Quick Fix Game 23: You don't want to Play this Game.

[Yitzi2]

4 minutes ago, Seonid said:

I'm...less than enthused about the idea of the double lynch. There may be a way to game the mechanic in favor of the village. But if there is, I can't see it. Any possible iteration of the possibilities seems to me to be a detriment to the village, with the single exception of if the village successfully lynches 2 eliminators at the same time, which would require the cooperation of both eliminators.

I don't think we could even see a situation where we lynch a villager and an eliminator, due to the elim interference with the lynch - and even if we could, it would only be useful if we couldn't lynch the eliminator any other way.

Put simply. If we lynch 2 players at the same time, the only way it is likely to go through is if both are villagers. And that does not help us at all. I'm not sure if this is an indicator that Yitzi is suspicious, or just that the reasoning is bad.

The way I see it, if we lynch 2 suspicious players at the same time, there are a few possibilities:

1. Both are suspicious villagers.  This means that we killed an extra villager, but would probably have lynched him anyway (and wasted another lynch) because he was suspicious.

2. One is an elim.  The elims throw in a last-minute vote to direct it to the others.  Now we have thrown suspicion on two elims (the saved one, and the vote swinger).

3. One is an elim, and the elims have Bad at Math.  The elims use it...now we have a pretty good idea that they have Bad at Math, and anyone who doesn't vote in a cycle where it's used is suspicious.

4. One is an elim.  The elims decide to sacrifice him to avoid suspicion for the vote swinger.  We took out an elim (and a villager we'd otherwise have wasted another lynch on).

5. Both are elims.  The elims lose 2, or lose 1 and soon another 2 due to suspicion.

4 minutes ago, randuir said:

What makes you think it is fairly unlikely that the elims have the "bad-at-math" smedry? We know they didn't have the other vote-manip smedry, but this is one of the powers I'd think there is a decent chance that they might be given tot he elims.

I'm assuming it's random who gets what, except for the librarian probabilities.  @A Joe in the Bush, can you confirm or deny that each character has an equal chance to be a Smedry (other than the reroll if they're also a librarian), regardless of whether they're elims or not?

Edited May 12, 2017 by Yitzi2

[A Joe in the Bush]

2 minutes ago, Yitzi2 said:

I'm assuming it's random who gets what, except for the librarian probabilities.  @A Joe in the Bush, can you confirm or deny that each character has an equal chance to be a Smedry (other than the reroll if they're also a librarian), regardless of whether they're elims or not?

I can neither confirm nor deny that.

A little less than 4 hours left in the cycle boys and girls, send in any last minute order, votes or proposals now!

[DeTess]

19 minutes ago, Yitzi2 said:

I'm assuming it's random who gets what, except for the librarian probabilities.  @A Joe in the Bush, can you confirm or deny that each character has an equal chance to be a Smedry (other than the reroll if they're also a librarian), regardless of whether they're elims or not?

From post-game master-docs I've looked at, and talk in dead-docs and the game design thread, what is often done is to decide certain powers that the village/elims will get in advance. The player division is then done random, as is the division of powers in the elim sub-group and the player sub-group, but in games where the powers are given, not earned, assigning certain powers to the villager and the elims is an important part of balancing the game.

19 minutes ago, Yitzi2 said:

The way I see it, if we lynch 2 suspicious players at the same time, there are a few possibilities:

1. Both are suspicious villagers.  This means that we killed an extra villager, but would probably have lynched him anyway (and wasted another lynch) because he was suspicious.

For the rest, you keep repeating the argument that we would have lynched both suspicious players anyway. If both players are highly suspicious,  I agree. However, as I pointed out, both cloudjumper and Cluny are up for the lynch mostly because they've done almost nothing. More information gained might push us towards other people, since the cases against these two is not particularly strong.

Quote

2. One is an elim.  The elims throw in a last-minute vote to direct it to the others.  Now we have thrown suspicion on two elims.

Regarding last minute votes, I wouldn't be so certain it would be easy to identify an elim interfering over a villager who thinks that a double lynch is a bad idea. I, for example, am seriously considering throwing a vote on one of these two to break the tie, because I believe double-lynching is very risky.

Quote

3. One is an elim, and the elims have Bad at Math.  The elims use it...now we have a pretty good idea that they have Bad at Math, and anyone who doesn't vote in a cycle where it's used is suspicious.

The thing about bad at math is that, unless we go through and lynch whoever was saved (which is not guaranteed with these two), we don't actually know if the elims have it. the elims might even use it to try and get us to lynch the person again, even though he is not  actually an elim.

Quote

4. One is an elim.  The elims decide to sacrifice him to avoid suspicion for the vote swinger.  We took out an elim (and a villager we'd otherwise have wasted another lynch on).

Again, you're assuming we would have gone after the other one just because there is some suspicion now. For example, in LG30 Arinian got lynched twice(he got better the first time), with 4 or 5 cycles in between them. The reason it took so long to re-lynch him was that the case against him was pretty weak to begin with, and more important targets appeared. The fact that he even got re-lynched might have had something to do with elim manipulation. In Lg32, Kipper never got re-lynched after the first time failed.

Quote

5. Both are elims.  The elims lose 2, or lose 1 and soon another 2 due to suspicion.

This is a fairly unlikely optimal case, but you're right, this would be an outcome that is superior for a double lynch.

Edit: I checked, and apparently Arinain's second lynch, though definitely supported by the elims when it was put forward, wasn't initiated by them. The other example still stands though, as does this one as an example of someone not immediately getting relynched.

Edited May 12, 2017 by randuir

[Stick.]

I'm very much not in favour of this double lynch idea because [insert whatever Rand said] plus, sometimes, lynching suspect one and learning their alignment might effect the suspicions we have on suspect two, based on many things. So the point about 'we'll lynch them sooner or later if we're suspicious of them anyway' isn't really valid, I think.

A vote tally, anyone?

[DeTess]

One vote tally for table 3:

Vote tally:

Cluny(2): Drought, Yitzi

Drought(0): Hero

Cloudjumper(2): Hero, ecth

Herowannabe(1): Queensteph

Ecthelion(1): Randuir

Edited May 12, 2017 by randuir
I liked this tag-line more.

[Ecthelion III]

I have a confession to make. I've never actually asked anyone out before. Yet here I am, asking a girl I've barely met.

In the words of the immortal proverb, 'Desperate times call for desperate measures.'

"How about, um, I swing by your house at 7 and we go to the coffee shop and get ice cream and, um, read together?"

Not exactly Cicero, but it will do.

I'm surprised at my own forwardness, and Jemma is too. She giggles. It's the most beautiful sound I've ever heard.

Edited May 12, 2017 by Ecthelion III

[Elbereth]

Drought and whoever else have poked me - I will post properly this cycle. I also have 9 posts in multiquote and am about to go to a Latin final, so that will be in roughly two hours, I expect.  But I do intend to post. 

[Yitzi2]

43 minutes ago, randuir said:

From post-game master-docs I've looked at, and talk in dead-docs and the game design thread, what is often done is to decide certain powers that the village/elims will get in advance. The player division is then done random, as is the division of powers in the elim sub-group and the player sub-group, but in games where the powers are given, not earned, assigning certain powers to the villager and the elims is an important part of balancing the game.

For the rest, you keep repeating the argument that we would have lynched both suspicious players anyway. If both players are highly suspicious,  I agree. However, as I pointed out, both cloudjumper and Cluny are up for the lynch mostly because they've done almost nothing. More information gained might push us towards other people, since the cases against these two is not particularly strong.

This makes sense.  In that case, I agree that the danger of elim manipulation, and the difficulty of telling it from an honest village swing, exceeds the benefit from getting in an effective extra turn.  (If we could be sure that only elims would break the tie, I'd still favor a tie on the theory that it weakens the elims' main strength (the elim kill) while not harming the village's (numbers), but as it stands...) Cluny Cloudjumper

EDIT: Whoops.  Cluny Cloudjumper

Edited May 12, 2017 by Yitzi2

[queensteph]

6 hours ago, Herowannabe said:

To be fair, Queensteph is voting for me. We wouldn't want an incomplete vote tally.

 

I don't mind sharing that cycle 1 I started a PM with Cloudjumper and this cycle I started one with Queensteph. I decided that this game (at least to start out with) I wanted to reach out to newer players who may not be getting many PM invites. So far neither of them has responded, though Cloudjumper has read my PM and I saw him reading the thread, hence my accusation of lurking on him. 

I'm not going to share who, if anyone, has started PMs with me. That's for them to decide whether or not to reveal. 

bolded/underlined is mine, @Herowannabe uh no you didn't ? I didn't get any PM from you...

C1 I PM'd Rand, C2 PM'd Drought.

 

As for the double lynch I don't think it's a good idea because only being Cycle 2 I feel the risk of killing 2 villagers is too great without even gaining that much info since they haven't really posted much. So for that reason Hero, Cloudjumper. I would leave my vote on Hero since I am actually suspicious of him, but in order to keep a double lynch from happening I'll go ahead and just jump on the wagon.

 

[BrightnessRadiant]

52 minutes ago, Ecthelion III said:

I have a confession to make. I've never actually asked anyone out before. Yet here I am, asking a girl I've barely met.

In the words of the immortal proverb, 'Desperate times call for desperate measures.'

"How about, um, I swing by your house at 7 and we go to the coffee shop and get ice cream and, um, read together?"

Not exactly Cicero, but it will do.

I'm surprised at my own forwardness, and Jemma is too. She giggles. It's the most beautiful sound I've ever heard.

Awww he's so nervous and spontaneous! I like him already! He was now waiting anxiously for a response, and looked as if he might pass out if she didn't say something soon. "That sounds like a lot of fun. Let's do it." Jemma took out a piece of paper and wrote down her address. 

321 fitz-simmons Ln. She added a note to the bottom of the paper that read:

See you soon! <3

________________________________________________

Okay so going through the thread so far I think that Cloudjumper is more suspicious than cluny and personally I'd rather not have a double lynch unless we have better information to go on. I can see where a double lynch could be helpful but I think it should wait until we have more suspicions to act on.

Also @randuir hey!  that's siblingism lol...could you imagine how fun that would be though! It should happen sometime! 

Edited May 12, 2017 by BrightnessRadiant
changing the RP color :P

[DeTess]

16 minutes ago, BrightnessRadiant said:

Also @randuir hey!  that's siblingism lol...could you imagine how fun that would be though! It should happen sometime! 

Exactly, which is why I think it's likely if two of the three of you started as elims. Don't worry though, Unless I actually notice something suspicious from you guys, this will just remain a crackpot theory that won't influence my voting.

Edited May 12, 2017 by randuir
Syntax error

[BrightnessRadiant]

6 minutes ago, randuir said:

Exactly, which is why I think it's likely if two of the three of you started as elims. Don't worry though, Unless I actually notice something suspicious from you guys, this will just remain a crackpot theory that won't influence my voting.

that's a relief  To be honest I like to start out suspecting my siblings cuz they are both very smart lol

[TheMightyLopen]

Okay, well, Cycle is about to end, and the lynch is basically decided looks like. I did do a quick readthrough of Cycle 1, but I didn't notice anything that really stood out to me as suspicious regarding the BB lynch.

So far, my only reads are village reads on Unodus and randuir. Unodus, because he's sounded like a villager in our PM(although I do hope he'll post game thoughts in the thread...), and randuir because he figured out why there was no elim kill instead of going after me for being Tripped when there was no kill(and he's been very active, though I'm not sure if that's really alignment indicative in his case).

If cloudjumper is evil, I think I'd suspect yitzi a little, for pushing for a double lynch on cloud and cluny. Because he may not have wanted to defend cloudjumper outright, but if he could get a kill on a villager alongside the death of a teammate, he might be able to do that without looking too suspicious. Of course, he backed off of that idea and is now voting on cloudjumper, but it could be a bus.

If cloudjumper is village, I'm not sure who I'd suspect. I'd have to go over things again with that in mind.

Phew. 5 minutes left. >>

[queensteph]

I won't be on for the next turn mostly, expecting to be on my honeymoon  

[Ecthelion III]

Sorry, guys, I haven't been participating as much to the lynch discussion. That's because I have much more important things to worry about...

321 Fitz-Simmons Ln, here I come!

[ImpossibleBowler]

I cannot make my usual gut-reading this cycle because the main vote-ee has not posted, AT ALL

[A Joe in the Bush]

And, that is time. No further actions or votes please, tune back in in an hour or Cycle 3.

[A Joe in the Bush]

Cycle 3: What's With the Lopen Clan and Matrimony?

Are ghosts like, real? Like, I know there Curators at Alexandria are kind of like ghosts? But are actual ghosts real things?

See, I’m asking because while i was spying on Jemma and Aaron before their wedding. I saw this ghostly wizard squirrel alternating between staring at Jemma and crying, and staring at Aaron and screaming profanities. It was the weirdest thing I’ve ever seen, and I live in Nalhalla. That’s saying a lot. Of course, then i got distracted by Alex and Celia showing up. Apparently they’re Jemma’s sisters? I did not know that.

But their meeting was adorable! Hugging, and congratulating each other on their engagements, and preparing for their double wedding. And then my cousin, Masternamer Smedry showed up, walking into the doorframe at least 3 times before he got into the room. And then Celia got scary. She excused herself, grabbed Master namer and Aaron, and dragged them both outside.

I have never heard such threats of death and disfigurement, and public humiliation, and something called Gancho’ing? But yeah. Celia tore into them, making them promise to never hurt her sisters, and to always be true to them. Really sweet of them all.

I didn’t get to see what happened next though, now that’s I’d confirmed where the 5 of them were, i had to send a signal to my recruiter that the coast was clear. My first real Hushlander Mission! I didn’t get to do much other than play lookout duty and distract a Sir Fodder as the others made sure that Stick was alone, then shot her with a Coma stick. They sent me a warning, and I did my part in directing Sir Fodder towards the alley where Stick was in a Coma.

It worked perfectly! He had enough time to find her, realize what had happened, and pick her up, before a crowd came around and saw him with her! It didn’t take much for us to whip up the crowd into a frenzy, ‘find’ the coma stick that ‘sir Fodder’ had used on Stick, and have the book collector Cluny shoot Sir Fodder with the Coma stick for revenge. And then we turned over all the evidence of what we had done to the Knights of Crystalia, pointing to Cluny as the Hushlander Librarian who had organized the events to remove Sir Fodder and Stick, and they detained him for us.

Three gone! I can’t believe they pulled that off. They got three high ranking officials put away just by taking out Stick!

Now, I want to write more, but I have to go, The weddings are starting soon. Man, what’s a girl got to do to find a spouse around here anyway?

---

Queen Steph and Droughtbringer have gotten Married!
BrightnessRadiant and Ecthellion III have gotten Married!
Cloudjumper was Lynched! He was a Freeworlder Knight
Cluny the Scourge was Killed by Knights He was a  Freeworlder
_stick_   (Stick) was killed by Hushlanders She was a Freeworlder Librarian!

Votes:
Cluny the Scourge(1): Drought
Cloudjumper:(5) Hero, Ecthelion, Yitzi, Steph, Brightness
Ecthelion(1): Randuir

The Cycle ends in:

Remember, each cycle is a total of 25 hours long. 24 hours of gameplay, and an hour of me working.

Singles, Dinosaurs, and other inclusive descriptors.

1. Magestar   (Ratsegam the Bold) A man who was Tagged
2. Seonid   (Shem Smedry) The master of the Archives.
3. Yitzi2   (Jack) A Videogame Engineer
4. Ornstein   (Pavelock) A Physiologist who trains locks.
5. Herowannabe   (Herbert) a Micropachycephalosaurus (type of dinosaur) scholar who delights in regaling people with obscure trivia, usually about his own species.
6. Randuir   (Rand) Not the Chosen One of an Ancient world ending Prophesy.
7. OrlokTsubodai   (Orlok) An average citizen who does his best to ignore politics.
8. Elbereth   (Ella) A cute, innocent little girl)
9. Jedal   (Jedal)  a Guy with good tastes.

Husbands, Wives, and No Dinosaurs (yet)

1. The MightyLopen   (Celia) A Girl swept off her feet.
2. Unodus   (Agent Deuce) A detective, skilled at Seeping girls off their feet.
3. Queensteph   (Alex) A Girl who loves, and is loved by, Master Namer Smedry
4. DroughtBringer   (Master Namer Smedry) A Smedry with a talent for being around Alex
5. BrightnessRadiant   (Jemma) A Completely not Evil Lover
6. Ecthelion III   (Aaron) A very loving man

Dead/Detained/In Coma’s

1. Sart   (Thomas) Killed by Knights C1: Freeworlder
2. Bridge Boy   (Squirrelmort) Lynched C1: Freeworlder Smedry: Looking Ugly
3. Cloudjumper   (Fodder) Lynched Cycle 2: Freeworlder Knight
4. Cluny the Scourge   (Cluny) Killed by Knights C2: Freeworlder
5. _stick_   (Stick) Killed by Hushlanders C2: Freeworlder Librarian!

Edited May 14, 2017 by Alvron

[queensteph]

maybe we were raised to be romantics 

[Elbereth]

On 5/10/2017 at 4:18 PM, Bridge Boy said:

I do agree with a day 1 lynch as well. Killing people is always helpful!

In a completely platonic non-evil way, of course.

...I am confused about how killing people is usually romantic? 

On 5/10/2017 at 4:51 PM, DroughtBringer said:

We can't just lynch everyone at once...there is way too much librarian control that can be put into place to stop us from actually achieving what we want with that. It could end really, really badly,

Also confused at the use of the words 'librarian control' here, rather than 'Hushlander control'. I particularly don't know what to think of it given that Drought's revealed he is a librarian. I don't think I read any more evil on him for it, but it's interesting? 

People already covered Randuir's comment about GM PMs at length, so skipping that. (Yay for community people calling out things we don't like! I approve!)

On 5/11/2017 at 4:30 AM, OrlokTsubodai said:

Apologies, all. I've had a busy day with work, and the cycle started at midnight my time.

I'll look at Bridgeboy, and indeed the rest of the game properly, as soon as I have time. At a glance, though, I'm wary that there are parallels with the Ripple Debacle. As I recall, Rippleglyf mixed up the names of the village and eliminator teams, and was lynched for it, as a villager. That's not to say the present situation is the same - I haven't had time to look at it properly, but newer players should be aware that this sort of mistake can be made without being alignment indicative.

The difference - though it no longer makes a difference, obviously - is that in that game, 'skaa' was usually the name of the village in previous games, and she messed up because here it was the eliminators. Whereas here there isn't a precedent of either side being village, and Freeworlders being village makes significantly more sense. 

On 5/11/2017 at 7:05 AM, Herowannabe said:

Putting this in blue because it represent my out of game opinion, unrelated to my role/alignment for this game, but I feel that asking someone to refer specific information from their GM PM like this is on the edges of breaking the spirit of the game. We could ask the same thing of everyone, trying to find someone who slips up by not posting the exact phrasing that is used in someone else's GM PM but that doesn't sound particularly fun to me. @Bridge Boy I for one would not hold it against you in the slightest if you chose to simply say "in an effort to keep to the spirit of the games, I chose not to reveal that information."  

*claps*

These are from the end of C1, after the turn ended so I had to c-p them into a doc. 

Brightness:

Quote

hmmm suspicions....it's so hard to figure anything right on D1 but i think a lynch is the way to go cuz with a quick fix there isn't much time, right? This is my first QF! yay! i've officially been in one of each game now! I am suspicious of Bridge Boy but it could have been an honest mistake as he said...i would feel bad to lynch a villager on the first day just for that ....there isn't much else to go on though...i will think about it and post again later!

Correct, not much time, as covered above. And don't feel bad about lynching villagers, honestly. It's not fun, particularly D1, but it's part of life and someone has to die. A lot of the time that's a villager, unfortunately. Hopefully, interactions based on those lynches can lead us to eliminators faster than they can kill us off. 

Seonid:

Quote

On the Bridge Boy subject, though, there's not much I have to say. It's an odd thing to write, and an even odder thing to lynch over. The Ripple Effect is still too recent in my mind for me to be willing to lynch off of it, though. I also find Stick's thoughts on marriage and who might be involved in it to be very odd - why would eliminators be much more likely to marry than villagers? Sure, any Smedry's among them would want to spread their talents out among their peers, but doing so exposes them to public scrutiny in a way that might not be the case otherwise.

Seonid... you do realise that was a year and a half ago, right?  

Ecth:

Quote

I find it rather suspicious that Orlok, who had already accrued a vote, would stand up for Bridge Boy's--the leading candidate's--suspicious behavior.

This likely isn't going to change anything, but just putting it out there.

...Why is that suspicious? Seriously, why. I would think that if you're an eliminator you'd be more likely to cast suspicion on the person who has more votes than you in hopes that you don't get any more. Not less. Unless you're insinuating they're teammates, but Orlok defending him... isn't really a reason for that. 

I'm confused. @Ecthelion III what is suspicious about this interaction, exactly? 

On 5/11/2017 at 8:43 AM, Ornstein said:

Hello Everyone! I IS HERE!!!!

 

That what I do! Post, but not contribute!

....That is not a thing to be proud of, you're aware? I'm minded to vote on you just for that attitude, because it's really not helpful to anyone. 

22 hours ago, DroughtBringer said:

I've noticed that @Elbereth hasn't really been saying much in the thread...

So this is my encouragement to come say something! I also understand that you are GMing a game that looks like it take a lot of time and effort, but I have an idea of how much time and effort it takes, I'm GMing one that is practically the same game as that one, so I think you should be able to spend some time and come join us.

Sorry.  Didn't quite have time to post before turnover happened, unfortunately. >> 

22 hours ago, queensteph said:

Edit:

@DroughtBringer I believe Elbereth was dealing with finals and said she'd be active after today.

I will be.  Though Drought is correct that I said I'd be active starting today (or more specifically, last cycle), so shame on me. 

21 hours ago, Herowannabe said:

Drought is as good a candidate as any I have right now, so why not? No point in waiting, cycles are only 24 hours long so the sooner we get votes cast for someone/anyone the better we'll be able to analyze and discuss them. So in short, I want to get the voting going. And it's already working! See? You've already cast a vote on me!

This. Out of the 20 people in this game, it's only Cycle 3 and a quarter are now dead. None of whom are evil. Assuming 4-5 elims, (4 starting, given they have a convert, so 5 now?), that puts us in an already unfomcortable position. Three deaths a cycle... if we mislynch (or the Knights miskill) two more cycles, the game will be over. Though... I suppose the village could still win with fewer players, since the Knights still exist. Regardless, though, the elims controlling 2/3 of the kills at least at that point would mean the game is very, very close to over. 

Waiting is not a good idea in this game.  

13 hours ago, DroughtBringer said:

Ah, now that it is cycle 2, I have some plans that we should talk about, as a village, and see how we want to do this. 

So I figure that if we request the info of who made PMs with who last cycle, we should be able to narrow down the list of possible elims by seeing if they made PMs with each other, as an elim would not want to waste a PM making one with another elim, as they could easily just use their doc to communicate. 

I understand if people don't want to use this idea, but I thought I would propose it.

I won't reveal who (if anyone) PMed me yet, but I failed to make one last cycle.

I had this thought as well, and actually intended to bring it up in a similar manner.  Mostly to cause discussion, though, as I don't particularly like it. It reminds me of QF16, I think, when all the information (in that case, items) were on the table and things were arranged so that the elims were somewhat screwed and kind of went insane (sorry Joe ) because there was nothing they could do about it. 

That said, it's not nearly so extreme a case as that one was, and could much more easily be countered. I'm perfectly willing to reveal my contacts (everyone can probably guess at least the C1 PM I made , and C2 I honestly just forgot), but I do not think that pressure should be put on anyone who doesn't. 

11 hours ago, Herowannabe said:

I don't mind sharing that cycle 1 I started a PM with Cloudjumper and this cycle I started one with Queensteph. I decided that this game (at least to start out with) I wanted to reach out to newer players who may not be getting many PM invites. So far neither of them has responded, though Cloudjumper has read my PM and I saw him reading the thread, hence my accusation of lurking on him. 

I'd just point out that neither of those players are actually new.  Queensteph played in my first game, a year and a half ago, and Cloud joined in... MR13? QF15, sorry. Since this is QF23, that makes that 8 months ago now. Just saying. 

5 hours ago, randuir said:

From post-game master-docs I've looked at, and talk in dead-docs and the game design thread, what is often done is to decide certain powers that the village/elims will get in advance. The player division is then done random, as is the division of powers in the elim sub-group and the player sub-group, but in games where the powers are given, not earned, assigning certain powers to the villager and the elims is an important part of balancing the game.

It depends? A lot of times I do players first, and then a distribution of roles based on player. (LG31, for instance, I picked the evil team first and then what roles should go on it.) 

4 hours ago, BrightnessRadiant said:

Okay so going through the thread so far I think that Cloudjumper is more suspicious than cluny and personally I'd rather not have a double lynch unless we have better information to go on. I can see where a double lynch could be helpful but I think it should wait until we have more suspicions to act on.

I'm a bit confused about this - Cloud hasn't posted at all. The only piece of evidence we have is Hero's word that he's lurked (which... honestly, given his previous behavior, I don't think it's terribly alignment-indicative, although irritating >>). So you can say that you aren't reading evil on Cluny, sure, but I'm not sure Cloud has done enough to warrant being called 'more suspicious' than someone else. 

---

Right. So those are my past thoughts. As for the present...

As covered above, we're already getting tight for time, which isn't good. Right now, I'm tempted to vote for either Ecthelion (due to illogically casting suspicion, particularly on a good player - it's a stretch to think he's doing so in order to cast suspicion on Orlok and get him lynched, but everything I have right now is a stretch), or Ornstein (as covered above, due to the unhelpful attitude). 

I'll withhold my vote for a few hours and see if either respond or if anything else sticks out to me, but will vote on one or the other (or someone else if I find someone else worth voting for) by the time I go to sleep tonight. 

[Ecthelion III]

@Elbereth Because, in my opinion, Village Orlok wouldn't defend Bridge Boy (who was seemingly inevitably about to be lynched) without providing an alternate candidate. Eliminator Orlok, on the other hand, knew Bridge Boy's alignment and had something to gain (trust) by defending him.

Wow. Last night was crazy and... well, let me just tell you from the beginning.

--LAST NIGHT--

Where were we? Ah, yes, 321 Fitz-Simmons Lane. I pulled up alongside the curb and steeled myself for The Doorstep. Focus, I told myself, you got this. I looked down at Jemma's note and the little postscript at the bottom: See you soon <3

knock, knock, knock

[Elbereth]

Ah. Interesting. I would note that village!Orlok also didn't really have time, given health concerns that he clearly stated. That does make significantly more sense as reasoning, though, so for the moment my vote will go on Ornstein. 

[Herowannabe]

Just popping in to say that I won't be able to post much of anything this cycle. I am running an X-Wing miniatures game tournament tomorrow, and by the time it finishes the cycle will be over and my brain will be fried anyway. As such I'm going to refrain from voting this cycle, though if anyone desperately needs my attention for anything I'll try to check the site in about 6 (ugh) hours when I wake up. 

Real quick before I go, @queensteph

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bolded/underlined is mine, @Herowannabe uh no you didn't ? I didn't get any PM from you...

So I just checked and I DID create that PM and sent it to... absolutely nobody. Either I somehow forgot to add recipients or there was a glitch with my phone or the site and it never reached anyone other than me. It did send, which was weird, just I am the only one who can see it. I just sent a PM to @A Joe in the Bush to see if he will allow me to add you (Queensteph) to the PM, at which point you can confirm that I'm not lying about this. 

[DeTess]

4 hours ago, Ecthelion III said:

@Elbereth Because, in my opinion, Village Orlok wouldn't defend Bridge Boy (who was seemingly inevitably about to be lynched) without providing an alternate candidate. Eliminator Orlok, on the other hand, knew Bridge Boy's alignment and had something to gain (trust) by defending him.

Orlok made the post defending bridge boy about halfway through the cycle. A that point only 3 votes had been cast against bridge boy, which isn't much if you take into account that there are 20 people in this game, So I don't see how it was 'inevitable' that Bridge boy would get lynched at that point. Orlok even explained why he didn't have an alternate candidate in the post:

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Apologies, all. I've had a busy day with work, and the cycle started at midnight my time.

I'll look at Bridgeboy, and indeed the rest of the game properly, as soon as I have time. At a glance, though, I'm wary that there are parallels with the Ripple Debacle. As I recall, Rippleglyf mixed up the names of the village and eliminator teams, and was lynched for it, as a villager. That's not to say the present situation is the same - I haven't had time to look at it properly, but newer players should be aware that this sort of mistake can be made without being alignment indicative.

Anyway, I'm still hoping to get some more useful information, but as it currently stands I'm considering voting on you again, Ecthelion.

[TheMightyLopen]

Okay, it's crazy late, so I'll keep this brief.

I was really hoping we'd have got at least one elim with the combination of the lynch and the Knights kill. I'm kind of worried that the Knights might have an elim in their midst, and now that we know cloud was a villager Knight, I think it would be a good idea for the Knights to take a close look at each other. Hopefully the new Knight is another villager at least. Anyways, since we haven't killed an elim, El is right about the possibility that we haven't got long left. So we need to make each lynch count. I didn't have hardly any time today(or rather, tonight ), mostly because of LG33's rollover, and I was finishing a game with my bro until just a short while ago.  But I'm hoping I'll have more time to commit to analysis tomorrow.

Like I mentioned last Cycle, I'm somewhat trusting of randuir and Unodus, and I read El's long multi-quote post as villager-y, so I'd be against lynching them. Other than them, I don't have any village reads on players worth mentioning or that I'd defend against lynching. As far as suspects go, I'm currently a little suspicious of Mage and Hero, basically just gut/tone reads, and I'd like to take a look over Ecth and Ornstein's posts as well, given 2 of my village reads are suspicious of them. I did make a PM with Ornstein last Cycle, but only shortly before the Cycle ended, so he never responded(hasn't said anything this Cycle either). I'll try my best to do a full analysis of all of those players tomorrow, and decide my vote. Oh, and if we're saying who we've made PM's with, I made a group PM with my sisters(queensteph and BrightnessRadiant, in case anyone didn't know ) on the first Cycle. Haven't made one this Cycle yet.

And now I should really sleep. Goodnight.