Jump to content

Long Game (3)2: Pulling on Strings


Recommended Posts

1 hour ago, Mark IV said:

My first thought was (note that this is Paranoid!Mark speaking, and things might be blown out of proportion) "she's copying exactly what Aman said. "

But honestly, what Aman said is a reasonable explanation, and I'm willing to believe it. It's not Wilson's fault that Aman said it first, either ways. 

I've said similar things as well, even before Aman said it. I just don't care enough to go find them. There's nothing inherently wrong about acknowledging an IKYK, and it's well-known (to players who've played 3+ games with me) that I dislike them and mostly tend to ignore them, beyond an initial acknowledgement.

Also, because I missed this the first time around: Just because the Inquisitor is more likely to adopt a passive playstyle at the beginning doesn't mean they will be silent. Cessie, the Inquisitor in LG2, wasn't silent. She posted. She just adopted a very neutral stance, since she was brand new to the games (but most of us were at that point). I fully expect the Inquisitor to be posting, and possibly even taking an aggressive stance, depending on who it is. For example, were Meta the Inquisitor, I certainly wouldn't expect him to be passive. Same with Aman. There are certain players who won't adopt a passive playstyle because it's so against how they generally play that they cannot. But most others are easily able to be passive. It's more likely that the Inquisitor will have a passive playstyle at the beginning, but it's not certain, and it's certainly not a must for them to be silent. And if they speak at all, they risk attracting suspicion and the lynch. Passive players have done so in the past so it's not hard to imagine it could happen again.

As for discussion if we decide not to lynch: there's plenty to discuss and to try to minimize that is ridiculous. We can discuss role and actions. We can discuss potential Uber-metals. We can discuss roleclaims. We can discuss things players have said thus far. Or, better yet, we can try to engage those who haven't posted yet and draw them into the game. There are many things we can discuss, and it's not my job to figure that out for you. But here's a question for everyone who thinks we should lynch D1: With only 1 eliminator in the game right now, what information do you expect to gain in the lynch discussion? In a normal elimination game, where there are multiple starting eliminators, you can potentially start tying players to one another based on how they defend each other, assuming you're paying attention and taking notes and willing to look back on those notes and tie things together (most people say there's information in a D1 lynch, but they rarely, if ever, go back and find it to use it). Day 1 lynches in standard games are good, particularly for the players who analyze and take notes. But that's not something that's going to happen on this Day 1 because even if the Inquisitor defends anyone, it's not a legitimate tie because that person isn't a teammate. The Inquisitor has no teammates right now, and they're unlikely to give away their alignment if they are talking a lot and taking stances. Therefore, we net practically zero in terms of useful information, and we kill one of our own. Nice job? Oh, but if we don't lynch, we'll start D2 in the same place, but with one player dead. Yes. And guess what happens if we do lynch? We'll still start D2 with practically no info, but this time, we'll either be two villagers down, or one villager and a convert. That's even worse.

Please explain to me why a D1 lynch in this game is absolutely critical.

Lastly, Yitzi's idea has merit for this cycle, though I think it's more about the Seeker building a circle of people they can trust for now. However, this is running on the assumption that we even have a Seeker, which we might not. I will assume we do until I see proof to the contrary. The Inquisitor is highly unlikely to show up as "Inquisitor" on a scan. With how outnumbered he is, proper balance dictates that he has something to keep him relatively safe until mid-game, assuming nothing goes drastically wrong (like a lynch survival and scan as a regular villager). His Uber-Copper (I definitely think he has Uber-Copper, or something similar) likely makes him scan as a villager. Whether that's a regular villager or a Misting or even a Mistborn remains to be seen. I strongly suspect it's regular villager. And to address Rand's counterpoint, that's not really an issue right now. Assuming the Inquisitor has the ability to include another person in his uber-coppercloud (I doubt it), that would probably be an active inclusion rather than passive, which means that if he decided to do that, he'd be sacrificing his kill or his conversion, since he can only do one action per cycle. Until a Smoker dies and the Inquisitor converts someone afterwards, we can safely assume that the Inquisitor isn't interfering with scans, unless he himself is scanned. It would probably be wise of the Seeker to be wary of regular villager scans and not blindly trust those you've scanned because the Inquisitor could convert someone in your circle.

...I wasn't supposed to get this involved. I'm actually a little irritated at myself now. :/

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Manukos said:

P.S. Contricution crusade, it is a 2 day round no reason to get riled up allready

Mostly it's about contacting people early enough in the cycle so that they have time to respond. Contacting inactives 3 hours before the cycle ends doesn't help much. 

Re: day 1 lynches:

i don't have a lot of time to post right now, but for what it's worth I agree with Wilson. While it may be true that there is some information to be gained from a day 1 lynch, in this particular game it would help the inquisitor more than it would help the village. 

And by waiting until day 2 (or later) to lynch, we DO gain information. We find out who the inquisitor attacks and can start to make some guesses as to why the inquisitor might target that person and narrow down who the inquisitor might be. 

 

Also, a couple other pieces of general advice:

As has been said, it's generally a really bad idea to reveal your role. Even if the inquisitor DOESN'T have uber-Tin (the ability to read other players' PMs), anyone you talk to might be Spiked later. 

To any Tineyes out there: you actually have a powerful ability with your anonymous night messages. I demonstrated this when I was the Tineye in LG2. Go read the last few pages of LG and find where I explained all my Tin-messages to see what I mean. You can hide clues to your identity in your Tin-messages and use them to prove to people that you haven't been Spiked (when a player gets Spiked they lose any powers they previously had). Make good use of that. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

21 minutes ago, little wilson said:

And to address Rand's counterpoint, that's not really an issue right now. Assuming the Inquisitor has the ability to include another person in his uber-coppercloud (I doubt it), that would probably be an active inclusion rather than passive, which means that if he decided to do that, he'd be sacrificing his kill or his conversion, since he can only do one action per cycle. Until a Smoker dies and the Inquisitor converts someone afterwards, we can safely assume that the Inquisitor isn't interfering with scans, unless he himself is scanned. It would probably be wise of the Seeker to be wary of regular villager scans and not blindly trust those you've scanned because the Inquisitor could convert someone in your circle.

Maybe I've made some wrong assumptions here, so let's try and clear them up. @OrlokTsubodai, does the inquisitor get only one action? Apologies if this has been listed somewhere in the rules for this game already.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, randuir said:

The smoker power nearly always protects someone from being scanned by seekers. If we put it to a vote, if the inquisitor or one of their later recruits is a smoker, than they can simply counter that. It's a good idea, but it likely won't work because of that role.

Day 1, there are no recruits...so if the smokers turn their powers off (which they can do, according to the rules), then anyone left smoking will be highly suspicious.  (I'm assuming here that the Inquisitor doesn't have the ability to appear to be another role, as that would probably be overpowered and leave us with no recourse other than random guessing.)

 

Another question: What are the conditions for nobody being lynched?  Does it require a plurality explicitly voting for it, or what?

Edited by Yitzi2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

11 minutes ago, Yitzi2 said:

Day 1, there are no recruits...so if the smokers turn their powers off (which they can do, according to the rules), then anyone left smoking will be highly suspicious.  (I'm assuming here that the Inquisitor doesn't have the ability to appear to be another role, as that would probably be overpowered and leave us with no recourse other than random guessing.)

 

Another question: What are the conditions for nobody being lynched?  Does it require a plurality explicitly voting for it, or what?

I wasn't completely clear here. Smokers don't just protect themselves but also a +1. If the inquisitor only gets 1 action then we should indeed be fine for cycle 1.

No lynch occurs when no votes are cast. Additionally, depending on the rules, it can occur when no one reaches a 2 or 3 vote treshhold, or when a draw occurs. @OrlokTsubodai, is there a vote treshhold and what happens on a draw ( this isn't mentioned in tge lg2 rules either, and I can't search for clarifications elsewhere while on mobile).

Edit: dual posting (posting twice shortly after eachother with no one else posting in between) is somewhat frowned upon. It's better to just edit it into your previous post.

Edited by randuir
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, Yitzi2 said:

 

True, though given that the inquisitor can't protect everybody from seeking, it'd still be quite suspicious.

Agreed, but if we clearly pre-select someone through a vote, it makes sense for an elim with that ability to smoke them, no matter the alignment of the person being smoked, to deny us information.

If someone is found to be smoked when no public selection if the seeker target is done, then it could be considered suspicious, of course.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Wol rubbed his head. This reminds me of the time my great-uncle Percy cooked dinner for the family. Everybody had a headache for a solid week afterwards.

Well, I'm here, and I'm following people's posts. I tentatively agree with not lynching anybody today, although I'm a bit worried that we will be in a somewhat similar situation the next day. So regardless of the results of this lynch and the night, I think we need to kill somebody the next day. And PM safety. Don't forget that.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

19 minutes ago, randuir said:

Agreed, but if we clearly pre-select someone through a vote, it makes sense for an elim with that ability to smoke them, no matter the alignment of the person being smoked, to deny us information.

If someone is found to be smoked when no public selection if the seeker target is done, then it could be considered suspicious, of course.

Ah, right.  Forgot about that.  Although if there are multiple seekers, some might still succeed.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I GO TO SLEEP AND NOW I HAVE 12 NOTIFICATIONS AND A POKE-VOTE.

Okay, now that I got that out of the way:

@Arraenae, I personally think that a poke-vote is a good way to start a conversation, but I do agree with the notion that it was a bit early for that. I also find it a bit strange that you said you picked my vote randomly, and yet I happened to be one of two characters that greeted Rhea pre-game. (Suspicious Face, Suspicious Face)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I wanted to make a post, but seeing as it's night time right now, I must go to sleep. I'll make a post when I wake up. Hopefully. 

Also, I'm officially withdrawing from one of my cosmetic roles: the confused feruchemist one. I can't remember the name of it. But, you get my gist. 

And, now, as the Ja wills it, I shall sleep, and wake the next morning, to spread more of his beliefs! 

A good Day/Morning/Afternoon/Evening/Night to you all!

Praise The Ja!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Ry woke up with the most brutal ache in his head.

Rusting Ja, what happened? He asked himself, The last thing I can remember doing is escorting that woman, Rhea, to Tekiel.

Before he could dwell on this matter further, he noticed that a note was in his pocket similar to the one he received that morning, or what he thought was that morning

Dear Rieyun, the note read,

You may have disliked the kidnapping that you have no doubt experienced, but we expect you to easily overcome such an issue. We hope you enjoy the experience that is being provided to you by the Lord Tekiel, and his infinite amount of boxings. They’re obviously not actually infinite, but they might as well be at this point, considering the place you’re in.

Now, some of you might be waiting for me to describe the kind of area you’re in, although I have no idea why I would do such a thing. You have eyes of your own, why don’t you use them? I shouldn’t have to spoonfeed you on all the details of whatever might be happening, otherwise you’ve already failed the test. 

You might also be expecting Lord Tekiel to speak to you, but why would he speak to some lowlife outsiders? That was a bit rude, sorry. Sometimes I forget that you outsiders think you’re better than anyone in Fadrex, as if that was even possible. Anyway, I have a few things that I must do now, like setting up one of you to die at some point tonight. 

Have Fun!

Sincerely,
The Court Fool

(PS, if you think this letter is too short, then I’ll have you know that your Outsider opinion doesn’t matter anyway) 

Ry looked around the room where some people seemed to be either sulking, talking, or unconscious.The conversation appeared to be extremely boring, so he decided to go and converse with man in the corner, who appeared to be talking to himself. As he got nearer he was shocked to see that it was the rude man from earlier.

Ry promptly slapped him. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1) I don't agree with Wilson. If we won't have lynch on D1 it's truly changes nothing... with that logic we just can sit and do nothing till inquisitor will hit misting on his own. Or I misunderstand something? Chances to hit misting with lynch not gonna go lower on D2 lynch nor on D3 lynch... so why no lynch on this cycle? And without lynches discussion not gonna go on higher level then it right now. No lynch just slows this game.

2)Some people pointed on Rae as suspicious so I think she is villager, surely :P (I'm just want to say that she acts like village!Rae)

3)Wilson. For me looks like even she don't believe in what she says about no lynch on D1. But that just what my gut says to me.

4)Mark.

9 hours ago, Mark IV said:

In my Opinion, (And I agree with wilson somewhat here) the Inquisitor would be more quiet earlier on. I'm assuming the inquisitor would most likely be someone who the GM knew would not go inactive, because having the only eliminator in the game also be inactive would not be the best. And, I also agree with the fact that they would likely become more vocal later on, as they accumulate more and more converts (the max would be 5 elims, isn't it?).

I don't know why but  part about "the max would be 5 elims, isn't it?" made me suspicious . Sounds like you already knew answer...

Quote

There Mark writes "blah blah blah elims would be speak much or not?" :P

I don't know why we even should talk about that, cause each person will act not like other and all this discussion about how active elims would be gives us nothing.

Quote

That brings me to the last part of my post- what does everyone think of thugs roleclaiming? Now, hear me out first-

1) If thugs do roleclaim, the inquisitor has to spend two kils on them. It would be far better for them to attack others first.

2) The inquisitor has to decide whether to claim with the thugs. If they do, then sure, they have an alibi for surviving the lynch. However, scanners can then check the roles of the claimed thugs to see who's lying. @OrlokTsubodai Am I right in assuming that scanners will not see the inquisitor's rle as 'Thug'?

3) If the inquisitor doesn't claim, then they have no alibi for surviving the lynch, thus, they'd be caught red-handed.

1)That kills all meaning of thug role. Elims will just ignore all thugs. As people already said it gives even more information for inquisitor so he can choose more wisely whom to kill or convert, so this claim only hurts village.

2)Only reason for inquisitor to claim is if he will be under hard suspicion and will have high chance to be lynched.

3)And you so sure that after this claim we immediately will lynch inquisitor? Pff... I doubt in it.

I will put my vote on Mark for now. His advice absolutely unhelpful, I see some logic in Wilson's advice but thing that Mark said it's absolutely not wise to do.

That's all for now, maybe will add something later.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Yitzi2 said:

(I'm assuming here that the Inquisitor doesn't have the ability to appear to be another role, as that would probably be overpowered and leave us with no recourse other than random guessing.)

That's not a safe assumption, just so you know. The Inquisitor in the first run of this game had Uber-Copper, which allowed them to scan as a Regular Villager. I strongly suspect there is something similar in this game, to protect the Inquisitor against a scan. They will have to give up that ability at some point though, since they have to give up a power (their choice) whenever they convert.

In LG2, Cessie held onto Uber-Copper until after we'd pulled a Wounded Gazelle on her and she claimed Thug. At that point, showing up as a Regular Villager when she's claiming Thug and clearly has Thug-like powers was more harm than good and would've revealed her anyway, so the next conversion she made, she got rid of Uber-Copper. She held onto Uber-Pewter until her second-to-last life was gone, since that was useless at that point as well. I figure the Inquisitor this time around will do something similar: once a power is either useless or does more harm than good to keep, they'll get rid of it.

1 minute ago, Arinian said:

3)Wilson. For me looks like even she don't believe in what she says about no lynch on D1. But that just what my gut says to me.

Ha. Seriously? Have you seen me cast a vote or advocate for a lynch? Oh, but obviously, I don't believe what I'm saying about not lynching, but because I can't let people know that, I've been talking about that, and also been discussing things that don't have to do with the lynch or suspicions. But that's clearly just a cover for my lack of belief. Brilliant. You caught me, Arin. Amazing.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

15 minutes ago, Arinian said:

1) I don't agree with Wilson. If we won't have lynch on D1 it's truly changes nothing... with that logic we just can sit and do nothing till inquisitor will hit misting on his own.  That depends whether the seekers can help the village.  The idea of not lynching early is to give the seekers time to work.

 

11 minutes ago, little wilson said:

That's not a safe assumption, just so you know. The Inquisitor in the first run of this game had Uber-Copper, which allowed them to scan as a Regular Villager. I strongly suspect there is something similar in this game, to protect the Inquisitor against a scan. They will have to give up that ability at some point though, since they have to give up a power (their choice) whenever they convert.

In LG2, Cessie held onto Uber-Copper until after we'd pulled a Wounded Gazelle on her and she claimed Thug. At that point, showing up as a Regular Villager when she's claiming Thug and clearly has Thug-like powers was more harm than good and would've revealed her anyway, so the next conversion she made, she got rid of Uber-Copper. She held onto Uber-Pewter until her second-to-last life was gone, since that was useless at that point as well. I figure the Inquisitor this time around will do something similar: once a power is either useless or does more harm than good to keep, they'll get rid of it.

Interesting.  So if you hadn't done the WGG, was there any way for the villagers to determine her ID?

Edited by Yitzi2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

16 minutes ago, little wilson said:

Ha. Seriously? Have you seen me cast a vote or advocate for a lynch? Oh, but obviously, I don't believe what I'm saying about not lynching, but because I can't let people know that, I've been talking about that, and also been discussing things that don't have to do with the lynch or suspicions. But that's clearly just a cover for my lack of belief. Brilliant. You caught me, Arin. Amazing.

Ahh... I wrote you answer but something gone wrong and it's disappeared. Sooo...

Yeah, I know that I Brilliant! You really shoudn't repeat it. :P

Also as I said it's just gut read on your posts not something driven by logic.  For me your posts looked like you just was caught on failure logic but still pushing for it just not to be blamed in changing mind...

Edited by Arinian
Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, Yitzi2 said:

Interesting.  So if you hadn't done the WGG, was there any way for the villagers to determine her ID?

Not really. I mean, she'd claimed to have snapped into a Thug, but she claimed that the night I was attacking her. So if we hadn't planned for that, she would've stayed claiming Regular. So in that case, no, there wouldn't have been any scan way to determine her ID. But not only would she have had to get rid of it anyway at some point, because Uber-Tin was far more valuable than Uber-Copper, I don't go with Follow the cop strategies, and I don't think you need to count on scans and Seekers to catch the bad guys. Analysis and/or gut reads can work just as well. So even if there wasn't a way to determine her ID via scans, she still probably would've been caught eventually. It just would've taken longer, in that specific game, because of those specific circumstances. But yeah. Seekers aren't a guaranteed thing. The distribution might not have one, so it's best to not rely on them 100%. Even if we do have one, it's still best to not rely on them 100%, since then you're fumbling in the dark when/if they die.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Wow. Within eight hours or so, we've already gotten to four pages. So the main suspicions, it seems, are Wilson(though that seems to have defused some) and Mark. I distrust Wilson from experience, which comprises AG3, in which Wilson was an Elim and I had no idea. So don't consider that of any worth. There are many new individuals in this game, so I have no idea how they play, etc. we still have at least 24 hours left, so how about we get to eight pages? And I'll vote sometime between then.


Quinn turned to the sound of footsteps approaching. It was a man, who was staring at him with as much intensity as a fire.

Oh no...

Quinn opened his mouth to greet the man, but he was cut off with a stunning slap across his face. His mouth hung open, dazed.

Ooh, that must have hurt.

What was that for? 'Oh, it's a rather innocent looking accountant, I'll go slap him!' Rusts, man!

He must have had a reason.

Quinn rubbed his cheek, which was a violent red. He looked up at the man, who looked down at him, arms folded. 

Show him! Fight! Fight! Fight! Fight!

Shush! That's the worst possible response!

Quinn stood, still rubbing his cheek, and faced the man. At full height, Quinn was just barely an inch taller than the man. He reached towards him.

"I'll take that as a greeting," he said as he shook the man's hand.

Way to be boring, Quinn.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, little wilson said:

Not really. I mean, she'd claimed to have snapped into a Thug, but she claimed that the night I was attacking her. So if we hadn't planned for that, she would've stayed claiming Regular. So in that case, no, there wouldn't have been any scan way to determine her ID. But not only would she have had to get rid of it anyway at some point, because Uber-Tin was far more valuable than Uber-Copper, I don't go with Follow the cop strategies, and I don't think you need to count on scans and Seekers to catch the bad guys. Analysis and/or gut reads can work just as well. So even if there wasn't a way to determine her ID via scans, she still probably would've been caught eventually. It just would've taken longer, in that specific game, because of those specific circumstances. But yeah. Seekers aren't a guaranteed thing. The distribution might not have one, so it's best to not rely on them 100%. Even if we do have one, it's still best to not rely on them 100%, since then you're fumbling in the dark when/if they die.

The idea would be that even if they die, they'll first build a network of people who can trust each other not to be the inquisitor...but if there can also be super-copper, that makes it less valuable.

I'm still not quite sure how analysis and gut reads can work against an inquisitor who knows what they're doing, though.  If they just do whatever they would do as a villager, that would keep them from being detected...and once Mistings start getting lynched, they can build up a team.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

22 minutes ago, Yitzi2 said:

I'm still not quite sure how analysis and gut reads can work against an inquisitor who knows what they're doing, though.  If they just do whatever they would do as a villager, that would keep them from being detected...and once Mistings start getting lynched, they can build up a team.

If they play perfectly, you're right. However, veryone slips up at one point or another, especially once an elim team has been formed.

Also don't underestimate the power of some people's guts. Lopen managed to get a correct gut read on almost the entire elim team in around cycle 3 in LG30. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...