Elenion Posted June 19, 2017 Report Share Posted June 19, 2017 I've baked my plan a little more, and it goes like this: There are certain players in the game right now that "should not" be performing night actions, either because they have claimed that they do not have any to perform or because the player hasn't posted in the thread. If one of these players is caught performing a night action, it is effectively proven that it is the elim kill. Players who have claimed legitimate night actions: Meta Manukos Flash Araris Players that should not be performing night actions: Myself (only day actions remaining) Yitzi (no actions remaining) Sart (unless he posts in thread AND he just did as I'm typing this post) -- @Sarta roleclaim would be great, if you feel so inclined. We have one from basically everybody else. HH (unless he posts in thread) Our two Hazekillers, then, should be able to police the bottom group at random, without fear of blocking friendly actions. Now this puts the elims in a conundrum. If they have a player in the bottom group, they can't put in the elim kill without having a high chance of being blocked, and if they have a player in the top group, they can make the elim kill once, but that reveals their position and gives us more information. The end result of this strategy is the the elims will either have to stop making the elim kill, or each time they make it they give us a boatload of information as to what players could not have possibly done it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Araris Valerian Posted June 19, 2017 Report Share Posted June 19, 2017 How does someone in the top group making a kill give anything away? We don't have enough hazekillers to check all the bottom people each cycle, so we can't assume that it was one of them. Also, HH is likely a smoker since I stole copper from him, so he could have a legitimate night action. There isn't much reason for him to use it though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
manukos Posted June 19, 2017 Report Share Posted June 19, 2017 (edited) @Elenion intresting proposition , I like it However it has some problems , if my hazekill last night "proved " that you are town then: If a someone is injured and no kill occures then meta and I share our targets and within two turns we have ourself a dead elim But if a kill happens whith no one injured then it could be that the elims are :you meta or me . And if it is me or meta then that leaves whoever we blocked as a second elim (but well a second elim confuses things) I dont even want to think what happens if one of us gets injured and a kill is made (too confusing) However I do like the plan since the first scenario is too good for us . I'll even say that I am going to target sart , so @Metacognition go for anyone else in the bottom group @Araris ValerianValerianVahleianValerianValerianValerianVahleianValerian thanks for volunteering the info about hh even P.S. I am on the bus so sry if the post is kinda messy and for any possible typos also araris I have no idea what happened with your name my phone is weird EDIT P.S.2 the plan hinges on me and meta not being elims , so can someone back up his statement that Jondesu " has been trying to throw suspicion on him basically all game" Edited June 19, 2017 by Manukos Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yitzi2 Posted June 19, 2017 Report Share Posted June 19, 2017 4 hours ago, Manukos said: EDIT P.S.2 the plan hinges on me and meta not being elims , so can someone back up his statement that Jondesu " has been trying to throw suspicion on him basically all game" Not so sure that would prove it; elims might try to throw suspicion on each other so that when one is caught the other is cleared. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Elenion Posted June 19, 2017 Report Share Posted June 19, 2017 @Araris ValerianBecause you stole HH's Copper, I doubt he's been on to order himself a spare, and even if he somehow had a spare that he's left unused then he can't be using it if he's actually inactive. @ManukosI was actually going to ask you to determine your target at random and then not share it with anybody. That makes it impossible for an elim in the bottom list to know if they are safe to make the kill or not. As to the assumption that both remaining Hazekillers are village, it would be great if that was the truth, but if an elim kill makes it through then we take a good look at the Hazekillers. An elim Hazekiller, therefore, would risk suspicion if they put the kill in. If they wanted to remain unsuspicious, they would play along with the plan, but that gives us unlimited time to remove the inactive players. Either way, the elim Hazekiller would be limited as we eat into their information advantage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sart Posted June 20, 2017 Report Share Posted June 20, 2017 I'm mostly caught up. As for role-claims, I'm a Tineye. Unfortunately, the people I've scanned didn't do actions, and have also died, so it's not exactly useful information. I scanned Cloud Night 1, and Yitzi Night 3. I decided not to do an action night 2, trying to save my last vial until I had decided on a suspect. Unfortunately, the suspect was detained, so I didn't get any useful information out of it. I'm out of metal now, but if anyone has a spare vial, I wouldn't mind having it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Elenion Posted June 20, 2017 Report Share Posted June 20, 2017 Okay, so unless Sart gets a new vial we can keep him on the Hazekill list. That's good. Because there aren't any non-Droughtbringer votes out, but I still need to prove my role, I'm going to have to Riot someone's vote away from Drought. I'm warning everyone in advance so that it doesn't look like a hammer vote. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yitzi2 Posted June 20, 2017 Report Share Posted June 20, 2017 2 hours ago, Elenion said: Okay, so unless Sart gets a new vial we can keep him on the Hazekill list. That's good. Because there aren't any non-Droughtbringer votes out, but I still need to prove my role, I'm going to have to Riot someone's vote away from Drought. I'm warning everyone in advance so that it doesn't look like a hammer vote. I take it rioters can't riot "no vote" to someone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seonid Posted June 20, 2017 Author Report Share Posted June 20, 2017 29 minutes ago, Yitzi2 said: I take it rioters can't riot "no vote" to someone? They can. And cycle is over! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seonid Posted June 20, 2017 Author Report Share Posted June 20, 2017 (edited) Night 7: The Sleeper Jay was afraid. Against all odds, he had made it into the guard crew of House Conrad. Now he just had to make sure nobody ever found out his secret - he was blind. At first it was easy. His hearing was well-developed, and he walked with a dueling cane as if it were a fashion statement. It would take very observant eyes indeed to notice that he was using it to tap out the floor in front of him. He picked up a reputation for clumsiness, but he was mostly fine with that. Until he heard the gossip at the common room tables. "Did you see Jay fall over that stool today? You'd have to be blind to miss it!" After that, his fear got the better of him. He started to hide, to avoid assignments, to avoid interaction of all kinds. Eventually, he just started to sleep. Might build up resentment against him, but it kept his secret safe. It was unfortunate for him that, after a few murders, resentment tended to express itself in lethal ways. It was probably fortunate for him that he never woke up to find that out. ------------------------------------ Night 7 has begun! It will end at 10:30 PM, Mountain Daylight Time, June 20th. Vote Count: Droughtbringer (4): The Flash, Manukos, Yitzi2, Araris Valerian, Metacognition Elenion (1): The Flash Jay (DroughtBringer) was lynched! They were a Village Hazekiller! No metals are available tonight! Player List: Marv (Hemalurgic_Headshot) Barry Allen (The Flash) Jeff (Manukos) - short for Jeffonimo Lance (Ecthelion III) - The Second Nameless Metallurgist Booken (Paranoid King) - a victim of the "common word + en" method of naming Village Seeker Garshin (Yitzi2) Ribis (cloudjumper) - the bored second son of a noble from the Remote Dominance Village Coinshot Stick McStick (_Stick_) Village Courier and Brass Spiked Remart (Jondesu) Venture Hazekiller Beet Asper (Ornstein) - an old timer who knows his stuff Metallurgist Locke Tekiel (OrlokTsubodai) - a scion of a well - respected noble house Village Captain Absolen (StrikerEZ) - a skaa worker in the Conrad fields Village Lurcher Jay (DroughtBringer) - a blind young man attempting to keep his blindness a secret Village Hazekiller Boris (Elenion) - a guard known for laziness and general apathy Hadrian Penrod (Araris Valerian) - hoping to ascend to Ruin Mehir (Metacognition) - a mute and paranoid guard Cluny (Cluny the Scourge) - a man who believes he is a rat with a spearhead on his tail Village Soother with a Bronze Spike Valbar (TheMightyLopen) - who always gets ignored despite his large stature Village Rioter Mila (BrightnessRadiant) - a girl from the country Venture Courier Sorren Karidor (Dalinar Kholin) - an old guard who's been here longer than any of you whippersnappers Village Thug Argyle (Sart) - a very clumsy man Edited June 20, 2017 by Seonid 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Elenion Posted June 20, 2017 Report Share Posted June 20, 2017 I moved Flash's vote onto myself, because why not? I'm now out of Zinc, so I've got no actions remaining. Looks like we didn't get lucky with the Drought lynch, so next Day I suggest we target HH or Sart. HH warned us that he would be going inactive, and I'm a bit suspicious of Sart because there are quite a few older players in this game and both Meta and Araris appear to be on the up and up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
manukos Posted June 20, 2017 Report Share Posted June 20, 2017 the reason that i said that i am blocking sart tonight is so that meta and i dont both select the same target his hazekill will ofcourse no be publicly anounced until tomorow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steeldancer Posted June 20, 2017 Report Share Posted June 20, 2017 Well darn. I was really hopeful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metacognition Posted June 20, 2017 Report Share Posted June 20, 2017 I'm good with that Manukos and while I already have a target in mind, I won't say who it is. If we don't find them tonight, to be fair, I'll give my target early on and then your target will be the hidden one, okay? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
manukos Posted June 20, 2017 Report Share Posted June 20, 2017 (edited) you got it, meta and yes flash , i thought we finaly got the elim as well , Edited June 20, 2017 by Manukos Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Elenion Posted June 20, 2017 Report Share Posted June 20, 2017 I had a dream last night where I logged on to SE and this game was over. There were only 3 elims, and the last one was Sart. If that turns out to be right I'm going to laugh so hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steeldancer Posted June 21, 2017 Report Share Posted June 21, 2017 Ok so sart was the tineye and HH the copper clouder? I honestly was most suspicious of those allomantic roles. I don't have enough time to analyze the thread, but I guarantee I'll be analyzing this tomorrow. Or trying to. Goodness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yitzi2 Posted June 21, 2017 Report Share Posted June 21, 2017 12 minutes ago, The Flash said: Ok so sart was the tineye and HH the copper clouder? I honestly was most suspicious of those allomantic roles. Any particular reason why? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Elenion Posted June 21, 2017 Report Share Posted June 21, 2017 3 hours ago, Yitzi2 said: Any particular reason why? I'm not Flash and so can't speak for him, but I'll just chip in here that scanning and scan defense are often found on elim teams, so that the elims can find prospective target roles and protect their killer from being spotted. Generally things like vote manip and vigilante kills are kept scarce or nonexistent on elim team, and Pewter and Iron are sometimes present and sometimes not, but I can't think of a Scadrial game where the elims didn't have scanning, scan defense, or both. That's my thoughts on elim role distribution in case I'm killed tonight. If I'm killed, that means the elims either got a lucky pass through the Hazekill blockade or have an uninjured Hazekiller on their side. Scrutinize the Hazekillers carefully. I'm not leaving contingency plans for if I'm not killed because in that case I'd still be alive for analysis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrakeMarshall Posted June 21, 2017 Report Share Posted June 21, 2017 ...and the cycle is closed! Next one is on the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seonid Posted June 21, 2017 Author Report Share Posted June 21, 2017 (edited) EDIT: Ninja'ed! Edited June 21, 2017 by Seonid Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrakeMarshall Posted June 21, 2017 Report Share Posted June 21, 2017 Day 8: A Venture Out in the Mists A fine grey ash started drifting softly down from the sky, and the mists began to materialize in the air. Combined, the pair made for a truly alien landscape... One that was singularly challenging to see through. Garshin walked alone back to the barracks, leaning heavily on his crutches. His broken leg had been properly cast, but it was still far from mended. The journey to the barracks was a trivial one, even if the mists and falling ash obscured the barracks from his view. Progress was painfully slow. From what he knew of allomancy (for he had been trained to recognize and fight most types of misting), thugs were supposed to be able to heal from wounds like a broken bone practically overnight. That sounded nice. Garshin heard footsteps to his left. It would be another guard, returning from the manor proper. "Hullo!" he shouted companionably through the mists, hobbling over towards the source of the steps. The footsteps stopped. Garshin moved through the mists, but ran into nobody. He looked around, perplexed. "Anyone?" He shrugged, and turned back in the direction he guessed the barracks would be in. He limped along, trusting he would find it eventually. Surely I'm not that slow, even on crutches... Something was wrong. Garshin should have reached the barracks by now, but he still couldn't see them. He couldn't see anything. Just ash and mists, working together in tandem to create an impenetrable fog around him. "Lost?" a voice asked behind him. Garshin whirled around (a somewhat impressive featt in his present state), then relaxed when he saw the guard. "Lord Ruler, you nearly scared me to death!" "Lets finish the job then." the guard said, seizing hold of Garshin's crutch in one hand and body slamming him. Garshin toppled. Blow after blow rained down on his head and back. The crutch broke with a loud crack in his assailants hand, and the guard began mercilessly kicking Garshin on the ground. Unable to stand, Garshin could do little but curl up and hope he survived the beating. He didn't. ------------------------------------ That next morning, the guards spotted Garshin's lifeless body outside. It was a scant few paces from the dirt trail that lead to the barracks. Further investigations revealed that Garshin had been a hazekiller. Unsurprisingly, no incriminting evidence was discovered. ------------------------------------ Day 8 has begun! It will end at 10:30 PM, Mountain Daylight Time, June 22th. Garshin (Yitzi2) was murdered! They were a Village Hazekiller! Player List: Marv (Hemalurgic_Headshot) Barry Allen (The Flash) Jeff (Manukos) - short for Jeffonimo Lance (Ecthelion III) - The Second Nameless Metallurgist Booken (Paranoid King) - a victim of the "common word + en" method of naming Village Seeker Garshin (Yitzi2) Village Hazekiller Ribis (cloudjumper) - the bored second son of a noble from the Remote Dominance Village Coinshot Stick McStick (_Stick_) Village Courier and Brass Spiked Remart (Jondesu) Venture Hazekiller Beet Asper (Ornstein) - an old timer who knows his stuff Metallurgist Locke Tekiel (OrlokTsubodai) - a scion of a well - respected noble house Village Captain Absolen (StrikerEZ) - a skaa worker in the Conrad fields Village Lurcher Jay (DroughtBringer) - a blind young man attempting to keep his blindness a secret Village Hazekiller Boris (Elenion) - a guard known for laziness and general apathy Hadrian Penrod (Araris Valerian) - hoping to ascend to Ruin Mehir (Metacognition) - a mute and paranoid guard Cluny (Cluny the Scourge) - a man who believes he is a rat with a spearhead on his tail Village Soother with a Bronze Spike Valbar (TheMightyLopen) - who always gets ignored despite his large stature Village Rioter Mila (BrightnessRadiant) - a girl from the country Venture Courier Sorren Karidor (Dalinar Kholin) - an old guard who's been here longer than any of you whippersnappers Village Thug Argyle (Sart) - a very clumsy man 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Elenion Posted June 21, 2017 Report Share Posted June 21, 2017 WARNING: LARGE ANALYSIS POST INCOMING. Okay, so they got Yitzi, unsurprisingly. He was widely regarded as village guaranteed not to have protection compared to Flash's possible Pewter stash. @The Flash don't tell anybody how much Pewter you have left, if you have any. It'll keep the elims guessing as to whether or not it's safe to kill you. @Manukos @Metacognition Whom did you Hazekill last night? There are now only seven of us left, and Flash and Araris are above suspicion. I can fully trust myself, so that means that the elims must be in [Meta, Manukos, Sart, HH]. HH hasn't posted at all in the thread since D6, so if he has been putting the elim kills in for all this time I'm going to be very put out. Meta and Manukos posted yesterday, and I spotted Sart's name on the recently-viewing list right after turnover, so any of them could have been on to put in the elim kill. Unfortunately, two of those three are Hazekillers, and unless Sart is the only remaining elim (highly unlikely given 21 starting players) that means that we have yet another elim Hazekiller in our midst. That also explains why the elims would have elected to kill last night despite the possibility of it being blocked: they knew that their elim Hazekiller could put in the kill with no chance of being blocked, and then claim to have Hazekilled a target that did not put in an action. What we know at this stage: Flash and Araris are clear. Unless he's doing some hardcore lurking, HH is also clear, but HH is a known lurker so him being evil can't be discounted. The elims possess at least one living Hazekiller. The starting elim team was composed of a Courier, 2 Hazekillers, and likely a fourth player. Chances that Seonid would have started out the elims with a Courier and then 3 Hazekillers are very low. Therefore... One of [Manukos, Meta] is evil, but likely not both unless the elims started with 3 Hazekillers. One of [Sart, HH] is evil (again assuming the elims didn't start with 3 Hazekillers). Therefore, we need to take one of these pairings and figure out which is evil. If we have a mislynch today, we have a safety net in that next Day our numbers would be 3 against 2, with a guaranteed elim paired with the dead villager, and the villager that would be elim killed would have time to analyze the results of today's lynch before they go down. Even so, I don't want to use that safety net. To figure out what the pairings our, next we need to dredge up what happened D6, the day that we lynched Jon. Jon throws his vote down on Araris. Araris later retaliates, but these votes aren't important because each "knew" the other was lying. No real analysis required. Yitzi (village) votes Araris Flash votes on Jon after Araris claims Len is skeptical of Araris' claim and votes on Araris Yitzi switches votes to Jon after Araris makes a fullclaim of all of his actions Len realizes that Brightness' PMs closed after her death, and switches his vote to Jon Cloud votes on Jon Drought votes on Jon HH confirms Araris' alibi and votes on Jon Meta confirms Araris' alibi and votes on Jon Manukos votes on Jon. He also says "message to the elims : if you kill someone at least post on that night , chasing ghosts with no info isn't fun at all ", which I read as village. I'm going to refer to this statement later, as it is a key piece of evidence to Manukos' innocence. Discussion gradually fizzles out Jon is lynched Matching up this order of actions to our suspects, we see that Meta and HH both voted Jon at about the same time while confirming Araris' alibis for two nights, while Sart did not vote. However, as I said earlier, this wasn't alignment-indicative for Meta, because had Meta lied Araris' testimony being verified would have led to Meta being lynched. The same reasoning can be applied to HH, and both votes came at a time when the bandwagon had already taken off on Jon, so unfortunately we can't tell a lot about either player. Sart wasn't even on, so he's completely out of this analysis. One thing that does stick out to me, though, is that Jon was very insistent, even to his death, that Araris and Meta were working together to frame him. This could have been an attempt to distance Jon from Meta before the former died. Next up, we must re-approach the million-dollar question: whom did Jon Hazekill the night that he claimed to have Hazekilled Araris (but we know that he didn't)? I made a table of all players and their alibis for that night. Cross-referencing that with [Manukos OR Meta] + [Sart OR HH], I find that all four of those players did not post that night, although Meta was hanging around right around that turnover. Meta, however, denied putting any action in because he later said that he meant to implant his Spike but didn't have time. Manukos, according to his own statement earlier, would have considered putting the elim kill in unsportsmanlike because he didn't post that night. Because of the general dearth of information surrounding Sart and HH, I think we're going to have to make our lynch decision based off of [Meta OR Manukos]. And for that choice, I think the evidence is against Meta. The evidence against Meta, summarized: Last night, an elim kill got through, giving us information that implicates one of our Hazekillers. The question is whether Meta or Manukos is evil. During the Jon lynch, Jon leveled accusations of collusion against Meta and Araris. I suspect that this was meant as a distancing tactic by Jon, attempting to associate Meta with Araris, the confirmed Thief. Meta's testimony against Jon is not alignment-indicative, because had he testified the other way Araris would have ensured Meta's lynch for lying. Meta was on around turnover as N5 started, and so could have put in the elim kill for Jon to block. He was the only one of the four remaining suspects known to be active around that period. I was on many times during that Day, and I have a habit of checking who else is viewing the page, so that reduces the chances that one of the other three could have viewed undetected. Manukos has established that he views putting in elim kills without posting in the thread at least once as dishonorable. This further reduces that chances that he or a teammate put in an action without posting. While this doesn't directly imply Meta's guilt, if a Hazekiller went bad and Manukos is innocent, that leaves Meta. I'm sorry Meta if you're innocent and I'm making a blunder. If there's a fallacy in my reasoning, don't hesitate to point it out. "Once you eliminate the impossible, whatever remains, no matter how improbable, must be the truth." --Sherlock Holmes 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
manukos Posted June 21, 2017 Report Share Posted June 21, 2017 Ok so here is the thing. I am an idiot , after I declared that i'd block sart the fact that I had to pm the gm totaly sliped my mind. however since I publicly announced it I doubt that sart would indeed make an action and that I belive wouldnt hab implicated our targets since the elims this game have been trying to pull stunts like that the entire game,(for example the first day no-kill and jon's .... whatever he was atempting to do ). I contemplated lying for a min saying that nothing happened but , since I probably lost us the game now at least I could own up to my idiocy As for your marvelus post , I was suspicious of meta from when I returned but I dont know lynching the only other uninjured hazekillee seems like a waste Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steeldancer Posted June 21, 2017 Report Share Posted June 21, 2017 (edited) I have loads of pewter. Stacks of it. Eat my pewter, ventures. And I've taken to just burning my pewter each night. So good luck wearing down my pewter I mourn you, Yitzi. In this game you were my best friend. I'll do a mournful RP once I finish mowing the lawn and (attempting to) pass my drivers test look guys. We really can't afford a mislynch at this point. I'll need to go through and make sure Elenion is 100% trustworthy. Because if he's an elim, and is leading us on... it will cost us the game. I can survive for ages, but that won't be helpful if they'll just keep putting the lynch and kill on me. Edited June 21, 2017 by The Flash Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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