Long Game (3)2: Pulling on Strings

[little wilson]

21 minutes ago, randuir said:

Also, hey, I get to be a soother. @Arraenae should be able to confirm I'd send her that message about 7 hours before that post (my PM was 10:45 AM saturday for me, your post was 5:26 PM saturday).

Well, if my goal had been to avoid being soothed by you, I could have just abstained from voting, which is a far more certain method to not get soothed. Any questioning about that would have been far easier to get rid of than questions about why I'd been Smoked.

Well, fortunately, the timing of that post versus the PM doesn't really matter. The point is that I never said I was cleared (before or after).

Anyway. I disagree. See, with how we've been using emotional allomancy to check for copperclouds and encouraging as many people as possible to vote, an active player abstaining from voting right after a Spiked was caught because their vote wasn't soothed would draw a lot of attention. You've voted in most of the day cycles, if not all of them, so you abstaining from voting when you were certainly active and posting would be suspicious. Plus, Lopen had mentioned you among all the non-voters, requesting for all of you to vote. And you'd been online and posting after having been mentioned. No, I don't think you had a choice. You had to vote. It's either abstain and certainly draw attention to yourself or vote and possibly get caught. And really, with a wide pool of voters, the odds of you getting caught are pretty slim. Particularly if you vote alongside the public Soother. That's arguably the spot where you're least likely to be targeted.

[DeTess]

1 hour ago, little wilson said:

 And you'd been online and posting after having been mentioned. No, I don't think you had a choice. You had to vote. It's either abstain and certainly draw attention to yourself or vote and possibly get caught. And really, with a wide pool of voters, the odds of you getting caught are pretty slim. Particularly if you vote alongside the public Soother. That's arguably the spot where you're least likely to be targeted.

I don't disagree with you saying that had I been trying to avoid getting scanned, and felt that I'd have to vote, voting ecth would have been the best place to vote. However, i disagree with your opinion that I didn't have a choice. As I indicated halfway through the cycle, I'd be busy yesterday, and might not be able to post much. I could have sued that as an argument, or I could have done a last-minute psot through my phone in which I can't add color, and see how the GM's would rule it (I'm just pointing that out as a  hypothetical. Trying to use that issue is borderline cheating IMHO, so I won't ever do that, but it could have been a possibility).

Anyway, I've been going back through my posts, and checking if there's anything I could use to prove my innocence. I'd like to point out that I did provide some reasons for why I eventually voted for ecth (in an earlier post than the one I voted in), but that doesn't prove much, as there was apparently enough reason for you to vote ecth as well, so fabricating some if I was an Elim wouldn't be hard.

However, I also asked to be soothed two cycles back. As far as I'm aware, no one soothed me then. If I was an elim, why would I arrange to get smoked(or smoke myself) so soon after I'd made that request if I'd had no problem with being vulnerable before that? I reckon it was that request that got an offensive smokescreen used against me though.

RP:

The Magister stalked through the halls. Apparently some of the soothers had been using their powers to try and find someone immune to it. They had reasoned that the inquisitor hiding among them would have some sort of protections, and so would his underlings. Now he’d heard rumours  that one of them had used her powers on him. Soothing had no discernible effect on a Kandra, of course. He hadn’t even noticed the attempt, which didn’t say much about the Soother’s strength.

Of course, it wasn’t the soother he was worrying about. If they hung him, it might snap the neck of his current body, rendering it almost unusable. Even if it didn’t, he’d have to play dead until all of this had all blown over.  This was the core of his current predicament. The sarcophagi in the crypt where solid stone, and he might have trouble getting out if his body got damaged too badly. Worse still, if this court fool decided to dispose of the bodies by burning them, he could actually be in danger.

His wandering had let him towards the crypt. After a moment’s hesitation he entered. No one was inside. A row of nine coffins had already been closed, bodies decomposing inside. A morbid curiosity drew the Magister to the tenth coffin, the one he might soon be occupying. Like the others, it was smooth, solid stone. Closer inspection showed that it was not particularly high quality stone though, with cracks and crumbled parts showing in some locations. Slowly, a plan started to come together in the Magister’s mind. It would take some very quick preparation, and a bit of luck, but he believed he would be able to ensure his survival if the worst happened. He’d be done with this ‘test’, of course, but that didn’t bother him in the slightest.

Edited April 13, 2017 by randuir

[Kipper]

6 hours ago, Aonar Faileas said:

Hey Kip, is there a reason you cared so much about your survival? From what I can tell, you haven't exactly been contributing to the village much, so prioritizing your survival over the information we could gain from your lynch when you're not doing much doesn't really make much sense. (Referring to your vote switch on to Ecth, which would have forced a tie prior to Rand's vote.)

Would have commented on this earlier, but I didn't even see it until a few hours after the rollover, and yesterday was a busy night.

Yes. I want to remain alive. That's my reason. But I think you'd be hard-pressed to say that Ecthelion's death wasn't something that a lot of people wanted, or thought that they would gain value from.

[Orlok Tsubodai]

This turn is now over.

[Orlok Tsubodai]

LG32: Day Seven - Not The End

Dear __________

You may have heard of the commotion that happened last night, which was certainly a pain for even me to observe. But you see, I don’t even have to explain it to you or anything, but can instead show you the aftermath and see if you can make results of your own. So, we have:

A dead body with a coin in each eye, looks very gruesome and bloody.
A dead body with a spike in each eye, looks very gruesome and bloody.
A nearly-dead body, slowly hobbling away and muttering to themselves about how annoying it is to kill people. 
A very alive Court Fool, currently writing to you about writing to you.

And that’s all you really need to know, for the most part. I could describe why it all went down in the toilet, or which currency the coin is from but that all sounds like a bit too much effort to me, if you catch my coins. Anyway, I currently have to deal with a rebellion in some other corner of the now-defunct Empire, so I will have to catch you later. 

Enjoy The Puzzle!
The Court Exterminator

A player was converted using UberBronze!

UberBronze - You have a choice. Either you may target a single player and learn their role, regardless of whether they are protected by a Smoker, or you may sense more generally and discover what actions were used and how many of each (not including those clouded by Smokers).

A player snapped!

Aonar Faileas died! He was a Village Coinshot.

Araris Valerian died! He was a Village Rioter

 

Tineye message:

 

There is no Heaven* or Hell** in this endless Cycle of Death. No matter what you do while you're Alive, everybody goes to the same Document once you Die****. Death is Equal in Sparta. 

*To await the rising of the sun.

**Now he is dead, and I am off to bed,

***Soon his burial will come.

****Brothers and sisters I had one.

*****All I wished for is a "well done" he said.

Player List
1. Arinian - Alrin
2. Hemalurgic Headshot - Quinn
3. Jondesu - Remart - Spiked Coppercloud
4. Elenion - Roger Elariel
5. Drake Marshall - Serray - Regular Crewmember
6. Darkness Ascendant - The Phantom Stranger
7. Randuir - Magister Agemtsar
8. Magestar - David Agemtsar
9. Herowannabe - Herwynbe
10. Yitzi2 - Garshin
11. Metacognition - Village Pewterarm
12. Silverblade5 - Ryth
13: Arraenae - Rhea
14. TheMightyLopen - Sidon
15. little wilson - Willie Klara
16. Droughtbringer - You  - Regular Crewmember
17. Iamspartacus - Astrid the Bold
18. Ornstein - Winkleton - Regular Crewmember
19. Araris Valerian - Wol Village Rioter
20. Dalinar Kholin - Lebochevkowski - Village Coppercloud
21. OmeGaster - Rieyun
22. Kipper - Elenion - Pewterarm
23. Sart - Gaetan - Regular Crewmember
24. Bugsy - Jelwynd
25. Figberts - Quond
26. Mark IV - The Follower
27. Manukos - Reval
28. Aonar Faileas - Vana Izenry Village Coinshot]
29. Ecthelion - Amnar - Village Pewterarm
30. Amanuensis - Mykal - Village Smoker

[Elenion]

Last lynch, Araris' vote was gone and mine was moved to myself. Unless we have a very good reason to think otherwise, it's obvious that Araris Rioted my vote, canceling his own in the process. But then @little wilsonwho did you Soothe?

With the deaths last night, I think it's safe to assume that there's a leak in our info pipeline. Was anyone still living in contact with either Araris or Aonar?

[Yitzi2]

19 left alive, now including 3 elims.  I will vote for Kipper, on the theory that a strong convert is happening next night anyway.

[Farnsworth]

Quond yelled, threw his hands up. Fine!  Kipper! Ask me if I care about who lives or dies! Lord Teikel will never die. It's all hopeless.

[TheMightyLopen]

Crap. This was always a danger, but from this point on, we're at a severe disadvantage. The Spiked might get 2 kills, and we'll only have the lynch. As such, EVERYBODY NEEDS TO BE ACTIVE IN THE LYNCH. Because we likely don't have another Coinshot, which means no more Night kills for us.

Len, as was stated multiple times last Night, Wilson Soothed Randuir, but he was apparently covered by a Smoker. I was hoping he'd be Coinshot, but apparently Aonar decided to go after Araris instead(I'm assuming he didn't kill himself ). As for whether there's a leak or not, I'm not so sure there was. The Inquisitor had Uber-Bronze after all, so they could have just scanned Aonar or figured it out some other indirect way. I would like to hear who knew of Aonar's ability though.

Figberts, why exactly are you voting for Kipper? Don't get me wrong, I'm glad you're voting, you just don't explain the vote at all. Unless it's just a bandwagon vote, but it's very early to be bandwagoning. What do you think of Randuir? He was Soothed but his vote didn't go away, meaning he was Smoked.

I could ask the same of Yitzi actually. There's not much risk in lynching Kipper, since the Inquisitor will almost definitely be going for a Coinshot next, but that's not exactly reason to lynch him. Are you voting on him because he survived the lynch once? If so, what do you think of the reasons Wilson laid out for why she thinks he's not the Inquisitor? And what do you think of Randuir?

At this point, we need to be very thorough to catch the Inquisitor and their converts. I don't think we can just let these kind of votes slide.

Before I vote, I'd like to hear why Rand wasn't Coinshot.

Praise the Ja!

Edited April 14, 2017 by TheMightyLopen

[little wilson]

I can guarantee that Aonar tried to attack Rand. He believed (and I concur with this) that there was a 60% chance Rand was the Inquisitor, 30% chance he was the convert, and 10% that he was being offensively smoked. Since the odds of Rand being offensively smoked were so low, Aonar wasn't about to be convinced by any argument Rand made because the facts told a different story. I also was distinctly unswayed by anything Rand said. I'm 99.9% sure that Rand is evil, and I'm 80% sure that Rand is the Inquisitor. Rand.

[Hemalurgic Headshot]

2 minutes ago, little wilson said:

I can guarantee that Aonar tried to attack Rand. He believed (and I concur with this) that there was a 60% chance Rand was the Inquisitor, 30% chance he was the convert, and 10% that he was being offensively smoked. Since the odds of Rand being offensively smoked were so low, Aonar wasn't about to be convinced by any argument Rand made because the facts told a different story. I also was distinctly unswayed by anything Rand said. I'm 99.9% sure that Rand is evil, and I'm 80% sure that Rand is the Inquisitor. Rand.

Had to read through that again to process it. So Aonar is Village, and reasoned that Rand is the Inquisitor or at least Spiked. Wilson, I am inclined to agree. For the reasons Wilson provided, I vote Rand.

[Yitzi2]

8 minutes ago, TheMightyLopen said:

Crap. This was always a danger, but from this point on, we're at a severe disadvantage. The Spiked might get 2 kills, and we'll only have the lynch. As such, EVERYBODY NEEDS TO BE ACTIVE IN THE LYNCH. Because we likely don't have another Coinshot, which means no more Night kills for us.

Len, as was stated multiple times last Night, Wilson Soothed Randuir, but he was apparently covered by a Smoker. I was hoping he'd be Coinshot, but apparently Aonar decided to go after Araris instead(I'm assuming he didn't kill himself ). As for whether there's a leak or not, I'm not so sure there was. The Inquisitor had Uber-Bronze after all, so they could have just scanned Aonar or figured it out some other indirect way. I would like to hear who knew of Aonar's ability though.

Figberts, why exactly are you voting for Kipper? Don't get me wrong, I'm glad you're voting, you just don't explain the vote at all. Unless it's just a bandwagon vote, but it's very early to be bandwagoning. What do you think of Randuir? He was Soothed but his vote didn't go away, meaning he was Smoked.

I could ask the same of Yitzi actually. There's not much risk in lynching Kipper, since the Inquisitor will almost definitely be going for a Coinshot next, but that's not exactly reason to lynch him. Are you voting on him because he survived the lynch once? If so, what do you think of the reasons Wilson laid out for why she thinks he's not the Inquisitor? And what do you think of Randuir?

Wilson's arguments against Kipper being the inquisitor are based on personality reads, and I'm not sure how much stock to put in those.  There's also the fact that, even if innocent, he's somewhat of a liability because he's a thug that can be used for a conversion later if not killed now.

That said, Rand has seemed somewhat suspicious, so in lights of the votes by others, perhaps he is a better choice.  Kipper Randuir

[TheMightyLopen]

29 minutes ago, little wilson said:

I can guarantee that Aonar tried to attack Rand. He believed (and I concur with this) that there was a 60% chance Rand was the Inquisitor, 30% chance he was the convert, and 10% that he was being offensively smoked. Since the odds of Rand being offensively smoked were so low, Aonar wasn't about to be convinced by any argument Rand made because the facts told a different story. I also was distinctly unswayed by anything Rand said. I'm 99.9% sure that Rand is evil, and I'm 80% sure that Rand is the Inquisitor. Rand.

Interesting. I didn't think you or Aonar would have left him alone like that. But there wasn't any failed attack, on a thug type role or blocked by a Lurcher. Does this mean the Inquisitor has some sort of redirect power? Maybe Uber-Zinc? Regardless, Rand.

Considering it's unlikely the lynch will land on anyone besides Rand, we should still keep discussion going. Like I've asked before, the fact that someone Snapped likely means the converted player was a Misting. The new Misting has around a 78% chance of being the converted players previous role(I think that was the number). Meaning if we could somehow get the Snapped players role, we can investigate the other players with that role. Newly Snapped player, would you mind telling one or 2 players your new role, so we can use this information to help narrow the targets for the new conversion? (Hopefully the new Snapped is active... >.<)

Praise the Ja!

Edited April 14, 2017 by TheMightyLopen

[Arrae]

I'm pretty sure Randuir is an elim. As Wilson said, Last Saturday he PMed me and requested that if I was part of the Tineye trust group, I should ask for Wilson get Seeked. I denied being part of the Tineye trust group, and he said that he'd asked one or two other players the same thing. Looking back, it seems like an elim trying to cast suspicion on her.

Last cycle, I told Rand that I actually was part of the Tineye trust group and that I'd ask for the Tineye to ask the Seeker to scan him. I'm confident that's why Randuir was Smoked last cycle. Obviously, he couldn't exactly let a Seeker scan him, so he got smoked and Wilson's (lack of) vote manipulation caught him instead.

[Herowannabe]

So I'm a little late to the party, but yeah, I can confirm that Aonar was going to attack Rand last night. 

Here's what I think happened:

The cycle before last night, the Inquisitor used uberbronze to scan Aonar and found out he was the coinshot. 

Last night, Wilson mentioned in the thread that the coinshot was going to attack Rand that night. 

The Inquisitor obviously has some sort of redirection power. I'm guessing: UberIron: Each night you may pick one player to protect and one to target. If the protected player is attacked, the attack is redirected to the target player. 

The inquisitor used UberIron to redirect the kill from Rand to Aonar. Or to Araris. Whatever. Either way, the eliminators essentially got two kills last night because they knew who to uber-Lurch. 

As such, there is a small chance that the eliminators are trying to get us to mis-lynch Rand. But I doubt it, I'm also of the opinion that Randuir is evil. 

 

There is one good thing that came from last night. 

Before I say what it is, let me just go ahead and say that I did not get converted. I don't say this to try to persuade anyone that I'm innocent. Right now there are 4 players who know I'm innocent: The Inquisitor, two converts, and me. It's to them that I'm talking right now. 

To Team Evil: Guess what? I didn't lurch myself last night. Yep, you totally could have killed me, but you missed your chance. Tonight and from now on I'll be back to protecting myself. Probably. But maybe not. Maybe you'll be able to kill me after all. Why don't you give it a try?

The one good thing that came from last night: a chance to troll the eliminators.

[Elenion]

I second what Lopen said: all Snapped players, please PM a mostly-cleared player (not me, please) with what you Snapped into. That way, we know the previous role of the convert, and we can match it against current roleclaims.

To bandwagon or not to bandwagon, that is the question. Eh, Wilson says she's 99.9% sure Rand is evil, and you never know what kind of skullduggery the Inquisitor's got up his sleeve. Ising the voting on Rand. If this is an elim trap, it's an excellent one.

[DeTess]

I don't see how me apparently getting protected (and the lack of game-messages(x got attacked but survived) about that strikes me as interesting), proves me evil. If they have a power that allows them to redirect attacks, as Hero thinks, then they would of course have used it on the incredibly obvious target. We should all be looking for someone that purposefully and publicly tried to get the coinshot to attack a specific target in previous nights.

[TheMightyLopen]

14 hours ago, randuir said:

I don't see how me apparently getting protected (and the lack of game-messages(x got attacked but survived) about that strikes me as interesting), proves me evil. If they have a power that allows them to redirect attacks, as Hero thinks, then they would of course have used it on the incredibly obvious target. We should all be looking for someone that purposefully and publicly tried to get the coinshot to attack a specific target in previous nights.

I don't see that reasoning being used as evidence to prove you're an elim anywhere, except maybe by HH. The main piece of evidence in my mind is that you were Smoked last Cycle. That, and because most of your reads are "Neutral" when there's only ever been 2 or 3 Spiked compared to over 20 villagers(I know Wilson said this last Night, but we were both talking about this in our PM, so I'm not just copying her words, she was sorta copying mine ). The fact that you wanted Wilson to be Seeked could also be used against you, even if your reasoning for it wasn't bad, because the fact remains that she was village then, meaning you might have seen a chance to ask for a scan to be wasted on a villager without getting yourself any suspicion from it. By itself, I wouldn't say it's enough to warrant a lynch, but combined with the other points against you, well, it doesn't make you look any better at least. I think you're right that the redirected attack isn't alignment indicative, because if you're village, we'll waste this lynch on you, and if you're Spiked, your death is delayed. But I haven't seen anything from you that makes me believe you're village, so you're my best lead by a large margin.

Praise the Ja!

Edited April 14, 2017 by TheMightyLopen

[Herowannabe]

5 hours ago, randuir said:

I don't see how me apparently getting protected (and the lack of game-messages(x got attacked but survived) about that strikes me as interesting), proves me evil. If they have a power that allows them to redirect attacks, as Hero thinks, then they would of course have used it on the incredibly obvious target. We should all be looking for someone that purposefully and publicly tried to get the coinshot to attack a specific target in previous nights.

Honestly, while I am suspicious of you the main reason I'm voting for you is that we gain far more information by lynching you than we do by lynching anybody else. Among other things, we learn whether or not the Spiked are engaging in offensive smoking and whether they wanted to cast suspicion on you or genuinely wanted to protect you last night. Either way gives us some major clues as to where the other Spiked are hiding. 

[OmeGaster]

The Ja hath frowned on all of us this week, so I shall be hopeful that you guys are correct in the assumption of Rand.

[DeTess]

7 hours ago, Herowannabe said:

Honestly, while I am suspicious of you the main reason I'm voting for you is that we gain far more information by lynching you than we do by lynching anybody else. Among other things, we learn whether or not the Spiked are engaging in offensive smoking and whether they wanted to cast suspicion on you or genuinely wanted to protect you last night. Either way gives us some major clues as to where the other Spiked are hiding. 

I wish I didn't agree with you on this. I'll be travelling much of tomorrow, so I probably won't have time to find someone who's death will give more information. So, for now, High Lord Randuir, first of his name.

Now in the first 24 hours of this cycle, there have been 9 votes on me, and 1 on Kipper. At this point, only slightly more than half of he players have voted. Of those, less than 70% have said anything else apart from that vote. So let me reiterate Lopen's point: Just because I'm going to get lynched with a landslide majority doesn't mean all discussion should stop. Instead, start discussing who else you guys are suspicious of. @Kipper, @Magestar, @Silverblade5, @Darkness Ascendant, @Mark IV, @Bugsy6912, @Manukos, @Iamspartacus, @Arinian, is there anything you people would like to add? Any suspicions you believe need to be shared, or votes you want to place? I've been properly bandwagoned to death, so if there are any other suspicions you want to vote on, now would be an excellent time to do so.

My alignment might  be an important clue in figuring out who might be evil, but that is no reason not to get discussing now. In fact, if Wilson is to be believed, I am the inquisitor, which would mean I won't just survive this lynch, but also the next. Are you all planning to just log on at the start of the day, vote on me, then log off again for the rest of the cycle if that eventuality occurs?

 

Edit: also, for the tin-eye cabal, maybe it might be a good idea to share your list of seeker-cleared people sometime soon? This might help in figuring out who could be the inquisitor or his converts. If nothing else, that information should have some positive effect on the activity of non-members, as it gives them some information to work with and base suspicions on.

Edited April 14, 2017 by randuir

[Yitzi2]

I find it interesting that nobody on the elim side has tried to take out Wilson, despite her being so vocal and pivotal.  I'm wondering if she's been converted recently (or is planned for the next conversion).

[TheMightyLopen]

20 minutes ago, Yitzi2 said:

I find it interesting that nobody on the elim side has tried to take out Wilson, despite her being so vocal and pivotal.  I'm wondering if she's been converted recently (or is planned for the next conversion).

I could see a few things stopping them from converting her or attacking her so far. For one, she's a Misting out in the open, meaning if they converted her, it's very possible someone would Snap with her same power when they converted her, making it fairly obvious she'd been converted. Add to that that she'd have to somehow keep up the appearance of being able to Soothe, and the risk of converting her gets even higher. As for why she hasn't been attacked yet, I imagine it's because the Spiked are worried she'll be protected. Everyone knows that the Inquisitor wants to kill Mistings to be able to convert more players, and she's publicly known as one. Now, since she's found out at least one Spiked, there's an even higher chance of her being protected.

Despite all of that, I do think we should stay watchful of her, considering the amount of influence she has at this point, so it's probably a good idea to bring that up occasionally.

Praise the Ja!

Edited April 14, 2017 by TheMightyLopen

[Darkness Ascendant]

Please stop tagging me >>

[Silverblade5]

Theory on the message in the writeup: There's no spec doc. The dead and the specs share the same doc.