Mid-Range Game 21: The Battle for Nebrask

[ImpossibleBowler]

I Agree. I shall vote for Stick.

[Elenion]

I was the third to point the finger at Stick last cycle, and I'll admit I was surprised when I saw that we had ended up lynching Straw on far less evidence than we had against Stick. As Aman said, there were multiple points where ties were broken in Stick's favor. For that reason I'm inclined to vote Stick, but the last two posts have done the same thing. Instead, I'll vote Joe for reasoning below. As far as the votes on Straw went, I trust Brightness based on gut, Lopen seems okay because of how open he was about contacting DA, and HH was being HH and choosing a bandwagon based on gut read. That leaves Joe. Although I'm more suspicious of Stick than Joe, a Joe vote is better for discussion.

[DeTess]

6 hours ago, Seonid said:

If you didn't kill DA, what did you do instead? I'm not as sanguine about your innocence as Aman seems to be. Not to say I'm convinced you're guilty,  but I don't think that this line of pressure ought to be given up on yet.

Honestly, I think the likelihood of someone scanning you with a Line of Making last night is pretty low, but in case someone did,  I'd like to have a pubic statement from you to compare.

Seonid, I don't think it would be a good idea for Lopen to publicly state the line he made last cycle, if he's a villager. The reason being that if he didn't draw a line of warding last cycle, he'll be drawing one this cycle, leaving him vulnerable to the kill if no one covers him with a line of forbiddance. If he drew a line of warding last cycle, then he would likely be drawing one next cycle, again leaving him vulnerable. If you absolutely believe that him making that claim to you is necessary, I suggest you PM him about it.

Edited April 20, 2017 by randuir

[Orlok Tsubodai]

Apologies, everyone. I'm feeling unwell this evening, and am not up to posting.

[BrightnessRadiant]

Okay, wow, sad that two villagers are now dead...especially a non-rithmatist 

8 hours ago, Amanuensis said:

I do want more information from @BrightnessRadiant on why she was suspicious of Straw, exactly, since she didn't really explain why, only that she didn't think he was being helpful enough.

First I will address this..I voted for Straw because he seemed to be posting enough to stay active, but not to include much thoughts on anything important like who he suspected, or what ideas he agree/disagreed with. It just seemed like no one else was either more or less suspicious than him, and so i figured i'd keep my vote on him. I do feel I may have been a bit too hasty in my choice and may not have thought it through very well...but I was trying my best. I hope that answers your question. I will try to be more careful with my vote this cycle to ensure that we do not lynch another innocent.

Okay so, I did a super extensive re-read of the entire game up to this point and i would like to share my thought so far.

I would like to say who I feel is village and who possibly Elims and state why I feel this way. For village I would say Lopen, Randuir, Frozen MInt, and possibly Aman and Orlok. As for Elims...possibly Joe, and Seonid.

Okay here we go for reasons...in Lopen's case I feel like he was being set up. I know him well enough to know that he wouldn't be so stupid as to reveal that he knew Darkness Ascendant's role and than kill/have him killed...also if he was going to do something that made him look guilty already, why further incriminate himself by voting for a villager to be lynched. In my mind he was either set up on purpose or he just got unlucky in circumstances. Where Randuir is concerned, I feel like my paranoia of him was just me misunderstanding his actions, and after my careful re-read of his posts I feel pretty confident that he is village. He recommended that we try and protect warding villagers by using Lines of Forbiddance which I think is a good idea...and Frozen Mint also agreed with him which makes me feel like leaning village for her as well. For Aman, he has helped, continually, to throw out important and useful thoughts for the village to consider. If he was an Elim I doubt he would be so very helpful...even if he was trying to gain our trust. And finally for the villagers..Orlok did suggest that we should lynch someone on D1 which could be considered an Elim move, but the way he explained his thoughts on the matter I agreed with him that a D1 lynch would give us some info to go on, and he also emphasized the importance of speedily identifying and catching the Elims because of the threat of conversions if we lost too many villagers by playing slow and lynching anyone.

Now for the Elims..I said I suspect Joe, and this is because he seems to be providing/agreeing to a lot of info and advice that would benefit the village, but not so much that it would hurt him as an Elim, providing him with enough "village" type speak that we wouldn't suspect him. I don't have a lot to go on for him so I won't vote just yet...especially considering that I don't want to make another quick and assumed vote so early on in the cycle...but I do want you to know @A Joe in the Bush that I've got my eye on you.  Lastly I said I suspect Seonid, and that is because he remained so quiet during the first round, claiming to be watching and waiting, and than suddenly appears to accuse Lopen of being an Elim, after, to me, what seems like a very poor attempt at a framing. @Seonid I would like to know if you feel differently about Lopen after reading my post...or if you still suspect him.

Many of the other players I have little, to no, idea of where they stand so I will wait to see what they do for the rest of this cycle.

Oh! yeah...i also would like to thank @TheMightyLopen and @Elenion for sticking up for me! I didn't know that Straw was village and I'm sorry my vote on him got an innocent killed.

Edited April 20, 2017 by BrightnessRadiant
edit

[Amanuensis]

7 hours ago, _Stick_ said:

@Amanuensis sorry, I have a habit of speaking like that...In an earlier game, I did something similar, assuming that the elims certainly didn't have a scanner on their team and it almost got me lynched >>

Do you know which game that was? I'd like to go back and read it to compare, because I really do have mixed feelings about you. A lot of your tone makes me think you're village, but your initial comments on players making plans + expression of paranoia towards me + multiple lynch diversions + comment about the elims having known DA's role make me question your motives. Having something more to work with would be nice.

7 hours ago, Seonid said:

@TheMightyLopen

Honestly, I think the likelihood of someone scanning you with a Line of Making last night is pretty low, but in case someone did, I'd like to have a pubic statement from you to compare.

As for my lack of activity last cycle,  I've barely had enough time to read everything, let alone respond or analyze. In the next 2 weeks, I'm quitting my job, moving to a new city,  and have three papers to write in the meantime. Sorry this isn't #1 priority,  especially on d1 - where my particular skills are nearly useless.

Can you explain why you think someone scanning Lopen is unlikely? He's among the "highest-priority" players in this game, in terms of danger from either side. I wouldn't say he's the most likely player to have been checked last night, but I'd put him in the top 10% at least, if any scanners didn't have particular suspicions to act on.

No worries on priorities. It's just really nice for us to have information like this because without it, myself (and a few others, I'm sure) get suspicious when people lurk. I do hope you can get more involved soon, though.

56 minutes ago, OrlokTsubodai said:

Apologies, everyone. I'm feeling unwell this evening, and am not up to posting.

Ugh. I feel your pain, brother. I'm currently dealing with a terrible sore throat and a particularly viscous case of congestion. I hope you feel better soon.

19 minutes ago, BrightnessRadiant said:

First I will address this..I voted for Straw because he seemed to be posting enough to stay active, but not to include much thoughts on anything important like who he suspected, or what ideas he agree/disagreed with. It just seemed like no one else was either more or less suspicious than him, and so i figured i'd keep my vote on him. I do feel I may have been a bit too hasty in my choice and may not have thought it through very well...but I was trying my best. I hope that answers your question. I will try to be more careful with my vote this cycle to ensure that we do not lynch another innocent.

...

For Aman, he has helped, continually, to throw out important and useful thoughts for the village to consider. If he was an Elim I doubt he would be so very helpful...even if he was trying to gain our trust.

Since this is your first game, it's understandable that you didn't expect that from Straw. I, personally, was very happy that he was saying more than he usually does / being so cooperative. I debated for a long time trying to save him / sway votes off of him, but had niggling thoughts about Stick that I wanted to see where things would go. If I had been on the last few hours I think I might have tried to tie the votes, but that might just me wishful thinking now that I know Straw is village. As for thinking yourself hasty, try not to beat yourself up about it. Mislynches happen all the time, and there definitely could have been a worse death than a low-active Blackmailer for the village. What really matters is if Straw's death leads us to an elim, so that his death won't have been in vain.

As for your opinion on my behavior, I would do the same thing if I was evil. Not sure if I'd be able to do it as well as when I'm village, but there's been a lot of games in the past where I convinced villagers I was on their side when I wasn't, and in nearly every scenario it inevitably cost them the game. So, basically, even if I seem helpful, don't trust me completely. Not until you have hard evidence, at least, which since I'm not a Non-Rithmatist or an Acid-Specialist, I don't think is possible this game.

The embassy I worked at just closed, so now that I've finished replying to everything I want to right now, I'm going to go back and read HH's posts like I promised, to see if I can learn anything more. Hopefully I can finish it before I have to make my way home.

Edited April 20, 2017 by Amanuensis

[Frozen Mint]

After going over the last cycle's post and getting my head around things, I'm leaning village for Brightness and Orlok. Their efforts to help seem to be straightforward and genuine. I'm leaning village for Len as well (not as strongly as I am for Brightness and Orlok, but leaning village all the same), since he came up with the coin flip plan.

I'm paranoid about Aman being an elim, just because his writing style comes off as maybe trying to be too helpful, like he's trying really hard to prove to everyone that he's village. On the other hand, his posts are actually helpful. But I had the same conflicted feelings during the last game I played as well. So I'm wary of him, but I wouldn't say that I have an elim read... 

I want to see where the thread goes this cycle, but for now, I'm going to place my vote on Stick. Both Stick and Straw seem slightly suspicious to me. Straw for posting and being active, but without adding much content to the discussion. I'm not going to place a vote on him (yet), because, vaguely recalling the games I've played in the past, he just seems to play this way in general. But I'm going to keep an eye on him, because I think it's an awfully easy way for an elim to be active while putting themselves at minimum risk. Stick stands out to me more, because after rereading the posts from the first cycle, she seems to contradict herself. First she says that she suspects that one of the people who had posted so far is a Forgotten. After Orlok questions her, she clarifies that eliminators often propose ideas that seem helpful but actually aren't, but she hasn't seen any plans like this posted thus far. But then why be suspicious that someone who had posted is a Forgotten? Aman questions her after that, and she says that she likes to keep her eye on players who seem the most helpful, but it sounds like backtracking at this point. I feel like her posts, taken individually, bring up some solid points. However, taken together, I can't help feeling that something is off.

[Amanuensis]

Okay, so I went back and gathered all of HH's posts that weren't solely RP and pasted them here, so that people can easily reference them while I try to analyze them. Let's see how this goes.

Nothing really in these two posts other than him making a mistake with the rules. There is a chance, however, that he thinks there are vanilla players because he is a vanilla Forgotten. @Sart, is it possible that with the Forgotten being a "Special Role" they could possibly not have a Specialization? If so, this might be a big clue to HH being evil. If not, then I think this is non-indicative of his alignment.

So here we have a contradiction between his words and his actions, although he later explains, after being voted on by Rand, that he was waiting for Stick to respond first before he made a decision. I'm willing to take that at face value, however, it's possible he was avoiding voting on Stick because they're teammates (which fits in him tying the lynch by later voting for Straw).

Hence this post. He "excepts" her defense, which really wasn't much of a defense, imo. She just said she can't really defend from a gut read, that she'd prefer that PK vote for her for something more solid reasoning than being a moderately active poster, and that she would change her vote last minute from PK to Straw only if she was an elim. This ties in with the part she said "I'm fine with getting lynched if it gives helpful information (I don't think it will) but I'm not discounting the possibility that it was a bluff, and that she had the guarantee someone else on her team would intervene. The question, then, would be why potentially sacrifice the integrity of a teammate to save Stick? My guess would be if this theory is true is that she's a valuable role, but aside from Assassin, which I doubt they have unless @Sart says that the write up will not inform us if a player is saved by Lines of Forbiddence. Otherwise we'd certainly have seen another death, or, at least, an attempt. 

Not much in that first post, as it's just a response to Orlok saying a vote with thought and reason is significantly more useful than just a bandwagon. In the end, however, he joins the Straw bandwagon because of gut and he wants Straw to say more. The thing that gets me here is that HH then calls for those who haven't voted to do so. Now I agree with that completely, in that the more people vote, the more we can learn, but given this tied the vote between Straw and Stick, I could see it as a wishful attempt to get a villager to intervene by joining him, or even setting up an ally to join. While on the surface it seems unwise to have multiple elims vote for the same person, that very same thing is expected enough that an elim might become less suspicious for voting with an ally. Case and point, Lopen doubting that Straw and I were both elims last turn because we both ended up voting for the same person.

3 minutes ago, Frozen Mint said:

After going over the last cycle's post and getting my head around things, I'm leaning village for Brightness and Orlok. Their efforts to help seem to be straightforward and genuine. I'm leaning village for Len as well (not as strongly as I am for Brightness and Orlok, but leaning village all the same), since he came up with the coin flip plan.

I'm paranoid about Aman being an elim, just because his writing style comes off as maybe trying to be too helpful, like he's trying really hard to prove to everyone that he's village. On the other hand, his posts are actually helpful. But I had the same conflicted feelings during the last game I played as well. So I'm wary of him, but I wouldn't say that I have an elim read... 

I want to see where the thread goes this cycle, but for now, I'm going to place my vote on Stick. Both Stick and Straw seem slightly suspicious to me. Straw for posting and being active, but without adding much content to the discussion. I'm not going to place a vote on him (yet), because, vaguely recalling the games I've played in the past, he just seems to play this way in general. But I'm going to keep an eye on him, because I think it's an awfully easy way for an elim to be active while putting themselves at minimum risk. Stick stands out to me more, because after rereading the posts from the first cycle, she seems to contradict herself. First she says that she suspects that one of the people who had posted so far is a Forgotten. After Orlok questions her, she clarifies that eliminators often propose ideas that seem helpful but actually aren't, but she hasn't seen any plans like this posted thus far. But then why be suspicious that someone who had posted is a Forgotten? Aman questions her after that, and she says that she likes to keep her eye on players who seem the most helpful, but it sounds like backtracking at this point. I feel like her posts, taken individually, bring up some solid points. However, taken together, I can't help feeling that something is off.

Thank you for posting so that I didn't have to edit this into my last one. Couple comments though. Generally villagers also try hard to prove their village, as it saves their team from wasting time lynching them. Nothing wrong with a healthy paranoia of me though, as much as it tends to bother me. 

Also, Straw is dead he was just lynched. Did you mean someone else, or did you just not notice?

[Sart]

Rule Clarifications:

Quote

If a kill is blocked by a Line of Forbbidance, will it be revealed in the write-up?

No, it will not.

Quote

Do all the Forgotten have a Specialization.

Yes. Yes, they do.

[Amanuensis]

6 minutes ago, Sart said:

Rule Clarifications:

No, it will not.

Yes. Yes, they do.

If someone who protects themselves by Lines of Forbiddence gets attacked, are they notified? What if someone is protected by someone else; is the Rithmatist who drew the line alerted, or the player?

Also, there goes that theory about HH being a vanilla Forgotten.

Edited April 20, 2017 by Amanuensis

[Hemalurgic Headshot]

I just realized that in that post where I accepted Stick's defense that I typed "excepted". 

And furthermore, with discussion,

I have a suspicion that the single Elim (wait, is there only on Elim? I might be confusing this with LG32, where there was only one Inquisitor to start) so far ( @Sart, when there is a conversion, will it be mentioned in the write up?) is not someone who is being accused, like Stick or Joe (of course, either could be the Elim, I don't know). A wise Elim would probably take a to-the-side approach until he/she gets an ally.

Edit Again: Maybe someone like Ornstein or Paranoid King?

Edited April 21, 2017 by Hemalurgic_Headshot

[A Joe in the Bush]

4 hours ago, Elenion said:

I was the third to point the finger at Stick last cycle, and I'll admit I was surprised when I saw that we had ended up lynching Straw on far less evidence than we had against Stick. As Aman said, there were multiple points where ties were broken in Stick's favor. For that reason I'm inclined to vote Stick, but the last two posts have done the same thing. Instead, I'll vote Joe for reasoning below. As far as the votes on Straw went, I trust Brightness based on gut, Lopen seems okay because of how open he was about contacting DA, and HH was being HH and choosing a bandwagon based on gut read. That leaves Joe. Although I'm more suspicious of Stick than Joe, a Joe vote is better for discussion.

Just to restate for my own understanding. Stick and straw were tied to be lynched, and I broke the tie in Stck's favor, allowing her to survive. Several other players had also done this. You trust the Lopen family because the sister is a new player and the brother told everyone he knew DA's role before DA died, and you trust HH because he was being HH, which can be a valid excuse for Village!HH and Elim!HH.

I do not have a reason to be trusted by you yet, so you're voting for me over stick, so as to not cause a bandwagon on stick and kill discussion? Aren't you famous for bandwagoning? and also by voting for me, aren't you doing what you're assuming me of doing by trying to distract from the stick lynch?

Here, i wasn't defending stick, and still aren't. _Stick_. If she's an eliminator, that was not knowledge i had. I don't know her alignment.

3 hours ago, BrightnessRadiant said:

Okay, wow, sad that two villagers are now dead...especially a non-rithmatist 

First I will address this..I voted for Straw because he seemed to be posting enough to stay active, but not to include much thoughts on anything important like who he suspected, or what ideas he agree/disagreed with. It just seemed like no one else was either more or less suspicious than him, and so i figured i'd keep my vote on him. I do feel I may have been a bit too hasty in my choice and may not have thought it through very well...but I was trying my best. I hope that answers your question. I will try to be more careful with my vote this cycle to ensure that we do not lynch another innocent.

Okay so, I did a super extensive re-read of the entire game up to this point and i would like to share my thought so far.

I would like to say who I feel is village and who possibly Elims and state why I feel this way. For village I would say Lopen, Randuir, Frozen MInt, and possibly Aman and Orlok. As for Elims...possibly Joe, and Seonid.

Okay here we go for reasons...in Lopen's case I feel like he was being set up. I know him well enough to know that he wouldn't be so stupid as to reveal that he knew Darkness Ascendant's role and than kill/have him killed...also if he was going to do something that made him look guilty already, why further incriminate himself by voting for a villager to be lynched. In my mind he was either set up on purpose or he just got unlucky in circumstances. Where Randuir is concerned, I feel like my paranoia of him was just me misunderstanding his actions, and after my careful re-read of his posts I feel pretty confident that he is village. He recommended that we try and protect warding villagers by using Lines of Forbiddance which I think is a good idea...and Frozen Mint also agreed with him which makes me feel like leaning village for her as well. For Aman, he has helped, continually, to throw out important and useful thoughts for the village to consider. If he was an Elim I doubt he would be so very helpful...even if he was trying to gain our trust. And finally for the villagers..Orlok did suggest that we should lynch someone on D1 which could be considered an Elim move, but the way he explained his thoughts on the matter I agreed with him that a D1 lynch would give us some info to go on, and he also emphasized the importance of speedily identifying and catching the Elims because of the threat of conversions if we lost too many villagers by playing slow and lynching anyone.

Now for the Elims..I said I suspect Joe, and this is because he seems to be providing/agreeing to a lot of info and advice that would benefit the village, but not so much that it would hurt him as an Elim, providing him with enough "village" type speak that we wouldn't suspect him. I don't have a lot to go on for him so I won't vote just yet...especially considering that I don't want to make another quick and assumed vote so early on in the cycle...but I do want you to know @A Joe in the Bush that I've got my eye on you.  Lastly I said I suspect Seonid, and that is because he remained so quiet during the first round, claiming to be watching and waiting, and than suddenly appears to accuse Lopen of being an Elim, after, to me, what seems like a very poor attempt at a framing. @Seonid I would like to know if you feel differently about Lopen after reading my post...or if you still suspect him.

Many of the other players I have little, to no, idea of where they stand so I will wait to see what they do for the rest of this cycle.

Oh! yeah...i also would like to thank @TheMightyLopen and @Elenion for sticking up for me! I didn't know that Straw was village and I'm sorry my vote on him got an innocent killed.

I'm just too busy to actively make plans right now, lol. By the time i first got online after the game had started, all the good plans had already been offered.

[Seonid]

4 hours ago, randuir said:

Seonid, I don't think it would be a good idea for Lopen to publicly state the line he made last cycle, if he's a villager. The reason being that if he didn't draw a line of warding last cycle, he'll be drawing one this cycle, leaving him vulnerable to the kill if no one covers him with a line of forbiddance. If he drew a line of warding last cycle, then he would likely be drawing one next cycle, again leaving him vulnerable. If you absolutely believe that him making that claim to you is necessary, I suggest you PM him about it.

That's easily remedied - he can reflip his coin after he reveals,  so that his new actions are unpredictable. I did think this through before I called for it.

But if he is still unwilling to reveal in public, I invite him to PM me about it.

3 hours ago, BrightnessRadiant said:

Okay, wow, sad that two villagers are now dead...especially a non-rithmatist 

First I will address this..I voted for Straw because he seemed to be posting enough to stay active, but not to include much thoughts on anything important like who he suspected, or what ideas he agree/disagreed with. It just seemed like no one else was either more or less suspicious than him, and so i figured i'd keep my vote on him. I do feel I may have been a bit too hasty in my choice and may not have thought it through very well...but I was trying my best. I hope that answers your question. I will try to be more careful with my vote this cycle to ensure that we do not lynch another innocent.

Okay so, I did a super extensive re-read of the entire game up to this point and i would like to share my thought so far.

I would like to say who I feel is village and who possibly Elims and state why I feel this way. For village I would say Lopen, Randuir, Frozen MInt, and possibly Aman and Orlok. As for Elims...possibly Joe, and Seonid.

Okay here we go for reasons...in Lopen's case I feel like he was being set up. I know him well enough to know that he wouldn't be so stupid as to reveal that he knew Darkness Ascendant's role and than kill/have him killed...also if he was going to do something that made him look guilty already, why further incriminate himself by voting for a villager to be lynched. In my mind he was either set up on purpose or he just got unlucky in circumstances. Where Randuir is concerned, I feel like my paranoia of him was just me misunderstanding his actions, and after my careful re-read of his posts I feel pretty confident that he is village. He recommended that we try and protect warding villagers by using Lines of Forbiddance which I think is a good idea...and Frozen Mint also agreed with him which makes me feel like leaning village for her as well. For Aman, he has helped, continually, to throw out important and useful thoughts for the village to consider. If he was an Elim I doubt he would be so very helpful...even if he was trying to gain our trust. And finally for the villagers..Orlok did suggest that we should lynch someone on D1 which could be considered an Elim move, but the way he explained his thoughts on the matter I agreed with him that a D1 lynch would give us some info to go on, and he also emphasized the importance of speedily identifying and catching the Elims because of the threat of conversions if we lost too many villagers by playing slow and lynching anyone.

Now for the Elims..I said I suspect Joe, and this is because he seems to be providing/agreeing to a lot of info and advice that would benefit the village, but not so much that it would hurt him as an Elim, providing him with enough "village" type speak that we wouldn't suspect him. I don't have a lot to go on for him so I won't vote just yet...especially considering that I don't want to make another quick and assumed vote so early on in the cycle...but I do want you to know @A Joe in the Bush that I've got my eye on you.  Lastly I said I suspect Seonid, and that is because he remained so quiet during the first round, claiming to be watching and waiting, and than suddenly appears to accuse Lopen of being an Elim, after, to me, what seems like a very poor attempt at a framing. @Seonid I would like to know if you feel differently about Lopen after reading my post...or if you still suspect him.

Many of the other players I have little, to no, idea of where they stand so I will wait to see what they do for the rest of this cycle.

Oh! yeah...i also would like to thank @TheMightyLopen and @Elenion for sticking up for me! I didn't know that Straw was village and I'm sorry my vote on him got an innocent killed.

I'm actually not hugely suspicious of Lopen. But I'm not willing to simply clear him yet either.  Your defense and Aman's notwithstanding, I'd like to hear from Lopen himself before I let this go.

3 hours ago, Amanuensis said:

Do you know which game that was? I'd like to go back and read it to compare, because I really do have mixed feelings about you. A lot of your tone makes me think you're village, but your initial comments on players making plans + expression of paranoia towards me + multiple lynch diversions + comment about the elims having known DA's role make me question your motives. Having something more to work with would be nice.

Can you explain why you think someone scanning Lopen is unlikely? He's among the "highest-priority" players in this game, in terms of danger from either side. I wouldn't say he's the most likely player to have been checked last night, but I'd put him in the top 10% at least, if any scanners didn't have particular suspicions to act on.

No worries on priorities. It's just really nice for us to have information like this because without it, myself (and a few others, I'm sure) get suspicious when people lurk. I do hope you can get more involved soon, though.

Ugh. I feel your pain, brother. I'm currently dealing with a terrible sore throat and a particularly viscous case of congestion. I hope you feel better soon.

Since this is your first game, it's understandable that you didn't expect that from Straw. I, personally, was very happy that he was saying more than he usually does / being so cooperative. I debated for a long time trying to save him / sway votes off of him, but had niggling thoughts about Stick that I wanted to see where things would go. If I had been on the last few hours I think I might have tried to tie the votes, but that might just me wishful thinking now that I know Straw is village. As for thinking yourself hasty, try not to beat yourself up about it. Mislynches happen all the time, and there definitely could have been a worse death than a low-active Blackmailer for the village. What really matters is if Straw's death leads us to an elim, so that his death won't have been in vain.

As for your opinion on my behavior, I would do the same thing if I was evil. Not sure if I'd be able to do it as well as when I'm village, but there's been a lot of games in the past where I convinced villagers I was on their side when I wasn't, and in nearly every scenario it inevitably cost them the game. So, basically, even if I seem helpful, don't trust me completely. Not until you have hard evidence, at least, which since I'm not a Non-Rithmatist or an Acid-Specialist, I don't think is possible this game.

The embassy I worked at just closed, so now that I've finished replying to everything I want to right now, I'm going to go back and read HH's posts like I promised, to see if I can learn anything more. Hopefully I can finish it before I have to make my way home.

Perhaps you're right about Lopen being a higher priority scan target than I initially thought. Frankly, I'd rather anyone who scanned him not reveal yet until after he responds.

[Jondesu]

24 minutes ago, Seonid said:

That's easily remedied - he can reflip his coin after he reveals,  so that his new actions are unpredictable. I did think this through before I called for it.

But if he is still unwilling to reveal in public, I invite him to PM me about it.

I have to say, I considered this factor too, but remember, you can't do the same line twice in a row.  If he did a Line of Warding, he'll be vulnerable this cycle, so revealing that would be a bad idea. If he did something else, it's less of an issue, but I still think revealing that publicly is a risk we don't necessarily need to take.  

I'm constantly wary of Aman's analysis and have to be careful I don't just agree without critically thinking it through, but I do agree it's likely Lopen wouldn't have killed DA in these circumstances.  Not only does it run a great risk of making him seem guilty, but he probably would have tried to manipulate DA instead, to gain some powers for himself or Elim teammates. I agree that hearing from Lopen about this is important, but I just wanted to add my two cents there.

I'm going to go through the thread now and try to do some more analysis if I can, so hopefully I'll post again or edit this post in a little while.

[TheMightyLopen]

22 hours ago, A Joe in the Bush said:

Look all you want Lopen. I had no idea or clue that DA was a Non rithamist. I hadn't caught that. And I'm not trying to cast suspicion on you, i was literally asking you if you had any leads.

Also, you suspect Silver because i said i had a village read on him? In that case I have a village read on you as well. =P (I actually do btw.)

You asking whether I killed DA and reminding everyone that I knew his role kind of seems like casting suspicion on me. I don't think it's all that suspicious by itself, but considering I already had a bad read on you, it's not helping your case.

11 hours ago, Seonid said:

@TheMightyLopen

If you didn't kill DA, what did you do instead? I'm not as sanguine about your innocence as Aman seems to be. Not to say I'm convinced you're guilty,  but I don't think that this line of pressure ought to be given up on yet.

Honestly, I think the likelihood of someone scanning you with a Line of Making last night is pretty low, but in case someone did,  I'd like to have a pubic statement from you to compare.

As for my lack of activity last cycle,  I've barely had enough time to read everything, let alone respond or analyze. In the next 2 weeks, I'm quitting my job, moving to a new city,  and have three papers to write in the meantime. Sorry this isn't #1 priority,  especially on d1 - where my particular skills are nearly useless.

What exactly is the point of revealing that? If someone targeted me with a Line of Making, all they'd have to do is say "Lopen did not make the kill" and that'd be enough, wouldn't it? Unless you think I'd ask a teammate to do that, but that wouldn't be a very good idea...

If it helps any, I've told Brightness Radiant what I did last Cycle, so she can confirm that I told her that if you want. I'd really rather not say in the thread, and I don't trust you, so I don't want to tell you in a PM either. I don't want you to waste your time focusing on me though, so if you insist on knowing what I did last Cycle, PM me and I'll tell you.

Thanks for explaining. That sounds exhausting... >.<

2 hours ago, Hemalurgic_Headshot said:

I just realized that in that post where I accepted Stick's defense that I typed "excepted". 

And furthermore, with discussion,

I have a suspicion that the single Elim (wait, is there only on Elim? I might be confusing this with LG32, where there was only one Inquisitor to start) so far ( @Sart, when there is a conversion, will it be mentioned in the write up?) is not someone who is being accused, like Stick or Joe (of course, either could be the Elim, I don't know). A wise Elim would probably take a to-the-side approach until he/she gets an ally.

Edit Again: Maybe someone like Ornstein or Paranoid King?

I'm pretty sure there'd be more than one eliminator, since it'd be almost impossible for any conversions to happen if they only have 1 player. I think almost everyone has agreed that 3 or 4 are the most likely. I'm guessing 3, but it's not a bad idea to assume the worst with things like this.

I'm voting on Joe. I was not able to go through the thread like I wanted to, so this is just based on my gut read of him so far, with him not voting initially, then voting straw once I accused him of defending him, then sorta casting suspicion on me this Cycle because of DA's death(plus he says he thinks I'm a villager, and that tends to make me more paranoid of players, especially when they don't give much reasoning), and now he's voting Stick because someone accused him of defending her. All things considered, I'm not totally convinced Joe is evil, I know I sometimes tunnel pretty hard, but I'm going with my gut on this one.

As for Stick, I am less sure of her village-ness after this Cycle, because I don't like some of the things she said, but I still feel like she's more likely village. She's always been pretty open with her opinions, so her saying things like "obviously" and such don't make me as suspicious as it might with other players.

Don't forget to send in your Actions!!! (Inactivity deaths are the worst...)

[Jondesu]

Ok, a couple thoughts from last cycle and this one.

Last cycle we started with a vote on Straw from Silverblade, for "not being helpful".  Perhaps a fair criticism, but not one that indicates alignment in my experience so far, and I find it very annoying that this bandwagon ended up winning despite all the other discussion that formed, with so little evidence behind it.  I don't think this implicates Silverblade, btw, just that we got ourselves locked in on just a few people (Stick and Straw mostly, with Silverblade also being tied for the lynch at one point IIRC). Hence, I want to put more of my focus on those who have been allowed to be ignored.

I read back through the last cycle, and most people's posts were the usual D1 stuff: strategies (well-intentioned, as far as I can tell, even if some were bad, though none of that should clear anyone), poke votes, etc.  I can see why people reacted to Straw, Silverblade, and Stick's posts, but honestly?  I think we focused too much on things like being quiet (Straw was right, his activity was normal for him) and suggesting plans that might not be that good.  Honestly, we need to look elsewhere, like people who just lurk amongst us and toe the line of activity without being suspicious, or who are quick to jump on bandwagons.  In that light, one players posts did stand out to me: Paranoid King.

Specifically, this post (can't actually quote from a closed thread, so I'll @Paranoid King so you see this):

Quote

Fair enough. I'll try and build up some votes on someone, see how they react. Joe. Stick. I notice that Elims tend to be active in thread, but not too active. I haven't played for a while, but you seem to fit that pattern.

PK, how is this a helpful pattern of voting?  It lets you "put pressure" on people, sure, but in a nonsensical way (who can defend themselves against something like that?) and it lets you seem to be involved without really having to justify much.  Granted, I haven't played with you much (at all?), so maybe this is normal for you, but it strikes me as something an Elim would try.  I'd like to see why you think voting on people in order to build up votes on them is helpful, especially since that's a good tactic to avoid giving us information about you except that you're not trying to analyze and vote appropriately.

---

Kyle lay on the ground panting as the last of the chalklings were destroyed, the breach in the Circle repaired finally, and they could rest.  The chaos was nothing new to him, but the feeling of both relief and numbness after a battle was a familiar and yet always foreign sensation.  He could never fully wrap his head around the end of a battle, and having to go back to "normal".

As he blinked away the adrenaline and tried to clear his head, his heart sank as he saw the dead body of K'Sarben laying in the camp, no Rithmatic lines around him.  At first he'd thought the man had just been driven away from his defenses and swarmed, but he quickly realized that no chalklings had attacked him. K'Sarben (what kind of name was that?) had been stabbed, and no chalkling could hold a knife, of course.

Then chaos truly set it, a sight to behold after a battle such as that. The fanatic voice of Regem gleefully exclaiming about the Forgotten was cut off suddenly by a savage and quick attack from Ryth, though Kyle had noticed that there were several voices encouraging Regem's death as well. It was over so fast, he hadn't even risen to his feet before the group was dispersing from around the two dead bodies, some of the others barely giving them a glance.  Kyle looked around a bit incredulously, then pushed himself upright and forced himself to walk over to the quartermaster's tent, fetching a couple of shovels.

"Let's get their bodies in the ground and pay our respects. Neither of them deserved this, and the least we can do is give them a proper rest."

His eyes glinted sharply.

"And then put the body of whoever killed K'Sarben in the ground next to them.  Or better yet, just toss it to the chalklings."

Edited April 21, 2017 by Jondesu

[BrightnessRadiant]

5 hours ago, Amanuensis said:

Since this is your first game, it's understandable that you didn't expect that from Straw. I, personally, was very happy that he was saying more than he usually does / being so cooperative. I debated for a long time trying to save him / sway votes off of him, but had niggling thoughts about Stick that I wanted to see where things would go. If I had been on the last few hours I think I might have tried to tie the votes, but that might just me wishful thinking now that I know Straw is village. As for thinking yourself hasty, try not to beat yourself up about it. Mislynches happen all the time, and there definitely could have been a worse death than a low-active Blackmailer for the village. What really matters is if Straw's death leads us to an elim, so that his death won't have been in vain.

As for your opinion on my behavior, I would do the same thing if I was evil. Not sure if I'd be able to do it as well as when I'm village, but there's been a lot of games in the past where I convinced villagers I was on their side when I wasn't, and in nearly every scenario it inevitably cost them the game. So, basically, even if I seem helpful, don't trust me completely. Not until you have hard evidence, at least, which since I'm not a Non-Rithmatist or an Acid-Specialist, I don't think is possible this game.

I forgot to mention in my last post that you standing up for Straw in more than one post was another reason that I trust you a little...but don't worry...I never trusted you very much  I've heard the tales of Aman from my siblings and know that you are a good player and very capable of sounding good while being evil  lol

@Frozen Mint thanks for the vote of confidence! 

I haven't tried any RP yet so here goes...

_____________________________________________

Amelia sat on the ground staring at her very shaky, chalk covered hands. Dead? Their first battle with the wild chalklings, and already two dead? But no...that wasn't right. It was the Forgotten. She could feel it. They were among them. She scrutinized every detail she had seen since meeting every member of their motley crew. But which one? Dusts! Their could be multiple Forgotten among them! She could hardly look at her teammates anymore without suspicion. She had been the one to find K'Sarben's dead body, lying in a pool of his own blood. The poor guy wasn't even a Rithmatist, apparently. How could they have sent him into battle! Her heart ached for him, and her stomach churned at the memory of him. She had also witnessed a brutal murder right before her eyes. She hadn't liked Regem, the fool worshipped the Forgotten, for pete's sake. But that didn't mean she had wanted to see him killed! How could Ryth have done that!? It was so cold-hearted! Could he be a Forgotten?...The Forgotten. Her mind drifted back to them. Amelia was flooded with a sense of anger, and determination. She stood, clenching both hands into solid fists. She must find the Forgotten, and make them pay. She whispered to herself, " The innocent WILL be avenged." She looked over to see Kyle fetching some shovels. She started towards him. At least someone else cared.

_____________________________________________

@Jondesu I was already writing my RP when I saw yours....hope you don't mind being in mine 

If anyone else would like to RP with Amelia, I'm up for that! 

Edited April 21, 2017 by BrightnessRadiant
spelling mistake in my RP lol

[Elenion]

3 hours ago, A Joe in the Bush said:

I do not have a reason to be trusted by you yet, so you're voting for me over stick, so as to not cause a bandwagon on stick and kill discussion? Aren't you famous for bandwagoning? and also by voting for me, aren't you doing what you're assuming me of doing by trying to distract from the stick lynch?

Correct. I may be famous for bandwagoning, but I try to either use my bandwagoning to cause discussion or hold off on joining the bandwagon until the discussion can occur. In this case I'm doing the latter, and I think it has contributed to the increasing amount of analysis after the beginning of this cycle. I plan on joining the vote pile on Stick--like I said in the post in which I voted on you, I suspect her more than you--it just was too early in the cycle for a bandwagon as large as what my vote would have made it. As for distracting from the Stick lynch, this isn't like last cycle where the voting was on the edge of the knife. The Stick lynch is almost certainly happening, bar anything crazy, so what I'm doing is making sure we end up with a good bandwagon on a good suspect instead of a bad bandwagon that kills discussion.

Now that I look over how the voting is going, it's probably time for me to stop stimulating the discussion on Joe and put my money where my mouth is when it comes to suspicion based on evidence. Joe. Stick.

 

Isaac "The Hammer" Jones sidled into the dining tent, a massive, canvas structure whose walls were printed with the names and seals of the different United Isles. It was evening; dinner was long past and most of the people had dispersed. A few still remained and and around the dining tent, loitering, chatting, or otherwise killing time. Isaac Jones, however, was here for a far superior purpose. He flipped a coin to one of the cooks, who responded by tossing him a bottle of his favorite JinDo wine. Jones sat down, uncorking the bottle, and took a small swig to wet his mouth. A battle with the Chalklings really took something out of a man.

Looking around, Jones spotted a Rithmatist leaning against the tent wall nearby. It was Joel, or at least that's what the others called him. And since Jones wasn't a greedy man, just a proud and vain one, he flipped his go-to cook another coin and said "Joel over there looks a little thirsty. How about getting him a bottle?"

"Hey Joel, want to join me for a drink? Eases the mind as well as the body." @A Joe in the Bush

Edited April 21, 2017 by Elenion
Accidentally called Joe's character Joe instead of Joel

[A Joe in the Bush]

Numbers added by Me

2 hours ago, TheMightyLopen said:

1. You asking whether I killed DA and reminding everyone that I knew his role kind of seems like casting suspicion on me. I don't think it's all that suspicious by itself, but considering I already had a bad read on you, it's not helping your case.

<SNIP>

I'm voting on Joe. I was not able to go through the thread like I wanted to, so this is just based on my gut read of him so far, 2. with him not voting initially, 3.then voting straw once I accused him of defending him, 4. then sorta casting suspicion on me this Cycle because of DA's death(5.plus he says he thinks I'm a villager, and that tends to make me more paranoid of players, especially when they don't give much reasoning), and 6. now he's voting Stick because someone accused him of defending her.

1. A, it amused me to just straight up ask if you killed him. I play these games to amuse myself. B. I wanted to see if you would ignore the question or not. And if not, i wanted to see how you approach/react to the question. Most elims don't like to directly, blatantly lie. It actually makes people uncomfortable. I'm uncertain on how much that strategy would work on you, but i figured, why not?

2. I did not vote initially, because initially, i didn't see the time restraints. Then orlok posted, and i started to, but stopped again after acid specialists were brought up. I still don't see time restraints. Normally, on day 1, i only post to cause discussion, but discussion was already going without my intervention.

3. I wasn't defending Straw, you accused me of defending him, i proved you wrong. Shrug. not much to say here.

4. Again, was not trying to cast suspicion. i don't need to cast suspicion. Literally everything anyone says casts suspicion on someone.

5. Sorry, but we both have gut reads of eachother right now. they happen to be opposite. I'm not suspicious of you, you're suspicious of me. Both of us have some reasoning to back those reads up.

6. That is Mostly True. But it's also an informative lynch in general. shrug that wasn't my reason for voting for her, but it still works.

7. I'm wasting time defending myself. All of my posts today have been defending myself instead of actually looking for eliminators. I'mma do that for the rest of the cycle. I'll defend myself next cycle.

12 minutes ago, Elenion said:

Correct. I may be famous for bandwagoning, but I try to either use my bandwagoning to cause discussion or hold off on joining the bandwagon until the discussion can occur. In this case I'm doing the latter, and I think it has contributed to the increasing amount of analysis after the beginning of this cycle. I plan on joining the vote pile on Stick--like I said in the post in which I voted on you, I suspect her more than you--it just was too early in the cycle for a bandwagon as large as what my vote would have made it. As for distracting from the Stick lynch, this isn't like last cycle where the voting was on the edge of the knife. The Stick lynch is almost certainly happening, bar anything crazy, so what I'm doing is making sure we end up with a good bandwagon on a good suspect instead of a bad bandwagon that kills discussion.

Now that I look over how the voting is going, it's probably time for me to stop stimulating the discussion on Joe and put my money where my mouth is when it comes to suspicion based on evidence. Joe. Stick.

 

Isaac "The Hammer" Jones sidled into the dining tent, a massive, canvas structure whose walls were printed with the names and seals of the different United Isles. It was evening; dinner was long past and most of the people had dispersed. A few still remained and and around the dining tent, loitering, chatting, or otherwise killing time. Isaac Jones, however, was here for a far superior purpose. He flipped a coin to one of the cooks, who responded by tossing him a bottle of his favorite JinDo wine. Jones sat down, uncorking the bottle, and took a small swig to wet his mouth. A battle with the Chalklings really took something out of a man.

Looking around, Jones spotted a Rithmatist leaning against the tent wall nearby. It was Joel, or at least that's what the others called him. And since Jones wasn't a greedy man, just a proud and vain one, he flipped his go-to cook another coin and said "Joel over there looks a little thirsty. How about getting him a bottle?"

"Hey Joel, want to join me for a drink? Eases the mind as well as the body." @A Joe in the Bush

Acceptable reasoning i suppose. 

---

Joel blearily opened his eyes, at the sound of his name. Upon realizing he was dozing, he shot up to attention, furtively glancing around, trying to remember what he was supposed to be doing. Was he on watch? Luckily, instead of seeing the seargent, or whoever was in command, all he was was Jones, sitting at a table with a bottle of some foreign wine. the cook was approaching with another bottle, offering it to him. Joel hesitantly took the bottle, and made his way over to Jones.

"Thanks for the kind offer Jones." He sat down, slowly uncorking the bottle. "It's been a while since I've had a drink. What are we drinking to?"

[Hemalurgic Headshot]

What Gunther saw, he could not say... but he saw something. The other thing was... Gunther couldn't speak. At least not for a sentence. When he did speak, it was booming a single word out over the next two miles. It was useful when he... stepped... into a room of fighting people to yell "STOP", but why would he want to step up to someone and blast "POODLE"?

Horatio looked at the dead human. He looked very... sad? Perhaps it was because he was dead. The other dead human did not look as sad, rather stabbed. Horatio picked some chalk dust off himself. Now that the fight was over, he had no use for Squigly, Bob, and... what was that one called? Anyways, Gunther was too slow to bother to clean up after himself, so there was chalk all over. Horatio wandered over to the camp boundary. Beyond that barrier of protective chalk lurked hordes of vicious wild chalklings, hungry for... human flesh? Probably all flesh, since they don't have any. His reverie complete, he scampered over to Gunther and climbed up to his shoulder, Horatio's favorite spot. A real vantage point it was.

[Stick.]

I wake up and find like five votes on myself. Can't say it wasn't expected >> 

PK: because Lopen defended me

Orinstein: agreed with PK

Frozen Mint: *summarises my posts and says they're suspicion worthy  

Joe: because lynching me would give helpful info

Len: because I shouldn't have escaped the lynch last cycle like I did. Also, bandwagon.

Bleh.

@Amanuensis AG3, I think

The way I see it, last cycle was the perfect scenario for the elims to insure that the lynch only targets villagers for C1 and 2. As I had only one or two more votes than Straw did, it couldn't have been hard to them to just swing the lynch on Straw, painting a picture that suggested that 'my elim teammates' did that to save me. Only, it was pretty obvious that if Straw turned out to be a villager (which the elims knew he would), I'd be targeted next. If I were really an elim, the straw lynch would be nothing more than delaying my own death from C1 to C2. Not to mention the person (i.e Joe) who voted on Straw and broke the tie in my favour would be kept an eye on if that were the case. The elims wouldn't risk all that only to have their teammate get lynched the next cycle. 

That being said, HH(this new colour thing is annoying. Took me three tries to get they right). You were the one who tied the votes in the first place, allowing this to fall into motion. The elims knew the village wasn't likely to let C1 pass with a no-lynch, so whoever broke the tie would earn suspicion from the village. So now they have three possible cycles of village-only lynches(including C1)! Yay. 

Also, to the people who said they'd get helpful info from the Straw lynch, what helpful info did you get?

Edited April 21, 2017 by _Stick_
Mix ups

[Silverblade5]

Leaving for a five hour bus ride to Grand Junction for a band trip. 

[DeTess]

I've done a reread of the thread, and will now give some opinions about some of the players.

First up is Elenion. He came up with the coin-flipping idea, and then modified it to be pretty robust and tamper-proof. I don't think an Elim would have done that. Nothing else from his posts particularly stands out at this time. Therefore I've got a village read on him as well.

As for Aman, his posts seem to be his usual brand of heavy-duty analysis. Given that that's something he's well known to do, I doubt he'd give it up if he was an Elim. That having been said, I've seen nothing that I particularly disagree with, or that struck me as being attempts to manipulate public opinion in nefarious ways, so I've got him as tentatively village.

I'd like to have more posts from SilverBlade5 before I form an opinion on him. He seems to act similarly to other games I've played with him, but given his rather minimalistic style that doesn't say very much. There is something I'd like to say about his first post, though:

Quote

Idea: we primarily exercise two lines. If you aren't able to draw a line of warding, protect those who currently are.

Any attempts to try and control where lines of forbiddance go strike me as somewhat suspicious, as its something the elims would try to do to increase their chances of success. I'm somewhat suspicious of SB5 because of this.

I don't have much news to add to the discussion around Stick, and I might end up voting on her (skip to the end of this post if you want to know). Th things that strik me as most suspicious are her attempt to spread paranoia in C1, and her surety of the circumstances of DA's death. Her most recent defense seems just a bit on the far-fetched side of things (though not impossible, it would require a very sneaky or lucky Elim team to orchestrate the situation she describes).

Up next is Seonid. I'd like to hear a bit more form him as well. His C1 post wasn't particularly instructive regarding his alignment, and his focus on Lopen on C2 didn't help his case much either. Given that he said that he's rather busy arranging to move house and whatnot, I'm willing to give him a pass, for now.

So, up next is Jondesu. He voted on me, and I'm village, so he must therefore be evil. Case closed.

Well, not really, actually. Jondesu hasn't been particularly active in C1, but he warned us about that beforehand, so that's not something I'll hold against him. In C2, he seems to be back to his usual level of activity, though he doesn't say much that I can use to try and guess his alignment. He mostly talks about his peristent weariness of some players, but he also brings up a good point about Paranoid King. More on that later. for now, I've got him as Neutral.

I could probably write quite a bit about HH. However, I'd be basically repeating what I said in C1, and what Aman has said about him in C2, so I won't bother. For now, I'm still suspicious of him, for the reasons outlined by me and Amanuensis.

Orlok has posted a lot in C1 (and very little on C2, but he has valid excuses). His point about the village really running against the clock here was important, though I'd have liked to see him present some ideas to stretch the deadline, not just state that there is one. Overall he has made some good points about the possibility of dictatorship and Stick's paranoia-inducing comment. however, none of these are things I wouldn't have expected him to say if he was an elim, so for now I've got a neutral read on him. If stick does prove to be evil, that'll switch to a village read.

I'll finish this with the remaining players at a later point, as I feel my attention slipping. In case I don't get around to it, my other village read is Brightness radiant, and I'm also somewhat suspicious of paranoid king for similar reasons as Jondesu. For now I'm voting stick.

 

 

[Stick.]

 

8 minutes ago, randuir said:

so for now I've got a neutral read on him. If stick does prove to be evil, that'll switch to a village read.

And if I'm not?

[DeTess]

1 hour ago, _Stick_ said:

And if I'm not?

It remains neutral, and might switch to elim if his actions warrant it.