Long Game 34: Allomancer

[Araris Valerian]

I would like to point out that Meta started out with a Spike. So he could be an elim, and they would still have an allomantic power. I honestly don't think it's too unrealistic for the Ventures to have no allomancers on their team though. With the system in this game those abilities didn't seem to do to much except for the two kills and Flash saving himself.

[Elenion]

25 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

I would like to point out that Meta started out with a Spike. So he could be an elim, and they would still have an allomantic power. I honestly don't think it's too unrealistic for the Ventures to have no allomancers on their team though. With the system in this game those abilities didn't seem to do to much except for the two kills and Flash saving himself.

Meta started out with a Spike, other than the one that he got from that lynch a few cycles back? What was it?

 

@Manukos It's good that you're honest. This way, we can be prepared with the necessary info if that becomes relevant to the lynch. Because the other evidence in the game points to your innocence, and because you could have lied and probably gotten away with it, I trust your story.

@The FlashI don't think there's anything that definitively proves my innocence, but I have an alibi for the night Jon targeted a teammate because I was Hazekilling Yitzi, and Manukos targeted me the night that Cloud was killed and can back up that I performed no actions. So I'm either village, or an elim that hasn't put in the elim kill for the last 3 cycles. Also, I put myself on the Hazekill list, so if I am an elim I'm certainly making things difficult for my team.

[Araris Valerian]

Quote

I am a Hazekiller. I also have a Copper Spike which I implanted N0. I did have one copper that I picked up on N4, but I'm pretty sure Araris stole that as well, even if the GMs forgot to put it in the PM (can you at least verify if the thief takes all items from a person or just one, Seonid?). 

 

[Steeldancer]

2 hours ago, Araris Valerian said:

 

Um what are you trying to say Araris? and I got my drivers license!!!!!!!!! . So now I can do some analysis, soon to come. 

[Elenion]

46 minutes ago, The Flash said:

Um what are you trying to say Araris? and I got my drivers license!!!!!!!!! . So now I can do some analysis, soon to come. 

Araris was quoting Meta in response to me: I didn't remember that Meta had claimed Copper Spiked. That makes him have a role I expected to be with the elims, furthering my suspicions on him.

[Araris Valerian]

Well, copper spiked is somewhat useless on an elim team if they don't have allomancers.

[Elenion]

10 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

Well, copper spiked is somewhat useless on an elim team if they don't have allomancers.

There is the fourth elim to consider, who likely is an Allomancer (HH and Sart both are), but even if not there is the chance of offensive Smoking. It's definitely not proof; we don't even know if elim roles were chosen or randomized, but I think a Smoker is more likely an elim than, say, a Coinshot, Lurcher, Thug, or Rioter.

[Steeldancer]

I also think a tineye is likely for the elims. And sart is a tineye. 

[Elenion]

5 hours ago, The Flash said:

I also think a tineye is likely for the elims. And sart is a tineye. 

Which is also telling considering the alternative to Sart is HH, who's basically inactive and has been for the last few kills. Sart is my suspect for the second elim, but my evidence against him isn't nearly as good as it is against Meta, which that's why I've moved against Meta first.

I'm concerned about the lack of votes thus far. If nobody votes, we leave ourselves open to a hammer vote from the elims. If y'all would prefer lynching Sart to Meta, we can do that today, and then have Meta and Manukos Hazekill each other tonight to ensure that no active Hazekiller can put in the elim kill tonight. I'd rather take Meta at this point because I think chances of him being an elim are higher than Sart, but I think the chances of both are over 50% and lynching either would be beneficial. If two votes materialize on Sart and nobody joins me on Meta, I'll change my vote to Sart and lock in the lynch.

@The FlashHave you finished your analysis of my trustworthiness yet?

[Metacognition]

Arg! You would pull this now Len, when I just don't have time to adequately defend myself! Well played. 

I, perhaps too obviously, wound up blocking HH. 

I don't have time to go into detail, but we need to be careful here guys. The game is much closer than Len is letting on. If we mislynch here, and the Ventures kill one of us tonight, then it's 3-2 (there's got to be two left considering Manukos' and my Hazekills) and one of those 3 would be either HH or Sart. So unless they come back again, they'd be able to at least tie the lynch and then we're dead. 

Which is why I think Len is our Elim. A lot of what he's done this game has been subtle, but it tends to be just misleading enough. Like how he tried to subtley throw some suspicion on me with the theory that I put in a Hazekill for Jondesu to block. Or, the fact that the game is closer now than he's letting on. Or how Yitzi had to call him out about leaving himself off of the "experienced" list when he was throwing accusations at those of us still alive. And then there was our plan with Manukos and my Hazekills. It was a nice touch, but Len was the one to guide us to hitting both Sart and HH, the two people that we went after. And the final straw for me is the fact that he keeps talking about the Venture distribution as if they couldn't have a Rioter. You know what would make a pretty good counter to an Elim Rioter? If HH is a Smoker, then by having one dedicated Smoker and then one like myself, where I can gain Smoking as the game gets closer and smoking is more necessary, I think that actually balances it out fairly well. 

So I'm sorry I can't do more, but I'm telling you guys, we need to get this one right and Len is my best guess as to who is a Venture. I'll try to be on again after work, which will be a little before rollover, so I can try to answer any final questions then. 

[Steeldancer]

12 hours ago, Elenion said:

Which is also telling considering the alternative to Sart is HH, who's basically inactive and has been for the last few kills. Sart is my suspect for the second elim, but my evidence against him isn't nearly as good as it is against Meta, which that's why I've moved against Meta first.

I'm concerned about the lack of votes thus far. If nobody votes, we leave ourselves open to a hammer vote from the elims. If y'all would prefer lynching Sart to Meta, we can do that today, and then have Meta and Manukos Hazekill each other tonight to ensure that no active Hazekiller can put in the elim kill tonight. I'd rather take Meta at this point because I think chances of him being an elim are higher than Sart, but I think the chances of both are over 50% and lynching either would be beneficial. If two votes materialize on Sart and nobody joins me on Meta, I'll change my vote to Sart and lock in the lynch.

@The FlashHave you finished your analysis of my trustworthiness yet?

Yes. I thiink I can trust you. You've been participating and bringing so much helpful advice. You didn't seem to be teaming up with Jondesu. And so I am voting Sart  . I think the tineye is likely to be elim, sart has been around unlike HH, who I think wouldn't have had time to put in the kill. However, I think if sart isn't an elim, and the kill goes through despite the above plan that Elenion described, than elenion is probably elim. 

And Ninja'd by meta

The thing is, kills occured despite Elenion being hazekilled. So either Manukos is lying, or there is a fourth elim, or Elenion isn't elim. However, I think Lopens suspicion of Elenion is interesting. And a someone pointed out that virtually everyone that Elenion has pointed out as suspicious has been killed by elims or otherwise. 

Edited June 22, 2017 by The Flash

[Elenion]

58 minutes ago, Metacognition said:

Arg! You would pull this now Len, when I just don't have time to adequately defend myself! Well played. 

You make it sound like I sprung this on you at the last second to try to entrap you, but my analysis that implicates you has been up for nearly 36 hours now.

51 minutes ago, Metacognition said:

Like how he tried to subtley throw some suspicion on me with the theory that I put in a Hazekill for Jondesu to block. (1) Or, the fact that the game is closer now than he's letting on. (5) Or how Yitzi had to call him out about leaving himself off of the "experienced" list when he was throwing accusations at those of us still alive. (2) And then there was our plan with Manukos and my Hazekills. It was a nice touch, but Len was the one to guide us to hitting both Sart and HH, the two people that we went after. (3) And the final straw for me is the fact that he keeps talking about the Venture distribution as if they couldn't have a Rioter. You know what would make a pretty good counter to an Elim Rioter? If HH is a Smoker, then by having one dedicated Smoker and then one like myself, where I can gain Smoking as the game gets closer and smoking is more necessary, (4) I think that actually balances it out fairly well. 

1. I didn't think I was being that subtle about my Jon-blocked-a-teammate theory; I've been bringing up the idea of Jon targeting one of his own at least once per cycle. It's only this cycle that I've suggested that you were the teammate being blocked, and I wasn't subtle with that either. Also, I didn't say that you had put in a Hazekill action, I instead suggested the elim kill because it is repeatable and you wouldn't have wanted it to go through anyway. Here's exactly what I said:

Quote

Meta was on around turnover as N5 started, and so could have put in the elim kill for Jon to block.

2. Yitzi called me out for leaving myself off of the experienced list, but the whole reason I made that list was so I could see which experienced players the elims might have. I'm not going to put myself on that list because I know that I'm not an experienced player working for the elims, even if I am an experienced player in general.

3. I didn't guide you at all into blocking HH. In fact, I thought that if I was implying anything I was implying that you should check in on Yitzi, because he was active, and a few cycles ago I had pressed him into directly claiming to have only one role so that he wouldn't have a fallback excuse if he was caught any sort of action. Where did you think that I was guiding you into blocking HH?

4. I guess it's possible that the elims have a Rioter if the village has two Smokers; however, I really don't think that both of the Smokers are village, so that point is moot.

5. Last cycle we had almost complete activity (everyone except HH), so I was hopeful that we wouldn't have inactivity woes from here on out. Maybe I was being too optimistic, but I think there's still a chance for us if we lose this lynch.

1 hour ago, The Flash said:

Yes. I thiink I can trust you. You've been participating and bringing so much helpful advice. You didn't seem to be teaming up with Jondesu. And so I am voting Sart  . I think the tineye is likely to be elim, sart has been around unlike HH, who I think wouldn't have had time to put in the kill. However, I think if sart isn't an elim, and the kill goes through despite the above plan that Elenion described, than elenion is probably elim. 

And Ninja'd by meta

If after Meta's comments and my countercomments you'd still rather lynch Sart, I'll follow you in that, but I really think we need to remove Meta today because he's active and more likely to be evil. The evidence against Sart is circumstantial, while against Meta it is more solid.

@Manukos @Hemalurgic_Headshot @Araris Valerian @Sart So far only three votes have been cast out of 7 players. Please, read up on what has happened, draw your conclusions, and vote!

[Araris Valerian]

I'm going to also put my vote on Elenion. I think Meta could have lied about me, since by that point it had become significant in discussion that I could be a thief helping the elims. So if I had died and come up thief, suspicion wouldn't necessarily have fallen on Meta. There were 2 things that might have cause it to; the identity of the item I had stolen, and the fact that courier PMs close after death. But Meta was the person to bring these things up, not me. He did a better job of confirming my story than he needed to, and that makes me trust him.

[Steeldancer]

42 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

I'm going to also put my vote on Elenion. I think Meta could have lied about me, since by that point it had become significant in discussion that I could be a thief helping the elims. So if I had died and come up thief, suspicion wouldn't necessarily have fallen on Meta. There were 2 things that might have cause it to; the identity of the item I had stolen, and the fact that courier PMs close after death. But Meta was the person to bring these things up, not me. He did a better job of confirming my story than he needed to, and that makes me trust him.

Also Meta had some suspicions earlier in the game that would appear to clear him. I personally think Meta is village. 

[Elenion]

@Araris ValerianThat's exactly what the elims planned to happen. Jon was the one who leveled the accusations against you, but when it became clear that he was going to be lynched only then did Meta step in and defend you. Look at the order of votes: before Meta voted on Jon, there were already 7 votes on Jon: yours, Flash's, Yitzi's, mine, Cloud's, Drought's, and HH's, compared to only Jon's vote on you. Meta wasn't defending you, only bussing his teammate for trust. And it looks like it worked.

[Araris Valerian]

But there was definitely enough time for the vote to switch back. If people saw that I was "lying," I would have been dead in a flash.

[Elenion]

52 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

But there was definitely enough time for the vote to switch back. If people saw that I was "lying," I would have been dead in a flash.

HH had already backed up your action, so all Meta lying would have done was to get him lynched together with Jon. Maybe you first, or maybe not, but Meta would have gone down the pipes right after.

Anyway, my first priority is to ensure the lynch of an elim, and if Meta isn't going to be lynched, I'll at least attempt to take Sart down.

[manukos]

hmmmm sry for being late , i'll have to go with straw , from what i've seen from HH during past games ,he isn't the type to go full on invisible and logging in only to place kill orders no matter if he has little time or not , i also "trust" elenion since he didn't place an order for two turns even if he would have been the best one to do so . 

@Metacognition will you go for len this night ? 

[Seonid]

1 minute ago, Manukos said:

hmmmm sry for being late , i'll have to go with straw , from what i've seen from HH during past games ,he isn't the type to go full on invisible and logging in only to place kill orders no matter if he has little time or not , i also "trust" elenion since he didn't place an order for two turns even if he would have been the best one to do so . 

@Metacognition will you go for len this night ? 

Straw isn't playing this game. I can't record that vote. Please vote for a player who is playing this game.

[manukos]

oops. not straw i meant sart 

sorry !

[Steeldancer]

43 minutes ago, Manukos said:

oops. not straw i meant sart 

sorry !

Lol whoops. Either way, if sart turns out to be not evil, and if we do the block train, we should be able to identify whether Elenion is evil. 

[Elenion]

13 minutes ago, The Flash said:

Either way, if sart turns out to be not evil, and if we do the block train, we should be able to identify whether Elenion is evil. 

Then it's now or never for this game, because if Sart turns out village, the two remaining elims can sneak the kill around the block, then I'm next on the chopping block, and after you mislynch me that's game. For both our sakes I hope Sart is evil.

[Steeldancer]

And if the other elim is HH? 

[Metacognition]

7 hours ago, Manukos said:

hmmmm sry for being late , i'll have to go with straw , from what i've seen from HH during past games ,he isn't the type to go full on invisible and logging in only to place kill orders no matter if he has little time or not , i also "trust" elenion since he didn't place an order for two turns even if he would have been the best one to do so . 

@Metacognition will you go for len this night ? 

Oh, I will definitely be blocking Len tonight; no matter the outcome of this lynch. I've suspected that Len and Sart are probably our last elims and I could see Len throwing his inactive teammate under the bus so that he can survive. 

3 hours ago, The Flash said:

And if the other elim is HH? 

I think this is unlikely, but if he is, then we've basically lost. :/ 

[DrakeMarshall]

Cycle is now closed!