Long Game 35: L35 Miserables

[TheMightyLopen]

Okay, first thing I want to comment on - Please don't kill me first Cycle eliminators. I was the first kill in the 2 games Hael linked on page 1.

Wow, Orlok roleclaiming in the thread on Day 1. This is crazy stuff.

Randuir is wishing people good luck getting me and Wilson lynched? Suspicious...

Well, that's all of my comments. Pretty weak, right? Well I was talking to Stink in a PM during my read through and I did only skim some posts because I can't seem to focus too great right now.

I am mildly suspicious of Stick for her post about not getting the suspicion on Stink and Straw. Maybe she knows they're both villagers because she's an eliminator. Like, the line "I'm not really getting these votes?" just seemed off to me. I don't know if it's lynch worthy though.

I wouldn't mind lynching Joe because people have said they trust him for his first post.  (< that is a joke, btw)

Anyways, after those extra comments, I think I'll just lurk for now. I've got a cold, so my head feels kinda blah.

[Stick.]

@TheMightyLopen I think I'd try to get one of them lynched were I an elim

[TheMightyLopen]

Just now, _Stick_ said:

@TheMightyLopen I think I'd try to get one of them lynched were I an elim

Like, you'd add that one of them had actually done something slightly suspicious at the end of your post to get them lynched or something like that? 

[Straw]

@TheMightyLopen Who do you suspect most? Me? STINK? Someone else?

[Stick.]

1 minute ago, TheMightyLopen said:

Like, you'd add that one of them had actually done something slightly suspicious at the end of your post to get them lynched or something like that? 

Was ninjad by asterion and didn't want to double post, so yeah 

[STINK]

Alright I gotta go to bed now everyone, so have fun being sad about the lack of PMs

[TheMightyLopen]

8 minutes ago, Straw said:

@TheMightyLopen Who do you suspect most? Me? STINK? Someone else?

Well my post said Stick. You and Stink seem okay I guess. You seem more village than Stink, since I feel like you would more likely PM everyone as a villager than Stink would(not that Stink wouldn't do that as a villager, but it just seems like it's more of a village tell for you somehow).

7 minutes ago, _Stick_ said:

Was ninjad by asterion and didn't want to double post, so yeah 

Haha, okay. Has anyone else caught your eye? Good or bad?

Edit: Also, I just said I was gonna lurk, then 2 people mention me...

Edited June 25, 2017 by TheMightyLopen

[Stick.]

3 minutes ago, TheMightyLopen said:

Haha, okay. Has anyone else caught your eye? Good or bad?

at this point, not really. Refer to our group PM for more info on the subject 

[STINK]

12 minutes ago, TheMightyLopen said:

Well my post said Stick. You and Stink seem okay I guess. You seem more village than Stink, since I feel like you would more likely PM everyone as a villager than Stink would(not that Stink wouldn't do that as a villager, but it just seems like it's more of a village tell for you somehow).

Haha, okay. Has anyone else caught your eye? Good or bad?

Edit: Also, I just said I was gonna lurk, then 2 people mention me...

lmao cant wait for Straw to be an elim

[Steeldancer]

Me? I honestly have no idea what is going on. Today was hectic. So between work, Wonder Woman, Planet Earth 2, homework, and I, Robot, I haven't really been paying that much attention. So yeah. 

[Orlok Tsubodai]

Before I go to sleep, @Cosette/Convict's Ward, if you fancy PMing me this day turn, it would probably prove rather helpful? I don't think there's any risk to you arising from doing so, and it makes sense for us to get contact established sooner rather than later?

Edited June 25, 2017 by OrlokTsubodai
Clarifying the role

[xxGaea]

I apologize for taking so long to post. I was preoccupied since the game started, and this is the first time I have actually had time to sit down and read everything that has been said thus far.

I don't really have much to add analysis-wise as of yet, because I don't really have enough to go off of. This is only my second game, and I'm not accustomed to sharing my personal thoughts publicly. 

I am slightly suspicious of both STINK and Straw, for reasons that have already been discussed in-thread. 

I am slightly suspicious of STINK because of their pms asking for roles while claiming to be neutral and willing to give 'advice' to those who claim. While it could be truthful, it is also quite likely a ploy to find out possible elim targets--wanting to find who is neutral and who is good so as to not waste any kills. Another thing, I think they could potentially be the Parole Officer, for their targeting of Straw. Honestly, this game is going to be highly interesting with the Parole Officer in play. It is going to be somewhat difficult to determine if someone's reason for voting for someone is strictly due to real suspicion, or due to being their win condition.

As for Straw, the personal pm and group pm does seem overkill. I am hesitant to participate in group pms because I am a suspicious person by nature, and group pms have a higher chance of having evil-doers in them than personal pms do.  My suspicion of them is not helped by the sense that they just copy pasted their text content for personal to group pms, lol. It just seems like they are grasping for as many pm conversations as possible, and that just doesn't really sit right with me. There is a lot of a gut-read on this, I will be honest.

@Shqueeves, I would be curious to see more comments from you. I don't necessarily think you are suspicious per-say..However, your lack of really saying anything right now does seem odd to me. From what I have gathered, you have only commented on liking Straw's graph due to 'friendliness', and it makes me lean more suspicion towards you. 

I am getting a neutral or village vibe from Joe because it does seem unlikely that an elim would try to convince neutrals to side with the village. The tone sounds village, but that is easy enough to fake in an attempt to trick people into trusting him. That being said, I'm not really all that suspicious of him, because the cons definitely seem to outweigh the pros of bringing up the ability for the neutrals roles to be able to win together. It just seems a lot more likely for him to be village or neutral, at this point. I am curious to see what else he have to say on the matter.

I am unsure of Orlock. His claiming of being the Pauper Noble is definitely an interesting development, but it could easily be a ploy to trick us into believing we don't have a threat from him. I could definitely see an elim claiming to be Pauper Noble, but at the same time, it could refuted by the Convict's Ward and the Thieve's Child. I can't tell if the risks would outweigh the possible benefits, but those on my thoughts on that matter.

Randuir seems to offer good advice to look out for about the Parole Officer, but it doesn't really give me any feelings either way for his possible alignment. Pointing out the role that will be trying to get a mislynch is an easy way to appear helpful without necessarily being helpful. I'm not really getting elim-vibes from him, though.

I am uncertain on how I feel towards Elbereth at this current time, because their post seems helpful, but at the same time I am just unsure on if it actually is. The advice is good, but at the same time it seems like a wasteful plan from what further comments have been said by others. This is my first game with allomantic powers, so I am not all that clear on good strategies for them, so I am mainly going by what I am reading from others on this particular matter.

I am also uncertain about BrightnessRadiant, because she is offering her thoughts on the players so far, but there's isn't all that much information about her thoughts. While some of her comments are helpful, others just seem like covers that don't provide any real insight. Then again, I can understand that since this is the first day cycle and there isn't really much to go on, lol.

I am slightly suspicious of Drake Marshall, because their reasoning for their suspicion on Joe seems...odd. Their 'irrational sense of paranoia' is an interesting reason to give, but at the same time, we do have a role that's goal is to lynch a specific player. It seems possible that Drake could potentially be the Parole Officer, and Joe being his target.

I don't think little wilson is a elim because of her post on the neutral roles and how one should be careful with them. It just doesn't seem likely for an elim to push neutrals against  publicly claiming their role, since it would help the elim team narrow down who they need to target.

Okay, that is all the thoughts I have for this moment. Wow, I didn't expect to write so much, lol. I hope this proves helpful to some? I dunno, like I said, this is my first attempt at verbalizing my internal thoughts about players.

[DrakeMarshall]

I'm not so sure about any good discussion right now but I can do an RP.

Lukas helped a fellow Amis de l'ABC move a table to fortify the barricade. He was already sweating profusely, perhaps a product of the heavy coat he stubbornly wore despite the hot noonday sun. The occasional gunshot sounded around them, but the fight was calming. The constabulary seemed to be regrouping and retreating, for now.

The rulers of Elendel would have to listen to them, eventually. He remembered the words of their leader. Though we may not all survive here, there are things that never die. If this uprising was crushed, another, even more far-reaching one would take its place. Until things changed.

Still, better to live to see things change, if it was all the same. And that meant getting rid of the spies that were rumored to be sabotaging the barricade.

[BrightnessRadiant]

@Crimsn-Wolf yeah guilty (about not being super helpful yet)...I've been crazy busy irl today and I haven't got to make another post about game thoughts etc. yet...but I already made one huge analysis post today. Who do you think I am... Randuir? haha  

I also want to get some RP up in a bit so be prepared for another large post later 

Edited June 25, 2017 by BrightnessRadiant

[Arrae]

Julie spotted a man moving a table towards the barricade. A fellow supporter of the Cause! She ran over and helped him lift the other end of the table. 

"Hi, I'm Julie Aurette, from New Seran. I was originally here to petition the governor to lower the tariffs on imports from New Seran, but then I found out about this and, well, couldn't resist joining. What's your name?"

@Drake Marshall

[Jondesu]

3 hours ago, STINK said:

Making a single PM to each individual in the game isn't that many PMs. Everyone ends up doing it at some point. It's the arbitary group PMs and all this slander against me that is suspicious.

I don't. I'm terrible about PMs. I have a ton this game though, none of which I started, although I'm not being very active in any of them. Took an unexpected nap on the couch today instead.

@Crimsn-Wolf, just a note particularly on what you said about Wilson: that's exactly something she might do as an Elim. Someone's going to suggest it, but if an Elim is the one, they can gain trust. It's not specifically something she's more likely to do as an Elim, so it doesn't indicate anything alignment-wise, but it also shouldn't really move her into your village list. I know because I've done that as an Elim, and I've seen her do it as an Elim I'm pretty sure. Beware the trap of good advice. 

Oh, and @STINK and @Straw, do we need to send you to your rooms? I doubt either of you is an Elim, or genuinely believes the other is, through thanks for generating some discussion.

Speaking of discussion, one of those PMs I had was with Orlok, and combined with what was broken down here in the thread (was it Wilson who explained it really well? Lopen? Can't remember and can't be bothered to go check right now), I think it's likely he's telling the truth, and that it probably was a good decision. It's a very rare situation, though, and I'm worried we'll see a trend of roleclaims following it, because that doesn't work out well for the village. Everyone else keep your roles to yourself.

I wish I had a vote ready now, but between the really confusing posts, lack of info, and just typical D1 stuff (plus my reduced focus on the games) I don't have anyone I'd vote on right now. We'll see if that changes.

[Yitzi2]

4 hours ago, Araris Valerian said:

I'm going to vote on Straw for blatant proliferation of PMs.

Aren't a lot of PMs good for the village?  Yes, it might be annoying, but the only way it'd be an elim-ness indicator is as a disguise, and that's not a particularly strong argument.

Now, if his posts were completely content-less, that might be different, but at least as far as the PM's I've gotten go, the one from Straw was potentially useful (he asked for my thoughts about the game, though at this point there is nothing I am inclined to say in PM with someone who hasn't proven himself that I am not willing to say in-thread), but the only apparently content-less PM I recieved was from STINK.

[Arrae]

5 minutes ago, Yitzi2 said:

Aren't a lot of PMs good for the village?  Yes, it might be annoying, but the only way it'd be an elim-ness indicator is as a disguise, and that's not a particularly strong argument.

Now, if his posts were completely content-less, that might be different, but at least as far as the PM's I've gotten go, the one from Straw was potentially useful (he asked for my thoughts about the game, though at this point there is nothing I am inclined to say in PM with someone who hasn't proven himself that I am not willing to say in-thread), but the only apparently content-less PM I recieved was from STINK.

Elims can PM too. Sometimes, they're quite good at it. For example, in LG33, Alv, an elim, used PMs to convince Wilson that he was village.

[little wilson]

12 minutes ago, Yitzi2 said:

Now, if his posts were completely content-less, that might be different, but at least as far as the PM's I've gotten go, the one from Straw was potentially useful (he asked for my thoughts about the game, though at this point there is nothing I am inclined to say in PM with someone who hasn't proven himself that I am not willing to say in-thread), but the only apparently content-less PM I recieved was from STINK.

As far as I know, all of Straw's PM's contained a single question: "What are your thoughts on the game?" How hard do you actually think that is to come up with as an eliminator? It makes you appear useful and village without doing a single dang thing. It takes literally no thought. And his group PMs....my word, the group PMs are worse than pointless. He went down the player list, separating into groups of 3, saying that it was for group discussion. Yeah, because lots of people would rather use PMs with people they don't have repertoire with that the thread or PMs that they started with people they actually trust/choose to talk to. I think not. But again, it makes him seem useful, and it also could potentially provide him with a lot of information.

In my one-on-one PM with Straw, I made some comments about the game, and then asked his thoughts. He responded less than a minute later, saying nothing about the comments that I had (I expected a villager to say something about them, given that what I'd said is generally controversial from most village perspectives) and just saying that he didn't have any thoughts. So he's trying to get information but not give any. Neither of those - the lack of response to what I'd said or the lack of thoughts - are particularly village-y to me.

Stink may be saying very little, but he's at least shared a few of his thoughts in the thread and he's discussed some game-related things in my PM with him. I've got a far better and clearer read on Stink (read: hardcore neutral) than I do on Straw, who is sitting passively by and letting everyone else share thoughts, while he shares nothing except that he wants Stink lynched. Because Stink is also PMing and dislikes the pointless group PMs. Right. Because that makes sense.

I find your defense of Straw suspicious, Yitzi.

[DrakeMarshall]

4 minutes ago, Arraenae said:

Elims can PM too. Sometimes, they're quite good at it. For example, in LG33, Alv, an elim, used PMs to convince Wilson that he was village.

Sometimes, elims can use PMs even better then villagers can.

I don't really believe the straw/STINK thing is alignment indicative.

Anyways.

 

 

"Hi, I'm Julie Aurette, from New Seran. I was originally here to petition the governor to lower the tariffs on imports from New Seran, but then I found out about this and, well, couldn't resist joining. What's your name?"

Lukas moved to one side of the table, grateful for the help. "Hello, Julie," he spoke with a faint northern accent. "My name is Lukas, Lukas Fehrweight. And by the Survivor, that's quite the coincidence! You might be able to notice I'm not from around here either. I came here to negotiate a trade agreement for a company based in Urteau... The sort of agreement that bypass the tariffs, if you see what I'm getting at..." at this Lukas had the decency to look slightly sheepish. "But that all went south some time ago, and I've cast my lot with the cause."

@Arraenae

[BrightnessRadiant]

So I actually lost my post again by trying to hit copy but instead hitting paste  this day *shakes head

Here's some game thoughts as promised (I hope they're helpful):

Roles:

The allomantic roles look pretty standard and I know some of this has probably already been covered, but I'd just like to give my thoughts on them and try to make sure everything's covered especially for the newer players 

1. Tineyes- as I said before maybe they can just burn tin every other night to avoid wasting too many vials if they overlap each other (unless you think we'll really need pms on a certain cycle)

2. Soothers and Rioters- probably don't even need to use their powers unless there's a really critical lynch or you really want to save someone you trust. Honestly, these roles tend to draw a lot of suspicion even when village so just use discretion. You could try and frame someone by canceling a vote made on them (although if you get caught you'd probably get lynched for it lol)or you could try and get someone trusted by moving/canceling their vote. I feel like any sneakiness done by these roles would probably put you in danger though hehe 

3. Smokers- would make the perfect "bodyguards" for the more important allomantic roles like the coinshot and tineyes. I would advise trying to find and protect them...not sure how to do that though especially since I really don't think the coinshot should be role claiming to anyone if possible. But you could just try to figure it out I guess and find them if you can. Also, you could really come in handy during a critical lynch by making sure your own vote can't be canceled or moved.

4. Seeker- this role would be helpful for narrowing down who has what roles so we can try and figure out what abilities the elims might have been given. You probably shouldn't share your role or information unless you think you might die or you find a relatively cleared villager. You should probably try and scan your biggest suspicions first, but remember if a player didn't "burn" any metals they may have just been hidden by the smoker. You might want to scan them twice.

5. Thug- I don't have much advice for the thugs, other than if you're village you should still defend yourself from the lynch like normal(instead of not caring if you get lynched because you won't die) so you can conserve your vials and force the elims to waste several hits on you. Plus, this will help the village to avoid wasting our lynch.

Neutral/Other roles:

1. The pauper noble- (possibly orlok ) is probably getting targeted by the convict's ward soon, so he probably won't have much of a chance to use his regular role before he becomes neutral (I hope you still side with us!)

2. The Scavenger- don't forget to send in your actions, and try not to die lol...please  (the coinshot could use those vials)

3. The Ringleader- Umm...choose wisely lol (we can really benefit or hurt from your extra kills)

4. The Parole Officer- give the guy a break will ya  (seriously though...I'm watching for you trying to get rid of a player lol)

5. Escaped Convict- please join our mighty cause! We would love your help and extra protection of the other neutrals if they'll help too!

6. Convict's Ward- ummm please scan orlok this cycle so he can have extra protection from your papa lol (and you can all help us and we can protect you from the mean old parole officer haha)

7. Theif's child- protect orlok next cycle I guess lol...so he can be confirmed? And you can steal him from the Convict's Ward lolol (hey I'm biased towards the Eponine role ok )

8. Thief- if you side with us we could probably spare a few vials (yes that is a bribe...did it work lol) 

I guess that's all for now...gonna do some RP now. I'll edit it in if no one posts after me for a while 

Edited June 25, 2017 by BrightnessRadiant
Grammar and formatting plus I changed a few emojis lol

[Yitzi2]

7 hours ago, little wilson said:

As far as I know, all of Straw's PM's contained a single question: "What are your thoughts on the game?" How hard do you actually think that is to come up with as an eliminator? It makes you appear useful and village without doing a single dang thing. It takes literally no thought. And his group PMs....my word, the group PMs are worse than pointless. He went down the player list, separating into groups of 3, saying that it was for group discussion. Yeah, because lots of people would rather use PMs with people they don't have repertoire with that the thread or PMs that they started with people they actually trust/choose to talk to. I think not. But again, it makes him seem useful, and it also could potentially provide him with a lot of information.

In my one-on-one PM with Straw, I made some comments about the game, and then asked his thoughts. He responded less than a minute later, saying nothing about the comments that I had (I expected a villager to say something about them, given that what I'd said is generally controversial from most village perspectives) and just saying that he didn't have any thoughts. So he's trying to get information but not give any. Neither of those - the lack of response to what I'd said or the lack of thoughts - are particularly village-y to me.

Stink may be saying very little, but he's at least shared a few of his thoughts in the thread and he's discussed some game-related things in my PM with him. I've got a far better and clearer read on Stink (read: hardcore neutral) than I do on Straw, who is sitting passively by and letting everyone else share thoughts, while he shares nothing except that he wants Stink lynched. Because Stink is also PMing and dislikes the pointless group PMs. Right. Because that makes sense.

I find your defense of Straw suspicious, Yitzi.

It doesn't take much effort as an eliminator (or as a villager), but it can lead to an increased chance of elims slipping up (something I have personally found useful:  My opening PM to Lopen in QF23 was even weaker (I only sent it because that game had a 1-PM-started-per-day rule), and Lopen slipping up in that PM ended up turning the game from elim domination to something that went right down to the wire).  I didn't see that separation into groups of 3; did I miss it?  (I wasn't able to get on for the first few hours of the game, so in going through the rest I'm sure I missed some things), and obviously didn't see anything from your one-on-one.

Edited June 25, 2017 by Yitzi2

[Amanuensis]

Just chiming in to say I'm still drunk and haven't read the thread or the rules, so at this point it might be best to disregard me until D2

[DeTess]

Just now, Amanuensis said:

Just chiming in to say I'm still drunk and haven't read the thread or the rules, so at this point it might be best to disregard me until D2

remember to drink lots of water, Aman.

[Amanuensis]

Just now, randuir said:

remember to drink lots of water, Aman.

Probably a good idea