Quick Fix Game 27: Lord of the Lynches: Terror in Minas Tirith

[DeTess]

I might have missed the part in LG33 where the elims went through a number of hoops to get Orlok trusted. I thought he just got unlucky, went insane, and everyone else just kind-of considered him good when he returned. I died relatively early in the game though, so I might have missed it. Anyway, can you explain why you think sacrificing not 1 but 2 kills to try and get Orlok trusted by the village would be worth it, especially when he wasn't really on anyone's radar yet (for as far as I know)?

I mean, you should probably never trust Orlok 100%, but given how slow this game has been, I'll take the chance to limit the amount of ground I've got to cover to find the elims.

[Orlok Tsubodai]

38 minutes ago, Roadwalker said:

Exactly what we are supposed to think.

The initial point stands, Roadwalker. It's an awful lot of work for the eliminator team to put me in a position of tentative trust, and at the cost of two kills. Adding a level of recursion to it doesn't really deliver a benefit, and costs a kill.

37 minutes ago, randuir said:

Just a warning: this post is going to be a bit rambling.

So, first of all, I'd like to spend some more time thinking about the attack on Orlok. As I said, the double-tap really seems overdoing it if it's a WGG, so I think the more likely scenario is that the elims really want Orlok to die. This strikes me as somewhat odd. It doesn't seem like Orlok is on to any of the elims yet, and since this game doesn't have any PM's it's unlikely Orlok has said something to the wrong people to make himself a target. The only thing I can think of is that he's a Noble and has somehow outed himself in their doc, and if that was the case I think he might have claimed at this point given that the elims seem to be targeting him quite consistently.

This means that the elims main motivation for targeting Orlok two cycles in a row could quite possibly be to get an experienced player out of the game before he becomes a threat. There are a number of players that are unlikely to use this kind of mindset.

...Unfortunately, most of those aren't playing this game, so it doesn't allow me to actually limit the number of suspects much, if at all. Still, I feel this might be worth pointing out, as there might be some others that can do something with this line of reasoning.

Anyway, there is still at least 1 politician out there who might just be an elim. Therefore we shouldn't leave the vote to this politician. Roadwalker's opening comment this cycle makes me slightly more suspicious of him as he seems to have made a 180 turn regarding the possibility of a WGG (which he didn't even seem to consider at the start of last cycle). I makes me wonder if he's an elim trying to salvage their second lost kill by using it to make Orlok look even more suspicious. Asterion also has caught my attention because, though he posts a couple of times per cycle, he isn't actually saying anything. Looking back through his posts, they are almost all one-liners with most not really relating to the game at all. I know that he is quite capable of putting up more from past games as well, so for now I'm going to vote on him (asterion).

 

Fear-killing, as attacking experienced players for their experience alone has been known, certainly used to be more common as a tactic, but was mitigated by the propensity of lurchers to protect experienced players. This tendency has diminished in recent games, which has made fear-killing a more effective strategy once more. That said, there aren't many players in this game who will have seen that trend, and I don't think anyone holds a serious grudge against me - indeed, I hope not.

@randuir, it's somewhat interesting that you raise that accusation against Roadwalker (which I think has some credibility), but then pivot towards something similar to a poke vote on Asterion - or at least a vote that would reveal limited information should he be lynched. Why is this?

 

26 minutes ago, Roadwalker said:

Ahm. Did you play Ecth's blackout, where Orlok vig-killed ALL of the elims in one stroke? Anyway, that's going against my point.

Well. Orlok was attacked again. And yes, I pretty much made a 180 turn after sleeping on it. I don't like you and Orlok both pushing that "it is so ridiculous, no eliminator would ever do this." In LG:33 we went through some interesting schemes to get Orlok trusted by the village.

@Roadwalker, given I'm certain it's not a WGG, and given I have scrutiny on me, what do you expect me to do other than to defend myself? I'm minded to find myself agreeing with Randuir's thought that your pushing this narrative is an attempt to get my lynched, given I have guard protection and so can't be killed. I do intend to do a read through of the game, but for now, Roadwalker.

 

[DeTess]

12 minutes ago, Orlok Tsubodai said:

 

@randuir, it's somewhat interesting that you raise that accusation against Roadwalker (which I think has some credibility), but then pivot towards something similar to a poke vote on Asterion - or at least a vote that would reveal limited information should he be lynched. Why is this?

The main reason I didn't vote for roadwalker was that I can't rule out that he's just become very suspicious of the kills around you. The way he mentioned it does make me suspicious of him, but unlike with some other players, I can't rule out to a reasonable degree that he's being sincere in his suspicion. I also don't think his lynch will give that much more info than asterion.

Part off my vote on Asterion is in that I know that he's capable of putting out more content, so that makes me suspicious of his quietness, while it also makes me hope that he'll put out more content for me to get a better read on him if he's put under the thread of a lynch.

Edit: to further explain the statement regarding info: If evil!roadwalker is lynched, it would further reinforce the fact that Orlok is probably good. Lynching evil!asterion would suggest that Manukos might be good. If either of them is lynched and flips village, it might be worthwhile to take another look at their suspicions. That is the basic info that comes from their alignments if either of them is lynched. deeper analysis shows more, but I don't think Roadwalker would give more info than Asterion, and I'm roughly equally suspicious of the two of them.

Edited October 8, 2017 by randuir

[asterion137]

1 hour ago, randuir said:

Looking back through his posts, they are almost all one-liners with most not really relating to the game at all. I know that he is quite capable of putting up more from past games as well, so for now I'm going to vote on him (asterion).

 

School year is a thing btw. SAT is also a thing.

[DeTess]

2 minutes ago, asterion137 said:

School year is a thing btw. SAT is also a thing.

Yeah, okay , but... (actually checks what SAT is). Oh, that's actually a good excuse. Still, if you've got time, even sharing a couple of opinions on various players (say, Orlok, Drake, and 1 or 2 others) could help with settling my suspicions, if you've got time.

[asterion137]

Manukos's elim claim seemed kind of odd, and I still have ptsd from a Town of Salem game where the SK claimed in every death note and we didn't kill him until LyLo. I'm getting an elim vibe from Roadwalker, but I read Roadwalker wrong more often than not, so I'll hold off on voting him.

[Sony]

2 minutes ago, asterion137 said:

Manukos's elim claim seemed kind of odd, and I still have ptsd from a Town of Salem game where the SK claimed in every death note and we didn't kill him until LyLo. I'm getting an elim vibe from Roadwalker, but I read Roadwalker wrong more often than not, so I'll hold off on voting him.

I believe it did seem a little odd, yes. In the last cycle, you removed your vote on Manukos, but now you've voted for him again. (I'm pretty sure that's a vote, even though the color looks a little orange to me  ) Why did you remove your vote last cycle? 

@Roadwalker Can you explain why you did a 180 on the possibility of a WGG?

I'm a little suspicious of Jondesu right now due to the fact that his only post last cycle was to defend Manukos, which @Megasif and @queensteph pointed out. 

I think it's too early for me to put up a possible lynch vote, so I'm going to wait until later on in the cycle if I think someone should be lynched. 

Also, @Elbereth I believe that the cycle ends at 5:15 EST and 3:15 MST, rather than 3:15 EST and 1:15 MST, unless I'm wrong. 

 

 

[Elbereth]

1 minute ago, Sony said:

Also, @Elbereth I believe that the cycle ends at 5:15 EST and 3:15 MST, rather than 3:15 EST and 1:15 MST, unless I'm wrong. 

Shhh.  

[Mestiv]

Ok, first of all, I'm not sure how to understand Steeldancers note. Turns out he did tell the truth that he's just a scribe.

I have no idea if that's normal in those games, but there's a bunch of players that are barely active. I suspect that this might be some kind of laying low strategy by the elim team. If they don't show themselves too much, they don't pull attention to themselves. Like, look at Alvron, he made himself very visible and got lynch votes (btw. his mysterious writing style seems to hide some kind of meaning. I think I'll let him be for now, maybe he has some interesting role that makes him write like that). Manukos made himself a center of attention and got some votes too.

I think I'll start voting on the mostly inactive players. Going from the top of the list, my vote goes to Jondesu.

[DeTess]

1 hour ago, Mestiv said:

I have no idea if that's normal in those games, but there's a bunch of players that are barely active.

There's usually a couple, but it seems like there's more in this game than in others I've played.

Edited October 8, 2017 by randuir

[Straw]

Hmm... For now my vote will go on Jondesu.

[asterion137]

2 hours ago, Sony said:

I believe it did seem a little odd, yes. In the last cycle, you removed your vote on Manukos, but now you've voted for him again. (I'm pretty sure that's a vote, even though the color looks a little orange to me  ) Why did you remove your vote last cycle? 

 

That was kind of a knee-jerk reaction, plus we know now steeldancer was inno.

[BrightnessRadiant]

Asterion (1) - Randuir

Roadwalker (2) - Orlok, BR

Manukos (1) - Asterion

Jondesu (2) - Mestiv, Straw

This is a rather quiet cycle...I need to stop posting at the end of the cycle and not at the beginning. QF are just so faaaaast! 

Okay, so, This is a bad vote tally if we've got a possible elim politician out there. It's very easily manipulated. I need to look over each person...ya know what that meeeeaaaans? A BR mega post! yay! haha

Asterion:

1. Votes on Manukos because of the post he made that started so much controversy. (could have been an elim jumping on that to get a villager lynched but it could have been actual suspicion *shrugs) kinda reading neutral for this cuz I could see a villager or an elim doing it

2. removes his vote when Manukos explained why he made that earlier post. (*shrugs..guess he believed his reasons) - not really a read from that heh

3. but then revoted on Manukos this cycle for that same post? He also stated his suspicion of roadwalker but didn't vote on him. (possible that they're teammates?) -reading a bit of an elim vibe for this post. 

overall he hasn't posted that much to analyze because he said he's busy irl..I'd kinda like him to stick around and be more active so I can study his every move xD. 

Roadwalker:

1. says he thought Alv might've been posting in riddles to avoid scrutiny at first but then considered it could be similar to Stink's actions in El's QF (didn't play that one but he tried to get himself lynched and then you all died for voting on him, right?) - not really a read for this

2. comments about me and DA having been voted on by politicians and King Cole being the elim kill (doesn't give any kind of opinion on it tho *shrugs) -kinda a neutral to elim read on this because he didn't really offer any opinion on the cycle's events...just stated them.

3. again doesn't give opinions on the cycle's results..just says they're not good. Also, points out that Wilson had a long death streak just for being experienced because Mestiv asked about Orlok being attacked. (I kinda feel like Road is posting enough to stay active but not really adding many opinions of his own) -kinda an elim read for this considering this was the third cycle and he still hadn't even voted for a lynch once. (possibly just flying low...wait...isn't he an eagle? xD accidental pun wooo haha

4. Comments thoughts on a third faction - NAI 

5. Says he might vote for Manukos or Asterion(for immediately jumping on Manukos' post and saying he might be a jester) I'm not really sure why he said he might vote on Manu tho? I didn't see a reason unless is was also because he thought he was a jester...but then wouldn't he want to not vote on him? I dunno xD I guess I'm a bit confused by that post. - anyways he still never voted so starting to read him as an elim pretty heavily at this point after reading through all of his posts. He's been active enough to have gotten more involved, but has never even once cast a vote for the lynch.

After that read through I've decided to go with voting Roadwalker 

For Manukos and Jon...I've not seen much from either of them aside from that post that Manu made which caused so much discussion (which isn't always a bad thing :P) I'd mostly like them to post more if they can.

Edit: Sorry I forgot to edit the vote tally to add my own vote xD

Edited October 8, 2017 by BrightnessRadiant

[Jondesu]

Interesting. First Sony, then Mestiv, then Straw put votes on me for seemingly different reasons, though it’s hard to tell with Straw not really explaining a reason. 

@Sony, mind reading my explanation and telling what didn’t convince you?

@Mestiv, why did you choose me despite the fact that I’d already posted this cycle and had posted last cycle?

@Straw, mind providing a reason for your vote against me?

[BrightnessRadiant]

Ah thanks @Jondesu for saving me from a double edit into my last post xD. *whispers "also you should vote" lol

I forgot to say that I know my vote caused a tie and didn't help a lot with the vote manipulation possibilities, but I'd rather lynch Road than Jon right now because there's not much to go on for a Jon lynch and I'm still not sure why he's got two votes. (as Jon just mentioned above, Straw hasn't even given a reason for his vote)

That being said: @Sony @Alvron @Doc12 @queensteph @Drake Marshall @Manukos @Roadwalker @Megasif voting anyone?

[Jondesu]

Actually, since there’s only 42 min left in the cycle, let me go ahead and explain. I’m a Nobleman, on Gondor’s side, though that part obviously I can’t prove. I took a chance in the Nobleman doc and revealed my identity, which no one else has done, and they probably won’t and maybe shouldn’t. That does lead me to believe that Sony, Mestiv, and Straw may be in communication, which since there are no PMs, that means the Nobleman doc, which I’m in, or the Elim doc, which I suspect is the case. I suppose they could be Village nobles trying to consolidate their power or even just suspecting that I might be an Elim, but since they did it so close together and yet for such different reasons, it’s worth revealing.

Oh, and for self-preservation, I guess I’ll vote Roadwalker. I’m not particularly suspicious of them, but I’d rather survive at the moment to see if I can learn more this way.

[Straw]

Hmm... Ok, very good. Jondesu I voted on you for the following reasons:

1. The scribe message said you might be evil.

2. I wanted to solidify the vote in order to prevent vote manipulation.

If you're actually a noble, we have a strong reason not to lynch you. I personally think that you now make a possible target for the Elim kill, so the Guard might want to try protecting you.

[Mestiv]

@Jondesu I picked you because you're at the top of the players list and you're not really active. Compared to Orlok or randuir you are quite inactive. I didn't do any statistics through the cycles, I don't have time for it, so I based my vote on my general view of user activity. I just recall no posts or very short posts from you.

I might have voted for Megasif, BR, Straw, Manukos, Drake or Steph just as well. They are all suspiciously quiet. (BR just started to post, but that doesn't count for me yet). You just have the bad luck of being on the beginning of the list (and now it seems you have been voted on by others, which only makes my vote more likely to not be wasted).

As I said earlier, I think we might have Elim team that's trying to lay low through the game... Exactly like real undercover agents would do

[DeTess]

Just now, Straw said:

If you're actually a noble, we have a strong reason not to lynch you. I personally think that you now make a possible target for the Elim kill, so the Guard might want to try protecting you.

Though it would not exactly be a bad idea for a guardsman to protect Jondesu, they should also very much make their own mind up. After all, if they follow the suggestions in the thread than it won't be particularly difficult for the elims to avoid hitting someone that is protected.

[Straw]

2 minutes ago, randuir said:

Though it would not exactly be a bad idea for a guardsman to protect Jondesu, they should also very much make their own mind up. After all, if they follow the suggestions in the thread than it won't be particularly difficult for the elims to avoid hitting someone that is protected.

Yeah, I was just saying that Jondesu should be added to the Guard's list of "people who I might protect if I want to protect them." 

Edited October 8, 2017 by Straw

[Sony]

@Jondesu You 'd me. I was going to ask Straw the same thing  

I didn't cast a vote for you. All I said was that I was a little suspicious of you since your only comment that cycle was to defend Manukos. What didn't convince me is that you didn't explain why we shouldn't vote for Manukos if he has a jester-type role. All you said was that we'll most likely die if we vote for him if he has a jester role.

 

 

[DeTess]

Had this in an edit to my previous post, but straw ninja'd me.

18 minutes ago, Straw said:

Hmm... Ok, very good. Jondesu I voted on you for the following reasons:

1. The scribe message said you might be evil.

2. I wanted to solidify the vote in order to prevent vote manipulation.

If you're actually a noble, we have a strong reason not to lynch you. I personally think that you now make a possible target for the Elim kill, so the Guard might want to try protecting you.

I actually find this post somewhat suspicious on a second read. Not enough to switch my vote at this point, but enough for me to want to point it out, just in case I'm not around anymore next cycle. Straw seems to back off quite quickly after Jondesu's revelation, without even seeming to question whether Jon might be lying to try and save himself (I don't think so, unless the elims could get control of the noble kill if they kill one more Noble, which they could get by forcing a Noble to speak up and out Jon).

He then continues to make a public request for the guard to protect Jondesu, which would be a way of ensuring that the elim kill goes through this cycle as long as they don't target Jon. This might also be the kind of suggestion an elim might make if he's just missed out on 2 successful night kills.

Btw, @Jondesu, would you be willing to tell us when you (claim to have) claimed in the Noble doc? I'm just curious if Queensteph's vote on you last cycle could have been related to the claim. Also, did DA post in the Noble doc before his death, and if he did, could someone have figured out who he was based on what he posted?

Edited October 8, 2017 by randuir

[Elenion]

And that's time! Write-up will be up in no time.

[Elenion]

Cycle 5: The Decimation and Smog

The Marshall of Minas Tirith made his rounds as always. Many of the guards had been reassigned into the higher circles of the city, where security could be more easily concentrated, but still a few loyal guards patrolled the lower circles in an attempt to prevent total anarchy. It wasn’t going well. Another mob had assembled, this one killing Silver Feather. There was nothing that the Marshall, or anyone else, could have done. By the time they had been informed of the disturbance, Silver Feather had already been hanged from the wall of the second circle. The Marshall had ordered the body cut down. Corpses are bad for general morale.

The Marshall’s next order of business was a strange one. Lord Khlenn--the new one, of course--had made a complaint of an offensive odor near the place where his brother had been murdered. Apparently someone had been hitting the pipe-weed pretty hard, but the scent of Old Toby hadn’t been smelled since. The Marshall had checked all of the usual places where intoxicating substances could be found. He’d arrested three people for possession of dangerous mushrooms, and a fourth for public intoxication: a halfling who couldn’t stop muttering “It comes in pints?” to himself. But still no pipe-weed.

The Marshall was on his way back to the guard barracks when he smelled smoke. It wasn’t the kind of smoke he was looking for, unfortunately. This was the more mundane kind. He stopped, sniffing until he could determine the direction from which the smoke was coming. He finally determined that it was coming from the third ring of the city, floating down to him where he stood in the second ring.

“Watch everyone who comes through this gate,” the Marshall said to the pair of men guarding the third gate, “I don’t want any unsavory characters getting through here.”

The men saluted and the Marshall didn’t give them another thought. He wound his way through back streets and alleys, until he finally found what he had smelled earlier. Smoke and flame poured from the upper level of a two-story stone house. Not another murder! He charged up the stairs and flung the door open, momentum carrying the Marshall into the smoke-filled room. Nothing appeared to be burning, in this room at least, but smoke made visibility poor and stung his eyes. In an adjoining room, he could see a figure lying on the ground. Who is it? Who are they trying to kill, and did they succeed? The Marshall ran forward, ignoring the smoke stinging his eyes and suppressing a cough as he grabbed the figure and flipped it over, coming face to face with the visage of a woman that he did not know. The sound of a door closing and locking came from the other room. And the Marshall of Minas Tirith suddenly knew who the real target of the fire was. DEATH

---

Roadwalker was lynched! They were an Outlaw loyal to Gondor!

Drake Marshall was killed! They were a Gondor Politician!

Cycle 5 has begun. You have 24 hours to send in actions and choose whom to lynch.

Vote Count

Roadwalker (3)

Jondesu (2)

Asterion (1)

Manukos (1)

 

Player List

1. Lemonelon - Unspecified Politician

2. King Cole - Unspecified Scribe

3. Randuir - Randuir

4. Jondesu - Findecano Nenharma

5. Steeldancer - Twigeye Scribe

6. Sony - Sony

7. Alvron - Zunn the Mad

8. Asterion - Hobo Baggins

9. Doc - Unspecified

10. Steph - Unspecified

11. Drake Marshall - The Marshall of Minas Tirith Gondor Politician

12. Manukos - Oakmus N

13. Darkness Ascendant - Mori lôm Nobleman

14. Sami - Jedal Snyders Steward of Gondor

15. Orlok Tsubodai - Annatar

16. Mestiv - Unspecified

17. Roadwalker - Silver Feather Outlaw

18. Straw - Straw

19. Brightness Radiant - Unspecified

20. Megasif - Megamir

[Alvron]

Oakmus N.  Black trees and thistles.  Loud but not loud.  A little piece of ginger glass!  Make him shorter, like the others.  What’s in your blood?