Sart

Quick Fix Game 24: Eliminating Elysium

434 posts in this topic

EDIT: Post in the wrong thread.

Edited by Yitzi2
0

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, Yitzi2 said:

You raise good points against an "only ask if you're going to take an important action" approach.  However, I mentioned (and am now confident that if this is implemented we should have) fake asks, where you use cytonics but ask someone for permission to target them.  That way, the elims don't know whom to target because most such requests do not actually lead to a role.

If we do include enough fake requests, it should work to protect those with actual roles. It would also allow the elims to smuggle a request in for easy kills if enough people put in requests like that, though this is less of an issue if we avoid putting multiple requests against the same person.

6 minutes ago, Yitzi2 said:

I liked it at first, but the big issue is that the elims then know when one of theirs was scanned.  Without PMs, that means there's no way to turn that scan into a lynch without the elims having a pretty good idea of who the scanners are.

Getting the information out there is always going to be an issue in games without PM's, though I do agree having the elims know that they have been scanned could work in their advantage, though that could also come into play with your proposed system, though to a lesser degree. It could be circumvented to some degree if scanners where to apply some thought to how they approach getting someone lynched that they scanned. Instead of declaring that they are an agent and have scanned them and determined that the person is evil, they could try presenting the accusation as a case of analysis (as part of an analysis of multiple people, if possible). This is not fool and/or genius-proof, but it might work to keep scanners hidden.

0

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, randuir said:

If we do include enough fake requests, it should work to protect those with actual roles. It would also allow the elims to smuggle a request in for easy kills if enough people put in requests like that, though this is less of an issue if we avoid putting multiple requests against the same person.

Getting the information out there is always going to be an issue in games without PM's, though I do agree having the elims know that they have been scanned could work in their advantage, though that could also come into play with your proposed system, though to a lesser degree. It could be circumvented to some degree if scanners where to apply some thought to how they approach getting someone lynched that they scanned. Instead of declaring that they are an agent and have scanned them and determined that the person is evil, they could try presenting the accusation as a case of analysis (as part of an analysis of multiple people, if possible). This is not fool and/or genius-proof, but it might work to keep scanners hidden.

Also, if someone is killed, that will draw attention to those who requested to target them.  There's some IKYK, but if the elims use such a tactic the village will get at least some information.

And yes, any benefit from scanning will give the elims some information, but the possibility of fake requests and requests for things other than scans, and the fact that not all scanners will be focusing on the same person, will reduce it.  Though on the flip side, I realized that if we publicly ask someone to start a lynch discussion on the scan target and everybody to take part in that discussion, that would help cover the scanners  (A scanner might even vote opposite what they know in order to hide their identity if it won't affect the lynch result, though that comes at a risk if they're killed).

0

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I really have to figure out what's going on. I've been so inundated with LG34 that I kind of lost track of this. I promise a relevant post as soon as I review the rules, roles, and posts. 

0

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Another thing with Rand's plan for the scanning vote would be if we have multiple UIB agents. (Thanks BR!) How would they know which person to target? Or would we just get 3 scans on the same person? (Note: 3 is not an exact number, just a guess for demonstrative purposes.) And if the Aliens did figure out who a scanner was, they just wait for the vote to land on an innocent and then kill the scanner. Suspicion is thrown onto the scan target who must have defended themselves, and we lynch an innocent.

I am of the opinion currently that any actions (Ignoring Firebrand. Please save it for when you have suspicions.) should be used semi-randomly. If you don't know who you're targeting until that cycle as opposed to going through methodically, it'll be harder for people to catch on. It also means that since cytonics can only defend against one player, it would be incredibly hard for the person you're targeting to actually defend against you specifically with them. There's 17 players currently, so if it is random, (you have no bias, they have no suspicions) there's a 1 in 289 chance (If my math is correct.) for the players to match up. And that's ignoring the chance that they didn't use cytonics that round.

So yes, I do promote people using their actions, and without a particular plan. Also officially tossing my vote on Yitzi. You seem to be committed to your plan, and I can't really see how it would end up helping the village more than hurting it. Maybe you have good intentions, but I ain't willing to risk it.

Edit: Also wanted to mention I'm still suspicious of PK, but less, and newly suspicious of Arinian. He gives no reasons for his suspicions, backs up someone else who I am suspicious of, and seems like he is planning to vote on Ecth because it's "Tradition." That doesn't help anyone, unless Ecth is an Alien by sheer chance. He has done nothing so far to actually give us information on whether he's evil or not.

Edited by Bridge Boy
Added current suspicions.
0

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
50 minutes ago, Bridge Boy said:

I am of the opinion currently that any actions (Ignoring Firebrand. Please save it for when you have suspicions.) should be used semi-randomly. If you don't know who you're targeting until that cycle as opposed to going through methodically, it'll be harder for people to catch on. It also means that since cytonics can only defend against one player, it would be incredibly hard for the person you're targeting to actually defend against you specifically with them. There's 17 players currently, so if it is random, (you have no bias, they have no suspicions) there's a 1 in 289 chance (If my math is correct.) for the players to match up. And that's ignoring the chance that they didn't use cytonics that round.

Actually, it's only a 1 in 17 chance(ignoring people not using cytonics), as long as you use your power on someone, and they pick their defense randomly, there is a 1 in 17 chance they pick you. The chances involved in you picking someone randomly don't matter (look at the chances of getting a double on a set of dice, this is a similar problem).

I haven't really found a tactic that I think is better than just exercising good judgement yet, but given that this is C1, there's no harm in spending some time coming up with ideas.

0

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I'm suspicious of any plan that leads to providing the Elims with clues to who has a role and what role, so I'm going to put down my vote on Yitzi. He's not the only one who suggested plans like that, but as BB pointed out, he's still pushing it despite the potential drawbacks.

I also hate to see Ecth lynched D1 again. Save him until at least D2. :P

0

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Bridge Boy said:

Another thing with Rand's plan for the scanning vote would be if we have multiple UIB agents. (Thanks BR!) How would they know which person to target? Or would we just get 3 scans on the same person? (Note: 3 is not an exact number, just a guess for demonstrative purposes.) And if the Aliens did figure out who a scanner was, they just wait for the vote to land on an innocent and then kill the scanner. Suspicion is thrown onto the scan target who must have defended themselves, and we lynch an innocent.

I am of the opinion currently that any actions (Ignoring Firebrand. Please save it for when you have suspicions.) should be used semi-randomly. If you don't know who you're targeting until that cycle as opposed to going through methodically, it'll be harder for people to catch on. It also means that since cytonics can only defend against one player, it would be incredibly hard for the person you're targeting to actually defend against you specifically with them. There's 17 players currently, so if it is random, (you have no bias, they have no suspicions) there's a 1 in 289 chance (If my math is correct.) for the players to match up. And that's ignoring the chance that they didn't use cytonics that round.

So yes, I do promote people using their actions, and without a particular plan. Also officially tossing my vote on Yitzi. You seem to be committed to your plan, and I can't really see how it would end up helping the village more than hurting it. Maybe you have good intentions, but I ain't willing to risk it.

Edit: Also wanted to mention I'm still suspicious of PK, but less, and newly suspicious of Arinian. He gives no reasons for his suspicions, backs up someone else who I am suspicious of, and seems like he is planning to vote on Ecth because it's "Tradition." That doesn't help anyone, unless Ecth is an Alien by sheer chance. He has done nothing so far to actually give us information on whether he's evil or not.

Having 3 scans on the same person could be an advantage, since it'll make it that much easier for the result to influence the vote without PMs or roleclaims.

"Harder for people to catch on" is not always a good thing, particularly if you have a less important role.

Your math is not correct; there is only a 1 in 289 chance that you will target a particular individual who targeted you with cytonics (leaving aside role actions on their part), but if we ignore the target's role (assume he's a soldier, so uses cytonics exactly once) it's a 1 in 17 that whomever you targeted targeted you with cytonics.

4 minutes ago, Jondesu said:

I'm suspicious of any plan that leads to providing the Elims with clues to who has a role and what role, so I'm going to put down my vote on Yitzi. He's not the only one who suggested plans like that, but as BB pointed out, he's still pushing it despite the potential drawbacks.

I also hate to see Ecth lynched D1 again. Save him until at least D2. :P

I still think my plan is optimal due to the ability of fake requests to avoid giving the elims too much information (and maybe even direct them to cyto adepts that suspect them), but if nobody else thinks it's a good idea, then I'm willing to abandon it.  As I stated earlier, it is more important for the village to all be on the same page.

I do, however, have to wonder how "keeps pushing a plan, and is the only one to do so" is supposed to indicate elim-hood.  If anything, elims would find it easier to find other people to support them.  (Of course, that gets into IKYK, but it certainly isn't a stronger indication of elim-hood.)

Edited by Yitzi2
0

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Ok having re-read the rules, you guys seem to have a handle on strategy. This first day is moving a LOT faster than the medium game and the long game. And because I want to vote, I'm going to vote Bridge boy  . I have no good reason for doing so, except I used a RNG, in the name of randomness. I will almost definetly change my vote at some point later. 

0

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

^Not sure if serious or poking at my randomness plan^

But whatever. And ha! My math was wrong! I win! Of course, that's still ignoring actions, roles, Alien probes, suspicions, and it being considerably less random than I said. So I honestly believe that the chance of using an action on somebody and dying for it is incredibly low.

0

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Bridge Boy said:

There's 17 players currently, so if it is random, (you have no bias, they have no suspicions) there's a 1 in 289 chance (If my math is correct.)

10 minutes ago, Bridge Boy said:

I honestly believe that the chance of using an action on somebody and dying for it is incredibly low.

Well, they're not going to target themselves. So whoever you target actually has a 1 in 16 chance of defending against you. Except they're not going to guard against inactive players, which lowers it to something like 1 in 14. So that's a pretty decent chance of being killed. (And that's at the beginning of the game. As it goes on, it'll get worse.)

0

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
27 minutes ago, Bridge Boy said:

^Not sure if serious or poking at my randomness plan^

But whatever. And ha! My math was wrong! I win! Of course, that's still ignoring actions, roles, Alien probes, suspicions, and it being considerably less random than I said. So I honestly believe that the chance of using an action on somebody and dying for it is incredibly low.

You're also ignoring cyto adepts, and that aliens won't target each other.

The chance of using an action and dying for it is low...but not that much lower than the chance that you successfully targeted an alien with your action.  Which doesn't necessarily mean we should never use actions...but your plan does have costs as well.

0

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Okay, there's less than 6 hours left for C1, so I should probably put my vote out there. I might switch around at a later point, but for now I'm going to go vote on Lopen. He sets his vote up as a typical poke vote (Hey, you haven't said much yet, here is a vote and some questions to get you to talk more), but the vote he places is actually the second vote on him. He's well aware of this as well, as he included a vote tally. I'm not against a poke vote, if it's the first vote on someone, but in this case the vote moved Ecth to the most likely position to get him lynched(in any other cycle, probably not, but in C1 a lead like that can be deadly). It is also not unusual for Ecth to be quiet during the first cycle.

I'm still weary of both PK and Yitzi, though less so of Yitzi than I was before. If necessary I might move my vote to break an ecthelion/yitzi tie though.

Remember, There are no vote manip powers, and the secret vote power needs to be activated on a night turn, which hasn't occured yet, so there is no reason to consolidate the vote on any particular suspect.

Vote tally:

Ecthelion(2): PK, Lopen

Brightness(1): Seonid

Yitzi(3): Brightness, Bridge Boy, Jondesu

Bridge Boy(1): The Flash

Lopen(1): Randuir

Edited by randuir
0

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Well yeah, I know it's not perfect, but it still seems to be the safest plan that we have from my viewpoint. We need more information than we can get from just the thread, and it seems an acceptably small level of risk.

0

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Okay so, there isn't a lot of time left for this cycle and yitzi is in the lead to be lynched. I'm not SUPER suspicious of him and I second guess my votes all the time but especially on the first day. There's a lot of people who haven't voted yet...do y'all have any opinions and votes to add to this cycle?

As important as it is to decide what we're gonna do during the night cycle, we should still be focusing on this lynch.

Don't judge me if I fail at the vote tally please lol (I've failed before haha :P)

 

Ecthelion(2): PK, Lopen

Brightness(1): Seonid

Ytzi(3): Brightness, Bridge Boy, Jondesu

Bridge Boy(1): Flash

Lopen(1): Randuir

 @cloudjumper @asterion137 @StrikerEZ @Drake Marshall @Elenion @Arinian @Yitzi2 @Cluny the Scourge @Ecthelion III

Ninja'd by yitzi (you should vote lolz)

argh Ninja'd by Randuir and Bridge Boy as well :P

Edit:when you're holding a baby with one arm and typing with your free hand, you get Ninja'd a lot! :lol:

 

Edited by BrightnessRadiant
0

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Eh. There was really no point in voting on Bridge boy, especially based on an RNG. So bridgeboy   Yitzi . I kind of don't want to lynch Ecth.especially as he hasn't said anything. 

Edited by The Flash
0

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Bridge Boy said:

Well yeah, I know it's not perfect, but it still seems to be the safest plan that we have from my viewpoint. We need more information than we can get from just the thread, and it seems an acceptably small level of risk.

It'll probably cost the village a person every 4 rounds or so, depending on what portion use actions, what portion are cyto adepts, etc.  This cost would be in high-value players.

Now that I think of it, though, you may be right that target requests would increase the cost in high-value players (though it would also increase the number of elims killed by cytonics by letting cyto adepts pretend to be scanners and the like later on, and would have fewer total village kills than your plan).

 

4 minutes ago, BrightnessRadiant said:

Ninja'd by yitzi (you should vote lolz)

 

No thanks, at least not yet.  If I vote for myself, I make it harder for a last-minute change to clear me.  If I vote for Ecth, I just cause a tie, making me extremely suspicious (essentially ensuring that I get lynched anyway at some point, and then the village just wasted a lynch due to the tie).

0

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Because I got curious, I ran the math. Assuming two deaths per cycle, no cyto adepts and random picks for who to defend against, there's a roughly 20% chance someone using actions on others will have died to cytonics by C3. If we assume that there are 3 non-aliens with powers that target others and can be intercepted by cytonics, then there's an approximately 50% chance one of them will have died by the end of C3.

Of course, people don't actually spread their cytonics around randomly, but will instead target people they suspect (or so I hope). This means that, provided the ones submitting actions are paying attention to how the thread regards them, they should actually run a smaller risk (maybe you shouldn't use your scanning power against the guy stating that he is very suspicious of you).

1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Okay, I'm not sure why, but I feel really suspicious of Drake Marshall. It's just a gut read right now, and I doubt that it will develop into anything later. I just don't feel really comfortable jumping on a bandwagon right now. I want everyone to at least get a chance at the game, and I'd rather vote on someone who hasn't been voted on yet, though I'm still suspicious of.

Ninja'd by Yitzi and Randuir.

0

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Ecth. Arinian.

There's no reason whatsoever for people to vote on Ecth right now. Poke-votes are just to see if they're active. I'm not suspicious of Ecth at all, and seeing so many people attack her makes me really suspicious of them

0

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
13 minutes ago, Paranoid King said:

There's no reason whatsoever for people to vote on Ecth right now. Poke-votes are just to see if they're active. I'm not suspicious of Ecth at all, and seeing so many people attack her makes me really suspicious of them

Agreed. However, just FYI, Ecth is a 'him', not a 'her'.

Edit: Or at least, he was back when we played LG30. Apologies if something changed in that time period, Ecth :P.

Edited by randuir
0

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, randuir said:

Because I got curious, I ran the math. Assuming two deaths per cycle, no cyto adepts and random picks for who to defend against, there's a roughly 20% chance someone using actions on others will have died to cytonics by C3. If we assume that there are 3 non-aliens with powers that target others and can be intercepted by cytonics, then there's an approximately 50% chance one of them will have died by the end of C3.

Of course, people don't actually spread their cytonics around randomly, but will instead target people they suspect (or so I hope). This means that, provided the ones submitting actions are paying attention to how the thread regards them, they should actually run a smaller risk (maybe you shouldn't use your scanning power against the guy stating that he is very suspicious of you).

What percentage of people did you assume are using actions on others?  Also remember, someone using actions on others isn't using cytonics.

That said, it's clear that "just target randomly" won't work well as the game gets on and cytonics becomes that much more effective.

I did have another idea, though, combining my earlier one with something that IIRC you said: If we can all agree to have everyone name a person and then target either that person or nobody with their action (unless they are the PC operator, who can target someone they didn't name, since we all find out whom they targeted), then the aliens won't get any role info (since everybody is naming a potential target).  We'd also then ask firebrands to consider using their abilities (it doesn't really matter that much if the aliens have some clues as to who the firebrands are.)  The aliens could use cytonics...but that will pretty much reveal them when the person who targeted them ends up dead from cytonics, and given typical elim/village ratios I doubt the sacrifice would be worth it to take out someone who might be a UIB agent but might just be a firebrand.  They could also use it to get a cytonics-free kill...but that would require them to kill someone that one of them named, giving the village some information.

This would have to be either something that the village either agrees for everybody to do, or doesn't do at all, so a vote on the matter may be appropriate.

0

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, Yitzi2 said:

What percentage of people did you assume are using actions on others?  Also remember, someone using actions on others isn't using cytonics.

I kept my calculations relatively simple, so I assumed that each person would was the only one using non-cytonics actions (bringing in the others makes things significantly more complicated).

3 minutes ago, Yitzi2 said:

That said, it's clear that "just target randomly" won't work well as the game gets on and cytonics becomes that much more effective.

I did have another idea, though, combining my earlier one with something that IIRC you said: If we can all agree to have everyone name a person and then target either that person or nobody with their action (unless they are the PC operator, who can target someone they didn't name, since we all find out whom they targeted), then the aliens won't get any role info (since everybody is naming a potential target).  We'd also then ask firebrands to consider using their abilities (it doesn't really matter that much if the aliens have some clues as to who the firebrands are.)  The aliens could use cytonics...but that will pretty much reveal them when the person who targeted them ends up dead from cytonics, and given typical elim/village ratios I doubt the sacrifice would be worth it to take out someone who might be a UIB agent but might just be a firebrand.  They could also use it to get a cytonics-free kill...but that would require them to kill someone that one of them named, giving the village some information.

This would have to be either something that the village either agrees for everybody to do, or doesn't do at all, so a vote on the matter may be appropriate.

I'm not sure what you are suggesting here. Do you mean that everyone should indicate someone that they'd prefer would not ward against them, or do you mean that each cycle we have a vote for one person that shouldn't be defending so that they can be scanned (and, drawback: killed) without risk? Or do you mean something else?

Also, has it been confirmed that PC kills will be confirmed as being such?

0

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.