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I told someone in PM last cycle that I'd make another massive analysis post this cycle, this one about Seonid. Hopefully this doesn't turn out as long as my last one...

Well, first thing I notice is that Seonid doesn't post too much. :P

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I'm here,  I'm alive.

I don't tend to participate d1 much. I love the theory of the d1 lynch,  but I've never managed to make it work out for me.

I haven't seen anything suspicious yet,  but I'll be watching and waiting. 

-Seonid, C1

Not much to analyze here, other than the "I haven't seen anything suspicious yet". When Stick made a similar comment it aroused my suspicions, but that ended up leading to a mislynch. So I'm just going to rate this post Neutral.

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If you didn't kill DA, what did you do instead? I'm not as sanguine about your innocence as Aman seems to be. Not to say I'm convinced you're guilty,  but I don't think that this line of pressure ought to be given up on yet.

Honestly, I think the likelihood of someone scanning you with a Line of Making last night is pretty low, but in case someone did,  I'd like to have a pubic statement from you to compare.

As for my lack of activity last cycle,  I've barely had enough time to read everything, let alone respond or analyze. In the next 2 weeks, I'm quitting my job, moving to a new city,  and have three papers to write in the meantime. Sorry this isn't #1 priority,  especially on d1 - where my particular skills are nearly useless.

-Seonid, C2

Here Seonid attempts to put pressure on Lopen by suggesting that Lopen make a claim of what he did C1. However, this would be a definite bad idea, because that would tell everyone whether Lopen was currently Warding odds or evens, whether he's got a role that would have him make any kind of nontraditional lines (Assassin and Duelist both use lines that I can't see being very common among villagers, so if Lopen had made one of those it would be a giveaway to his role), and what action he was prohibited from doing C2. For this kind of action-fishing, I'm rating this post Elim.

Here's what that revealed action could have told the elims about Lopen, in greater detail:

Claim:                         Info that would be gathered (other than just odd/even):

Warding                      Vigoring him would have be useless

Forbiddance               Vulnerable to elim-kill that night unless protected by another player

Making                       Possibly an Artist, may be a good player to PM for info

Vigor                           Definitely a Duelist

Revocation                 Definitely an Assassin

Silencing                     Because of no vote being negated, he must have had a strong suspicion to make him use non-upgraded Silencing

Nothing detectable     Definitely a non-Rithmatist

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(quotes Randuir, who made the same point as I brought up above)

That's easily remedied - he can reflip his coin after he reveals,  so that his new actions are unpredictable. I did think this through before I called for it.

But if he is still unwilling to reveal in public, I invite him to PM me about it.

(quotes Brightness Radiant)

I'm actually not hugely suspicious of Lopen. But I'm not willing to simply clear him yet either.  Your defense and Aman's notwithstanding, I'd like to hear from Lopen himself before I let this go.

(quotes  Aman)

Perhaps you're right about Lopen being a higher priority scan target than I initially thought. Frankly, I'd rather anyone who scanned him not reveal yet until after he responds.

-Seonid, C2

Here Seonid makes a backtrack, despite assuring Rand that he thought it all through beforehand: he goes from last post's call for Lopen to claim in-thread, to suggest Lopen either claim in-thread and reflip (still a bad idea, because an action discloses other things than just odd/even, as I listed above) or PM Seonid about it. I'm calling this Slightly Elim for the backtrack while telling Rand otherwise.

However, I do like that Seonid isn't willing to let up without hearing from Lopen again. It fits with Seonid's stated goal of putting "pressure" on Lopen. So does Seonid asking any Lopen-scanners not to claim until Lopen has responded. This reads Slightly Village.

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So,  it's late in the cycle, and I haven't posted in thread yet. I have been reasonably active in PMs though.  My communications have convinced me that Lopen is village to within reasonable doubt. I found somebody who did scan him d1, and he didn't make the kill.

Aman is giving my gut all the wrong signals, but I end up convinced that he's evil in every single game I've played with him.  So I don't actually think I suspect him - though I recognize that I might be overcorrecting in the wrong direction.

I'm not a fan of the ecthelion lynch for a number of reasons, not least the fact that it's going through unopposed. But given that I'm the preferred second target for a distressing number of people voting on him, I don't have a better target.

Nobody else has caught my eye really.

-Seonid, C3

First off, Seonid confesses to being active in PMs but lurking the thread. Having PM contacts is not alignment-indicative, and neither is admitting that you're lurking. Neutral.

Second, Seonid chooses not to vote on Aman despite his gut. Had he done that earlier in the cycle, he would have had time to vote on Aman and switch it off if nobody else thought the same. But the way things turned out, Seonid voiced suspicion of Aman without actually voting on him or providing any evidence that might have gotten Aman in trouble, so that could be a distancing tactic. Slightly Elim, for the possiblity of distancing. Related, Seonid's voting on Ecth was self-preservation, and despite the vote-count at that time not putting Seonid in much danger (4 on Ecth, 1 on each of me, Seonid, Ornstein and PK, with talk focusing primarily on PK) I can't fault him for caution. Neutral.

That's all of Seonid's whopping 4 posts. For some reason I thought he had posted more. Tally:

Elim: 1

Slightly Elim: 2

Neutral: 3

Slightly Village: 1

Village: 0

And I think I've just found my vote for this round. Seonid

@Seonid Do you agree or disagree with my analysis?

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2 hours ago, TheMightyLopen said:

Well that is very disappointing. I asked an Assassin to attack Joe, since I'd moved my vote, but apparently that didn't work out for some reason. I'm not sure why yet.

Aman, the Assassin in contact with me claims to have started as such I think, and they claimed they didn't kill anyone yet. So unless we started out with 2 Assassins(very unlikely), DA was the Forgotten kill. I'd said multiple times that I thought Stick was a villager.

It looks like you already knew the results of this lynch. I don't see any good reason to believe that the Ecthelion lynch was 'orchestrated' by the Forgotten(besides the fact I know I'm village, the other voters had good reason to lynch Ecth and it's not like you can say a Forgotten was up for the lynch before that, since no one was really up for the lynch before that), so I think you were just looking for a way to change your opinion of me without seeming too suspicious. And because you've now changed your opinion of me completely, you gave yourself an explanation for why you've survived this long.

Because of all of this, I want to lynch either Joe or Aman. I feel pretty confident that they're both Forgotten at this point.

Tired. Stressful day at work. I'm a guardian, i guarded myself last night. I'm comfortable revealing that becuase the elims won't bother killing me since the village has announced it's trying to kill me. But I've reflipped my coin to decide if I'm warding the village tonight.

I don't see why two 'every other night' illers are unlikely, when everyone* is a 'self protect every other night'

not about me

Please lynch me. it'll stop you from tunneling on me, and my activity is only going to stagnate and decrease from here on out. I'll be pulling a 16hour all night shift on tuesday. i did not know this. I wil try to maintain activity until my death. either way i won't be guarding myself any more. I'm not a forgotten. no clue about Aman. Haven't read any of his posts in the depth necessary to actually analyse him. 'night. I'm going home.

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So, just to summarize, the following people have been killed these last 3 cycles: Darkness Ascendant, Silverblade5 and Paranoid king. with the exception of DA, all of these had a bit of suspicion going against them. I'm having trouble figuring out why the elims would be going after them. If they had let them be, than they might have been lynched. At this point I'd have expected at least 1 kill attempt against a more high-profile player (as far as I know, those are Aman, Joe, Lopen and Orlok, with honorable mentions for Jondesu and Elenion). As I asked before, if an assassin was the cause of any of these kills, please let the thread know in some way*, as who they decided to kill might be an important clue for figuring out the elims.

Until an assassin comes forward, I'm going to assume that these three where all elim kills. To quote @A Joe in the Bush form C1:

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(Hear that Elims? I'm saying if you kill me, it will make it harder for you to hide if you're a high profile player. You should leave us alive so that you can hide among us pls. =P)

I'm wondering whether this is what's going on. Which makes me wonder whether Joe knew more than he was letting on here. I'll be going through the posts of the people I've mentioned above again to see if any of them stand out.

also, this is an even cycle, people:

Spoiler

If your previous result was Even, flip 2 coins here: http://justflipacoin.com/

If either coin is Tails, draw a line of warding.

If not, do something else this cycle. Your result is now Odd.

Those who defended last cycle, (Odd players,) you can't defend this cycle. Do something else instead.

 

*Read my previous post about this for suggestions in how to do this somewhat safely.

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11 hours ago, TheMightyLopen said:
 
 
 

Well that is very disappointing. I asked an Assassin to attack Joe, since I'd moved my vote, but apparently that didn't work out for some reason. I'm not sure why yet.

Aman, the Assassin in contact with me claims to have started as such I think, and they claimed they didn't kill anyone yet. So unless we started out with 2 Assassins(very unlikely), DA was the Forgotten kill. I'd said multiple times that I thought Stick was a villager.

It looks like you already knew the results of this lynch. I don't see any good reason to believe that the Ecthelion lynch was 'orchestrated' by the Forgotten(besides the fact I know I'm village, the other voters had good reason to lynch Ecth and it's not like you can say a Forgotten was up for the lynch before that, since no one was really up for the lynch before that), so I think you were just looking for a way to change your opinion of me without seeming too suspicious. And because you've now changed your opinion of me completely, you gave yourself an explanation for why you've survived this long.

Because of all of this, I want to lynch either Joe or Aman. I feel pretty confident that they're both Forgotten at this point.

I agree that 2 Assassins is unlikely, so if your contact is telling the truth, then DA would have to be the Forgotten kill. You seem to discount the Assassin lying about their role so I'll move forward assuming that you have evidence of the fact. I'm confused though. Why are you mentioning Stick is a villager in this post?

I have played enough games to realize that when a player accrues several votes with minimal opposition that something is fishy. I disagree that anyone had good reason to lynch Ecth, just like you disagree with anyone having good reason to lynch Stick. We both took the wrong stances on villagers. Can you explain to me what makes your situation any more innocent than mine?

We're reaching that stage in the game where Orlok talked about the game becoming unwinnable without us killing a Forgotten. I mentioned Ecth probably being village because I suspected if it didn't change, we might be too late. And sorry, Lopen, but I wasn't looking for a way to change my opinion of you. My initial opinion was entirely based on the fact that DA was killed by the Forgotten. Nothing you've said or done so far looked particularly villagery to me, so with Sart's clarification proving that there's no real way we can know what kill belongs to who, I realized it was possible that I was attacked C1 and that the Forgotten were happy to let us believe DA's death was on them.

The main thing I've been trying to figure out is if I was attacked C1, why wasn't I attacked C2. Earlier this turn a player messaged me saying that they protected me C2 and that they told one other player to make sure their action was accounted for. Can you confirm whether or not this is true, Lopen?

I seriously don't understand your reasoning here, man. What makes Joe or I absolutely have to be Forgotten? Because Joe survived an Assassination attempt? Not alignment indicative, at least in a game where any Rithmatist can protect themselves. Because I don't have the exact same opinions or information as you? Neither of us are infallible, this game highlighting that fact perfectly. I by no means am confident that anyone is a Forgotten. Not even you, particularly if the DA kill wasn't an Assassin. But seriously. How else do you expect me to react when you keep trying to make me out as suspicious when I seriously don't believe I've done anything but good? If any other player were to do that to you when you're a villager, wouldn't that make you at least wonder about them?

I seriously feel like we do this to each other every game we play together. For one reason or another we never trust each other or expect the other to be playing us. I feel like this exact scenario happened in the mid-game of QF21, and didn't we both end up village there, too? One thing I'm having trouble understanding is why you haven't even PM'd me. You at least always do that much, but you haven't even bothered this game. Try to imagine that from my perspective.

Personally, I would feel a lot more comfortable if someone else could verify that DA was not killed by an Assassin before I return to my initial opinion of Lopen. I don't like it when anyone accuses me of being evil when I'm not, especially when they say they're confident about it. If I completely believed that Lopen was evil and that my being lynched would prove it, I would happily vote for myself, but with 6 villagers dead and likely 1 more dying to the Forgotten tonight, I don't think we can afford an 8th casualty.

Edited by Amanuensis
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55 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

I agree that 2 Assassins is unlikely, so if your contact is telling the truth, then DA would have to be the Forgotten kill. You seem to discount the Assassin lying about their role so I'll move forward assuming that you have evidence of the fact. I'm confused though. Why are you mentioning Stick is a villager in this post?

I have played enough games to realize that when a player accrues several votes with minimal opposition that something is fishy. I disagree that anyone had good reason to lynch Ecth, just like you disagree with anyone having good reason to lynch Stick. We both took the wrong stances on villagers. Can you explain to me what makes your situation any more innocent than mine?

We're reaching that stage in the game where Orlok talked about the game becoming unwinnable without us killing a Forgotten. I mentioned Ecth probably being village because I suspected if it didn't change, we might be too late. And sorry, Lopen, but I wasn't looking for a way to change my opinion of you. My initial opinion was entirely based on the fact that DA was killed by the Forgotten. Nothing you've said or done so far looked particularly villagery to me, so with Sart's clarification proving that there's no real way we can know what kill belongs to who, I realized it was possible that I was attacked C1 and that the Forgotten were happy to let us believe DA's death was on them.

The main thing I've been trying to figure out is if I was attacked C1, why wasn't I attacked C2. Earlier this turn a player messaged me saying that they protected me C2 and that they told one other player to make sure their action was accounted for. Can you confirm whether or not this is true, Lopen?

I seriously don't understand your reasoning here, man. What makes Joe or I absolutely have to be Forgotten? Because Joe survived an Assassination attempt? Not alignment indicative, at least in a game where any Rithmatist can protect themselves. Because I don't have the exact same opinions or information as you? Neither of us are infallible, this game highlighting that fact perfectly. I by no means am confident that anyone is a Forgotten. Not even you, particularly if the DA kill wasn't an Assassin. But seriously. How else do you expect me to react when you keep trying to make me out as suspicious when I seriously don't believe I've done anything but good? If any other player were to do that to you when you're a villager, wouldn't that make you at least wonder about them?

I seriously feel like we do this to each other every game we play together. For one reason or another we never trust each other or expect the other to be playing us. I feel like this exact scenario happened in the mid-game of QF21, and didn't we both end up village there, too? One thing I'm having trouble understanding is why you haven't even PM'd me. You at least always do that much, but you haven't even bothered this game. Try to imagine that from my perspective.

Personally, I would feel a lot more comfortable if someone else could verify that DA was not killed by an Assassin before I return to my initial opinion of Lopen. I don't like it when anyone accuses me of being evil when I'm not, especially when they say they're confident about it. If I completely believed that Lopen was evil and that my being lynched would prove it, I would happily vote for myself, but with 6 villagers dead and likely 1 more dying to the Forgotten tonight, I don't think we can afford an 8th casualty.

No evidence, but the claim seemed like an honest one all things considered. It would be very strange to claim Assassin and that you could kill right then unless you were being honest.

Uhh, I mentioned that I thought Stick was a villager because you said it looked like I "knew what the results of Stick's lynch would be." It was kind of strangely placed though. >> Anyways, my point was that I had said all along that I thought Stick was a villager, so me making assumptions based off of that doesn't seem strange to me.

I think there was some good reason to lynching Ecth(he was acting similarly to how he has acted as an eliminator in the past), and no good reasons to think he was a villager. Whereas in Stick's case, I can usually read her pretty well and had stuck up for her a lot even before she was getting lynched, so I didn't just all of a sudden say "this lynch feels wrong and I think they're a villager." Which is what you did.

Yes, a player did tell me they were protecting you C2.

You and Joe don't absolutely have to be Forgotten. I just think you both are by process of elimination and not seeing anything from either of you that makes me think you're village. You've both been consistently wrong with your suspicions and I don't know what either of you have done with your actions. You don't think Joe protecting himself when multiple players are suspicious of him is suspicious? Like he just said, he's not worried about being attacked by the Forgotten now that he's revealed his role because the village(me?) announced we're trying to kill him. Before I announced that, multiple other people had stated suspicion of Joe, so wouldn't he have come to the same conclusion about not being attacked before?

That's somewhat true. But usually one of us is an eliminator. >> I don't know why I didn't PM you. I've been busier than usual lately, trying to get ready for LG33 and I'm still playing LG32, but I have PM'd a lot of other players. I almost always had a specific reason for PM'ing them, and I just didn't really have a reason to PM you.

I doubt anyone can verify that. The only thing that would verify that is if you believed the word of the Assassin. Though, I had forgotten, they told me they scanned me with a Line of Making C1 and proved it by telling me my action. So unless they're a Forgotten and one of their teammates did that instead of them, they couldn't have killed DA. Of course, in that case, it'd be obvious that I'm not a Forgotten as well.

I would like to say that I am frustrated with not finding a Forgotten yet, and when I made my last post, I had just woken up to bad news(Ecth was village and no attack on Joe, plus another villager died to the Forgotten kill). So I was in a bad mood.

I'll go ahead and change my vote to Joe, since I think I'm more suspicious of him than you. Aman.

Ninja'd by Ornstein. No idea about him. He's active enough not to die from the inactivity filter, but he hasn't done much.

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11 hours ago, Elenion said:

I told someone in PM last cycle that I'd make another massive analysis post this cycle, this one about Seonid. Hopefully this doesn't turn out as long as my last one...

Well, first thing I notice is that Seonid doesn't post too much. :P

Not much to analyze here, other than the "I haven't seen anything suspicious yet". When Stick made a similar comment it aroused my suspicions, but that ended up leading to a mislynch. So I'm just going to rate this post Neutral.

Here Seonid attempts to put pressure on Lopen by suggesting that Lopen make a claim of what he did C1. However, this would be a definite bad idea, because that would tell everyone whether Lopen was currently Warding odds or evens, whether he's got a role that would have him make any kind of nontraditional lines (Assassin and Duelist both use lines that I can't see being very common among villagers, so if Lopen had made one of those it would be a giveaway to his role), and what action he was prohibited from doing C2. For this kind of action-fishing, I'm rating this post Elim.

Here's what that revealed action could have told the elims about Lopen, in greater detail:

Claim:                         Info that would be gathered (other than just odd/even):

Warding                      Vigoring him would have be useless

Forbiddance               Vulnerable to elim-kill that night unless protected by another player

Making                       Possibly an Artist, may be a good player to PM for info

Vigor                           Definitely a Duelist

Revocation                 Definitely an Assassin

Silencing                     Because of no vote being negated, he must have had a strong suspicion to make him use non-upgraded Silencing

Nothing detectable     Definitely a non-Rithmatist

Here Seonid makes a backtrack, despite assuring Rand that he thought it all through beforehand: he goes from last post's call for Lopen to claim in-thread, to suggest Lopen either claim in-thread and reflip (still a bad idea, because an action discloses other things than just odd/even, as I listed above) or PM Seonid about it. I'm calling this Slightly Elim for the backtrack while telling Rand otherwise.

However, I do like that Seonid isn't willing to let up without hearing from Lopen again. It fits with Seonid's stated goal of putting "pressure" on Lopen. So does Seonid asking any Lopen-scanners not to claim until Lopen has responded. This reads Slightly Village.

First off, Seonid confesses to being active in PMs but lurking the thread. Having PM contacts is not alignment-indicative, and neither is admitting that you're lurking. Neutral.

Second, Seonid chooses not to vote on Aman despite his gut. Had he done that earlier in the cycle, he would have had time to vote on Aman and switch it off if nobody else thought the same. But the way things turned out, Seonid voiced suspicion of Aman without actually voting on him or providing any evidence that might have gotten Aman in trouble, so that could be a distancing tactic. Slightly Elim, for the possiblity of distancing. Related, Seonid's voting on Ecth was self-preservation, and despite the vote-count at that time not putting Seonid in much danger (4 on Ecth, 1 on each of me, Seonid, Ornstein and PK, with talk focusing primarily on PK) I can't fault him for caution. Neutral.

That's all of Seonid's whopping 4 posts. For some reason I thought he had posted more. Tally:

Elim: 1

Slightly Elim: 2

Neutral: 3

Slightly Village: 1

Village: 0

And I think I've just found my vote for this round. Seonid

@Seonid Do you agree or disagree with my analysis?

Nothing wrong with your analysis of my posts. Your conclusion is wrong,  but that's the fault of the limited data set,  not your analysis.

Mostly I'm posting off the seat of my pants.  My call for Lopen to reveal was done in ignorance of several relevant rules. If I'd read through the roles more closely beforehand, I'd have handled it differently (especially doing it more in PMs). Mostly I just saw a place I thought could contribute to discussion without needing to spend more time than I had available on analysis.

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43 minutes ago, TheMightyLopen said:
 
 
 
 
 

No evidence, but the claim seemed like an honest one all things considered. It would be very strange to claim Assassin and that you could kill right then unless you were being honest.

Uhh, I mentioned that I thought Stick was a villager because you said it looked like I "knew what the results of Stick's lynch would be." It was kind of strangely placed though. >> Anyways, my point was that I had said all along that I thought Stick was a villager, so me making assumptions based off of that doesn't seem strange to me.

I think there was some good reason to lynching Ecth(he was acting similarly to how he has acted as an eliminator in the past), and no good reasons to think he was a villager. Whereas in Stick's case, I can usually read her pretty well and had stuck up for her a lot even before she was getting lynched, so I didn't just all of a sudden say "this lynch feels wrong and I think they're a villager." Which is what you did.

Yes, a player did tell me they were protecting you C2.

You and Joe don't absolutely have to be Forgotten. I just think you both are by process of elimination and not seeing anything from either of you that makes me think you're village. You've both been consistently wrong with your suspicions and I don't know what either of you have done with your actions. You don't think Joe protecting himself when multiple players are suspicious of him is suspicious? Like he just said, he's not worried about being attacked by the Forgotten now that he's revealed his role because the village(me?) announced we're trying to kill him. Before I announced that, multiple other people had stated suspicion of Joe, so wouldn't he have come to the same conclusion about not being attacked before?

That's somewhat true. But usually one of us is an eliminator. >> I don't know why I didn't PM you. I've been busier than usual lately, trying to get ready for LG33 and I'm still playing LG32, but I have PM'd a lot of other players. I almost always had a specific reason for PM'ing them, and I just didn't really have a reason to PM you.

I doubt anyone can verify that. The only thing that would verify that is if you believed the word of the Assassin. Though, I had forgotten, they told me they scanned me with a Line of Making C1 and proved it by telling me my action. So unless they're a Forgotten and one of their teammates did that instead of them, they couldn't have killed DA. Of course, in that case, it'd be obvious that I'm not a Forgotten as well.

I would like to say that I am frustrated with not finding a Forgotten yet, and when I made my last post, I had just woken up to bad news(Ecth was village and no attack on Joe, plus another villager died to the Forgotten kill). So I was in a bad mood.

I'll go ahead and change my vote to Joe, since I think I'm more suspicious of him than you. Aman.

Ninja'd by Ornstein. No idea about him. He's active enough not to die from the inactivity filter, but he hasn't done much.

I kind of disagree, but it depends a lot on when you got the claim. If it was before Sart revealed that no one is alerted when a Line of Forbiddence saves a player from a kill, then I wouldn't doubt they're honest, but after? It might be worth the risk if it gets them in your good graces for a little while, at least.

Okay, I understand what you meant by that now. I mean, that's fair that you were saying that since the beginning but that doesn't really alleviate any worries for me. There's no reason why a Forgotten wouldn't defend a villager, especially if they voted for that player's opposition, as it adds reasoning for them killing the other and, as Stick herself pointed out, makes her a clear target for the C2 lynch while also giving you the power to argue it and say I told you so after.

In my honest opinion, nothing Ecth did this game was specifically what he does as an eliminator He pretty much behaves the same way no matter what his alignment is. Like you are with Stick, I'm good at reading Ecth's tone and, I'm pretty sure, have accurately pinned his alignment in every game we've played together so far. Although a lot of the reason I think he was innocent had little to do with that. It was the circumstances. Votes were going all over the place and none were being latched onto, and then one vote on Ecth pops up and suddenly a ton accumulate. That on top of the fact that he had so little content in this game, I think it was joined by the Forgotten because it would continue to deprive us of information, which seems to be a reoccurring theme if you look at their kills so far.

Can you start off by explaining why you trust the players you do? I remember seeing a long list of names last turn and about half of those players I've seen even less evidence of being innocent compared to me. I disagree with me being consistently wrong with my suspicions, too. Most of my suspicions are still alive (given I'm basically suspicious of everyone). The only player I really have reason to believe is innocent is you right now, and that's hinging on DA being the Forgotten kill. Anyway, back to my original point of this paragraph. You say process of elimination makes you suspicious of me, but where's the work? Without me being able to see what lead you to believe it I can hardly defend myself, and the fact of the matter is I know you're wrong, no matter what's lead you to believe it.

Honestly I think we need to relook those stats because I feel like there's been plenty of games where we were both village. One or the other being evil might have been more accurate towards the beginning of our time here, but it is more than a little frustrating when the only reason you suspect me is because you're "not evil." Especially at this stage in the game, we can't afford this bickering if we're both innocent.

I mean, okay, but telling you your action doesn't really discount them being Forgotten. They have teammates to share information and abilities with, and it's not like eliminators don't lie about what they specifically do. The best way to prove it would be if there were two kills at the same time someone Maked them using Vigor. Honestly, the fact that the Assassin failed to kill Joe and Joe revealed himself as a Guardian could just be a ploy. But I'm not aware of this player's identity or what's been said in PMs, exactly, so I just have what has happened in thread to go off of. Did you have anyone watch the Assassin to see if they really were doing what they were doing?

I'm sorry you were frustrated. Maybe if I was more active last cycle something could have changed. Just try to remember it's only a game, yeah? No need to be in a bad mood about it. I need to go eat lunch, but when I get back I'm going to give my thoughts on every player currently alive, because at this point lynching another villager will probably cost us the game. I'll try to be back within the hour.

EDIT: Oh, and if anyone has used a Line of Making on me so far this game, can you tell that information to someone.

Edited by Amanuensis
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53 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

I kind of disagree, but it depends a lot on when you got the claim. If it was before Sart revealed that no one is alerted when a Line of Forbiddence saves a player from a kill, then I wouldn't doubt they're honest, but after? It might be worth the risk if it gets them in your good graces for a little while, at least.

Okay, I understand what you meant by that now. I mean, that's fair that you were saying that since the beginning but that doesn't really alleviate any worries for me. There's no reason why a Forgotten wouldn't defend a villager, especially if they voted for that player's opposition, as it adds reasoning for them killing the other and, as Stick herself pointed out, makes her a clear target for the C2 lynch while also giving you the power to argue it and say I told you so after.

In my honest opinion, nothing Ecth did this game was specifically what he does as an eliminator He pretty much behaves the same way no matter what his alignment is. Like you are with Stick, I'm good at reading Ecth's tone and, I'm pretty sure, have accurately pinned his alignment in every game we've played together so far. Although a lot of the reason I think he was innocent had little to do with that. It was the circumstances. Votes were going all over the place and none were being latched onto, and then one vote on Ecth pops up and suddenly a ton accumulate. That on top of the fact that he had so little content in this game, I think it was joined by the Forgotten because it would continue to deprive us of information, which seems to be a reoccurring theme if you look at their kills so far.

Can you start off by explaining why you trust the players you do? I remember seeing a long list of names last turn and about half of those players I've seen even less evidence of being innocent compared to me. I disagree with me being consistently wrong with my suspicions, too. Most of my suspicions are still alive (given I'm basically suspicious of everyone). The only player I really have reason to believe is innocent is you right now, and that's hinging on DA being the Forgotten kill. Anyway, back to my original point of this paragraph. You say process of elimination makes you suspicious of me, but where's the work? Without me being able to see what lead you to believe it I can hardly defend myself, and the fact of the matter is I know you're wrong, no matter what's lead you to believe it.

Honestly I think we need to relook those stats because I feel like there's been plenty of games where we were both village. One or the other being evil might have been more accurate towards the beginning of our time here, but it is more than a little frustrating when the only reason you suspect me is because you're "not evil." Especially at this stage in the game, we can't afford this bickering if we're both innocent.

I mean, okay, but telling you your action doesn't really discount them being Forgotten. They have teammates to share information and abilities with, and it's not like eliminators don't lie about what they specifically do. The best way to prove it would be if there were two kills at the same time someone Maked them using Vigor. Honestly, the fact that the Assassin failed to kill Joe and Joe revealed himself as a Guardian could just be a ploy. But I'm not aware of this player's identity or what's been said in PMs, exactly, so I just have what has happened in thread to go off of. Did you have anyone watch the Assassin to see if they really were doing what they were doing?

I'm sorry you were frustrated. Maybe if I was more active last cycle something could have changed. Just try to remember it's only a game, yeah? No need to be in a bad mood about it. I need to go eat lunch, but when I get back I'm going to give my thoughts on every player currently alive, because at this point lynching another villager will probably cost us the game. I'll try to be back within the hour.

EDIT: Oh, and if anyone has used a Line of Making on me so far this game, can you tell that information to someone.

It was after Sart's clarification.

I trust Brightness Radiant because I'm positive I'd be able to figure out if she was evil and all she's done so far feels like she's village. She is my sister after all. Frozen Mint, I had a strong gut read of early on, and also we've talked some in PM's. At this point though, I'm really starting to doubt a lot of my reads. HH, I can usually read pretty well, and I think he's sounded like a villager for the most part, plus he's been pretty open in PM's with me. Jondesu, not sure about, I have a weak village read on, but mostly just from gut. A little bit of reasons from PM's, but not much. Orlok, I thought his posts from D1 were village sounding. Admittedly, I can't read him too well, so I might be wrong. Other than that, I still don't know what to think about Elenion, you, Seonid, Joe, Ornstein, or Randuir. I think I had Randuir on my trust list before, but like I said, I'm doubting my reads and I don't have strong reasons to think he's village.

Maybe so. That's not why I suspect you though. I got a bad read from the tone of your posts. You said you were sure I was village just from the elims killing DA, which kind of rubbed me the wrong way, because I get paranoid when someone is really confident about me being village as early as that. Then I felt like you were protecting Joe by drawing attention to Stick over him(while you didn't vote on Stick, the wording of that post makes it seem like you're more suspicious of her than Joe).

I never said they couldn't be a Forgotten. Just that they likely didn't kill DA. I do suspect them, though I'm not sure how much. It would be a risk for them to tell me they're attacking Joe if they weren't sure they'd have some way to prove it. So I feel like it's likely that Joe is a Guardian and that they are an Assassin. They could be teammates though, which is why they were fine with attacking Joe right now, because they knew he could protect himself. I didn't have anyone watch them though. I haven't coordinated things nearly that good. Like I said to begin the game, I don't have as much time because I'm still alive in LG32 and I'm getting ready for LG33.

I know it's only a game, but when I do invest a good amount of my time in something and nothing good comes out of it, I get frustrated. Plus last Cycle a lot of players were inactive. That, and I'm always grumpy when I wake up. :P

Since I feel like it's almost impossible for the Forgotten to not know at this point, and because I don't want us to waste any more time on me, I'll just reveal that I'm a Non-Rithmatist. I was scanned with a Line of Making by 3 separate players, 2 of which were Artists.

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33 minutes ago, TheMightyLopen said:

I think I had Randuir on my trust list before, but like I said, I'm doubting my reads and I don't have strong reasons to think he's village.

I believe I was on that list partly because someone you trust had used a line of making on me in a previous cycle. Feel free to ask someone to do so again in a future cycle if you still aren't sure.

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Well,  if Lopen isn't keeping things hush hush, I can give more details. I an the non- Artist that scanned Lopen. I did so d1, and could not verify that he hadn't killed DA. Which i found to be disconcerting, given his loudly stated protests to the contrary.

So I confronted him about it.  And then got in contact with of the Artists who had scanned him.  And then didn't want to say much more in thread to avoid giving away privileged information.  So there it is.

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PRAISE THE MASTER! I WAS IN THE PROCESS OF POSTING THIS WHEN MY INTERNET CUT OFF AND I THOUGHT I HAD LOST IT FOREVER. SO GLAD I DON'T HAVE TO REDO THIS!

3 hours ago, TheMightyLopen said:
 
 
 
 

It was after Sart's clarification.

I trust Brightness Radiant because I'm positive I'd be able to figure out if she was evil and all she's done so far feels like she's village. She is my sister after all. Frozen Mint, I had a strong gut read of early on, and also we've talked some in PM's. At this point though, I'm really starting to doubt a lot of my reads. HH, I can usually read pretty well, and I think he's sounded like a villager for the most part, plus he's been pretty open in PM's with me. Jondesu, not sure about, I have a weak village read on, but mostly just from gut. A little bit of reasons from PM's, but not much. Orlok, I thought his posts from D1 were village sounding. Admittedly, I can't read him too well, so I might be wrong. Other than that, I still don't know what to think about Elenion, you, Seonid, Joe, Ornstein, or Randuir. I think I had Randuir on my trust list before, but like I said, I'm doubting my reads and I don't have strong reasons to think he's village.

Maybe so. That's not why I suspect you though. I got a bad read from the tone of your posts. You said you were sure I was village just from the elims killing DA, which kind of rubbed me the wrong way, because I get paranoid when someone is really confident about me being village as early as that. Then I felt like you were protecting Joe by drawing attention to Stick over him(while you didn't vote on Stick, the wording of that post makes it seem like you're more suspicious of her than Joe).

I never said they couldn't be a Forgotten. Just that they likely didn't kill DA. I do suspect them, though I'm not sure how much. It would be a risk for them to tell me they're attacking Joe if they weren't sure they'd have some way to prove it. So I feel like it's likely that Joe is a Guardian and that they are an Assassin. They could be teammates though, which is why they were fine with attacking Joe right now, because they knew he could protect himself. I didn't have anyone watch them though. I haven't coordinated things nearly that good. Like I said to begin the game, I don't have as much time because I'm still alive in LG32 and I'm getting ready for LG33.

I know it's only a game, but when I do invest a good amount of my time in something and nothing good comes out of it, I get frustrated. Plus last Cycle a lot of players were inactive. That, and I'm always grumpy when I wake up. :P

Since I feel like it's almost impossible for the Forgotten to not know at this point, and because I don't want us to waste any more time on me, I'll just reveal that I'm a Non-Rithmatist. I was scanned with a Line of Making by 3 separate players, 2 of which were Artists.

Yeah, I don't really suspect Brightness, so that's fine. I've read Mint's posts a couple times and I don't think there's enough there to substantiate trust, but I can't say anything about PMs. I was a little suspicious of HH when I thought Stick might be evil, but I think I'm leaning village for him as well, now. I feel the same about Jondesu, Orlok and Rand that I do Mint. I'm going to probably have to go over all of their posts thoroughly before I take any firm stances, but the main problem with them is I need more to accurately read them. I'm actually becoming increasingly suspicious of Len, especially after what happened with Ecth last turn. Seonid I've been wondering about for a while now, and I've actually got a theory regarding him that I'll talk about in a minute. Ornstein I'm very suspicious of now because of his vote on me. If he was Forgotten then he'd very likely be hearing my name and how dangerous I am mentioned several times now, to the point that if he saw a player most people are reading village on voting for me, he'd be eager to join in on.

Can you point out what it is about the tone of my posts that you think are suspicious. And yeah, what's the problem with that? I seriously don't think you'd openly declare that you knew DA's role the same turn that you kill him. I really don't believe that's the type of ploy you'd think of naturally, nor do I think you'd have slipped up by telling us when you didn't mean to. Of all the people saying they think you're village for any other reason, how does logic rub you the wrong way? And okay. I was more suspicious of Stick than Joe. My intention was not to draw attention away from him, but to lynch the player I thought there was actual evidence of being evil. Joe hadn't really done anything at that point of the game. Stick, however, had been saved on four separate occasions from the lynch, by four different people. I honestly believed her and one of those who saved her could be evil. I was wrong, just like you were wrong about Ecth. Couldn't the same thing be said about the players who voted on Ecth drawing attention away from Ornstein or Seonid?

That bit about teammates is what I'm trying to say. If an Assassin kill is indistinguishable from a Forgotten kill, and no one is alerted when someone is protected by a Line of Forbiddence, it really wouldn't be difficult to have one Forgotten claim Assassin and the other claim self-protection. Which is why I'm just advising you to have one of your Artist contacts scan them or at least use a Line of Making on them when they're supposed to kill to make sure they're actually using Vigor. I would have, but for whatever reason no one has really PM'd me this game :(

Alright, fair enough. I wasn't able to be very active myself, so I understand where you're coming from. Which is why I suggest players try to do what I do when I'm active: constantly ping / quote people and ask them specific questions to get the dialogue going. Some people get distracted by other threads and such, so it's important to keep them constantly looking at this one, and that when they do, they have something important to respond to.

I really wish I knew that sooner. I wouldn't have wasted my time questioning you if I knew you were a Non-Rithmatist. I'll probably PM you my role shortly, as well as the actions I've taken so far, that way if anyone has used a Line of Making on me and wants to come forward to you to confirm that what I say is true, you'll at least have that to consider. That being said, I think you should be suspicious of one of those players, because considering you're village, I would expect the Forgotten to scan you earlier rather than later, particularly if they're an Artist. Was PK one of them?

3 hours ago, randuir said:
 
 
 

I believe I was on that list partly because someone you trust had used a line of making on me in a previous cycle. Feel free to ask someone to do so again in a future cycle if you still aren't sure.

Only one Forgotten needs to put in a kill, and to be honest, it probably isn't someone who's been active or considered particularly threatening. That's another reason why I'm suspicious of Ornstein. Has anyone used a Line of Making on him?

2 hours ago, Seonid said:
 
 
 

Well,  if Lopen isn't keeping things hush hush, I can give more details. I an the non- Artist that scanned Lopen. I did so d1, and could not verify that he hadn't killed DA. Which i found to be disconcerting, given his loudly stated protests to the contrary.

So I confronted him about it.  And then got in contact with of the Artists who had scanned him.  And then didn't want to say much more in thread to avoid giving away privileged information.  So there it is.

So yeah, basically my theory right now is one of the players who scanned Lopen is a Forgotten. I explained C1 or C2 to you why Lopen was a high priority scan from either alignment, although I do wonder why the Forgotten haven't attacked him knowing he's a confirmed village-role.

Given Seonid specifically tried to cast suspicion on him could mean that was the Forgotten's plan, but then it got derailed by village scanner confirming he had no Specialization and Sart's clarification than Non-Rithmatists and Acid-Specialists are guaranteed good.

Edited by Amanuensis
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Interesting theory, Aman. Full marks for effort.

A little problem with your timing. Sart confirmed that there were no Forgotten non-specialists C1, while my pressure on Lopen didn't occur until early C2. Lopen didn't even respond to my PM until C3, by which time I had already guessed his role.

Of course, it doesn't clear me - but your particular theory fails to match up to facts. From an objective standpoint, I can't think of a way to clear myself. I can have the Artist scan me to verify my role. But that only speaks to role distribution probabilities. I got nothing. Looking at things without my personal data points, I'm probably the most legitimately suspicious player at the moment. I know I'm not evil, but I doubt that matters. Lynch me if you like. We're getting close to dangerous territory, and I'd rather keep my village body alive and using Lines of Warding to keep the conversions out, but I'll understand if you don't feel the same way.

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We really need to get our lynch discussions going a lot earlier in the Cycle. Once again, not very many players have posted or voted. I'd do some analysis, but I'm very tired and have no energy to do so.

Aman, I'll try and respond to your post tomorrow. I suppose my suspicions of you have been lessened some from your responses this Cycle.

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I've been getting all of my detachments equipment ready for a semi-annual inspection, so I haven't been able to focus on this game like I wanted this evening. I don't know if I'll get a post up tonight because the inspection itself is early tomorrow, but after I'm done with it I'm going to make the game my top priority, because we need to figure this out.

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I no longer believe that the Elims lurk in the shadows. Perhaps one is among the lesser actives, maybe Mint or Ornstein, but the rest lie with the main contributors. I have doubts that Joe is evil, just based on the not very reliable trend of everyone that I mentioned in previous cycles turned out to be Village. So now I turn pointing fingers to those that speak.

I, who is known for inadequate analysis, must now do some...

sometime. I might not. I'll just help us out by putting up a vote count, since there is not one yet.

Joe (1): Lopen

Seonid (1): Len 

Aman (1): Ornstein

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Okay, I mentioned 6 people that I wanted to take a further look at. Since Lopen has expanded his claim to the entire thread, I won't bother including him (He'd told me last cycle, and a third party confirmed it, so I don't have any reason to distrust him).

So, let's start with @Amanuensis. His posts in the first two cycle seem to be typical for him, with lots of analysis, involvement and opinions. He himself pointed out to brightness that that's not particularly alignment indicative. As I said before, I don't really disagree with anything he said, but he hasn't collared an elim yet either, so these posts aren't really alignment indicative.

It starts to get interesting in the last post of C3, where he accused Lopen. I'll try not to bring up any points that Lopen hasn't already discussed with Aman.

The strange thing about his accusation is  Amanuensis' conclusion that DA must have been an assassin kill, and therefore he himself must have been the target of the elim kill. I find this an odd conclusion, because it requires a villager to have found a reason to kill DA, and the eliminators to not have anticipated self-protection on C1. Aman also considers the possibility of him having been a 2 target for the elim as well, which would have required a second assassin to attack SB5 (who, granted, might have been a valid assassin target). I can think of 4 reasons why Aman might have presented this reasoning, and stuck with it even after I pointed out that he wasn't the only one to use a line of forbiddance in C1.

  1. Aman is the assassin that attacked DA. I think this is highly unlikely, as Aman would have required an actual reason to do so. I'd also expect him to somehow get this information to the thread, as he understands the importance of sharing information.
  2. Aman has been PM'd by the assassin that killed DA. I think this is also unlikely, as Aman would probably have shared this info with the thread to support his reasoning.
  3. Aman is an Elim, and provided this idea to either sow confusion or because he knew DA had been an assassin kill and was hoping the assassin would step forward to support him. I'd say this is reasonably likely, especially the second of the two stratagems. If I had been an elim in that situation, I'd definitely have considered it.
  4. Aman is a villager who decided that DA was an illogical first attack by the forgotten, knew he had protected himself, and took those two facts to the logical extreme. This is also a decent possiblity.

Anyway, there are a couple of other small things that I think are odd in Aman's recent posts (FE: he said no one has brought protecting themselves up in PM's, but also claims he hasn't really had any PM's), but these are not necessarily alignment indicative. Overall I'm still unsure about Aman's alignment.  I think we've got better targets for this cycle though.

Next up is @A Joe in the Bush. As I said before, I mostly had an elim gut-read on him, as his posts didn't seem particularly alignment indicative to me. However, there are some things I'd like to highlight in his most recent post (emphasis mine).

On 4/24/2017 at 7:56 AM, A Joe in the Bush said:

Tired. Stressful day at work. I'm a guardian, i guarded myself last night. I'm comfortable revealing that becuase the elims won't bother killing me since the village has announced it's trying to kill me. But I've reflipped my coin to decide if I'm warding the village tonight.

I don't see why two 'every other night' illers are unlikely, when everyone* is a 'self protect every other night'

not about me

Please lynch me. it'll stop you from tunneling on me, and my activity is only going to stagnate and decrease from here on out. I'll be pulling a 16hour all night shift on tuesday. i did not know this. I wil try to maintain activity until my death. either way i won't be guarding myself any more. I'm not a forgotten. no clue about Aman. Haven't read any of his posts in the depth necessary to actually analyse him. 'night. I'm going home.

At this point, we really need to lynch an elim. Joe knows this. This makes me think that part might have been intentionally put in to make us second-guess ourselves regarding his alignment, and to make us reconsider lynching him. After all, he's offering himself up, and no elim would do that, right?

Or maybe this is genuine, and I'm being overly paranoid. Anyway, next!

I don't have much to add to my earlier observations on @OrlokTsubodai. He isn't as active as I've seen him in other games, but between running LG32 and the general busy-ness he talked about in his last post I'm willing to give him a pass for now.

Next is @Jondesu. I had a Neutral read on him before, but there's something that irks me about his posts in C3. He started out by voting on Paranoid King, then switches to ecthelion to 'make sure his vote isn't wasted' (though his reasoning for why ecth was suspicious wasn't bad, it's just the mention of not wasting his vote that strikes me as odd). When asked if he's willing to switch back, his response amounts to 'Yes, but I don't want to be the first to change my vote'. Given that he also states that he'd be back before turnover, I see no reason for him not to switch his vote if he was more supicious of PK. If no one had come by to break the tie then he could always have switched back to ecth. This reasoning makes me wonder whether he wanted to keep supporting the ecth lynch, knowing that they'd take down PK anyway (maybe the elims had good guesses for what warding group both of them where in, and it would work best to lynch ecth and kill PK?). It's not exactly the be-all and end-all of evidence, but it makes me wary of him.

So, last up is @Elenion. I've said before that I'm inclined to trust him based on his planning in C1. The rest of his posts seem more Neutral to me, and there's nothing that jumps out to me as furthering an elim-agenda.

So, that's it for the six I'd mentioned previously. However, @Seonid has been on my radar for a while now (read my previous posts on him if you want to read more of my opinion on him). From his most recent post:

8 hours ago, Seonid said:

Interesting theory, Aman. Full marks for effort.

A little problem with your timing. Sart confirmed that there were no Forgotten non-specialists C1, while my pressure on Lopen didn't occur until early C2. Lopen didn't even respond to my PM until C3, by which time I had already guessed his role.

Of course, it doesn't clear me - but your particular theory fails to match up to facts. From an objective standpoint, I can't think of a way to clear myself. I can have the Artist scan me to verify my role. But that only speaks to role distribution probabilities. I got nothing. Looking at things without my personal data points, I'm probably the most legitimately suspicious player at the moment. I know I'm not evil, but I doubt that matters. Lynch me if you like. We're getting close to dangerous territory, and I'd rather keep my village body alive and using Lines of Warding to keep the conversions out, but I'll understand if you don't feel the same way.

I really don't like this dare to lynch him any more than I did the one from Joe. A villager in this situation would (should?) be trying to find ways to prove his innocence to prevent a mis-lynch, not daring us to lynch him despite his knowledge that he is innocent.

So in summary, I've got a bit of a village read on Elenion, a Neutral read on Orlok, am Wary of Jondesu and Aman, and suspicious of Joe and Seonid. I'm picking Seonid over Joe as my suspicion of him are founded a bit more on things he said, rather than just gut.

 

Edited by randuir
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2 hours ago, randuir said:

So, let's start with @Amanuensis. His posts in the first two cycle seem to be typical for him, with lots of analysis, involvement and opinions. He himself pointed out to brightness that that's not particularly alignment indicative. As I said before, I don't really disagree with anything he said, but he hasn't collared an elim yet either, so these posts aren't really alignment indicative.

It starts to get interesting in the last post of C3, where he accused Lopen. I'll try not to bring up any points that Lopen hasn't already discussed with Aman.

The strange thing about his accusation is  Amanuensis' conclusion that DA must have been an assassin kill, and therefore he himself must have been the target of the elim kill. I find this an odd conclusion, because it requires a villager to have found a reason to kill DA, and the eliminators to not have anticipated self-protection on C1. Aman also considers the possibility of him having been a 2 target for the elim as well, which would have required a second assassin to attack SB5 (who, granted, might have been a valid assassin target). I can think of 4 reasons why Aman might have presented this reasoning, and stuck with it even after I pointed out that he wasn't the only one to use a line of forbiddance in C1.

  1. Aman is the assassin that attacked DA. I think this is highly unlikely, as Aman would have required an actual reason to do so. I'd also expect him to somehow get this information to the thread, as he understands the importance of sharing information.
  2. Aman has been PM'd by the assassin that killed DA. I think this is also unlikely, as Aman would probably have shared this info with the thread to support his reasoning.
  3. Aman is an Elim, and provided this idea to either sow confusion or because he knew DA had been an assassin kill and was hoping the assassin would step forward to support him. I'd say this is reasonably likely, especially the second of the two stratagems. If I had been an elim in that situation, I'd definitely have considered it.
  4. Aman is a villager who decided that DA was an illogical first attack by the forgotten, knew he had protected himself, and took those two facts to the logical extreme. This is also a decent possiblity.

Anyway, there are a couple of other small things that I think are odd in Aman's recent posts (FE: he said no one has brought protecting themselves up in PM's, but also claims he hasn't really had any PM's), but these are not necessarily alignment indicative. Overall I'm still unsure about Aman's alignment.  I think we've got better targets for this cycle though.

It wasn't a conclusion. It was a theory that at the time I believe made a lot more sense than the Forgotten killing DA. Some vigilantes start the game off killing, and not everyone has a logical reason for it (bases it on gut, like PK in MR13) or does it just to be a troll (not going to mention names, but I think you know who I'm referring to). Also I don't believe I said that SB was attacked by an Assassin. I was asking why they didn't attack me that turn instead, as they would have known I was vulnerable. As for the others who used Forbiddence, it really depends on who they are, but I am very frequently attacked early by elims, as is Lopen and Orlok, so whenever I live this long I begin to question why.

It's the 4th option but I do not agree that it's a logical extreme. It was a reasonable theory at the time but is no longer likely.

I didn't say no one brought it up in PMs. I said I doubted it since no one had said something like "hey maybe one of these kills isn't the Forgotten."

But yeah. Wish me luck on my inspection. I'll analyze the players I'm most suspicious of after.

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8 hours ago, Amanuensis said:

It wasn't a conclusion. It was a theory that at the time I believe made a lot more sense than the Forgotten killing DA.

You sounded a lot more sure in the post in which you first brought it up:

Quote

Last turn I was acting under the assumption that someone would be informed if there was a failed attack, whether it be the thread, the player saved by a Line of Forbiddence, or the player who drew the LoF (if it was a different person). I now know I was wrong and I'm afraid that misjudgment may have cost us the game. DA was a very unusual kill for eliminators make on the first day of a game, so I wrote it off as them trying to deprive us of useful information as well as a poor attempt to frame Lopen. I am now convinced, however, that it was just a happy coincidence for them, and that the real target was protected that night.

 

Quote

Also I don't believe I said that SB was attacked by an Assassin. I was asking why they didn't attack me that turn instead, as they would have known I was vulnerable. 

You're right, you didn't actually say this. You'd said you'd found SB a very odd kill, and was later wondering why they didn't attack you in C2(relevant quotes in the spoiler-tag), and I extrapolated from that. I should have marked that more clearly.

Spoiler
Quote

At first I was thinking it's because the Forgotten discovered a more important target via an Artist, which makes sense given that Silver was a Duelist, which, in my opinion, is the most dangerous role for the Forgotten. The problem with this theory is that Silver, like DA, is an unusual player to scan, and as Sart just Ninja'd me, didn't even use an action on the first night, which an Artist should have also learned with his specialization. While I do still think the Forgotten could have an Artist, it doesn't make any logical sense for them to have checked on SB in the very beginning or waste a kill on him when there was a chance of him dying via inactivity.

 

On 24-4-2017 at 4:09 PM, Amanuensis said:

The main thing I've been trying to figure out is if I was attacked C1, why wasn't I attacked C2. Earlier this turn a player messaged me saying that they protected me C2 and that they told one other player to make sure their action was accounted for. Can you confirm whether or not this is true, Lopen?

 

 

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I said I doubted it since no one had said something like "hey maybe one of these kills isn't the Forgotten."

I kinda brought it up in the beginning of C2, but didn't think about it too much after that. You did mention PM's in that last post of C3 (relevant quote in spoiler-tag), but I might have been reading too much that, as this interpretation would match that comment as well.

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I wouldn't be surprised if other players did the same but since no one else has come forward or at least mentioned someone bringing it up in a PM, I'm guessing that's because other Rithmatists used different actions.

 

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But yeah. Wish me luck on my inspection. I'll analyze the players I'm most suspicious of after.

Good luck with the inspection!

Edited by randuir
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It was supposed to start 27 minutes ago but my boss is running late >> and yeah, I honestly thought I had a "EUREKA!" moment when I first developed the theory. It all made a ton of sense to me and I was happy that I figured it out when I did, because I thought it would get our first Forgotten killed. At this point, it's obvious the kill on DA was the Forgotten as otherwise the Assassin would tell someone, so likely whoever claimed Assassin to Lopen is the real one, unless there were just no Assassins to begin with this game (due to there being 2+ Non-Rithmatist roles).

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