Orlok Tsubodai

Long Game (3)2: Pulling on Strings

963 posts in this topic

56 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

 

  • @Ecthelion III I'm pretty dang certain is village, plus considering how often he dies early in games and how upsetting I know that can be, I don't want to help perpetuate that.

Amanuensis, if you have time, could you elaborate a bit on what makes you think Ecth is village? I've got him as neutral based on the posts he's made.

Quote

Day One Vote Tally

(0) OmeGasterArraenae

(0) ArraenaeAmanuensis

(2) SartSartAmanuensis

(0) ElenionJondesu

(0) little wilsonAmanuensis, Mark IV

(1) Drake MarshallTheMightyLopen

(3) Mark IVArinianJondesuEcthelion III

(1) Aonar FaileasSilverblade5

(1) Ecthelion IIIMark IV

I'd just like to give a warning regrading the current vote distribution. From the talk on uber-metals, I concluded that these basically function as normal metals, but better? Uber-pewter and uber-copper seem to be taken for granted, but something we should consider right now is the possibility of uber-zinc (2 soothings, possibly) or uber-brass (2 vote-moves, possible, but pretty powerful I think), or a combination uber-emotional allomancy (1 vote-move, 1 soothing). Based on that, I think we should do one of three things:

  1. Make sure one person has enough votes that it can't be easily manipulated away.
  2. Drop all votes and go for a no-lynch. all votes need to be dropped to prevent some crafty rioting from creating a lynch where there was none.
  3. Leave things as they are, and use it as an information gathering tool on the presence or absence of emotional allomancy powers from the inquisitor.

If we decide to not go for option 2, I'll make sure to put a vote in later today. I'm not convinced about anyone's guilt yet, though I'm somewhat suspicious of Mark at this point. I'll do a reread of the thread to see if anyone else stands out to me before placing that vote.

Edited by randuir
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4 hours ago, randuir said:
 
 
 
 
 

Amanuensis, if you have time, could you elaborate a bit on what makes you think Ecth is village? I've got him as neutral based on the posts he's made.

It's hard for me to say. There's the statistics, of course, but specifically for me it's a tonal thing. I'm not sure when it began, but most of the games I play with Ecth, I get a feeling for what alignment he is very quickly, and so far it hasn't been wrong. I've actually been experiencing the same thing with Joe, lately, so I've been learning to put more faith in my gut.

4 hours ago, randuir said:
 
 
 
 
 

I'd just like to give a warning regrading the current vote distribution. From the talk on uber-metals, I concluded that these basically function as normal metals, but better? Uber-pewter and uber-copper seem to be taken for granted, but something we should consider right now is the possibility of uber-zinc (2 soothings, possibly) or uber-brass (2 vote-moves, possible, but pretty powerful I think), or a combination uber-emotional allomancy (1 vote-move, 1 soothing). Based on that, I think we should do one of three things:

  1. Make sure one person has enough votes that it can't be easily manipulated away.
  2. Drop all votes and go for a no-lynch. all votes need to be dropped to prevent some crafty rioting from creating a lynch where there was none.
  3. Leave things as they are, and use it as an information gathering tool on the presence or absence of emotional allomancy powers from the inquisitor.

If we decide to not go for option 2, I'll make sure to put a vote in later today. I'm not convinced about anyone's guilt yet, though I'm somewhat suspicious of Mark at this point. I'll do a reread of the thread to see if anyone else stands out to me before placing that vote.

I personally believe Inquisitor has one of the uber-versions of emotional Allomancy, but probably not both. I don't think that uber-brass would allow them to change two separate votes, but maybe move one vote while also making it worth two. Considering that rioting nullifies the users own vote, though, your interpretation might be right, and that's not even factoring in the potential for several village Smokers.

I'm not a fan of option two, since I'm in support of a lynch. Given the fact that 96.7% of players right now are Villagers, however, I'm also of the opinion that if we lynch someone it should be a player who's not really contributing, an if possible, is the least likely to participate a lot in the future. Between 1 and 3, I'm not very picky. 3 has the potential to give us more information, but if we were to let that happen, I would prefer that no active players be at risk at all, and it's likely pointless anyway since the only person the Inquisitor should care about not getting lynched is him/herself. Considering the odds, there's a very good chance the Inquisitor hasn't even received a vote, yet, so he/she probably wouldn't get involved if it means denying us information.

Edited by Amanuensis
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Now, this came to my mind. If we, by some stroke of luck or by the divine intervention of the Ja lynch the Inquisitor this turn, he or she won't die. That is correct, because of the uberpewter? So seeing this, you might think, "then why try, if we can't kill him/her?" If we locate the Inquisitor, we can just batter him/her down turn after turn until all of his/her lives are gone. This forces the Inquisitor to find someone to spike that Night cycle, and would best do so in subsequent cycles.

That was probably useless, based on the extremely low probability of that happening.

And in other things, Mark was suspected, came in with a defense, Aman accepts the defense, but no one has removed their votes from Mark. Mark retaliate-voted Ecth, for lack of evidence. In other words, most of the discussion has begun to orbit Mark.

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I... don't have nearly enough time to respond to all of this. :P Good grief, this thread exploded with activity!  

A few quick notes;  I'm supportive of the D1 lynch, and I'm actually really surprised this is being brought up, especially by Wilson of all people.   It makes me think it's likely to have some merit to it, but it's also vaguely bringing up my suspicions.  Purely instinctual, but IDK.

I don't have any suspicions of my own as of right now, but I'll see what I can do by tonight.   I'm going to be away nearly all day again today, so we'll see.  

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Ising the voting of Drought. Hasing the spying while ising the feigning of sleeping. Ising the lurking, most likely. I ising the disliking of lurking and the promoting of the Contribution Crusade.

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5 hours ago, Amanuensis said:

 I understand where she's coming from, about not wanting to take the game too seriously, but I do wholeheartedly believe every player has a responsibility to put some effort into a game if they sign up for it. If they don't, what's the point in living while the players who want to participate die?

That's not really what I said, nor is it what I meant. I didn't mean to get that involved, as in making a post somewhat reminiscent of my old essay-posting self. If I'm signing up for a game, I'm playing. I just have no intention of devoting as much time to it as I used to, and I wanted to try even harder to maintain that this game, due to the original's significance to me.

Yes, every player has a responsibility to put effort into the game. I wholeheartedly agree with that. But when I'm asked (not by you, Aman. I think it was Mark, actually, but I can't remember for certain because I've really only been skimming the thread at best), because I advocated a non lynch on D1 when I've only done that once before (in LG 2, in fact), what in the world the village will talk about if not the lynch, as if the lynch is the only thing possible to discuss, yes, I'm going to get a little sarcastic because it's not my job to figure out every possible point of discussion.

2 hours ago, Magestar said:

I'm supportive of the D1 lynch, and I'm actually really surprised this is being brought up, especially by Wilson of all people.   It makes me think it's likely to have some merit to it, but it's also vaguely bringing up my suspicions.  Purely instinctual, but IDK.

Sigh. Yes, I did, and I still do, though I could also get behind a Crusade lynch, because I do see the point of starting with momentum. I also specified that it was for this specific game, with these specific mechanics, and I acknowledged before I even suggested it that I usually always support a D1 lynch. Why in hell would I change that up if I were the Inquisitor right now? Oh, but I'm Wilson and I'm so super manipulative and totally would've considered that angle and would be bringing it up now because I'm Wilson. You're being paranoid just because it's me, and your paranoia is entirely unfounded.

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9 hours ago, Silverblade5 said:

So, I've got a bit of a gut read on Aonar. I'm also slightly delirious. I will reread this monster of a thread tomorrow.

Could you maybe elaborate a bit more on this suspicion, as well as what about asking questions has made you suspicious of Arinian? As right now, you're just throwing around accusations without really explaining them, which is something I'm not overly fond of, as it influences the progress of the game without providing the village anything to work with to determine your alignment or the alignment of those you are accusing. SilverBlade5.

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12 minutes ago, randuir said:

Could you maybe elaborate a bit more on this suspicion, as well as what about asking questions has made you suspicious of Arinian? As right now, you're just throwing around accusations without really explaining them, which is something I'm not overly fond of, as it influences the progress of the game without providing the village anything to work with to determine your alignment or the alignment of those you are accusing. SilverBlade5.

I think you meant Aonar. They're two different people, Arinian and Aonar. 

@randuir

Praise the Ja!

Edited by Mark IV
Praise the Ja! The Ja shall prevail!
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Some more thoughts:

-If the Inquisitor does show as a regular villager, then at the very least waiting for the Seeker (if there is one) will indicate people who are good targets for lynching (as they might be the Inquisitor, and if not, they at least won't allow a conversion when killed).

-The point of thug roleclaims (assuming it's done by everybody) isn't really to draw out the inquisitor, but present him with a dilemma: If he does claim, and all the real thugs claim as well, there will be a higher-than-expected number of thugs, leading to suspicion on them.  If he does not claim, then if he gets hit and survives it'll be highly suspicious (if everybody claims as soon as they snap thug, he'd have to claim to have either snapped that night, or claim to be mistborn).  On the downside, it could end up revealing the mistborn, and of course lose most of the advantage of having a thug on our team, so it's not so clear it's a good idea.

-Another not-sure-if-it's-a-good-idea is for everybody to name someone else and guess their role, or attach messages to role guesses; this would allow seekers to communicate with people they've investigated in a way that the Inquisitor can't tell even if he has super-tin.

I would be interested in hearing thoughts about the latter two ideas.

Edited by Yitzi2
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One more question for the GM's: When a side wins, does everybody on that side win, or only those who have not yet been killed?

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1 hour ago, Mark IV said:

I think you meant Aonar. They're two different people, Arinian and Aonar. 

@randuir

Praise the Ja!

Silverblade cast suspicion at both arin and aonar. I asked about both suspicions.

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9 minutes ago, randuir said:

Silverblade cast suspicion at both arin and aonar. I asked about both suspicions.

Ah. Okay. I thought you were referring to just the post you quoted. My apologies.

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Hey, I just released that there are like 5 people RPing and the rest are arguing over rules

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Winkleton woke up from his dream of puppys and rainbows, and got up. praise the JA!

 

Edited by Ornstein
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4 minutes ago, Ornstein said:

Hey, I just released that there are like 5 people RPing and the rest are arguing over rules

Expect more RP from cycle 2 onwards, at least from those participating for RP. Right now, most people want to properly grasp the rules first.

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Makes sense. praise the Ja!

Edited by Ornstein
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1 hour ago, Mark IV said:

I think you meant Aonar. They're two different people, Arinian and Aonar. 

@randuir

Praise the Ja!

No, he is right he was talking about that Silver's post:

On 27.03.2017 at 7:40 AM, Silverblade5 said:

*Sees arinian asking about inquisitors*

*Is suspicious *

__________________________________________________________________________

9 hours ago, Mark IV said:

@Arinian

(I've edited in the numbering of the points against me)

I wholeheartedly agree with the point about D1 lynches (in bold), and in fact, I wanted to make this same point about 12 hours ago, but alas, I had to sleep. Aman puts it succinctly later on. 

  1. Well, yes, I did already know the answer. Sort of. Though I'm not going to quote them here, the rules from.... wait. I've already explained this. Let me copy and paste my answer.  I said:
    "In the rules (explicitly said in the LG2 rules, and implied in the LG32 rules), it says that the inquisitor dies if they give away all spikes. After going through the LG2 Master doc, I found there were only 5 powers (I may be mistaken on that. but, I think it was around 5. Someone please check when you can. I'm too lazy to do that. :P). So, essentially, each time the inquisitor gives away a spike, they lose a power. If they land up with no spikes, they die. Which means the maximum number of eliminators at any point in time should be 5, shouldn't it?"
     
  2. We aren't discussing what the elim will act like based on the player them self. What we were discussing was what would be wise for the elim to do. By no means do I say that the elim will act exactly as I've said, or exactly as anyone has said. 
    Another thing to note is that I wasn't the one who started the discussion on the topic of Elim activity. Aman asked a question to Ecth (one of the people who had not posted) to get them to participate in discussion. So, I'm not the one who started the discussion, and I don't think aman is suspicious for starting it either. 

     
  3. I agree that this is one of the drawbacks of the plan. 
     
  4. Or they might just claim because they're planning for the future. I mean, I can't predict whether they'll do it or not. I can only lay out the various things they could do. I am by no means saying that that is definitely what they'll do. 
     
  5. so, you're saying that if we do indeed have a chance to lynch the inquisitor, we wouldn't do so? That sounds quite eliminatory to me. However, I think I'm misreading your words. So, if you could phrase this again, I'll be glad to reply. (Note that Aman and lopen have already said they will be ready to lynch such a person a second time)
     
  6. About my advice being unhelpful, sure, I didn't mean for it to be accepted 100%. However, when I had posted my plan, there were no other plans on the table. So, rather than just sitting around and waiting for one to come up, I posted my own plan. (You can thank Joe and Aman for motivating me to do so (they didn't motivate me directly, but rather through general advice))

1. I've seen that but as Aman already pointed number of abilities(conversions) can be based on how much roles village have or on the exact powers that Inquisitor got in this game, we can't be sure that in this game powers for inquisitor same as in LG2. But I think it's bad idea for me to blame someone for guessing number of conversions :D (next time just add that you not certain :D).

2. I will make example.

If Aman inquisitor he surely not gonna act as you think is wise for elim he will act as usual Aman. So will be with every player, each person's playstyle will affect what he will do as elim.

And truly I brought that point not as accusation on you I just thought that focusing to much discussion on this is not very useful ;)

3. *Shrug*

4. I'm don't see what good claim can do for Inquisitor. Only way it's good for him if there many thugs as it was in AG3. But I doubt that he have information about everyones roles... I'm bad in giving understandable answers... I will give you example.

Let's guess that there 1 seeker and 2 village thugs in this game. And inquisitor claims that he is thug, seeker surely will scan all this 3 thugs and even if seeker will be unlucky on turn 3 we will know who is inquisitor. Only way when claim can be good for inquistor it's when he sure that there no seekers or he will convert someone in smoker(or he will convert Seeker in Seeker :huh:) and will try to put suspicion on village thugs smoking them(Strategy with smoking thugs he can do even without revealing himself as thug. So I see inquisitor will claim thug only if he have some uber ability that gives him knowledge of everyones roles). It's just my opinion and maybe I miss some incredible tricks that he can pull.

5. What? I meant that chance to lynch inquisitor immediately after thug claim it's so low that harm from thug claim is much higher then this miraculous chance to lynch inquisitor.

6.*Shrug*

I will retract my vote for now from you Mark. But not cause I'm not suspicious of you(I'm still suspecting you). I'm retrcating my vote only cause I played only one game with you(LG28) and you was not very active so I can't judge about your usual playstyle.

I will vote for Drought. Every game which I played with him he lurked. I don't like lurkers. And he lurks again.

Edited by Arinian
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14 hours ago, OmeGaster said:

Rieyun was attempting, and failing to completely process what had just happened. The strange man was obviously delirious after Ry hit him in the head, walking to the other side of the room and collapsing. Ry hoped he hadn't hit him in the head too hard.

Ry turned to the man who had just recently shaken his hand. "I do not think we should speak of this moment ever again," Ry said, "I hope you can forgive me for the injury I imposed upon you, that man thankfully slapped some sense into me. I'm Rieyun, but please, call me Ry."

Winkleton looked over at the man he had slapped. Maby,just maby, that wasn't such a good Idea. He decided to go back an talk to the man. praise the Ja!

Edited by Ornstein
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2 hours ago, little wilson said:
 
 
 
 

That's not really what I said, nor is it what I meant. I didn't mean to get that involved, as in making a post somewhat reminiscent of my old essay-posting self. If I'm signing up for a game, I'm playing. I just have no intention of devoting as much time to it as I used to, and I wanted to try even harder to maintain that this game, due to the original's significance to me.

Yes, every player has a responsibility to put effort into the game. I wholeheartedly agree with that. But when I'm asked (not by you, Aman. I think it was Mark, actually, but I can't remember for certain because I've really only been skimming the thread at best), because I advocated a non lynch on D1 when I've only done that once before (in LG 2, in fact), what in the world the village will talk about if not the lynch, as if the lynch is the only thing possible to discuss, yes, I'm going to get a little sarcastic because it's not my job to figure out every possible point of discussion.

Ah, yeah. Sorry. I didn't mean to necessarily direct that at you, it was just the train of thought I was having that brought me there. For the record, the primary reason I voted on you when I did is because we are two players that are associated with scary reputation, so I figured that it would spark more discussion.

2 hours ago, Yitzi2 said:
 
 
 

Some more thoughts:

-If the Inquisitor does show as a regular villager, then at the very least waiting for the Seeker (if there is one) will indicate people who are good targets for lynching (as they might be the Inquisitor, and if not, they at least won't allow a conversion when killed).

-The point of thug roleclaims (assuming it's done by everybody) isn't really to draw out the inquisitor, but present him with a dilemma: If he does claim, and all the real thugs claim as well, there will be a higher-than-expected number of thugs, leading to suspicion on them.  If he does not claim, then if he gets hit and survives it'll be highly suspicious (if everybody claims as soon as they snap thug, he'd have to claim to have either snapped that night, or claim to be mistborn).  On the downside, it could end up revealing the mistborn, and of course lose most of the advantage of having a thug on our team, so it's not so clear it's a good idea.

-Another not-sure-if-it's-a-good-idea is for everybody to name someone else and guess their role, or attach messages to role guesses; this would allow seekers to communicate with people they've investigated in a way that the Inquisitor can't tell even if he has super-tin.

I would be interested in hearing thoughts about the latter two ideas.

 

-If the Seeker scans a player and they show up as a Regular Villager, I would advise they not reveal themselves to them just in case. If said Seeker has other scanned villagers with roles to talk to, it would be better that they discuss the "Regular" first. That being said, I'm not a fan of situations where people are specifically hunted down because they are a certain role. I've been a victim of that just because other villagers believed the eliminators had to have a certain role, and they were wrong. Not fun when you get killed while innocent and having no suspicious evidence against you.

-There's been games in the past with an insane number of a particular role. The game I meant just above, I believe LG14, there were a lot of "lurcher" type roles, and none were evil. In the most recent AG3 there were a ton of Thugs, and in in the AG before that, there were a ton of Smokers. So, without more clues on this game's distribution, I hesitate to make any plans regarding higher-than-expected numbers. Plus, as I've said before, it's a really bad idea for any Thugs to reveal, let alone any role, regardless of if they're a Misting or not. I would rather we all wait until the Inquisitor uses all of his conversions before we risk opening that flood gate. Also, @OrlokTsubodai, this games rules don't mention Mistborn, but LG2 did and had one. Does that mean you removed Mistborn from this game?

-I'm not sure if I understand what you're suggesting here, exactly, but like I said, I'd rather the Inquisitor be clueless about who has what roles, and since we don't know who the Inquisitor is or who he/she will decide to convert, it's better that players keep that information to themselves, or else we put ourselves at risk of the Spiked removing our stronger powers from the game before we can take advantage of them, or worse, stealing those same powers to use against us.

1 hour ago, Yitzi2 said:

One more question for the GM's: When a side wins, does everybody on that side win, or only those who have not yet been killed?

Everyone who was on that side wins, regardless of if they died. This is a team game, and even dying helps those who live by giving them more information to help figure out the game's role and alignment distribution.

Also, I know Randuir has said this to you before, but be careful with double posting. It's not exactly against the rules, but it's frowned upon by the 17th Shard Moderators. All you need to do is edit your last post, preferablly with the word EDIT capitalized and in bold before it, as other players will likely see it even if someone else posts after.

1 hour ago, Ornstein said:
 

Hey, I just released that there are like 5 people RPing and the rest are arguing over rules

Yeah, that's partly my fault, and I'm sorry. I'll try to contribute to the RP soon, as I really like the ideas I have for Mykal and Elosa. But I should warn you that these games are not like most roleplay games. There is strategy to it, and I think a majority of people usually play for the tactical aspect over the narrative.

Edited by Amanuensis
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@Mark IV is in trouble! to save a fellow jaist I shall vote for sart! praise the Ja!

Edited by Ornstein
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25 minutes ago, Ornstein said:

@Mark IV is in trouble! to save a fellow jaist I shall vote for sart! praise the Ja!

In order to officially vote for Sart, you need to color his name in red. If you're mobile and don't have the drop down menu you can do this by typing:

[color=red]Sart[/color]

Assuming that you color his name, or that the GMs count your vote anyway, I've put the vote tally down below. Which with Arinian's vote change means that you're not actually saving Mark, just making sure that Sart dies rather than let the lynch be nullified by a tie.

EDITED to remove Ornstein's "vote" since he "retracted" it in the next post

Day One Vote Tally

(0) OmeGasterArraenae

(0) ArraenaeAmanuensis

(2) SartSartAmanuensisOrnstein

(0) ElenionJondesu

(0) little wilsonAmanuensis, Mark IV

(1) Drake MarshallTheMightyLopen

(2) Mark IVArinianJondesuEcthelion III

(1) Aonar FaileasSilverblade5

(1) Ecthelion IIIMark IV

(2) DroughtBringerElenionArinian

(1) Silverblade5randuir

 

Edited by Amanuensis
Removed Ornstein's "vote" since he "retracted" it in the next post
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5 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

In order to officially vote for Sart, you need to color his name in red. If you're mobile and don't have the drop down menu you can do this by typing:

[color=red]Sart[/color]

Assuming that you color his name, or that the GMs count your vote anyway, I've put the vote tally down below. Which with Arinian's vote change means that you're not actually saving Mark, just making sure that Sart dies rather than let the lynch be nullified by a tie.

Day One Vote Tally

(0) OmeGasterArraenae

(0) ArraenaeAmanuensis

(3) SartSartAmanuensisOrnstein

(0) ElenionJondesu

(0) little wilsonAmanuensis, Mark IV

(1) Drake MarshallTheMightyLopen

(2) Mark IVArinianJondesuEcthelion III

(1) Aonar FaileasSilverblade5

(1) Ecthelion IIIMark IV

(2) DroughtBringerElenionArinian

(1) Silverblade5randuir

because someone retracted there vote, i shall to.I dont want any lynching on day one, so ya... Praise the ja!!!

Edited by Ornstein
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1 minute ago, Ornstein said:

because someone retracted there vote, i shall to.

Is that the only reason you originally made the vote?

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Wait, Sart voted for himself?

44 minutes ago, Kipper said:

Is that the only reason you originally made the vote?

Yes.

Well, kind of. I made the vote to save a fellow JAist, Praise the Ja!

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55 minutes ago, Ornstein said:

Hey, I just released that there are like 5 people RPing and the rest are arguing over rules

Hey, there's a lot more rules and strategy to be discussed at this moment than RPing; if anyone goes up to Garshin and starts a discussion, I'm happy to respond.

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So...

I'm not going to pretend I'm caught up on all this big thread, but I have read the last page.

Speaking of which:

1 hour ago, Yitzi2 said:

One more question for the GM's: When a side wins, does everybody on that side win, or only those who have not yet been killed?

The GMs can correct me on this, but I'm guessing it is very probable that people who die but are on the winning team still win. Otherwise you get people trying to preserve themselves over their faction.

 

But anyway. In my past few games, it seems to me that one of the best indicators of being an eliminator is a change in playstyle.

Unsurprisingly, most people are sticking to their normal play. We only have 1 elim for now, after all. Among the people who seem to be playing very much in line with their typical style are Arin, Ecth, maybe Jon.

I don't really know Mark at all, but so far he seems not suspicious.

 

Personally though, I'd advocate a day 1 lynch, even if our probability of hitting an elim is small. You see, our expected value of hitting elim is just as good as it would be if we waited. As compared to when the elim has spiked 4 people, we have a 5x smaller chance of hitting a 5x more valuable target. The expected value does not change.

 

As for who to lynch... I'd like to say I have a suspicion but I need to read more before I do. Expect a vote coming sometime. And RP if I got time, but probably that'll show up in C2.

 

Wasing the not of speaking high imperial this post. Ising the finish with high imperial to keep up the cosmetic role.

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