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2 hours ago, Jondesu said:
 

Alright, I'm back, because the important message was just received.  Sart has confirmed that he did not make a mistake, and that means Aman is lying, and he did draw a Line of Vigor (presumably helping to kill Lopen, though I haven't been able to pin which of those kills was aided by that).

@Amanuensis, here's what I really don't like about this tactic you're employing.  Sure, you're lying, but that's just part of the game, and doesn't really bother me (I was prepared to counter a lie, and just waiting to see what it might be, though I didn't expect you to lie about using the Line of Vigor in the first place, just to come up with an inventive lie to justify it instead).

However, instead, you blamed a GM mistake. That's crossing a line, in my opinion.  Saying I'm lying is fine.  Saying you did something else is fine.  Claiming the GM made a mistake is not.

I realize this isn't written down in any rules anywhere, most likely, but it definitely crosses a line I've felt existed here, though maybe I thought too highly of some people.  I really didn't expect it of you, though.

Well considering that I'm not the one lying, this is pretty pointless to respond to. But for the record I did not blame the issue on the GM. I asked you a simple question, if you were sure it wasn't a mistake, because from my perspective there's only two possibilities. You're lying, or there was an error. I dismissed the error being the explanation after Sart's lack of response because he was present for the posting of your initial vote. The only thing I mentioned later was that you might be waiting for a response to delay further conversation on the matter. I'll even go back to find the relevant quotes.

22 hours ago, Amanuensis said:
 

I'm not among the Forgotten, so I can only assume you are, since there's no redirect abilities in this game. Did you confirm with Sart that he didn't mix up the results with another player? He did say a lot of people changed their orders last minute. Otherwise, I'm guessing that the Forgotten have had four members this entire time, as otherwise you wouldn't risk lying like this to get an easy kill. So Jondesu.

Here I just ask the question, as a reasonable villager would like to have confirmation on whether it was a mistake or whether the player is just lying.

21 hours ago, Amanuensis said:
 

Guess we're at an impasse then. If anyone can corroborate either Jon's story or mine, please come forward. Otherwise it's going to be his word versus mine. I'm going to bed now, but when I get time tomorrow, I'm going to analyze everything Jon's said and done so far, to hopefully find evidence to credit that I'm telling the truth. It's been over a half hour since this has been brought up, so I'm sure if Sart made a mistake, he would have told Jon already. Goodnight everyone.

Here I say it's been over a half hour since it was brought up, so that the information you "received" is probably accurate. Therefore the only conclusion that remains is that you're lying to get an indisputable lynch.

9 hours ago, Amanuensis said:
 

I know a lot of my analysis here is hinging on Jon being evil, but I don't really know any other way to present it, given he's lied about my action. As for Sart not yet responding I severely doubt that, as I saw him actively reading the thread last night during our back-and-forth. I more so think that Jon is trying to delay the conversation from progressing than genuinely waiting.

Here twelve hours have passed and I'm specifically responding to you wanting to delay the conversation due to a lack of response. When you bring up how that could be insulting, I sympathize and apologize, but that doesn't change the fact that I know what action I took, which means your claim of using a Line of Making on me from the start is farfetched.

EDIT: Blaming something on the GM doesn't even make sense from an elim perspective, either. Like, there's no other way that can end besides the GM answering and the elim looking bad. All I did was ask you a reasonable question because I was baffled that you were accusing me of something like that, and you took it further. Note how in every post I made after that, I never once used the GM making a mistake as a reason for you being suspicious. I ran with you being evil, because I'm confident you are.

EDIT2: I feel it necessary to point out that while I was typing my analysis of you, you mentioned me saying you were holding off on analyzing me until you heard a response. It's only because of that post that I mentioned the GM at that point.

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49 minutes ago, randuir said:

Alright, thank you Elenion. I assume you've contacted @OrlokTsubodai about this and he can confirm your story?

No, does confirming my action C3 really help us any? Actually, I guess it rules out me performing the elim kill then, so I'll do that now. I'll PM Orlok and ask him to confirm in-thread that I actually did scan him C3, but Orlok's off right now so it won't be immediate.

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Alright, Frozen Mint, thanks. Now I know you're also an Elim.

I'm sadly wary of Rand and Seonid, if only because I know how quickly I've bussed teammates that made mistakes in previous games, but neither of them is actually giving me Elim vibes at the moment. Len I have a fairly good feeling on this game (*gasp*), and I don't have many other strong opinions right now. I guess I'm still leaning village on Joe as I said before.

Edit: I want to apologize if anyone thinks I got too heated about the issue of Aman (as I perceived it) blaming Sart. I hope you could at least all see I was being genuine, however.

Edited by Jondesu
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38 minutes ago, Frozen Mint said:

I used a Line of Making on Aman last cycle, and he drew Line of Warding. So Jondesu.

Finally! Thank you.

As ecstatic as I am to have someone supporting my side of the story, however, why did you decide to use a Line of Making on me last cycle?

16 minutes ago, Jondesu said:
 
 

Alright, Frozen Mint, thanks. Now I know you're also an Elim.

I'm sadly wary of Rand and Seonid, if only because I know how quickly I've bussed teammates that made mistakes in previous games, but neither of them is actually giving me Elim vibes at the moment. Len I have a fairly good feeling on this game (*gasp*), and I don't have many other strong opinions right now. I guess I'm still leaning village on Joe as I said before.

Edit: I want to apologize if anyone thinks I got too heated about the issue of Aman (as I perceived it) blaming Sart. I hope you could at least all see I was being genuine, however.

Of course you'd say that, and I guess I can't really blame you. I'd so the same thing. But come on.

think I said this already, but just in case, I'd like to apologize you for anything I said that inadvertently insulted you.

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10 minutes ago, Hemalurgic_Headshot said:
 
 
 

I drew a Line of Forbiddance on Brightness. This means that the other Elim used a Line of Vigor to cancel that.

Add this to your elaborate analysis.

If this is true, then Rand being Jon's teammate is the only explanation. Mint has verified that I used Warding, so that means Rand was one of the two eliminators using a Line of Vigor, or, potentially, is the killer or the Assassin. This matches him joining the vote on me, and the potential distancing I mentioned from Jon's vote C1.

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10 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

think I said this already, but just in case, I'd like to apologize you for anything I said that inadvertently insulted you.

Apology accepted.

HH, thanks. So we know Aman used a Line of Vigor, Frozen Mint may have been the one to submit the kill or else probably also used a Line of Vigor (my understanding is that Lopen was to be protected), and if there's indeed an Assassin among the Forgotten (likely), that means we probably had exactly that: Three Lines of Vigor (one from Aman, one from Frozen Mint, one from an Assassin if it's not Mint), and then one submitting the Elim kill. I wish I knew who the other two are.

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6 minutes ago, Hemalurgic_Headshot said:
 

If it weren't so serious (and it really isn't, it's just a game), it is kind of laughable how everything said is literally flipped and applied to the other side.

We could simply flip a coin and decide, seeing how opposite each claim is.

I might just flip a coin:ph34r:

I mean, flipping coins is how this game started. Might as well end it that way :P

On a serious note though, I would like to avenge all the villagers that have been killed and are watching this game on the edge of their seats. So I think you should keep your vote on Jon :P

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1 hour ago, Hemalurgic_Headshot said:

If it weren't so serious (and it really isn't, it's just a game), it is kind of laughable how everything said is literally flipped and applied to the other side.

We could simply flip a coin and decide, seeing how opposite each claim is.

I might just flip a coin:ph34r:

Flip it.  Heads: I'm telling the truth. Tails: Aman is lying. :ph34r:

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41 minutes ago, A Joe in the Bush said:

My PM buddy hasn't responded, so I'll just ask in thread. Does anyone know of a second assassin, forgotten or not? I'm not talking about the one who tried to off me, as they couldn't have offed lopen/Brightness last night.

This does have to do with the Aman vs. Jon situation.

 

 

No, I know who attacked you, but I have not learned of the second Assassin at all.  I haven't been doing much in PMs since I've been busy and otherwise occupied until basically this cycle, though.

I'm going through the posts of those who I'm less sure about, btw, trying to piece together parts of the puzzle, but at this point I'm 100% sure that Aman and Frozen Mint are Elims (Aman even almost admitted to both in a PM, but of course I know no one will believe that), and while I'd like to believe HH is as well, since he's voting for me, I'm leaning towards him being village. I'm still leaning village for Joe right now as well, and like I said before, I think Len is probably clean, and I hope Rand. However, we have (I assume) either 3 or 4 Forgotten right now (I'm hoping 3, but we have to prepare for the possibility of 4), and I'm running out of options, so I'm probably wrong about one of my village leads, though not necessarily.  I have very little information to go on for Orlok, and Seonid is a bit of a wildcard (I've been PM'ing him, so I know he knows as much and more than I do, but that doesn't really tell me much either way).

Still 2/3 or 2/4 isn't bad to have nailed down at this point.  I wish we had more, though.

Lines of Warding, btw, people!  Since Aman is a Sentry, we lose two potential Lines of Warding there (in fact, we'd lose them even if he was telling the truth, since he couldn't Ward tonight, but I doubt he has any reason to use one again).

EDIT: So I looked through the voting patterns to see if I could find any clues there (reading every post was going to be more than I'm up for).  Most of us voted for villagers most of the time, of course, since we haven't lynched any Forgotten yet, but there are a couple of votes that stand out to me.

On C2, Stick (confirmed villager) voted alone for HH.  No one has since voted for HH, and Stick was lynched that cycle, so it doesn't give us a lot of info. Still, it is interesting that the only people to vote for HH are Rand (C1) and Stick (C2).

Also on C2, Lopen and Brightness, who are both confirmed village, voted for Joe.  They repeated that same vote on C4, and were joined by Seonid, after which Lopen and Brightness were both killed.  Of course, Lopen's role was known and would have been one worth targeting him for, but I don't think we know if the Elims knew Brightness was the Acid Specialist.  This actually reads to me as an attempt to frame Joe, making it look like his accusers were being silenced, without killing all three of them, either because they couldn't or they wanted to use Seonid for other purposes (or he's Elim, which I'm not ruling out of course).

Frozen Mint and Aman voted independently for the first three cycles, with Aman voting on Silverblade C1, not voting C2, and then voting on Lopen C3, while Frozen Mint skipped C1, then voted on Stick C2 and Seonid C3.  They both then voted on Ornstein C5 (confirmed villager) and now me this cycle.  In the Elim doc, I bet they were trying to figure out how to distance themselves from teammates, but the Ornstein lynch was big enough they didn't need to vote separately there.  FM voting on Seonid actually stands out to me quite a bit, in addition to my thoughts about the framing of Joe that I think might have happened.  She votes for Seonid to distance them from each other, then Seonid votes for Joe, who they're framing as an Elim, and bam, they get split up in everyone's minds.  I dunno, though, that feels like just paranoia and sleeplessness kicking in perhaps.

Len and Rand, who I suspect are both village, however, voted for Seonid C4.  While I wouldn't assume they're right even if they were confirmed good, I still find that to be a positive sign for this theory. 

In summary, my current thinking is that if there are 3 Forgotten, they are Aman, Frozen Mint, and Seonid, and if there's a 4th, it'll be HH or Orlok.

EDIT 2: I'm waffling on Seonid, remembering his Line of Forbiddance, which could have been placed on someone else, but we do at least know it was indeed a Line of Forbiddance, assuming he's not working together with Orlok, which…he could definitely be doing. Let's take out Aman and Frozen Mint first, though.  Lynch either one of them, and you can confirm I'm telling the truth.

Edited by Jondesu
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Joe, with the stakes here, that's not good enough. See, a lynched Forgotten here likely leaves us with 2 or 3 remaining, even if they don't manage a conversion. At that point, 7 players will be left alive if they get just one kill (at least the Forgotten Assassin won't get to kill again tonight). If there's 3 remaining, we're almost certainly screwed, but with 2 we'd have a chance.

If you lynch me now instead, there will still be 7 players left, but guaranteed 3 of those will be Forgotten, with a chance that either there are 4 now or that they get a conversion, which means game over.

This round is it. We need more than vague logic and promises of more info later.

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Alright, HH has claimed to have protected Brightness. That means there are now 4 mandatory actions for the elims, if we assume HH isn't lying. To reiterate:

  1. Kill on Brightness
  2. Kill on Lopen
  3. Breaking Vigor on Lopen
  4. Breaking vigor on Brightness

Even if they had pre-scanned Aman, in his story a fifth line would still still be needed to break my or his line of warding.

13 hours ago, Amanuensis said:

You're discounting the possibility that Jon scanned Lopen C1 and myself C3, and thus knew my role already, or that both Len and Jon are Forgotten!Artists and have managed to scan four players. 

These are possibilities. However, it relies on either two specific people being elims(and I'm nto convinced of Elenion's evill-ness), or Jondesu lying about when he did what actions.  However, if Jon claimed to scan on C2 and C4, but did so on C1 and C3, there are 4 cycles in which a line of making could out him, so this is an extremely dangerous lie.

Quote

They just have to lynch a single villager to end it, or end the day in a tie so that their faction kill and a couple well-placed vigors can allow for a conversion. Why would they not just blatantly accuse a player of using Vigor themselves? Jondesu was unlikely to have been targeted by a Line of Making himself, given his level of activity, and not pulling this maneuver would have left minimal direction for those to accuse. It's really the perfect scenario for them, and right now I believe that you're either falling for it or a part of the scheme.

I agree that in the scenario, it makes sense to accuse someone of using vigor. It makes even more sense to NOT falsely accuse Aman of using vigor, as it immediately turns the full might of your analytic powers against them. If this had been their scheme, why not accuse HH, who has already had some suspicion from time-to-time, or Joe, for the same reason? A team capable of coming up with this scheme would also be smart enough to not target you.

It also makes less sense to do so if the team didn't expect to be the target of the lynch this cycle. I'd say there was a good chance we'd have lynched Joe this cycle, and he most likely isn't on Jon's team. In this case, why would they bother coming up with this lie, targeting it at the most dangerous player around, when they could have won by sitting around and doing nothing?

Vote Tally:

(4) AmanuensisJondesu, Elenion, randuirSeonid

(4) JondesuAmanuensis, Seonid, Hemalurgic_Headshot, Frozen Mint, A Joe in the bush

@Hemalurgic_Headshot, since you're the only one on the Aman-side of things that I am not reasonably convinced is an elim at this point, would you consider switching based on what I've outlined above, including your claim?

7 hours ago, A Joe in the Bush said:

As I explained in the PM, there are only 2 other people i trust in this game. Those two know why, and one of them thoroughly looked through my logic. If we're right, an Eliminator will be lynched tonight.

Joe, would these two other people be willing to step forward and support what you've said? Otherwise this looks a lot like 'We talked about it in the elim-doc and decided bussing Aman was a bad idea'.

@Sart, sorry for badgering you about this repeatedly, but this could be kind-of important: Does a line of vigor need to be targeted at the one who drew the line of forbiddance, or at the one protected by it to break the line?

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@OrlokTsubodai, @Seonid. You two are the players closest to being confirmed village, as far as I know. Unless you're on a team with Jon and Rand and I've been wrong about Len this whole time, there's no other explanation. To clarify the situation so that you aren't mislead, this is what I believe happened.

Forgotten!Artist scanned Lopen C1, discovered he took no role and had no specialization. Forgotten!Artist kept that information to themselves for a cycle to discuss whether or not they should keep it a secret or confront him. The Forgotten decide to approach Lopen for hopes of earning his trust and gaining a Specialization. Because of Sart's clarification that Non-Rithmatists are hard-cleared village, at this point it would be suspicious if they said they scanned him C1. So, Jon pretends to have done it C2 and approaches Lopen C3. On C3, the Forgotten!Artist scans me, discovers that I'm a Sentry who used a Line of Forbiddence. Meanwhile, they find out through PMs that PK is an Artist, and decide it would be better to kill him than me, since my role couldn't be used to prove that Jon isn't an Artist, or that he's been lying about what cycles he's been using Lines of Making if he is. C4 comes around and Lopen begins to suspect me, although I alleviate most of his concerns and contact him, and that's when they decide to make their move. Either they began the game with an Assassin or Jon / another Forgotten succeeded in getting the Assassin Specialization from him, and they use this to attack Lopen and Brightness, the only players able to point a finger at them after the fact. The fact that both Seonid and HH were Forbidding those two players means that for both kills to succeed, Vigor had to be used on them. That means someone in the trust group was compromised (Hello anybody.  Jon? Len? Rand?). This also means that since the Acid-Specialists power was used up, one of the two Sentry's claiming to have Warded is lying. Rand or myself.

Rand is connected to Jon. He twists the logic of the scenario to fit Jon's agenda in getting my lynched. This is exactly what he'd do if they were teammates. Len as well joins the vote on me, and it only considers a single possibility. It's impossible for them to not have a 4th player, considering both Lopen and Brightness died, and therefore it's got to be either HH, Mint or Joe, since Orlok and Seonid have accounted for each other, unless I'm completely wrong about Len and they're teammates with Jon and Rand. As for the last member it can't be Mint unless her telling the truth about my action last night is some kind of eliminator mind game. That leaves both HH and Joe, who are voting for Jon, so either way they're messing with us.

In conclusion, there's two ways I can see the teams right now.

Option 1: Jon, Rand, Len, (Mint, Joe or HH)

Option 2: Jon, Rand, Orlok, Seonid

@Elenion, @Seonid, @OrlokTsubodai, please consider your votes carefully. Considering what occurred last night, if you lynch me, the game is over. I guarantee it. I hope you make the right choice.

@Frozen Mint, @A Joe in the Bush, @Hemalurgic_Headshot, one of you have to be evil, but that means the other two are guaranteed village. I beg you to please keep your vote where it is. Otherwise there's no chance of the village coming back from this.


(C5) VotesThus Far

(4) AmanuensisJondesu, Elenion, randuirSeonid

(4) JondesuAmanuensis, Seonid, Hemalurgic_HeadshotFrozen MintA Joe in the Bush

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5 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

Rand is connected to Jon. He twists the logic of the scenario to fit Jon's agenda in getting my lynched. This is exactly what he'd do if they were teammates. Len as well joins the vote on me, and it only considers a single possibility. It's impossible for them to not have a 4th player, considering both Lopen and Brightness died, and therefore it's got to be either HH, Mint or Joe, since Orlok and Seonid have accounted for each other, unless I'm completely wrong about Len and they're teammates with Jon and Rand. As for the last member it can't be Mint unless her telling the truth about my action last night is some kind of eliminator mind game. That leaves both HH and Joe, who are voting for Jon, so either way they're messing with us.

I don't really see how I'm twisting logic. As I've said before, I don't think it's particularly likely that Len and Jon are team-mates, but I have pointed out that I made the assumption when I presented my reasoning. Likewise, I've explained why Jon lying about when he took his actions would be extremely dangerous, as a single case of someone using a line of making on him would show the lie.

Also, Aman, you haven't explained yet why someone looking to pull a fake accusation would target you, of all people. The way I see it, you're the worst person to target for a ploy like that.

I hope everyone tries to use logic for placing their vote, rather than follow the lead of the person who's shouting loudest that we'll all lose if we don't follow his lead.

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1 hour ago, randuir said:

I don't really see how I'm twisting logic. As I've said before, I don't think it's particularly likely that Len and Jon are team-mates, but I have pointed out that I made the assumption when I presented my reasoning. Likewise, I've explained why Jon lying about when he took his actions would be extremely dangerous, as a single case of someone using a line of making on him would show the lie.

Also, Aman, you haven't explained yet why someone looking to pull a fake accusation would target you, of all people. The way I see it, you're the worst person to target for a ploy like that.

I hope everyone tries to use logic for placing their vote, rather than follow the lead of the person who's shouting loudest that we'll all lose if we don't follow his lead.

How isn't it? On C4 Jon voted for Ecth saying "If Ecth is village, Len is rising on my suspicion list." Instead of using a Line of Making on Len, he does it on me. Where is the logic there. Until this cycle, Jon hasn't even mentioned being suspicious of me, just wary. Furthermore, look at Len's vote. Granted the same could be said about Mint's for mine, but his reasoning for voting for me over Jon isn't well thought out. You say that it's dangerous, but that's exactly what Mint did, except she actually followed me, and yet people aren't changing their votes.

If I was the worst person to target for it, then why the heck is it working? Oh right. Because 3 of the 4 people voting for me are Forgotten. This is exactly why it's a good tactic. Without every single player voting for one person or the other, the lynch is either tied or goes in the eliminators favor. And unlike me, the Forgotten have had cycles to plan something like this and lay the pieces. It doesn't really matter who they chose. I think the main reason I was chosen is because a lot of discussion was focused on me the previous turn, which has clearly left some players impressionable enough to join your side of the argument. Plus, I'm historically known for lying through my teeth. If Orlok is a villager, than I'm the perfect choice for this, as he'll probably get flashbacks to the game where I claimed to be a Seeker who scanned him and found him Spiked just to save myself from being lynched. Furthermore, if I wasn't targeted, I would be the player least likely to follow the Forgotten's lead, as I have a tendency to question everything and doubt everyone.

A villager should be wanting to shout loudest in a scenario like this. Although we should all be playing this game to have fun, I don't think anyone enjoys losing. So yes. I'm going to fight tooth-and-nail until the end, because giving up is not in my character.

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1 hour ago, Amanuensis said:

If I was the worst person to target for it, then why the heck is it working? Oh right. Because 3 of the 4 people voting for me are Forgotten. This is exactly why it's a good tactic. Without every single player voting for one person or the other, the lynch is either tied or goes in the eliminators favor. And unlike me, the Forgotten have had cycles to plan something like this and lay the pieces. It doesn't really matter who they chose. I think the main reason I was chosen is because a lot of discussion was focused on me the previous turn, which has clearly left some players impressionable enough to join your side of the argument. Plus, I'm historically known for lying through my teeth. If Orlok is a villager, than I'm the perfect choice for this, as he'll probably get flashbacks to the game where I claimed to be a Seeker who scanned him and found him Spiked just to save myself from being lynched. Furthermore, if I wasn't targeted, I would be the player least likely to follow the Forgotten's lead, as I have a tendency to question everything and doubt everyone.

I wouldn't say a tie is indicative of 'the plan' that you claim I'm part of is working, especially if Orlok is village, as any plan depending on a king-maker deciding in your favor is an inherently bad plan. If I'd been an elim, I would have gone after Joe or Seonid this cycle, as they where the focus of most voting last cycle.

Quote

A villager should be wanting to shout loudest in a scenario like this. Although we should all be playing this game to have fun, I don't think anyone enjoys losing. So yes. I'm going to fight tooth-and-nail until the end, because giving up is not in my character.

Oh, I'm not saying you should give up, I'd just prefer a bit more analysis and logic, and slightly less rethoric :P.

Speaking of which, I'd been planning to take a look at your big analysis post of Jondesu.

TL:DR: I start reading and analyzing from the start, and mention a lot that Aman is portraying Jondesu's comments in the worst possible way, and from the assumption of guilt, which doesn't help with others trying to make up their mind. Aman mentions this himself all the way at the end too, which would have saved me a lot of comments if I'd read that first.

23 hours ago, Amanuensis said:

One

Stick (3): Elenion, Orlok, Paranoid King
Silverblade (1): Aman,
Straw (4): Hemalurgic Headshot, Joe, Lopen, Brightness Ascendant
Paranoid King (1): Stick
Randuir (1): Jondesu
Hemalurgic Headshot (1): Randuir

Two

Stick (6): Elenion, Joe, Frozen Mint, Paranoid King, Ornstein, Randuir
Hemalurgic Headshot (1): Stick
Paranoid King (1): Jondesu
Joe (2): Lopen, Brightness Radiant

Three

Ecthelion (5): Elenion, Jondesu, Randuir, Lopen, Brightness Ascendant
Lopen (1): Amanuensis,
Paranoid King (2): Hemalurgic Headshot, Ornstein
Elenion (1): Echtelion
Seonid (1): Frozen Mint
Ornstein (2): Paranoid King, Joe
 

Four

Seonid (2): Elenion, Randuir
Ornstein (5): Amanuensis, Jondesu, Hemalurgic Headshot, Joe, Frozen Mint
Joe (3): Seonid, Lopen, Brightness Ascendant
Amanuensis (1): Ornstein

I don't really see anything analysis worthy by this alone, as the only players who have voted together more than once were Len and Rand, and it looks like a lot of the players still alive have voted with everyone else at least once. Plus every single one of us has voted for a villager at one point, by the looks of it. That being said, now that Jon has made his play, I know he's evil, so I can at least look at who he's voted for, as well as who he hasn't.

On C1 he did not participate in either the Stick or Straw lynch. Instead he voted on Rand because he voted for HH instead of Stick, despite his analysis of her. Knowing that he's evil now, I think the reason he didn't get involved there is because he knew both players were villagers, and thus remaining on the sidelines could keep people from looking at him over others.

Not much to add here, apart from pointing out that you keeping your vote on SB when others switched to stick and straw could be considered in the same way as Jon's vote. Unfortunately there aren't any time-stamps there, so I can't properly judge whether you where sticking to the sidelines on the voting after initially trying to appear active, or whether you where just not active for the last couple of hours of the cycle.

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On C2 he was the only player to vote for PK. Again he stays way from the lynch on Stick, which could be him being aware of the results. On C3, however, he joins the bandwagon on Ecth, contradicting the pattern of his two previous votes. I would say there's a decent chance a teammate of his was up for the lynch, or could possibly be swung too, but when he voted, Ecth had already accumulated 3 or 4 votes.

On C4, last cycle, he joins the lynch on Ornstein. Considering that Joe and Seonid's alignments are still unknown, and that their votes were a lot closer to Ornstein's then Ecth's was to Len or Seonid the previous turn, it's possible he was trying to run interference for one of them. In said post he specifically mentions Joe, not Seonid, which could either be because Joe is his teammate and he naturally wanted to mention him, or because Seonid is his teammate and he was actively trying not to comment on him.

I still think Joe is village, so I'm leaning the second option over the first. But considering that Orlok is vouching that Seonid used Forbiddence last night, I think it's likely neither are his teammates, and he just decided to vote on Ornstein because as he's proven this turn by lying about me, they're right on the precipice of victory. The only real question I have right now is if his vote on Rand C1 was a distancing technique.

I still think Joe is village, so I'm leaning the second option over the first. But considering that Orlok is vouching that Seonid used Forbiddence last night, I think it's likely neither are his teammates, and he just decided to vote on Ornstein because as he's proven this turn by lying about me, they're right on the precipice of victory. The only real question I have right now is if his vote on Rand C1 was a distancing technique.

For the rest, I can't help but feel that this analysis is more 'because I know Jon is evil, this is suspicious',  rather than, 'this is suspicious, reinforcing my claim that Jon is evil'. This is a theme that seems to continue through most of this post.

Note on something gut and tone related I picked up on is in the spoiler tag. Skip it if you want to stick with analysis.

Spoiler

I'm getting a vibe from this, and other posts, that Man is overcompensating with the village-ness. he mentions that Jon is evil or that Jon is lying just about every other paragraph (not that much of a hyperbole).

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Beginning mostly talks about his stance on the plans and the people who've suggested them, which judging by what he said, is non-alignment indicative. However there are a couple things in here that fit the eliminator mindset. For example, he mentions how Artists and Duelists can hard-clear villagers, but then goes on to mention when he expects there to be a conversion. At the end of this post, he ends with it being "best to assume anyone you confirm villager is a likely convert." Normally it's not bad advice, except in this game the conversions are random, so it's not like the Forgotten can explicitly choose who they bring to their side. Having this kind of mindset is only relevant if you're worried about giving information to someone who might turn later, so now seeing Jon as evil, I think this is him trying to prevent the village from developing a trust group. While it's not unlike a villager to discuss the conversions, especially since other players brought it up before, the fact that the largest portion of Jon's first post this game discusses it, I think the Forgotten must have been discussing going for the conversion a lot. Which means they've probably been trying to figure out who the Acid-Specialist is, and that they somehow got that information last turn, judging by the kill on Brightness.

I don't see why Jondesu's comments here are suspicious. For practicing PM-safety it doesn't matter much whether the conversion is random or not. The only thing it changes is that you can talk more openly about who you have PM's with without the risk of someone being targeted for conversion to get the information you shared. Jon also never says outright that people shouldn't be talking in PM's or trusting eachother. If anything, he says that it should be fine to do so in the first couple of cycles:

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  It's worth remembering that if I understand correctly, we're unlikely to have any conversions in the first two or three cycles (the third cycle is the first with a decent chance, it sounds like, but that would be at the end of the cycle I think), so we can trust any information we get early for a little while, and then need to exercise both caution and our deductive skills to watch for changes in gameplay (though I didn't get caught by a change of gameplay in LG32, so that's not a foolproof solution :ph34r:).

As I said before, this looks like you're trying to find suspicious things based on the premise that Jon is evil, rather than trying to present evidence to support your claim that he is evil.

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Also, his last paragraph here says that he believes voting is important, so he'll get involved in the lynch later. Specifically he says he wants to pay attention to who suggested which plan and who supported them.

He calls Len's plan overly complex, here, but doesn't see anything that helps the elims. He does say he's wary of myself, Lopen, and Len as well, two of which I know for a fact are village, so I think he might have been indirectly discredit us. Whether or not that applies to Len as well, I can't say for sure. Usually elims like to throw their allies among a list of villagers to make it difficult to pick out who their teammates are later. He follows this up with a vote on Rand for a reason I mentioned above. Like I said before, I think it's odd he didn't say anything about Straw, Stick or Silverblade, who all turned out to be village, which supports my theory of him trying to avoid the spotlight.

I'd like to point out that Jon is not the only one to state waryness of Aman and Len here. To quote Lopen's post from the same cycle(page 4 of the collated thread):

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Out of the 3, I'd vote on Straw or Silverblade. Probably Straw, because I'm kind of paranoid of you Aman and I could see you voting on Straw like that and then getting him to speak up like he has a lot easier if you guys are teammates. I also have a bad feeling about Joe, but that's entirely gut, so I should ignore it. I thought Brightness sorta sounded like she's a villager. Len is only making plans and not voting or commenting on the votes. Not sure if that's suspicious for him or not.

Once again, Aman seems to be picking up on things that would only be considered suspicious once someone is confirmed evil, and which would be considered completely innocent when someone is confirmed good. This might be useful for making up his own mind, but it doesn't help anyone else reach a decision as they don't share that certainty of Jon's alignment.

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Okay, either this was an accidental slip up or Jon was intentionally poking fun at us. He starts this post saying "I knew it was likely to hit a villager of course, but losing a Non-Rithmatist is a little annoying." The player lynch on C1 was Straw, a blackmailer. The Non-Rithmatist was DA, the Forgotten kill. Thing is, this was the very first post of the turn, which makes me think he was anticipating the results, and seeing that they hit such a useful role for the village, was too excited not to comment.

Afterwards he responds to Randuir and admits fault in his analysis, as well as he knew his vote wouldn't make a difference (contradicts his first post where he said he knows voting is important. Two completely different mindsets). He also says he wanted to let his thoughts out to be analyzed, which actually makes me trust Randuir more. Rather than a distancing attempt, this makes me think he was trying to make people think he was distancing himself from Rand, in case he ever got killed.

He claims he forgot this was a combined cycle.points out that DA was the Non-Rithmatist, and asks if anyone knew or if the kill was random. Since this is a part of the same post I believe that the way he started it was an accidental slip up that he and the rest of us never realized. Overall, this post feels pretty forced to me, in the sort of way that an eliminator would struggle trying to articulate what thoughts they would have if they were village. For example, the main reason he's upset about a Non-Rithmatist dying is because it's one less chance for a player to be hard-cleared. Generally only eliminators would be concerned with that, so this shows us where his mind was, rather than on the fact that we lost someone with the power to buff other villagers.

I don't have too much to comment on this. This is the first part that actually reads like someone trying to prove that Jon is evil, rather than the writings of someone who 'knows' Jon is evil and points out suspicious things to himself. However, I don't really see why hard-clearing someone would be something only an elim would consider. in fact, I would expect that this is something a village duelist or artist (as Jondesu claims he is) would consider as well.

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So he reminds us that Lines can't be done twice in a row, so anyone who reveals what they did is giving the eliminators a window to hit them. It's fine enough advice, especially considering the situation, but he then follows it up with him being wary of my analysis (even if it makes sense), particularly where I conclude Lopen is probably a villager. This aligns with my theory that Jon knowing his role and not killing him is not a reason to trust him. Like with Joe in LG31, I think Joe was trying to get on Lopen's good side because at this point I presented a very logical reason for why Lopen wasn't evil, so it would be better for him to get on the pro-Lopen train sooner rather than later.

I'd say the explanation of why Jondesu is wary of Aman's analysis and his subsequent agreement do not require any eliminator intent. He states he must be wary of Aman's analysis because he needs to ensure he critically thinks it through first, not because he is convinced Aman is evil. With that cave-at out of the way, I don't think it is too odd for him to subsequently agree with Aman.

Also, Aman, I stated that Elim!Lopen probably wouldn't kill DA before you did, so any argument about joining the 'trust Lopen' train could be used against you as well. From page 6 of the collated thread:

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That having been said, I would expect both Elim!Lopen and Elim!Amanuesis to have tried to get DA to give their team some useful specializations before killing him, so I'm not particularly suspicious of Lopen or Aman right now.

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Later on C2 he finally comments on the votes against Straw and Silver. At this point both players are dead, so his defending their level of activity helps no one. It's clear to me he was avoiding commenting on them while they were still alive because he didn't want to derail the lynches. Judging by the players who voted for them (Joe, Lopen, Brightness and myself). I think he was hoping we'd implicate ourselves by remaining uninvolved.

I'd agree with you here, if Jon had merely made that defense as a belated defense of those people. In his own words:

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Last cycle we started with a vote on Straw from Silverblade, for "not being helpful".  Perhaps a fair criticism, but not one that indicates alignment in my experience so far, and I find it very annoying that this bandwagon ended up winning despite all the other discussion that formed, with so little evidence behind it.  I don't think this implicates Silverblade, btw, just that we got ourselves locked in on just a few people (Stick and Straw mostly, with Silverblade also being tied for the lynch at one point IIRC). Hence, I want to put more of my focus on those who have been allowed to be ignored.

So he didn't state that to defend the dead, just as part of a request to focus on the people that had been ignored.

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Instead of joining the votes on Stick, he urges us to focus on players who have mostly been ignored, and then votes on PK, who since has been killed and revealed village. At this stage in the game I believe his mindset was the obvious that Stick would be the next death, and after that, they'd need someone new to distract us. It nearly worked, too, because in C3 2 more players voted for PK, and Mint even tried to convince Jon to change his vote back to PK from Ecth. He responds to this later, so I'll talk about it when we get there.

So why did they kill PK, if one of the elims was the main person suspecting him, and they already almost lynched him once?

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C3 begins and so far the only players with votes are Joe, Ornstein and Len. Rather than join one, he votes for PK again, saying PK's explanation wasn't good enough. Why he decides to vote for PK over Ornstein, I'm not exactly sure, but it might be a result of him finding out either's role in PMs and preferring to kill an Artist rather than a Sentry. As for why he didn't vote for Joe or Len, both are still alive and candidates for being one of the Forgotten who used a kill or a Line of Vigor. Because of my previous turns analysis, I would guess Len.

Jondesu voted on someone he suspected. Aman then wonders why he hasn't voted for Joe or Len. I don't understand why Aman thinks he should have voted for them though. I might have missed it, but where did Jondesu suggest either Joe or Len are good lynch candidates?

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Here he switches his vote from PK to Ecth because no one shares his suspicion. I find it funny he chooses Ecth over Len, and in this post he even says that if Ecth is village, Len will move up his suspicion list, and yet despite Ecth turning up village, he decides to "use a Line of Making on me?" If he truly believed his opinion would be affected by the results of the lynch, why didn't he follow it up by watching Len? Instead he chose me, who last cycle had said enough to allay even Lopen's concerns about my alignment. That doesn't really make sense at all, especially for a player who knew Lopen's role (and thus that he could be trusted). I'm becoming increasingly convinced that Jon and Len are teammates, so if we lynch Jon today, I think I'd strongly advocate going after Len tomorrow.

For his stated goal (not letting his vote go to waste) Jon's vote makes sense. However, I've said before that his actions this cycle seemed somewhat odd to me. Also, whre does Lopen state that he started to believe you where village? his exact words where (emphasis mine):

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Aman - I don't have a lot of time, so I'll skip doing a post by post analysis of Aman. His responses this Cycle have given me a slightly more village read than earlier, but I don't trust him all that much right now. He did tell me his role and what he's done so far, but I'd expect him to do that from either side. One thing I thought might point to him being village is that I feel like it's likely the Forgotten knew I was a Non-Rithmatist by last Cycle, and he did his post where he voted on me and cast suspicion on me. If he was a Forgotten, I think it would be likely that he'd have known I was a village only role, so I don't think he'd have tried to go after me like that. So overall, I'm not as suspicious as I was earlier, but am still wary.

This sounds like he decided there where others that where more likely evil than you. Of course, stating that he was trusted by Lopen would only help Aman's case, given that Lopen is confirmed good.

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Like I mentioned before, Mint asked Jon if he would switch his vote back to PK. He says he would, but that doing so would only tie it, which wouldn't be helpful. My theory is at this point the Forgotten had already planned on attacking PK, and while they could probably change the order, it would be better if they just lynched Ecth and took PK out on their own.

This is a possible interpretation, though it could just as easily be that his reasoning is exactly as shown. This is once again a case of working backwards from the premise that Jon is evil, which is useful for making up your own mind, but doesn't help others to make up theirs.

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Last post of the previous turn, before he outright lied about my action. He votes on Ornstein at a point where it's basically guaranteed he'll die, although he does defend Joe in this post, which makes me think he's already planning on accusing me this turn and is setting up a contingency in case his bluff fails. By defending Joe here, it either makes it seem like they're teammates, or that he wants us to think that. As I've already said, I don't suspect Joe, so I believe it's the latter.

Again, a comment that by Jondesu that is presented in the worst possible light.

Of course, the same can be said about the comment Aman makes about Joe trying to implicate Jon could be made about him asking Orlok to make analyzing me his lowest priority.

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Now that I've gotten through all of that, I wanted to follow up on Seonid claiming that Len was the second Artist who scanned Lopen. @Elenion, can you confirm this? Since I believe Jon and Len are teammates, I have two theories. Only one of them is an Artist and actually scanned Lopen, and then they both claimed the same role to make it look like there was more of them than there actually were, so that if one got killed and revealed the other wouldn't be suspected while also doubling the chance that a Forgotten got into the trust group. Another possibility is they truly are both Artists, which wouldn't necessarily be unbalanced if their 4th member was a Sentry. Either way, I think they're both teammates. Jon says he scanned Lopen and myself (Non-Rithmatist and Sentry), only C2 and C4 respectively. Len, when did you scan Lopen, and who else have you scanned?

In conclusion, I already know that Jon is evil. I don't think they were expecting Orlok to come back for this unless he is evil, too, in which case they'd probably be hoping to sow enough doubt about me to get one villager on their side, since basically everyone left this game is pretty active, minus Mint and HH, to an extent. The fact that I just got ninja'd by Seonid voting for Jon basically confirms they're not teammates, which probably means Orlok is village as well, as if he was evil, I doubt he would claim an action that verified a villager over an eliminator.

I know a lot of my analysis here is hinging on Jon being evil, but I don't really know any other way to present it, given he's lied about my action. As for Sart not yet responding I severely doubt that, as I saw him actively reading the thread last night during our back-and-forth. I more so think that Jon is trying to delay the conversation from progressing than genuinely waiting.

Okay, Aman mentions himself that a lot of his analysis hinges on Jon being evil, so that's a small point in his favour. 

Oh, and before I forget:

2 hours ago, Amanuensis said:

That means someone in the trust group was compromised (Hello anybody.  Jon? Len? Rand?). This also means that since the Acid-Specialists power was used up, one of the two Sentry's claiming to have Warded is lying. Rand or myself.

Frozen Mint, who backed your claim, is also part of this group. Lopen had claimed to her (?) about his role, and seemed to trust her with other info. So I do agree the group was compromised, but Aman is conveniently forgetting about a possible suspect here.

Edited by randuir
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7 hours ago, randuir said:

Joe, would these two other people be willing to step forward and support what you've said? Otherwise this looks a lot like 'We talked about it in the elim-doc and decided bussing Aman was a bad idea'.

I'll ask them if they want to reveal themselves. but they're widely regarded to be villagers.

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1 hour ago, randuir said:

Okay, Aman mentions himself that a lot of his analysis hinges on Jon being evil, so that's a small point in his favour. 

Oh, and before I forget:

Frozen Mint, who backed your claim, is also part of this group. Lopen had claimed to her (?) about his role, and seemed to trust her with other info. So I do agree the group was compromised, but Aman is conveniently forgetting about a possible suspect here.

Yeah, that's the point. I, beyond a shadow of a doubt, know that Jon is lying because I know my alignment and the action I took last night. I'm not trying to convince you, since it's clear to me that you're Forgotten too. We both already know where you're vote is going to remain. My analysis of Jon was for the sole benefit of the other villagers, who need help deciding the right choice.

As for Mint.

Can anyone else who's not Forgotten confirm this? Because it's news to me that Mint was involved in PMs at all.

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