Quick Fix Game 25: A Sundered Sky

[Yitzi2]

2 minutes ago, Paranoid King said:

It's my policy that D1 bandwagons are almost always villagers, because elims have info and villagers don't.

I would be more inclined to say that D1 bandwagons are almost always villagers because D1 bandwagons usually aren't going on any real info, so they might as well be random, and D1 there are a lot more villagers to be randomly lynched than there are elims.

[Paranoid King]

1 hour ago, TheMightyLopen said:

What exactly did you vote on Flash for?

I just looked at the player list and voted on the first person whose name I recognized.

The reason I gave in-thread was because he was fast enough to do it without being spotted.

[Jondesu]

22 hours ago, Paranoid King said:

Hem. Well, hrmm. Most unexpected. Guess we're going home early, guys!

No? Well then.

I'm pretty sure it was Flash, as he was quick enough to do the deed without anyone seeing. We shall avenge. Person. Brightness lady person. I don't know her name. And someone pick up that shardblade before it gets muddy or something!

 

1 minute ago, TheMightyLopen said:

I'm currently leaning Flash over Stick as well, but we'll see. My opinion, and more importantly, my vote, might not make any difference at this point.

What exactly did you vote on Flash for?

Yeah, that’s why I called him out on it. 

My home internet is down and I get only this last post via mobile this cycle before I won’t be able to connect again, so I’ll leave my vote as it is. Best of luck to the rest of you and hope you survive the next few hours until I check the thread again.

[Paranoid King]

1 hour ago, Yitzi2 said:

I would be more inclined to say that D1 bandwagons are almost always villagers because D1 bandwagons usually aren't going on any real info, so they might as well be random, and D1 there are a lot more villagers to be randomly lynched than there are elims.

That's true too. But on the off chance that an elim is voted on, the elims are teamed up. They can get together and say, "Actually this person is more suspicious, and here's why."

The villagers don't care one way or the other who gets lynched, because they don't know anything about either of them. So most of the votes will go towards a villager, because more people are giving evidence to lynch that villager.

[Yitzi2]

6 minutes ago, Jondesu said:

Yeah, that’s why I called him out on it.

I do seem to remember a recent game in which I called someone out for a clearly spurious D1 vote and I'm pretty sure he wasn't an elim.  (In my last 3 games I was an elim, so I think I'd remember if that person was also an elim.)  Don't remember the details at the moment, though, and not interested in taking the time to try to find them.

[Elithanathile]

Okay, I am also now back and I see I got called to state why I had my suspicions slightly earlier, so going to do that now.

1st up, Winter. I don't know their playstyle very much since they were before my time, but they did seem to be drawing quite a bit of focus, and didn't quite seem to fit in with how I thought a villager would act. I don't know in the end though, so it's partially a gut read. Another part of it is that if El's such a troll GM as you all seem to say, is it really so far off to say that he'd toss the returning player in as an Elim for their first game in a while?

2nd, Ecth. I will confess that both stating alignment and possible role makes him somewhat suspicious, and ever more so since he hasn't really defended himself from that so far as I've seen. I have done the same thing before, just putting down what I thought it was instead of the exact wording before, (and in the wrong color too.) and I ended up getting lynched that cycle. So I know it's possible for it to be a mistake. So still suspicious, but holding off for now.

Lastly, STINK. Now I'm voting on him as well because he does seem very suspicious in my eyes. Most of the games I remember, STINK has played by giving quick one or two line long posts. Except for when he's an elim. Then he tends to write 5-6 line long ones and has more analysis. Now I know it's not a perfect way to tell if he's good or evil, but it has worked out okay in the past. Also wanting to not be ignored in the read lists is understandable, but could also be seen as wanting to make sure he's not under suspicion. So I decided to vote on him this cycle, at least partially to show my stance on the matter. Since Ecthelion seems to be getting lynched anyway by the current look of it.

So yep, voting on STINK this time and quite possibly in the future, depending on how things go. Flash doesn't seem too suspect to me, and neither does Jondesu. I will confess though that I haven't really done any analysis on them or anything, but I have read all of the thread and didn't really see anything that stood out to me. Not too suspicious of Stick either, although that could change without too much trouble, and same goes for PK or Arrenae.

[Sami]

Honestly, I feel like people are reading into Ecths post too much. It could just be a simple unfortunate wording and I don't really get how that makes him suspicious. But I could be wrong (as aforesaid bad at reading people thing)

[the winter system]

Ecth 

I dunno I felt like voting because it seemed like I should throw my vote on something, I wasn't really saying much. Cycle 1 is always irritating because we don't have very much INFORMATION. 

I'm gonna go Rae because if I've been saying I've been suspicious of them all day, I might as well flat out say it. 

[Orlok Tsubodai]

4 hours ago, Flash said:

Ok so here are my thoughts after rereading the thread. 

The way Eternum hopped on to vote me sets off so many alarm bells. However I am going to give him the benefit of the doubt, I don't want to lynch a brand new player his first cycle, even if he is an elim. I was an elim my very first game, so I can sympathize if he's evil. If he's still suspicious in a few cycles or so, I'll be more aggressive towards him. 

Stink is feeling lonely. Here's a vote stink to let you know you aren't forgotten. (I will retract that vote lol)

I'm in a PM with Lopen, who brought up this post as worthy of attention. He argues that it feels like setting up a future lynch target as an eliminator, that the suspicion feels forced, and that the vote is an out, rather than meant. I'm not sure that Lopen will get on again before the end of the cycle, but wanted to put this in the thread. 

I don't like the lynch of Ecthelion. As I said in my multi quote, I had a long string of C1 and C2 deaths, and it isn't fun. Ecthelion has had such a string recently, too, and I very much don't think that this bandwagon on him is justified, particularly given his recent history of early deaths. 

I'm not convinced by Lopen's argument, nor by the other arguments in thread calling for Flash's lynch, but I think its a stronger lynch, and a kinder lynch, than the current bandwagon on Ecthelion.

As such, I'm going to vote on The Flash, and retract on Roadwalker (although I do intend to put more pressure on Roadwalker next cycle.

I'd call on @winter devotion, @Megasif, @_Stick_, @STINK, @Roadwalker, and anyone else I've missed to similarly consider changing their vote, and would ping @Ecthelion III, in case he hasn't seen the side of this bandwagon.

[the winter system]

6 minutes ago, Orlok Tsubodai said:

I'm in a PM with Lopen, who brought up this post as worthy of attention. He argues that it feels like setting up a future lynch target as an eliminator, that the suspicion feels forced, and that the vote is an out, rather than meant. I'm not sure that Lopen will get on again before the end of the cycle, but wanted to put this in the thread. 

I don't like the lynch of Ecthelion. As I said in my multi quote, I had a long string of C1 and C2 deaths, and it isn't fun. Ecthelion has had such a string recently, too, and I very much don't think that this bandwagon on him is justified, particularly given his recent history of early deaths. 

I'm not convinced by Lopen's argument, nor by the other arguments in thread calling for Flash's lynch, but I think its a stronger lynch, and a kinder lynch, than the current bandwagon on Ecthelion.

As such, I'm going to vote on The Flash, and retract on Roadwalker (although I do intend to put more pressure on Roadwalker next cycle.

I'd call on @winter devotion, @Megasif, @_Stick_, @STINK, @Roadwalker, and anyone else I've missed to similarly consider changing their vote, and would ping @Ecthelion III, in case he hasn't seen the side of this bandwagon.

I changed my vote in the post above yours to Rae 

[Young Bard]

1 hour ago, Elithanathile said:

Lastly, STINK. Now I'm voting on him as well because he does seem very suspicious in my eyes. Most of the games I remember, STINK has played by giving quick one or two line long posts. Except for when he's an elim. Then he tends to write 5-6 line long ones and has more analysis. Now I know it's not a perfect way to tell if he's good or evil, but it has worked out okay in the past. Also wanting to not be ignored in the read lists is understandable, but could also be seen as wanting to make sure he's not under suspicion. So I decided to vote on him this cycle, at least partially to show my stance on the matter. Since Ecthelion seems to be getting lynched anyway by the current look of it.

...I'm putting a pin in this to remind myself to respond to this later, because I probably won't get to it before rollover. In short, there are meta reasons why I disagree with this vote - If Stink is actually doing analysis in games, thats something that should be encourage, not discouraged by lynching him.

Orlok and Lopen (I think it was Lopen - if it was someone else, I'm sorry - I can't remember off the top of my head, and I'm too lazy to go back and check.): I do think knowing how many Stonewards and Dustbringers we have is helpful - it allows us to guess the balance of the game better - whether the elims have a smaller team with more abilities, or a larger team with less, the alignment of the Stonewards/Dustbringers in the game (which is practically impossible to guess Cycle 1, but you can get a sense of it over a few cycles.) Finally, my argument was intended to generate discussion, and to act as a means for me to try and get reads on the various players by the way they responded and the reasons they gave for being for/against it.

I really don't find Ecth suspicious at all, really. Flash, I don't know his playstyle at all, but he seems slightly Elim-ish to me. My most suspicious read, however, especially out of the candidates on the board, is Stick. It's... mostly gut, although there are some things that particularly struck me as off that I'd go into depth if it weren't right at the end of the cycle (sorry :/ - I had an IRL event, and wasn't able to get on until this point, so this if my first opportunity to respond to all the things that have happened since I went to bed yesterday) Actually, I'm kind of worried that Stick is a Truthless, but I think a Day 1 lynch of some kind would be useful, because I think it will net us some information regardless of alignment. (Also, I said I was going to vote last night - I didn't, I'm sorry - I had an IRL thing, and then I had second thoughts about voting on Stick last night, so I went to bed.)

After this, I'm going to go and do a vote count, and see if I can get an accurate one up by the end of the cycle (probably not, but I can try). Tonight, I'll do a much more in depth analysis of Stick's and Flash's posts, as they appear to be the runner ups of tonights lynch, give a general rundown of suspicions, hopefully with a piece of evidence or two for each to give something better to respond to than a 'gut read', hopefully get an RP up, and try and make a guess about El's balancing based on how many Stonewards and Dustbringers we know there to be.

Edited August 4, 2017 by The Young Bard
Typo

[the winter system]

Stick and STINK keep getting confused in my head. I need to sleep hahaha. 

[Young Bard]

Vote Tally (assuming Flash's is correct at the time he posted it): 

Jondesu (1) Elenion

Flash (4) PK, Eternum, Arranae, Orlok

Megasif (1) Jondesu

Stick (3) Arinian, Drake, Bard

Ecth (5) stink, roadrunner, megasif, stick, flash

Roadwalker(1) Elithanathile

Rae (1) Winter

There. Ecth is getting lynched with 5 minutes in the Cycle, and the only other reasonable lynch candidate is Flash. I found some of his posts to be an Eliminator gut read, but I was more suspicious of Ecth. (This is where it would be useful to know how many vote manips there are as well - trying to work out whether I should switch now).

Ah, nevermind. Stick, Flash. I just don't understand the lynch on Ecth - it feels more like a way of shifting the lynch onto an easy player by the feel of things than anything else.

Vote Tally (assuming Flash's is correct at the time he posted it): 

Jondesu (1) Elenion

Flash (5) PK, Eternum, Arranae, Orlok, Bard

Megasif (1) Jondesu

Stick (2) Arinian, Drake

Ecth (5) stink, roadrunner, megasif, stick, flash

Roadwalker(1) Elithanathile

Rae (1) Winter

[Elbereth]

Cycle is over! New cycle will be up as soon as I adjust the vote tally again. >> 

[Elbereth]

QF25: Hour 2 - Falling
7 a.m.

 Spiff slowly gets up from the ground. Aaliyah doesn’t seem to notice, absorbed in prayer as she is, but there’s no one else close enough to have tripped him. 

“Aaliyah?”

She inclines her head to him, but continues her prayers. 

“Fine then,” Spiff says, grinning. He hooks a foot under one of her legs and yanks. She stumbles. 

“Not fair!” cries Johnny Quick, and Spiff feels his own leg yanked again, falling atop Aaliyah. 

This seems to create a chain reaction. Each recruit, losing some of the stress from the two dead bodies in the room, trips or is tripped by another until every person alive is in a massive pile atop Aaliyah. 

Spiff smells blood. He can barely breathe with the weight of the pile atop him, but he manages to croak out, “Guys? Um. I think someone’s dead.”

That causes chaos. Those on top scramble away hastily, while those below struggle and attempt to get away while running into everyone else. 

In the end, Johnny Quick is found to have been crushed by the weight of the mob. He technically still breathes, but his ever waking is uncertain. A servant takes him away. 

Everyone shifts, looking at each other. They all know that it’s their fault he died. 

What they don’t find for a few minutes is that someone is missing from that circle. Aaliyah seemed alive when everyone stood up, but she didn’t follow them, and when someone asks if she’s okay, she doesn’t respond. 

Gingerly, her body is turned over, and the dagger which was inserted into her ribs falls out enough to let blood pool around her. 

---

Drake has died! He was a New Recruit studying Elsecalling. 
Flash was lynched! He was a New Recruit studying Dustbringing. 

Cycle 2 has begun! It will end in 24 hours. PMs will be out shortly. 

Vote Count
>Ecth (4): Megasif, Roadwalker, Stick, Winter 
>Flash (4): Orlok, PK, Eternum, Bard 
>Stick (3): Arinian, Drake, Flash
>Stink (2): Jondesu, Elithanathile 
>Jondesu (1): Elenion

Player List
1. Elithanathile - Sebas
2. Drake - Aaliyah New Recruit
3. Mage - Damond
4. Eternum - Albion Kerenas
5. Jebus - Teralarin
6. Flash - Johnny Quick New Recruit 
7. Elenion - Albert Vospar
8. Orlok - Highprince Locke Tekiel 
9. Megasif - Zirconidas
10. Winter Devotion - John
11. Roadwalker - Silver
12. Jondesu - Tzlim
13. Paranoid King - Spiff
14. Stick - Dan
15. Sami - Aleta Nebrask
16. Stink - Lazar
17. Arraenae - Malnar
18. Lopen - Revali
19. Darkness - Belegaer
20. Bard - Melinon
21. Ecthelion - Ceol and Vis
22. Yitzi - Brightlord Erethin
23. Sart - Ardent Sartal
24. Arinian - Alrin

Edited August 4, 2017 by Elbereth

[the winter system]

Well someone manipulated my vote. I voted on Rae. Lemme go check the rules for a tie, but I think if was a coin toss.

[Young Bard]

Vote Tally (rearranged from before) (assuming Flash's is correct at the time he posted it): 

Ecth (5) stink, roadrunner, megasif, stick, flash

Flash (5) PK, Eternum, Arranae, Orlok, Bard

Stick (2) Arinian, Drake

Jondesu (1) Elenion

Megasif (1) Jondesu

Roadwalker(1) Elithanathile

Rae (1) Winter

And after the Stonewards and Dustbringers:

Vote Count (changes bolded/strikethroughed):
>Ecth (4): Megasif, Roadwalker, Stick, Winter , Megasif, Stink
>Flash (4): Orlok, PK, Eternum, Bard, Arraenae
>Stick (3): Arinian, Drake, Flash
>Stink (2): Jondesu, Elithanathile, Arinian, Drake
>Jondesu (1): Elenion
>Megasif (0): Jondesu
>Roadwalker(0): Elithanathile
>Rae(0): Winter

Stoneward actions:

Winter: Rae ---> Ecth (could be villager or an elim - personally didn't find Ecth suspicious, but by the looks of things, plenty of other villagers did)
Jondesu: Megasif ---> Stink (I think they might have been following my instructions here, because Stink was never really seriously up for the lynch, and Mega had one vote on them)
Elithanathile: Roadwalker ---> Stink (Ditto to above)

Dustbringer actions:

Megasif: Ecth
Stink: Ecth
Arraenae: Flash
Arinian: Stink
Drake: Stink
 

3 Stonewards and 5 Dustbringers. That's a lot more than I was expecting. If I were to guess at distributions, I'd say that the Skybreakers probably have possibly 1 Dustbringer, and then another role that's either a Dustbringer or a Stoneward. I don't think El would give an Elsecaller role to an Elim - if they were suspicious enough to be lynched, then theres no point in delaying the inevitable by a cycle - it only slows down the inevitable. There's also no point to them having a Lightweaver, since there are no vig kill roles.

That's it for now - I'm off to an RL event, I'll be on tonight to defend my vote swaps and discuss the previous cycle, and my reads on it in greater depth.

[Paranoid King]

Hmm. I had this great rap Spiff prepared to rally his troops, but it somehow doesn't seem appropriate now.

Allright. give me a second to think about my vote.

Hmm. Sami. Posted lack of suspicion about Ecthelion, but didn't do anything about it. As an eliminator, I've found it's a lot easier to claim someone's village than that they're an elim.

[TheMightyLopen]

Sorry about not voting. I really was going to, but I fell asleep... >>

Anyways, I'm disappointed that Flash wasn't evil, but hopefully we can learn something from his lynch. Not sure what to make of Drake being the first kill. Oh, thank you Bard for putting all of that together. I'll have a look at everything tomorrow, after I've slept.

[Elithanathile]

Wait, when did I vote on Roadwalker? The only person I ever put a vote on was STINK, so there was no vote movement there. I was wondering about that last cycle as well when I saw your vote tally, but thought it was just an error or that was STINK's character name. So yeah, I only ever voted on STINK, nobody else.

And for suspicions, I have my suspicions about Ecth, slightly, Winter, somewhat, and then Orlok. It was pointed out to me in a PM that last cycle, Orlok's first big post had some stuff about vote manipulation in it before it was edited and that stuff was taken out. Possibly not wanting to bring up the topic if he had the role. Combined with the vote tally being mixed around, it's possible that Orlok or another vote manip messed with them and made sure that Flash was killed instead of Ecth.

So after that, I now have about equal suspicion on Orlok and Ecth.

Willing to put a vote on Orlok for now though, since I feel cautious enough.

And @Paranoid King, is there any chance we could hear this awesome rap of yours, even if things have changed? It would still be incredibly amusing to think of the situation. And also you asked me to ask about it so you had an excuse to actually post it after you took the time to make it. You're welcome. (Insert obligatory Moana song here.)

[Paranoid King]

1 hour ago, Elithanathile said:

And @Paranoid King, is there any chance we could hear this awesome rap of yours, even if things have changed? It would still be incredibly amusing to think of the situation. And also you asked me to ask about it so you had an excuse to actually post it after you took the time to make it.

Well, you insisted.

Spiff stood atop the hastily erected stage. His troops were looking somewhat down about not killing the people they wanted to kill. What a shame. But he knew what would cheer them up!

*Ahem*

"Now listen up people, millin' around here on the plains
We don't have that much cohesion, because I got all the brains.
So just listen to my commands, and you'll soon be going right,
We'll have this problem ELIMINATED afore the end of night"

(Lens flare)

"You came here 'xpecting ease and a life that's filled with style,
but now there's a brightness dead, so heap your problems on the pile.
Take your spear, take your sword, bond your spren just like the rest
It's time to take some action, to kick up the chasmfiend nest."

"Cause we're gonna kill some badguys, yeah yeah yeah,
They're gonna cry cry cry cry, waa waa waa.
(I'll admit I hadn't really perfected this part yet, but I make up for it with my next verse.)
We're gonna show them who the knights radiant really are!"

(Guitar solo) In case you're wondering, it sounds something like NYEaaaaw! deedle deedle deedle deedle blurblleedeedleedeedeeYOW!

"You've got a awesome captain to lead you to viictoryy!
You've got a sword in hand and you all belong to mee!
Before the time has come, you'll all know that Spiff's the best!
Because I guess you had two people die, but I still get up and jest."

(Sad trombone)

"You know I got some haters who think they'd be better in command,
But they really don't know how to give out an inane demand,
So you'll see that with a captain that does everything wrong,
You'll have so much much confidence you'll break out in song."

"Cause we're gonna kill some badguys, yeah yeah yeah,
They're gonna cry cry cry cry, waa waa waa.
We're gonna hit them so hard that they will fly into a star
We're gonna show them who the knights radiant really are!"

"We're gonna shoooow them!
Yeeeaaaaaeaeooooooooeooeoo!
Who the knights radiant really are!"

(Mike drop)

Thank you, I'll be handing out autographs after the performance.

[Elithanathile]

Well then.

#SpiffForPresident1AD (After Desolation)

You've got my vote!

[Elenion]

Well, work went long, but I don't think I would have made it back in time for turnover anyway; it's right as I get off my closing shift at work. Had I gotten back in time things might have turned out differently for the lynch.

It appears to me, assuming no GM error, there is quite a bit of vote manip in the game. That translates to the elims likely having control over some of it, and the elims of all players would want to mess with the votes surrounding the central bandwagons. I think they were the ones who shifted the votes to Flash instead of Ecth. That said, I think it's a framing tactic. Remember LG25: the eliminators purposely redirected lynches from one villager to another to kill the second villager and cast suspicion on the first. This doesn't make me flip my read on Ecth to good, but it does move it back into neutral territory.

[Orlok Tsubodai]

45 minutes ago, Elithanathile said:

Wait, when did I vote on Roadwalker? The only person I ever put a vote on was STINK, so there was no vote movement there. I was wondering about that last cycle as well when I saw your vote tally, but thought it was just an error or that was STINK's character name. So yeah, I only ever voted on STINK, nobody else.

And for suspicions, I have my suspicions about Ecth, slightly, Winter, somewhat, and then Orlok. It was pointed out to me in a PM that last cycle, Orlok's first big post had some stuff about vote manipulation in it before it was edited and that stuff was taken out. Possibly not wanting to bring up the topic if he had the role. Combined with the vote tally being mixed around, it's possible that Orlok or another vote manip messed with them and made sure that Flash was killed instead of Ecth.

So after that, I now have about equal suspicion on Orlok and Ecth.

Willing to put a vote on Orlok for now though, since I feel cautious enough.

And @Paranoid King, is there any chance we could hear this awesome rap of yours, even if things have changed? It would still be incredibly amusing to think of the situation. And also you asked me to ask about it so you had an excuse to actually post it after you took the time to make it. You're welcome. (Insert obligatory Moana song here.)

@Elithanathile, who said that? I certainly didn't edit anything about vote manipulation out of any of my posts.

I've been quite honest about why I want to keep Ecthelion alive. I had a streak of very early deaths last year, and very much didn't enjoy it. I know Ecthelion has been getting annoyed about it, and didn't want the same thing to happen to him.

Edit:

I'm not sure that there's been as much vote manipulation as everyone is speculating. This is the vote count as of the end of the last cycle:

Ecthelion (5): Stink, Flash, Megasif, Roadwalker, Stick 
Flash (4): Orlok, PK, Eternum, Bard
Stink (2): Jondesu, Elithanathile 
Stick (2): Arinian, Drake
Rae (1): Winter 
Jondesu (1): Elenion

This is the vote count at the beginning of this cycle: 

Ecthelion (4): Megasif, Roadwalker, Stick, Winter 
Flash (4): Orlok, PK, Eternum, Bard 
Stick (3): Arinian, Drake, Flash
Stink (2): Jondesu, Elithanathile 
Jondesu (1): Elenion

It looks like Stink was soothed off Ecthelion, Flash rioted from Ecthelion to Stick, and Winter rioted from Rae to Ecthelion. A soother and two rioters, @The Young Bard, not three rioters and five soothers.

 

Edited August 4, 2017 by Orlok Tsubodai

[Elenion]

Just read the thread of last Hour to current.

@Orlok Tsubodai  In LG36 I think I remember one of the elims making a slip because they didn't have access to a village role PM to see what they looked like. Or maybe it was just something mentioned between Ecth and I. Anyway, that's what I was feeling might have happened in Ecth's case, but now the LG25 connections have me reconsidering that read.