Long Game 35: L35 Miserables

[Straw]

Crap, I'm really bad at analysis. Well, here's my attempt at it:

Randiur: Pretty typical behavior.

PK: Flavor, not really useful.

@STINK: Put a vote on me without explanation .

[Haelbarde]

4 minutes ago, OrlokTsubodai said:

I couldn't find it, and it's pretty important to know, given the number of neutral roles. @Haelbarde, do the eliminators need to outnumber all villagers, or kill them all?@Jondesu

I meant to clarify that, as I only noticed I hadn't spelt that out till this morning. For the moment I've decided to go with outnumber or equal the village. It's something I need to review when I'm not so tired though.

[DeTess]

Btw, for the D1 lynch, I think we should be trying to be more critical of who to lynch than we generally tend to be for D1. The reason being that I expect the parole officer to use the D1 lynch to get the escaped convict without having to make a very strong case for why we should lynch that person. Depending on who the convict is, this might not be a possible tactic (good luck trying to get Wilson or Lopen lynched D1 without a very solid case, for example), but I do think we need to be aware that there is a player out there who has an interest in getting us to mislynch a particular person.

[Amanuensis]

Hey everyone, I'm awake now but I've got things to do, so I just wanted to let you all know that it's best not to expect me posting for about 24 hours. I'm sure I'll be on sooner but that seems like the safest bet.

[Shqueeves]

18 minutes ago, OrlokTsubodai said:

@Shqueeves, I haven't seen you before - are you a new player? I'm not sure whether to put your appreciation of the graph down to friendliness or trying to get Straw on side.

I'm a relatively new player (it's my second game). My appreciation of the graph was out of friendliness. 

[Orlok Tsubodai]

2 minutes ago, Shqueeves said:

I'm a relatively new player (it's my second game). My appreciation of the graph was out of friendliness. 

Welcome to SE, then! I look forward to playing with you.

[Elbereth]

Right. Writing this only having seen the first five comments, because that’s how much happened before I got on my flight. Responses are as follows. 

Joe: Agreed on Neutrals. At the very least, please don’t just sit there and scan/thieve/whatever. Be involved in the game, in discussion. Talk in thread. It’s much more interesting for everyone that way. Your win conditions depend mostly on each other, but there’s absolutely nothing to say you can’t interact with villagers/eliminators. Neutral players when played interestingly are an excellent wild card and can have a lot of fun playing the game. It’s far less fun to just not talk and do your thing with a minimum. So please don’t. That’s boring.

Also, Joe’s post makes me trust him a bit. 

Randuir: 
First off, you’re assuming there’s only one Tineye. There very well may be multiple (particularly with a significant number of players like we have), so it could be possible to have tin every cycle if we could coordinate it. I can’t really think of a way to do so, though.
Secondly, saving tin isn’t really helpful unless the tineyes survive. Which is a risky thing to bet on, honestly. I’d agree that they’re helpful endgame, but we have to balance that against the risk of them all dying by then. 

Hmm. Thoughts on this proposition - base it on your level of experience? Older players use tin in the first few cycles. Midlevel players in the middle, and newer players wait until the end to use their tin. (I’m thinking maybe cycles 1-3, 4-6, and 7-9, specifically.) That roughly correlates with survival expectancies, and divides things alright depending on the layout of the tineyes? Eliminators could change that, sure, by killing in a different order. I’d ask them not to? PMs don’t really benefit the village any more than they benefit you, so long as you use them. And they make the game excellent fun.
Thoughts? 

I also don’t know how many charges players have, though that may have been in the rules and I missed it (I’m going off memory since I don’t have them saved >>). So that might affect things. 

Another thought about soothers/rioters more specifically, it’s a lovely way to prove yourself. If you’re going to claim (to which there are positives and negatives; ask Alv about negatives and Wilson about positivies :P), prove it. Hm. Harder to keep elim vote manip pinned down than usual, I suppose, because of limited charges. That’s a bit annoying. >>

I can’t click the link to the Thief youtube video but please tell me it’s a Swiper No Swiping clip? 

Right. That’s all I have for now. Very slight suspicion on Randuir for tone of the Tineye advice. The rest is neutral to me. I doubt he’d slip up with something like that, but it’s a thought? 

Oh. Just a general note because it’s probably worth saying - that rule about adding people to group PMs is not just for this game. That applies to every game, and please don’t.

 

Going to a play (which my mother won't tell me the name of...), but will probably be able to post and PM in a few hours.

[STINK]

Oh my, the super long posts have already started

[Jondesu]

1 hour ago, OrlokTsubodai said:

@Jondesu, similarly, thoughts beyond saying you'll analyse?

Nope. Seriously, though, I just don't have anything to really contribute yet. Analysis usually comes after there's not only been more posts, but also a lynch or a kill, though I'll try to put in a vote since I know that's usually important.

I find your decision to claim as the Pauper Noble...odd. Generally I think roleclaims are a bad idea anyway, but neutral roles sometimes make sense. You're not neutral if you're telling the truth, though, at least not yet, and that's just always going to make you a likely target.

[Stick.]

I think Rand's post is non-alignment indicative, his first posts pretty much always tend to discuss roles and things, at least, it's what I've noticed in the games I've played with him. Straw's behaviour seems pretty similar to how it was in LG33 [he was a villager], but I'd say this is NAI as well, because he acted pretty much the same way in a game where we were elim teammates. Joe's only post gives a village vibe, as others have said.

1 hour ago, Elbereth said:

I also don’t know how many charges players have, though that may have been in the rules and I missed it (I’m going off memory since I don’t have them saved >>). So that might affect things. 

It's random, iirc.

1 hour ago, Elbereth said:

I can’t click the link to the Thief youtube video but please tell me it’s a Swiper No Swiping clip?

Yes. Yes, it is.

edit: I'd somehow missed Orlok's role claim. I see victory for the Convict's Ward heh. All they have to do now is to scan Orlok, yes? 

Edited June 24, 2017 by _Stick_

[DeTess]

1 hour ago, Elbereth said:

First off, you’re assuming there’s only one Tineye. There very well may be multiple (particularly with a significant number of players like we have), so it could be possible to have tin every cycle if we could coordinate it. I can’t really think of a way to do so, though.
Secondly, saving tin isn’t really helpful unless the tineyes survive. Which is a risky thing to bet on, honestly. I’d agree that they’re helpful endgame, but we have to balance that against the risk of them all dying by then. 

I agree that some good judgement on the part of the tin-eyes is required, but I also don't think that you should burn through all your tin at the beginning, just because you might die within the first couple of cycles.

You are right that there might be multiple tin-eyes, but at this point all I know is that Hael said that not everyone would have a role, so how many allomancers are out there is anyone's guess at this point. in a couple of cycles it might be possible to make a better guess.

Quote

Hmm. Thoughts on this proposition - base it on your level of experience? Older players use tin in the first few cycles. Midlevel players in the middle, and newer players wait until the end to use their tin. (I’m thinking maybe cycles 1-3, 4-6, and 7-9, specifically.) That roughly correlates with survival expectancies, and divides things alright depending on the layout of the tineyes? Eliminators could change that, sure, by killing in a different order. I’d ask them not to? PMs don’t really benefit the village any more than they benefit you, so long as you use them. And they make the game excellent fun.
Thoughts? 

It's an interesting way of dividing it, but it is dependent on the opposite assumption to the one I made: that there are multiple tineyes (and that they are divided over multiple experience groups). If all tin-eyes are newer players, with this system we'd only have PM's at the beginning. It's the same deal if they fall in another experience category.

Quote

I also don’t know how many charges players have, though that may have been in the rules and I missed it (I’m going off memory since I don’t have them saved >>). So that might affect things. 

Hael said that he'd generate these randomly, as stick mentioned above. ( @Haelbarde, can you tell between which numbers this random number is picked. ie: what are the minimum and maximum number of charges possible?)

Quote

I can’t click the link to the Thief youtube video but please tell me it’s a Swiper No Swiping clip? 

Of course it is!

18 minutes ago, _Stick_ said:

I think Rand's post is non-alignment indicative, his first posts pretty much always tend to discuss roles and things, at least, it's what I've noticed in the games I've played with him. 

Yep, pretty much. I write those posts as much for myself to get my head around the rules, as I write them for the thread to get my opinions on how to best utilize various roles out there. The last two times I made posts like that, I'd written most of it before even knowing my role (in this case, I'd just written the allomantic part by the time my role-PM arrived).

18 minutes ago, _Stick_ said:

edit: I'd somehow missed Orlok's role claim. I see victory for the Convict's Ward heh. All they have to do now is to scan Orlok, yes? 

No, they then also need to survive the game.

Edited June 24, 2017 by randuir

[BrightnessRadiant]

yes! As a lot of you know I've been helping my sister with her newborn recently, and have been rather sleep deprived. However, I just got like 7 hours of sleep and I actually feel like I can THINK now! So I'm finally awake and here to play lol. 

Let's see, I haven't made one of my "famous analysis posts"(as they've been called before) yet.  

@Haelbarde thanks for clarifying about PMs 

Does anyone else hate it terribly when most of your post gets deleted because you accidentally clicked on some notification at the top of your screen and then your page has to reload and you lost almost everything you typed and you want to just scream and throw your device out the window? That's an oddly specific description wouldn't you say? *goes to get tablet from where it landed outside (haha no, I didn't actually throw it, I just really hate losing my posts ) here we go again...

Joe- asks the neutrals to help the village (not particularly alignment indicative considering that any alignment could've posted this for different reasons:

1. A villager posts it actually wanting their help.

2. An elim posts it, cuz it's the "villager" thing to do.

3. A neutral posts it to hide their identity, while possibly wanting to encourage the other neutrals to aid the village, or not lol.)

Randuir- posts his usual prepared analysis tips for the various roles (not alignment indicative considering he seems to do this every game regardless of alignment since he probably writes them before the game even starts lol. Although I'm grateful that he does it cuz it lets me be slightly lazy. ) Later posts that we should be wary of the parole officer leading the lynch against his target. (Good thing to be aware of....but especially if you're the escaped convict. @randuir stolen any bread or candlesticks lately lol)

Straw- says he'll post graphs (normal behavior...only saw him do this as a villager in one game so far) Says he's bad at analysis and doesn't approve of STINK's vote on him lol.

Stink- doesn't want anyone to bother him (I've only played one game with him so far and he was evil lol. This seems to be the way he is though so not alignment indicative lol.) Votes for Straw to get him to share graphs lol.

Jon- says he will hone is analysis skills and not repeat other players this far  (no read)

Stick- busy irl/ posts while I'm posting now to give a couple of read a on other players (reading slightly village for this because it's really helpful when players share their reads)

Shqueeves- likes straw's graph and doesn't want to be killed while inactive lol (not alignment indicative but still feeling villagery for some reason lol) welcome to SE! 

Arraenae- posts to remind everyone about vote removing and when to do it or not to do it (never played with her before and the retracting votes in the wrong way is a normal thing for villagers and elims to hate lol)

PK- likes our barricade and tries to flag down the flash (no read ,except I like it when people try to get the other players involved)

Orlok- very lengthy post (can I really say anything lol). Says he thinks there's probably 4 or 5 elims. (I was thinking 5 might seem right, and I lean village for the peeps who bring up how many elims they think there are) Gives some thoughts on the players posts so far and tries to get more people involved. (Kinda leaning village for him...especially if he really is the pauper noble)

Aman- busy irl (lets lynch him now hahahaha  jk) Glad to have you back! @Amanuensis

Elbereth- gives analysis and some helpful tips for the game (leaning slightly village)

Ah, I think that about covers my reads on everyone...I will be back later with some other stuff like what I think the different roles should do etc. but for now I've got to eat my delicious chic fil a that's getting cold and then clean the house lol...see ya for now! 

 

Edited June 24, 2017 by BrightnessRadiant

[little wilson]

Personally, I got an LG26 vibe from Joe's post. Not really a vibe from Joe in that game, but from a number of comments made in that game. It's the last game we had with a large number of neutral roles, and Joe was evil. He'd remember those comments, and I can see him using similar arguments in a game with a lot of neutrals. This isn't to say I think he's evil. I don't. I read that post as non alignment-indicative, for Joe. He'd say something similar from any alignment. I do however have a minor gut read about El for townreading Joe based on it. I would think she would know better, were she village.

My other gut read right now is Jon, but I can't give reasons for it, because it is entirely gut. There's just....something with his post about this being a vanilla game, but I can't put my finger on what.

[StrikerEZ]

Okay, so I'm still fairly inexperienced, so I'm not quite sure how to strategize for this game, especially with all these roles.

As for the neutral roles, I honestly think their best bet, especially for those that need to find someone to win, is to try and set up as many PMs now and see if they can find their (potential) lover. I don't think it's a great idea to claim these roles in thread, because that just makes it easier for the elims to potentially take out two birds with one stone, if the Pauper Noble finds the Convict's Ward or vice versa. Orlok, I'd be very careful if I were you. Especially if you actually are the Pauper Noble. 

As for some of the Allomantic roles, I think we definitely need to make as many PMs as possible early on in the game, so we can at least start setting up alliances and people that we trust. Of course, this also runs the risk of the elims infiltrating tons of PMs and either spreading false info or attempting to gain the trust of villagers. I definitely don't think we need PMs every night, but this first night would be very important to start setting up trust.

I'm not sure who I'm suspicious of yet, though Jon always seems suspicious to me (I don't know why, just the way he posts). Besides him, I don't have any huge suspicions yet. I know we need to lynch someone this first day, even if it's just to get info (or maybe even get lucky and lynch an elim), but I'm gonna wait a bit and see some other suspicions from other players.

EDIT: I forgot to talk about the other Allomantic roles (and then lost all my progress on my edit )

For soothers/rioters that are villagers, I'd hold off on using your abilities to get rid of votes on yourself if your bing lynched, as that could just cast suspicion on yourself. I'd just try to use your posts to remove suspicion. If you have an important village-only role, then I think it'd be okay, as a last resort. As for neutral role she that might have this ability, the same would apply. And elims that have this role...they'd have the best chance of vote manipulating to make someone seem suspicious and make us mislynch them.

I'm not sure what to make of smokers/seekers. Seekers, depending on how many charges they have, should definitely try to find out as many peoples roles as possible. I'm not sure how to use that info though.

EDIT2: Thugs....

Thugs are fairly straightforward. Just try to survive, and potentially use the fact that you survived to cast suspicion on anyone you suspect as elim? Of course, if you're wrong, then you could get lynched for that. I don't know.

Edited June 24, 2017 by StrikerEZ

[Straw]

There, I finished making PMs with everyone!

[DrakeMarshall]

29 minutes ago, BrightnessRadiant said:

Does anyone else hate it terribly when most of your post gets deleted because you accidentally clicked on some notification at the top of your screen and then your page has to reload and you lost almost everything you typed and you want to just scream and throw your device out the window? That's an oddly specific description wouldn't you say? *goes to get tablet from where it landed outside (haha no, I didn't actually throw it, I just really hate losing my posts ) here we go again..

Trust me, if you didn't throw it, you're in better shape then most of us...

 

Anyways! I'll try to make an RP post (or a parody... ) but I don't really feel up to it right now.

 

Ummm I suppose I should share my reads on players or something. I've ready all y'alls posts (it's a busy first day, isn't it?).

I really don't have any real impressions except for an irrational surge of paranoia towards Joe.

Oh look, Wilson apparently has a bad gut read on Joe too. I can confidently say that her post played no role in forming my suspicions, because I hadn't seen Wilson's post at the time I had a bad vibe on Joe.

...and lots of people giving advice about roles. Personally, I think we all basically know the drill for allomantic roles.

But as for neutral ones... Well, I understand why Orlok would reveal his role. Claiming is a valid option for a survivor.

A known neutral role with a survive objective has an interesting position though... For example, Orlok is currently village aligned... But if, say, the escaped convict revealed... They are full neutral.

So... On one hand, if convict reveals, village isn't going to waste a lynch on a neutral. And elims aren't going to waste a kill on them either. That would constitute a basically unavoidable, flat-out loss for the parole officer.

Except... The elims can totally throw a wrench in all that. There are two obvious things they could do.

1. Claim a role like escaped convict. This is actually a very bad idea for the elims, because there's a counterclaim, and that eliminator ends up dying.

2. Contact the convict who claimed, and recruit them. They can threaten to kill the convict if the convict doesn't comply, because the convict win condition is to survive.

And there's another complication. Because the parole officer could counterclaim the convict as well.

And we don't really want to waste a lynch on either the parole officer or the escaped convict.

But if there's a chance that one of the convict claims are actually an eliminator, then we are forced to lynch one of the two.

Which actually gives the parole officer something of an advantage over the convict, if the convict chooses to claim. They can force one of the pair to be lynched.

 

This post was longer then I expected. Anyway, that's my $0.02.

[little wilson]

3 minutes ago, Drake Marshall said:

Oh look, Wilson apparently has a bad gut read on Joe too. I can confidently say that her post played no role in forming my suspicions, because I hadn't seen Wilson's post at the time I had a bad vibe on Joe.

I never said I have a bad gut read of Joe. I said I had no read, but that I had a bad gut read of El because she town-read Joe for that post.

Also, I really don't think other public claims would be a good idea. I can see why Orlok would, because he has virtually nothing to lose by doing so (other than his village alignment and role ability). He's village right now, but tonight, he'll switch to Neutral, because Cosette will target him, and they'll become lovers. Eponine knows who he is, and can protect him, and if the eliminators target him, Eponine will save him, and then he'll become lovers with both Cosette and Eponine and he'll have PMs with both as well. And if you're wondering why Orlok would sacrifice his role/alignment to be a Neutral Lynchpin of a Love Triangle, that's why: the constant communication. He wants the PMs. Additionally, Val Jean's one-shot protection of Cosette extends to Marius when they become lovers. Role-claiming was perhaps the smartest thing Orlok could've done. It makes him far less likely to be attacked which helps his soon-to-be new win con of survival, it helps Cosette get the first half of her win con (since once she's lovers, then she has to survive as well), and it gives him steady communication. Win-win for him.

I disagree that killing/lynching neutrals is pointless for either alignment. I think that's very contingent on how the neutral is playing. For example, if a neutral who only has to survive went all-in with the villagers, I could totally see the eliminators killing that neutral and making them lose. Send a lesson about playing in a way that's detrimental to your win con. It may not help the eliminators in a way that gets them closer to their win con, but it doesn't hurt it either. The same can be said for a neutral who goes all-in with the eliminators. Once the village finds out about that, do you really think they'd let the neutral live? Some of them might not care and would ignore the neutral, but not all of them would. Basically, neutral alignment is a very sensitive alignment, because your win con matters a ton to how you play it. You need to survive? Don't take sides, because the side you go against is more likely to want you dead. But if you don't take sides, one of the teams might not be happy about that, because they really want you to help them. And since you're not technically on their team, they don't really care what happens to you. Just so long as you help them and don't help their opponent. It's a very delicate line to walk. And it can be painful. I speak from experience and it was not a terribly pleasant experience for a time.

I would not recommend any neutral role claim publicly. You want to privately claim? Go right ahead, but you should probably be careful about that too. I regretted the one time I publicly claimed as a neutral. It's the only time I've regretted a public claim.

[Arrae]

"Rust their warnings, rust their lies! They will see the people rise!"

Julie whooped loudly. Her first real demonstration, and things were already happening. It wasn't quite what she'd imagined -- instead of being out on the front lines marching for equal representation of New Seran, she was barricading a city on behalf of the poor of Elendel. Still, she was demonstrating to air her grieviances to the government! This was so exciting.

"Go workers! Go democracy! Go New Seran!" she shouted.

Edit: Anyone want to RP with Julie? Don't worry, she's a kind person. Idealistic too. Wouldn't it be such a shame if someone took advantage of that...

Edited June 24, 2017 by Arraenae
Added stuff and finished a sentence

[Dalinar Kholin]

3 hours ago, Straw said:

@STINK: Put a vote on me without explanation .

Heh, there needs be no explanation where Stink is involved. I'm mainly posting to say that I'm here and watching. 

 

15 minutes ago, little wilson said:

I would not recommend any neutral role claim publicly. You want to privately claim? Go right ahead, but you should probably be careful about that too. I regretted the one time I publicly claimed as a neutral. It's the only time I've regretted a public claim.

It's in the interests of the village for nuetrals not to role claim. If the infiltraters don't know who is neutral versus good, they can't target us. What stops the neutrals from claiming in order to avoid being targeted by either side? 

[DeTess]

17 minutes ago, Dalinar Kholin said:

What stops the neutrals from claiming in order to avoid being targeted by either side? 

Because it's not actually a guarantee that they won't be attacked if they claim. For example, if the thief where to role-claim right now, I'd seriously consider putting him/her forward as the D1 lynch, just so that the risk he poses to the village metal reserves is elliminated. The same goes for the parole officer, as his goal is directly detrimental to the village (cause a mis-lynch).

[STINK]

Speaking of all this Tineye drama with the 'who's paying for this round of beers', I can say that I know someone who'll be paying today. 

So yeah, the rest of you Tineyes can keep all your wallets in your pocket. 

Oh, and it should be obvious that I have a PM with everyone. Free advice for all who speak up! (wow wonder which role already spoke to STINK)

[Straw]

*Wanders off to make some group PMs*

[STINK]

Oh yeah.

Straw.

Your graph was very satisfying. However, I must now go on to my next person to vote so that they do something or other. 

Drake.

I want more than 2 cents!

[DrakeMarshall]

We're all poor here in the barricade. Maybe I only got two cents.

[STINK]

3 minutes ago, Drake Marshall said:

We're all poor here in the barricade. Maybe I only got two cents.

Ah shucks you know the way I work! Drake.

Someone else feel like doing something where they analyse and I can continue to joke around?