Mid-Range Game 21: The Battle for Nebrask

[BrightnessRadiant]

21 hours ago, Amanuensis said:

Didn't say this in the sign up thread, but welcome, Brightness! I saw you're one of Lopen's siblings. I think that makes you the third or fourth he's gotten to play one of these games (I remember Steph and Biggo, and feel like there's another I'm missing...)

What are you confused about, exactly? If you ask I'm sure myself or someone else can help you out. As for Stick saying that... it really depends. An eliminator might say that if it's all villagers making plans, or if one of their teammates is doing it, the first either to make others question the plan-makers motives, the latter to curry them some favor later if they outlive said teammate (by saying something like "I told you so"). Whether or not Stick herself would think of something like that is hard to say, though based on her bringing up MR18, I'm leaning that it's a result of legitimate paranoia.

As for your vote on Straw... as you said in blue text, there's extenuating circumstances for you just posting now, whereas with Straw, low-activity is normal for him, which is why I tried to nudge him into the spotlight a bit. While his responses weren't the most informative thing ever, they were, at least, more than I'm used to with him, so I'm willing to give him some leeway with hopes that he'll keep it up. My original point is, try not to beat yourself up about hypocrisy. I reckon that your post is more helpful to me than you think. That being said, be careful with double posting. In a scenario like that, where you have more to add but no one else has responded, just edit your old post with a disclaimer (if you look back in some of my previous posts, you'll see me skipping a line and starting a paragraph with "EDIT:"

Thanks for the welcome Aman! You have a good memory!  All four of us love Sanderson's books so it wasn't that hard for Lopen to get us to play. I waited for a while to play because I didn't want to see spoilers before I read more of the books, but now that I've read quite a few of them, I thought I'd give it a shot. Thanks for the offer to help when I'm confused. I think I'm starting to get the hang of things now, but I will keep your offer in mind for later.  As far as Stick is concerned, I feel like she is a villager. I'm not completely convinced, but I'm not suspicious enough to vote on her either. I think I will keep my vote on Straw, unless someone else catches my eye, or until Straw does something to change my mind. Thanks for being supportive of my first post, and I'm glad you thought it was helpful.

@TheMightyLopen Thanks. I'm glad you think I'm a villager,,,cause I am. 

@A Joe in the Bush Thanks! I'm glad you thought my post was helpful too!

@randuir I'm kinda curious as to why you would say you're suspicious of Stick, but then vote for Hemalurgic_Headshot intead. Didn't you accuse him of doing the same thing? If stick is an Elim then I would feel a bit suspicious of you. You say she is suspicious, but then you keep the vote from swinging over to her. Why?

Hey villagers! Don't forget to make your Line before it's too late! If we don't take action then the Elims will get us pretty quick! Don't forget that Sart said if you don't make your Lines two cycles in a row then you will die...I don't know about you, but getting devoured by wild chalklings doesn't sound like a fun way to go! 

Also, I want to bring up the fact that a lot of people don't want a D1 lynch to happen, but I think it is really necessary to finding the Elims as quickly as we can. As several people have pointed out, time is of the essence. It's not that I really want someone to die, it just seems like the best course of action in this situation. For gathering more info, and taking a shot at getting rid of an Elim.

I guess that's all my thoughts for now!

[Jondesu]

As usual for D1, I don't have any strong suspicions, and the plans I saw proposed seemed to be genuine, even those that weren't really good ones, so I'm not particularly suspicious of those suggesting them. Len's plan is needlessly complex, for instance, but doesn't help the Elims that I can tell, and is proposed with the right idea in mind. I'm wary of Aman, Lopen, and Len simply because I have to be, but nothing stands out in their posts.

Right now, I'm going to place my vote on Randuir, for the same thing @BrightnessRadiant brought up: why did you put your vote on HH after talking so much about your suspicions of Stick, @randuir?

----

Kyle jumped up from his seated position when the cry went out that chalklings had broken through, and charged towards the front lines. Other Rithmatists were setting up ther defenses and sending chalklings and Lines of Vigor out into the enemy horde, and he didn't hesitate to do the same. He swept his chalk out expertly, forming his Circle of Warding first, then quickly settling on just two bindpoints to stabilize it. If he didn't start getting attacks off soon, no amount of defense would be worth anything. He did add a Line of Forbiddance in each of his additional Circles of Warding to add some stability, then began sketching chalklings. He had a fondness for wolves, and had often put together packs of wolf chalklings that he'd found would even sometimes work together like a true pack, though he didn't fully understand how. He put only minimal detail into many of them, focusing on quantity, but after the first group was off, he drew a few with great detail and even some armor, and drew chains attaching them to the bindpoints of his anchoring circles. They would protect his circle better than more anchors would have, since his opponent wasn't going to be firing Lines of Vigor back at him. Speaking of which, he knelt down and drew several quick Lines of Vigor, aimed away from his own chalklings and instead toward the waves of wild chalklings that were swarming the defenses of his fellow Rithmatists. 

[A Joe in the Bush]

21 hours ago, Amanuensis said:

I'd quote / respond to Joe but I don't really see anything notable right now. He didn't really say anything about me at all this time, which could mean he learned his lesson from when he made a similar post in LG30 and set me off with his comments. I know you said you're done for the day, Joe, but is there a specific reason you're avoiding commenting on me?

I didn't comment on you because i didn't see anything to comment on I guess. if you want i can go and reread all your posts and try to build a case against you, but i didn't see anything on my first read through.

18 hours ago, TheMightyLopen said:

Response to @A Joe in the Bush, with his words in bold:

"I do like the pairing system, and would have supported it if Elenion hadn't brought up the coin plan. of course, there's the problem of the Elims getting partnered together, or of them all deciding to ward the same night, so that they can weaken the defenses all at once on a certain night. how would you have dealt with those problems Lopen?"

I had not suggested a way for all of the players to be paired, and it's very unlikely that they would be randomly paired if there's as few of them as everyone is assuming. I doubt anyone would suggest any way besides randomly, and if they did, that could tell us something. Every plan comes with risks, but if you don't make any moves, the eliminators can win because of passive village play. There has to be the opportunity for them to slip up.

"Lopen brings up good points. and then he poke votes seonid. (-_-) but yeah, he hits all the points i wanted to hit."

It was like 8am, and I hadn't slept, but I wanted to vote. Figured I'd at least give someone a prompt to post something with actual content, rather than...what he posted. >>

"dang it lopen. cause chaos later. plan now."

But chaos is my plan.  (I'm kidding, and my "asking" DA to cause chaos was also a joke. Obviously he told me his role and I gave him some good advice, then told him he could just cause chaos instead of listening to me. )

"So why aren't you retracting your vote on Seonid?"

Ties are helpful for gathering info, and the votes were tied when I last posted. I gave my opinions on the players, and Seonid hadn't responded. There was no need for me to change my vote at that point. Why didn't you vote? You say you don't intend to this Cycle unless something is very suspicious, but that doesn't make much sense to me. It's Day 1, nothing is going to be that suspicious. I get that you're busy, but you just went and responded to every post, and even mentioned you'd be okay with lynching Straw or Stick. Why not vote on one of them?

I was hoping for more than that @Seonid. If you're a villager, we need you to be discussing things! There's 3 lynch targets, could you at least give your opinion on them?

I'm moving my vote from Seonid to Straw, mostly because I have a village read on Stick and kind of a village read on SB(less so than Stick). I don't really think him and Aman are teammates though, based on the fact that they're voting together on Day 1. I haven't really seen anything to make me suspicious of Aman yet either, so it was mostly a bout of paranoia(I will stay paranoid of him until I see good reason not to).

The new colors annoy me for some reason...

@Frozen Mint, the dead villager is what gives us the evidence we need for a solid lynch. Without a lynch on D1, we're in a similarly clueless state on D2. Not saying I suspect you because of your stance on the issue, just that I don't think it's a good strategy. And we have lynched eliminators on D1 before, multiple times.

Thank you for the response. And i think you're right, i will vote for either straw or stick. not sure which.

16 hours ago, TheMightyLopen said:

<SNIP> Part of the reason I'm voting Straw is that it seems like there's been a little resistance in lynching him. Joe said he wouldn't mind if Straw or Stick got lynched, but doesn't vote on one of them. You vote on Stick as the 3rd vote to break the tie between Stick, Straw, and SB. Aman prodded Straw to speak up, while voting on him, which could have been a way to help Straw avoid the lynch by backing off once he responded more, but like I said, I don't think him and Straw are teammates since they're voting together. If Straw turns out to be an eliminator, I'd probably go after you or Joe. Depends on how the rest of they Cycle plays out though.

Eh, I'll vote for Straw then. @Straw I'm not all that suspicous of you, but as i said earlier, i wouldn't mind seeing you be lynched, and your lynch might help bring evidence against Aman, if he's an elim, so that's a good enough reason for me for a D1 Lynch.

12 hours ago, randuir said:

Everyone seems to treat Joe's style of going over posts as his usual thing. I've only seen it once before, and he was an elim in that game, but since no one is calling him out on that I'm going to assume that's not suspicious.

I was an Elim that game, and i found that i really liked this style of posting, as it helped me organize my thoughts

 

Aman, I'mma steal your post.

8 hours ago, Amanuensis said:

C1 Votes: Thus Far

(4) Straw: SilverBlade5, Amanuensis, BrightnessRadiant, TheMightyLopen, Hemalurgic_Headshot, A Joe in the Bush

(0) A Joe in the Bush: Paranoid King,

(0) Seonid: TheMightyLopen, 

(3) _Stick_: OrlokTsubodai, Paranoid King, Elenion, 

(1) Silverblade5: Amanuensis, Straw,

(1) Hemalurgic_Headshot: randuir, 

(1) Paranoid King: _Stick_, 

(1) Randuir: Jondesu

 

[DeTess]

1 hour ago, BrightnessRadiant said:

 

@randuir I'm kinda curious as to why you would say you're suspicious of Stick, but then vote for Hemalurgic_Headshot intead. Didn't you accuse him of doing the same thing? If stick is an Elim then I would feel a bit suspicious of you. You say she is suspicious, but then you keep the vote from swinging over to her. Why?

What I accused HH of was expressing a single suspicion, and then failing to act on it. I expressed two suspicions: Stick and HH, and then went with HH. I settled for HH as I believed his line of thought was the more suspicious of the two. I could have voted on stick, as you said, and made the vote swing towards her. I might still do so in a future cycle, but at the moment what seemed to me like an attempt to guide the lynch without committing seemed mores suspicious than the attempt to breed paranoia. I'll have RP up in a second.

Edit: this makes me wonder, @Jondesu, @BrightnessRadiant. If you believe Stick is an elim, why not vote for her? If you don't believe that, why wonder why I went for the second of my two suspicions? I do believe I'd explained why I was suspicious of both adequately (tl;dr of my previous post, stick was breeding paranoia, HH was supporting a lynch without committing to it).

Edit 2: RP:

Neil hurried along in the center of the formation of friendly chalklings. He kept his eyes low, so that he wouldn’t get distracted by any nearby wild chalklings. As long as he didn’t look at the monsters, he was functioning just fine. It shouldn’t be too hard to keep doing that either. All he had to do was…

A big clump of wild chalklings crashed into the side of the defensive formation around him, and Neil stopped in his tracks. The friendly chalklings around him where well-drawn, but there where just so many of the wild monsters. Running at this point was pointless too, as they moved faster than he could. Neil lifted his chalk hesitantly. Maybe if he made a circle of warding...

His thoughts were interrupted as a furry animal of some sort jumped right in the middle of the cluster of fighting chalklings. It bounced around aggressively, and it left only broken chalklings in its wake. In a matter of seconds, it had cleaned up the monsters. If Neil didn’t better, he could have sworn the creature chattered something about hurrying up.

He quickly dismissed the creature from his thoughts as the chalklings around him continued moving towards the circle. He ran to catch up, then marched with them. No other chalklings came at them at the moment, so Neil picked a special piece of chalk from one of his pockets. This one was far broader than normal pieces, making it unsuitable for drawing normal defenses or chalklings, but it was perfect for establishing strong lines of forbiddance, or repairing the great Circle. He just hoped he’d have the time to do the job properly.

@Sart, I'm leaving the outcome here open on purpose. Depending on what happens in-game (if I get killed, or if there are too little lines of warding for some reason) the outcome changes. You're of course welcome to use Neil in the write-up, and otherwise I'll write it once I know the results of this cycle.

Edited April 19, 2017 by randuir

[Sart]

More rule clarifications:

Quote

Does the Line of Forbiddance protect against the lynch?

No. This was a loophole the first time I ran this game. I meant to change the rules to fix that, but my new wording is unclear. Lines of Forbiddance, even powered up ones, do not protect against the lynch.

Quote

Where's the countdown timer?

I knew I was forgetting something... I'll make sure to post one for the next cycle, but for this cycle just use Aman's. Sorry about that.

[BrightnessRadiant]

1 hour ago, randuir said:

What I accused HH of was expressing a single suspicion, and then failing to act on it. I expressed two suspicions: Stick and HH, and then went with HH. I settled for HH as I believed his line of thought was the more suspicious of the two. I could have voted on stick, as you said, and made the vote swing towards her. I might still do so in a future cycle, but at the moment what seemed to me like an attempt to guide the lynch without committing seemed mores suspicious than the attempt to breed paranoia. I'll have RP up in a second.

Edit: this makes me wonder, @Jondesu, @BrightnessRadiant. If you believe Stick is an elim, why not vote for her? If you don't believe that, why wonder why I went for the second of my two suspicions? I do believe I'd explained why I was suspicious of both adequately (tl;dr of my previous post, stick was breeding paranoia, HH was supporting a lynch without committing to it).

Okay i admit that does make sense...something just struck me as odd when i read through your's and Hemalurgic's posts..the situation seemed a bit confusing but i can see where you were coming from. 

[Sart]

This cycle is now closed. Next cycle coming up momentarily.

[Sart]

Gunther looked up slowly from his Lines of Warding. Thanks to the camp's effort, the circle had been repaired.

"Hey. Where's. K'Sarben?" Stick wheezed, panting.
"How should I know?" asked Gimmel, clearly irritated. "More importantly, who the hell blew a hole in the Circle?"
"It was the Forgotten, it had to have been the Forgotten." Shem stated levelly.
"Really? You think the Forgotten are among us? Oh, that would be wonderful!" cried Regem.
"The Forgotten killed someone!" Amelia screamed.

The camp rushed to her side. K'sarben was lying in a pool of his own blood, dead. A kitchen knife was protruding out of him, yet there were no Lines surrounding him.

"Oh happy day! The Forgotten are among us." Regem continued to be exhilarated, not noticing the angry mob surrounding him.
"That's it. You're behind this! You tried to sabotage the camp for your gods." Ryth asserted, grimly.
"Oh, I only wish I was one of them. Oh, it would be so... grand!" Regem exclaimed.

In an instant, it was over. Ryth grabbed the knife from the body and stabbed Regem.

"Um... shouldn't there be chalklings swarming out of him?" asked Shem.
Ryth scowled. "That means there's probably more of them. Keep watch. We may have stopped the first assault, but there's bound to be more."


Straw was lynched. He was a Village Blackmailer
Darkness Ascendant was killed. He was a Non Rithmatist.

Vote Count:
Stick (3): Elenion, Orlok, Paranoid King
Silverblade (1): Aman,
Straw (4): Hemalurgic Headshot, Joe, Lopen, Brightness Ascendant
Paranoid King (1): Stick
Randuir (1): Jondesu
Hemalurgic Headshot (1): Randuir

Player List:

  Hide contents

1. Elenion: Isaac "The Hammer" Jones
2. Amanuensis: Cole
3. Silverblade5: Ryth
4. _Stick_: Stick
5. Darkness Ascendant: K'Sarben Non-Rithmatist
6. Seonid: Shem Onidsen
7. Jondesu: Kyle
8. Hemalurgic_Headshot: Gunther the Slow
9. OrlokTsubodai: Locke
10. A Joe in the Bush: Joel
11. Ecthelion III: Daggertongue
12. Frozen Mint: Shanice
13. Paranoid King: Gimmel
14. Ornstein: Conner
15. Straw: Regem Noctis Village Blackmailer
16. randuir: Neil Kores
17. TheMightyLopen: Lance Willis
18. Brightness Radiant: Amelia

This cycle will end 48 hours from now, Friday, 8 PM Eastern Time.

Edited April 22, 2017 by Alvron
Put wrong person down for vote, and skipped a game

[Jondesu]

Drat, I knew we were likely to hit a villager of course, but losing a non-Rithmatist is a bit annoying, especially since he might have been the only one. Hopefully not, but I guess we mostly lose a chance to clear someone with an Artist or Duelist.

Randuir:

1 hour ago, randuir said:

What I accused HH of was expressing a single suspicion, and then failing to act on it. I expressed two suspicions: Stick and HH, and then went with HH. I settled for HH as I believed his line of thought was the more suspicious of the two. I could have voted on stick, as you said, and made the vote swing towards her. I might still do so in a future cycle, but at the moment what seemed to me like an attempt to guide the lynch without committing seemed mores suspicious than the attempt to breed paranoia. I'll have RP up in a second.

Edit: this makes me wonder, @Jondesu, @BrightnessRadiant. If you believe Stick is an elim, why not vote for her? If you don't believe that, why wonder why I went for the second of my two suspicions? I do believe I'd explained why I was suspicious of both adequately (tl;dr of my previous post, stick was breeding paranoia, HH was supporting a lynch without committing to it).

I'll be honest, I probably misunderstood or failed to fully read something in your post, but I also knew it wasn't particularly dangerous to vote on you at that moment, since it was very unlikely to be a successful lynch when I was the only one, but I did want to let me thoughts out to be analyzed. I agree now that your vote doesn't seem that suspicious, though I'll maintain I had nothing better to go on. 

I'd forgotten these would be combined cycles, so two deaths isn't bad like I thought, just expected, but we still have growing pressure as usual. Did anyone know DA was a non-Rithmatist, and if not, who would have wanted him out of the way? Or was it a basically random killing? I'll try to do better this round, btw, and probably the next, but next week I have more medical appointments so I'll be less involved again. I won't ever go inactive or not put in an order if I can help it, though.

[Hemalurgic Headshot]

Hmmm... my vote was removed. 

[Amanuensis]

I woke up stupid early this morning and had an exceptionally exhausting day at work, so I'm posting now to let you all know that I just got home and that I'm going to sleep now. If anyone is active tonight, the two things I'd mainly like to see discussed is potential reasons why DA was killed, and whether or not people think an eliminator was involved in Straw's lynch (if so, who among them is most likely, and is it possible that someone was trying to divert the lynch away from Silver or Stick, who both at one point in time were tied for the lead, if not in it). I'll offer my own two cents on this in the morning, when I'm better rested and have processed the information more.

EDIT:

36 minutes ago, Hemalurgic_Headshot said:

Hmmm... my vote was removed. 

Actually, I don't think it was. It appears the GM mixed up you and Silverblade5. Silver's vote is above despite the fact that he retracted, and yours is the only one missing, so I think it's just an error. The tally should say this in the write up above.

C1 Votes

(4) Straw: BrightnessRadiant, TheMightyLopen, Hemalurgic_Headshot, A Joe in the Bush

(3) _Stick_: OrlokTsubodai, Paranoid King, Elenion, 

(1) Silverblade5: Amanuensis,

(1) Hemalurgic_Headshot: randuir, 

(1) Paranoid King: _Stick_, 

(1) Randuir: Jondesu

Edited April 20, 2017 by Amanuensis
Accidental double post

[Sart]

25 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

EDIT:

Actually, I don't think it was. It appears the GM mixed up you and Silverblade5. Silver's vote is above despite the fact that he retracted, and yours is the only one missing, so I think it's just an error. The tally should say this in the write up above.

C1 Votes

(4) Straw: BrightnessRadiant, TheMightyLopen, Hemalurgic_Headshot, A Joe in the Bush

(3) _Stick_: OrlokTsubodai, Paranoid King, Elenion, 

(1) Silverblade5: Amanuensis,

(1) Hemalurgic_Headshot: randuir, 

(1) Paranoid King: _Stick_, 

(1) Randuir: Jondesu

Ach. I should've double checked my work. I mixed up Hemalurgic's and Silver's votes. Hemalurgic Headshot's vote was not silenced.

[A Joe in the Bush]

Quote

But chaos is my plan.  (I'm kidding, and my "asking" DA to cause chaos was also a joke. Obviously he told me his role and I gave him some good advice, then told him he could just cause chaos instead of listening to me. )

@TheMightyLopen Did DA mention anyone else he was PM'ing with? Did he tell you who, if anyone, he was giving a specialization to? Did you kill him?

@Elenion you mentioned you had PM buddies. Was DA one of them?

[TheMightyLopen]

21 minutes ago, A Joe in the Bush said:

@TheMightyLopen Did DA mention anyone else he was PM'ing with? Did he tell you who, if anyone, he was giving a specialization to? Did you kill him?

@Elenion you mentioned you had PM buddies. Was DA one of them?

Nope, he never mentioned anyone else in our PM. I asked him to tell me his role since he'd offered in the thread(though I already was guessing he was a Non Rithmatist), he told me, I said choose wisely for who he picked to give a special power(or randomly if he wanted to cause chaos, hence the chaos stuff from before), then I told him my role in exchange. I didn't realize Non Rithmatists could only be villagers at that point, but I figured he was likely to be a villager based on his openness with his role and his posts, so I didn't see the harm in it. He did not tell me who he was targeting with his power though, if he used it at all.

...And no, I did not kill him.  If anyone used a Line of Making on me, they'd confirm that.

I guessed DA was a Non-Rithmatist from his earlier post about "yeah, and not everyone can makes Lines, because of Non Rithmatists" which was directly after my post about that, and then asked him in PM's to confirm, just because I was curious. Anyways, considering Sart's clarification that all Non Rithmatists and Acid Specialists are villagers to start, I'd guess that the Forgotten had figured he was a Non Rithmatist too and killed him because of that. Also, with me clearly stating in the thread that he'd told me his role, they may have been hoping to cast some suspicion on me for his death if their guess of his role was correct(I'm looking at you Joe).

As for the voters on Straw, obviously I know I'm village, I'm leaning village for Brightness, no idea about HH, and I think it's pretty clear that I don't trust Joe. Besides that, I've got a village read on Stick and Frozen Mint. Kind of Orlok, Jondesu, and Elenion as well, but less so, since I've had trouble reading them in the past. I'm not sure I can get a village read on randuir at this point...  I don't trust Aman, but I rarely do. I feel like Seonid would have posted more if he was a Forgotten, but I'm not sure about that. Silverblade, I could see being a Forgotten, though that's partly because Joe said he had a village read on him and if they're teammates I could see Joe taking a stance like that with a teammate, and now that we know Straw is village, we know that Silverblade voted on a villager(which isn't much, but it's something). Overall though, I'm not that suspicious of Silverblade. I've no idea about PK or Ornstein. And I think that's everyone.

People I would probably help lynch right now: Joe, SB, PK, Ornstein, HH, and maybe Seonid. I should go over the first Cycle again though, after which I'll vote on someone(probably one of those players, but I may change my mind completely after a thorough readthrough ).

People I would be against lynching right now: Stick, Frozen Mint, Brightness, Aman(helpful for keeping legitimate discussion alive).

[A Joe in the Bush]

Look all you want Lopen. I had no idea or clue that DA was a Non rithamist. I hadn't caught that. And I'm not trying to cast suspicion on you, i was literally asking you if you had any leads.

Also, you suspect Silver because i said i had a village read on him? In that case I have a village read on you as well. =P (I actually do btw.)

[Elenion]

Today I had a surprise job interview, the awards dinner for a math competition, 3 hours in the car, and 2 yet-unfinished AP Bio packets, so I have no time right now. Sorry.

@A Joe in the Bush  No, he wasn't.

[Stick.]

 <-- random ninja emoji that won't go away

Clearly, the elims were aware of DA's role. They couldn't have been that lucky, getting a Non-Rithmatist on the first hit. If they had the ability to choose who to convert, they'd obviously target a Non-Rithmatist. But since they don't, the only other option was to kill the non rithmatist, so that the villagers dont benefit from them.

To anybody else who contacted DA: if DA mentioned his other contacts, please share. We'll lynch them :] 

[DeTess]

I hadn't actually spotted it before now, but in hindsight I think that if I had been looking for people betraying their roles in the thread, I'd have picked up on DA probably having the non-rithmatist role. I reckon both Lopen and Amanuensis, had they been looking for it, would have been able to figure this out as well. There are probably others that could have figured it out as well if hey had been paying attention, as DA didn't exactly try to hide it.

That having been said, I would expect both Elim!Lopen and Elim!Amanuesis to have tried to get DA to give their team some useful specializations before killing him, so I'm not particularly suspicious of Lopen or Aman right now.

Anyway, the point of the above two paragraphs was to point out that it wouldn't have been necessary for the elims to have gotten a roleclaim from DA.

I'm going to be busy for the next day or so, but I'll try and get a bit of an analysis post up before the end of the cycle. Don't forget to flip your coins and put in your orders, people.

Edited April 20, 2017 by randuir

[Amanuensis]

Since right now the subject is focused on DA, I'll give my two cents on him before I try figuring out the lynch. Personally I hadn't figured out what DA's role was, since Rand brought it up. I might have been able to if I tried, but it wasn't really a priority of mine. I was more focused on generating discussion than figuring out role distribution. While the latter is helpful, the former is essential, and unlike discussion, which depends entirely on the players, role distribution is guaranteed to be revealed in write-ups. If I really wanted to know, I would have just PM'd DA myself, since he offered. I considered messaging him just to ask that he didn't tell anyone, but decided to advise the entire thread instead.

I actually don't think that DA was killed because of his role. DA is not a player who is likely to be targeted with a Line of Making, and even if he was, him becoming a proven villager wouldn't be that dangerous for the elims, especially since he said he wouldn't be able to participate as much as he'd like. Additionally, the elims would have a lot to gain from leaving DA alive and befriending him, as they may have been able to convince him to teach them a new specialization. Potentially getting the ability to Assassinate players on top of their kill would be worth the risk, imo. For that reason, as well as the fact that Lopen openly claimed to have PM'd DA and knew his role before the kill, I'm convinced that Lopen is a villager. While it could have been a trick on his part, it doesn't really fit Lopen's style. At least, in my opinion.

So, for the reason DA was actually killed? My first thought was that it was a poor attempt at framing Lopen. For that reason, I'm a bit suspicious of Joe for being the first person to bring it up. His post came approximately 2 hours after the write up, which is quick enough that he could have been anticipating the situation. However, I think it's worth nothing that the relevant post in which Lopen claimed knowledge of DA's role was a post he began addressing Joe, so it's not outside reason that after seeing DA's death, he immediately remembered the comment and went back to find it. Right now I'm leaning elim on him, although I do think Joe has enough XP under his belt to have executed an attempted framing better, or at least, more subtlety.

Stick, however...

3 hours ago, _Stick_ said:

Clearly, the elims were aware of DA's role. They couldn't have been that lucky, getting a Non-Rithmatist on the first hit. If they had the ability to choose who to convert, they'd obviously target a Non-Rithmatist. But since they don't, the only other option was to kill the non rithmatist, so that the villagers dont benefit from them.

To anybody else who contacted DA: if DA mentioned his other contacts, please share. We'll lynch them :] 

Maybe I'm just reacting to this post adversely because I'm of the complete opposite opinion, but the use of "clearly" and "couldn't be that lucky" feels like you're trying to sell an agenda. While these games involve a significant amount of skill, luck is a huge factor, especially when it comes to the early game stage. In LG15b, the only village alignment-scanner was lynched on the very first day in a last-minute bandwagon, saving the life of an eliminator capable of giving their teammates the roles of the dead. In AG2, elim!Lopen was lynched accidently due to a combination of several vote manipulations on the very first day. In LG22, an elim!Sart with scan-immunity and the power to give that up to kill an extra player was lynched on the first day over semantics. These are just three examples I can think on top of my head, and I'm confident I'd find a lot more (the first cycles of LGs 19 and 21 being other good examples, if you care enough to go read them).

While I won't deny it's possible that DA was killed for his role, I doubt it. I wish Lopen had asked if DA had revealed to anyone else, but sadly that didn't happen so I can only guess. Unless anyone else comes forward, we can assume he was the only one who was told, and while it's possible that an eliminator figured it out from one obscure comment, I still don't think it's likely. Assuming you're an elim and that I'm right, this sounds a lot like you trying to get us to go on a witch hunt for a leak when there is none.

My primary concern regarding this theory is that you're so blatant about it. It doesn't really fit your MO as an elim, although I've only played one game with you when you're evil, in which I was evil too, so I might not be the best judge of your character. That and the fact that you were pretty open with being lynched last turn make me think you could be a villager, but your assertions that the elims had to know DA's role, combined with you narrowly escaping the lynch, and that you attempted to make people paranoid of me last turn, make me suspicious (even if that last bit of advice isn't bad for the village when I'm evil).

Speaking of the lynch, I'm not particularly suspicious of Orlok right now, since he was the first to vote for you and it was for something reasonable (that you seemed to be trying to discourage players from making plans). PK was the second person to comment and vote for you, although his reason was because you were "active but not too active" (which as you responded, isn't unusual for you, which I agree with). It was at that point I voted on Straw, creating a tie between the two of you, but after I got a sufficient response from Straw, I ended up retracting it on you in favor of Silver. Not too long after, Brightness says she agrees with your statement about the elims being involved in making plans, and then votes on Straw for not being very helpful and because she can't help being suspicious of him (which is a pretty vague statement, now that I look at it again).

Straw, who we know was a villager, votes on SB creating a 3-way-tie. Lopen mentions that of the three he'd prefer to vote for Straw or SB (the former because he thought him and I might be teammates). Len was the next player to vote, breaking the tie in favor of killing you. Although his reasoning was flawed considering he was suspicious of you trying to subtly protect those making plans when you were also the player who brought up an elim being among them. That being said, the quote he referred to does look a lot like backtracking, which is suspicious in itself. Tangent aside, Lopen comes in and ties the lynch again by voting on Straw, although the tie is broken again in favor of you when Silver retracts his vote. The vote remains with you in the lead for quite a few hours, until HH once again ties things by voting on Straw along with a request that other people vote so that it doesn't get wasted. A few players vote, but none get involved with the tie, up until Joe comes in within the last two hours to vote for Straw after he was prodded by Lopen for saying he wouldn't mind him being lynched and not voting. In the same breathe he says that he doesn't think Straw is suspicious but agrees to lynch him because it might prove that I'm evil (if he is too).

So, for those not keeping track, that's four separate examples of players creating ties when Stick is in the lead or outright leveraging the lynch in her favor (Brightness, Lopen, HH and Joe). I've already said that I think Lopen is village due to the elims killing DA, and that I'm suspicious of the elims trying to frame Lopen, which kind of implicates both Joe and Stick. I do want more information from @BrightnessRadiant on why she was suspicious of Straw, exactly, since she didn't really explain why, only that she didn't think he was being helpful enough. HH... I'm going to go back and read some posts to figure out how I feel about him. I at least remember he did that thing he usually does where he asks whether or not he should vote and if so, on who, which IMO usually indicates him as being village, however I can't recall if I've ever seen him evil. I'll have to save that for after I relieve one of my coworkers so he can have breakfast and eat myself, though, so I'm going to end this post here.

Edited April 20, 2017 by Amanuensis

[DeTess]

@Sart, if a kill attempt is blocked by a line of forbiddance, is it mentioned in the write-up? It would be unfortunate if we assume DA was an elim kill, while it really was the act of a trigger-happy assassin.

[Stick.]

@Amanuensis sorry, I have a habit of speaking like that...In an earlier game, I did something similar, assuming that the elims certainly didn't have a scanner on their team and it almost got me lynched >>

20 minutes ago, randuir said:

@Sart, if a kill attempt is blocked by a line of forbiddance, is it mentioned in the write-up? It would be unfortunate if we assume DA was an elim kill, while it really was the act of a trigger-happy assassin.

That would mean all the Forgotten used Rithmatics instead of a kill. I don't think that's likely

 

[DeTess]

8 minutes ago, _Stick_ said:

 

That would mean all the Forgotten used Rithmatics instead of a kill. I don't think that's likely

 

That's why I asked that question. If blocked attacks aren't mentioned, it becomes a possibility. Otherwise it is indeed very unlikely.

[Seonid]

@TheMightyLopen

If you didn't kill DA, what did you do instead? I'm not as sanguine about your innocence as Aman seems to be. Not to say I'm convinced you're guilty,  but I don't think that this line of pressure ought to be given up on yet.

Honestly, I think the likelihood of someone scanning you with a Line of Making last night is pretty low, but in case someone did,  I'd like to have a pubic statement from you to compare.

As for my lack of activity last cycle,  I've barely had enough time to read everything, let alone respond or analyze. In the next 2 weeks, I'm quitting my job, moving to a new city,  and have three papers to write in the meantime. Sorry this isn't #1 priority,  especially on d1 - where my particular skills are nearly useless.

[ImpossibleBowler]

One question, does the line of making notify you if the forgotten has killed someone, or just rithmetic lines?

[Paranoid King]

3 hours ago, Ornstein said:

One question, does the line of making notify you if the forgotten has killed someone, or just rithmetic lines?

Just rithmatic lines. This also means that it won't detect non-rithmatists or acid specialists using their unique abilities

 

Last cycle Lopen defended Stick pretty well. If Stick turns out to be an eliminator, I wouldn't be surprised if Lopen was as well. Randuir and Brightness Radiant seem innocent to me. Joe and Jondesu I'm so-so on. A lot of this just depends on if Stick is an elim, though, so I'm placing my vote on him first.