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Mid-Range Game 24: Baleful Eye


Seonid

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@Mark IVMy win con is contingent on the elimination of the Reckoners, and it's fairly obvious that the Reckoners are hiding among the claimed neutrals. A true neutral wouldn't be as likely to lie as a Reckoner, so when you made the dubious protection claim that drastically raised my suspicions of you being a Reckoner.

To all players: for the Reckoners to have attempted to WGG Crimsn, that means they have a kill, likely a faction kill. That makes Mark basically an outed elim.

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10 hours ago, Mark IV said:

Ah! Storm it! This is the third time my post got deleted! 

In short:

I'm a Reckoner. 

We tried to pull a WGG on crimsn. Didn't work very well. 

Hmm... not best idea to claim Reckoner, I think so.

I don't want to alienate nor Reckoners nor someone other who wants to kill Reckoners... so I'm not gonna vote :P

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8 hours ago, Elenion said:

@Mark IVMy win con is contingent on the elimination of the Reckoners, and it's fairly obvious that the Reckoners are hiding among the claimed neutrals. A true neutral wouldn't be as likely to lie as a Reckoner, so when you made the dubious protection claim that drastically raised my suspicions of you being a Reckoner.

To all players: for the Reckoners to have attempted to WGG Crimsn, that means they have a kill, likely a faction kill. That makes Mark basically an outed elim.

You forget how Crimsn was killed. She was drowned (?) into a Lava Lake. I don't know what you call that, but in my book, that is a faction kill. (Note that any extra kill items cannot be used in addition to the faction kill. However, they may be used to enhance the faction kill (eg. Faction kill that nullifies protection))

 Now, I realise that this is based on write up RP, but

  1. I'm willing to generally trust the write up RP to an extent because it also stated how Crimsn was shot (by a non-epic)
  2. Crimsn was likely killed not on suspicions that she was lying but because she said she had to kill an epic of 'unknown alignment' which is either neutral or bad news for the cabal. So, why not kill her?
  3. Unless you have evidence of some other abilities/factions (which I beseech you share) it is fairly obvious she was killed by winter. 
  4. How else are the Cabal Epics supposed to kill the Reckoners?

You, elenion, seem to be rather inclined to paint the Reckoners as the Elims (I mean, how do you forget that the epics can kill too?), when in fact, the reckoners have not yet killed any civilians, nor do we plan to. So, all you neutrals ( @Hemalurgic_Headshot) are safe. One exception though is that we killed BR, because she we had info that she was an SK type role and thus a threat to us. 

I can confirm the existence of at least two of an item called "Fake ID". They basically make you scan immune and guess what? They give the result "Loyal citizen" in green. We suspect many neutrals have them? 

@Ecthelion III I was hesitant about doing this, and also in a rush earlier, but I'd like to tell you we know the identity of the thief. Now, of course, you can go and hunt them down. But, what will revenge get you? Instead, we propose a deal. Let me live, and we'll arrange a deal to get you back your motion sensor. (I can assure you I'm not the thief :P)

We have directly helped the win conditions of many players. Helping Majestic was an accident, but we have intentionally helped Alvron (even though he died, he informed us that his win condition is fulfilled), Asterion and the unnamed Black Market dealer. We're willing to help others as well. 

I'd also like to state that we're quite open to cooperating with other players. However, my teammates will not be revealing themselves. So, I am the first and the last reckoner that will be revealing to the thread. If I die, I'm sorry, but we won't be able to help very directly.  

Also, Haven't you guys read the books? The reckoner are the good guys! I mean who wants a murderous tyrant as their leader? :P

To all players: I ask you to side with the reckoners. I do not know if we are intended to be the elims, but if this is so, we are one of the nicest elims there's been in a while. :P

Lastly, Arin, the thing is, I'm likely going to die of the lynch anyways. so, why not? :P

To those scared that the epics will target them if they act against the epics, note that the epics have very few players left. They can't afford to waste a kill on non-reckoners at this point.

(Also I just remembered, whoever gave me the upvote on my reveal, firstly, thank you. Secondly I would just like to say, I find it quite hilarious. :P)

 

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@Mark IV I agree with you that Winter likely liked Crimsn. But now that Winter is dead, that kill is off of the playing field. Your kill, which you haven't denied having, is still on the field.

I didn't know that there were fake IDs on the field or that they showed up as Loyal Citizen. But I'm an actual Loyal Citizen, so I can't tell you if many neutrals have fake IDs or not.

If I was a true neutral, at this point you would have me convinced not to vote on you. But my win condition is contingent on your death, so of course I'm going to push for your lynch.

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14 minutes ago, Elenion said:

@Mark IV I agree with you that Winter likely liked Crimsn. But now that Winter is dead, that kill is off of the playing field. Your kill, which you haven't denied having, is still on the field.

I didn't know that there were fake IDs on the field or that they showed up as Loyal Citizen. But I'm an actual Loyal Citizen, so I can't tell you if many neutrals have fake IDs or not.

If I was a true neutral, at this point you would have me convinced not to vote on you. But my win condition is contingent on your death, so of course I'm going to push for your lynch.

Yes. Winter really liked crimsn. :P

Every faction has a faction kill. Abilities can only augment that kill. 

 

Those two aren't mutually exclusive. You may still be a neutral (what's a true neutral?) and still want to kill me.

I suspect you may mean by true neutral a neutral whose win con does not force them to align with any particular faction. 

But, you're not reading me right. I'm saying you are not a true neutral at all. You're either an Cabalite or almost a Cabalite. (I suspect you may have read the "many neutrals have them" and said that. It would be better phrased as "many of the neutrals have them". I'm not trying to imply you're neutral. Simply that there are neutrals that have them)(however if this is not the case, then do ignore what I just said.)

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MR24: Cycle 7 - Revenge Fantasy

Writeup to be posted later...

 



Paranoid King has been killed! They were the Epic Hypnotist, and a member of the Epic Cabal, with powers of Mind Invasion and Suggestion!
Arinian has been killed! They were a Thief with a Surveillance Camera, Mobile, and a Sniper Rifle!
Mark IV was lynched! He was a Reckoners Sniper!
Ecthelion III has left the city due to meeting his win con! He was a Grieving Lover with a Surveillance Camera!
RippleGylf was attacked but survived!

Vote Count

Mark (3): Len, Ecth, Megasif

Len (1): Mark

Cycle 7 has begun. You have 48 or so hours to send in actions and to vote.

tur_1504368000.png

 


Player List:

  1. [REDACTED] - Paranoid King, person who specializes in collecting relics. Epic Hypnotist
  2. Starshatter and Birdrider - Winter Devotion, star crossed Australian runaways. Epic Lavalake
  3. Jon - Jondesu, amazing with computers but absolutely useless when it comes to talking to people Reckoners Demolitions Expert
  4. Mark - Mark IV Reckoners Sniper
  5. Biff - Elenion, a street salesman in the wrong place at the wrong time
  6. Sandra Kensington - Sami, weapons manufacturer with dark secret
  7. Rashers - Majestic, a bacon-summoning Epic Hydroplane
  8. Impulse - The Flash Black Market Arms Dealer
  9. Shockwave - King Cole, Epic with a terrible singing voice
  10. Matt - Shqueeves, orphan who never knew anything better
  11. Anonymous - Alvron, The Collective will ensure you never know anything about him Informant
  12. Silver Feather - Roadwalker Malcontent
  13. Tammy - Rebecca, the accidental daughter of Obliteration (:o)
  14. Amy Scott - Brightness Radiant, out of place punster Penitent Murderer
  15. Nameless Character I - Drake Marshall
  16. Annabelle - Lemonelon, an "engineer" Epic Stormwarden
  17. Sol - Eternum Epic Tachyon
  18. Lightwood - RippleGylf
  19. Outblack - Hemalurgic_Headshot
  20. Falchion - Elithanathile
  21. Cranium - Frozen Mint Lover
  22. Annoan - Megasif
  23. Nameless Character II - Ecthelion III Grieving Lover
  24. Pickle - asterion137, a small - time thief Detective
  25. Altea Meza - Crimsn_Wolf, a petite young drifter
  26. Fess - Arinian Thief
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Well I'm glad that we lynched Mark, because the Cabal lost one as well. Arin was the thief, and it looks like he stole a sniper rifle off of someone, likely Mark.

There are currently over 10 players alive, and at least 2 are likely with the Reckoners.

@RippleGylf Do you have Ecth's motion detector?

More analysis to come.

 

Edit:

I think I've cracked at least some of it!

First off, I think I've found out what I am: I'm the anti-Roadwalker. Road, near the beginning, claimed that he had a win con to eliminate players but that it didn't conflict with the village's (or at lease what he thought was the village's) win con. Looking at the game state now, Road's win con was likely to eliminate the Cabal, just as mine is to eliminate the Reckoners. Road thought the Cabal was a neutral faction not related to the elims, so he thought he was an executioner of sorts, while really he was meant to ally with the Reckoners against the Cabal. Also, Road made a joke action his first turn, so he must have had no real actions to do, just like me.

Now, to business. I'm 85% certain that Drake is a Reckoner.

Reason 1 (admittedly a weak PoE analysis, but it corroborates with my other analysis): The Reckoners obviously have a PM system set up. Mark basically admitted it when he mentioned that they have contact with a large number of the neutral roles. Now to have a PM system that size, with that kind of information shared, requires a very active player. Of the 10 living players right now, only 4 of the 10 have been around and posting enough to keep a PM decently active, those being me, Drake, King Cole, and Elith. I have a good read on Elith (he knew the neutral color), so that leaves us with either Cole or Drake as the PM guy.

Reason 2 (stronger but still has room for error): On page 26, Drake says this:

Quote

I mean.

I am interested by the fact that there's a role that can obscure alignment flips.

But I don't think her [Crimsn's] alignment is really a mystery. Do we have much cause to doubt her role claim, before she died?

Drake here uses some interesting logic: he assumes that Crimsn told the truth about her role/alignment. But just like in a normal game, both the good and the evil are going to claim to be good, so you'd think Drake would have been a little more skeptical about Crimsn's alignment. However, if you assume that Drake and Crimsn are evil together--and we know Crimsn is evil from Mark--it makes perfect sense: Drake wanted to get Crimsn trusted as a dead neutral so that analysts couldn't use her actions to determine who the Reckoners are. Drake's "assumptions" are the same principle as when Eternum somehow knew that a given kill was the Cabal kill.

Reason 3 (the lynchpin of my argument): This is where I really got suspicious of Drake. Page 28, about halfway down, public opinion turns against Arin and Mark. Mark, as we know now, was a Reckoner. Alv opens the voting by voting Mark. Everyone in this game knows about the potential for bandwagons, so it's very telling that Drake immediately puts down a vote on Arin, tying the lynch. Drake moved to protect Mark from the lynch, but he's discreet about it: he doesn't even back his vote with logic, he just says he wants to tie things up. This definitely seems like Drake wanted to keep Mark alive but do it in an unsuspicious way.

 

Unfortunately for us, there are only 10 people left alive, and inactivity has begun to be a thing. @Sami @King Cole @Shqueeves @Rebecca @RippleGylf @Hemalurgic_Headshot @Elithanathile Please look over my case against Drake, ask any questions to either of us that you are inclined to ask, and then place your votes. If Drake has an ally still living--20% rule implies 5 elims in a 25-person game, after all--that could make this vote difficult to win with the current level of activity.

Edited by Elenion
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8 minutes ago, Hemalurgic_Headshot said:

Len, you make a sound argument. Is killing the Reckoners the fastest way to end the game?

I don't really know. Makes sense, though.

20 minutes ago, King Cole said:

So if the 20% rule is in effect here, there would be 2 more reckoners besides Drake. I believe I know who one of them is, but I I think that revealing them would put me in danger.

You're forgetting Crimsn. Drake likely has one living accomplice.

Also, I don't think it would affect whether or not they'd kill you if you revealed one of them. They're likely to kill either me for analyzing, or whomever they think is Cabal. With the pressure they're likely under with the loss of Mark and then Drake, I doubt they'll have any kill actions to spare. If you think you know who the last Reckoner is, then announce it, so the Cabal can kill them tonight to end the game.

1 hour ago, RippleGylf said:

I don't have any items whatsoever.

Elenion, you make a good argument against Drake. I want to hear his defense before voting, but I'm leaning towards him being a Reckoner.

Great to hear.

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Fascinating.

I mean, as of two cycles ago I've pretty much won already, so go ahead and lynch me.

I would however like to gently criticize the approach of targeting a player merely because they have a reputation for being active (see your point 1). I see where you are coming from, and I know it's not your main point, but I'm not certain I can get behind that kind of thing.

It was perceptive of you to realize that I was protecting Mark though. Although, if he were actually on my team I'd probably have bussed him, to be honest. I adore bussing tactics.

 

Anyways, even though it was fun at first, the widespread confusion in this game is getting kind of old.

I will freely own that I was in contact with Mark for some time. I was also working very closely with Alvron.

On one occasion I helped the reckoners arrange for the death of an epic.

I tried to contact the epic cabal and offer my services to them, but all of my attempts to do so were unsuccessful. Which is funny, because Paranoid King supposedely was able to PM Alvron, so I don't understand why he couldn't PM me. Kind of strange.

I also currently possess a Fake ID, which is why I don't believe the Loyal Citizen claim for an instant.

I have interacted with both black market dealers and have acquired certain useful tools from this exchange. Very helpful people, black market dealers. You guys should try and get in touch with the remaining one.

So far as I know, the malcontents are still a major faction, and there is one player who I am almost certain is a malcontent, whose identity I will not reveal until I learn more about their win condition.

Also I know of one Survivalist role, who I will also not be revealing unless I have their permission.

 

So yeah. I gots work to do now, so bye. Hope that keeps discussion moving though. Cya around.

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3 hours ago, Hemalurgic_Headshot said:

Len, you make a sound argument. Is killing the Reckoners the fastest way to end the game?

To my knowledge, Paranoid King was the last member of the Epic Cabal. The only possible exception is if Elenion is also an Epic Cabal member (seeing as he sympathizes with them and all), but in my estimation this is not the most probable explanation.

If Alvron / Mark were telling the truth about the Reckoner win condition, the game should have already ended if it was only Cabal versus Reckoners. Presumably, this means that there is a Serial Killer, or similar role, that both Reckoners and Cabal have to remove.

So. I'm pretty sure there's only one reckoner left and zero cabal members left. If Elenion is in fact a cabal member, that would imply the existence of one other reckoner in terms of balance. However I only know the identity of a single reckoner, so that would be very confusing to me.

So the endgame right now probably depends on removing a Serial Killer.

 

But really, why would you want to end the game as soon as you can? That sounds suspiciously boring. Don't be boring.

Oh also, HH, a little bird told me what role you have. But don't worry, I won't tell.

Actually though, folks, his role is pretty benign. Attacking him would be mean.

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Just now, Elenion said:

@Drake Marshall I know you're either deceived or lying, because at the end of last cycle I was affected by an Epic's action. Furthermore, I have intel that suggests there may even be a second Epic alive.

Additionally, you seem to be quite in the know about the game state. How did you get PMs with so many people?

I had a mobile and a doc with Alvron.

Plus I've been keeping a table of people's identities and notes on them.

I don't believe dying would have stopped Paranoid King from targetting you in some way. But, what is this other unnamed intel you bring up?

If you are reluctant to go into detail... Do you want to trade information perhaps? I'm game.

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30 minutes ago, Drake Marshall said:

I had a mobile and a doc with Alvron.

Plus I've been keeping a table of people's identities and notes on them.

I don't believe dying would have stopped Paranoid King from targetting you in some way. But, what is this other unnamed intel you bring up?

If you are reluctant to go into detail... Do you want to trade information perhaps? I'm game.

Hmmm... I'm hesitant to trust you--I just got done explaining why I think you're a Reckoner after all--but at the same time we both could probably use the intel that the other has. Unfortunately, I can't create a PM with you until next cycle, and I really don't want to put my info out there where the whole thread can see it. How much information do you suggest we trade?

Also, a question to pose to you, have you accounted for the Gifter Epic who gave Elith the Epic powers C1? Because if not, that proves there's at least one Epic still on the loose, without me saying anything not publicly known.

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7 minutes ago, Elenion said:

Hmmm... I'm hesitant to trust you--I just got done explaining why I think you're a Reckoner after all--but at the same time we both could probably use the intel that the other has. Unfortunately, I can't create a PM with you until next cycle, and I really don't want to put my info out there where the whole thread can see it. How much information do you suggest we trade?

Also, a question to pose to you, have you accounted for the Gifter Epic who gave Elith the Epic powers C1? Because if not, that proves there's at least one Epic still on the loose, without me saying anything not publicly known.

I'd be okay with trading information in-thread, honestly.

What potentially would you be looking to conceal?

If you are indeed a "Loyal Citizen" you would be most concerned about tipping your hand to the Reckoners.

But you already think I'm a Reckoner, so why would a PM be any better than the thread? :P

 

You raise a good point about the gifter epic though. That may account for why Gylf is alive.

Would you confirm that you were gifted last cycle then? That would have some affects on my assessment of the current game.

Also, if you were gifted, that would explain why you aren't applying the same logic to Gylf as you did to Mark. Because you personally protected Gylf.

Edited by Drake Marshall
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9 minutes ago, Drake Marshall said:

You raise a good point about the gifter epic though. That may account for why Gylf is alive.

Would you confirm that you were gifted last cycle then? That would have some affects on my assessment of the current game.

I was not gifted last cycle. I was affected by a different action that also likely came from a Epic, hence my suspicions of a second living Epic.

You make a good point about claiming, and I'll admit that my Reckoner read on you is slipping. Shall we share info?

Edit: I'm especially interested in hearing about the Malcontents.

Edited by Elenion
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By all means. What do you wish to know?

I for one am rather interested that my prediction about the cabal/reckoners distribution seemed to be wrong.

I am also growing interested in the malcontents. I know something of who they might be, but I have no idea what they are trying to achieve in this game.

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Just now, Drake Marshall said:

By all means. What do you wish to know?

I for one am rather interested that my prediction about the cabal/reckoners distribution seemed to be wrong.

I am also growing interested in the malcontents. I know something of who they might be, but I have no idea what they are trying to achieve in this game.

I don't know who they are other than if there are more of them it's likely Cole and maybe Ripple, but I know a bit about their win con.

Who do you think the surviving Malcontents are, and why do you think that?

Edited by Elenion
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3 minutes ago, Elenion said:

I don't know who they are other than if there are more of them it's likely Cole and maybe Ripple, but I know a bit about their win con.

Who do you think the surviving Malcontents are, and why do you think that?

I am pretty sure that Cole is a Malcontent.

My reasoning is not entirely my own in this.

Alvron was certain that Cole was either a Malcontent or the thief.

It doesn't seem likely that there's a second thief, seeing as one thief is already dead, and plus there have been two black market dealers.

Ergo, assuming that Alvron knew what he was talking about when he said he was certain, Cole is a Malcontent.

@King Cole, I apologize for outing you in this way. Would you, however, be willing to join our discussion? I feel a little in the dark about your motives.

Edited by Drake Marshall
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Just now, Drake Marshall said:

I am pretty sure that Cole is a Malcontent.

My reasoning is not entirely my own in this.

Alvron was certain that Cole was either a Malcontent or the thief.

It doesn't seem likely that there's a second thief, seeing as one thief is already dead, and plus there have been two black market dealers.

Ergo, assuming that Alvron knew what he was talking about when he said he was certain, Cole is a Malcontent.

@King Cole, I apologize for outing you in this way. Would you, however, be willing to join our discussion? I feel a little in the dark about your motives.

Cole himself said, on page 16, that he was in a neutral faction group. That doesn't leave many options.

I have info that the Malcontent win condition requires the death of at least one player. I was running on the assumption that it was the Cabal, and he/they were opposite to my win con in that regard.

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