Quick Fix Game 27: Lord of the Lynches: Terror in Minas Tirith

[DeTess]

At the end of last cycle, this was the vote tally if I'm not mistaken:

Asterion (1) - Randuir

Roadwalker (3) - Orlok, BR, jondesu

Manukos (1) - Asterion

Jondesu (1) - Mestiv

In other words, someone added a vote to Jondesu. Now, it could have been Drake, but I don't remember him expressing suspicion of Jondesu. Another possiblity is that it was an elim politician.

"But Randuir, Drake was a politician. Couldn't he have been the one that voted on DA in C1, meaning that there is no elim politician?"

Ah, very astute, my dear sockpuppet. However, you might remember Drake mentioning that he thought that DA had been the work of the elims. He probably wouldn't have said this if he had been the one to vote on him, given that he is village.

There could have been a third village politician as well, who decided to move against Jondesu for some reason, but I don't see why a villager would see the need for stealth in moving against him.

If we assume that it was an elim politician that did it, it means we can rule out the people that voted from being that elim politician. It doesn't rule out too many people, but it might be a good start. It's late here, so I'll eb back after I've had some sleep with some more thoughts(hopefully).

Edited October 8, 2017 by randuir

[asterion137]

1 hour ago, Alvron said:

 Make him shorter, like the others.

That's a bit morbid, if i read it right. I agree though, that Manukos is our best lynch rn.

[Jondesu]

I believe I have been officially appoint the Minister of Communication for the Nobles, so I may come in and state something they wished me to say. If I do, I’ll denote it by putting it on a separate line, but of course it’ll be paraphrased and not copied verbatim.

Why is Manukos suspect? I still think that was a very weird ploy if he’s Elim, but dangerously close to successful if he’s really a jester. Could be he’s just messing with us, too.

[Orlok Tsubodai]

12 hours ago, Alvron said:

Oakmus N.  Black trees and thistles.  Loud but not loud.  A little piece of ginger glass!  Make him shorter, like the others.  What’s in your blood?

@Alvron, I appreciate that you're taken a view that clarity of communication won't be your forte this game, but any explanation of this vote beyond what I presume to be arguing that Manukos is making posts that don't really say anything would be appreciated. At this point in the game, we do need to scrutinise you.

11 hours ago, asterion137 said:

That's a bit morbid, if i read it right. I agree though, that Manukos is our best lynch rn.

@asterion137, would you care to explain why you've joined Alv's vote? What are your own reasons for suspicion of Manukos? His gambit was certainly unconventional, but I don't think it's really indicative of his being evil, and think that your actions look to me like trying to get an easy lynch, rather than representing an attempt to solve the game. Unless you can convince me otherwise, Asterion.

@randuir, what are your own thoughts on the state of the game, and your suspicions?

More generally, despite the Long Game starting, we do need to maintain activity here, or we lose all chance of solving the game.

 

[DeTess]

Okay, so going back to my line of thought from last night. If Straw hadn't retracted his vote on Jondesu last minute, the politician vote would have put Jondesu at risk. This could have been an unusual form of a WGG, in which elim!poltiician tried to make it look like the elims wanted elim!Jondesu lynched, but this seems a bit of a round-about way to go about it (plus, Jondesu would probably have made the observations I did in that case to make sure no one missed this event*).

If this was an elim attempt to take Jondesu out with the lynch, then it stands to reason that some of those that voted on him are elims as well. Mestiv was the one that kept his vote on Jondesu, while his reasoning was that he was just at the top of the list of less active people, and the fact that others joined the vote was a reason to keep on it (even though when he presented this reasoning, the other vote by Straw had retracted already, though those posts where close together, so he might not have seen that).

There is one other thing that stands out, however. If we assume that Jondesu claimed in the Noble doc, why would the elims then try lynching him, rather than just putting in a kill against him? The only reason I can think of is that they didn't want to reveal the presence of an elim in the Noble Doc by making it seem like he died of 'Natural causes'. Still, if they did move against him through the lynch it would put them at risk if they got spotted.

Ninja'd by Orlok at around this time.

I'll try to give more thoughts on the game in a bit. I'd like to hear @Jondesu's answers to my question from last cycle before I do that, if he's willing to answer them, that is.

 

*unless, of course, me and Jondesu are on the elim team together, though in that case I probably would have ignored the possiblity of it being a WGG.

Edited October 9, 2017 by randuir

[Sony]

15 hours ago, asterion137 said:

That's a bit morbid, if i read it right. I agree though, that Manukos is our best lynch rn.

As Orlok said, why do you think Manukos is the best lynch right now? 

You've been wanting to lynch Manukos for the past two cycles and you have not given a reason to vote for him besides that you think that his elim claim was odd. With what @randuir pointed out last cycle that most of your comments seem like one-liners (I know you said SATs, and trust me, I know those take a lot of work, but you've only commented on Manukos so far and haven't really talked about anyone else) and your "knee-jerk" reaction to remove your vote off Manukos warrants a lynch vote for this cycle. Asterion

@randuir I'm not really sure I follow with what you're saying. I feel like you just put out like 5 possible theories in one post  It is a little early in the morning though, so my brain hasn't fully activated yet. xD

@Megasif @queensteph @Doc12 @Manukos It's important that we hear what you think about the game so far, I believe all of you did not post last cycle; therefore, if you do not post this cycle, you'll die of inactivity. 

[asterion137]

4 hours ago, Orlok Tsubodai said:

@asterion137, would you care to explain why you've joined Alv's vote? What are your own reasons for suspicion of Manukos? His gambit was certainly unconventional, but I don't think it's really indicative of his being evil, and think that your actions look to me like trying to get an easy lynch, rather than representing an attempt to solve the game. Unless you can convince me otherwise, Asterion.

@Sony

because if he does flip elim we probably lynch jondesu next. Lynching manukos could theoretically swing the game hugely in our favor if he does turn out to be elim. A manukos lynch gives us much more information than any other one, since he's been the topic of more discussion than most players. How does lynching me give any information at all?

[manukos]

I am terribly sorry for not posting yesterday ,
That being said i'd probably have gone  with roadwalker as well ,

Now that he has been proven to be good tho i think that we have enough infotmation to start making educated guesses insted of wishfull shots in the dark 
On that not i'd like to share a brief rundown of my views on some indeviduals 
Randuir/alvron/br : i think that at least one of them is an elim for the teams to be kinda balanced but i wouldnt risk a lynch as 2/3 were insightfull and 1 is fun 
Mestiv voted on jodensu (see below) so this could mean he is evil ,  but as randuir so astutly said , why not flat out asassinate him and do it with lynching?
Asterion would be my guess for best target , however his bandwagon today without excuses seems too fitting for an elim , so i am split
Lastly about the usualy innactives like megasif queensteph and doc i dont think i can make an accurate assesment 
Yo, i think i am missing something tho , oh the possitives 

I would have to place sony and straw in the middle to good category both have periodicaly made posts that promote discussion as seen by the  above
So , as for the mostly good i think orloc is almost surely loyal to gondor and i am leaning with jodensu being good as well tho i cant be certain  

End of topic, next up , my vote : i think i am going to vote for "notaries371" but i want to hear what he has to say for himself 
Zzzz, eyelids ...are ...heavy , writing these posts is hard if i want to keep encryptions mostly consistent so i'll keep posts per day to a minimum

BUT THIS ONE IS QUITE HARD!

{edit : i got ninjad twice in one post , i am too slow a typer , after reading senorita731's response i would have to say that i agree with the gist of it . usualy trading a death for an exoneration is a fair trade especialy early on, and i have even volunteered to take the hit in the past  (tho id prefer if i was the one who got to live), however at that point in the game i cant go with that plan , i think we need an elim kill  more than a soft clear that could die the next day , having said that i agree with him on the last point that killing him wont give us that much info (if he isnt an elim ) so i'd prefer to go with a better option if anyone has a better alternative , until then i am puting my vote on asterion137}
 

Edited October 9, 2017 by Manukos
asterion the ninja

[DeTess]

I'd been planning on posting another once-over of all the players, but I'm coming down with a cold right now and am not at my sharpest, so this'll likely have to do for today.

Now, let's start with Manukos. his 'I'm an elim' post keeps being rather confusing, but his explanation that he was trying to shake things up is, in my opinion, the best I'v seen out of the possibilities. That doesn't mean it's a good explanation, just that it has less holes than 'Manukos is an elim applying advanced reverse psychology' or 'Manukos is a jester trying to get himself killed'. Asterion does make an interesting point about information that could be gained from Manukos's Lynch. However, he doesn't explain how Manukos flipping village would help us. "We should lynch him because if he's evil it'll help us" isn't much of an explanation if you don't explain thoroughly why someone would be evil. If we use information gained if someone proves to be evil as the only reason for a lynch, we should all lynch Orlok, as if he's evil we can probably catch a significant portion of the elim team.

Right, then there's Asterion. He's not exactly wrong in saying that lynching him won't gain us much info. If he flips elim, we know that Manukos is probably good, but that's about it. If he proves to be good, there isn't much info to be gained. Of course, as I said above, this isn't the only measure by which we should judge if someone needs to be lynched. I hoenstly don't think elim!Asterion would be trying so hard to lynch Manukos, especially because he's been getting blowback for doing this. So I don't really think Asterion is evil either.

For that matter, if I had to choose between Asterion and Manukos, I would go with Manukos. Asterion's behavior in the end of last thread and in this one just seem more village-like to me. Elims would not be trying so hard to get someone lynched over multiple cycles unless they truly believe it's the game-ending move.

Now, to move on to other people. First, I'm by now reasonably certain that Jondesu isn't lying about being a Noble. If he hadn't been, someone would have come to call him out on it by now. Him being a Noble doesn't say anything about his alignment though. I'm fine with leaving him alive for now though (provided he actually shares some info in his new 'role'), as being able to talk to the Nobles without needing to have anyone else reveal might prove to be useful, even if the man in between is an elim (he'd probaby have a hard-time actually lying or twisting words if there are other nobles watching over his shoulder).

Now, for a short intermezzo: @Megasif, @Doc12, @queensteph, though I wouldn't mind knowing the alignments of at least some of you by the end of the cycle, I'd prefer to see you post your thoughts even more.

Oh, this reminds me of something. If we, for the moment, assume the the politician vote that had been placed on Jondesu is indeed done by an elim then there are only a coupe of suspects: Sony, Alvron, Doc and Manukos. I've reduced it to these four by checking who voted this cycle (no votes disappeared, so all of the voters are clean). It probably wasn't Straw, as retracting your vote and then throwing it right back again using a power seems odd. Finally, I can rule out Megasif and queensteph, as neither have been online since Saturday as of the time I'm writing this. Now, of course, people that are not these 4 could still be evil,but I'm fairly sure there is at least 1 elim among these four.

I've explained above why I'm not overly suspicious of Manukos right now. I don't know one way or another about Alvron, because despite him showing at least some reactions to various posts, it still doesn't particularly allow for analysis. It could be doc, but I don't have a particular read on him one way or another. His play and post-style seems similar to that of the last item I played with him and was in the same thread (so LG37 doesn't count), but he was an elim in that game, and didn't get caught, so I'm not sure how indicative that is.

I've never played with Sony before. He seems to be mostly coasting along and keeping his posts short, but he does post some insights now and again, which is generally fairly NAI behavior. It is of Note that this cycle is the first time he has voted, though, despite voicing suspicions before. It makes one wonder if he was intentionally refraining from voting so that he could keep his ability ready for use without standing out int he vote count, however.

So I'm somewhat torn between voting on Alvron and Sony right now. However, The fact that Sony has been mostly abstaining form voting until now does turn the scales against him slightly, so Sony. My evidence form him potentially being an elim is really quite circumstantial, but I believe this is a line of questioning that needs to be pursued.

Vote tally:

Manukos(2): Alvron, Asterion

Asterion(2): Orlok, SOny

Sony(1): Randuir

Edited October 9, 2017 by randuir

[manukos]

Great post @randuir , also thanks for conveying my view on asterion so well .  you make some great points and i am inclined to follow you 
Just, could you explain better  why you think it was an elim responsible for  the politician vote ?

IF I DIE BEFORE YOU FIND OUT MY SECRET I'LL BE MAD

[DeTess]

First of all, it would make sense for the elims to try and remove a Noble, especially if they havecone of their own among them. Even if they haven't got an elim among the nobles reducing their numbers will reduce their information and reduce the chances of the noble kill hitting an elim.

Second of all, I don't see why a villager would want to anonimously vote on Jondesu, while it would make sense for the elims to try and sneak a vote in without tipping their hand. 

This isn't 100% certain, if course, and it depends in part on Drake having been right about DA (which would suggest the elims both have a noble and would like to seize control if the noble kill).

[Jondesu]

Sorry for not answering already, @randuir, I forgot that question. I claimed last cycle sometime before I revealed here, I think (too lazy to go double check right at the moment). DA had posted in the Noble doc, and anyone familiar with his writing style at all would have known it was him, so it’s very possible and likely that there’s an Elim noble. I don’t expect to live much longer myself, but I’m hoping they’ll figure someone might protect me and at least give me another cycle. I can’t honestly say I’d recommend a guard protect me, but of course do what you think is best, guardsmen.

[manukos]

oh yes and before i sleep , sony 
tho i'd hope for some more votes before the cycle is over , so that our friend the politician dosent do any weird things

 

[BrightnessRadiant]

Hey guys, sorry I was inactive for this cycle...I had church yesterday and babysitting still going today so I might not get to be on before it ends. I'll try my best to make it tho, but I thought I should give a heads up.

[Mestiv]

@Elenion that was some really good writing! The last sentence gave me chills! 

Sorry for my lack of activity this cycle. I have a lot of things on my mind IRL.

Anyway, like someone suspected, when I explained my vote on Jondesu yesterday I didn't notice that someone else revoked their vote. I'll try to not make the same mistake today and wait with voting on one of the less active players closer to the deadline. (Yes, I'm still convinced that Mordor lurks in the inactivity shadow.)

Jondesu, how do we actually know that you are the "Minister of Communication for the Nobles"? You might be making it up, and the real nobles won't say a thing not to reveal themselves. Although, to be honest, I have no idea what you'd gained for claiming to be noble except exposing yourself to the Elim team more...  Guess I'm not experienced enough to read through some of the tactics.

[Orlok Tsubodai]

5 hours ago, asterion137 said:

@Sony

because if he does flip elim we probably lynch jondesu next. Lynching manukos could theoretically swing the game hugely in our favor if he does turn out to be elim. A manukos lynch gives us much more information than any other one, since he's been the topic of more discussion than most players. How does lynching me give any information at all?

Interesting. I'm of the pretty strong view that Manukos is highly unlikely to be evil, and so is unlikely to yield significant information at all. His gambit was an attempt to get encryption into his post - the capitalised letters spell "Lies", and I don't see his actions as having been remotely advantageous from the point of view of an eliminator.  If you flip evil, we can look at those others who have supported a Manukos lynch - namely Doc and Alv with greater scrutiny, and at those who have defended you this cycle - namely Randuir. Further, given I think it not unlikely that you are evil, we would buy ourselves a dead eliminator, which is clearly useful.

@randuir, in response to your question regarding Asterion, I think Manukos represents a relatively easy lynch

2 hours ago, randuir said:

First of all, it would make sense for the elims to try and remove a Noble, especially if they havecone of their own among them. Even if they haven't got an elim among the nobles reducing their numbers will reduce their information and reduce the chances of the noble kill hitting an elim.

Second of all, I don't see why a villager would want to anonimously vote on Jondesu, while it would make sense for the elims to try and sneak a vote in without tipping their hand. 

This isn't 100% certain, if course, and it depends in part on Drake having been right about DA (which would suggest the elims both have a noble and would like to seize control if the noble kill).

@randuir, what advantage would a secret vote on Jondesu pose? It certainly wasn't going to lynch him. 

Having looked through the Politician votes, it's completely impossible to narrow down the identity of our rogue politician. We can't rule out Drake having made the cycle two or four votes, given we know he wasn't a politician, and given he didn't vote on either cycle. If we assume it wasn't Drake, the potential politicians are Sony, Alv, Doc, Steph, Manukos, Straw, and Megasif, which doesn't really get us anywhere.

@randuir, @Manukos, I don't really see the case against Sony. The evidence doesn't point to him being any more likely to be the politician than any of the other players, and it's fairly typical for new players to lurk. What information do you think it would produce, Randuir? Manukos, what are your reasons for following Randuir's vote? Why do you think his case is sound?

[manukos]

@Orlok Tsubodai well he made cases against most of the others , and i dont think it is highly unlikely that the politician cast the vote before straw subtrackted  his , also since i had my doubts about asterion it seemed/ seems like a better alternative 

uhhhh fine i'll stay awake until the turnover , just dont expect high quality of posts i am becoming sleepy 

P.S. edit: just to be clear, if the votes dont change until the end of the day i am changing mine back to senorita in expectation for the politician

 

 

Edited October 9, 2017 by Manukos

[Mestiv]

Manukos, you have my vote. I'll explain later why, when I have some time. (I wouldn't be able to color your name red later on mobile :P)

[Orlok Tsubodai]

13 minutes ago, Manukos said:

@Orlok Tsubodai well he made cases against most of the others , and i dont think it is highly unlikely that the politician cast the vote before straw subtrackted  his , also since i had my doubts about asterion it seemed/ seems like a better alternative 

uhhhh fine i'll stay awake until the turnover , just dont expect high quality of posts i am becoming sleepy 

P.S. edit: just to be clear, if the votes dont change until the end of the day i am changing mine back to senorita

 

@Manukos, your doubts about Asterion being? Would you care to set out why you think Sony is more likely to be evil than Asterion? You agree with his case against Doc to such an extent that you rule him out from being the politician? I don't really understand your rationale here.

[BrightnessRadiant]

Heyyyyy I made it back before the end of the cycle! (the kids I'm babysitting went to sleep fast for their nap xD woooo lol)

So, I read the cycle but it was a quick read lol...last cycle my two main choices for a vote where road and asterion. Road flipped village which is a bother, but it will let me go back over his posts next cycle when I get the chance to see if I can find anything. I honestly don't want to lynch Manukos just for that post he made and it seems like that has gotten really blown out of proportion. However, it did cause a very obvious rift between him and asterion so I doubt they'd both be elims anyways. If Asterion flips elim, I'd be pretty sure that Manu was cleared at that point so that'd be helpful. But if he flips village then I'd take a closer look at Manukos. They could also just be two villagers who rubbed each other the wrong way because that happens too xD. But either way, I think enough debate has gone on around them to warrant trying to find out one or the other's alignment so for now I'll go with Asterion.

I don't think I'll be overly busy next cycle so I should be able to post more finally.

 

[manukos]

mainly the fact that he is focushing on me too much and by doing that drawing atention to himself

 

 

[Alvron]

10 hours ago, Orlok Tsubodai said:

@Alvron, I appreciate that you're taken a view that clarity of communication won't be your forte this game, but any explanation of this vote beyond what I presume to be arguing that Manukos is making posts that don't really say anything would be appreciated. At this point in the game, we do need to scrutinise you.

Flip-flap-flopping fish.  Oink. says the Willow tree.  Oink.  Oink!  The Void doesn't shine but wants to.

The Eye is watching.  I am here but not here.

Edit:
The paper kills:
Oakmus N (3): Zunn the Mad, Hobo Baggins, Mestiv
Hobo Baggins (3): Annatar, Sony, Oakmus N, Brightness Radiant
Sony (2): Randuir, Oakmus N

[Alvron]

Oakmus N with leaves of green?  In the weeds.  In your hand.  And melt.

Findecano Nenharma.  A snowflake will lie.  Man and yet not man?  Moths at sunset!  With no hat.
Speak but don't talk.  Prick, prick, prickles.  Blood in the mist.  The worms are in my head and they wiggle.  Wiggle-wiggle-wiggle-wiggle!

Hobo Baggins.  The dreams begin.  Annatar, I can smell the sun!

[manukos]

as pomised with 20 seconds to spare sony Asterion 

i am not happy i think aster isnt but it is better to have conclusive results

 

Edited October 9, 2017 by Manukos

[Doc12]

I'm so sorry I've not been posting, the weekend has come with a flood of homework that I did not anticipate and I am stressed beyond belief. I stayed up to three last night working on two separate papers, and the load is not letting up. It does not excuse me for neglecting my promise to myself to post here, and I promise that I will be back. Perhaps not this cycle, but I will not abandon this game entirely and be inactive. I'm truly sorry, but I do not have the time to actually read through yesterday and today's discussion and analyse it. If I am spared, I will come back next cycle, I promise.