Quick Fix Game 25: A Sundered Sky

[Arinian]

2 hours ago, Eternum said:

Arinian, because they're tunneling Sart a lot and acting suspicious, as pointed out by Sart himself. My gut also tells me they're elim, and I generally trust my instincts.

I'm tunneling? You can advice better target for lynch with solider reasons? Also I don't know what you finding suspicious. Only thing that I can think of that I'm looking suspicious for you that I hardly advocated for Stick's lynch and was wrong about it (that's so, I was wrong about Stick and surely I would be wrong in more things then that, but as I know it's usual for villagers to be wrong), or maybe cause I'm not very careful with my votes and not always bringing good solid reasons for them but not only I doing that (you of course can blame me that it's not optimal play and blah blah blah). 

Okay, looks like all discussion will start after I will go sleep... as on previous cycle. So be wise with your choices. Ohh... almost forgot, I'm not elim guys (just for "I told you so" ).

Edited August 6, 2017 by Arinian

[Sparkrunner]

I am back! Internet! Hooray! My cat! My turtle!

Can someone give me a rundown of what has happened recently? Also @TheMightyLopen why group me in with the elims when I explained my absence? (As a side note, I should be more active from now on.)

[Elenion]

@Orlok Tsubodai  I explained my reasons for voting him (well, attempting to) last cycle: he accused Arinian for going after Stick too strongly, but at the time Stick's alignment was unknown, so unless Sart was elim he couldn't have known that Arin was on the wrong trail.

Also, right now I'm getting village tonereads from Rae, Winter, Eternum, DA, and Arinian. That's right, Arinian. He sounds different than his last game as village and very much like his village self.

Like Lopen I'm feeling a bad gut reaction to Jon's latest post: it seems indecisive, and made right at a time where there is no prevailing suspicions that everyone supports, so it feels like it's trying to sound helpful without stepping on anyone's fingers.

 

Here's a full reads list: (100 is village, 0 is elim)

Elith: taken lots of flak for a few posts, but I haven't played enough with him to tell if that's AI. 48/100

Mage: Always difficult to read for me, and nothing he's said has really triggered a read. 50/50

Eternum: Village toneread. 55/100

Jebus: Few posts, no read. 50/100

Orlok: If Winter, Rae, Lopen and I are all village like my reads say, the elims need a tactician, and Orlok fits the bill. No solid evidence yet, but paranoia is getting real. I wouldn't lynch him but I'll be watching. 49/100

Winter: Village toneread. 60/100

Roadwalker: Neutral read. 50/100

Jon: Has made 2 posts that have read evil on my radar. 40/100

Sami: I'm not reading evil on that one post like Lopen is, so she's still at 50/100

STINK: Chance is against him being evil since he was just barely evil in LG36. Call me for the gambler's fallacy, but GMs are not completely random with balance. 53/100

Rae: Village toneread. 55/100

Lopen: Village toneread, plus extremely low chance of WGG. 65/100 and somebody pls protect him.

Darkness: I know from Wolfia he can be hard to read, but I'm with Lopen in that he's seeming village. 55/100

Bard: I can't remember any of his posts... 50/100

Ecth: We've beaten the dead horse already. His comment about nearly dying read as village, but not too village, so 53/100

Yitzi: Really, the same analysis as I did to STINK. 51/100

Sart: Where my vote is. He's not lurking as is his elim tell, but he knows it's his tell so it's an IKYK. 43/100 for the Arin accusation.

Arinian: Village toneread. 55/100

Sub-50 reads: Elith, Jon, Sart, Orlok (but just barely for him).

In typing this out I've realized that I now distrust Jon more than Sart, because Sart could have been making a gut read on Stick and just have read her right. So I'll be switching my vote from Sart to Jon hoping that this swap doesn't end up biting me in the backside later.

[Jondesu]

2 hours ago, TheMightyLopen said:

Edit: bad read on Jon's last post.

 

30 minutes ago, Elenion said:

@Orlok TsubodaiJon: Has made 2 posts that have read evil on my radar. 40/100

In typing this out I've realized that I now distrust Jon more than Sart, because Sart could have been making a gut read on Stick and just have read her right. So I'll be switching my vote from Sart to Jon hoping that this swap doesn't end up biting me in the backside later.

Yeah… kinda knew that might happen.  I had good reasons, though. Mostly that I'd just woken up from a too-long nap on a day where I'd already been tired as Braize, and didn't have anything clear enough in my head to want to commit to a vote on anyone (and like I said, no real firm suspicions).  I even took a look down the player list to see if anyone has been just inactive or flying under the radar, and while there's some folks not as active as others, everyone's been posting relatively consistently.

Honestly, at this point, I'm dropping a vote back on you, Len.  Nothing personal, but that last post of yours came across as a target-seeking opportunity for an Elim, similar to things I've done.  I know you do that as a villager usually too, but the way it's all organized feels a little off to me.  I promise it's not a retaliation vote. 

Edited August 7, 2017 by Jondesu

[Sart]

Vote Count:

Yitzi (1): Sart
Sart (1): Arinian, Elenion[1]
Arinian (2): Eternum, Lopen
Jondesu (1): Elenion[2]
Elenion (1): Jondesu

I'm tempted to put my vote on Arinian instead, but I've got a stronger read on Yitzi, so I'm going to keep my vote there.

[Jondesu]

41 minutes ago, Sart said:

Vote Count:

Yitzi (1): Sart
Sart (1): Arinian, Elenion[1]
Arinian (2): Eternum, Lopen
Jondesu (1): Elenion[2]
Elenion (1): Jondesu

I'm tempted to put my vote on Arinian instead, but I've got a stronger read on Yitzi, so I'm going to keep my vote there.

I will note that Yitzi and I traded roleclaims via PM and I’m still alive, which speaks for him just a little, but it doesn’t mean a lot I know. He initiated it and I deferred a cycle before agreeing (we exchanged roles C2).

[Orlok Tsubodai]

In an airport about to board with El, and have been at her harp recital today, hence the reduced activity.

[TheMightyLopen]

2 hours ago, Roadwalker said:

I am back! Internet! Hooray! My cat! My turtle!

Can someone give me a rundown of what has happened recently? Also @TheMightyLopen why group me in with the elims when I explained my absence? (As a side note, I should be more active from now on.)

Sorry about that. I mostly just mentioned you because I couldn't remember anything significant about you, so I wanted to review everything you'd said. I'm not necessarily suspicious of you, just don't have anything that tells me to trust you.

1 hour ago, Sart said:

Vote Count:

Yitzi (1): Sart
Sart (1): Arinian, Elenion[1]
Arinian (2): Eternum, Lopen
Jondesu (1): Elenion[2]
Elenion (1): Jondesu

I'm tempted to put my vote on Arinian instead, but I've got a stronger read on Yitzi, so I'm going to keep my vote there.

So I'm basically in control of the lynch. Scary. >>

19 minutes ago, Jondesu said:

I will note that Yitzi and I traded roleclaims via PM and I’m still alive, which speaks for him just a little, but it doesn’t mean a lot I know. He initiated it and I deferred a cycle before agreeing (we exchanged roles C2).

Interesting. I'm tempted to switch to Yitzi, tbh. Or Len. Urgggghhhh. If my vote is moved, I think everyone should assume it was an eliminator.

I'm getting better reads from Arinian's last couple posts(this is happening a lot lately). Same with Jon. I kinda feel like an eliminator would have gone out of his way to place his vote somewhere earlier, plus mentioning his role claiming with Yitzi feels villagery somehow.

Y'know what, I'm going with Len. Purely gut on this one. If I'm wrong, sorry Len. And if I die, sorry everyone else. I know this hasn't been my best game. :/ Try to get the quieter players more involved, and try to get the voting going earlier. Arinian.

Ninja'd...okay good, not a vote.

[Elbereth]

Cycle is closed! 

[Elbereth]

QF25: Hour 5 - Who knows?
10 a.m.

Malnar always loved plants. The image of a fragile blue structure which the Shin man selling it had called a flower is imprinted on his mind forever. Since that day in Kholinar, Malnar started his own collection of plants - more normal, everyday ones at first, and then later special expeditions to find new and different ones. 

That’s how he met Dalan. They were both in the army, and Dalan had heard the same tale about a particularly unusual herb that attracted spren. Neither of them ever managed to find the plant, but they’d found each other instead.

And now Malnar is here, as Dalan is probably running messages around camp - maybe even messages about Kenara’s death - unknowing of Malnar’s peril.

To be fair, Malnar is unknowing, too. He never sees the blade at the back of his neck, as he focuses on grasping a particularly oddly-shaped specimen of grass. He chuckles to himself. Dalnar will love this one.

The blade lands, and the grass just escapes Malnar’s grasp as he falls. 

He manages to choke out one last word before he dies. 

“Dalan…”

---

Meanwhile, not yet having noticed Malnar’s absence, the circle reforms. 

“Let’s do this logically this time, shall we?” says Tzlim. “How about every person go around and say who’s been most suspicious to you, or anything you think you’ve seen?”

“That sounds boring,” Damond comments. 

“How about you, Tzlim?” says Albert Vospar. “I’m pretty suspicious of you.”

“Me too!” chirps Revali, though he doesn't seem quite sure what he's agreeing to. The shock of nearly having died is still quite strong, after all.

“But what about Sartal?” counters Alrin. “After all, the only other ardent we’ve had has died. Maybe Spiff got targeted on purpose?”

“Yeah!” says Eternum, similarly unsure of what exactly he's agreeing with.

“But Tzlim!” says Albert.

“Sartal!” cries Alrin.

“Tzlim!” “Sartal!” Tzlim!” “Sartal!” 

This shouting match continues for so ridiculously long that everyone gets bored and starts picking a side and chanting along with it. 

Unfortunately, they don't choose evenly, and Tzlim’s detractors are louder.

Wide-eyed, he runs. “I was just trying to be logical!” he cries, and grabs at the sphere still stored in his belt pouch. If he can only do what had led him here in the first place…

He breathes, and something happens. A shower of beads that appears and just as quickly disappears when he loses focus. Sometime, I should really learn what that actually is…

He doesn't care for the moment, though. He’s dropped somewhere outside the arena - away from the mob chasing him. He decides to head back, since he’d probably be labeled a murderer and chased down if he doesn't, but he rather hopes that the mob has a new target before he manages to make it back. 

It’s only 10 o’clock, too. It’s going to be a long day…

---

Arraenae has died! She was a Dustbringer!
Jondesu was lynched, but didn’t die! 

Cycle 5 has begun! It will end in 25 hours, to get back on to the normal time. 

Vote Count
>Jondesu (2): Elenion, Lopen 
>Sart (2): Arinian, Eternum
>Elenion (1): Jondesu 
>Yitzi (1): Sart 

Player List
1. Elithanathile - Sebas
2. Drake - Aaliyah New Recruit
3. Mage - Damond
4. Eternum - Albion Kerenas
5. Jebus - Teralarin
6. Flash - Johnny Quick New Recruit
7. Elenion - Albert Vospar
8. Orlok - Highprince Locke Tekiel 
9. Megasif - Zirconidas New Recruit
10. Winter Devotion - John
11. Roadwalker - Silver
12. Jondesu - Tzlim
13. Paranoid King - Spiff Dustbringer
14. Stick - Dan New Recruit
15. Sami - Aleta Nebrask
16. Stink - Lazar
17. Arraenae - Malnar Dustbringer
18. Lopen - Revali
19. Darkness - Belegaer
20. Bard - Melinon
21. Ecthelion - Ceol and Vis
22. Yitzi - Brightlord Erethin
23. Sart - Ardent Sartal
24. Arinian - Alrin

Edited August 8, 2017 by Orlok Tsubodai

[Alvron]

Well folks, it seems that something has gone very very wrong and we have somehow made the main thread invisible even to the Mods.   Oops.  Good news is that you can still get into the thread by following this link in case you want to review past cycles.  Please bear with us while we try and work out just what the chull happened.  

Edit: All fixed now.   Please return to your scheming.

Edited August 7, 2017 by Alvron

[Elithanathile]

Just a quick note to say that I have no clue how I survived and I have not seen the last thread at all.

Also I'll be leaving at 7:00 AM tomorrow to go on a camping experience (to put it lightly) and won't have any electronic devices until Friday afternoon. So sorry, but I'll be inactive until then. So I guess feel free to lynch me if you suspect me or don't have a suspect, since I won't be of much use. I would have mentioned this before, but I honestly expected to be dead by now. So good luck and happy hunting!

[Ecthelion III]

QFs move way too fast for me. Sorry guys.

Due to the lack of RP, Ceol is withdrawing in place of a mysterious cloaked dude who may or may not even have a body under the cloak.

[Yitzi2]

When it says "Jondesu was attacked, but didn’t die!", shouldn't that be " Jondesu was lynched, but didn’t die!"?

Oh, and since Jon mentioned our roleclaim trade: My main reason for initiating it was that D1 he suggested that Ecth posted "squire" because that's what it said in his role PM, so if he'd claimed new recruit it'd be very suspicious (since then if he was village he should've known).

I find Eternum's defense of Sart last cycle to be quite suspicious, and quite in line for a newbie elim trying to defend another elim.  I probably should've voted for Sart last cycle, but I didn't get to it; let's give it another try.  Sart.

[Eternum]

Wait. What? I don't understand. Was Jon lynched, or was Rae?

Also, my vote was changed from Arinian to Sart. For what reason, I do not know, but that just makes me even more suspicious of them. Or they might be getting framed.

This feels like a very very overt move. Probably by the village, if I'm being honest.

As for Rae, I suspected they were village before, but losing another Dustbringer is rough.

We have to get an elim this cycle. Things aren't going well..

Analysis of Jon TBA.

Edited August 7, 2017 by Eternum

[Elbereth]

1 minute ago, Yitzi2 said:

When it says "Jondesu was attacked, but didn’t die!", shouldn't that be " Jondesu was lynched, but didn’t die!"?

Yes - apologies, rushed and in an airport. Edited now. 

[Yitzi2]

Now that I think of it...while Eternum defending Sart does seem very suspicious as far as Sart is concerned, it's even more suspicious as far as Eternum is concerned.  Sart Eternum.

[Sart]

44 minutes ago, Elbereth said:

Vote Count

 

>Jondesu (2): Elenion, Lopen 
>Sart (2): Arinian, Eternum
>Elenion (1): Jondesu 
>Yitzi (1): Sart

Someone's trying to have me killed. It appears that Arinian is a Stoneward. Since he was in danger of being lynched, he moved one of the votes on him to me. However, due to Lopen's last minute vote change, Jondesu was tied with me, and I got lucky. Does that make Arinian a Skybreaker? I don't think so. That would be a very powerful role for the Eliminators, as it nets them 2 extra votes (1 off the player in second place, 1 on the player the elims want to lynch) It depends on the number of powers in the village. If there's a large abundance of power, then the Elims might also have powers. However, we have 5 New Recruits already dead, and there is a weaker vote manipulation in the form of Dustbringing. It seems more likely that Arinian is a villager for the time being. Unfortunately, that means I have to deal with a Village Vote-Manipulator who is tunneling on me. Great... I don't have any powers, so me dying wouldn't be the worst thing in the world, but I'm at least trying to be active. I'd prefer not to die if possible.

And now I'm worried that Yitzi is the Truthless because of the switch to Eternum. I'm worried he's trying to drum up anger against himself in order to go up in a blaze of glory. Then again, he did apparently do a role swap, so that might be out of the picture. Erg... now I'm questioning my own reads. I'll vote tomorrow.

[Elenion]

Looks like Lopen tried to lynch me with Jon's help, but then ended up lynching Jon with me. Heh, irony.D
 

So if I'm reading the vote manip right, Lopen's vote got moved from me to Jon, and Eternum's vote got moved from Arin to Sart. Of the two moves, I'd bet that one was elim and one was village, because we haven't killed an elim vote manip yet but it's unlikely the elims have two.

Edit: Sart brings up a good point in that even one vote move would be a very powerful role for the elims. If this is true, both moves last cycle are likely village.

Edited August 7, 2017 by Elenion

[Eternum]

Yitzi, it wasn't so much defending Sart as it was accusing Arinian. I think Sart is village, yes, but I could be wrong. You, though, I'm getting a bad gut read on now. You first voted on Sart, who at this point is an easy way out, as a lot of us are suspicious of him. Now you change the vote to me, again, an easily lynchable target for the fact that I am one of the few of whom people have been suspicious of to one degree or another the entire game.

Thing is, you have no way to lynch me without doing some mental gymnastics.

Sure, my posts haven't been squeaky clean, but whose are? We've lynched 3 villagers at this point.

I also don't see where the idea that I was defending Sart came from. I did not defend them. I voted for Arinian because they were tunneling Sart more than anything, even if I am suspicious of them for more than just that, but I went with my gut and left the vote.

If you do manage to lynch me, great job. All I'll have left is, in Ecth's words, a postmortem told-you-so.

[Elenion]

10 minutes ago, Eternum said:

If you do manage to lynch me, great job. All I'll have left is, in Ecth's words, a postmortem told-you-so.

Can you link to where Ecth said that? I can't find it, and I'm testing a theory of mine.

[Sami]

Dang it, missed the end and didn't vote. Although I'm a bit confused here. What were the vote tallies before the manip?

[Elbereth]

Writeup has been edited in. 

 

Due to further consideration of the fact that I'll be in a different timezone all week and don't want to be up at midnight every night, I'm changing the time of rollover to two hours earlier. The cycle will now end in:

Apologies for any inconvenience. 

[Eternum]

2 hours ago, Elenion said:

Can you link to where Ecth said that? I can't find it, and I'm testing a theory of mine.

Here's the page, Len. I'm not exactly sure why you want it though.

[TheMightyLopen]

I think Orlok is an eliminator. For 3 reasons.

1- He's still alive. Why attack Drake, Megasif, and Rae? They're not bad players, but Orlok has caught entire elims teams before, which you'd assume would make him a high priority target. This isn't a strong point, but I do feel it might have some merit.

2 - For as much as he's posted, and as many people have commented about him, I don't recall much, if any, strong reads on him. At this point in the game, I think the elims would either try to buddy up to him if he were village, or just kill him. But so far players just keep saying they're "wary" of him, or "kind of" trust him. I think this is because he's evil and his teammates don't want to implicate themselves or him by saying they think he's village, but they don't want to draw attention to him by putting him in their actual suspicions. This, I think, is the strongest point against him.

3 - My final point is just that I personally feel like his posts are just slightly off. I can't really put my finger on anything specific, but I've had this feeling most of the game. Probably the weakest point, tbh, since it's solely based on my ability to read Orlok, and I've had troubles in the past with that.

Anyways, combined, these things make me think that there's a fairly high chance Orlok is evil.