Quick Fix Game 25: A Sundered Sky

[TheMightyLopen]

58 minutes ago, Sart said:

I'm getting suspicious of Arinian. He seemed way too eager to lynch Stick, and he has been throwing a lot of suspicion around.

I don't understand this post. He's voted Stick twice, sure, but he hasn't really been all that aggressive about it. And what makes you think Stick is village? I can't help but feel like you know Stick will flip village and you're trying to make Arinian look bad. That, and what does "he has been throwing a lot of suspicion around" mean exactly? It's a villager's mission to accuse players to ferret out the eliminators, so I don't see how that's a bad thing?

55 minutes ago, _Stick_ said:

Sorry for double-posting,but I don't want to edit all this in on mobile.

Village:

Jebus, megasif, winter, DA, Stink, Ecth (maaaybe)

Null/Need more info:

Mage, Len, Orlok (really confused about this read. Might put him under village, I think?), Roadwalker, Jondesu, Sami, Bard, yitzi, Sart

Elim:

Elith, Eternum, PK, Rae, Arinian, Lopen(skeptical about this one)

The null section is lengthier than I would've liked, but these are the reads on all players right now, couldn't bother giving reasons for all of these, sorry >> Just wanted to them out here in case I get lynched. Oh, and they aren't on order or anything. I followed the order from the player list.

Oh it's not a double post then nvm

Thanks for this. I'm hoping you're not village, but regardless of alignment, I always like to see these.

[Paranoid King]

1 hour ago, Elithanathile said:

Between Stick, Mage and PK, I'd go with PK. I'm getting a village read from Stick, am neutral on Mage, and somewhat suspicious of PK.

Really? You PM'd me last cycle, saying we should be buddies. I gave you what I thought was a helpful tip. Orlok's post seemed rephrased just slightly, so I thought he'd reworded something. I said he might be a vote manip. You, meanwhile, said you had nothing to give.

This cycle you attacked Orlok because you thought he was a vote manip and vote manips are evil. Oddly enough, that didn't work. That done, you turned around and pinned the blame on me. Hope you're satisfied with that.

5 hours ago, TheMightyLopen said:

I'll likely vote PK or Sami if no one joins me on Mage or Stick. [...] Leaning PK I think. The fact that he's placed 2 early votes(1 a poke vote that he kept all Cycle) and hasn't really participated in voting after that makes me wonder about him.

I've been working a lot. You might not have noticed, but I joined this game to have fun with RP more than to strategize.

I would tell you to lynch someone who'd give you more info from early votes, but then you'd lynch me in a later cycle, and like I said, I'm less worried about the strategy this game. Better to keep someone who plays for strategy than me.

Anyways, I think Stick and Ecth are innocent. I think Sami is guilty. I think I'm really terrible at reading Flash. There's some info for you. Analyze it as you will.

[Elithanathile]

I am satisfied, by the way.

 

:thumbsup:

 

Also who the heck is Sami? This is probably going to sound really callous, but I have seriously no clue who that is.

Yes, I PMed PK, because it was a start to PMing somebody. It doesn't mean I thought he was village or trustworthy. And if I feel he is feeding me false info intentionally and may or may not be evil, I will out him. Fun fact.

[Elbereth]

Cycle is over! New cycle will be up in five minutes or so. 

[Elbereth]

QF25: Hour 3 - Sticking
8 a.m.

The bodies have all finally been removed, but the scent of death hangs in the air. 

Everyone stands in a circle, looking at each other, afraid to turn their back. And slowly, slowly, it happens again. Naihar and Lorna, still watching, both nod. They’ve seen this before. 

Suspicion. It was someone in this room. 

Not me. Wasn’t me. But it had to have been someone. Was it you? Or you? You don’t seem to be acting quite right… you look nervous… well of course I’m nervous four people just died. 

What about you? Or you? Doesn’t matter who. Just anyone. Anyone but me.

If there were someone who could see emotion, the room would be swirling shades of grey paranoia, oily suspicion, and black fear, gathering, gathering, into a great cloud of near-madness. Tension builds. Questions become sharper, less forgiving. What were you doing near Aaliyah in the pile? I thought you were just ahead of me when we were getting spheres from Brightness Kenara? How, exactly, did you get invited here? Why do you look so treelike? How do we know you’re loyal to Alethkar?

And there it is. The first “we”. That turns the tide. Everyone thinks that they’re trusted, that they’re in the right and whoever they suspect is wrong. The original perfect circle is a cluster, a mob, a storm of shouts and accusations and- 

They decide. We decide. And Dan falls, crushed by something that is more than suspicion, now. Crushed by the fear of death. He chokes out four last words as he dies. “I am a stick…”

And slowly, everything grows quiet again. The shouting stops. Dan is dead. And so is Zirconidas, killed in the chaos, eyes black. 

The bodies are taken away. The circle reforms. This time, the storm of suspicion and fear and paranoia is tinged with the orange hint of shame. 

---

Megasif has died! He was a New Recruit studying Edgedancing!
Stick was lynched! She was a New Recruit! 

Cycle 3 has begun! It will end in 24 hours. 

 

Vote Count
>Stick (4): Arinian, Rae, Lopen, Stick 
>Rae (1): Winter
>PK (1): Jondesu 
>Stink (1): Elithanathile 
>Arinian (1): Sart 
>Mage (1): Megasif 
>Winter (1): Jebus 
>Sami (1): PK

Player List
1. Elithanathile - Sebas
2. Drake - Aaliyah New Recruit
3. Mage - Damond
4. Eternum - Albion Kerenas
5. Jebus - Teralarin
6. Flash - Johnny Quick New Recruit
7. Elenion - Albert Vospar
8. Orlok - Highprince Locke Tekiel 
9. Megasif - Zirconidas New Recruit
10. Winter Devotion - John
11. Roadwalker - Silver
12. Jondesu - Tzlim
13. Paranoid King - Spiff
14. Stick - Dan New Recruit
15. Sami - Aleta Nebrask
16. Stink - Lazar
17. Arraenae - Malnar
18. Lopen - Revali
19. Darkness - Belegaer
20. Bard - Melinon
21. Ecthelion - Ceol and Vis
22. Yitzi - Brightlord Erethin
23. Sart - Ardent Sartal
24. Arinian - Alrin

Edited August 5, 2017 by Elbereth

[Sami]

Drat, missed most of the last cycle. Sorry I didn't have time to vote.

@Elithanathile who the heck is Sami? Hmmmmmm not sure about that one. Why don't you check the player list and see? 

[Darkness Ascendant]

*sigh

Missed last cycle by 30 minutes....bleh. Wish I could have jumped in and defended Stick, we had PMed each other a bit... 

I'm going to go through the last cycle very closely when I get home.

In other news, won today's game! We're going to the grand finals!!!

[Ecthelion III]

Now that Stick is village, I'd say that Sart's argument against Arinian holds quite a bit more water.

I'm not going to vote yet, as I'd like to go through the thread and build my own suspicions first.

[Arrae]

Well.

Whoops.

@Darkness Ascendant, what did you talk about with Stick?

EDIT: I may be less active over the weekend, since I'll have less reliable internet/device access.

Edited August 5, 2017 by Arraenae

[Darkness Ascendant]

4 hours ago, Arraenae said:

@Darkness Ascendant, what did you talk about with Stick?

Uh the usual, which child deserved to be euthanised more than the other, why the poor are always whining etc etc

We just role claimed to each other, and the way she came to me seemed very villagery and I had reason to believe her claim.

[Magestar]

Mmk, I'm going to vote on Winter.  This vote might change as the day goes on, but I wanted to get a vote out there pretty early this cycle;  Basically as soon as I woke up.  

To start with, the whole thing about being a Truthless, (Or a secret survival role?  Wut?) seemed off to me.  It just didn't seem super helpful, and whether or not it ended up working, it just seemed odd.

This post seems to attempt to explain the whole thing, after it is revealed to Winter that their IKYK is flawed because there isn't a scanner role;

Quote

Winter- 

Okay if I'm going to be really honest-- and this is gonna sound incredibly stupid because it is-- I've always had a day dream of being another faction and somehow figuring out how to team up with the eliminators or convincing them I was going to, but revealing that I was lying and revealing them to the village.

That's what I was trying to do but I was acting like an idiot because genius me forgot to check the rules. And also assumed that the eliminators were idiots too.  

Which, Ok, I guess I could see that.  But this post;

Quote

Winter- 

Anyway, ideally I'd say we risk lynching the truthless early or getting them killed early is ideal. The later game we get, the more damage a large number of dead from a truthless damages. (I'm multitasking, so my grammar is gonna be garbage rn)

And these posts;

Quote

Winter- 

I could see Rae as Truthless. The asking people what their alignment is both in and out of PMs seems like it would look suspicious to someone tryin to be seen that way but also not an eliminator thing to do.

Quote

Winter- 

Honestly, if STINK was an elim, I doubt he'd be whining about being ignored. So I'm getting a village or truthless read on him. 

Both came before the post revealing that there wasn't a scanner.  So if Winter was trying to pretend to be a truthless, why say these things?  They don't seem to jive with the goal Winter put forwards.  Unless I'm misinterpreting what they were saying, which is always possible, however, after reading over the IKYK post again, I don't think I am.  And if I was, the other possible interpretation still stands with my argument, sort of.

Then there's also these:

Quote

Winter- 

I would vote Ecth, but I'm wondering-- what if Ecth has an actual role and was just lying because they didn't want to give it away. I'm torn. I'm suspicious of Rae, but nobody's voting for them so it's not like that'll do anything.  

You know what storm this Ecth

Quote

Winter- 

I dunno I felt like voting because it seemed like I should throw my vote on something, I wasn't really saying much. Cycle 1 is always irritating because we don't have very much INFORMATION. 

I'm gonna go Rae because if I've been saying I've been suspicious of them all day, I might as well flat out say it. 

Which seem to imply that Winter thinks Rae is an Elim, which is fine, but I couldn't find a lot of backing for those suspicions.  Plus, these occur after Winter's post stating that they could see Rae being a Truthless.  Then, most recently, they swap back to this;

Quote

Winter- 

I'm still thinking Rae is our Truthless and I'm going to risk voting because I don't have a useful role and I value getting rid of the Truthless over my own part in this game. 

Which doesn't make a lot of sense either.  Wouldn't it be best just to leave the Truthless alone?  Why vote on a Truthless at all?  Besides, wasn't Winter just saying that Rae was suspicious?  Seems a bit odd to me.

Most of this isn't super conclusive, I'll admit.  I have a bad gut read on Winter, so I just looked over all their stuff, and found some more reasons to be suspicious of them.  If they defend themselves adequately, I'll remove my vote, but...  Idk.  I don't have a lot of other suspicions just yet.  Just a little bit on Ecth from earlier.  Oddly I'm also suspicious of Rae, who Winter is suspicious of, but I'd like to wait a bit on that.

And, of course, I could just be totally wrong in every way.   This is the best I've got right now just bear with me ok.

More later, I think.  

Edited August 5, 2017 by Magestar
Quotes got all odd. Format stuff.

[Jondesu]

7 hours ago, Ecthelion III said:

Now that Stick is village, I'd say that Sart's argument against Arinian holds quite a bit more water.

I'm not going to vote yet, as I'd like to go through the thread and build my own suspicions first.

As Lopen pointed out, @Sart‘s accusation of Arinian seemed to actually be pretty short on logic. It seems like a tactic I’ve used as an Elim, picking someone who you can throw suspicion on and finding whatever you can. Sart, you have my vote for now.

[the winter system]

1 hour ago, Magestar said:

Mmk, I'm going to vote on Winter.  This vote might change as the day goes on, but I wanted to get a vote out there pretty early this cycle;  Basically as soon as I woke up.  

To start with, the whole thing about being a Truthless, (Or a secret survival role?  Wut?) seemed off to me.  It just didn't seem super helpful, and whether or not it ended up working, it just seemed odd.

This post seems to attempt to explain the whole thing, after it is revealed to Winter that their IKYK is flawed because there isn't a scanner role;

Which, Ok, I guess I could see that.  But this post;

And these posts;

Both came before the post revealing that there wasn't a scanner.  So if Winter was trying to pretend to be a truthless, why say these things?  They don't seem to jive with the goal Winter put forwards.  Unless I'm misinterpreting what they were saying, which is always possible, however, after reading over the IKYK post again, I don't think I am.  And if I was, the other possible interpretation still stands with my argument, sort of.

Then there's also these:

Which seem to imply that Winter thinks Rae is an Elim, which is fine, but I couldn't find a lot of backing for those suspicions.  Plus, these occur after Winter's post stating that they could see Rae being a Truthless.  Then, most recently, they swap back to this;

Which doesn't make a lot of sense either.  Wouldn't it be best just to leave the Truthless alone?  Why vote on a Truthless at all?  Besides, wasn't Winter just saying that Rae was suspicious?  Seems a bit odd to me.

Most of this isn't super conclusive, I'll admit.  I have a bad gut read on Winter, so I just looked over all their stuff, and found some more reasons to be suspicious of them.  If they defend themselves adequately, I'll remove my vote, but...  Idk.  I don't have a lot of other suspicions just yet.  Just a little bit on Ecth from earlier.  Oddly I'm also suspicious of Rae, who Winter is suspicious of, but I'd like to wait a bit on that.

And, of course, I could just be totally wrong in every way.   This is the best I've got right now just bear with me ok.

More later, I think.  

For the record if I was an Eliminator I'd probably have a whole doc of people telling me not to be an idiot. 

I figured the post was useless because nobody seemed to believe it. So I just gave up on that line of reasoning. I am a roleless villager. 

Also if I was evil I probably wouldn't be making so many comments along the lines of "I'm an idiot" and "read my other games I'm consistently an idiot." 

Go ahead, I act stupid in all of them! 

[TheMightyLopen]

8 hours ago, Ecthelion III said:

Now that Stick is village, I'd say that Sart's argument against Arinian holds quite a bit more water.

I'm not going to vote yet, as I'd like to go through the thread and build my own suspicions first.

I'd be more inclined to agree if he hadn't posted that 30 minutes before Stick was lynched, and I don't recall him ever saying he'd had a village read on Stick. So it was an out of the blue defense of Stick right before she's lynched with no previous defense of her, and condemning another player based on Stick being village.

36 minutes ago, winter devotion said:

For the record if I was an Eliminator I'd probably have a whole doc of people telling me not to be an idiot. 

I figured the post was useless because nobody seemed to believe it. So I just gave up on that line of reasoning. I am a roleless villager. 

Also if I was evil I probably wouldn't be making so many comments along the lines of "I'm an idiot" and "read my other games I'm consistently an idiot." 

Go ahead, I act stupid in all of them! 

To be fair, you might have posted all of that about the Truthless without consulting any teammates.  But anyways, don't be so harsh on yourself! So far my top 2 suspicions have been villagers, so you can't get much worse than that.

At this point, my top suspect is Sart, for his post at the end of last Cycle. After him, I'm not really sure, tbh. I really need to go over the player list player by player and try and get better information from players. I also should review everyone as well...but later.  Kinda busy atm, and won't be around for a few hours. After that, we'll see. I didn't sleep much last night, so I'm not sure how well I'll be able to function this cycle. >_>

[Magestar]

1 hour ago, winter devotion said:

For the record if I was an Eliminator I'd probably have a whole doc of people telling me not to be an idiot. 

I don't know that having a doc would necessarily change your posts that much.  A lot of people don't have their doc screen their posts - I don't even always do that - besides, the docs I've been in don't always contribute a lot.  Most players I've seen occasionally say what they're generally going to do, and once and a while ask for guidance/give it.

Plus, you haven't really been an idiot, per say.  Everyone makes mistakes, and I can't really be one to talk about not having read the rules thoroughly.  

1 hour ago, winter devotion said:

I am a roleless villager. 

Yes, I believe you've said this a few times.  

1 hour ago, winter devotion said:

Also if I was evil I probably wouldn't be making so many comments along the lines of "I'm an idiot" and "read my other games I'm consistently an idiot." 

Why not?  Why would being evil make you less likely to put yourself down?  It has basically the same effect as a villager or Elim.  Also, going to agree with Lopen here.  Don't be so harsh on yourself.  I might be suspicious of you, but suspicion isn't necessarily an indicator of intelligence, and the things you might have done 'wrong' aren't really what I'm suspicious of.

Gonna go take a look at Sart now.

Edited August 5, 2017 by Magestar
Clarifying some stuff. Also adding that last sentence.

[the winter system]

30 minutes ago, TheMightyLopen said:

I'd be more inclined to agree if he hadn't posted that 30 minutes before Stick was lynched, and I don't recall him ever saying he'd had a village read on Stick. So it was an out of the blue defense of Stick right before she's lynched with no previous defense of her, and condemning another player based on Stick being village.

To be fair, you might have posted all of that about the Truthless without consulting any teammates.  But anyways, don't be so harsh on yourself! So far my top 2 suspicions have been villagers, so you can't get much worse than that.

At this point, my top suspect is Sart, for his post at the end of last Cycle. After him, I'm not really sure, tbh. I really need to go over the player list player by player and try and get better information from players. I also should review everyone as well...but later.  Kinda busy atm, and won't be around for a few hours. After that, we'll see. I didn't sleep much last night, so I'm not sure how well I'll be able to function this cycle. >_>

Nah if you check me in my eliminator docs (LG12), I always ask to check if it's a good idea.

 

EDIT: And this ain't me being harsh on myself. You ain't seen nothing yet. Although being honest about insecurities to the thread does seem like a good tactic for when I'm evil... hm. Thanks for the suggestion.  but I'm not now. 

Edited August 5, 2017 by winter devotion

[Eternum]

Sorry I missed the last vote. IRL stuff, w/e. So, can anyone fill me in on anything notable that happened last cycle? Thanks in advance.

I don't really trust my phone to behave while I look through the pages.

[the winter system]

2 hours ago, Magestar said:

I don't know that having a doc would necessarily change your posts that much.  A lot of people don't have their doc screen their posts - I don't even always do that - besides, the docs I've been in don't always contribute a lot.  Most players I've seen occasionally say what they're generally going to do, and once and a while ask for guidance/give it.

I should also note that I tend to be extremely active in docs. 

Have I mentioned that I act like this in basically all of my games where I'm good? Except the self deprecating comments-- those are a new thing. 

[Young Bard]

Bleh. I knew time would be an issue with this and RL stuff. I still haven't read most of yesterdays posts, let alone todays - I intend to read over yesterdays posts before I go to bed, mull some things over when I go to bed, detailing my suspicions, and then post in the morning. Sorry all. I'll try and do something tonight though, so you don't just get this message (meaning at the time of writing this I intend to post a quick summary of probably incomprehensible thoughts after I read through that I can decipher in a more readable - and evidenced - fashion for you all in the morning.

Right. So Stick isn't an Eliminator. Darn. At least that's something that makes me slightly less guilty- it probably means that my absence didn't cost us anything when I was away yesterday, as I probably would have voted for them anyway, as my top suspicion from Day 1.

Just typing a splurge as I read through Day 2 and whats happened so far in Day 3:

Elith - EDIT (c. 1:40 am): Elith seems slightly elim to me through trying to cast suspicion on an edited post by Orlok, when the post was apparently only edited for typos. Probably worth me slapping a vote on him, and I might in the morning, unless I see something better through the readthrough, or if I change my mind with my more sensible morning self. I just don't trust my tired 1:30 am self to have a fair judgement of elim-ish behaviour, so I won't vote for him tonight. I probably will in the morning.

It's really strange. Len's post, when I try to objectively analyse it, feels villagery, but my gut read is Eliminatory. I'm trying to work out which I trust more. On the one hand, I have a terrible gut read, so I don't know why I still trust it in any way, and I may have tunnelled on Len for several of the games we played together (), but on the other hand, I wonder if the objective analysis being villagery is due to it being manufactured with the intent of being villagery, while Len is really an Elim. (If we're playing the 'reference the old SE games' game, I'll draw your attention to LG24 - where Aman was an Eliminator who's posts were aimed at being so squeaky clean in order to get everyone to trust him - successfully - before he killed 5 people in one night in a special attack. As a fellow Eliminator that game - I was nearly convinced he was a villager. )

Orlok - I don't understand where my vote count went wrong - I built mine on top of Flash's, assuming theirs was correct - did I do something stupid like missing a page, or did Flash? (This is mostly rhetorical, by the way - I don't expect you to answer this. It's probably something I'll chase down to verify in the morning, because I don't understand where the error is.) I'm trying to work out which alignment would have more to gain by correcting me. I honestly can't tell. I'm trying to work out whether I'm just being really paranoid of you right now, because part of me feels like I should trust you, and part of me really doesn't.

Gah. At this point, I feel like my sleepy brain is just casting paranoia on every post I read right now. This is what happens when you try to squeeze in SE at 12:30 in the morning... I'll try going onwards - I'm not sure why - I might do a re-read again in the morning anyway pending time, because I'm not sure how useful this current read is right now.

Ecth's post seems village to me, strangely. They seem... unconcerned in a casual way by their near-lynch, which doesn't feel forced to me.

You know, for a 'quick summary', this is turning into something that looks more akin to a stream-of-consciousness post. And all you lucky folks get to read it. Anyhow...

Rae - good point. I hadn't considered that. Still, apparently, my initial distribution guesses were flawed, so I'll post a fresh distribution analysis in the morning after I verify Orlok's stats. (Quick note that I didn't note in Orlok's post, and I'm not going to, because this post is going to be confusing enough without me bouncing back and forth up and down the post as I think of things: Adjusted impressions of the alignment of the various role distributions if Orlok's stats are correct would be that the Eliminators would have a Dustbringer, but that's a guess, and I might change my mind in the morning.)

Eternum - I think I was one of the people who said I was suspicious of you... I'm trying to remember why I was now... (Loads a third tab to look at the Day 1 thread so as not to lose my place in the Day 2 thread and this post here...) Ah, yeah, that's right - you seemed to be too... casual about throwing suspicions around, and hopping on to agree with other people who were suspicious without adding to the discussion. I'm trying to get to bed before 1:30 at the latest (it's 12:50 now), so I'm not going to go hunting for the way you voted tonight for how you voted across the day, but either not voting after voicing suspicions, or doing the opposite and voting several times throughout the cycle, particularly without heavy evidence behind it, would also make me more suspicious. I think you were one of the two, but I can't remember which (I saw both in the Day 1 thread, which made me slightly suspicious of multiple people - something I meant to talk about yesterday and then didn't. :/ )

Jebus - I have a slight village read of Jebus - I got a really village read from him when he asked how to colour text on the Shard in the Discord Chat towards the end of Day 1 (which, I know stuff on the Discord Chat isn't meant to influence the game, but that's my fault, not Jebus's, for reading more into it than I should. Sorry.) To me, that feels like something that Jebus would ask his Elim buddies if he had them, and the fact that he didn't makes me trust him. On the other hand, if Jebus turns out to be evil, then I'm sure that at least one of Rae, Lopen, or Orlok would be as well, in order to suggest this trick to him for the exact reason of making people think he's village. Anyway, I think I was going somewhere with this. Oh yeah. So his post sounds villagery to me, but I'm 80% sure that's just confirmation bias. EDIT: (Yeah, yeah, I know I said I wouldn't go back and edit paragraphs I've already written, to reduce confusion. Or have I said that yet? Hence the confusion I'm talking about. Anyway, I think it's well and truly established that 1:00 me has no consistency whatsoever. Anyway.) I actually think the "Do the Skybreakers know who the other Skybreakers are" line, which I must have somehow missed in the first post, feels like it takes the exact thing that made me think it's village and takes it too far, because that line feels like it's *trying* to achieve that. So... I'm back to neutral on him. And I think one of Rae, Lopen or Orlok are evil, which I might have guessed any way for balance reasons, but oh well. (maybe Len or Mage as well, now I think about it - how active has Len been in games while I've been away, anyone? (Again, mostly rhetorical. I'll probably have forgotten I wrote this in the morning anyway. (Oh, look, nested parentheses (Are you enjoying being inside my head when I post my unfiltered thoughts?  )))) (Is that the right number of closing parentheses? (Yeah.))

*sigh* I'm not going to be going to bed by 1:30, am I? I've done less than a page so far. I might try and move along quicker from here on out. (Which I had been intending to do all along, so I could just be lying to myself - and continue commenting nearly every post.)

Sami - meh. Too little content to tell. I'd prefer if you post more, Sami. Then again, I'm not one to talk, seeing as I just took I hiatus in the middle of a QF, so... :/

DA - (goes back and rereads Jebus's post - not going my new thoughts on that here.) Hmmm... You apparently had *exactly* the same thought process as I did just there. Interesting. So, because of that, I feel like I should trust you. But I don't. Of course I don't. Because my brain is making me paranoid of everything. It seems to be a much more logical post from you than I'm used to. However, I think that should be encouraged, so I'm going to wave away my paranoia on this for now, and keep going, and put you roughly neutral on the list from most elimmy to most villagery.

DA (again) - Hmmm... this post seems... strange. I'm probably going to read through this in the morning with my head in my hand at the terribleness of all this analysis, so I'll tag this post for my sensible, awake me to see and think about then. (If people are confused where I'm up to, this should also place where my comments are up to in the thread. Yeah, let's just say I'm doing that.)

Jon - I'd found that weird too, but I feel that Eliminator!PK would have removed the vote after... someone, maybe you, called him out on it Day 1, but he didn't. Strangely, I'm not thinking Truthless, either - I'm thinking right now that he's just a villager that was bored, didn't think at the time that Flash was going to have a serious chance of getting lynched, and when there was he was offline, and didn't really have anyone better to vote for.

Winter - I feel like it's an Elim 101 strategy to start PM's and be friendly, to recieve claims and to seem like a villager to everyone else. (Thinks about how I intended to start a PM with *everybody* Cycle 1, before I ran out of time after getting to about 4 people, and how elim-ish I myself would have found that... moving on...) Then again, being friendly could just be being friendly. (*tries furiously in a IKYK-like loop to think about whether I'm being paranoid of Orlok, or whether I'm overcompensating for my paranoia of Orlok, or whether I'm overcompensating for my over-compensation of my paranoia of Orlok, or whether... nevermind. I think you get the picture. I have no clue about Orlok's alignment.*) Also, you don't need to worry about acting stupid, Winter - I may or may not be taking crown prize for that this game with this post. We'll see.

Also, it's 1:30, and I've barely gotten through a page. Great. Let's see if I can make 2:15... (Probably not. But don't break this dream for me...)

Stick - I was the person who PM'ed Elith - see my Grand super Evil Happy and Cheerful Plan to PM everyone and see which PM's got some sort of response, and the fact that Elith is first on the list meant he got one when I tried to do that. But, I can't PM you now, since... you're dead. Sorry. Also, why you seemed suspicious? I *just* closed the Day 1 tab - I'll open that for a living person for me to talk about why I'm suspicious, but for a dead person, that can probably wait until the morning. Sorry. (And by 'the morning', that means: probably never, in this case.) EDIT: Gah. I just realized you meant the person who said Orlok had changed their post. To clarify, that wasn't me. All I did was start up a post saying, roughly. "Hey Elithanathile... Huh. Your name is really long and confusing. Have you got a nickname? I wouldn't know - I've been away a while." To date, he hasn't responded to the PM, though he did clarify that Elith or... something else, I can't remember, would be an acceptable nickname.

Wilson - Rewriting my post on Elith up top. Dunno what Elith thought he saw - maybe it was an honest mistake, maybe it was an attempt at casting suspicion in an unverifiable way. I'd ask him to clarify, but... I'm sure he's probably already done so after other people asked him. The joys of being late to the party.

And my mother just walked in and was saying "What the hell are you still doing up?" Me: "Uhhh... Good question. I'm not quite sure." Them: "*rolls eyes*" (Why did I just put that in speech marks? That's silly. Anyway. I might be going to bed without finishing this in a couple minutes. Or I might not. I'll see. On the one hand, that might be a relief for all of you reading this...)

Hmmm... more sus of Jebus now.

(Actually skipping over things faster now...)

Stink - your post makes sense. I agree.

Arinian seems to be disagreeing for the sake of diagreeing rather than trying to promote conversation or to make a point, if that makes sense. Again, might be my really tired, addled brain speaking. Weak Elim read. If they are, then that would make Len and Ecth slightly more likely to be villagers.

Stick - did Elith mention a PM contact??? Huh. I *just* reread that post, and I didn't remember anything about that. Hmmm... it does. I don't know how I missed that. (Yes I do. It's because I'm tired and not thinking properly... Oh well.) I'm not rewriting Elith's post again - I'm assuming I'll here more about this going on, so I'll say I'm suspicious of this PM contact, whoever they turn out to be. Which is probably already obvious. Anyway.

Even though it's Jebus's first game, I still think Jebus would know that Elims have a Doc together - I'm pretty sure he asked me a question similar to that when he was reading through the SE rules and General Etiquette. I think it makes more sense as a trick gone to far. But... I could be tunnelling. At this point, I'm not sure. I'm interested in seeing what others think. (If anybody is actually insane enough to read this. Which they probably aren't. I'll probably do a TL;DR, in 'the morning'. Meaning I probably won't, again. Oh well.)

The conversation on Ecth seemed to have died down before Yitzi brought it up again. A villager, trying to continue with their reads, or an Elim, trying to flog the dead horse? Decisions, decisions... Eh, I'll say they're very weakly village-y to me. But that's subject to change. Also, on page 15. Finally.

The conversation turning back on Ecth seems to have stifled other conversations elsewhere, with Yitzi and Stick going back there in quick succession. If Yitzi's an Elim, then someone else under suspicion (Elith, possibly?) could be as well.

Lopen - hadn't we established it was Rae that had sent those PM's, hence why they were under suspicion Day 1?

Mega - I don't know whether you continue to read games after your death, so you might not see this - I could summon you, I suppose, but I'm not sure it's worth the effort - but, I think it's better in SE if you don't delete posts, even if you want to add new content to it, in order to prevent rephrasings - a similar issue to what Wilson mentioned before.

Stick - I take it Sebas is Elith, but who's Silver? (Again, rhetorical. I'm looking it up now, and it's... Roadwalker. Hmmm... Interesting. Roadwalker was one of those that seemed to tunnel on Flash based on the opening RP, which was just weird, frankly. But, that's little more than a weak read for me. Still, worth looking into in the morning. (I voted on Flash, but it was mainly because of his responses afterwards, and because the other alternative was Ecth, who I was less suspicious of.)

Also, my page just froze for a second there, and I was *really* worried that the page would crash, and I'd lose my work. (*copies work so far into a OneNote Doc, to confuse myself in 6 months when I find it.*)

Lopen - "He's going back and forth a lot, like he doesn't want to have a stance that could hurt him. It's like, he's not really saying anything here. Maybe he just hasn't had the time to form a lot of opinions, but I don't like the phrasing or the content." (*looks back up my post, cringes*)  Sorry about... this ^ by the way. I did intend to have a more cohesive post, (and still do), but... maybe a more unfiltered post can help people get reads or something? Never mind. To be honest, this is partly for me, to be able to get something down amidst IRL, and not go over endless revisions and nitpicks and ending up not posting anything, and just to catch up. The trick, for me, is trying to find the balance between 'splurge', which this will be a great example of, and endless nitpicking. Anyway, about the actual contents: I think I trust Lopen. But... I generally get a gut trust read on Lopen, so that's not saying much.

Rae - you go to all of that trouble putting together an ISO of Stick's posts, making me sure you were leading up to something. (I mean, you post a line saying "I think such and such a standpoint, or lack thereof seems suspicious", but I thought that you were leading up to a more meaty paragraph suggesting Stick be lynched or something, but you don't even vote for them. So, I'm suspicious of that? You seem to be trying to hedge to make people suspicious of Stick without coming out strongly yourself. So, I'll say I have a moderate suspicion of you right now. In fact, you're my best guess at a Truthless right now, to be honest - I don't think anyone else has been posting content that's still alive that I could be consistently saying would be suspicious, which I think I can about you. But... I'm not sure. At this point, though, I'd be willing to risk a Rae lynch, depending on how Elith responds to the "Orlok edited his post" claims.

Orlok - I would really like to respond to many of these, but I don't have great context for many of the things you're responding to, so I'll respond to mine first, and see what else jumps out at me. Regarding my suspicion of Stick, it's similar reasons to Rae - I found an inconsistency between their suspicions from post to post, a shying away from voting, on top of a general bad gut read. I would go into further detail (and I might, if the situation warrants it), but with Stick now being dead, I'd prefer to go on with analysing players who aren't yet dead. (This is just due to my poor timeliness though, so... sorry I didn't get to this last cycle.) In my second post you referenced: My analysis, to the best of my knowledge, was correct. I don't understand at what point my analysis was incorrect, and intend to discover that in the morning (my leading guess is that Flash skipped a page when gathering up his vote tally, because I don't think I did, and it's the only point where the tally I was basing my analysis off could have gone wrong, I think.) I'm sorry I caused confusion with that post (though that seems to have been sorted out fairly quickly, luckily.) OK, other thoughts - you vote on PK, and yet you seem much more suspicious of Elith throughout your post - it makes me wonder whether you're Elim buddies (although... if you were Elim buddies, it would make no sense for Elith to have told that lie in the first place, I suppose, so... I don't know. I still am getting a weak Elim gut vibe from parts of your post that I'm trying to place. Also, I can confirm I was the player who PM'ed Elith and asked him what an abbreviation of his name could be, though that fact is likely irrelevant now that Stick is dead. However, there was no correspondence about your post, or basically any game-relevant content, in that PM (to date, Elith hasn't responded in the PM chain. My introduction was only about 3 lines long.) I'm assuming either someone else PM'ed Elith, or they made up the "PM partner" who raised the point about Orlok's post.

Orlok pt. 2 - (starting a new paragraph because the old one was looking too much like a wall of text) - I've mentioned it above, but I find Jebus's post troubling to. I know they've read the rules and Etiquette guidelines, and I think the fact that the Elims have a doc seems fairly obvious, and makes me wonder the previous time they asked a question in the Discord Chat and this might have been an attempt to get people to think they were a villager for not asking game questions to their Eliminator buddies. I mentioned above that I thought if Jebus was an Elim, I think an experienced player probably is too, now I'm thinking either both of you are Elims or neither of you are. I'm putting both of you on a moderate suspicion ranking.

PK - Hmmm... I think you've already posted before on this cycle after people were wondering about who Elith's contact was, IIRC. Why did you not claim earlier? Also, Elith's post seemed to suggest you were much more suspicious of Orlok than you seem to suggest. That could be lost in translation, but it's a stretch. Moderate to strong suspicion on both of you, I think. Unless you or Elith are Truthless. I'm definitely going to go back and read both of your posts in the morning.

Elith - Before, my gut was saying you were Eliminator. Now my analysis is saying you're an Eliminator, through your almost pre-empting of the criticism of the vote from Stick, and my gut is saying you're neutral. So, I don't know. I'm not suspicious of Stink right now, though.

Also, it's now past 3AM. >> I didn't think I'd be going this long. Still, nearly done... If I continue on at this rate, I'll actually be able to go to bed before I get up in the morning.

Rae - "Stick: Your ISO makes it seem like you're tunnelling" Rae: Here's another ISO Me: *snickers* - OK, I kind of feel similarly about this than I did your previous ISO. At least you voted and had a summation this time, which just feels better, so I'd say it's slightly less suspicious as an Elim/Truthless thing than the last one, but only slightly. If there's a Truthless (and I say if, because I'm thinking Ecth might have chosen not to include one just to see how we react), then I think Rae is my best bet right now.

Final page! Yay! (I'm not going to get to today's posts - that can be done in the morning.)

Lopen - Hmmm... Good point about Sart. It's the only post he made C2, and I don't *remember* any posts from him C1 either. They're usually quiet, but the one post he did make does seem to be about something strangely distant from where all the discussion is, as though they're trying to turn discussion away from fellow Eliminators. I'd say I have a weak to moderate suspicion of Sart, particularly if Lopen is village.

Yay! Final page is short, and I get to go to bed. Night all.

Oh, one final thing to remind myself that I *must* talk about in the morning: Why on earth did they murder Drake and Megasif? They seem fairly random to me... Most of it is probably trying to avoid the Lightweavers, but nevertheless, I thought they'd go for more active players or something. I'm guessing the Elims were probably trying to find people with roles, which makes me think that the Elims don't yet know who the people with roles are. I.e. if you have a vote manip role, and you claimed already, first, shame on you for claiming in the first 2 cycles , and second, you can probably be relatively sure that the person you claimed to is also a villager, or a Truthless, by the fact that you're not dead. Which... you probably could have worked out for yourself anyway, but those are the pearls of wisdom my 3:30 brain has to offer. I might get back onto this in the morning. Night all (again).

[Sart]

6 hours ago, Jondesu said:

As Lopen pointed out, @Sart‘s accusation of Arinian seemed to actually be pretty short on logic. It seems like a tactic I’ve used as an Elim, picking someone who you can throw suspicion on and finding whatever you can. Sart, you have my vote for now.

I voted on Arinian for 3 reasons.

1. Gut vote: Something in his posts rubbed me the wrong way. I needed to post to avoid the inactivity filter, and I wanted to vote to do my duty to the thread.
2. Throwing suspicion: During cycle 2, he voiced suspicion of 5 different people in one post. Now, that's not terrible, but he didn't vote on a single one of them. I suspect that he was trying to get us to lynch one of the candidates without getting his hands dirty. The post is on page 14 if you want to look at it.
3. His vote on stick: His reasoning in his post was "If you want it. Shrug" I'm not against adding a second vote to a player, but doing it that way rubbed me wrong the wrong way. It seemed too opportunist. I wasn't sure if Stick was village or not, but I was worried that we were lynching Stick because he talked a lot. I wanted to put my vote on someone who was quieter. We have a bad tendency to lynch vocal players, which kills discussion.

I'm a bit worried about having two votes on me. I know I'm village, although you have no reason to believe me. If I was really an eliminator, don't you think I would have tried to defend Stick more? That way I would look better during the next cycle.

[Sparkrunner]

@The Young Bard could you link me to tunneling on flash? (Mostly just to keep the inactivity filter from getting me.) Our internet up here is Terri me.

 

 

[TheMightyLopen]

19 minutes ago, Sart said:

I voted on Arinian for 3 reasons.

1. Gut vote: Something in his posts rubbed me the wrong way. I needed to post to avoid the inactivity filter, and I wanted to vote to do my duty to the thread.
2. Throwing suspicion: During cycle 2, he voiced suspicion of 5 different people in one post. Now, that's not terrible, but he didn't vote on a single one of them. I suspect that he was trying to get us to lynch one of the candidates without getting his hands dirty. The post is on page 14 if you want to look at it.
3. His vote on stick: His reasoning in his post was "If you want it. Shrug" I'm not against adding a second vote to a player, but doing it that way rubbed me wrong the wrong way. It seemed too opportunist. I wasn't sure if Stick was village or not, but I was worried that we were lynching Stick because he talked a lot. I wanted to put my vote on someone who was quieter. We have a bad tendency to lynch vocal players, which kills discussion.

I'm a bit worried about having two votes on me. I know I'm village, although you have no reason to believe me. If I was really an eliminator, don't you think I would have tried to defend Stick more? That way I would look better during the next cycle.

Well then. I read this post strongly village. It just feels honest somehow. I don't know if I agree with everything in the post, but it's made me change my mind. At least for now. One last thing though Sart - who would you suggest we lynch at this point? I'm kinda out of lynch-able suspects right now. . .

[Eternum]

I feel ignored.

Bard, I wasn't adding to the discussion because I had nothing to add. I was just agreeing with everyone because I figured, if I was friendly to the villagers they wouldn't be as suspicious of me, and if I was being friendly to the elims there's a slight chance that they wouldn't kill me first

Looking back on it, it was suspicious, but I figure I could have made people more suspicious... Except somehow, I proceeded to do exactly that. News flash, I'm not good at this.

Also, Bard, I think you're getting a bit of tunnel vision. (Rae was suspicious of me using SE/Mafia terminology at the beginning of Cycle 2. One of the pinned posts explains the terminology. There's no reason not to use it.)

I know actually mentioning these things myself will make you guys more suspicious, but I don't really care.

First, I asked how many elims there are. An actual elim would know that, if only by how many people are on the doc.

Then, I asked the exact same question you say made you think Jebus can be village.

Now, in this Cycle, I asked if anything notable happened last Cycle while I wasn't active. An elim would have simply asked in doc. (I'll also mention nobody has answered this question yet ¬_¬)

Maybe this will clear things up, maybe it won't. Either way, this (SE in general, for all you over analyzers here) is oddly fun. Makes my paranoia resurface, but I think being paranoid is a decent trait to have in this community

I still have no idea who to vote for because I cannot for the life of me track you guys' trains of thought.

Edited August 5, 2017 by Eternum
Cleared something up.

[Jondesu]

1 hour ago, Sart said:

If I was really an eliminator, don't you think I would have tried to defend Stick more? That way I would look better during the next cycle.

I’ll look over Arinian more including those posts you mentioned, but to respond to this: no, I don’t think that you necessarily would have. See, too many times, people say “They knew that player was innocent, since they’re an Elim and know everyone’s alignment, and that’s why they were so sure when they were defending them!” And honestly, as a villager, you’d have no real proof that Stick was a villager, but if you were an Elim, you’d know for sure, but you’re smart enough to not go too heavy handed with a defense in order to not draw attention to yourself too much.

However, your logic in the vote on Arinian is sound even if I don’t end up agreeing (and I don’t think I do), and you feel sincere for now, so I’ll remove my vote. Sart. Not going to vote on someone else just yet, I haven’t gotten to read enough today yet.

[Arinian]

2 hours ago, Sart said:

I voted on Arinian for 3 reasons.

1. Gut vote: Something in his posts rubbed me the wrong way. I needed to post to avoid the inactivity filter, and I wanted to vote to do my duty to the thread.
2. Throwing suspicion: During cycle 2, he voiced suspicion of 5 different people in one post. Now, that's not terrible, but he didn't vote on a single one of them. I suspect that he was trying to get us to lynch one of the candidates without getting his hands dirty. The post is on page 14 if you want to look at it.
3. His vote on stick: His reasoning in his post was "If you want it. Shrug" I'm not against adding a second vote to a player, but doing it that way rubbed me wrong the wrong way. It seemed too opportunist. I wasn't sure if Stick was village or not, but I was worried that we were lynching Stick because he talked a lot. I wanted to put my vote on someone who was quieter. We have a bad tendency to lynch vocal players, which kills discussion.

I'm a bit worried about having two votes on me. I know I'm village, although you have no reason to believe me. If I was really an eliminator, don't you think I would have tried to defend Stick more? That way I would look better during the next cycle.

1. As Stick said before she was lynched "Can't do nothing with your gut" or something like that, I'm too can't do nothing with your gut. All what I can say that I act in much different way when I elim. When I'm elim I don't throw many suspicions cause I not very good in imitating suspiciouns. Also when I elim I building atleast some ground before to vote on someone... elim!Arin surely wouldn't vote for Stick in way as I voted.

2. I don't know what you saw in that, but as I know it's normal for villagers to have more suspiciouns then even possible number of elims in game. Also how I avoided my hands getting dirty when I was first who voiced suspicions of stick on turn 1? And also I was first who voted on stick on previous cycle. Of course I did it's after Lopen asked but I voiced many suspiciouns of Stick before, aren't I? Also I can give you answer why I not voted before... You never was getting feeling that all your suspicions wrong and you just dumb, no? Also I was not sure on whom I want to vote.

3. Next time when I will vote on someone I surely will copypaste my suspiciouns from my previous post.

Also I don't see why elim!Sart would tried to defend Stick, if you defended Stick more maybe you would  have saved her... I don't know but if my mind don't fails me elims surely want mislynches, so defending Stick it's not something that elims want... Also maybe you thought that it's will be easy to get me lynched after Stick's mislynch so you started preparing ground.

But honestly right now I don't think that you are elim... cause you know... it's looked like too stupid move for elim(but that logic of underestimating or overestimating couple times failed me so I'm not so sure).

Will vote later...