecutive C1-2 deaths, which was not fun.

16 hours ago, queensteph said:

Ug I got home and caught up on the thread JUST 3 MINUTES AFTER IT WAS CLOSED. I was mad and may have spouted off hatred for Elenion in the heat of the moment. 

(sorry Len I don't actually hate you) OR DO I??

I was suspicious that Lemon was a village politician in their replies to being questioned so I wasn't surprised when they claimed. I figured the misunderstandings were just from the lack of inexperience (since I'm the queen of misunderstandings), and felt inclined to trust them. I didn't have any major suspicions yet as to who the elims might be, but I felt Drake may have just been going along with Alvron's madness charade in order to still look active by contributing to the thread. I still sort of feel this way but then he did add in his opinions and they were my exacts thoughts on the reasoning behind DA's murder (i.e. being that he was probably active in the Noble doc and an Elim!Noble figured out who he was). That doesn't confirm or deny anything, just personally it made me less suspicious of him since our thoughts on the matter lined up.

That's all of what I wanted to say before the last cycle ended but I didn't get the chance since I thought it was ending at 4:30 when it ended at like 4:16 or something.  

I'll be active more now since I'm home.

@queensteph, given you should now have more time, what are your thoughts on the votes for Alv last cycle? Do you think that this could indeed be the expression of Nobles disagreeing with Lemonelon's lynch on the basis I set out yesterday, confirming Drake's theory? What do you think on lynching Alv this cycle?

15 hours ago, Alvron said:

Flip-flap-flopping fish.  Black trees and thistles.

@Alvron, uncertainty on Roadwalker, as well as suspicion on Steeldancer, or was this indicating suspicion of Roadwalker?

14 hours ago, Manukos said:

Look at it !  ofcourse now that i am finaly  here early there are no secrets to uncover.  
I rly dont know what i can extrapolate from this , it is surtenly a bad thing that we lost sami being the steward and all that .
Entertaining would be actualy if an elim revealed himself , it would rly help  .
So....  come to think of it ,lets go with this, i am an eliminator !  

HOW GOOD AN EYE DO YOU HAVE ?

@Manukos, was this intended to draw out opinions, no create discussion, or merely to amuse yourself watching who worked out the secret message within it? Do you have any actual thoughts on the state of the game?

13 hours ago, asterion137 said:

too obvious for a jester imo

Manukos

@asterion137, also manifestly trolling us. He may well be evil, but I certainly don't believe this is a admission, and the likelihood of players misinterpreting it as you have makes me think that an eliminator wouldn't take that risk, so I believe him to be more likely village than eliminator.

12 hours ago, Steeldancer said:

*facepalm* what the heck, why did sami let themself die of inactivity! The steward is an important role, and of course it's the one thay went inactive *another facepalm* 

Also manukos, what are you trying to do? If you're an elim, why are you telling us? If you're not, why are you saying you are? Your claim makes no logical sense. 

@Steeldancer, this seems similar to Mestiv's post at the beginnng of the cycle, except you have th experience to know that you really should be trying to add insight to the thread. What are you thoughts on the game, and players opinions, beyond expressing disappointment in what is obviously an unhelpful situation? Why did you vote on Alv last cycle, and why are you not voting on him this cycle? You claimed to be scrutinising him, yet merely voted, and didn't try to engage. This cycle, I'm struggling to see any opinions from you, yet it seems like you're trying to appear active. For now, I'm going to join Alv. Steeldancer.

8 hours ago, Alvron said:

A snowflake will lie.  On a hook.  A hook!  In the weeds.  With no hat!

Man and yet not man.  Black trees and thistles.  Twigeye.  Become fire.

@Alvron, glad to see that you too caught the meaning. If you feel able to try to convey more specific sentiment, that would be useful. 

6 hours ago, randuir said:

Just FYI, 'Guardsman' is an ability that Mordor could have as well. If they do, it would allow them to do something called a Wounded Gazelle Gambit, in which they both attack and protect one of their own to make him look good. I'm not saying that is what has happened here, as protecting Orlok seems like a very reasonable thing to do, as is attacking him if he's village, but I don't think we should consider him 100% cleared for now.

More thoughts on everyone else coming up in a bit.

edit: and is it just me, or does this insanity thing seem to be spreading? Also, there's a politician vote on Orlok, which seems odd. With the way the votes fell, the obvious move for both lemonelon and the elims would be to force a tie and hope Lemonelon survived. The benefits for Lemonelon are obvious, while the elims could focus the discussion around him for another cycle because of his miraculous survival. That is, of course, assuming that Alvron is village. If he isn't then not risking him suddenly makes a lot of sense for the elims...

@randuir, even if Alvron is village, as I think very possible right now, there's advantage for the eliminators in keeping him alive. His attempts to convey meaning through sentiment rather than wording clearly obfuscate his position, and reduce the value of analysis performed on him. Having us spend a cycle considering lynching him delivers little advantage to the village, and limited information should we actually lynch him.

3 hours ago, randuir said:

Allright, I've gone through the entire thread forwards and backwards, and have taken notes on just about everyone. lets'get started.

First of all, there's this group of people that I've got a neutral read on because they just haven't posted enough for me to say more: @Jondesu, @Megasif, @asterion137, @Sony and @Straw. I'd like all of you to try and contribute more, if at all possible.

@Steeldancer: I don't have a particularly strong read on Steeldancer either, but that's because I've jsut been seeing some conflicting things from him. His village read on Orlok felt really odd to me at first, but his reference to how Orlok behaved when they where both elims is and adequate explanation. He's also been looking into Alvron and stating suspicion about whether Alv's insanity is just a ploy to avoid scrutiny. AT the moment I've still got a neutral read on him. If Alv is an elim, Or Orlok is indeed village I will lean more vilalge on him, and vice-versa

@Alvron: I got a sudden burst of inspiration and put all of Alvron's random musings together. This, unfortunately, revealed nothing new. As I explained above, I think it means something that the elims didn't put Alvron in a tie situation with the votes. Worst case scenario, Alvron would appear to be cleared good, but that could be fixed relatively easily. An alternative explanation for this could be that the elim politician had actually already voted and couldn't back out of that vote without looking suspicious. Overall I don't have any sort of read on Alvron, but I wouldn't mind lynching him at this point to find out about his alignment, as that might shed some light on some of the others that have voted on him.

@Doc12: Doc has broken his vow to return before the end of C2 and vote! For this crime, eh deserves to be lynched!

In all seriousness though, Doc has posted some nice RP, and has provided some insight in his suspicions and lack of suspicions, as well as some speculation on the hidden mechanics. I also think he'd have been more active and aggressive in voting if he was an elim, so I've got a slight village read on him.

@queensteph: Saying that you believe a villager to be innocent after his lynch is risky, as it would make people wonder whether you're just saying this after the fact to make yourself look village without actually stopping a mis-lynch. I'd say Queensteph is good enough to know this, so I don't think she would have said what she did at the start of this cycle if she where an elim. Slight village read.

@Drake Marshall: As I said before, he made a decent argument about why DA would have been the elims target. This was something I'd been overlooking myself, as I believed BR must have been the elim target given the fact that DA hadn't posted in the thread at all. Orlok did make a good argument about the nobles doing more to save Lemon if things where as Drake suggested. However, In the opposite case, I'd have expected some kind of response from the nobles if Drake was completely wrong as well, so I'm not sure if this means anything.

I do hope Drake's got a couple more of those insights lying around, as opposed to more word-salad. Slight village read.
 

@Manukos: Okay, what's up with saying that you are an elim? An elim wouldn't out himself like that, but the statement also caused distraction and chaos, which wouldn't be a village thing to do either. I'm really confused here.

@Orlok Tsubodai: I'm not going to put a read on Orlok, as he's one of those people I have trouble reading. Overall, though, he is one of the main drivers of discussion, which means I'd like to keep him around for a bit longer. If he does eventually prove to be evil, there'll be more from him to analyze and use to find others. Overall though, Orlok's insights have been good, and he's doing his best to drive discussion. Unfortunately these things aren't particularly alignment indicative form him.

 

This post by Mestiv feels very off. It feels forced to me, like he's writing the opposite of what he's thinking and overcompensating for that. I've got an elim read on him because of that.

@Roadwalker: I haven't got much on roadwalker, but if Orlok proves to be evil, he's one of the first I'd look at, because of this post:

I might be wrong, but this post almost feels like it's meant to go with mestiv's to promote the idea that the attack on Orlok was because he was village. This is only really suspicious if we go with my tinfoil that the attack on Orlok was a WGG, which is not certain at all, but definitely a possibility.

@BrightnessRadiant: I haven't got too much on her one way or another. Her vote on Lemon was well-argued in my opinion, but that's the only post I've really been able to get much in the way of content out of. Neutral read.

 

So, overall, I don't have many good suspicions yet. I'm going to put my vote on Mestiv for now.

Vote tally

Manukos(1): asterion

Steeldancer(1): Alvron

Mestiv(1): Randuir

 

@randuir, I'm firstly minded to give Mestiv some benefit of the doubt, being a new player, but if Mestiv is evil, come from the position that his post was intended to make it seem like he was happy I survived, rather than indicate that the attack was because I'm village. Clearly I come from a position of knowing it wasn't a WGG, though, and so have the privilege of not needing to factor that into my analysis. Mestiv is a new player, and as such I don't know whether such a post is in keeping with his normal behaviour, and as such I'd be minded to watch him a little longer before considering lynching him over that.

2 hours ago, Straw said:

So, on cycle one, I got an item called the One Ring. If I put it on, one of these effects would trigger:

25% chance of death.

50% chance of having every action targeting you this cycle fail.

25% chance of having the ring passed to a random player.

If I did not put the ring on, it would pass to a random player. On cycle one, I put it on, and the middle effect triggered. Putting the ring on causes no secret effects that I know of. This cycle, I did not put the ring on, so it passed to a random player.

@Straw, interesting, and thank you for revealing that to the thread. I don't see any advantage of using the Ring, given this - a 25% chance of death for a 50% chance of invulnerability to actions certainly does not seem worth it. That you'd reveal that nothing happened has likely prevented a couple of deaths, which I think is more likely to be a village actions than one of an eliminator. Given you're active, would you mind contributing your thoughts on the discussion?

1 hour ago, Mestiv said:

Ok, I see I need to practice my poker face but honestly, even if I was from Mordor I would be unhappy with players dying due to inactivity. I came here to see what SE is all about and play the game. Players dying this way doesn't seem like a fun aspect of it.

Anyway, I think I'll cast my vote on Alvron, because I'm suspicious of his ramblings.

@Mestiv, why are you suspicious of Alvron's ramblings? 

[Steeldancer]

6 minutes ago, Orlok Tsubodai said:

@Mestiv, speculation on why I was tracked in that sense doesn't really contribute much. Yes, it was certainly fortuitous that a guard decided to protect me, although no more surprising than my being attacked. What do you think about my being attacked in the context of last cycle's discussion? How does it fit, of you, with a vote being placed on me last cycle?

Interestingly, I have it better now than I did when I was less experienced. At one point I had a string of six or seven consecutive C1-2 deaths, which was not fun.

@queensteph, given you should now have more time, what are your thoughts on the votes for Alv last cycle? Do you think that this could indeed be the expression of Nobles disagreeing with Lemonelon's lynch on the basis I set out yesterday, confirming Drake's theory? What do you think on lynching Alv this cycle?

@Alvron, uncertainty on Roadwalker, as well as suspicion on Steeldancer, or was this indicating suspicion of Roadwalker?

@Manukos, was this intended to draw out opinions, no create discussion, or merely to amuse yourself watching who worked out the secret message within it? Do you have any actual thoughts on the state of the game?

@asterion137, also manifestly trolling us. He may well be evil, but I certainly don't believe this is a admission, and the likelihood of players misinterpreting it as you have makes me think that an eliminator wouldn't take that risk, so I believe him to be more likely village than eliminator.

@Steeldancer, this seems similar to Mestiv's post at the beginnng of the cycle, except you have th experience to know that you really should be trying to add insight to the thread. What are you thoughts on the game, and players opinions, beyond expressing disappointment in what is obviously an unhelpful situation? Why did you vote on Alv last cycle, and why are you not voting on him this cycle? You claimed to be scrutinising him, yet merely voted, and didn't try to engage. This cycle, I'm struggling to see any opinions from you, yet it seems like you're trying to appear active. For now, I'm going to join Alv. Steeldancer.

@Alvron, glad to see that you too caught the meaning. If you feel able to try to convey more specific sentiment, that would be useful. 

@randuir, even if Alvron is village, as I think very possible right now, there's advantage for the eliminators in keeping him alive. His attempts to convey meaning through sentiment rather than wording clearly obfuscate his position, and reduce the value of analysis performed on him. Having us spend a cycle considering lynching him delivers little advantage to the village, and limited information should we actually lynch him.

@randuir, I'm firstly minded to give Mestiv some benefit of the doubt, being a new player, but if Mestiv is evil, come from the position that his post was intended to make it seem like he was happy I survived, rather than indicate that the attack was because I'm village. Clearly I come from a position of knowing it wasn't a WGG, though, and so have the privilege of not needing to factor that into my analysis. Mestiv is a new player, and as such I don't know whether such a post is in keeping with his normal behaviour, and as such I'd be minded to watch him a little longer before considering lynching him over that.

@Straw, interesting, and thank you for revealing that to the thread. I don't see any advantage of using the Ring, given this - a 25% chance of death for a 50% chance of invulnerability to actions certainly does not seem worth it. That you'd reveal that nothing happened has likely prevented a couple of deaths, which I think is more likely to be a village actions than one of an eliminator. Given you're active, would you mind contributing your thoughts on the discussion?

@Mestiv, why are you suspicious of Alvron's ramblings? 

My issue with Alvron is that it's impossible to have a conversation, to figure out if I should vote on him again. Especially when I still don't understand what he's saying. 

I've been thinking about who I should vote on, manukos or alv. Alvs comments are unintelligible. But manukos's points are just... completely illogical to me. I don't understand what he's saying, or why he is saying it. 

I should also probably go and re-read the rules about roles. 

For now, manukos . Alvron, if you're trying to say something, I would prefer that you actually say it. But others seem to be getting something out of your comments, so I'll just write you off as using the weird comments as a different play style. 

My thoughts on Orlok- either he's village, or he's a WGG elim in deep. My gut tells me the attack was not a WGG though. His play style was village before hand, and it makes sense for the elims to take out a smart active villager like Orlok. 

Im feeling a newbie tone from Mestiv. I don't feel like lynching him yet, because how would he have learned to not make slightly unguarded comments?

I do wish we could hear from some more players. I would rather we not lose any more valuable roles due to inactivity. 

[Elenion]

Due to scheduling reasons, this cycle will be extended by 1 hour and 45 minutes until 5:00 MST.